 Okay, very good morning. It's Tuesday the 17th of August. Hope you're doing well Going to get you up to speed on the clothes on Wall Street where we saw another Consecutive the fifth in a row in fact record clothes on the S&P and the Dow last night The SP finished up a quarter percent the Dow about point three the Nasdaq a slight laggard Basically flat on the clothes and as you can see to the side of me here This is a graphic of the S&P 500 and it has now extended its surge from the March 23rd Bottom that we saw on the initial onset of the global pandemic last year to where we closed yesterday a 100% gain from that low so fairly symbolic there overall and one thing I would say straight at the get-go in this briefing Is that it wouldn't surprise me at all? If at some point in the coming sessions or weeks that we see quite a significant singular down day and people will be Very nervous about what that means and you'll get very much a spun narrative about You know the bubble finally popping and these sorts of things, but honestly, I think that It's probably be a healthy if there is some type of Pullback at some point in the future. We have seen things like the VIX for example I've been tracking at particularly low levels although options on the VIX would suggest that People are positioned themselves for that day to come in due course. So Again, just to be clear when the market tends to have these particularly narrow low volume Ranges and we grind out fresh highs and we see consecutive higher prints then at some point or another we get quite a You know stairs up elevator down syndrome and and that probably is coming at some point But it doesn't detract from the fact that We'll probably continue on the on the path that we have done going forward but a couple of things then to be aware of because Talking then an extension through into the Asia pack session things certainly not quite so positive and Actually shares below in Australia Hong Kong China overnight a few things to be aware of From an overall top level in China in particular We've seen some economic data obviously yesterday, which would constitute a slowing in the momentum of their economic recovery We've also seen overnight this story, which is essentially Chinese market regulators issuing draft rules overnight aimed at stopping unfair competition on the internet So just firm further formalization of some of that The catalyst that mean causing negative volatility or negative stock price movement, particularly in tech sector In mainland China and Hong Kong listed shares. So 10 cent was down three and a half percent Yes overnight Alibaba as well was down about two and a half percent And then you've also got mobility curbs to fight the Delta strain, which is souring the mood as well Overall in Asia. So we have had in the overnight session Japan their government confirmed they're going to seek to extend the coronavirus emergency in Tokyo through to the 12th of September And would extend it in seven other additional prefectures And we've had also had similar news out of Australia, which I'll touch upon with the RBA minutes in a moment But otherwise elsewhere another thing that you might have read is China's military Have said it launched exercises and air and sea near Taiwan These were live fire military drills and this in response to external interference and provocations by Taiwan's Independence forces and this comes of course after the US was selling arms to Taiwan of which then Has conflict with China on the sovereignty of that particular Region and so there's a couple things that are going on and that means in terms of the mood this morning at the European Open fairly quiet, however After that pretty spectacular recovery from the initial selling pressure that we saw in US equities from the Nizi Open yesterday pretty rallied all the way through into the close So bit of a fade then from that in the overnight session, which I don't think is too untoward So the S&P NASDAQ future is seeing a little bit lower and the DAX future in step following that General pattern the DAX future short term probably worth just keeping half an eye on this level here in the futures at 15 848 just coming close to to that at the moment Which is the lower bound of the trading range that was seen from yesterday's session Any breakdown of there given the way that the DAX tends to move could see quite a quick spillover down toward 15804 which was also the S2 on the daily pivots So worth just keeping a half an eye there on the DAX otherwise elsewhere the tenure up marginally three and a half ticks Gold has seen a bit of a decent breakout this morning breaking out of the late US session and Asia pack range It's contributed to a bit of a pop hire. This is irrespective of dollar movement So much more of a technical catalyst for that explanation behind the gold pop this morning and on the daily chart for gold I think we're at a really interesting point here So this level here if I just quickly mark it up once again So those highs that we're seeing in mid-June Support levels through much of the month of July We saw the breakdown of course on the bed and expected NFP that we had back on the 6th of the month And we're right back up to test on that that key area again at 17 kind of 91 in the futures So I think the daily close here will be important for the balls to push back up north of 1800 and to bring about again the prospects of moves towards kind of 18 25 30 on the upside Which would be these highs previously seen last month or closed below to keep us perhaps in a bit of consolidation between this 1791 and 75 level In this area here. So definitely quite keen to watch that throughout the rest of the session Other things to be aware of though in terms of the news and we have had in the overnight session the RBA minutes The Aussie dollar did weaken in overnight trades down about 32 pips in the futures market this morning The bank said it will continue to review its bond buying program based on economic conditions and the health situation as the nation faces Lockdowns to combat the Delta variant of Coronavirus The board considered the case for delaying the tapering of bond purchases to four billion Aussie dollars a week currently scheduled for September And as such then the combination really of the fact that the COVID situation is deteriorating and they're putting then the weighted bias on their decision making on that As one of the preconditions and then also the fact that they consider the delaying tapering explains why the Aussie's had touched off to this morning As I said Australia as well tackling its own COVID situation COVID-19 cases are set to rise substantially in Sydney in the coming weeks despite a prolonged prolonged lockdown That was according to authorities in a statement released overnight. They've warned that soaring infections could already put hospitals under enormous strain going forward Elsewhere just briefly latest fed comment coming out at Eric Rosengren who is I must just state a non-voter He said he would be supportive announcing another start to tapering in September conditional then if the US gets another strong labor market report That labor market report of course coming in just around two weeks time now And then jumping over to vaccines something to be aware of is that Pfizer and BioNTech have submitted early stage data To US regulators showing that a third dose of COVID-19 vaccine led to higher levels of protective antibodies when given eight to nine months after the initial regime The companies expect results from a larger final stage trial evaluating the effects of the third booster dose shortly No set timing, but sign to just be aware of and this also leads us into then this idea of boosters the US strategic plan According to sources familiar with the discussions the Biden administration plans to begin administering COVID-19 Booster shots to Americans as early as mid or late September pending authorization authorization from the US FDA So pretty similar timing. So we've heard here in the UK as well Looking further forward then in terms of the actual schedule for the rest of today There's quite a few things to be aware of we already had the UK data But it's really had a very much a zero effect on the British pound nothing really too exciting there The ILO unemployment rate came in point one learned expected at 4.7 percent average earnings ex bonus 7.4 percent in line with expectations So moving kind of swiftly on then 10 o'clock We get the Eurozone Q2 flash GDP estimate and the employment figures as well And then the focal point will be on US retail sales, which will get a 130 industrial production at 215 NAHB housing market index at 3 in the weekly API of entries at 9 30 this evening as far as US retail sales are concerned the month-to-month expected at minus 0.2 percent as you can see here, which would be an about turn from the prior plus at 0.6 Supply chain issues in the auto sector is said to be weighing on vehicle sales Will be a main culprit for potential downside However, the core measure is expected to have risen by plus 0.2 percent if you strip out then the auto component Analysts at RBC had noted that the month started out strong in terms of this is a measure of July But they've seen high frequency credit card data showing that spending had slowed towards the end of the month of July in itself So they're keeping an eye out for that as ever Just be mindful of the range of the data and any revisions to the prior month's figures as well For the industrial production figure Spends at 0.5 percent should post a decent increase with a manufacturing likely rebounding after the general Decline that was seen in June according to analysts at ING They also note though that supply chain issues will continue to exert a strong headwind though for growth in that Particular sector for the time being albeit we are looking for a positive number today Overall as far as these numbers are concerned Do I think it's gonna be a game-changer in terms of the moving the needle for tapering probably not But nonetheless, I'd definitely be keeping a close eye out for 130 for those numbers when they hit other things to be aware of and you have got Fed Chair Jerome Powell is speaking today, but off topic Speaking on the Fed's work and economic education at a town hall meeting So not expecting anything explicit on policy And I very much expect that to be a case given the fact that he's going to be queuing up now and pretty much keeping a Tight lip until we get to the Jackson Hole Symposium in around two weeks time at the end of the month Dove and non-voter Kashkari is going to be speaking at 845 London Times seeing so just before the close on the NISI but again very much expecting the opposite of what we've heard from some of the more hawkish comments about September kind of approval of tapering and so on And then from an earnings perspective It's probably worth bearing in mind that Walmart and Home Depot do report today pre-market Home Depot at 11 a.m Walmart to follow up an hour later midday if you combine those two companies they They contribute around 9% of the overall index weighting of the Dow Jones industrial average So definitely worth keeping an eye on them and just to generally see how well the Brick and mortar retailers are performing at this point in time And then from a supply point of view in fixed income a few things to be aware of you've got some German Shats auction longer dated guilt auction And that pretty much wraps things up So pretty short and sweet, but I hope that was helpful as ever You can refer to my more in-depth full notes on my Twitter handle Otherwise, I wish you a good day ahead. Take care