 The following is a presentation of TFNN, the Tiger Technician Hour with your host, Hazel Chapman. Call now. Call free at 1-877-927-6648. Good morning, everyone. How's this happening? Yeah, this is the Tiger Technicians Hour and I had a question I'm going to go right to it at this moment. Could I look at the VBK? That's the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF. Had a really spectacular move, let's just go through this now in the weekly chart going from a low in the 190s to a high just above 245, then it pulled back to the 220 level and now it's trading at 239 up 83 cents. So keep your eye on this right channel, on this right side chart, that's the monthly chart of the Vanguard Small Cap Growth ETF, VBK is a symbol trading at 239.60 up 83 cents. Have a look at this chart right now. This is the IWM, I Shares Russell 2000. You can see that they make similar, but the VBK is actually a little bit stronger. It did not take out that left side load. Let's just do that again, VBK, workers making higher lows and higher highs and it's gone to a leg D. So you can see that that was a peak, I'm not calling it a C minus right now, but it has failed, hasn't taken out the left side load that was way back in the 120s from March of 2020, but we have got a buy signal that's gone to a buy mode. Now I'm putting all the same, it's historic, so I can never be wrong. Look, I put the lower, I choose the lowest low, that's what you do in the Chapman Methodology, when it's in real time, it's not quite so easy. I mean, we've been trying to do that lately. Some of it's worked, some of it has to be tried twice before it really works. And there we are. The rectangle is really a rising channel, which could become Chapman Wave falling exformation if it fails at the dreaded age, takes out the left side load. So far it's acting quite well. So yes, I like it. Now if you, I'm sure the person asking me has already started a position. The question is, where do you add, let me just have a drink of tea. Where would you add? So that's really a very important question, because there's a pattern that I call the dreaded age pattern, where it takes out the left side load, comes down quite sharply, let me see if I can find one right here. It comes down quite sharply, and then, there we go. So this is the age pattern. I always think that markets are made up of three patterns, straight line up, straight line down, cup formation could be a V, but it's a cup formation going from one point down and then back to that point, or an arch going from one point up to the high and then turning down, and it's either an inverted V or an arch formation, and then you get what happens next when you put the two together. In this case, it's one and three, straight line down and an arch formation. If it takes out that left side load within two bars, sometimes I'll say three bars, but it's really, I prefer two bars. If it can close above the left side load, that's a save. If it goes and starts to move sharply below, you can even get a one-to-one of the arch formation from the load down to the bottom. Well, in fact, yes, you're dreaded age, it usually fails at a peak A or a peak B. In this case, it went to a peak B, or it used to count each higher peak, and you label them alphabetically, and there it is. And then what happens, this becomes a very bullish pattern, where the lower case age gets saved because the technicals have turned around very sharply, and the price moves up and it closes. I usually say for two bars out of three, but it's really important that it closes above the left side arch. Well, this is a second session above it, so it's very important. And the way I'm looking at this, there's a chance that this is going to make the U-turn so that the cup formation says that you can start to see a move to the upside, and now I'll do the measured move from the left side to the right side, Chapman-Method was a Chapman-Method two bar reversal, right at the top of this recent rally, and now you've got left side going to the arch high, right side make a green. Now you don't have to have all these tools, you could just use a line and make the one thick and the one thin, or one straight and one dashed, straight but dashed. And this says that by the 30th of January, there should be an attempt to get to the high, a little double top high, 246.18 to 246.15, that's a Chapman-Method two bar reversal right there. It's usually a good sign to say, watch out to get yourself a reversal of the downside, and lo and behold, what do we have? We have the chance that, now what I like to do is to do a Chapman-Method inside wedge target repellence line, so I'm doing that, doing that, but all of this is all in my notes that I have in all my webinars, that if you're a subscriber you can check them out, go through more, you can become a subscriber, get my work with 29 days or 30 days for free, and then cancel, and you can get everything. Yes, that's the way it is. So this is now a move that says the next resistance will be, if it's today, it's at 241 in the 241s, if it's tomorrow it'll go to the 240, 250 area, so that's your inside wedge magnet target resistance line, and if it starts to fade, you've got good support right here on the 9-speed moving average of 236, so you're at 239.83, yes, so I would say in your case, you probably already have a position, in your case I would say add, why? Because this you can monitor, I would have a very tight stop the load today is at 239s, it's trading at 239.83, the load is 239.44, you can go in right here at 240.0, as we were speaking it just popped up, 240.18 as you add on, but this one I would have, I'd have a stop of 1%, maybe even less, and I have it as a training stop and just let it take you to wherever it's going to go, that's the way, and it is a peak C in the weekly chart and it should go to be a leg D above 246.18, here it's the same time that we're talking about going into, is that next week? Don't tell me we've already almost wrapped up January, today is the 23rd, oh we've got a whole week, we've got a week, Wednesday is the end of the month, okay, very good, yeah, so that's the way it's looking right now, just short term I'm saying be a little careful, we've got some kind of a digestive phase, but now it's the individual stocks and that's the reason why, for subscribers to my opening call, now I'm not interested in the price, usually I say we'll mix between high price, this is not overvalued, it's just a high price stock and high price stock can actually be undervalued, low value, it doesn't matter, but it's high price stock or very low price, maybe single digit stocks of which we have a couple, now the most important thing here is that I want to see, oh I haven't even done the overview yet, so the overview says I'm watching the financials closely, why? Oh look, the monthly chart of the XLF, which is there to be select financial spider fund, almost looks like the one we were looking at here, look, here's the right side, that happens to be a monthly chart, charts don't know whether they are one minute charts or monthly charts, they just do their thing and they fractals of human nature, so they're always going to do almost the same thing that a monthly chart would do, just in a longer time frame, what would you be looking at here, what would you be looking at, what's that, Vanguard, FB, F... If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try, Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. 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Can you please check near-term direction for CFLT? So CFLT, you see this is the E-mini at yesterday from one o'clock. Look, actually I could go back. I happened to choose this when I was doing my analysis. I certainly could have gone back. The narrow rectangle, I have a whole, not just one, I have a bunch of webinars where I talk about the large rectangle and the narrow rectangle. So the way I was looking at this this morning is I did my analysis continuing from yesterday afternoon. Look how you can get trapped. In a short-term position, if you're stuck, if the chart actually says, do you look, open your eyes, I am stuck in a narrow rectangle pattern and the border on the upside retains the price. You cannot break out. Every time you think it's going to break out, it doesn't break out. And then on the downside, every time you think it's going to break down, it doesn't, and it stays like a little worm in a tube, a little glass tube that you can watch, just stuck going up and down and up and down. But I always do my Chapman wave notation from the most important low that was made. And from this low, look what happened. It went to peak A, peak B, then it pulls back and that B was really just stuck in the rectangle from previous. But this is a 10-minute E-mini chart. Then what it does, it pulls back and then I get a brand new, this is not the start. This is the start. So this is another peak A, peak B, peak C, then it goes to D and E. It doesn't break out. This is at 11 o'clock last night. So I just wrapped everything up. I said, I'm not doing anything. I'm watching it. I suspect that it's going to eventually break to the upside for a little bit, go to a D or an E and then pull back and then the midpoint channel line, the horizontal channel line, it's going to be absolutely imperative to hold. So where are we? Pulls back, goes to a second E. And what we're doing in the Chapman wave is identifying and notating alphabetically A, B, C, D, E, F, G, there's never an H to the upside. Then it pulls back and does another one, peak A, peak A, B, C. And lo and behold, it goes to a D this morning at about 8.30 or whatever that was. That was 8.40, I think it was, I'll tell you right now, at 8.50. And then what does it do? It pulls back. So I had drawn in and I didn't make it thick because I just said, to me, it's not the most important horizontal line, the horizontal line at 47.89, sorry, 98 was really very important. But I'm going to make this as a potential. So now I'm going to make it thicker and I'm going to change the color, so style. Let's make it first weight, make it a little thicker. Just for the moment, I don't like to keep it this way. I'm going to make it pink and I'll make it a dash line because it's really not part of the usual vernacular. And what did it do? It pulled back, it touched the line, four out of the last five, 10-minute bars. And now it's trying to balance and a silver-green line being moving average, but I can see that it's getting real close to Jenny Pig, but it hasn't. So you can't over anticipate. And what is it? It has gone back to the rectangle resistance line, which is now like a little upper magnet line. So why did I do this? Because you just asked me about CFLT. And look at CFLT. There is your rectangle formation. It's trying to break out. It cannot. It's just for For 14 days, 14 sessions, I should say, it's been stuck in this pattern. If you look at the weekly with the pink 9-period moving average, there is nothing there. This is Confluent in A shares, real-time data streams, platform, event-driven. Sounds great. When I looked at this a little while back, I thought, oh, this is something to watch. Sounds kind of cool, doesn't it? Real-time? No. Look at the chart. The chart says, as an IPO back in 2021, screened up to the 90s, then plummeted down to the most recent low in the 14-15 area. And lo and behold, it's just kind of stuck there right now. It went to a peak D, remember peak Ds where other things can happen? Look at that peak D daily, peak D monthly, a weekly, monthly just went to a B and then failed and that's a B minus. So I'm just saying it's stuck. So the answer is near term, it looks like it's kind of weak and it looks like if it doesn't hold 20, if it doesn't hold this candle low from yesterday, the low of 21.79, there's a good chance it's going to test the low of 21.03, but that's your baseline 21 and it could keep going there and then pulling and then trying to balance. So I just see it as a note, very short term, if you had to go to the 120 minute chart, peak A, peak B, peak C, it's fading at a C. Yeah, near term, I think it's still going to pull back a little bit more. So yeah, be careful. That's all I'm going to say to you. The next question was, because I had a question right here, my emails, FXI, is it ready for a balance? Let me see, FXI, I'd say just be really, really careful. So today, where did it go? Let me just see if this is fitting the year. Yeah, so I don't know where I've got this Fermanace from, but the Fermanace level was hit exactly yesterday, right there, to 20.86. And then today, I believe China's having a nice balance, it's about time, right? Having a very strong balance of 4.3%, at 20.05. And so the question is, are you looking at this as a potential for a bounce? And I'd say, yeah, just an oversold, it could have another day or two. But if any time the next two days, it closes, no, it actually trades under 21.61, just be real careful. Let me hear just a little ping. And that's my engineer. Oh, we've got John in fully. John, how are you? That was a lot. Very good. Can you hear me? I certainly can hear you all out and clear, even though you're all the way down in Philadelphia. Well, I thank you for taking the call, Basil. Today, I'm calling to ask you if you can give a thorough description of your Chapman Wave charts and their counts, focusing upon the monthly, then the weekly, and least importantly, the daily on a homebuilder, that's D.H. Horton ticker, H.I. Each just parenthetically, Basil, I bought a couple of homebuilders and a homebuilding ETF. I bought it very well back in 2022 amidst the pullback and then I took profits way, way too early. So that's my background. I am flat. My question is clearly D.H. Horton and all the homebuilders are pulling back right now. I'm wondering from a long-term perspective how important this high is. Is this a major top according to the Chapman Wave? Okay, good question. And I don't know if you want to hold on, but I've got a bunch of things as I did some work on some of the homebuilders I was going to. I've got a written down that I wanted to work on it today to talk about. So I'll talk about it as soon as we return, dials down 75. We're on with Johnny Fully. We'll be back looking at homebuilders. Currencies, commodities and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the Forex markets every Monday using his 30-plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks and options. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com, then hit Watch Tiger TV. So folks, John and Flii asked me the question about EHI, that's DH4. It's a home builder, one of the really great home builders. You've got Rana, you've got Toll Brothers. This fits in that category, made it all. I believe I need to just check it out because in 2008 they had fantastic moves. Yeah, yeah, definitely an all-time eye. Wow, look at that. So DH4 and trading at $144 down $13.5, down 8.5%. So I've got this as of Tuesday, HDX, Toll, Len, Netflix, Microsoft, Matter, Apple, Tesla, and questions that have come into the den. I've got that written down as what I wanted to do. So he beat me to it because I had other questions which I went to straight away. Let me do this just real quickly. DH Horton was in leg D. The Chapman Way methodology D is where other things can happen. Look at that peak D right there back in, that was in early December, pulls back, and then from, sorry, November, and then look at the fantastic move that it's had from the 128 area up to the most recent time, the 157th area. So this is not a surprise to me at all. Why? Because what I wanted to start off the show with today was to talk about the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. Now isn't it just a really coincidental serendipity that we have a great trader and position player from Philadelphia? And we're looking at the Philadelphia Housing Sector Index. Now I've always wondered, is this the Philadelphia Index that uses the housing sector that's generic to the country? Or is it actually just Philadelphia? I think it's like the S&P Housing Sector. This is the Philadelphia Sector. So what I've drawn in a long time ago was that there was a technique that I call the Chapman Way. God, I wonder if I should ever take the time just to put all the different techniques that I developed over the years just into one very succinct package. That's what I think I will work on the next few months. Chapman Wave Overlapping Wave and Chapman Wave Cup and Ladle to Leg D. I typed that in way back at that peak B failure, way back in 2021. So in 2022, I looked at the pullback and I said, this should be a move that takes you to at least to see an overlapping wave that goes from peak B here and a peak B down there where that next leg up takes out the both of these and becomes a very powerful C which still should go to a leg D. Now we've got a doji potential candle in the monthly chart. We've got a doji candle in the weekly chart. Sorry, we've got a leg D in the in the weekly chart. We've still got days and days to go to Friday's four o'clock close. Where it closes with a stochastic and leg D in the 9p moving average very strong is a big question. I think this is a short-term topping motion at a peak D and the HGX. Why did I do that? Because look at Lenard Corporation A housing did exactly the same thing, but it didn't do an overlapping wave. We did a proper peak D once back in 2021 pulls back sharply. Now it's gone to a leg D with a chance that in January we actually make a peak D. But the question comes up. Is this really a B in the weekly chart or is it maybe an alternate count where it's an F? And I'm just saying I'm treating it as a B right now. The technicals are still good. And look at the daily chart which went to a peak D. This is Lenard LEN. This is a symbol in 156.01 on the 15th of November. And all the tops that have been made three, four times since then have failed by pennies, but have failed to break that peak D. So it's in the rectangle formation and it's stuck. Question came in DHI. Now if you look at this chart, they all look kind of similar in the leg D's in the monthly chart. This is a leg D in the weekly chart. A peak D, there's no way that it's going to take out yesterday's high. It had a high today of a round number 151. But yesterday's high was in fact 157.83. I'm looking for any round numbers there. No, today's a round number. So I'm making it real clear. Two closes above 153 in the next two weeks in DH Horton says, whoa, be careful, you're going to retest the high which is the 157th. Number one. Number two, we've taken out any base of support. We've actually closed at this point we've gone underneath the gap. Now the question is for John, I believe, is this a much more serious top or is it just a kind of a consolidation? So I like to go step by step. I'm not even going to be able to talk about the monthly chart because it is technically very strong. Even though the stochastic is lower than it was at that peak C, it is still at 81%. Look at this. Look at the MACD stochastic, et cetera. On balance of one, the blue line is very weak, but the stochastic at 92% in the weekly and the MACD so strong as Elizabeth, you can see the histogram started to pull back, but the price has held really well. That's number one. Number two is the nine period. It just hit the nine period moving average in one session and went whoops from the upside and around to the bottom and that's the support. The next support is at 139. That daily chart says this is the start of a move that should get you into the candles in the 130s, all these little candles. And whether or not it's a follow through and remember I said today to subscribers, be careful, although we've got, we added long positions. They're under the radar, I think, long positions. And so I'm looking at this and saying rotational correction unfolding as we speak in different sectors. So most importantly, what I'm looking at here is that I would, and I can't remember now if John said he's actually taken some money off. I know he said he did get out early, but I don't know if he's still got any possessions there. I would suggest on a very short term basis, if you're looking to buy the home builders, and I have to tell you, I'm going to go off subject just for a moment, because I'm going off subject, but I really have a feeling that a lot of people around the country are just asking the same question that I'm asking. Is it even possible that the home builders are not actually making a big topping formation, but in fact, setting up for even higher prices? And when I see a city after city, state after the state, starting to talk about rent control, you just go back in history, and you'll see that rent control almost always comes in as there's a major topping formation in the home builders of any particular city or town, and that there's going to be some pretty decent pullback. So that's talk. Talk and action are two different things with some, especially here in Massachusetts, especially in the areas where I am, like I live in Newton, Massachusetts. So it's just a matter of time before they start talking about that. They've already started talking about all sorts of things to limit the size of house, all sorts of things like that. So that's in the cars, and that's just, that's cyclical over the over a hundred years that just goes in and out of favor. But this is one of the biggest moves that we've seen. And now when I see that there is bidding for rent, I mean, we're not talking about the house. I want to pay more than the other person for rent, because I need somebody to say a lot of times people just do because they want to do, they don't have to move. So I need to talk about that in terms of what we're looking at. Is this looking at a major problem in the housing market? Or is it just cyclical, just some kind of a flow of activity? And then we come back again, I'll be back in a moment. Are you ready to take your trading to the next level? Introducing Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights, your key to successful active trading. Tom O'Brien, renowned for his expertise in the financial markets, has designed Market Insights to be your daily guide to profitable trades. Tom publishes his daily Market Insights newsletter every market day before the market open, along with updates when warranted. Stay ahead of the game with Tom's real-time analysis and trade recommendations delivered straight to your inbox. Whether you're a seasoned trader or just starting out, Market Insights provides the edge you need to navigate the markets with confidence. Ready to join the ranks of successful traders? Head over to TFNN.com and subscribe to Market Insights today. Don't miss out on this opportunity to supercharge your trading results. Market Insights comes with a 30-day money back guarantee for all new subscribers, so you have nothing to risk. Don't miss out on this opportunity to revolutionize your trading game. Head over to TFNN.com right now to join the thousands of traders who have already experienced the power of Tom O'Brien's award-winning newsletter Market Insights firsthand. TFNN, educating investors. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold. Traded on the NYSE American NTSX under the symbol VGZ. Don, technically this should be A, B, C, and this should be leg D, but it made a lower low by two cents. I have to call this a C. What can I do? Add a peak A, B, C, and the A, B, alternate count G. Okay, G, C, and the D. So this is Bulda's first source. Now, one thing that's really important, and I was going to get to, I was beaten to it by who in the den? Dan in the den says, Dean Phillips Keeper's presidential platform element is the housing shortage, recently quoting a deficit of seven million units in the country. So let's just talk to that issue, because that in essence is saying, now, I have this whole thing in my head sitting there, I've got it all, I got all these, everything I wanted to talk about. But let me just do it in a different way. When people talk about housing prices and that people can't afford housing prices, the irony is that when prices finally come down, down, down, down, down, and people don't know it, but here in Newton, Massachusetts, in the last major market correction, the housing prices only came down to 10, 15%, and they can write back to all-time highs. Prices just out of sight. I mean, well, I'm living right now, just they're out of sight. So, and there are a lot of people like my wife and I, you know, basically empty nesters. And we've got this house, which is wonderful to have when everybody comes to visit, but most of the time we're not in every single room. Oh, I certainly go to a lot of rooms, I got a music room, I got all these different rooms. But that's not the issue. The issue is, where do I go? Do I sell this place and then play almost as much for a two-bedroom? I'm lucky if I can get a three-bedroom, read a three-bedroom with an office or a little room for whatever. And then you've got all those fees that you have to pay. That's the reason why there are fewer houses for sale. It's not because people don't want to move. It's because they basically are trapped. You're giving up fabulous capital gains of which you'd have to pay taxes on. And then you're going to something else that is, and if you want something at least with some space, you're trapped. That's on the one hand. Number two is, within the housing complex, when the market eventually takes a real dive. I don't mean just a little dive. I'm talking about a real dive and it's lost long enough that prices of everything keep coming down and down and down. And I was talking about Newton, Massachusetts, the Garden City. I've been long enough to see housing prices get cut in half. When I was looking back to move from my first house back in 1983 to move from one side of town to get closer to Turnpike, so my wife could get to work easier. I would go to someone knocking their door and they said, oh my God, thank God, I haven't seen anybody for a year. And I've looked at price. I looked at anything to Google in any way, but I would look at prices because I would keep the Boston Globe sales. I kept those newspapers. And I would see that a house in the same area had dropped 50%. But it's not the point. They hadn't seen anybody to come and even look at the house for months and months. That didn't happen in the last major pullback. So that's what I'm looking at. When does it happen? It happens when the economy just goes down the tube. Major, major. And the financials have this major crisis. So I still see that there's a chance that the housing market can hold well until we finally get that the bubble gets popped. So as far as I'm concerned, this is the start of a turn down. If you, and I almost did that for subscribers, I didn't do it. It's still time. I was thinking of putting on put positions on housing, different ones. I wasn't sure which and I thought about it. I just had a wait. I think maybe now for the shorter term, but I'm not in the, I'm not in the category right now of saying, oh, major housing bust. Because what would happen is that you would need to see the XLF. That's where you start to see the bubble burst. And that bubble hasn't burst. So this is just a correction. It could be quite severe correction. I don't know if we don't even know. What am I talking about correction? You're talking about what we're looking? HDI? No, DHI. DHI talking about a correction. It made it all the time high yesterday. It was like the VIX when the VIX was screaming recently higher when the market was almost at all time high. Some markets were at all time highs. That's not your big sell signal. The sell signal comes in when the VIX is still low down, but you've now pulled back 10% to 12% in the markets. So John, I hope I'm answering your question as clearly as I can to say, I believe that this is the start of at least a pullback. I haven't even got the pullback in the weekly because it's still in a leg D, but I would not be surprised if it is the arrow across the bow. This is the arrow across the bow. So what we're looking at is a start of something and we could still have that Coder phase that says, man, now we're going crazy. I don't go to banks and see people like I did in 2007, 2008, standing in the foyer of the bank with their papers. Everyone talking about real estate. I don't see that at all. I don't see that anywhere. I don't see it in the Bitcoin. Look, Bitcoin, I see a major sell signal in the daily chart, but the retail chart is still only a PE, monthly chart is still only a leg C. So the sell mode in the daily chart of Bitcoin, there's nothing that I'm listening to people talk about in terms of Tesla. Oh my God, Tesla. No, there's nothing in the fashion mode right now that I can tell that everybody's asking me about, nobody's asking me about anything here. Actually, one person talks to me occasionally about the banks. That's because, and he's just a regular, he just hardly ever watches the market. This is because he had George board JP Morgan sometime early last year and he said, I don't know, it's starting to go down. I said, look, it's one of the great banks. It should go back to where it was. I just have patience and low and behold, it made a new all time. Oh, let me talk about that. 172.96 in October, 2021 was the high. Again, cuts more than half. 101 is the low back in March of, was it March? Yeah, October of 2022. And low and behold, what was the high just about six days ago? 176.31. So it went above the previous slide by only four or five points or so. Look at that potential, potential short-term double top. Maybe we'll see because pulling back a little bit here. Yeah, I'm just saying, I'd be cautious at this particular point. $100 and oh, 36, we'll be back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Zen, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all Tigers and Tigresses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. 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So I would put it into the category of let's watch this and wait to see what happens because the housing sector, until the houses come back on the market, unlike people in my age group that want to sell, have somewhere to go and feel that that was cost effective, I think you've got a bit of a problem here. So with that said, I'll be back with Tom a little later on. Check out my opening call, we've got stocks that are actually holding pretty darn well right now. And we've got prices all over the show. Whatever price you want, keep running for seven cents. Okay, have a wonderful rest of the day. Thank you for Steve Rose and the rest of the gang and I will be back with Tom later in the afternoon.