 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, welcome to another edition of theAxisToTrader.com. A nightly wrap-up show of everybody is doing well. Good evening, good morning, good afternoon, depending where you are in the world. Thank you very much for joining us. If you are brand new to the channel, if you can kindly like, share, even subscribe, come aboard on a daily basis. We really appreciate it and get notified when we upload new content. So let's talk about the market. Last week, NASDAQ got hit for 3.2%. S&P got hit for 2.5%. Dow survived a little bit, if you can say that, 1.6%. The question was what was going to happen at the start of this week. Now we're kind of slowly but surely starting to get a little bit numb, a little bit more passive in absorbing information about the Middle East conflict. And like we said, even two weeks ago, eventually that is going to happen. That's exactly what's happening now. Because again, if you actually broke down headline by headline, it's actually horrific. And if this was the first two days, the market would just be literally going up and down, up and down, up and down. And I find that the action very, very orderly. They've been really respecting levels. And you can see here, just from the cues, you can see here, we lost a 50-day, we traded down to the 50-day EMA. We lost a 50-day EMA, traded down to the 100-day EMA. We lost a 100-day moving average. And if you guys remember, it started out very innocently. We lost to the 364 level. Then going into last week, we talked about the importance of 359. We lost 359. And going into today's session, we talked about there was a high probability that we were going to have a soft landing get to 351. That's exactly what happened, right? That's exactly what happened. That's what I mean. Somebody asked me on Twitter today, what do I mean by orderly? That's what I mean by orderly. Every single level is being respected, right? It's being respected, and orderly, they're coming down to each single level, respecting it, and kind of either bouncing or going through. And that's what we are seeing exactly. So if you watched the Weekend Update, we talked about a potential soft landing at 351. Look at today's low, 351, which is now the double bottom from the September lows. Again, we'll get to the significance in a second. When you look at the SPYs, not exactly the same story, right? We lost the 200-day moving average on Friday. And this is now the second close below the 200-day moving average in a row. That's not a good thing. Let's look at the IWM. The IWM has been everybody's favorite whipping boy. If you are a small cap or mid-cap trader and you fall into this category, you can see there has been no law for you for a very, very long time, going all the way back to the September when it lost a 50-day moving average. And it's not even come close to reclaiming it. The difference between the NASDAQ and a lot of the smaller venues. Again, IWM is just in the toilet. It's getting absolutely destroyed here. And not least, but not least, but not least, you have the diamonds, right? The diamonds cannot do anything. The Dow is down another 200 points today. Ever since we lost a 50-day moving average, it's been absolutely hell. And again, when you look at the market, you know, Main Street America calls the Dow Jones, the Dushel average, the market. We all know it's 30 stocks, right? 30 stocks can now comprise the market. S&P NASDAQ 100 is a bigger, broader view of what the market is. But for this point of conversation, the Dow Jones, again, cannot get out of its all way. And we are now looking at the diamonds. This 328th level is going to be kind of do or die for the next leg down. So where are we? Let's talk about, you know, let's talk about some names and we'll kind of get a reflection point of where we need. Number one, let's start off with the Qs, right? So the QQQs has done everything we talked about now in the last week. Every single level has been embraced. Every level has been tested. Every level has been broken. And now we have the ultimate, the absolute ultimate line in the sand. Guys, said and learned, it doesn't have to get there tomorrow. Like I always talk about the same thing with the video. We'll get to the video in a second. It doesn't have to get there tomorrow. It doesn't have to get there ever. But at least, like I say in every single video, be prepared. If you're not prepared for that level, you'll be always looking for that license plate of the truck they ran you over. Levels are there for a reason. Technical analysis works. It works incredibly well. And this is why we don't randomly buy or sell stocks. We wait for very, very specific channels and we wait for them to confirm. So write down this channel, okay? 351 is going to be the line in the sand. It's not room for interpretation. It's not an open forum to have a conversation with somebody else to debate. You're an idiot. No, you're an idiot. No, 351 is the line in the sand. That was the September lows. That is today's lows. And that was the only reason that we bounced it, right? So 351, line in the sand, any close below 351. And I give you my word, you're not going to want to be long out of the market at least that day when it finally loses 351. Because if you get, if you believe in orderly, right? Orderly, organic moves, then 351. And here is your next pot of gold. We're talking about 339, 337 on the cues. This could really start a violent cycle. Again, I'm not there to fear monger anybody. This is just the truth, right? Again, I trade from both sides of the market. I trade day by day. Everybody in the access to trade and platform, that's what we do. We trade from day to day, both sides of the market. Unfortunately, we can't control the market. We can't control the economy. We can only look for data, take control of that data and trade off that data. So 351 going forward is going to be a major, major level. And if you look at a lot of the names today, you'll get a sense of what's going on. Number one, although we did bounce, and it was a hell of a bounce, do not get me wrong. It was a hell of a bounce off that 351 level. If you look at the chart, what's the common denominator? What's been the common denominator since we gassed out at 373? We put in another lower high. So here's a high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high. Despite today's bounce, we put in another lower high. The previous day's high was 360. Today's high was 359. That is another lower high. So again, be very, very aware. Is it possible, like we say all the time, even the worst conditions is it possible to get one, two days of buying? Sure. Again, that's the whole point. In 2022, we had a bear market down 30%, right? We had two, three, four days of rally. So any potential multi-day bounce is what it is. But until they start taking out the previous day's highs and start building above those previous day's highs, these are all deemed, right? They're all deemed to be dead cab balances until we start reclaiming at least moderate major levels. So that's very important. Again, 351 in the cent. And if you look at the majority of stocks within that group, you'll notice exactly the same thing, right? We'll get to the pivots in a second. But look at Tesla, right? Look at Tesla. Tesla, we talked about, needed to reclaim back 3214. It tried that twice. They couldn't do it. What's the common denominator? High, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower high, lower low, right? Second close below the 200-day moving average. We saw today buyers come in for the November 190, 185, and 180 puts, guys. Again, this is just betting that's on the tape. You can see it for yourself. And again, the longer it stays below the 200-day moving average, the higher probability you're going to see lower prices. Again, is it possible tomorrow it reclaims Friday's channel and gives a one- or two-day bounce? Absolutely. I would actually like it. I would actually like it just because, again, you don't need a market to go straight down and straight up. You need some sort of, you know, you need some sort of rest. You need some sort of action sequences that are just digesting, and that's what it is. But again, you have to be prepared on both sides of the market. As of right now, we are closing for the second day below the 200-day moving average. Look at AMD, right? AMD could not rally at all. Here at least we saw some names try to at least put in a dead-cap balance. It couldn't do so. We talked about it over the weekend update. There was a little channel here. It traded back to the 200-day moving average. Again, that's going to be a major line in the sand. Look at a name like Amazon, right? Again, what's the common denominator? Lower highs, lower highs, lower lows. That's the whole point. So you kind of get a sense here. You kind of get a sense here. Look at Apple, right? Look at Apple. Same thing. Look at Apple. Lower lows, lower highs. And the only thing that saved Apple today was that 351 bounce. So the moral of the story is, yes, we're not in a swing trading permeable market. We're in a trading environment. We're in a very aggressive trading environment. This is an environment that if you don't know your levels, you're going to be fish food. It's just a reality. So it's very, very important that you knew that 351 was a major bounce area, right? It was a major support. There was probably going to test and probably going to be defending the first time around. That's what happened today. You have to know the dynamics of where the stocks are. The fact that we're continuously putting in lower highs and lower lows is the majority of the names, even on a dead cat bounce scenario is not a good thing, guys. So we have to, to the bull's sake, they need to start taking out at least a previous day's channel and start building there for at least a multiple day move up. But so far, we are not getting that. Maybe that changes tomorrow, right? Maybe changes tomorrow. I'll tell you nothing really big as far as earnings go. Tomorrow we have Google. We got Microsoft. We got Snapchat, which again, if you've watched Snapchat in the last several quarters, does it know it's dead, right? Like, right? Does it know it's dead? I haven't seen it beat a quarter for a very long time. So you got Google, Microsoft, Snapchat, and Texas Instruments. For tomorrow, maybe Google and Microsoft will say something positive that will get the bull's above Friday's channel. But again, we can't anticipate. We can't guess. We're not in the guessing business. We're in the collection of data business. Also, on the video, right? And the video today came out with news as we were talking about on the weekend video. We're watching this bottom channel. It got right to the bottom channel here. As you can see, it got right to the bottom channel. And they came out with some PC video game-based chip and blah, blah, blah. The stock went higher. We actually had to pivot to the upside again. We'll get to the pivots in a second. But again, we talked about this bottom channel here, right? On the weekend video, we continuously talk about this bottom channel. Because again, if this is a one- or two-day wonder and this thing starts getting below this bottom channel, it's going to be in trouble. So again, you have to know your level. So going into tomorrow, there are a couple of names that are watching for potential dead cat bounces. Definitely, definitely, definitely. But at the same time, we are wary of what's going on. The one name that continues to hold up very, very well is Netflix, right? Netflix has had a good earnings quarter and it's resting. That's the longer it sits above the 50-day moving average, the better. And you can see here now, this is day three. And what's good about this move here, this digestion move, it's coming in a high volume and then a lower high volume and then a lower high volume. Unlike stock price action, you want to see small volume on distribution. That means the sellers are getting comfortable. I have to assume again, again, we're just watching. We're just talking out loud. But I have to assume if there is a significant dead cat bounce in all of technology in the next couple of days, Netflix will eventually wake up. So because the fact that it remains, the fact that it will go long, build a base above the 50-day and the sellers are comfortable there, well, the next move up should be higher as well. So it's definitely a name we want to watch. I'm watching for the options market in this thing. I'm assuming by Wednesday, Thursday, if it hasn't sold off and given back the 50-day, it'll probably start to rev up. So I definitely want to keep an eye on Netflix for the next couple of days. The only thing that I will give the bulls a lot of credit today, this morning, we gapped down a lot. We gapped out a lot pre-market. Everything was down. To the bulls credit, they woke up. They started taking everything higher, grind it up, came back, tested the 351 level, held and attempted a dead cat bounce, again, only to get rejected back at lower highs. Going into tomorrow, again, be prepared on both sides. If you're not prepared on both sides, you're guessing. If you're guessing, you don't have an edge. If you don't have an edge, why trade, right? Why trade? Why put your hard-earned money on the table? If you're going to do something with no edge, better baseball game, go on DraftKings, right? Better baseball game. At least you'll get some DraftKings dollars that you could play for free at a certain event. But again, old jokes aside, you never want to enter a financial arena with your hard-earned money without an edge. And if you don't know which way the market's going, that's a problem, right? At least if you don't have an opinion based on technical analysis, which way the market's going, that's a problem. You need to understand the dynamics of the market, why it's going up macro, why it's going down macro, why it's going sideways, why it's negating good news, why it's negating bad news. When you get all that information, I promise you that's going to translate into making better, smarter, more fiscally sound decisions in your trading and you'll see it on your ledger. So let's talk about the channels today. You only needed one, right? You only needed one. We'll get to that in a second. We had, you know, so it was actually a pretty good solid day. A lot of things is not going to show up on the Twitter feed because a lot of things we had rejection plays. We had bounce plays. So really good, you know, an overall pretty good organic day. So I was watching Oracle $100, 66 level if it builds below can flush. Never got there. AMAT, we talked about in the video, not a big move, but AMAT 133 held three times if it builds below can flush. Only went down like a dollar and change in the morning. You could see it lost this level here when everything started rallying, it started waking up. But again, another example of, again, even though it attempted a deck cat bounce, it was only up 11 cents in the day, you can see another lower high from Friday's channels. Again, not a good thing. This is kind of the whole point. And NVIDIA got down to that 309, 409, 80s level held and had a really, really impressive rally. Guys, I am still watching. Is it possible NVIDIA has another update tomorrow? Yeah, but it's possible, right? Of course it's possible. I'm actually watching it for another move down, but I'm telling you, if this thing gets down to the bottom channel folks, set an alert, because if it gets down to the bottom channel, we'll see, right? We shall see, said the blind man. Land research, we've been talking about this for a couple of days. Inside day on Friday after earnings miss, 598, if it builds below, can flush, can see in the 480s. That's kind of what it did, right? That's kind of what it did here. So, LRCX took out that 598, traded down to the 480s, 489, but still, hey, got to the 480s. Only again, and you can see again, another example of a lower high from the briefest day's range. Again, bulls, you got it. Get your foot out of your tush to start waking up or else, again, the longer we start building the supply, not going to be good. This is definitely the trade of the day for me, for a lot of you guys, and this is what we joked around in the webinar today. He said, hey, this is, you know, it's nice to have a 5-minute work day. Tesla lost the 21040 and then lost the pre-market lows at 208, and we literally covered about a dollar and change right from the lows. You know, stock got down to like 202, at 203 and change. I was like, yo, this is too big of a candle. We got to take it off and somehow that correlated with that 351 bounce on the Q, so worked out really well. Great, great job on Tesla. Again, a lot of really ugly put-buying still coming into the stock in November 185s, 180s, and 190s. AMD, then again, still looks lower. 10140, if it builds below can flush. Here was AMD, right? Flush down went all the way down to 99. Again, guys, watch that 200-day moving average for the next couple of days for potential more. And NVIDIA, right? So here was the pivot on NVIDIA. NVIDIA needs a new base 425, 426 for potential 428, 430 push, right? Again, we're watching it to the downside. Never confirmed, so yada, yada, yada. Look what the stock does, right? Again, you don't need the full of love. You don't need the full of love with the stock, full in love with the channel. Again, took out the 425, 426 level and it was traded right to 430. So great, great job for all you guys to quote that as well. So that's it, guys. So again, these are the facts. I don't want to bring B, the person that brings bad news, but if you are a permable, guys, again, lower highs and lower lows is not a good thing. Watch that 351 level, guys, in the future because again, if that thing falls and we close below 351, it's going to get very, very dicey. Guys, have a great night, everybody. God bless.