 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network At long last the women's World Cup is finally here for 2023 We're gonna break that break down all things World Cup today by bringing back on Dr. Ed Feng picking his brain on this year's field What he thinks of USA if he thinks they can do it for the third consecutive time and much more to get you ready for it Should be a fun couple of weeks of soccer This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by dr. Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power Inc.com and check him out on Twitter at the power Inc. Ed it is a delight to have you back on the show here for today. How you doing? I'm doing pretty well. It's been a lot of fun looking into soccer from the women's perspective and I think I think there's a Lot of interesting things going on in the markets and looking forward to talking about it. I'm happy to hear that I'm excited to hopefully lock in some bets as we get ready for the World Cup the Times of the games, you know not gonna be able to my bedtime does not allow me to watch most of these but They'll still be a lot of fun to track it throughout the time as well fun to watch a good US team in action too So No shade of the men's team by the way, but fun to see a legitimate contender on the women's side here We'll talk about the US and talk about their prospects and much more but Ed It's been a while since we caught up. We last had you on I think around the NFL draft. So how's your summer been going? Summer's been really good been working on football Obviously getting ready for everything going on at the power Inc At my new newsletter at the power Inc.com. It's been a pretty fun summer with five no good Saturday Really getting into prop bets. Yeah, I started with the NBA and more so with baseball because My people who know a lot more than me tell me it's really hard to beat the money line So I really been looking at strikeout props there. That's been a ton of fun have some tools that I'm probably gonna Publicize a little bit more in the next coming weeks. So yeah doing some new things over the summer But also also really focused on football and 2023 season interesting I actually have a worse ROI on strikeout props than I do on money line So you might need to like collaborate to combine forces here a bit so you can up my strikeout prop game That's what we have Rob Freeman on on Friday's pitching ninja to kind of you know handle that street for me I I you know, I don't know why but for whatever reason money lines have been more profitable for me this year Maybe it's variance, but who can say? Yeah, I know I think it's a lot of variance I mean, I've been probably seriously doing strikeouts for a couple weeks now It definitely checked out pitching ninja and some of your shows when I was first getting started and I don't know strikeouts been going really well I think there is a lot of variance, but I also do think there's a lot of value You can just kind of tell when these when these strikeout values like oscillate a lot from game to game as Pictures get hot pictures get cold in the strikeout territory Yeah, I mean it seems I mean, I think we probably all agree that long run you're gonna find more value in props market and Then you know those primary markets, you know same thing with NBA like I'd rather be betting a point prop than a spread and and Yeah, I mean, I think it's an interesting opportunity, right because it's not like I Think there's still value in trying to attack the big props in some sense So I think strikeouts is probably a big prop I think it's something that like people would like to bet and while there's value there Definitely definitely looking looking to it and it's just one to think about something different and hopefully apply that ball in the fall And like thinking about you know How can we turn that into like more niche prop markets? Like I thought about converting my strikeout model into a walk model because a lot of places you can bet Walks as well. So and it'd be just changing two things around it would be very easy to Convert the strikeout model into a prop or a walk model as well So kind of giving that thought of is it the proper market to use the tools I have and stuff like that It's it's a lot of fun for sure. Well, we're gonna talk hopefully. Yeah, good I was gonna say it kind of feels like less exciting to bet walks though, right? Oh, yeah for sure It's why it's exciting, which is why it's probably more profitable to do so Yeah, no, I kind of wonder about that. I mean, I think strikeout are exciting, right? It's got the same kind of fuel is you know, like points It's like a positive thing for the player and and that I feel like always leads to value in the under Which something we'll talk about a little bit later today and women's soccer, but I Don't know. I mean my goal always like especially with five million Saturdays to get people excited You get something like yeah I want to bet on and then you know disappoint them because it's an under But I think people get that if they read my stuff regularly, right? I think I've had one over, you know in the last couple months on on any prop But Yeah, I don't know. I mean it's always like, you know when you're thinking about from my perspective It's kind of like this combination like what can we find out that is probably a little bit easier to find value? But still something that people really want to bet on right and I just like also in the NBA Like it's just a little bit easier to get excited about points than like points plus rebounds plus assists, right? You know what I mean? Yeah, so if that's not true, please someone email me Hit me up on Twitter and tell me but that's my DFS brain likes the PR age because like it translates so well from one to the other But I think in general people probably care, you know It's easier to think about points that it is other stuff So I get that for sure and it tried sizing the research around like Three-point shot attempts the variants involved in all that so I think there's a lot of overlap there too Which would probably make it easier for you So we'll talk plenty of props we're in talks in college football with Ed in a couple weeks We'll talk some NFL with Ed this fall as well But across the next month or so we're talking women's World Cup here every week with Ed getting his thoughts on This year's field the US and much more will do that get an overall view of the women's World Cup here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts our preview The open championship for golf is up via Brandon Cadulla breaking down his thoughts on The open championship at Royal Liverpool find that on the covering the spread podcast feed on the Fandle YouTube Page and over on Fandle TV plus the US women's soccer team is taking on the world and you can take home Bonus bets every time they win with Fandle because right now new customers get $100 and bonus bets guaranteed Plus another $10 and bonus bets for every team USA win sign up between now and August 3rd Then place your first $5 bet to unlock your bonus bets that way You'll be all set to bet on everything in total goals to player props all tournament long However, you want to play don't miss your chance to get $10 and bonus bets for every team USA win plus $100 and bonus bets guarantee make every moment more with Fandle America's number one sportsbook must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non withdrawal bonus bets which expire in seven days Restrictions apply see full terms at Fandle.com slash sportsbook Fandle is offering online sports wagering Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit Fandle.com slash RG in Massachusetts. Hope is here gambling helpline MA org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in New York 18770 hoping wire text open why in Arizona 1 800 next up or text next step to 533 4 2 and Connecticut 188 789 7777 or visit ccpg.org says chat in Indiana 1809 with it in Wyoming and Kansas 1 805 2 2 4700 or visit Kansas your ks gambling health comm in Kansas, Louisiana is 1 877 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling health org and in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Let's just focus now and talk about the women's world cup ad for 2023 and this is the first time we've talked women's international soccer on the show with you So we've talked men's international soccer before plenty But are you able to take that same process you use in building out men's rankings and apply it over to the women's side of things as well Absolutely, and that's certainly where I started on my side. I've had you know men's international rankings for a long time I take match results over you know a pretty significant period like four or five years Use my algorithm that adjusts for strength of schedule And this is particularly important in the international game when you you really have sharks and minnows, right? You really have some Really strong teams against some really weak teams We'll talk about how the United States beat Vietnam 13 to nothing in the last World Cup Things like that you need to account for that. So when I just restrict schedule the strength of my algorithm Is that it tends to wait those kinds of games? So for the women went over and grabbed some data when everything through the last World Cup Which was which was 2019 took all major competitions since then So this would include Euro for the women a couple America in South America North American competitions and all the major con oh in the Olympics too because the women send their top teams to the Olympics as well put those together and Cranked out some numbers had some results, you know the United States first England is second so premium looks close to what you expect the favorites to be in The markets. So yes, you can apply the same strategy that you do for men to the women for the international Game I do think there are some insights in there I also did this for XG you can get XG data for the last World Cup You can get XG data for Euro in 2022 So that's good because a lot of the prime contenders of the United States and teams from Europe And so you can do that as well Obviously, you got to be cautious there because you have a limited amount of data in In a small number of games and XG is great, but XG is far from perfect. You can do all those things And then the debate was okay. Do I want to make that model better? Do I want to include friendlies in there? I don't want to go all out and and Calculate the win probabilities like I do for the men probability to get out of the group and the answer I came up was no, there are just a rash of injuries across all major teams In fact, the only two contenders I can find that aren't suffering from significant injuries and absences are Germany and Sweden United States is missing players like Mallory Swanson who's been a big tongue will score for them in the past France is missing one of their top scores as well. It seems like there is an ACL Epidemic in women's soccer, which is kind of sad. It's taking out a lot of top players Some of the top English women who won Euro not too long ago. I've retired There's some drama with in the Spanish Federation because some of the women don't want to play for the coach So it's kind of a mess So I decided not to perfect that model and to look at some other sources to kind of complement the calculations that I'm doing So basically what you have is a baseline based on your numbers based on running those numbers and adjusting for schedule But then you can tweak in your brain kind of teams up and down based on injuries. Is that kind of what you're doing here? Kind of yeah. Yeah for sure. I mean I think kind of everyone goes down except for Germany and Sweden Honestly, like I mean you can I mean And then you kind of have to and I don't I honestly don't know the rosters that well Like it the idea is that the US is deep enough that they should be able to They should be able to put out a pretty good squad even without three of their top players Should France be able to do that probably Can Spain account for some of their happenings? Well the market thinks so because they're one of the favorites so but But yeah, I think what what it what it made me do was to kind of consult two other Sources so the first of those is actually the FIFA rankings And I know I often make fun of rankings like FIFA, but you know actually a long time ago I learned that they actually do a good job with the FIFA women's rankings They use goals and goal differential when they do the updates after every match And so it ends up being really similar to what I do for college football and and that college football model I've actually found to be more accurate than some of the other things that I used to do That took season long data and adjusted for strength of schedule. So the FIFA women's rankings are actually really good They have the United States first not much to surprise, but you know, they have Germany and sweden second and third Which I think is super interesting. They have all the other contenders Where they should be and uh, it's gonna Account for what these teams have done more recently So it's going to be a little bit more on top of, you know, how these european teams didn't qualify And uh, it's definitely a resource that I go to And then finally I've been looking at a lot of player rankings Just to try to figure out, you know, who has a lot of players Out there, you know, who who kind of checks the boxes in terms of league players playing at top clubs United States certainly does although it's interesting because a lot of the u.s Women still play in the u.s And I I'm not exactly sure how to compare that to like a Barcelona who won the champions league In europe, uh, it really seems like Barcelona has every top woman in europe, um, and Uh, except for and so yeah, it's it's it's still challenging to figure that out And so I think it'll be interesting to kind of watch these games and and see how the players perform and and you know It's a little bit of a referendum on us soccer versus in europe I mean for the men we clearly know that europe is better But what what is what is it for the women? So let's talk about that and talk about the market here because right now the u.s Is the favorite to win their third consecutive world cup. They are a plus 240 at fandals sportsbook. England is plus 430 Let's talk about the usa portion of that first. Actually, uh, english is lengthened. They're now plus 550 spain is plus 470 Now second in those but as you mentioned before the fee for rankings are a bit different Let's talk about the u.s side of that first plus 240 add Do you think they deserve to be effectively in a tier of their own for the women's world cup? I think so, uh, the women have certainly, uh, earned the respect. I mean, they've they've had a really good squad They have the world cup victories to prove it Uh The numbers all have them as the top team in the world. So I certainly think They deserve to be the favorite the numbers also suggest that the margin is not that big from the u.s To like england and france and and other teams that were very competitive in the last world cup If i'm if i'm not mistaken I believe that you know the us won the last world cup But the xg was really close and I think they were actually behind england and france when they played in the semifinal final So it's not like It's not like we expect the us women to be minus 110 favorites, right us first of the field kind of thing It's it's a lot more even now the rest of the world is catching up and I don't have any problem with the us being the favorite. I don't really have any interest in that number But it should be competitive So the us not in a tier of its own Does that to you mean there is value anyone anywhere else in the market looking at potentially healthier teams, whatever it may be right now Yeah, honestly, like I really like the healthy teams. I like germany and sweden. I think there's value in germany plus seven Plus 750 sweden still 18 to 1 They are in me. Yes. Yeah. I really uh, you know, like I mentioned their second and third and the fever rankings They're also really high in my numbers. I think simply the health is really going to benefit them So I mean those are the those are the two teams I would I would go to in the futures market So the FIFA rankings have germany and sweden higher as a result of the health and it sounds like You're valuing those where did those teams kind of settle in if we're not accounting for health? You know, you're looking at your rankings before you factor in the health stuff Were they still pretty high up there and then are just kind of benefiting from that bump after that point? Yeah, absolutely. I mean germany was third in my numbers So certainly not too bad. They were fourth in an xg and and they should have Uh, that's going to be a better estimate for germany just because you have data from them from both the world cup and euro Um, sweden was six when I look at uh, gold difference. So that would be my numbers and then and then six in xg So they also check those boxes there as well Um, and and they also have like top players in the world, you know, when you kind of scan some of these top lists of players There there's a core of players from both teams that that end up on those lists And are healthy and are going to be at the world cup So germany plus 750 and sweden plus 1800 both potential Good futures outlets as a result of their health relative to what other teams are dealing with as of right now Let's stay focused on team usa. You're in talk with their first match of taking on vietnam and add their money line is minus 20 000 Yikes, uh, so i'm gonna go ahead and guess we're not talking about that But when you look at them taking on vietnam, this game is on friday. Anything stand out to you in that game right now Yeah, absolutely. Uh, so the us won 13 to nothing again over vietnam and the last world cup and So that immediately suggested like, you know, let's look at the total goals, right? And when it's 13 nothing it kind of suggests an over right um So if you look at the you know, if you look at the over go to over under six and a half goals You know, it's it's pretty much even right so so the total is is six and a half goals That's that's just too much when you go back to the last world cup that us vietnam game was the only game to go The total to go over six goals um So the idea is that you know, it's really hard to score goals at the international level That that the us is unlikely to have a performance similar to the last world cup Obviously probably not getting too much help from vietnam in terms of scoring goals I do like the under here. Uh, one thing that you can do you can actually look at the spain coaster reeky game Which has a similar money line And uh, you can see that they're Over under for goals is more like five and a half or four and a half. Yeah, uh, it's it's It's uh, it's it's not quite the same. So, uh, I I think Six and a half goals is a lot if you want to bet on the us game I think I think go under six and a half goals the spain coaster reeky and to be uh to Outline what that is if you go to the five and a half goals the under for them is minus 174 The spain money line in that game is the exact same as the us one So it sounds kind of as if ed that 13 nil Match up Is going to play a massive massive factor in driving that total up for that one match I I certainly think that's the case of course anytime that you recommend an under in a game like this You are uh, opening yourself to look like a complete fool because sure No, it's not out of the question that 10 nothing happens. Sure. Um, but but I do think under is is the way you go here So and the thing about that is is you're not betting You know an average the average could be about six and a half because there are situations in which 13 nil happens You're betting a median and if the median if it goes under six and a half goals more than 52 percent of the time then that's a profitable bet And based on the data we had from the last roll cup like you were saying where they're typically low scoring It seems like the odds that it goes under six and a half even in a very slanted game Seem to be pretty high even looking at some more games like you said That is a big number. So as you said ed unders not the most fun thing to bet, um, you know, they can Definitely make your heartbeat a little bit if the u.s. Gets out. It's like a three nil lead right away But right money's fun, right? Yeah, I know it is fun. I mean obviously the sweat is a little different from an under because you're just sitting there the whole game being like, all right Please, uh, please take your photo off the gas us, which probably doesn't happen Right, but um, but I still like under six and a half goals here Especially that game is actually at a reasonable time too. It's at nine o'clock eastern So that one I actually can watch which is not as uh, you know I prefer to bet unders when I can't watch it and I can wake up the next morning See how it went feel good about it But you know, I think it'll be a good way to get some action on that us versus v at non-game to open things up Let's talk about the futures market too at here because um We did talk about like the actual like to win the world cup futures But there are a lot of other futures. There are some player futures as well here groups Whatever it may be looking at the other futures beyond just the outright winner market. Where are you seeing value right now? Yeah, I think the golden boot is kind of interesting. Uh, so there's two us women that are, uh You know the favorites, uh, alex morgan is 34 years old She's been around a while when I learned that she was 34 years old. I was kind of like, whoa I'm old. Yeah, same You know the the the young new thing on the us women's national team So, I don't know. Is she effective as she used to be and and going to be the golden boot, maybe Um, I I'm not sure that there's too much value in those two Sam Kerr is widely considered the the best women's player in the world Whether you look at like the salary. She gets paid in england. Uh, you look at some of these rankings of players She's she's always at the top It's also interesting. She's at home. She's australian. So so there's a lot, uh, kind of going on there But you know, her odds are lower because she's probably not getting you as many matches as the us women, right? Australia is not expected to go as far You know, they're plus 900 a win, which means, you know, I mean, they're they're Probably a stretch to see them get all the way the semis Uh, and certainly less likely than than the us Um, I actually really do I haven't bet it yet, but I've been thinking about betting alexandra pop Who is germany's top scorer 16 to 1? You know expected germany team to make it pretty far at least the semifinal pretty decent shot of making the semifinal Um, and she's going to be their top goal scorer This is uh, this is a woman that probably has about the same goal rate as alex morgan in international matches And probably faces more difficult competition playing in Europe there Um, if you want to have some fun I think that's one I would I would go with and honestly like 10 to 1 on on on sam kerr is probably not Uh, it would would also be fun as well Alexander pop is 16 to 1 right now over at vandal sportsbook to win at the golden boot And it does correlate well with your germany outright because you're expecting them to Exceed market expectations there, which does correlate to this more gains these more shots at goals stuff like that but also it it sounds like Uview pop is being like the Top goal scorer on germany. So if they score she's benefiting more Whereas, you know, maybe morgan has more competition in the u.s side of things as well So it sounds like there are a couple benefits of pop that we may not find at shorter odds Exactly. Yeah. I mean, I do think she's the primary scorer actually go down a little bit Like with the u.s It looks like you can see trinity rodman also is on this list That's then it's the rodman's daughter Nice. And I can I cannot wait to like watch her play to see if you can see anything of Father in her play, uh, which I think would be kind of hilarious. But yeah, I mean, yeah, I think the u.s women even Even without manila response and uh, looks like they have a lot of women up there that that are going to potentially score a lot of goals um, so Yeah, I would I would go with with uh, with a woman from from another nation that also has a chance of going She should also probably score a lot of goals And again, it ties into their other bets too So that's always going to be a company thing where the market if it's off in one area can be off multiple areas and kind of finding The spots where you can benefit from those errors is beneficial Got a lot of games ed they're starting, uh Thursday morning actually, uh with the first matches looking at matches Anything stand out to you teams that may be undervalued any markets you want to bet right now I'm not looking to bet kind of these matches until a little bit later. You can tell from these odds that they're pretty lopsided and Um, you know, it's not, you know, when it tends to be two even teams I'm going to go through and use my numbers to calculate what the win probability should be And I think that'll give you kind of a decent estimate And you can kind of apply what you see and and actually watching these matches to to figure out if there's value As of right now, you know, I mean, I'm not really interested in minus 20,000 for the u.s. They're spending the win. I mean, that's that So, um Yeah, I'm not quite interested in that right now. Um, I I certainly will like when there are competitive games I mean, certainly as we get into the quarterfinals these games will get very competitive The odds will be pretty even and that's when I want to pounce But and and I'll probably put some of these predictions in my newsletter In five nugs saturday But in terms of betting it i'm going to wait a little bit And I think the other benefit too is you can kind of test your numbers. You can see The numbers that you have are they performing well, you know, are they meeting expectations here and you can decide Okay, I've got more confidence in my numbers now since we get to those matches that might be a bit more highly contested I feel like getting that more getting more data in there Allowing yourself to test your model with your eyes I feel like that's another benefit of potentially holding off You're not just betting into like these massive markets, but also you can actually Tell whether or not the the numbers you have have value relative to the market Exactly and uh, yeah, I'm interested to see exactly how the numbers tend to work out Yeah, I am as well It's going to be a fun, uh tournament to track as mentioned We're going to be talking about this every week with that uh getting his read on the markets talking team usa and much more So to get those chats as they go live make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five start rating on apple podcast or spotify And also do not forget to check us out on the fendal youtube page or on the fendal tv plus app on amazon fire apple tv Or roku ed been a blast to talk to you once again If you want to find five nuggets saturday if you want to find anything else you got cooking over at the power rank Where can they do so? Check me out at the power rank calm Certainly, uh a lot of the best stuff is in the newsletter With five no good saturday like right now. I can guarantee on saturday. There'll be a strikeout prop in there Right now since the nba season ended. I've been throwing some football futures in which is not my favorite thing to do because it obviously You can't cash that ticket right over the weekend, which is I don't know I would prefer that you cash some tickets and want to come back and and read the newsletter the next saturday so uh, but and then I definitely talk about analytics and and Obviously in the middle of getting ready for football season and uh in the newsletter I also have a preview series for Both college football and nfl. So check that out at the power rank calm Alrighty and find ed on twitter at the power rank as well. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s Want to thank you all for tuning in we'll talk to you once again tomorrow talking And then there'll be futures and I'll talk uh the hungarian grump ryan talks in nascar as well We'll talk to all of you then this has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network