 Hi to my friends at CMC Markets and also other people who will get to listen to this clip. This is Michelle Schneider, Mitch, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. It is after our Labor Day weekend, September 5th at the close. And there's a lot to talk about with commodities. Clearly, we can see that there is persistence inflation, especially if we're taking a look at the oil market, which is completely the opposite of what we're also saying, which is a strong dollar against foreign currencies. So we're going to cover all of that. We're going to cover the metals. And we're also going to take a look at some of the currency pairs. What you see here is the USD Japanese yen. We're also going to look at the USD versus the Canadian dollar. As tomorrow you'll be waking up to an announcement on whether or not Canada is going to increase their interest rates or keep things the same. So let's get going. Let's start with the crude, because it seems like everybody that it can is actually cutting back their production to keep the energy prices and the oil prices higher. This could turn out to be some kind of a crisis, but nonetheless, let's take a look right here at the chart. And then we looked at 80 as the pivotal point last week before our little break. So here we are. As we ended the week, it started to accelerate over $84 a barrel. And now here we are. We got up to $88 a barrel closing at $86.54, and of course we're looking now at the October contract, which would be spot. So where does it end? Now of course we always run the chance that this turns out to be the resistance area ahead of 90, and of course, this is a top and we go much lower from here. But at this point now that seems hard to fathom. So what we're going to say right now is love to look at those pivotal areas. So let's look at a couple. Obviously right now I would say $85.50 is going to be your first place to be looking at on spot. Comes in under $85.50. I would not be surprised to see a move back down closer to the $84 level, at least to start. If it holds $85.50, especially if it comes in over the unchanged level at $86.50, then it's possible that we can work our way much higher. Remember we said that through $80, we were then going to look at $85. That's where we're at now in a little more. And then from there we would look at $90, and from there we would look at $100 a barrel. Again, don't listen to what anybody says. I've seen claims for $300 a barrel, $100 a barrel, and it could be this is it. This could have been selling the news, but we don't see that yet. So remember that $85.50, that's going to be your key support on a very short-term trading basis to see if we can hold up here under $84. I would say maybe not so great. Above $86.50 is your bullish bias, and of course we get through $88.00. I see $90.00 and possibility of $93.00 to $95.00 next. Let's move on though to a much more challenging energy market, and that's natural gas. Now certainly not much has happened. We talked about it getting through the possibility of $280.00, and it started to do that at the end of last week, but it could not close there. So remember closing levels with these futures, especially this year, seem to be extremely important. So we're going to stick with that prediction, $280.00 is the number on the spot natural gas that it has to clear. On the flip side, we said $240.00, that was your ultimate support because that was the low that we made back in June, right at the beginning of June, and we luckily have not seen things break down under there. But I also mentioned to you last week that I thought $250.00 was extremely important, which was the low of a couple of weeks ago. So as you can see right now, this is closing poorly for today. Our closing levels were at $258.00, $259.00. If we break down under, let's say, the closing levels, and then we can give it a little bit more room. Let's call it $263.00. Under $263.00, we would definitely have a more negative bias. Above $263.00, we would be looking at $280.00, and of course above $280.00, I still think that the future of natural gas, even though it's having a rough time getting started, hence its name Widowmaker, at some point will indeed get started. A lot of this softness today is because of China numbers, and people are convinced that China demand is going to continue to go down. That also remains to be seen. But it's also European numbers, and of course, as we're experiencing warmer weather, really we're looking ahead for a much colder winter. So again, $263.00 and below, more to the negative, obviously $250.00 would be a big key area, and then $240.00. And once it gets over $280.00, particularly on a closing basis, I see no reason why these two highs, you can see now, are starting to get much closer to the 200-day moving average. We get through there, and I think we have a much bigger rally in store. Let's take a look now at the gold and the silver. The yellow metal is so fascinating to me because you would think, by the way, if you look at sugar prices today, sugar prices rose 3% and are trading well over $0.26 a pound. This is exactly what happened in the 70s, is we had the oil issues, and then the sugar started to rally, and eventually gold and silver caught up. But yet we're not there yet. And I say yet because I'm still pretty convinced that we will get there, but the higher dollar and of course the interest rates are having some impact for now. So if we take a look at this chart right here, remember I showed you the intersection between the 200 and the 50, and that we were going to get into the death cross, and of course we have right now. So officially gold is in a bearish phase if we're talking about the December futures contract. However, I wouldn't let that bother me too much. We also had a trend line here, which really actually could probably be fixed a little bit because you can see it's got moved down. So if we just kind of straighten that out a little bit here to see if we actually really broke out of this contract, and it's not letting me really move it very much, but I'd say that's probably good enough. We did get through, and we didn't follow through. So remember we talked about the intersection of the two moving averages and also this trend line. So it looked like it was going to be explosive, especially as we ended last week, and we intraday cleared over 1975, but didn't hold. But we also talked about the fact that 1940 to 1950 was very big support as well, and we didn't think that that was going to break. So where are we right now? If we look at this right now, and we just look to where it stopped, we have a lot of support at today's low. So let's call it 1950. Let's even say 1940 to 1950. Below 1950, yeah, it's possible that we may go looking to test some of the lower levels, I would say 1930. At this point, I would still be somewhat suspicious that it can actually break this lower trend line. On the flip side, let's see where that trend line is. Of course, it's been broken out and now broken down, so it's not so valid anymore, but we can still use 1960 as a pivotal point. Above 1960 bullish, below 1950 bearish, in between maybe a bit choppy. And of course, next time we can get through 1980, that will be the time I think that gold will fly. Now let's take a look at silver. So with the silver market right here, remember we are looking at it as outperforming the gold in the silver to gold ratio. However, in the bullish phase that it was, with the 50 over the 200 and price above, as we came into this week starting today, you can see that we've now broken down underneath both of those moving averages. We would need a second close under 2408 to confirm that we're now back in a caution phase or possibly even distribution phase underneath both moving averages. However, I would be keeping my eye here on 2375. I think above 2375, we probably would get another test of around 2415. We get through there, of course, go back to 2450 with watching gold as well eventually seeing if we can get back up over these recent highs. Below 24, and below really the closing level today, or let's even call it 2375, below that then I would say probably going to look at another test and we have a lot of traffic and congestion right here at around 2335. And if that breaks, of course, next level would be down around 23. We have nice bottoms here though. I'm still thinking that this was a bit overdone today on the futures exchange. And of course now with the levels that we're looking at above gold and silver, we will know how to play it as we come into tomorrow. Now I do want to show you the SLV chart so that you can look at our momentum indicators. What makes this chart interesting to me is looking right down here. So first of all, we never got above the 200 day moving average even though we're above it here on price. So there's been a negative divergence in SLV. This is the ETF. So that's not necessarily the best news. However, at the same time, it was completely outperforming. The spy now is slightly underperforming. Also, if you look at this black line right here, you can see it, not the dotted one, but the black solid line that I'm following with my cursor. We never got through there. So you're certainly not going to miss the boat if we get a big move up in silver because this will clear. And then the dotted line up here, the Bollinger ban which will clear, which that too, in momentum, hasn't exactly done very much. We had a kind of a mean reversion down here at the lows. So that was the nice move up to here. This bar is the six-month calendar range high, which we could not clear. And this bar down here is the six-month calendar range low, which happily we're very far from. So where the futures price was under both moving average, the SLV price is still sitting above the 200, but below the 50. So if you want to look at an ETF, I would say a move back over 2070, 2175 could correspond with a move of holding the 2370 level or 75 level in the futures. I felt it would be remiss of me not to at least give you a look, see at the sugar futures. This is the spot contract of sugar. Notice that it made a new high today. This is a new multi-year high. And it took out all of the work that it's been doing throughout 2023. That is definitely something to consider in terms of the inflation. Certainly something to consider in terms of the 1970s if we have any kind of parallel to that. And of course, could be something to consider in terms of the equities market and how aggressive the central banks have to be going forward to try to control this oil and food inflation, what kind of demand destruction do they think they can accomplish? Let's finally go to the currencies. So this is the USD Japanese yen. So remember, the dollar is first. And what you can see, obviously, is that this, too, has now cleared a lot of resistance that goes back a year ago, October, November. So the dollar is definitely strong. It traded at $104.80. I think that $105.00, $105.50 is going to be if to the upside maybe, maybe $106.00 max. But nonetheless, right now, as we're looking at these numbers, we can see exactly where my cursor is, that around $146.60 is now the area that this has to hold, just slightly above today's high. Holds this level. And it probably means that we're going to see more upside for the dollar versus the yen. And of course, if we go back and look at to the left of where my cursor is, as we're looking at these levels that we haven't seen since November, let's take a look at the highs of November. That would be around $148.89 or $90.00. So that would be kind of my target place, at least as the dollar could possibly test this $105.50 to $106.00. On the flip side, considering this is a new 60-plus day high, we would definitely want to look at what happens if this breaks down. Under that $104.650, not only could it be a reversal top, but it would also be taking out all these levels of resistance that could become support, as we saw today, or back to resistance. So that's how I'm looking. $146.50 and below, more negative. $146.80, $90.00 and above, more positive. Looking at that move, like I said, up to around $148.90 level. And of course, if we break down under that negative area of $146.50, then we would start to look back at $144.00 and then possibly that 50-day moving average. If I turn your attention to here, the momentum, we had a gap up today in momentum clearing these Bollinger bands and all of this work. So right now, to me, the momentum and the price is definitely suggesting a stronger dollar versus the yen. So the dollar versus the Canadian dollar, also in momentum, as you can see, gapped up, making a new high, a high that we have not seen since back here, when the price was just slightly higher than where it's at right now. So that's very notable. Our momentum was at this level when the price was at around $136.40. So $136.40 is going to be our first pivotal number. If the momentum suggests that this is going higher, we will clear this $136.40, dollar versus Canadian dollar. And of course, I would say the next move we're going to see is to move up around these levels here at $137.00. And then we would take another look, again, a little bit higher here at around $137.43. Always have to look at both sides of the fence. If this was some kind of a fake out here in the momentum and with the breakout today, and just another run into the resistance of these levels that we saw in April and May, and the dollar actually turns a little bit lower, or Canada raises their rates of which case supports the Canadian dollar, then we won't get through this $136.45. So below, I would take a little bit more of a negative stance, above definitely a positive stance. And if we cannot get below, excuse me, above this $136.45, and we start to break down under there, then I would be looking at really where we had the major consolidation, looking at the bodies of the candle at around $135.53. And then we can see what happens from there. OK, that's it for now. Hope you guys enjoyed and learned something. I'll be talking to you all next week. Have a great day and the rest of your week. And bye for now.