 Okay, very good morning. It's just gone past 7 a.m. Now in London on Friday 18th of September First things first a little bit of a different look to the briefing this morning As you can see as always really appreciate it if you could subscribe and join us on the AmpliTrading YouTube channel I've had some really great engagement as usual throughout the week and obviously I love answering questions If I can help in any way I always will but I've got a special guest with me today Sam, how's it going? Hi, and yeah, no really good. Thank you. It's great to be back like the old days a throwback to To the simpler times, but yeah, no very well. Thank you and you know looking forward to this Yeah, so what I'll do is we'll go back to the the back to back routine so I'll do the warm-up and then you're the main event and You can go over the charts and you can look at things from a more of the technical I guess implementation. I'll talk a little bit more about the general sentiment on things And then go through some of the headline news stories in focus. So start off then. Let's have a quick look at the the charts and They're not really too much to report in the way of major significant use that developed overnight I mean in terms of the actual closes on Wall Street all negative across the board Then as that underperforming a touchdown around one and a half the other industry S&P down about 8 tenths of a cent down that half a percent So not too much to speak of I'm sure Sam will look at the S&P a little bit more detail in a moment Obviously the briefing yes that I was talking about It was the 50 DMA holding up as a pretty decent level of Support that as I said, he can you can look back in a moment. Otherwise in terms of the other asset classes The dollar index is pretty flat So any of those gains that we're seeing Really in the Asia session not last night but the night before all of that's been taken back in Actually any of the the Fed did mainly has been reversed now. So turns into major currency pairs then Now that that dollar has pulled back It's just provided a bit of a moderate support tone to euro dollar and cable and the major effects pairs Cable obviously has been on a bit of a roller coaster and yesterday, of course, we had the The Bank of England come out and they gave their strongest signal yet that they're considering using negative interest rates They said that they will work with bank regulators on how they might implement such a policy So if you actually track the Bank of England Kind of rhetoric over the course of the last couple of months. This is the actual When that announcement came out They basically started to ramp up the the timings of preparation work for if it's necessary It's kind of ready to go as a potential policy tool and obviously this comes with October being particularly important months for the uk as we know the kind of trio of of events Ranging from the cobit developments, which I'm going to talk about actually in quite a lot of detail in a moment To brexit and then the uk government's fiscal plans with things like furlough Coming up for exploration, but as you can see though that that selling pressure was relatively short-lived. They had a really big Wick here on that candle print And that did come amid then some of the latest brexit updates But before I get to that quick look at some of the other charts gold minor positive this morning of about 10 bucks at 1959 and a half again technically it was quite interesting here in terms of A retest up at the overnight Asia-Pacific highs, but there was also a low point and there is support through Periods of the last week going back to Tuesday Wednesday And then in crude I'm going to talk a little bit. I'll give you an update on opec in a moment, but wti continues to claw back Some of those recent losses that we've had of late I'm just going to quickly look on a daily actually haven't done so in a while And you can see here from a technical standpoint and coming right up to that Cluster of activity the 50 dma being the red line Is where we're trading so we reclaimed a 41 dollar handle for the for the time being But look, let's get into some of the headlines. Sam will go over those charts again In more detail they said so I'll just transition my screens So should be able to see now some news articles And the first one I'm going to talk about is is brexit remember I just showed you that pound chart after the Bank of England comment about kind of preparation of negative rates The pound fell but then we saw a big pop on the ups and reversal after an ft report That came out From citing the eu commission president talking about that there's still a prospect of a deal with britain being done The uk government has now said that a round of informal eu trade talks this week was useful Obviously following that comment where? Uh Vandalion said that she's convinced the deal is possible Negotiators in terms of timing of course are kind of working over time now trying to come to an agreement by mid october Is that tentative timeline to provide time then for the deal to be ratified before year end and the end of the transition period? So not too much really to add here other than You can expect the brexit headlines to remain Quite a constant feature. I think of british press going forward However, that could well be superseded by an increasing issue confronting the nation And that is this Reports this morning and we've already had The health secretary matt hancock. He's already been speaking 7 a.m. This morning So he he definitely is trying to get ahead I would say tactically from a pr point of view A lot of the papers are running this as a major headline this morning So he's already been out talking about it And that's the prospect of the uk heading potentially for a second national lockdown This comes after as it states here some advice has come from some scientific Um advisors and what's happening here is that they're suggesting the uk government should impose a two-week national lockdown in october to coincide with the october school half term the number of positive COVID-19 cases is doubling every seven to eight days in england at the moment And so This is what that looks like at the moment in terms of on a nationwide basis very much situated in the in the north West for the time being but there has been also areas now in the northeast Which have gone into kind of localized lockdown. So New restrictions have come in in areas in newcastle northumberland North t timeside south gates head county darin and sunderland and this means now that the current imperial college london ipsos mori data Again doubling every seven to eight days in england and covid cases putting an r right now at around 1.7 Uh, which Yeah, it's definitely not as high as obviously the peak of where it was in initial first wave But certainly would indicate then a further increase is to come in this Now a couple of things here Cases is one thing hospitalizations and deaths are another. So what does that look like? Well, this is the actual A number of infections per day in the uk. So just wanted to give you a bit of context So you can see here we printed yesterday at three thousand three hundred and ninety five when we were peaking up at around north of six thousand If we go back to the main part of when the the country was in the first national lockdown So here you can see this is the highest clearly the rates that we've been on a number of infections Going all the way back to to april maytime From a hospitalizations point of view. It's been fairly minimal This has been one of the things why the market has been fairly Comfortable with what has been what we're looking at here in the uk very much mimicked in other mainland european countries But the point is though that these numbers are starting to rise and once they do Um, they can rise very quickly and in terms of hospitalizations in the uk here You can see a bit of a uptick that we've had Over the course of the last kind of two weeks or so One of the things that You might have seen me on twitter commenting on was i went for a walk down south bank in central london along the river Last weekend and that sunday marked then the commencement next the next day this week's monday of the gathering numbers dropping from like 30 to 6 And and absolutely what i saw was a a heck of a lot of young people out in big groups well in excessive six Just drinking and socializing and and certainly not really adhering to social distancing rules and that obviously has been one of the main demographics which has been Hit the hardest in terms of the the new case rates. So hospitalizations It looks minimal on this chart But actually if you actually look at it comparative if i had my excel sheet up with all the numbers This is increasing a fairly rapid pace And in terms of deaths i went on the nhs website this morning and tried to look back to some of the data As far as i could see is as of monday There was only one person in the uk that died Of covet 19 as of the most recent data in the last 24 hours that number has gone from one to 20 so again 20 is not in the grander scheme of things comparative to where we were previously A big number but going from one to 20. It's a pretty rapid acceleration. So What's happened this morning? The health secretary matt hancock has come out and said the national lockdown Is the quote he said we never take a national lockdown off the table But it is the last line of defense obviously This is this could be the worst possible situation not just for the uk government But for anyone who adopts a nationwide lockdown that is the most economically damaging Absolutely, even just for a two week period would have a significant impact on this kind of Speed and shape of the economic recovery Certainly would be one of those things then would lead markets to believe then that the bank of england really compounding with brexit risk You know more qe More negative rates the markets probably going to start pricing that in more certainly if we actually do See a second national lockdown. So yeah, it was keeping an eye. I mean Sam will look at the pound I mean, I've just got the chart in front of me and there's quite a good area of resistance in sterling over the last 24 hours and actually There's a there's a heck of a lot of headwinds For sterling at the moment and Ultimately, we have a little pop yesterday on that positive kind of eu comment about the potential for concession negotiations on the brexit front But if this national lockdown starts to get a bit of traction The other kind of indirect implication is can have economically is if the press really run with this narrative Think about what that does then for the public psyche and general consumer confidence You know one of the big things about the first lockdown which I think was kind of underplayed to a certain extent was fear Not so much actually contracting or dying of this virus but fear of that Then can have massive reverberate or massive repercussions on then the economic performance because ultimately You know we are a service-driven economy And if the consumer stops spending and then you start throwing in the fact that there could be millions of new layoffs coming At the end of furlough as well in the coming weeks. It's hard to try and Try and not be bearish at the moment for sterling. So It'd be interesting to have a look at That technically when Sam comes on but yeah, hopefully that makes makes some sense what I'm saying here is that I believe that the uk situation on covet. I think Case numbers will start to increase quite rapidly I think we're already starting to see it but hospitalizations and deaths will then start to increase as well The tipping point here is what does the government say? And how far away are we from going from localized to national lockdown? If talk starts to move to national lockdown intensifies pounds can get hit In the first instance any any feeling that that's becoming a higher prospect Is going to be in the in the intraday environment quite a big negative short term And that again, it gets further exacerbated by the fact that the only thing the bank of England can do at this point Was in just ease further In in as per they were kind of signaling yesterday Okay, a couple of other things to quickly mention On the u.s. political front The democrats weigh next steps after trump backs a bigger stimulus, you know one of the things that drone power was quite sure of In the press conference earlier this week was about And the usual central bank stance that fiscal policies got to accompany Monetary policy for it to have a real potent impact on on the overall broader economy And I was just I was just kind of figuring out in my head this negotiation And if you think about it the democrats started at three and a half trillion Republicans at one trillion that was the original kind of starting post of this this latest round of potential u.s. fiscal stimulus Swing district democrats now want 2.2 trillion. Okay, so we move that down a little bit By partisan group of house lawmakers put forward a 1.5 trillion Yesterday that got welcomed by trump because that's near into the trillion Of which then the republicans originally wanted but remember the republicans earlier this week put forward 500 billion So we're getting a little bit closer But polosian senate democratic leader chuck schumer has said they want 2.2 trillion So the democrats have gone from three and a half All the way down to one and a half But the people that really matter have said they want 2.2 Trump's gone from 500 up to 1.5 now. So for me There is going to be a stimulus. It's in both political parties interest to provide another stimulus, right? This isn't about blocking trump or blocking The democrats this is about coming across as in you are further assisting people in their jobs in their livelihood You're boosting the economy and so it's a positive in both cases. So for me This will happen. I guess it's about who's going to get the win You know a bigger number the democrats can bark if it's a little bit more controlled But I think trump could spin it any way that he's giving more to the people So net net I think it's coming and that's why I think that The market's not that bothered by the fact that it hasn't been that forthcoming Because I think ultimately it will And as long as markets believe that then I think it's it's a bit of a moot point of this particular juncture Okay, moving elsewhere. Just wanted to quick mention about oil I'm sorry. I'm sure sam will look at the chart, but with oil Yeah, we've continued to just just push higher and certainly some games were seen yesterday Saudi Arabia showed its determination to protect the recovery at the OPEC plus committee meeting the jmmc Basically criticizing members that have cheated on production quotas. I mean you can almost visualize it at a meeting I guess virtually now there's like this big Saudi contingent sitting there and then you've got like the mr. Iraq and Mrs. Olivia and mr. Nigeria They're kind of quaking in their boots and there's all these Saudi contingents saying if you don't do what we're saying There's going to be repercussion and and certainly that seemed to be the tone From what I was seeing in the headlines yesterday basically Saudi are just getting a little bit more Assertive with just taking it by the scruff of the collar and saying look you need to sort this out. We're all doing it. We're all in it We're having no Flexibility for uncompliance and the reason for this is because the EIA report which came out earlier this week Showed that the UAE Almost entirely disregarded its commitment to the quotas last month While tanker tracking data showed that Iraq is exporting more crude so far in september We're only halfway than in the entire month of august So I don't find that that surprising Iraq is always the culprit of Non-compliance, but Saudi trying to put a little bit of the pressure on them And I think the market responded to that as in that ultimately Saudi's Got the resolve to see this through and if they have Um, and Saudi also warned short sellers not to challenge its resolved Dropping clear hints that there could be a change in direction in production policy Before the group next meets in december. So they even went as far as kind of You know shooting one an arrow across the bow saying look Don't don't think that we won't do it. I know we've we've kind of loosened the depth of the cup We go back And and that seems to be enough for the market to have Responded to that because of course this comes with Quite a lot of that recent dip in oil being down to faltering demand that we've been seeing in various different metrics. So All in all, I would say Saudi did a pretty good job Uh, it was kind of akin to a little bit like a central bank Meeting in the way that they're trying to talk the market back up How long that will last though? I guess it's a question Uh, we're all yet to be seen on the oil front as well So obviously being super busy in the Atlantic in terms of developing weather systems the one that just to bring on your your Weather system radar so to speak is uh, 22 which is down here Obviously in close proximity to the gulf tropical depression currently And 22 is expected to strengthen though to a tropical storm and possibly a hurricane And the reason for that to keep an eye on or at least be aware of Is that while moving slightly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days? So obviously these weather systems are subject to changes in direction and any shift more east Would then be very sensitive to that particular geographic region. So it's a little bit early But I think this could garner a little bit more interest as it develops over the weekend perhaps All right, calendar wise. What have we got? We've already had UK retail sales come out No real impact on markets on the back of that Month of month 0.8 against 0.7 x fuel number 0.6 against 0.4 So Again, I think the bigger challenge here and overall what people are focusing on to trade sterling right now Is really what's coming in the near future Not so much in the rear view mirror about what retail sales was like In august so no real reaction on that going further forward then in towards the rest of the day It's relatively quiet. There's no one major data coming out of the states today in the 130s But you do get the preliminary september university of michigan Three o'clock oil traders baking huge rig count as per normal a couple of speakers ECB's de gwindos 1015 feds bullard non-voter But is speaking on the coveted 19 recovery challenge at 3 p.m. London. So 10 a.m. New York feds schnabel 3 p.m. feds bostic again non-voter at 5 p.m On midday New York Final thing is you can see here a big chunk of expiry is happening. So I did tweak this out Again my handle here just search my name or awm chung But it's quadruple witching So for any new traders if you just go on my tweet What this refers to is the date of which stock index futures index options stock options and single stock futures all expire simultaneously When this day occurs it generally leads to quite a big spike in volume Not always Consequently volatility, but it's definitely something to be aware of particularly at the expiration of these these contracts You tend to see quite a flurry of activity just before The expiration so just to be aware of that if you're trading the index futures But yeah, that's it. So I'll hand you over sam and he can go over some of the charts now so Over to you Cheers and thank you. Thank you very much. That's good to be good to be back. So let's just share my My screen we'll start off by having a look at the pound I think the best place to start following that it's It's set up very nicely going into the end of the week and and like you said, there's a lot of negative Headwinds at present and the second lockdown could well be the tipping point to send it further south However, where we close the week is going to be key So do look out for that video that I'm going to shoot this sunday This is the pound on that daily chart and and the reason why I'm saying it's so key where we finish is You have these lows that really gave way after we closed below on the 8th of september Yes, this down move started a bit before that, but we're retesting them now We've had one two three four including today five days where we're knocking on that ceiling Something has got to give do the sellers take over do the bears send price action downwards And back down towards the 128 or do the bull step in we close above 130 We close above the the the moving average the 50 day moving average and and then we start to actually push on It's it's so key. I think at the moment I'd rather be in the camp with the bears And potentially looking for shorts how we finished this week But that said above the 130 on the daily close And more importantly, I would say the low that we had here on the 24th 130 57 I wouldn't want to be short anymore And I think you would get quite a good relief rally as that short squeeze takes place Much like we saw back in may here where we had exactly the same sort of price action break the lows Retest it works for a couple of days. Once you get that close above that leads to Another big rally so keep a keep a close watch on that how we close not just the pound. There's plenty of markets A very well set up going into the last trading day of the week the pound on that lower time frame Then these are those levels transitioned on to a 60 minute You can see the importance now. We really range down funnily enough after the Bank of England yesterday over the last Two and now whatever we traded today seven hours 45 minutes worth of trading. What is going to give I I'd almost be You know slightly patient and wait for either the 130 handles come in or one Nearly just low 129 probably a moving not a moving average a sort of line in the sand around the pivot 129 43 Have a bit of patience and and you know wait for The triggers you would want at those levels, but very well set up going into The euro I'm just going to bring this in on the longer time frame for me if you remember from our live coverage that we had with the The FOMC the rate decision we were talking about how It it looked like it would push down and then we have this trend line on which is worth having on It's also of course the lows that we had from the 21st of august that gets hit the 50 day moving average Actors support and we're now back higher. You can see the importance of these daily closes I would still say for those that are sure you're happy to be sure especially if you got in from You know lane's comments on the sort of the 120 Uh, you'd be happy to stay sure along as we stay below the 10th of september high for me That comes in on the futures around 1915 As long as we're below there. I think you'd be pretty comfortable, but decision time has to come either Literally at the low that we had yesterday or the high from the 10th and also the 15th So the euro liked the pound very well set up going into the close of the week And someone's got to give right now the euro just trying to get a close above This high that we had back on wednesday evening. So I'd be watching that like a hawk Probably for a bit more confirmation given the sort of the the quietness of the calendar Probably an hour closed for confirmation before I'd be looking for a push towards the high that we had on wednesday And on the flip side if we were to break the low below sort of 118 64 that's when I'd say you're more than uh, well, you potentially be looking for a move back down towards that pivot Move into equities like amp said at the beginning of the brief and 50 day moving average has Being talked about as an area of support and you can see why both Yesterday but also on the the 11th and the 9th of september It acted very well as it had done in previous months as well So daily close below that it doesn't look too good You'd probably also want to see the low go as well 3300 3290 And that's when you might start to see a bit of panic However, for me, I would say you probably would want to see this previous high here go on the 23rd of july So that makes it an incredibly big area of support That the the bears would need price to to get below at the moment. It's finally set 50 day moving average the I think there's some of this check is to make sure yeah, the 21 day moving average above there and if you remember of course on wednesday I was talking about 34 24 As the level if we close above I think all-time highs come pretty quickly I stand by that completely and that's why daily closes are so key Yes, they saw a decent push to the downside fifth day moving moving average held things up quite well I'm patiently waiting from a personal point of view to get long above that Rather than getting in now, but that said, you know, uh, this this whole area 32 84 Decent price action there could well lead to the longs quick look over at the nasdaq You can see it looks pretty similar that that 21 day moving average and those highs of recent times are capping the upside And we had a triple bottom yesterday Really really key level we close the week below there And I think things could then start to maybe get ugly next week But at the moment it's held well and it's not the first time we've seen a triple bottom In equities that have led to a rally higher. So if you're not in a trade I don't think there's any harm in being patient, especially the quadruple witching Especially the last day of the week in saying I'm only going to get involved if we can get back above The highs that we've had from the 10th the 14th and the 21 day moving averages or sure below if we break that triple bottom In between there's obviously going to be Some interday trading opportunities, but for those bigger moves That's how I would look to to play that quick. Look at the dow before we have uh oil and gold to wrap things You can see the dow Certainly, you know It's got another sort of clear top albeit, um, you know above it's 21 day moving average So I think the nasdaq and the s&p look a bit cleaner Then the dow does right now, but that said the 50 day moving average Has been respected for the dow as well. So yeah nasdaq and the s&p for a bit more of a Cleaner trade in my opinion, but if we were to get above 28 347 on the dow You know, I think you then see 29 000 come in and if 29 000 comes in What's stopping that all-time high and donald trump tweeting? again Let's have a quick look over at oil Like and said all those moving averages Really coming into play right now and it's had a had a decent week. It really has I mean these these rallies at the beginning of the week sort of went a bit unnoticed We closed wednesday bang on a very key level support that we had on the third of september That then broke through thanks to some comments from from opa yesterday and of course, you know stops getting triggered It's now coming into the next key level for me the sort of next key resistance point where it has to hold here at 41 49 if it doesn't then I think you get back to the high that we saw around 44 bucks And that is a trade that i'm looking for medium term along above 43 71 to then go to 50 dollars With a stop, you know, two dollars below 50 Sort of marking a sort of psychological level as well as some previous resistance. I think that could be a good opportunity However, daily clothes, you know, again below the 40 dollars And I think the opportunity for a short here looks good as well So you can see the the two currency pairs we've gone to pound and euro very finely set up something It's going to give soon as with equities as we boil just have a quick look over at gold on that intraday Chart just to wrap things up and you can see it is trying to drift higher. I'd have the Resistance level. We have pretty much marked us up on today's high You can see some decent price action over the last sort of couple of sessions around this point Also going back to the 11th and the 14th. It's it's fairly well respected Given the time of the day right now our clothes above that for confirmation from a push to the upside To the downside if we were to move back below 1955 these triple tops that we had then I wouldn't want to stay long Any longer, but looking at that it's a range bound market over the last few trading sessions at the moment So we're taking it sort of step by step level by level I actually do quite like the look of gold and silver to come slightly bit lower before getting in looking around 1900 on gold 26 is on silver I like them as more medium term longs with good price action around those points because I appreciate they've been Tested a number of times, but yeah, that's uh, that's my sort of daily morning wrap there for for you and Obviously guys feel free to head over to my twitter throughout the day. I will be posting the charts as and when mute getting used to the the zoom delivery with Doing it live like this, but um, yeah, don't forget to subscribe to the channel And we got plenty of content coming. I know eddie's dropped a few videos as a big IPO Company called snowflake if you've never heard of it. It's actually generating quite a buzz This morning in in in the in some circles. So definitely check that out He puts out single stock stuff sam will drop a video as well over the weekend Where he'll look at exactly what he's just done there But for the entire week ahead and he normally puts out on a sunday So we've got to do is just find us amplify trading hit subscribe and click the bell icon to be notified as soon as we go live But yeah, thanks very much sam and I wish everyone a great weekend. Stay safe and see you monday okay guys