 Yeah, I hope everyone's doing well. I really do. And yeah, before we get into, I guess, more of the recent fundamentals and the sentiment analysis as well as some questions on trailing stops. I just wanted to really kind of cover really the fundamental risk sentiment analysis mindset and what you always need to keep in mind when having the approach that we do when it comes to our approach to combining fundamentals, sentiment and technical analysis, right? So, you know, really, I'll try and do this as succinctly as possible. I won't drag this out too long, but really, from a fundamental and risk sentiment analysis mindset, think in terms of probabilities and possibilities, yeah, not in absolutes. Think about what's probable or likely to happen and typically and usually happens, right? Because if we think very binary or in absolutes, you know, that life isn't like that and the markets are not like that, nothing is exact. So we have to think in terms of what is likely to happen. And as long as you have, or you feel that you have certain odds in your favor, yeah, when it comes to fundamental analysis, right? So if we know that typically, for example, when an interest, a central bank looks to hike rates, and another central bank is to cut rates or hold rates, you've got a bit of a divergence there, right? Now, what is likely to happen in that scenario? The scenario is, you know, forgetting what price doesn't really the short term and I'll get on to short term price, but over the, you know, medium to long term, what is likely to happen is that the central bank that is on the hiking cycle, generally will that currency would appreciate versus a currency that is, you know, potentially holding or even, you know, cutting rates, right? So does that mean that price is going to go up every single day or even every single week or even every single month in that interest rate hiking cycle? No, it's impossible. It just can't do that, right? For, you know, for liquidity reasons and the like. So we have to have more of a longer term, you know, medium to longer term perspective and I guess I'll get into that in a sec, right? But just think about, always think about what is probable, what is possible? We have to think, again, in terms of how many, again, this is what is known as confluence and then if you guys can see my pencil, can you see my pencil at the moment? Can you see that? Yeah, all right, brilliant. So just think in terms of, you know, pros and cons, right? Pros and cons. What are the pros of buying the US dollar? Yep, pros, cons. Yeah. And then just really, you know, think about it, GDP, excellent, they're growing inflation, is it above their 2% target? Yep, it's something that the central bank has to end up, you know, hiking rates, you know, are they affected by, for example, how effective would they be by the Ukrainian war, for example? You know, is that going to be a potential con? Right? We don't know. But at the end of the day, or is it maybe something that you might not know, right? But the point is, is that as long as you've got more, you know, ticks and crosses and checks in the pros column versus the cons column, that is how we, you know, in a very simplistic way is look at really the balance of probabilities. That's all we can do. Yeah. So think about what's probable, what's likely, and what typically happens and what usually happens under certain circumstances. Of course, you have to go a bit deeper, but that is really the baseline. Next is really time reveals all, right? So the emphasis on short-term price really should be given to market illiquity. So there's many times where, for example, you might want to be longer on a currency pair, but yet price, you know, in the short-term, hasn't done what it is that you expected to do, right? Again, nobody knows, no one has a clue where price is exactly going to reverse from, yes, we look at technical patterns, supply and demand, stock hunts and the like, but no one knows the exact level, right? And so we're just dealing in terms of probabilities. Now, when it comes to short-term price action, we have to understand that the market is an auction, right? And it's an auction for financial institutions, you know, to do business, right? To buy and sell at certain prices. So, you know, whether you want to call it the accumulation phase, whether you want to accumulate or distribute really the accurate, you know, description, I guess, is basically the market is an auction. So in the short-term, the financial institutions are really, you know, and I say short-term meaning over the course of maybe days, weeks and even months, right? It could be short-term if, you know, we're thinking in terms of maybe a year or two, yeah? And if prices, as we know, are going, what some people would say is a choppy market, a sideways, a ranging market is not such, it shouldn't be described as that. It should be really described as an auction, right, between, you know, sellers and buyers. That's all this is. Now, this range might represent, you know, I don't know, on a lower timeframe, it might represent, you know, 50 pips. On a daily timeframe, it might represent 300 pips. Nobody knows, right? Nobody knows to the extent of the value, yeah, of where, you know, traders are generally buying and selling. If we understand that in the future, potentially prices should be 5, 6, 700 pips higher, right? So it gives a chance to the financial institutions who understand and are more forward thinking and future thinking that they want to be buying and accumulating, right? Auctioning, yeah, the buyers, yeah. And again, they're taking profit up here as well, taking certain partial profits. But if you understand that over a certain time, and again, that might be, you know, the space of a week, it might be even a space of a month or two. But ultimately, if we're looking at price, we have to understand in the short term, yeah, that, you know, price is more driven by illiquidity, the accumulation of orders, the fact that market makers have to provide liquidity to the financial institutions, and they both have to make money, right? There's an agreement there, the market is not for, its secondary is for speculation, yeah, as far as us speculating on what price is going to do. But you have to understand this in the short term, that's what the market is. But in the medium to long term, right, so looking at fundamentals, you know, they generally will play themselves out, yeah? So time reveals all in the end, in the short term, well, actually not really in the short term, but in long term time reveals all, right? So fundamental analysis is about understanding what the value is currently, or potentially, the, you know, the option is right now, compared to maybe, you know, three, four, five, six months from now. You know, if, you know, the Federal Reserve are looking to high crates, what should be the future value and continue to high crates, you know, this year, what should be the future value of the dollar? Do you think it's going to be higher or lower? It should be higher, right? How it gets there, all we're looking for is pullbacks. That's it. Now, we have to look at, you know, fundamentals from a medium to long term time horizon. And, you know, we are looking to buy and stay ahead of the curve, right? By buying the rumor. And that's what fundamentals is ultimately about. Yeah, it's not about scalping. It's not about, you know, you know, scalping for maybe, you know, 10 pips, 20 pips, 30 pips. If you understand, yes, obviously we do make short-term gains as well. Because, you know, if you're entering into multiple positions, then, you know, you want to take, you know, some profits on the short-term, but generally you want to leave a position or two, you know, to swing trade, right? And that's really where the money is made on those big moves. If you can capture them and stay in for, you know, the trend long enough. But the point I'm trying to make is that we're trying to buy the rumor, right? Buy the rumor, sell the fact. And, you know, there is no rumor if you're just looking solely at price. You know, you can't decide what the rumor is from price action. Yeah, you have to decide what the rumor is from what the central banks are doing. Because they, those are the, and the financial institutions, because those are the guys that are determining what the value is going to be in the medium to long term. And even in the short-term, they're deciding what price is. Now, we have to be thought more forward thinking. So stop, you know, focusing so much on short-term price action, yeah, and focus more on where prices are likely to be. That's what investing is all about, right? Investments, you know, if you invest in property, you're thinking more long-term. If you're investing in a business, you're thinking about more long-term. That's where we need to have our mindset. When we're, you know, implementing fundamentals and risk sentiment analysis. And there are always going to be pullbacks on a, in a risk-on environment and pullbacks in a risk-off environment. Yeah, that's just the nature of price. Yeah, so wearing more of a risk-off environment, if we're looking at risk as a scale, whereas, you know, this is neutral and this is, you know, maybe more off, for example, and this is more on, yeah, where are we on the scale potentially? Yeah, probably somewhere around here, I would say. Whereas off is, you know, the extreme, an extreme off would be considered, you know, COVID-19 lockdowns in 2020. That was really the extreme risk-off. Nothing like that had happened, you know, in our lifetimes. So from that perspective, you know, maybe a world war might be, you know, considered an extreme event too, but, you know, maybe a regional war, a local war might not be that extreme or as extreme as something like a world war or a total, you know, economic lockdown. But the point I'm trying to make is this, sorry, is that regardless of what environment you're in, whether you're in extreme, on or extreme off, you're always going to have pullbacks in an uptrend. Yeah, well, what would be known as an uptrend or a downtrend, right? You're always going to have pullbacks. So don't, just because you're wearing a risk-off environment, you know, you can make the judgment called whether you want to trade, you know, risk-off sentiment, right? That's up to you, right? So again, you don't need to, you know, always think that, you know, that you're going to miss out on a trade, for example, you know, just because the market is going without you, yeah, and to the downside, there are going to be pullbacks, right? Just as though, just as there are pullbacks in an uptrend. So that's, you know, what we need to consider in a pullback can lead to a reversal, right? Nobody knows. Let's say, for example, we're in a risk-off environment and let me just go back a little bit, right? We're in a risk-off environment, which we are. And recently, you know, I know a few of you guys have bought the Euro and have done well, right? On the, you know, Euro yen, for example, I think somebody might have bought the Euro Swiss, I saw. I'm waiting for a buy-in at Euro Swiss at some point. And even the commodity currencies. Oh, was it you, Alexandros? Yeah, I thought I read it. But the point is, is that let's say, for example, we're in a risk-off and Alexandros has, you know, bought a setup around here, let's say, for example, managed to pick off the lows. And, you know, most people would say, oh, well, you know, we're in a downtrend. So why are you going lock? Why are you going, you know, why are you buying here? But obviously, we understand the buying room is selling the fact, prices being driven, you know, by sentiment and fundamentals and value. And nobody knows whether, you know, because Alexandros might have bought on a Monday, for example. No one knows, for example, on a Friday, whether there might be an agreement, yeah, between the Ukraine and the Russians, yeah, due to a ceasefire, right, there could be a ceasefire, there could be an agreement, that pullback could turn into, in fact, a great buying opportunity. Thing is, nobody knows. But if it doesn't turn into a into that, don't get, you know, don't start to think that fundamentals don't work or this sentiment doesn't work. It's just the case of you understanding that there are going to be pullbacks. A pullback doesn't mean it's going to be a reversal for sure. Yeah, all we do is we manage our trades, we might take some profit, leave a little bit on, you know, partial position on, you know, get ourselves to maybe break even or a small profit and then see what happens, right? That's ultimately what we're trying to do. And I always say that risk sentiment pushes prices or can push prices to where you want to be, you know, a buyer. Now, the timing of that is, is how we use the reason why we use our technical analysis, you know, we're not necessarily always trying to pick the absolute lows. If we do brilliant, if we don't, doesn't matter, right? Because if we, if we get this trade idea right, you might lose a couple of trades, one or two trades trying to get in long. But let's say, for example, you do get in long, and then we see prices, you know, do reverse and fundamentals do come into play, the sentiment dissipates, then you should really want to go for, you know, try to make as much as you can on the move to the upside, right? Exactly. And always risk a small amount, point five, I would even say smaller than that if you, if you can, right? But just understand that there's always going to be pullbacks in a risk off environment, and it's going to be risk, pullbacks in a risk, just like there are pullbacks in a risk on environment. So don't start phomoing to the downside or to the upside, because, you know, you think that price is just going to keep tanking and tanking and tanking. No, you know, it doesn't, doesn't happen like that. So there are always going to be opportunities. Yeah, so fundamental relationships can change over time. And I think the example that I really wanted to, to, to, I guess, look at, because what we, what generally a general overview, and I've mentioned this before, general overview of fundamentals is, and again, we have to deal in terms of, this is going back to thinking in terms of what's probable, like, I would say likely, usually in typical, yeah, but we, there's, there's a bit more that needs to go into it, because everybody knows, right? Or everyone should understand, you know, you can look this up on Google, generally, you know, that Swiss franc and the Japanese yen are generally seen as safe haven currencies, and 10 generally tends to strengthen in a risk, you know, of environment, right? But you, but again, you can't just take that as 100% gospel. Yes, we understand what's likely, what's typical, what's usual, what's probable to happen. But, but we can't just take that for granted, there still has to be a level of, because, you know, thinking, because not every single scenario is the same. So, and fundamental relationships do change over time. Yeah, so from a safe haven asset perspective, yeah, the euro wasn't really seen as a safe haven currency, or it wasn't typically seen as safe haven currency, but over the past year or so, I've seen, you know, articles that have, you know, gone into why the euro may start to become a safe haven currency, right? And this was a, by the way, this is in the safe, sorry, safe haven, the risk off sentiment channel, by the way, in the discord group, there's a, there's a, there's a paper study so you can read this whole paper and I really advise you do read it. And basically it talks about by, by Vesela Todorov, Todorova, and it talks about three major safe haven currencies are the dollar, the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc, yeah? And it says the euro is now in competition as an alternative safe haven currency, right? And this was written, nothing, this was published anyway in 2020, right? So economic alternative safe haven currencies. And, you know, the academic policy and policy interest in safe, safe assets is rising. The phenomenon safe haven is generally regarded as an investment that markets hope to retain or increase in value during turbulent times, right? So it goes through the reasons why historically and currently why, you know, the safe havens are the safe havens and why, you know, the market considers them safe havens, but also the fact that the euro is now becoming or now in, in, in competition as an alternative safe haven currency, yeah? So things do change over time and you have to be aware of those things. The relationships change, the world changes, the only constant in life is change. So from that perspective, you need to keep your finger on the pulse and not just take it for granted. How people traded 20 years ago, fundamentals, yes, are generally the same as far as, you know, interest rates, you know, generally mean, you know, an appreciating currency cuts mean a depreciating currency, right? But when it comes to certain relationships and risk sentiment, things do change. And again, you know, just to cover that. And finally, I guess nuances matter, yes? And not every risk environment and risk event, yeah, is the same because we have intermarket analysis and geographic considerations. Intermarket analysis is basically the study of how different markets are interconnected, right? And so we all know the example of Australia and China being trade partners and Australia being China's biggest trade port, a trade relationship, I guess, because Australia export a lot of commodities to China, right? They're the biggest buyer. And because geographically where Australia is, where China is, it makes sense, right? They're in that region. So whenever, if China starts to slow down, who is it going to affect the most? It's going to affect everybody, but more acutely, it's going to affect, you know, not only Australia because of the fact that they're, you know, one of their biggest importers and exporters and trade partners, but also just geographically, right? So certain risk events that might happen in Australia might affect China and vice versa, but will it really affect Canada, for example, yeah? Will it really affect the UK or Europe? So not every single risk event is the same. And Sam found this diagram recently, which is actually brilliant. And I don't know if any of you had seen this, but I did post this, I think it was from ING, not this particular thing, but ING, if you guys had watched the weekend fundamental analysis video I did in the group, and also I published one on YouTube, but I basically said that, and I showed the studies that, you know, the Ukraine and Russia war, yes, there's a risk off event, but everyone's wondering why the Australian dollar and New Zealand dollar isn't really being affected as much, right? Or why the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar is going higher against typical safe haven currencies. And this is really because of, again, the nuances, right? Geographically, where is the war and who's going to be the most affected? So what, you know, this chart is basically saying is that the distance from Kiev in Mars versus currency performance since the 24th of February. So the distance in miles, right, miles away from Kiev, you've got the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar, yeah, the furthest away, but they're doing, they are doing the best, right? You've got, you know, the UK somewhere around here, you know, they're not doing so well, you've got, you know, Canada and Japan somewhere around here, but also as well, Japan has strengthened from a safe haven perspective, but also as well, not against all currencies, right? So again, this is, this was what comes down to pair selection. You can't just start randomly just trading, you know, certain pairs. If you don't understand the nuances of why you're trading those pairs and what the risk impact, you know, is on those economies, which then affects the currency. Does everyone, you know, understand that, yeah? Yeah. Yeah. And don't worry if you're confused or you're thinking, well, how do we know? How do we know? It's, you know, it's, this will come with experience, right? And sometimes again, when you're not too sure, sit on your hands until things do become clear, right? This wasn't clear at the outset. This trade idea was definitely not clear at the absolute outset. But what happens is if you keep your finger on the pulse, if you keep reading the fundamentals, we'll get what the banks are saying. We read our bank analysis reports from Citibank, from ING, from Mizzouho, from MUFG, et cetera. And those guys will let you know, you know, the analysis, they will let you know what they're thinking and they will display it, you know, and we'll find it, right? So this is what we'll do. It's not that the aim is not to capture every single pip of the move. Yeah. If we could, if there's a 1000 pip move, if you capture 300 pips of that, brilliant. You know what I mean? That's excellent. You know, it's not our goal is not to try to pick the lows and take profit at that absolute highs. What our goal is, is to ride the wave at some point. Some ideas you'll get in earlier than others. But the thing is, is identifying those trade ideas. And you'll only identify those trade ideas if you understand fundamental analysis. Anyways, guys, I think that probably bring me to the end of the presentation. Just, I'll take to, you know, any questions before I do move on to our, you know, group call and look, look at what's going on currently. But any, any, any comments or any, any, any questions that you want to, you guys want to make? Yep. No. All good. Alexander Ross. Everyone else is good. All right. Brilliant. Brilliant. So keep this in mind, guys. Keep this in mind. Keep this in mind. Yeah. When, when you're applying this to, to, to situations. Anyways, all good, all good. No worries spent. So group call night for March is the night for March today keeps forgetting my days. Yeah. Night for March. Right. Somebody I think it might have been he's not here today. Unfortunately can't make it, but it was, who was it again? I can't remember who it was. Can't remember the name. Can't remember who it was. Someone's asking about, about trailing stops, right? Now trailing stops and basically what time frame. Now what you have to do or what you should do is really, you know, this is in the, the, the, the course is trouble.