 నాతితా ఆమరింా కారీ నంత్ వింప్నతా fingernaత్నత్నిన్ర్. షిమాపిఎందినంయర. నాంప్నినంత్నట్పది నవివిబితంత్న. వింినేయానింొా ఇదినిబర్న్యిలి కోార్. ఇదింాని వ్నినాన్యకలండికోపెవాంసండ ప్దక్యసంచాంచి. and communicate to the formers through SMS. In the second case, a prototype was discussed variant as a case study from Tamil Nadu. The weather windows have been identified earlier through permutation and combination process and by that for Tamil Nadu they have identified 54 weather windows which covers the entire మింి నానినాంచాస్కి. మోత్ప్కి అనిసకికిక్ మారిక్తోనికికిసి ఎఅత్గకిసి. ఇదిసిమి మిటిటక్టరి మరిత్టక్టికటికిని బంఘిమిరంచౕి� in the constant plot. So this computer after selection the server after developing the weather forecast goes to the weather window constant weather window is selected and any crop is needed the crop constant crop is being considered and agro advisory is automatically communicated to the farmers through SMS everything automated at one end our scientist and the other end the farmer in between all interface with all machines and servers and everything. Now it is a third type it is being done at form level especially at Australia this response forming see a type of forming system I can say form planning is being practiced at Australia till now it has been developed by steward et al there is a good concept since the individual land holding is more than 5000 hectares in Australia this system is going on very well with that country but this was also just at about 20 years back in India but somehow it was not taken by our farmers due to many reasons but it is a wonderful technology it can be practiced at the form level if the farmer is very much knowing the information about response forming let us discuss today this type of forming this is very good here you are combining the seasonal climate forecast with the individual form decisions no intervention from any agro advisory institution or anything else the farmer himself prepares the agro advisory based on the weather information he obtains from the constant meteorological organization of that country in respect of India this is India meteorological department if you go to Australia the beru of meteorology like that different countries have their own meteorological organization they provide seasonal climate forecast here only they consider the seasonal climate forecast of a season or in terms of India it is long term or long range weather forecast being considered so here in the people many people tried to give definition now I like to go to one example you know drought means no rainfall and dryness everything for this situation more than 100 definitions are available around the world similarly for this response forming also we could be able to spell out too many definitions but I have screened and like to provide about two or three so that you can understand what is response forming one is framing flexible adaptation strategies adaptation very very important for the forthcoming rainy season so you are preparing yourself you are meeting the challenge from the forthcoming seasons that is a definition the second one is it is a meteorology that identifies very very important critical value and quantify seasonal rainfall related risk so in advance you are able to identify the forthcoming seasonal rainfall risk and you can develop the strategies for addressing them at form level this is very very important form level means individual farmers level then the third definition says that coupling seasonal rainfall forecast with appropriate agronomic responses how the terminology gets deferred so when they define the response forming means you can able to understand what is response forming by different sources and another definition is given by somebody it is a flexible system of forming in which key form decisions key important priority decisions affecting crop water utilization see we were discussing about crop water requirement when we were discussing about rainfall I was telling that rice requires about 1400 mm pulses is 200 so based on the forthcoming rainfall season we estimate what would be the available water accordingly you can select your crop for that season this is the apt definition for this one more definition is it focus on water and its management form level similar to A and B then these are the some definition given but to overall response you are responding to my questions similar that response forming is not met in response to these forthcoming seasonal rainfall rainfall what you do at your form we call it as response forming now there must be a hypothesis this was tested experimentally at Australia they put a hypothesis that solution to forming problems may be found it is possible that is solution to forming problems may be found for improved forecast of expected seasonal rainfall behavior in the cropping season very nice you can able to select or you can able to provide a solution for the risk to be received from the forthcoming rainfall season this is a wonderful hypothesis where it is possible or not it was tested and this hypothesis was agreed that solutions are already available so you can pick up the solutions based on your knowledge based on the scientific knowledge to meet the challenge from the forthcoming rainfall season then there must be a aim also very wonderfully they have put it exploiting the high rainfall potential if rain comes more how to use it can you store it can you conserve it without losing to any sea or ocean so exploiting the high seasonal rainfall you change your land use pattern you change your cropping pattern from pulses to rise to exploit the high rainfall and minimizing the risk of crop failures during the poor rainfall season so you are meeting both the situations I was telling about weather code drought code and flood code so response forming covers both the course also so this is how this is the response forming is like that very very important to be considered then which forecast is suitable we have studied now cost and short range forecast then media range forecast of a different in nature that is a regional climate model numerical weather protection and also long range forecast seasonal climate forecast so we have land a little bit on these forecast types what are the forecast would be highly suitable for these response forming is your long range weather forecast and seasonal forecast because they have lead time 45 to 15 days earlier to the season you could be able to smell this is the quantity of rainfall you are going to get it so by that time you can prepare yourself for meeting the challenge so you can take a land use patterns see normally the farmer in Australia they cultivate wheat if a farmer has a 5000 hectares he may cultivate a 2000 hectares wheat suppose there is a drought then he will reduce the area 2000 hectares or 500 hectares even they call out the animals when the drought is anticipated they may have 50,000 blocks or 5000 kettles they mercilessly they reduce the cattle number to 100 or 50 so that forage can be fed in the case of the drought so they prepare themselves for the forthcoming seasonal rainfall you can select technology if drought comes means you can select the drought management technology like that many things are available in scientific knowledge so those can be rightly utilized for this purpose then where response forming useful can we practice in humid climate I was saying humid climate in humid climate rainfall and PIT potency of transportation are equal same if it is 2000 mm your rainfall the operation also 2000 mm there is no imbalance to equality so it cannot be practiced in humid environment it can be practiced in year 8 where the rainfall is lesser than 50% of the potential evapotranspiration annual basis semi-year 8 it is 0.5 to 0.8 I told already you kindly refer your earlier class notes then regions with the climate variability this is very very important variability means change in the climate now I can explain between the climate change and the climate variability earlier we have pendulum clocks so the pendulum oscillates like this so pendulum is here it goes to positive direction it comes to negative direction then comes to middle this is the climate variability this may be 5 years come to normal then negative side 5 years come to normal so oscillating normal code your drought code and the flood code this we call it as climate variability in the case of the climate change the pendulum weather goes to minus stage there permanently the mean stage there does not come to the normality that is the climate change so this technology is highly useful in the case of the climate variability I think you must have understand the difference between these two things so response forming must be highly suitable for this situation and also certain villages by having the indigenous knowledge they have developed the strategies against the flood and drought see we were discussing yesterday I hope climate managers such wonderful people are are still available in certain villages and they have tailored certain technologies local technologies to meet the weather operation situations now additional tool what other tools you want in addition to seasonal climate rainfall forecast you would you must have a document on answer time when the rainfall is going to set in a particular village or particular domain then these are some statistical conditional probability of rainfall conditional probability of rainfall means if some rainfall you fix a certain quantity of rainfall whether it comes or not that is a conditional probability in the probability of your fixed rainfall is 30% means you may not expect that amount of rainfall the conditional probability probability is more than 90% then you get definitely that rainfall you can decide your form decision making process then probability of initial probability of seasonal rainfall then rainfall return period and length of growing period form size information land use pattern these are all optional if you do not have do not worry you get your seasonal climate forecast and do your form decision making at your form level that seems to be very excellent now I like to produce a case study from Coimbatore whether the response forming was very good or bad so the normal crop of a particular village I am talking about a village not individual the normal crop of the particular villages rise during October November they get in addition to rainfall water support from your ground water the normal rainfall of the village is 420 during the season so 420 millimeter rise needs about 1400 millimeter so excess is being obtained from the ground water the seasonal climate forecast is says for the village that the village is going to get only 250 mm rainfall against 420 so deficit only 50% of the normal rainfall the farmers are going to get so farmers response to Asia what the farmers have decided 80% of the farmers did not believe our forecast they went for rise and 20% listened to our forecast they went for blocker this was 80% farmers went for conventional rise cultivation 20% having understood in the importance of weather forecast they had gone to blocker what happened the rainfall was around 250 millimeter as forecasted and rise whoever raised they met with failures and the fellow who raised the blocker came with success so here cost of cultivation farmer with blocker this is per acre or 4000 meter it is around 5000 rupees the fellow rise farmer along with the nursery development everything he went up to 12000 rupees revenue this fellow has got 7500 while this because of the crop earlier he did not get anything so gains to the farmer of the blocker is this 7400 and this cost of cultivation so 19500 minus your cost of cultivation so net gain is 14500 by listening to the forecast is it not wonderful of doing the response farming in the case of considering the seasonal rainfall so this is a best opportunity to utilize this mode so you use the agro advices whether it is coming from institution or through automated mode or through the response farming you do weather wise farming system and get reduce the risk and get your crop success that is all thank you very much.