 And welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour and it doesn't matter where you're at in the world you could be in the Ukraine as long as you're here with us at this time. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. S&Ps up 43 points. Is that right? Let me update this just to make sure. 38 points. It's been kind of light. We've seen some fairly big five point moves almost instantaneously and it so tells you that there is some problems with liquidity in the market. If it's moving that up and down there isn't that much. So the first thing you want to do is go out and check what it looks like for volume. And volume is pretty good. 7.8 billion shares on the day. Of course I was looking for Apple to be up. I thought maybe 170 bucks. It's been kind of wallowing around the 168 area for a while. I haven't looked at it in the last few. Let's see what it's got. 167.58. Certainly it looked a bit better than the rest of the market as did Microsoft. One of the reasons people asked me yesterday if we'd go short yesterday and I said no. Said if you're going to get an opportunity to reshort this market it's probably going to be on the close. And you're not going to really have a good idea on that until Monday morning or actually Sunday night futures. So it depends on what you're doing. I am going to probably not do anything and wait for the Sunday night futures. We've got trains going from Russia to the Ukraine border. They are full up of troops. Some of those train cars are basically blood mobiles with hundreds of gallons of blood. So they're assuming that there's going to be some real problems. And you know what? We got two things happening next week. First of all, China's stock market closed all week. That's got to make the people. In maybe China feel a little bit better if Russia is going to do something that can wait and get a week before everything settles down before they start trading again. The other thing is it is a moonless night February 1st in the Ukraine. And going back to probably 1900, probably even earlier, the idea was to forecast those. There's nothing like sneaking around in the dead of night to help things. It's a little different now. Satellites make it really tough to see or hide things like crane movements that we're seeing today. The administration is saying it's all but a done deal that they will invade in the next few days. So the question is what does that do to the stock market? It's pretty tough to say. I'm going to say that if they do invade with the thin market and China being off, I wouldn't be surprised to see two or three hundred points down next week in the S&P. If they don't, maybe we can go sideways through fund buying. We've got our markup for fund buying, which actually starts on, for the most part, I'm starting to get a fairly decent model. But normally you get maybe 10% of it in buy or 15% of it in buy the first. It depends on how the dates fall. But of course the last day of the month is Monday. So it's supposed to be the last two days of the month, first three days of the month. You're supposed to be 100% invested if you have a fund. And then the money manager will hedge that position if he thinks it's doing better or worse. So you've got really Monday through Thursday for fund buying. Could they hold it up all the way through that without a problem? But yeah, I mean, it's hard to remember a market that looked weaker and had just a couple of tent poles holding the whole thing up. So at best, I think you go sideways into the third. At worst, we actually get the news that everybody's expecting that Russia has invaded the crane. They want that for a variety of reasons. They like the land. More than anything, it's worth about 30% of the wheat production. And that's after out of about 50% of the wheat production in all of Europe and in the world too. We're the other big wheat producers out here. So yeah, they got kind of the green light from the administration. No one's saying that we're going to do anything. We've kind of rattled our swords by saying we've put people on alert. I don't know what good that does. By the time they got there, it would all be over. So kind of a paper tiger here for Western democracies, including the US, not a lot of leadership. And all it can make me think of is Germany invading Poland and Czechoslovakia and many of the other countries why most of the people that talked a great deal about caring about others look the other way. It's not our problem. These things tend to move around the world very quickly though. You never know that one spark moves another one. For us, it doesn't change a great deal in the very short term, but it does change the perception of the USA is kind of someone who can make things happen in world events. We're the only one that has a really big stick. You know what? It's tough. To me, the bigger problem is China. There's really nothing done but lip service for the Ukraine, which you can make a case that it's not in our national interest. It just kind of gives the green light for China to go in and say that it's ours. We're just going to take it. What are you going to do? Much less, we shoot back. What is that going to do to the stock market? So there's a lot of questions about what right and wrong is probably not an easy question to answer. We don't, any of us know the truth in advance and why history gives us a guide. Things aren't exactly all the same, but I would say that if I was a despot who loved killing tens of millions of my own citizens and harvesting their organs and selling them, i.e. China, thanks by the way to the NBA owner who said no one cares about that stuff. Apparently he didn't think about me, but you know there's a lot of problems. I also think that there are problems for companies like Apple and the NBA and Nike that uses that slave labor. Maybe it becomes more of an issue. People ignore a lot of things until it shows up. We'll be back after this. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of leased resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find the path of leased resistance. David White's trading newsletter, The Path of Leased Resistance, is delivered daily before the markets open to make every trading day an easy win. Visit TFNN.com today and subscribe to David White's ultimate trading newsletter for $119 a month and try all of our newsletters risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be TFNN, educating investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648. Internationally at 727-873-7618. On this day in 1986, a cold morning like we're going to have down here in Florida tomorrow, the space shuttle challenger broke apart after liftoff killing all seven astronauts on board, and maybe one of the best speeches ever by a president of the United States, probably just behind the Gettysburg Address. Ladies and gentlemen, I'd plan to speak to you tonight to report on the State of the Union, but the events of earlier today have led me to change those plans. Today is a day for mourning and remembering. Nancy and I are pained to the core of the tragedy of the shuttle challenger. We know we share this pain with all the people of our country. This is truly a national loss. 19 years ago, almost to the day, we lost three astronauts in a terrible accident on the ground, but we've never lost an astronaut in flight. We've never had a tragedy like this, and perhaps we've forgotten the courage it took for the crew of the shuttle. But they, the Challenger 7, were aware of the dangers, but overcame them and did their jobs brilliantly. We mourn seven heroes, Michael Smith, Dick Scoby, Judith Resnick, Ronald McNair, Allison Onizuka, Gregory Jarvis, and Christa McAuliffe. We mourn their loss as a nation together. So, yeah, always a big day. Everybody, you know, that were, it was a little older than me remembered where they were when JFK got shot. For my generation, a little bit after that, it was all about this day in pretty much 9-11. But we'll always remember where we were on those big days. I remember how this changed my life. I was in a meeting trying to sell a ton of computers to W.R. Grace, a big outfit downtown. And right in the middle of the presentation, we'd worked on in a big deal for over three or four months that was going to be my salary for the year. They started running into the room and turning on the big TV and showing the space shuttle blow up over and over again. So I did what everybody else did. I thought I should do anyway, which is I went and quit because the rest of the year was going to be a wash and got a ticket to take a cruise down in Miami. But that was me. A week later, I was trying to forget it and having a nice cruise. And I'll always remember not only the cruise, but I'll remember getting into the cab and coming and going back to the airport. The reason why is as soon as the cab door shut and the cabbie turned on the radio, Phil Collins came on with the song Take Me Home. And sometimes you just can't put all that stuff together and wonder how it all comes exactly that way you turn on the radio. And it's not halfway through the song. It's really just started. And fairly memorable two weeks for me. As we get ready to go, we'll take a look at some of the earnings. As I said, it got some emails. I'm looking at if there is no invasion by Russia, probably 30, maybe 40 points higher in the S&Ps on the open on Monday. If they do 200 points down. So the risk reward is not very balanced at all. I'm all cash going into it. But we also have to think about just how some of these earnings are really not that bad yet as we go into it. But the stories are starting to change a bit. Volume on Apple is fairly good. And of course they've done much better. But all the way up through Christmas, I said one thing and that is it was going to be a FedEx Christmas. If you could throw it on a 747 in Seoul, Korea or in Japan or China and get it here and avoid all the problems with the shipping in Long Beach. That's where the action was going to be. And that's where the action actually happened. We've got a lot of earnings coming in next week also. I don't think they're going to be very good. One of the reasons why I wasn't ready to go south on a big way on the indexes this week was that this is the strongest part of the lineup for earnings. Next week, a much bigger problem. Most of those, if they do okay, will be rather amazing. They can be actually fairly weak. Not much change. Give me a call today, 877-927-6648. Other things going on in the market already in progress over most of TFNN are the earnings. Let's see if we can't go through those fairly quickly. Booze Hamilton, which is kind of the Palantir of its time. Not a good day for Palantir fans to see Booze Allen. I've talked about this a bit. That is, if you want to really play Palantir, you probably need to be watching Booze Allen. It wasn't really making a lot of really good signs. It didn't make horrible signs, but not very good here. From the people that brought you, Mr. Snowden, the Booze Allen folks out here blowing through the lows, the volume is already enough. Is it probably going to go a lot lower? I don't think so, but kind of one of the bigger losers of the day. SYF, down about 9.5% is Synchrony Financial. This is broken through the lows. It's done it with volume. The next low coming up is around 3730 to 3780-ish. That's the March 25th low of last year. That had 8 million shares. You already have 7.5. You've got enough volume to pretty much push you back down to 3770. Western Digital, after Seagate, things probably looked a little bit better. It's not the end of the world, but it's pretty close. Western Digital down to its previous low 4950 that had 18 million shares. You've got 15 million and kind of a doji out here. A lot more energy on the way down off this January 5th high. Of course, earlier in the week he had Seagate, which actually did fairly good on the moment, but almost instantly gave it all back up yesterday. That was kind of a sign that maybe things weren't as good as everybody wanted, but this is kind of what you're looking for to go short. That is that you have to have steel ones, if you know what I'm talking about, to short these stocks sometimes, but that's certainly what you had at the move back in Seagate early yesterday morning, only to give it back up. Not a whole lot down here, but certainly 100. There's a double gap, or actually a triple gap at 100, which really makes me think that's where Seagate's going. We've got more on our list out here. WSC, Caterpillar, CVX, Mondalys, Juniper Networks, Charter Communication, Apple, Good, DMI. Good's up. I'm going to have to go back. Having fun trading the markets, but having trouble finding like-minded individuals to discuss your trading and investment ideas with? Become an Apex Predator in the trading markets and join the Tiger's Den Trading Room only at tfnn.com. The Tiger's Den is an exclusive trading room where successful traders from around the world come to exchange trades and ideas. Join the den and surround yourself with these sharpest minds in the trading world. Subscribers to the Tiger's Den are also the first to have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other Tigers and Tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis, and discuss the market action all trading day. Subscribe to the Tiger's Den risk-free with our 30-day money-back guarantee and become part of the TFNN trading community. 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Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of The Art of Timing the Trade Charts today by visiting TFNN.com. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. We are back. And what do we have here? And we'll go through the other winners and losers out here. On the top end of the day is Visa, of course, higher interest rates, probably making those guys a little bit more card using this Christmas. Pretty good, but 7.6% higher. You got some decent rates, a decent pop-up here. Resistance, though, probably pretty tough at about $3.28. You do have a good one. I do suspect that if the market continues to head lower, that this may be... Oh, the gold fields. Why didn't I say that? Let's do this here. That's wrong. Visa. There we go. So, yeah, you've got a fairly good... You got a big gap down for Visa on the 27th of October of last year with 23 million shares. You've got about 18 million shares, so it's good, but yeah, you probably may have another five, six bucks in this. But, man, all these things, if we end up selling off on Monday, everything is going to sell off. So, that would be it. 877-927-6648. What else do we have out here in the emails? Pete wants to know, and his brother, Repie, what's the short interest on Apple? That just came out for the bimonthly. So, we'll talk about both the bimonthly and the FINRA report data. There we go. Okay. Shares short, 90 million shares of Apple short ratios, about 1%. They got a lot of shorts. Percentage of the flow to about half a percent. So, there's not a whole lot there, but it doesn't take much because it's... You know, sometimes you need to look at these big companies as how much is actually in the float and not just locked away from people that have owned the thing for 90, since it was 10 bucks, which a lot of these big funds have. They've had it forever. So, you want to know how much is out there in the float that actually gets turned over, and that is actually much higher. When we look at... Let me find it here. Okay. We'll get Mr. Apple here. You had 16% short yesterday. Should be for a stock like that, probably around eight. You got cash, you got everything. So, is this a giant hedge? No, but it's... When you're really talking about this, or the Dow stocks of the Dow stocks, 96, 7% are institutionally owned. There aren't but about 4% of all the Dow stocks that have shares available to trade. So, when you look at those, when you look at something like Apple, 16% probably doesn't sound a lot compared to 30 or 40% that we see in things like Nvidia. But it's certainly one of those things where you get a... You should get a sense that 16% is actually rather large for a company that was probably going to do well on earnings. I don't know of anybody that really said they were going to do poorly, but I knew a lot of people that just thought that they were overpriced and so that was going to be it. But what do we have? We've got a couple of companies really that are left to be bulletproof. One being Microsoft and the other one being Apple at this point. But at some point, even those turn tail and run. Let's take a quick look and see how Microsoft is doing. The more it holds 300, the better it is. You did get a lot of really bad volume back here at 276.05. Probably a 75% chance that you retest that. And my guess is you'd retest it fairly quickly if the invasion of the Ukraine goes on this weekend. As I put it earlier, 50% chance, maybe more, but I'm going to put it at a 50% chance so I don't get over the tips of my skis with any kind of position. But 30, 40 points higher for the S&P on Monday morning. If nothing happens, then 200 points lower if something does happen. And I don't feel warm and fuzzy when you have generals coming up saying they're going to fight disinformation. I don't think Putin gives one rat's ass about what these guys think that they're going to do by issuing propaganda. The reality will be that they own the Ukraine. 877-927-6648. Anyway, you got some decent short interest on a daily basis. And again, even though it's only 1% of the overall shares, just remember that probably only about 10% or maybe 5% of Apple shares ever trade in a week. So if you got 1%, that's pretty high. You don't have to trade that much of Apple to be a big deal. Now, if it's not institutionally owned, that's a much bigger deal on other things. Okay, what else do we have? I'll go back here. 16703. What is my belief on the close today from Jeremy? I think we could close around 4350. And that's kind of where we were looking. I knew that when we were up hired this morning, it probably wouldn't hold. And lower it wouldn't get a hold. As we said yesterday, generally in these big moves in the market, they're going to make you sweat all the way through the weekend if you hold a position. I'm not going to sweat at all. I'm going to take it easy. We've got a big festival here in Tampa this weekend. And what I'll do is get a lot of sleep on Sunday and start looking at trading at 7 o'clock Sunday night. Give me an email at path at tfnn.com. Okay, Caterpillar, a question on that, C-A-T. Probably rather predictable a lot about what they're talking about going forward. And that is interest rates go higher. A lot of the things that take a lot of cash are harder to get. And so I'm not really surprised that they're kind of thinking that if interest rates are going higher that Caterpillar in their business is probably going a little lower. You have a lot of volume. Next low out here is 109, or excuse me, 190.44 at 3.5 million shares. You already have 6 million, almost 7 million shares on the downside today. So not really doing well on that. U.S. Steel a little stronger today. Probably just too many shorts in the market on that, but really nothing to write home about other than maybe too hard. The Robin Hood folk were out talking on the CNBC's financial entertainment shows. Probably a little too short too on that right now. Got a little bit of a bounce back, but in the scheme of things, a dead cat bounce and a downtrend that started August 4th of 2000. We'll be back in a bit. Second home or investment property, Tiger Realty has the experience across all areas of real estate in the Tampa Bay area to help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. 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The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. Don't forget, you can listen to tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. As we return, as you said, Robin Hood. A little bounce out here, but I think that's going on. And yes, I have a question of where I think the market's going to close today, and that's 43.50. Probably fairly close unless we get some news before the end of the day. My guess is we may vary up and down. The real action is going to be Sunday night, Monday, depending on what happens in the Ukraine. And no, I don't tend to predict it very much. I do put odds on it. If I'm over 80%, I'm generally pretty much wrong. But you know what? 50% tells me I really don't have an edge on what happens. But certainly the risk reward says that I want to be all cash going into Sunday night when everything opens back up. But man, if the stars, if Russia, there isn't going to be a better time to do it with the Chinese markets closed, and they can at least not irritate two other world powers, but just one. 877-927-6648, we've got it back here. We've got people pushing new conspiracy theories. That is, the planetary guys took out the bridge so that they could get more money for infrastructure. Well, I don't know. My guess is when I saw it, it was a bridge way out in the middle of the woods. It didn't look like anybody went across it anyway. But what can I say? Where things have happened, anything to distract from what's going on now, I would imagine. Wag the dog, as they say in politics. Let's see, what else do we have? Take a look at Mondaliz, MDLZ. And yeah, down a little bit here. What is this? Off 3%. Is the end of the world for this one? No, you're at support. Well, you've got a little bounce off the lows here. Still not good. My guess is a downtrend, maybe to 62-ish, got a low at 58-2, which could be problematic. We looked at that OLN, OLN, maker of many chemicals. I remember buying their products early for cleaning my gun and other stuff like that. I wonder if that's the same thing. And a little rollover off here, off the top. But I don't see a whole lot of that. I looked at that. What do I think about CLAC, K-L-A-C. Another semi. Well, you got half volume. You're certainly at support. You can see that today. Gapped up on 2.3 million shares on the October 28th. You're back into that with 1.3 million shares. That's exactly what you're looking for. The downside is what people take away from this weekend and geopolitical events. So that is problematic. Again, I wouldn't be sticking my neck out. I'd much rather react to what happens early next week than think anything else. Question about BMI and other earnings loser, winner actually, kind of a rollback. Not a huge volume stock, but a nice move out here today. A couple hundred thousand shares. What is this? 120,000 shares back on the other part. Let's take a look at PLTR. Well, actually not bad here. This is another one testing previous lows. Not as bad as Booze Hamilton. $11.75 with 111 million shares. You got 44 today. But again, this all has to do, especially with PLTR about geopolitical events. Yeah, I do. Hang on a second here. I'll answer that as soon as I get off the air. What else do we have? Colgate, Palmolive not doing much. PSX. Take a look at that. This is kind of interesting. Philip 66 down. He got a little bit of volume out here, but would say that's the end of it. Hard for me to think that nothing or much of anything actually changes. I do think you're kind of in a triangle out here. So you're probably going to hover around 85. Yeah, if you're looking for someplace safe to play and you just feel like you got to be in something over the weekend, the only thing that looks good at all is energy. And you know, you got to think that maybe there's a few things that could move higher on bad new geopolitical news, but crude oil, probably one of the better ones out there. Philip 66, not a bad sign out here on earnings. But again, looks to me like 85 ish is where this thing wants to come hold around. Yeah, we shall see. For like I said, I'm putting at a 50% rate up for 25% a week ago. So we shall see. 877-927-6648 path at tfnn.com. On the lead caterpillar CS, let's take a look at CVX and Chevron, same kind of thing. He had earnings, maybe it was a little out over the tips of their skis. But my guess is this thing is probably going to settle around 130. But probably up on Monday if nothing happens, probably flat if something does happen or maybe a little higher. I can't think much of it. What do I think about gold these days? It shouldn't have broke. It did break. I didn't get into it yesterday. I kind of started my train of thought derailed and went somewhere else. But gold really looks to me like it wants to come back on the GLD back to 160-97. That's the low back here of September 29th. And you should have been able to blow it out this week. You didn't. You had the volume. It still didn't do it. The higher interest rates from Powell. You'd really have to see him double back on any of this. But I think what we have is higher interest rates. It kills the economy. Not only does it kill the economy, it puts us back into a deflationary spiral. And that's probably the best answer I can come up with on why gold is not acting and hasn't acted correctly for a while. The deflationary spiral that could start. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. 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As we return, it looks like we're going to have a special guest following the power trading hour. That is the one and only Basil Chapman, the man from South Africa, the tennis pro, the man, the legend Basil Chapman. Doing Yeoman's work today, by the way. I find it hard doing 30 minutes, much less an hour. Him doing double triple duty today. Yeoman's work. I look forward to him wrapping up the week. And that's kind of it for that. We got about a minute, a couple minutes to go. But that's it. Looking for kind of a flat close out here. We'll see how close that does come to that. I was thinking around 4350-ish. We'll see what the close brings in. But you know, I'm a big fan and everybody knows it's listened for a long time of the Karate Kid and Mr. Miyagi saying the best way to avoid fight not be there. Well, I think there's probably going to be a fight. I don't know which way it's going to go, but don't have to. I can just react on Sunday night or Monday, depending on what happens. In the meantime, I've got all my cash in a basket, and I can change my ideas or thesis at will. I not have to worry about taking a big hit over the weekend. And sometimes that's worth more than the money that you could make if you don't know the outcome of a binary decision, which is certainly what we're going to see this, uh, see on Monday. Yes or no. Probably not getting a little pregnant going into, uh, hang on for Basil. And as always, so when you can, which I did, instead of when I have to, I did. And we'll see you here Monday. Same bat channel. Same bat.