 Okay, very good morning to you. Hope you are well. Tuesday 30th of July, getting straight into the briefing and as you can see probably the main topic is some further downside in the British Pound scene overnight. Cable has briefly touched in the future space around 121.50 as Boris Johnson issues his ultimatum to the EU over Brexit talks as Pound slumps. Very much a coordinated approach of course that we saw yesterday from Dominic Rabb to Michael Gove, Siji Javid and his planning as well for the amount of money they're going to be spending in preparation for a no deal and so really that's the main story of the morning if we quickly flick over to the chart overnight during the Asia-Pacific session as the cable pair really has broke down further after what had been pretty sizable downward move as Europe came into the market yesterday this was the price activity from yesterday and then we kind of consolidated here but you could see the the shallowness of those pullbacks on the retest of around that support level when that gave way which was during the really the beginning of the Asian session then we had another push down quite aggressively to the downside and if we look at the daily continuation chart you know this is exactly the levels that Sam and I were looking at yesterday we're kind of talking that now we were through that quite critical point of technical support given the fundamental view that you know Boris really is just doing exactly what we had thought which is really talking up this aggressive stance on the real credible threat on do or die no deal and so therefore with the fact that there's not a lot of technical support there we've run all the way down to test pretty much where we were saying at 34 which would be those previous loads that we had printed back in March of 2017 downside then the real this is that kind of support area with the lower bound being that double bottom that we had initially right after the e referendum itself in the months thereafter this is when if you remember the catalyst for that run lower here was when Theresa May first uttered the words hard Brexit in the Conservative Party conference at the beginning of October that initiated that breach then of that previous post referendum low and we had that retest in the beginning of 2017 so right back there at the moment and I think personally unsurprisingly so irrespective of the fact that I still don't think no deal is going to happen again just to explain my thoughts behind that I do think this is purely political posturing by Boris all gearing up for a sending a bit of a signal to Europe sure but more really trying to resonate with the growing dissatisfaction of the broader national public about the state of this Brexit negotiation under May's leadership and I think he's talking to farmers in Wales today but he's been doing definitely the tour of the the more leave-minded areas and as such then lining up this general election the one thing I would say is that if the strategy is for power and Boris Johnson does core general election and gets a better composition a larger majority in Parliament don't forget the last thing he wants then if he seals in that premiership under a new mandate is is a no deal he definitely wouldn't want that because then he is the Prime Minister for the next five years and God forbid he'd have to deal with a no deal situation so again a lot of this is all politics rather than I think actual credible idea that we're gonna have this no deal I still think that's not gonna happen but regardless of that in the short term though the market has to respond to the idea that no deal if you like I guess I'm talking more in my explanation of the medium term political kind of path that we're going down but in the interim period obviously the pound has to reprice for the risks on the table and given the technical breaches of key levels hence the reason why you get such a quick run to the downside I mean we've basically gone a good three points in the case of a day this would really be the telling area though again this 120 to 121 hand or if that breaks well I mean I'll let Sam go over that in a bit more detail but then certainly that would be significant and whether or not we could you know given the status now that we repriced essentially on two different occasions really this was the the Boris coming in on the nomination on the fact that really he had no credible opposition in that Tory leadership race and now down to where we are at the moment so if you think about it Boris Johnson priced in we've now basically moved from about a 134 handle from around here 132 handle all the way down to 120 so he's taken a good 12 points out of the pound with his posturing at the moment perhaps that's fair value for the moment we shall see but yeah other than that really the market is fairly fairly tame just seeing the nasdaq future here printing a fresh load just testing close to its pivot level likewise in the S&P as the DAX has come under a little bit of downside pressure it's been a couple of earnings reports this morning just to give you a bit of a flavor of some of the percentage movers Lufthansa in Germany down about 2.8 percent however CNP P are up 3.2 like it been keys on the other hand are down 6.4 and centric in the footsie down 8.6 percent so pretty hefty losses there for the latter so pretty mixed with the earnings perspective this morning otherwise elsewhere looking at WSI crude oil moving a little higher this morning nothing really new to report on the Iranian front or anything in the Persian Gulf and that regard and fixed income markets are essentially flat this morning the slight bid scene in gold prices having just retested overnight or getting up to testing the overnight Asia Pacific high level that we printed in the futures here around the 38 mark just going back then really as I said not much in the way of new breaking news it's really going to shift things this morning overall then probably be more inclined to be looking at the technical setup of the charts with the pound definitely some of those downside levels that need watching for the rest of today but I think given the size of yesterday's move in the one scene overnight maybe a little bit of a pull back before then the next push down to retest those lower bound levels could could be on the cards the other thing that happened overnight and the Japanese yen if anything actually strengthened rather than reek weakened because there obviously was a few outside bets that potentially the Bank of Japan could have done something or more with easing but essentially they stood pat the Bank of Japan kept its monetary policy unchanged while trimming its inflation forecast taking a bit of a wait-and-see approach given the fact that we've got the Federal Reserve coming on Wednesday to see what they have to say perhaps given how as we said before how dovishly priced the market is if the Fed don't really commit of course they'll cut rates if they cut 25 though and aren't so explicit with further easing to come if that strengthens the dollar then by default that will weaken the yen and so it kind of plays into the BOJ's hands so perhaps they're they're taking the option of just waiting and seeing what they have to say because they've obviously got the flexibility that they could always come out through their central bankers and and rearm market participants with new forward guidance if necessary through speeches the quarterly outlet report from the BOJ they said risk to inflation and economic activity are both skewed to the downside with the latter due particularly to developments seen overseas and of course that including protectionism coming out of the United States of America so never all great movement seen on the back of that as I said if anything maybe a little bit unwinding of those who are potentially looking at outside bets of easing action that the BOJ were slightly disappointed by the fact that nothing happened otherwise calendar just going back to the weekly snapshot US trade representative Lighthizer and Treasury Secretary Mnuchin obviously commenced their first of two days of talks face to face with their Chinese counterparts over trying to move this idea of the trade negotiation forward however state media again repeating overnight trying to dampen expectations here lower the bar suggesting that really there's going to be very little concrete outcome out of these talks which has been our baseline scenario as discussed in the briefing on Monday really what the Chinese want the Chinese the Americans are not going to give and so I very much expect then potentially a little bit of a of a downside risk factor to this IE as complete loggerheads but I would say that really what we're lining up here is just the commitment to keep on talking to keep the dialogue going would be my my expectation so given the fact that they're in China in Shanghai the time difference being what eight hours or so meaning that really we need to start looking out for comments as we get in towards the late morning I suggest for any potential updates the usual keep an eye on Trump Twitter feed and also that Chinese journalists of the state media as well for any breaking developments there otherwise on the earnings front few things look out for pre-market proxen gamble Merc Pfizer probably the biggest of the pre-market names and of course you've got the tech giant Apple after market their earnings for expected at two dollars ten revenues at fifty three point three six billion that's their expectations analysts of course will look at the iPhone sales for revenue as well as their services division it's going to be the two key things obviously they're pivoting away from such reliance being one dimensional from the iPhone remember as well they've stopped listing their specific iPhone unit sale number so we've got to derive that out of the actual revenue figure itself going forward now but again the company trying to move away from that into services which includes the app store Apple music iCloud Apple care and the Apple news plus subscription service which is just coming on to the market we've also got things like their streaming services as competitors for like Netflix and Disney for and so on so yeah probably Apple after market will be quite interesting China of course will also be a major focus for investors as growth there has been it's been difficult just giving the aforementioned trade war situation so slow down potentially in the Asia Pacific region but don't lean out of China the performance of the service industry and this is that the service products i should say and does that continue to grow taking away the emphasis from the iPhone and how does that latter product also stand up on the revenue figure as well i'll be looking for from Apple today calendar wise what have we got well we've already had the first of the German state CPIs Saxony came in at 0.4 percent against previous 0.5 the year in the year 1.6 against 1.8 so as you can see no real reaction and quite rightly so in the likes of European assets those data points not surprising really in any way we'll get there the rest of the German state CPI is littered through the morning Brandenburg, Baden-Württemberg, Bavaria and the rest the Pan-German figure not due until one o'clock but be expecting that if it follows suit from Saxony to be a bit of a non-market mover 10 o'clock some Eurozone data these are the various business climate and sentiment figures very rarely do they move the market so I wouldn't really factor that in as much a consideration for a catalyst for price movement so really it's not until we get into the US afternoon so aside from any trade updates from those talks going on in in Shanghai from a US data perspective you've got the core PCE numbers personal income figure to look out for these were coming up 130 US consumer confidence at 3 p.m. London and then the API all of the trees line till the evening as per usual and that's pretty much it not really too much more for me to mention so without further ado I'll hand you over to Mr North and he can look over the charts with a technical perspective thanks very much guys thank you Mr Trump what better place again to start with than that pound they're not looking too good this morning we'll start more intraday and just have a look back at yes they can see pretty much all down from from the morning I guess the s1 or the previous low of the day which coming in around 91 of the futures would would be a place people would potentially look to go short the risk reward of that I guess if you're looking at the low of the day isn't the worst trade in the world but I do agree with and we you know wouldn't be too surprised to see a bit of a recovery before we then maybe did push higher so well I think it's not the worst trade in the world going short and previous low if we could get any retracement higher that would be more favourable and looking just where we are and put this now on to the weekly chart let's get rid of the pivots to clear it up and you can see just how low price is now and that trend line that we broke through the beginning of the week that never really came back to get retested and that would be some move for that to happen anytime from now just below where we're trading or the low of the day 21 31 in the future you're looking at the the low from the 6th of March so that's something that you know people I'm sure will have marked up and you see just how close we got to that point 16 ticks or so so you know going back to that that week that would be the the next level people would would focus on and then fat doesn't hold them suddenly you're looking at the the post-Brexit low pretty much bang on 120 on the futures there so for the pound I've prioritised you know previous levels of what acted as a bit of support from yesterday to get in so maybe looking more to around 122 39 that does seem relatively far away for now but we're just trading on that previous low of the day so probably worth a little go on here but I think if we can get it higher that will be the the priority there having a look over Euro relatively choppy this morning we can find in that range we were talking about in the briefing yesterday with s1 and and what would have been yesterday's or Friday's highs and lows you can see the s1 and Friday's low work pretty much bang on and you know whether you could have taken this on at 8 15 or not with Friday's high on the R1 because it was quite late but you can see just how well that had worked and those those ranges still obviously well intact today the pivot chopped through quite a bit and we've got some data probably worth having one of these trend lines on from the top you can see we're getting a level support from the morning but the key level here is going to be to the upside yesterday's high 1194 and a half into the downside around 111 56 a relatively small range but those are the key levels that people certainly be looking at having a look over at stocks because we can just see here on the open a further push down in the Dax and we had just before the open I was just looking at this before coming on that we had broken through this trend line retested it already so just before 8 o'clock you can see 15 minutes before we did break down and we're just having another test of that low of the day which is key you've got all this support point from yesterday afternoon and in turn if that was to go then maybe you're going to get a further break down in S&P which you can see is starting to happen here we had some support on the pivot from this trend line starting at a similar time to the Dax and that's just trying to drift lower here bit of support on the futures 3019 the just below we're keeping an eye on the Dax to really lead the way here gold and oil to wrap things you can see relatively range bound as well for oil you can see we didn't quite get down in the morning session to the S1 and overnight broke through that R1 and Fridays high we still haven't got a test of that longer term trend line to come back and that looks like it will be coming in around the R1 which is also that key point 1440 and I guess really depends where you look at it 1444 those previous highs from the last few sessions so that would be somewhere to have marked up for sure around the R1 afternoons high is this morning's low so that's a key point as well you can see we're just relatively choppy around where we're trading now we did try to make a new high or we briefly did make a new high for the day about the first few tests of that holding quite well so mini-ranging gold worth probably waiting for the break either way in that oil pushed higher end of the session yesterday we we had a decent break early in the session I just draw this trend line on it wasn't I suppose it was quite choppy really the trend line but once that had broken through retest and went higher and even acted as some support a later on post three o'clock and we have drifted on since then obviously levels to be aware of to the upside around 57 64 yesterday of last week's high I should say and then there's a lot of support which held price from yesterday Thursday and Friday a long way down but 55 79 area 80 area somewhere we focus on bit closer to home looking at the resistance from the 25th which did break through yesterday and retest around $56 going shorter term and we'd have just had this this breakthrough I'll be keeping an aisle on what happens on the retest again of this trend line and all the first retest how the breaking acted really well but keep an eye here 57 20 for oil on how that reacts quick to covert the backs again just to see if we are getting a follow-through in US equities you can see trying to now break and confirming that break of yesterday's low next sort of level for the DAX where you got some from Thursday and Wednesday as well so a fair bit of support to go but in early morning trade equities just coming under a bit of pressure would prioritize a move higher in the pound to then get short if we can given just the extent of the move lower yesterday any questions as usual please do let us know but if not I hope you will have a great trading day