 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The English Premier League is back this weekend They have their first man think of the year and it comes with some news Harry Kane potentially on the move We're gonna talk about double Harry Kane We'll also talk about this week's game by bringing back Austin Cass It has been far too long to do that Austin here on the show We'll break down his thoughts in the Harry Kane transfer We'll talk about this week's matches and the futures market to get you ready for another year in the EPL And then I'll talk some NASCAR later on this is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a digital media managing editor for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Austin Cass You can check him out on Twitter at Austin Cass He's another one of the higher-ups here for us over at Fandall research in Austin big news morning for today But first gotta welcome you back. It has been far too long. How you doing today? I'm doing well How are you doing? I'm doing great ready to try to slowly ramp myself back up again I will say that the World Cup has helped with this regard because it's forced me to watch some more soccer, which I've enjoyed So I know that that was not part of your mission because we're talking primarily Primarily good stuff like that, but you got an assist and assist across the summer from the World Cup, which should help you Yeah, for sure. Good. I'm glad to hear that. It's been awesome And I actually think the spain other ones match tonight could be one of the best matches of the tournament So it should be fun. It's actually a good time to watch to 9 p.m. Eastern. So Also, I miss I'm in central time now. So we got to talk about God's time zone here Come on. We've once I make the switch everyone else has to make the switch That's the way things work obviously, but it is a 9 9 p.m. Central if you want some thoughts in that match We did talk to Dr. Ed Fang earlier on this week get his thoughts on the Spain and Netherlands match We also talked some other stuff the futures market and things like that with team USA being eliminated Well, we're gonna add on next week again on Monday to talk more about the World Cup as we get into The final couple rounds of that tournament So check out as podcast or as show with us earlier on this week on the covering the spread podcast feed on the family YouTube page and Over on fan dual TV plus now Austin the big news this morning again was the Harry Kane transfer and I don't believe this is official yet You can correct me on that If you want I don't actually know the status of it because again I am a noob when it comes to all this stuff So first of all, what are the details behind this and what does it mean as far as betting EPL with Harry Kane likely on the move? so I think you're right in saying that's not official yet, but This has been the rumored move all summer and it really seems like there's so much smoke now that it's gonna happen Kane's contract is up after this season and he's made it pretty clearly wants to leave So Tottenham. This is their last chance to get anything for him but Without them they're they're in a lot of trouble. I think not like relegation trouble or anything, but I Could be wrong, but I think they're gonna have a fight just to finish in the top half of the league. I think they've They've been super reliant on Kane and he's gonna be gone and so they're gonna have the rug pulled out from under him a little bit, but Yeah, it's it's just big news. It's huge news He's one of the best strikers in the world and he's leaving and giving up a chance to win Or to finish as the all-time leading scorer in the Premier League, which I thought he wouldn't want to do But at the end of the day, I think he just wants to win and he's probably gonna win a lot at Bayern It's very helpful to have you all today because our parent company Patty Power one of the other Flutter companies they have a great Twitter account I want to understand their tweets because they always seem very funny when I understand them And so if I can have you translate their tweets for me for the ones that I don't understand I will feel better about myself. So thank you for explaining this so I can actually like Understand and respect how good their social media is Okay, it's like they know Harry Kane in the EPL for this year But we do sell the futures market and the golden boot market is down because Harry Kane likely being transferred So that one we can't talk about there are plenty of other futures to dive into you before Match week one final time to talk futures before we actually see these players on the pitch So Austin any futures you want to lock in before we get the matches underway on Friday? Yeah, I'm super interested in the Outright winter market that you have up there right now cities minus 140 city was really good to us last year when we jumped on them I think the first time I came on your show I'm actually gonna go against city this year, but with that said They're the best team Which is pretty obvious based on the the market there, but I think they're a little bit overvalued So I'm interested in both Arsenal and Liverpool, but mostly Arsenal This sounds weird to say because City won the treble last year Which is the Premier League the FA Cup and the Champions League? but and they also had early Collins set a record for goals in the season in this first season in the Premier League, but City actually were worse in attack last year than they were in the year prior in 2021 22 They scored 10 point 10.0 fewer XG by FB refs expected goals model last season and on top of that they lost Excuse me. Okay. Gunn again and read more as This offseason and haven't really replaced them as of now Gunn again was arguably their most important player last year especially down the stretch There's also a chance that Bernardo Silva leaves Which I don't know if that's gonna happen soccer rumors are really crazy But it's too straight summers that he's been rumored to leave believe him for Barcelona So I think he probably stays but if he left that'd be a third really key player that Would be departing so all in all I think City took it step back and attack last season I think they have gotten worse in attack this season So they might be a little more vulnerable this year than they've been in a while an Arsenal meanwhile Total 180 they gave City a run last year and appear on paper to have really improved They signed Declan Rice, Yuri and Timber and Kai Havertz They had the youngest average starting 11 in the league last year. So they're definitely a team that's on the rise and You might have some hesitation in backing them because of the way the season ended last year mean really Not to just to cut straight to it They kind of just sort of fell apart when the going got tough the second half of the season there especially down the stretch that may give you some pause and back in them, but They were actually in this same position 12 months ago before last year in 2021-22 they ended the year really poorly Disappointing finish and missed out on the top four So heading into last season it seemed like man How are they going to recover from that and they've really recovered well and nearly won the league and Overall had a really good season. So this team has shown resilience and I really like them at that plus 500 number and think That's going to shorten throughout the year Yeah, sometimes for a young team it can just take a while to learn how to win especially over a sustained period and the EPL season is so long it makes sense that it would take a while for them to Kind of figure out how to have the longevity required to take down the championship Man City currently minus 140 As you mentioned Arsenal is five to one Liverpool plus 650 What's the deciding point for you in going with Arsenal over Liverpool? Given you think both them may be enticing if Man City were valued Well, that's a good question. I think you can justify Putting some money down on both Arsenal and Liverpool at their numbers and hoping that City take a step back and one of those to win, but Liverpool is going to be amazing going forward I'm not sure about the rest of the team, especially in midfield But I think you can make an argument that if Liverpool's midfield ends up being better than what people are expecting that That plus 650 numbers really good number, but overall I just think Arsenal Is quite a bit better than Liverpool and is ready to take that next step and really win the league Okay, so Arsenal five to one Austin's here in future over at Fandall Sportsbook as of right now Let's talk about these matches ten matches this week from Friday through Monday So four consecutive days of matches Austin looking at these matches. What bets stand out to you right now over at Fandall Sportsbook? So my favorite match of this first week is our estimate at Newcastle I think both teams are super intriguing Newcastle broke through last year got in the top four So they'll be in the Champions League this year had a fantastic season They was basically trying to do that this year I think they've had a good summer they finished last year really well And I think Unai Emery their managers is a really a top manager But I think Newcastle are really really good, especially at home And I like them at their moneyline price of minus 140 By FB refs expected goals model Newcastle were actually the second best team in the league last year on expected goal differential At home they led the league and XG scored and amassed 43.3 XG and 19 matches and they also conceded the second fewest home XG just 15.6 So they were just really really good at St. James Park and really good overall Of course, this is a new season But I think there's every reason to think that St. James Park is going to be just a fortress once more For those who maybe aren't super tied into the Premier League Newcastle is a massive club with a crazy fan base and they're really Just you could just tell how much the fans were enjoying last season And now that they're in the Champions League and the fans really have a reason to believe that this team could do something special I just think their home environment is going to be crazy They've also I think improved this summer Senator Tamali was a fantastic signing From AC Milan. He's a really good player that'll help solidify them in midfield and Harvey Barnes and other signing should be a nice addition in attack so All in all, I think Newcastle are just a better team and they've gotten better last year and so while I like Aston Villa overall and think they're going to have a nice season. I'm jumping at the chance to take Newcastle at minus 140 Yeah, that's in the money line market Where it's great after 90 minutes plus stoppage time Newcastle minus 140 to win that match outright that match is on saturday It is at 12 30 p.m. Eastern for you austin So that one for Newcastle and Aston Villa any other bets you like for this week over at vandal Yep, there's one more. It's also a saturday match. It's lutein town at brighton And I like brighton's first half money line lutein town have a really amazing story in 2018 They were in league two which is actually the fourth tier of the english pyramid They've climbed all the way to the top flight in that short amount of time and they're going to play their first ever premiere league match Brighton on saturday. They were actually in the old first division back in 1992, which was the last year before the premiere league But got relegated that year so they haven't actually played in the premiere league But unfortunately for lutein town this I don't think it's going to go well this year overall and I really don't think it's going to go well at brighton Brighton, it's just really really good probably the best team for me to watch in the league They had an excellent campaign campaign last year and there was some worry that They'd regressed when their manager grand potter left mid-season for chelsea, but they actually got better under Roberto D'Azerbi and they finished the season fourth in xg differential And really gave all the big side spits at various times And they had a performance at arsenal last year where they won 5-1 And what was it really crucial game for arsenal that was probably the best performance that any team had in the league last year I think there's a chance they just blow lutein town out of the water Which automakers would think that too because that's why they're minus 330 to win And I don't really want to mess with that number But pivoting to them at minus 145 and the first half money line is a much better number And I think that's where i'm going to be on saturday When you're trying to project a team that is getting promoted will perform at the next level What factors are you digging into to decide what their caliber is relative to the new level competition? So that that's a really good question and the simple answer is that it's really hard to do that Yeah Most everybody thought knotting in forest and born myth would be pretty much a lot to get relegated last year and they didn't So what what I would look at is last year lutein town They were just fifth in the second tier in xg differential So they were pretty fortunate to get uh promoted they came up through the playoff, which is The teams third through sixth have a little like final four style tournament to see who gets the last promotion spot Typically the team that the teams in first and second get automatic promotion And typically those are the better sides that finish higher over the course of the season Salutein town was probably a little bit lucky to be promoted and then they haven't made a ton of big moves Transfer wise this summer Which is something else that you could look at um Nottingham forest made like an unbelievable amount of signings. I want to say like 20 to 30 signings last season so really had like a whole new team uh from when they got promoted and Uh that could cause its own problems because you're trying to gel on the fly in a league that might be too good for you But they worked out for them last year but yeah, I think lutein town is uh Going to be in some trouble and they are the odds on favor as most likely to be relegated So Yeah, I think they might be up against it all year Okay, so the two bets austin likes most for this weekend over at vandals sports book new castle the win minus 140 and then brighton the first half money line for them minus 145 taking on lutein town That's all we have for today with austin austin want to thank you for coming on once again As I said it is a delight to have you back here on the show Enjoy the soccer this weekend enjoy the matches tonight as well in the women's world cup We'll talk to you once again here in the very near future Sounds good All right, that is austin cast check him out on twitter at austin cast You can find all of his work over at fan dual research fan dual dot com and slash research to find all that We're gonna talk some nascar you're talking the cup series and xinity series in just one second But speaking of the english premier league the link for this week's fandal research daily fantasy free role is now available At fan dual dot com slash research your evolves around saturday's main slate for the english premier league As they return to the pitch lock is at 10 a.m. Eastern on saturday Running these free rules every week through the end of nfl season to celebrate the transition To fandal research and thank all the loyal number fire users to get the link and to enter go to fandal dot com slash research Look for the story on the front page eligibility restrictions apply Let's talk now about some nascar because again, they are at the indianapolis road course for this week I have run my uh numbers for the truck series But those odds are not posted as of yet over at fandal sports We're gonna focus on just the cup series and xinity series also indy car in action this week at the indy road course I Do not know enough about indy car to bet it so we'll not talk about that here today But should be a fundraiser though on saturday as well truck series running an irp, which is a sweet little track that i love so I have my simulations set up over on fandal research Probably later today if the market is up if not, it'll be up tomorrow Hopefully before matches and qualify on the cup series side of things I think the best value for this week is in the top 10 markets specifically There are three drivers popping for me there those drivers are ty gibbs alex bowman And ryan priest and part of the reason i'm going to the top 10 markets is I can get some pretty good plus money here at a volatile race And I don't think that indy will be as volatile this year as it has been in the past Because i'm moving the restart line back which means that like When they entered turn one it basically had bumper cars The the cars would like funnel up they'd hit each other and be very stupid very dumb And it led to a lot of chaos, but they're moving the restart line back this year That was pretty effective when they did so in chicago I think that change will make it a bit less chaotic this year than it's been in years past So i've changed a bit the chaos meter on my model and I still think even if Even when the chaos being turned down, I show value in these drives So if we were to see the chaos would go up Then they'd be even better best, but I think even if I play things conservatively here I should value them. So let's run through these three guys starting with ty gibbs He is plus 195 for a top 10 over at faddle sports book And he does come with risk because he is currently the final driver in the playoffs for the nascar cup series based on points So he could prioritize stage points over finishing position for this weekend And that would hurt his finishing position because you know it may lead to a different strategy But that is typically less of a judgment now that there are no cautions at the end of each stage So it might not wind up mattering at all honestly Or at least if it does it won't be as big of an impact as it would have been in years past And gibbs has had speed on road courses so far this year He finished top 10 in two out of three races I am including the chicago street course in there despite the fact It's not actually a road course close enough. So uh two of three top tens at road courses this year gibbs had a 13th place average running position in the other one And we should expect this because he was tremendous on road courses in the XINITY series he We say in toyota pick up their performance this year with marin trucks jr Winning at uh sonoma and tyler retic winning at kota as well so A lot of factors line up pretty well to make ty gibbs pretty interesting I've got him at 36 to finish since that the top 10 his implied odds are 33.9 percent and plus 195 So I will take that. I also did take ty gibbs 50 to 1 to win earlier on this week But he's already a fan dual a bit thinner value. I would still give it some consideration But you know, I think the recommendation here is going to be top 10 It's not all process of Alex bowman I do show a valid him to win at 65 to 1 but I think the better bet here is the top 10 market at plus 250 and No points raising concerns here bowman. I think is far enough below the cutoff or he'll prioritize trying to get a win. So Don't need to worry about that with him. He is Longer odds to finish top 10 than gibbs because he's plus 250 But I actually have bowman's top 10 odds higher than gibbs. He's at 42 for me and the implied odds are 29 So the better value between the two is bowman bowman I don't think it's outrageous. He could contend for a win here. He finished third and kota this year second at kota last year as well His finishes that the non kota tracks are not as dazzling But they also aren't terrible the one exception chicago where he had an electrical issue after he spun But he was running pretty well before that spin So Not a huge concern there. I buy into what the model is saying about bowman I do think you could consider him to win maybe a higher upside market like a top five or something like that but plus 250 for a top 10 is too long for this team and this driver at what could be a Still higher chaos track than what you get at places like Sonoma and walkins glenn the final guys ryan pre see is eight to one to finish inside the top 10 for this weekend and I would shop around as always because I was able to get prisa 10 to one elsewhere earlier on this week So see if you can find 10 to one out there somewhere But he's a value for me at eight to one as well I praised 17.7 percent He finished inside the top 10 his implied odds eight to one or 11.1 percent Which is a pretty decent gap and it's a gap that I agree with priest had started to run pretty well on road courses before the end of his time with jtg dory racing And those gains for him have translated well enough at steward ha three races so far He was running well at kota before got caught up in the crash I think I had him as a top forward as a bet that weekend He was getting close to it, but then got wrecked out there and didn't finish well finished thirteenth and fifteenth in Sonoma and chicago respectively and He had a decent average right decision in both those races as well priest is in a spot where he definitely needs to A win in order to advance and he did have good speed enrichment That might not matter here because richman is a different track But I could easily see this being a spot where priest does push for a top 10 eight to one It's hard to ask for much more than that. So I do think priest Makes a lot of sense here at eight to one Fishing side of top 10 so for cup series my three bets I like most this week are tie gins plus 195 Alex bowman plus 250 ryan priest and eight to one. I also would at least consider a michael mcdowell to win I'm a bit worried he might points phrase, which is why I have I'm not recommending him a 20 eight to one but I do think he's at least in consideration for that at a 28 to one to win for this week As mentioned the extended series is also at the indianapolis road course and It's a pretty tough field because tie gibbs is in this field aj all the diggers in this field and if you want to win You gotta beat those guys So my model knows that it gives a lot of respect to digger and gibbs But it is actually showing value as a result on just one driver for this week At least one driver by more than one percentage point and that guy is john hunter dima check at 18 at 18 to one The applied odds there for dima check are 5.3 percent. I have met 6.9 percent to fit to win this race so decent little gap there and I understand why the market is pretty low on dima check because He hasn't been great on road courses, whether it be in the truck series last year or the exceedity series this year He was like fine more so than amazing and in the exceedity series specifically The finishes have not been there But he was he was running up in chicago without his range shortened Other than that he has been tenth or worse in the other four road course races in the exceedity series this year But he's run better than that. His average running position has been ninth or better in every race except for road america So it seems like issues at the end have torpedoed the day For nima check. We know he's in an amazing car He's been the dominant exceeding a series driver so far this year and current form does translate to road courses as well He's a good overall driver. So I think the finishes for nima check on road courses are pretty fluky I prefer nima check in markets where he's not contending with all the digger and gibbs And there is a group that out there that lops off those two has dima check in it at pretty decent odds You know looking at that top five markets, maybe a podium market. Those are all pretty attractive to me But with fan dual posting just outrides. I don't hate the nima check 18 to 1 I think nima check is undervalued even if I understand why his odds are longer here So John hunter dima check the one guy showing enough value on to consider betting for this weekend at the ed road course on the Accidity series side of things That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread. We'll be back once again tomorrow pitching ninja We'll swing by we'll talk about some strikeout props with him That'll be up on the covering the spread podcast feed fable tv Plus and also the faddle youtube page. Thank you once again to austin casus We can buy check him out on twitter at austin casus find his work over at faddle research I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a edit Yes, you can also follow faddle research at faddle research. We'll talk to you all once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the faddle podcast network