 Good morning and welcome to CSIS Thank you so much for coming for this fascinating book talk. We're gonna have from John's Ogby It's no secret that John's Ogby is one of the America and the world's greatest pollsters and You need to look no further than his resume to understand that Well, you know John's Ogby is of course CEO President and CEO of Zogby International, which is a worldwide research and marketing firm based in Utica, New York Now there aren't too many people who could run an operation out of Utica, New York like John's Ogby, but we he does that For the 2008 election season John teamed up with Reuters and one of the world's leading news services And he's he has a partnership with C-SPAN He's done so much this book though, which we're here to talk about today the way will be The Zogby report on the transformation of the American dream is fascinating We're selling books in the back afterwards And so I urge all of you to buy two or three because they're fantastic and they'll tell you more about You and us and all of us then you'll then you knew before you came in here For instance, there's some just incredible Passages here things that I just could never even imagine. Here's one. I'll just read it to you Quote the majority of Americans have mellowed in recent years They've modulated their desire to acquire material things adopting lifestyles that respect the environment and human rights And they take a more critical attitude towards progress interesting another part of this book which John'll discuss is This is one that I really Latched on to far from the arrogant self-centered my way or the highway image of Americans so many beyond our shores believe in These are people willing to search for ways to live more gently and collegially on the planet and finally John will get into a discussion of all the different generations First-globals some of you here are first-globals. This is the youngest generation First-globals want a foreign policy as inclusive and abrasive as they are they expect impediments to trade to be removed so they can shop anywhere and They want developing countries and their peoples protected from predatory multinational Corporations and fiscal policies that hold the world's poorest people ransom for first-globals The American century is already old over and the whole earth century has begun Fascinating John's going to talk about all that and we'll take your questions afterwards. So Keep them in mind and with that I'll introduce John's ugly. There are people here. Good We have very simple agenda. I'm going to talk about the book You're going to buy the book I'm going to sign the book the doors then will be unlocked and then you'll be able to leave Thanks so much. I I'm a big fan and participant In many activities with CSIS. I was fortunate enough To share in the awesome experience of being a commissioner on the commission on smart power with Joe Nye and Dick Armatidge and And then was here last when Colin Powell gave a riveting keynote address to the America next do I have that right America next? Group The next America, but you know where I was coming from Okay We are none of us so we we are all becoming Spear throwers in the opera called first globals that so the rest of us are just Just passers-by, you know One of the things that's been said about the book is is that it's optimistic and The positive reviews have hailed the optimism a couple of snarky reviews have said oh Zagby is just an optimist Those are fighting words. I want you to know one no one can get away with calling me an optimist But the the truth is it is an optimistic book because the polling data Was optimistic and I think you need to know that I Did not set out to write an optimistic book in fact When I started putting my thoughts together in 1998 this book was actually going to be the exact opposite It was actually going to be a story about tens of millions of Americans giving up on the American dream and What happened instead is that as the polling data came in Nothing could have been further from the truth and as the polling data emerged over the next decade The numbers in many ways wrote the story and I just had the opportunity to Put the numbers together and interpret them so let me tell you a little bit about how the book evolved and Don't be frightened. I'm going to start with 1987 and I'm not going to take you year by year. I promise you this this Move through history will not take that long But as Andrew pointed out, I I am not of from or by Washington I live in central upstate, New York We know hard times before it became vogue and so there's a hardiness in a spirit That you you get from living in Utica That the I think the rest of the nation is just catching up with And so my wife and I Decided that we wanted to know to what degree hunger existed in our hometown and so in 1987 we together designed a survey John Zogby and associate and We started with a telephone survey 40 questions to 800 people in Oneida County you take a compass point in New York State, and that's where we're at right at the center of the state and Among the key questions that we asked Do you or anyone in your household Go without eating food for 24 hours at a time on a regular basis Because of a lack of money or a lack of food The results of the telephone survey came in we had no idea what to expect 4.2% said yes, they do That was staggering enough But we also designed the survey because we knew we were going to miss people on the phone So we worked together with some university students and took three high-poverty census tracts and Did a door-to-door sample in those areas and the results came back? 21% 21% missing food for 24 hours at a time So we went back to the telephone survey. We wanted to know a bit more from the cross tabulated data And this is not 21 almost 22 years ago. We found That in the seventy-five thousand dollar plus income level 3.2% said yes and the fifty to seventy-five thousand dollar income level 3.6% said yes, and so we wondered How can that possibly be? so what we did was we went back to interview those people in a qualitative Discussion to get their stories and we did what we call in business a referential chain Do you know anybody else in this circumstance who might be willing to talk to us? We ended up with 75 follow-up? interviews on this issue and These are the stories that we heard Yeah, my wife and I make eighty thousand dollars a year, but I alone was making a hundred and twenty five thousand a year We have the same home We have the same cars We have the kids with their needs both their activities and their clothing and schooling and all that kind of stuff and I'm not going to give up this house Because if I give it up, I'm never going to get it back And I don't know what's going to happen. This is a new experience for me These were among the 14% in our local survey who said I'm working at a job that pays less Than my previous job and so what we discovered was that with all of those bills and not quite a readiness to give up the dream the one variable in Their monthly budget was food and so they were willing to make that trade-off until things sorted out Fifty to seventy five thousand dollar category typical story Was mom good news Despite the fact that the marriage broke up she got the house And she got the kids and she got all of the bills Minus two-thirds of the household income and now what she's supposed to do and the typical story is was I have my friends And I have the kids and She had to pretend until she knew what the next step was going to be and so she made that secret trade-off So four years later five years later. I was out doing Focus groups in the battleground states and I was in Cleveland Ohio is always a battleground state And there were 12 of us sitting around the conference room table in a downtown hotel We're talking about these very issues working at a job that pays less going without food and There was one fellow in the room 50s Shaking his head throughout the entire conversation and so I asked him What's wrong? And he said well first of all your surveys flawed You ask Am I working at a job that pays less than my previous job? I'm in the third now in a series of lousy jobs and last month I sold the house because It's never coming back again, and I just simply couldn't afford it and What I've had to do is give up you'll recall That in 1992 1994 those elections were about the angry white man well, I Found him. He was in Cleveland But he was in a lot of other places and by this time now 14% nationally are working at a job that pays less Than a previous job So I vowed I'm gonna ask this question every domestic survey I ever do From here on and whether it's in a local community or a state or nationwide and what I discovered is that throughout the 1990s Despite the boom what was going on on Main Street was that 14 percent 15 percent 16 percent 17 percent by the end of the decade 17 18 percent are working at a job that pays less than a previous job and So by 1998 I started conceptualizing a book. What is happening to the American dream? Can we function if people are giving up? So we started surveying on the American dream and come to find out my colleagues Sandy Hansen John White who've done a lot of work on the American dream and we have shared a lot of data And are coming out with a book on the American dream Buy it after you buy this one, but come to find out 70 plus percent. No the American dream is alive So I was wrong. Well, how can that be? What's the American dream mean to you? There is the catch Back then one third Said, oh, you know, it's the traditional American dream material acquisition You know rags to riches a home in the suburbs my own place success in my job Starting a business whatever but one third Saying no, that's not the American dream. It's achievable, but the American dream is something different It's about leading a fulfilling life About my doing something larger than myself About self-improvement about making the world better for my family making the world better For my community. It's larger than me So I began zeroing in on that and as I continued polling on that and related issues By the time I sat down and wrote the manuscript for the book 27% of Americans are working at a job that pays less than a previous job and The last round of data 42% are now identifying the American dream as secular spiritualists and 27 28% are traditional materialists and That's a sea change That's what I've devoted a lot of time trying to define So what is this secular spiritual with them? It's people In many instances Who are saying that my life is about something larger than just me It's about the decisions that I make that make my world a better place It's about improving myself, but I've readjusted my personal priorities. It's less to do With the desire to acquire. So there's actually four sources to this new American dream the first is the group I just got done talking about The 27% and growing now with the recession, but this is long before the recession The 27% of us plus who work at a job that pays less life has thrown me lemons I better make lemonade It's very understandable if you look over the last 15 years what you discover is the dissipation of the anger First of all, it was the question in the late 80s. This is a new experience This is the change over into the new economy. This is my putting together as I love the quote when when Bill Clinton was running for reelection in 1996 and he said correctly my Administration has created 10 million jobs and there was a fellow in Ohio who said I know all about it My wife and I have four of them It's so much about that, but it was also about an Elizabeth Kubler Ross experience. What happened with these people? They started out being puzzled Then angry and then they decided they had to adjust or it's decided that they had to accept an acquiesce And then finally they decided they had to readjust doesn't do any good To be angry and on the barricades if you still have to put food on the table So in a nutshell the first source of the American dream are those who are working For less that growing number of people who see the world a bit differently Than those who've been riding along Alright in many ways. This is the core of the new American consumer Who's been saying I have a shrinking dollar Give me the best that I could possibly get for that shrinking dollar. That's not a bargain basement mentality That's not sell cheap sell cheap sell cheap buy cheap These are people who are saying I'm gonna consciously trade down Occasionally I'm gonna use what I can put together to trade up and buy that nice vacation or buy that big boat But in the meantime I want the best For what you can get it for me and you see it at Walmart you see it at Costco You see it at Target you see it at the dollar stores You see it in a myriad of places you see the KFC when my kids were young We used to buy a bucket of chicken for twenty one ninety nine you get the same bucket of chicken today for seven ninety nine And I asked KFC. Where were you when I needed you? But there's there are three other sources of the new American dream There's on the other end of the economic spectrum. There are the nine to ten million Americans who've made it Earning a hundred thousand dollars a year or more I can't do better than that in the survey research when we asked for two hundred and fifty thousand or five hundred thousand a year or more There's just not a large enough subset for us to analyze, but in the highest income group nine to ten million Americans who have consciously decided to give up the race Who have concluded I have enough in fact One-third of them who say I really have too much That it doesn't really have anything to do with my concept of leading a genuine life. I Don't really need the next iteration of the iPhone. I Got one six months ago, and it did not make me a better person. So I don't need the latest I don't need the 2000-square-foot addition to my home. I can't enjoy the three thousand square feet. I already have These are people who are actually not simply buying less They're actually giving away 25 to 33 percent of their belongings because they're concluding not only that I have too much I Already have enough and this isn't what I want to be about stop the chase There's a third source of the secular spiritualism It's us The baby boomers. I call us wood stockers. I was there It was ugly And I know you were there because I remember you know I'm kidding you were you were that one. No, I'm kidding Self-centered generation that we are Constantly chasing after youth why because The high point of our lives was when we were 19 and changed the world So we're just on a daily basis trying to recover That lost youth We're the ones that made L'Oreal necessary Because I'm worth it We're the ones Who needed just for men you know don't look at the turkey neck look at the brown hair We're so in need of a second act But look at what is happening and appreciate what's happening the group just ahead of us The private generation Who did so much more in fact than we did but just didn't talk about it as much They are slowly and steadily showing us how you lead the last third of your life And what's evolving slowly and steadily is what the great historian Robert Fogel refers to as the emergence of Val work This is what I want to do with the rest of my life. I don't want to necessarily be known for my earn work I want to be known as someone who gave something larger To the world I want to learn I want to teach I want to travel I want to coach I want to mentor I want to leave a mark. I don't want in my tombstone. He worked in a cubicle for 37 years. I Want to have done something larger than me and Think about it This private generation is showing us the way but now we baby boomers Are having to come to grips with the fact that we will be the first age cohort in the history of humankind and That will have about a million of us reach the age of a hundred Which means that for many of us as We now like me are aging baby boomers and starting to contemplate I used to say started to contemplate retirement, but I've kind of adjusted that we're starting to contemplate the last third of Our lives. We're realizing. Hey, I've got maybe 25 to 35 more years of healthy living ahead of me What am I supposed to do now? Think of 78 million of us unleashed in this era of vol work. This I suggest is the next Iteration of aging this is the next generation of Of what quote reach what you we used to call retirement is all about and There's a fourth and final source of the secular spiritualism and that is the untold story of American history and our greatness We are steeped in our myth mythology. It was the Marlboro man the cowboy the frontier the rugged individual Against the adult of the settlements against the elements. I mean to say Who settled this country? When in the reality of our history it was all about sacrifice and All about the building of communities Wonderful book that you should be aware of. I'm not even sure it's still in print Wilson Kerry McWilliams the idea of fraternity in America that retells that story of American history from the point of view of Sacrificing and cooperation and those are the great moments in our history and these are the things I got to see in the 1970s two different presidents called upon us, you know put on a sweater turn down the thermostat we did I Remember Margaret Mead testifying before Congress Americans will make great sacrifices if the cause is just Leadership asks them to do it and they're convinced that everybody else is required to do it and so The bigger story in American history has been yeah But then we got into the 1980s and 90s and we started binging again and to a great degree That's true But you see in the 80s and the early 90s. I was cutting my eye teeth doing local Poland in Communities all over the country the Akron's the Springfields the Wilkes-Barris the Athens the Watertown, New York's and Typically, I'd be hired by a planning department and engineering department a town council And they would say this is 84 85 86. Hey State is mandating a Recycling program. We have a few thousand dollars to do a survey Thank God Come back and tell us just how bad it is Because we don't believe them our community will do it and I would come back and say guess what? They're ready to do it. If the cause is right If leadership tells them and if they're convinced that everybody else is going to do it and so now we recycle Because we had to and we made the sacrifice. I was involved in anti-littering campaigns You can't get America to stop littering I remember when I was a kid taking rides out into the country and seeing an Family in a station wagon out in the country rolling the window down and throwing out whole bags of household garbage That's how it used to be. I used to think that's how McDonald's advertised What a low-cost effective way to do it, you know And the reality is we stop littering fines are heavy But you go into public schools. It's one of the first things kids learn in preschool One of the first things they learn in kindergarten It's a bad thing to do. Don't do it bad for the planet kids get it Anti-smoking sacrifice Huge sacrifice. I was brought in by the city of New York. I Was going to be the one responsible for my data From my data for closing every restaurant in Manhattan You know how little we smoke Go to Europe or really anywhere else and you see how much we've sacrificed and this book tells me because the American people tell me but I also see it in the behavior as Well because there's more to this than just polling data that Americans recognize. Hey, we're the only we're not The only people on this planet anymore Slowly and steadily there's a new consciousness that's evolved and so that's the changing American dream So I talk a bit about the different generations I mentioned the private generation and I mentioned us Woodstockers so in need of a second act and Andrew mentioned his fellow Nikes What everybody called Generation X just do it I Called them why because they were the first group of people Fortunate enough to be born into a world where everything came apart This is the generation that was born into a world of Watergate born into a world of the United States losing a war Born into a world of not only energy shortages, but commodity shortages as well born into a war where we were talking about nuclear freezes because the atomic Nuclear energy was starting to proliferate born into a world regardless of your position on the issue of Roe v. Wade And I say regardless of your position no matter what you are pro-choice or pro-life or somewhere in between This is the first generation of kids born into a world over here in conversations You know He wasn't play now. I'm not a psychologist But I think that has an impact on kids and so this is a group that's had to be resourceful is Very libertarian in the purest sense of the world because there are no institutions to trust They were all coming apart and this is a group that has learned to just go out and rebuild it and Then the group that I'm highest on America's first global citizens 18 to now 30 31 years of age and growing 56% of our 18 to 30 year olds have passports They have traveled abroad when you add up The percentages of those who say they've been abroad at least once over the last five years Their number is far superseded than not nikes The wood stockers who are paying just a footnote though and the private generation, but they're they're doing it But listen to the impact This group is as likely to say I'm a citizen of the planet Earth as They are to say I'm a citizen of the United States One out of four of our 18 to 29 year olds Expect not hope or not wish they expect to live and work in a foreign capital at some point in Their lives and many of them have that head start already This is a group that is Multicultural when we ask them open-ended and this is two years ago What will America look like? 15 to 20 years from now the number one offered response was Barack Obama This is a group that is so facile With the internet with global communications with social networking when we ask them who are your friends? They don't say like previous age cohorts. My friends are the person I meet in the coffee shop the person I People I socialize with on the weekends. I have a friend in Thailand. I Have a friend in Europe They are network so that their network of friends is so much larger. There's a planetary sensibility that exists With our young people that never existed before now I hear from people I We just launched a blog But I've heard from people well What about the greatest generation the greatest generation went over to fight and come back home? Vietnam generation Those kids flew out to Da Nang and they flew right back and many of them didn't even know where they were on the map Before we get heady about our first globals They are not necessarily the smartest generation. I'm not saying that I Always tell groups and it's true Many of them cannot find Darfur on the map But what makes them so different from the other age cohorts? They know that there is a Darfur on the map and that's light years ahead Very high on this group. I just want to share with you just a little bit of extra data here Not surprisingly a group so ready to embrace Multiculturalism and so willing to share even intimate details of their lives with a global community is Multilateralist in its worldview The Kyoto Accords the International Criminal Court an activist role for the United Nations These aren't necessarily settled questions for any age cohort But first globals have staked out a position on all of them sharply at odds with the generation just ahead of them The extra border perspective of young adults is equally evident when we move the borders much closer to home by a vast Spread over 90% of first globals as opposed to no more than two-thirds of any other age cohort are considerably more likely than those To see Mexicans as hard-working by almost identical numbers They believe that Mexicans are discriminated against in the United States three and five young adults think we should make our relationship with Mexico a high priority First globals want to foreign policy as inclusive and Embracing as they are They expect impediments to be to trade to be removed so they can shop anywhere and they want developing countries and their peoples Protected from predatory multinational corporations and fiscal policies that hold the world's poorest people ransom for first globals The American century is already over and the whole earth century has begun now Finally lest it seem like I'm portraying a new generation of liberals The truth really is That this is an eclectic generation when it comes to ideology and politics they are libertarian in Many ways not particularly trustful of Government but more important than that when we pose issues like abortion to them a Majority say that they're pro-choice But overwhelmingly what a majority tell us is is Give me the situation and then I'll tell you what my response is and I think that that's very Sophisticated and what it reveals I think is in many ways what one of the messages was from this last election What did America elect in addition to going multicultural and global? And I think that's the answer incidentally to who Barack Obama is he's not a boomer and He's not a Nike. I think he's our first first global president But I think what kids wanted. Sorry for saying that but their kids There's some day that you will appreciate my calling you kids What they wanted is what drove this election was that it wasn't an ideological victory at all Americans wanted a problem-solver and a consensus builder that In and of itself was change For them for us So those are just a few of the highlights of the way we'll be Hope you liked it and I'm happy to answer whatever questions you have. Thank you Jim I'm gonna My gym too, especially when he writes stuff that this favorable. I get I get his hate me There's of course a Jim's ugly who is related to the John's ugly. We're here in front John I want to take this time to really thank you for coming here and Telling us, you know about some of your findings in this book it as a moderator I want to use my prerogative to ask you the first question What was the the the the most Important thing that you learned while doing this book Resilience Not only for me to work with an editor but really that The table has been set for hard times now look I don't want to be You know one critical reviewer said Zogby says it's okay to lose your job. No it isn't But you are you know, that's bad. It's very bad. However We human beings we Americans are not one-dimensional people, you know when bad times hit we don't jump off of buildings We don't hole up sure there is pathological behavior and you can mark the increase in that behavior But the huge majority of us just don't make news And one of the things I cite in the book was opening up a USA today actually now it's a year and a half ago and The green section on finance The headline record numbers of Americans in record amounts of debt credit card debt So I read the article and the article said 13 percent of Americans now have credit card debt Of $25,000 or more and that certainly is not a good thing except when you parse the numbers you discover some people can afford that and What about the 87 to 93 percent of us who are not in record credit card debt Who are doing what we're supposed to be doing but who don't make The above-the-fold front page headline of the green section in USA today and the bottom line is we're not a story But we are resilient and they told us that they're resilient they they're willing to trade down They're willing to readjust They're saying you know don't sell me L. McPherson is what women tell us. I don't look like L. McPherson This is why a company like dove goes out there and makes A zillion dollars with its real woman campaign together with the workshops that it does with Girl Scouts and college students I Guess what I also learned, you know two years ago. I Was just with a colleague good friend of mine a longtime market research researcher named Joe plumber Yesterday and we were agreeing because we both do not Joe the plumber Joseph plumber Um He that one is not a friend or a colleague whatever happened to that guy nothing And deservedly so but we were saying we never heard the term sustainability Two years ago. It is the top of the agenda of every trade association. I go and talk to Sustainability so and it's the public the public that is driving all of this I will take your questions and if you could identify yourself. We have some microphones floating around the back Right right in front Thank you. I'm sorry. I'm a journalist. You just mentioned All that was on the record I'm from Russian news agency. I would like to ask you about the values of the net of the new generation you mentioned and remind that Concerns mr. Huntington express several years ago in his one well latest book and What do you think about well the combination of these features? new features like libertarians etc and What he called? Classical traditional American values and you mentioned they they travel abroad they are opened and How do you think this so-called traditional American values? Mr. Hunter to mention will be working and next well future years all of that. Okay. Yeah, I'm up to it For starters Samuel Huntington was wrong if you were referring to the that this country is Repudiating its American this by repudiating its Anglo-Saxon roots the fact of the matter is That this is this is a nation that was settled by immigrants and its immigrants that regenerate the American spirit and In this world there are economic employees serious economic implications To immigration took to I'm not going to say open borders, but to openness in borders We need Levels of work at every level that American workers are not able to supply. I'm being Simplistic here by the same token you have companies like IBM that are redefining what the global Corporation is all about Being able to have people at a moment's notice pick up and leave and settle into into new areas We need Americans to be going out. We need Non-Americans to be coming here into into the United States there has to be a flexibility In addition to that I might add that this is a group when one of the startling numbers is that 33% the one in four of our first globals who who say I Expect I just expect To live and work in a foreign capital at some point in my life just and I expect that number to grow Frankly look out when when your kids are 18 and I start polling them, okay? There's no keeping them down but the How am I doing so far? There were a lot of questions there. Is there anything I've missed well the traditional American values are really universal values, you know of individual liberty and freedom and freedom of the press and and and so on In many ways we were just Just discussing this earlier with the the the capability of young people to be going out and and networking and working and visiting with their age cohorts all Over the rest of the world In it on one hand, there's the planetary sensibility on the other hand. I think it will make them better Americans as well Not in a sense of traditional patriotism, but in the sense of really appreciating those values that we've identified As as American values those notions of of individual liberties and and and freedoms Okay In the middle right here. There we go. Oh and Sanderson CSIS Curious about how the makeup of this new first global citizen changes between Cities hubs of culture and and travel and then the rural parts of our country how that shifts boy That's that's the fascinating part of it I'm not going to be able to cite the specific numbers off the top of my head, but rich kids have always had the opportunity to travel and Highly educated kids that have as well. What's happening here is a leveling experience And so you're seeing the growth of these planetary sensibilities in Nebraska and Montana I have to tell you just anecdotally. I spoke last October at Weber State University in Ogden, Utah and the as soon as I got to campus the One of the the escorts said to me would you like to meet the president of the Muslim Student Association? I Said sure there's a thousand members of the Muslim Student Association in Ogden, Utah Go figure that out, you know, but the bottom line is that at Weber State a lot of the students are Latter-day Saints, you know, not all of them not most of them But a lot of them are but by the same token. I saw the same Sensibility in those students as I saw In Ivy League schools as well. Obviously, it's going to be greater in a big city market It's going to be greater in an Ivy League school, but it's penetrating another anecdote I love to tell and just told told you and Liz in the green room is that my wife and I Went to the dry cleaner that we visit and This is right before July 4th. This is after I wrote the book and the The dry cleaner closes For a week around July 4th every year So we were the last customers before they were going to shut the door and young lady behind the counter 18-19 years old Hispanic working for minimum wage and was not going to get a paycheck that next week Because they were shut down. So she said you're the last customer. I'm out of here and I said Oh, we going somewhere. She said, yeah, I'm going to Trinidad. I Said do you mind if I ask you a question? How? She said well, I got a hundred and ninety-nine dollar round-trip ticket Backpack and a couch surf And so I'm gonna be gone for the week It's a great. So just last month. I decided to follow up now. This was way back. I followed up and I said Anybody know what happened to the young Hispanic girl. He's oh, yeah, she went to Trinidad and she never came back So she may have gone come back to the US, but she didn't come back to the dry cleaner There is something and whatever it is She's not that same kid who was behind the counter as she was before she left Over here in the front that is a friend and colleague. Hi Thank you. Good to see you John. Hi. I'm honey from duckly. I have this question about the shift to secular spiritualism as you call it and I wonder to what extent is that consistent with actual behavior of Americans as we've seen the large the last Housing crisis showed Americans spending way beyond their means and committing to do that Is it a gap between what they say and what they do or is the real shift? I'm glad you asked that question because It's some Americans who It's not most or many Americans but it is some who spent way beyond their means and I have a different take on that and I have that take Going back 30 plus years ago when my wife and I I was the the kids were little I Was working as a community college Instructor and we started to look into buying a house and when we sat down with a mortgage consultant Now this is a long time ago mortgage consultant said oh you can afford a house That's more than three times your income and in fact I could work out a deal with the bank Where I can get you a house for whatever the price was way back then and I thought well He's got to know more than I know and if he says I can get a better house than I think on it I can afford I had the good judgment because My mother was alive back then she was about this big and she used to whoop me whenever I did anything wrong, but I went he for the laugh, but the truth is I really wasn't kidding my mother was this big and she did used to what me Even in my 30s, but the fact of the matter is I had the common sense to say no But some people don't have the common sense to say no, so I don't entirely fall the inherent greed of the American people was their greed absolutely on the part of consumers was their greed on the part of Predatory banking institutions absolutely absolutely absolutely and they took advantage of situations that they knew more about Then than the public did now with that said a Lesson has been learned Out there I'm not so sure that the lesson has quite been learned in here where there should have been some regulation of that Predatory behavior and there really wasn't great right over here. I'm Frank DeGenerino National Academy of Public Administration Love to talk. Thank you interested in your thoughts on implications for governing especially sort of advice for this administration Yeah, oh shoot. I have to go You are a nasty person The public voted for problem-solving and consensus building and I think the ball has been dropped It I think to a degree The president dropped the ball because he did talk about bipartisanship and it was catching on could have He started to change the discussion and the debate and lead Americans down that road and I think what he did was he abrogated a duty when it came to the stimulus package By reverting back to an institution that's that really clearly is dysfunctional the Congress is is Is built upon partisanship and hyper partisanship? That's not where the American people are at I think there are second chances. He's got a state of the Union message He's got to go back to bipartisanship. I don't think that he has to say I screwed up I think he already said that once, you know in regards to the cabinet But I do think he has to go before the American people and say look You elected us to get the job done. This was not a liberal mandate. It most Assuredly was not a conservative mandate. There has been and There still is there there has not been I should say and there still is not a Consensus anywhere near a consensus on what the best approach is to this crisis but What I do know is that he's the only person in this country at 60 percent and He's going he still has that political capital and I think to some degree He has to start over because if this degenerates into hyper partisanship Then really everybody loses and most especially Congress. Let let me be honest Congress is on trial right now You know, I had you know, I had Congress in the single digits Three weeks ago. Well actually more than that before the inauguration. I had Congress at a 4% approval rating and You know not one person in This town stood up and said Zogby is wrong and believe me. They're not shy about saying Zogby is wrong Nobody stood up and said no, it's at 12 Good God, OJ, and I know this I used to poll for the New York Post OJ was at 16 in 1995 What's my advice? He's got to get back on track With the bipartisanship because Americans want problems solved and he's got to get back to the Franklin Roosevelt Model and I think he's He is a very unique person who has that that capacity to do it. It's a question right here in the middle Thanks for the plug in the book. Oh sure. That's Sanderson Do you see some race and gender differences in these ideas about optimism in the dream? Within or cross-generation? I certainly do needless to say there are income differences and there is a relationship between Race and lower income and Hesitate to use the word pessimism but lack of optimism anyway There there are as you know from my data a small group of Americans that I've called a dreamless dead Who believe in any way shape or form the American dream is is dead and there is Correlation between that feeling and African-Americans Hispanics and low-income moms single moms in particular True got time for two more. We're gonna go right in the front of Candice first. Okay. How about one two three three I'm Candice Westling with CSIS Will you please talk briefly quickly a little bit about your process for interpreting the data and About where you see race relations going? Including if you can sort of interpersonal between Whites and so-called blacks Okay, great in terms of interpreting the data. I'm not a statistician I'm a historian by training and and so what what I've tried to do certainly over the last 15 years is Is engage in big think you know like what? All right, there's all of these numbers What on earth there are are they telling me and And so the the process is not to Focus on one bite of data here or one bite of data there Although sometimes they jump up at you and slap you in the face But to kind of take a panoramic View and get the bigger picture. That's why I honestly in fact John You and I have known each other for years and I remember I don't know if you recall but I do telling you I'm gonna write a very pessimistic book About the American dream and it didn't happen It just didn't happen that way. I did let the numbers Do the talking? And I felt kind of fortunate on one hand. I wasn't sure that people were ready For this and and some aren't and a lot of those some are in New York and in Washington unfortunately But on the other hand I just I Saw where There is a story that numbers can tell and How Refreshing for me it was to actually sit down and write a very positive story There are many books out there that describe what's wrong There are too many books out there that are saying here's what's wrong and here's how you can make a million dollars This book is just kind of laying out that big story race We're not in a post racial world But we're certainly heading in a different direction and I just want to tell you there are plenty of numbers to show it and you see it from the networks and The relationships that are being established by young people But I just want to tell you the honest story about the three Zogby brothers Jonathan Benjamin and Jeremy 3028 and 25 years of age who used to come home from middle school and Junior high and used to come home 15 years ago saying what is it about the black kids dad? They keep among themselves. They cause all the trouble We're afraid to go to detention and they spent quite a bit of time in in detention but we're afraid to go into detention because we're afraid of getting beaten up and Kathy and I had a real difficulty dealing with this because this was so counter to our experience and then There was this slow and steady Revolution that took place that I credit MTV. I credit hip-hop. I credit Tommy Hilfiger and Benetton This was an investment on the part of John and Kathy Zogby funding all of these But it was a worthy investment because the black kids started coming home and they started going to the black kids houses and those Relations I saw that develop So that when the numbers started coming in and I started seeing these attitudes among young people I became very encouraged because I saw the the the evolution now again Is that a daily story in the newspaper? No, it's a big picture panoramic three-part series in the New York Times You know where the Atlantic but it is slow and steady change that's taken place and Liz is back there nodding her head who deals with Young people by the hundreds here, and I think can vouch for the fact that it is very very different Hi wonderfully stimulating talk. Thank you very much Mindy riser I wear many hats but the question to you is the issue of privacy and the Generational divides there one almost has this feeling of younger folks almost being in this world beehive We are things are shared everything hangs out and there were issues there Privacy is a very individual thing. There were very different cultural styles there. There are issues of Data that that should not be shared and things that can come back to haunt people So I wonder if you talk about some generational issues letting it all hang out boy There is a redefinition of privacy and I tell a story in my book that the the Washington Post reviewer Particularly liked it is it is a true story Kathy and I were out to dinner with friends About a year and a half ago year and a half ago and we were talking about privacy about these very issues and different notions of it and the waitress came by and She started talking because that's one another aspect of first-globals. There is not a sense of deference at all The first generation of kids who say mom and dad you don't understand. They're absolutely correct. We don't understand Not even gonna argue about it But she Started talking about these very things and we got into the conversation Do you recall Miss, New Jersey and Miss, Nevada? These are two one had to give up her crown because of pictures and another Donald Trump rescued I guess at the at the last minute and I I said how about you What do you think of that? Well, she volunteered too much information. She said I just want you to know I have limits I will only take my top off But only to friends and just on Halloween. I said well, thank God. There's standards, you know this The Russian journalist is writing all this down So I said just to friends So I said well, all right today. I'm your friend But tomorrow I may not be can you stop me from sharing that with the rest of the world? She said no Well, I said doesn't that trouble you? What if you go looking for a job and these pictures are on the internet and so help me God She said Look, so many of us do this There won't be anybody left to hire So gray hair to gray hair deal with it I don't get it And there's one last question Hi Lynn Wilson, I'm an intern at state and I'm definitely a global citizen. I'm gonna be working in Berlin this summer Oh, nice and my question is about patriotism and how how does that affect or has 9-11 affected it? Still today, and how does that play in with the global with my generation? That is a really good question and it really comes under the column honestly. I don't know because Major events obviously can can change things And and there are two things, you know that make an age cohort one is The life cycle 20-somethings are always 20-somethings, you know and 30-somethings and 40-somethings There are there are aspects of behavior 20-somethings are Engaged to a large degree in the self and how I look and relationships and things like that there are historical events then that influence Different age cohorts that make them different and make them stand out and so I Can assure you just anecdotally because there isn't enough polling data, but anecdotally 20-somethings were 20-somethings up to December 6th, 1941 You know they were engaged in the self and how I look and who are you dating and pranks at school and so on and December 7th, 1941 they became the greatest generation What will happen with a major historical event? I don't know what I do know is that this group of 20-somethings has a Planetary sensibility that no other age group before it has ever had that kind of gives it a head start That kind of gets it to see its world a whole lot differently That kind of gets it when it comes to governance to understand look if we're talking about global problems It makes very little difference what the city council in Omaha is Doing it makes a whole lot of difference in terms. How do you deal with global warming? How do you deal with the movement of finance and a global collapse? simultaneously and So my gut sense is that sure there could be a pullback a reversion back to nationalism as there is you know in China and Russia for different reasons There could be but I still think that there is a head start towards a Global world view that we've never had before I'd like to thank John Zagby. I want to thank John Zagby who Really was so generous with his time today and to explain this fascinating book to us You know Tom Brokaw said John Zagby always knows the pulse of America. I think you can see why Thanks again, and this transcripts in a video. This will be available later at www.csis.org Thanks very much