 Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAxisTrader.com, a nightly wrap up show. Hope everybody had a good day, crazy, crazy action today, very, very aggressive, super aggressive. I think what the market right now is in a very, very delicate place. Again, if you just look at the scoreboard today, you're really not going to put a lot of pieces to the puzzle. I try, every morning, what I do is I try to get as aggressive as I possibly can to capture our window. I talk about this numerous times in the video that window from 9.30 in the morning to about 1 o'clock. I wish I would have broken my rule after 2 o'clock today because we just saw a 17 point move on Tesla. That's a whole different story. But I was okay. I was okay with the final outcome. But I think one of the biggest things when you're trading and you get that aggression out of the way, I use the afternoon to start putting together my early game plan for the next day. I start looking at macro clues. I start looking at stocks like Netflix, what they did a couple of days ago. There's a reason why I'm talking about that now. I started looking at some names that had really, really big moves. Never rally with the rest of the market, so I started looking at them now. But the most important part, I use the afternoon to really get a really good grasp of what might happen next. If you guys remember, a couple of, it was last week. It was such a long time ago. Last week, we started talking about a potential blow off top in this area. A lot of people, they didn't put a lot of stock into it because there wasn't a lot of clues. The next day, obviously, the market got absolutely shelled and the following day got destroyed. We're starting to get into a similar type of scenario going into tomorrow's session. Again, it might be a little premature, but it's starting to feel that way, starting to look at that. Again, we need to start talking about clues. What's making the market tired? Well, tired buyers will get tired. Eventually, when stocks attempt to break out, they're not going to break out because buyers are exhausted. They have been chasing these stocks up in this type of market. Even the most aggressive, formal buyers will get tired. It's just the reality. I started looking at clues midday and then I started looking at clues after the close. I kept on seeing the same thing over and over again. Let's talk about the technical aspects first and we'll cover the pivots in a second here. If you guys remember, right around here, this is the 12th of April. We got stuck right on this linear regression line and then the next day, we failed to take out the high and we really got destroyed followed by the next day. Two days really aggressive moves down. Now, we're looking at the same thing. You have these big, big bars to the upper area of supply. Same thing, big, big bars, upper area of supply. If you notice here, you have two days in a row of the action pretty much getting rejected within the same area. The high from yesterday was 231.76 on the Qs. Today's high was 232.13. Again, we don't want to split hairs. You're talking about ETFs and you're talking about major macro thesis. You're not talking about a normal stock, like a $3 stock. Well, $3.10 is a breakout. Well, stop the 309s. It's more of a general area. If you look at the general area here and you look at the general area here, you're starting to see a lot of similarities, right? Big meltup, right? Five-day meltup, rejection, turnaround. Big five-day meltdown, right? Meltup, rejection, went down. Now, the key to, again, any single move from price action confirmation, we need confirmation for the next day, okay? So if you look at the five-day moving average, which was from last week, the next day confirmed, we got destroyed. Now, we're right on the fight. We're a tad away from the five-day moving average. Again, I don't want to split hairs, so I'm going to give the bears the benefit of the doubt. So if we could confirm the five-day moving average for tomorrow, I think we'll have not necessarily a similar move, a destruction candle, but I'll show you guys some examples today of why I think there's a really high probability that we will expect a pretty aggressive, I don't want to say use the word aggressive. Let's just use the word back test and let the market surprises what happens later. Now, again, remember, this is just the thesis right now, okay, until the macro area confirms tomorrow this is just a trade setup, okay? We could gap up tomorrow, gap and go, and reclaim 232 on the Qs and go to all-time highs. Again, it's not about being wrong, it's about being prepared. So going into tomorrow's session, I would like to see the bears based on what I see, and again, I'll talk about that in a second. I'd like to see them confirm this five-day moving average. Again, the five-day is super aggressive. Just look what happened on the shorts yesterday, confirmation today with Netflix, and today what we saw on the downside of Tesla were their huge, huge reversal. So this is the big area, right? This is the big area for tomorrow. I definitely will be looking at a reversal for any type of weakness. I want to see the strong names. What we saw today, not participate, and that's the key, because it's not like the market was down five, 700 points and these things were getting shelved. They just weren't rallying with the rest of the market. Again, a lot of traders will turn around and say, well, Dan, you're being stupid, you're being silly. These stocks are just resting at a big run. Absolutely. You're absolutely right. But just in case they do confirm today's price action tomorrow, we want to be at least prepared for any potential rug pull. So I started looking at the leaders. And this is kind of your best way to gauge strength and weakness. So I started looking at the ones that had the biggest runs over the last two weeks. You started seeing ZM, and again, it took out the top of the channel here and it rolled over. You look, for example, like Tullo. And again, there was a really good pivot on Tullo today. Again, I don't want to use Tullo as the prime example. Again, I'm just trying to make a point of just showing you what happens after the buyers got tired after the breakout. So it actually got to the breakout level today. It went up 30 cents and sold off $3. Amazon had this really, really, really big run and just right when it was about to confirm, it rolled over. And again, do you see where it stopped? Everybody see where it stops? Right at the five-day moving average. Again, there's a theme here. There's an absolute theme here. Stocks like Facebook, right? Major, major, major run, right? Same thing. Major run, inverted hammer. Again, inverted hammer is the most basic tool to show you that a stock is weak or at least a stock is tired, but we'll be looking for confirmation tomorrow to the downside. And the biggest clue was two days ago. You guys remember Netflix, right? That's short from two days ago when it lost the five-day moving average. Netflix was the first one, okay, before Amazon, before Zoom, before any of these stocks to take out its 52-week high and then slowly but surely in the last couple of days got rejected just like we're looking at the Qs right now. Got rejected at the top of the range here, went down to the five-day, and got really, really destroyed today. And again, tomorrow, if this thing confirms tomorrow, it should go lower as well. So again, that is my initial that is my initial thesis going into tomorrow. Again, does it make a difference if I'm wrong or not, right? Who cares? Nobody cares. At least I don't care. Okay, if the market gaps and go and we get value to the upside, again, there are still areas of value that I like. For example, shop had a really beautiful breakout today. I traded shop today, great move. If it reclaims today's levels, and there's room, there's room more to the A20s. So there's definitely areas that I like, right? Even Tesla, for example, if it starts reclaiming today's action and confirms this whole area, I like that as well. But again, I think in my opinion, at least to the initial area, the value tomorrow will be to the sell side if obviously confirmed. If not, again, we switch buys very, very quickly and move on to the other side of the equation. So after hours, the big number was NVIDIA, right? NVIDIA had just an absolute monster run for 150 points from the March lows and again, close right on the five day. Again, coincidence, you make up your own mind. But the key is, how does the stock going to react after earnings? I personally think the stock probably will go lower tomorrow. It's down, you know, it's down what? 4 or 5 points after the close. That's not really a victory for the bears. I'm not talking about going down 4 or 5 points. I'm talking about if it starts confirming the bottom channel here and you can see it, right? If it starts confirming this bottom channel here, it has a lot of room down. So the idea that the stock is down after earnings, it's not a big deal macro-wise. Okay, because NVIDIA had a great quarter. They beat by 11 cents. I think they guided revenue higher. But the point is, again, there's always the question, the stock already had this 150 point run. Does it really matter how the market reacts to its earnings? So I think it's just for a trade tomorrow. But I definitely will be looking for the bottom of the range here. There's obviously an upside channel I like, right? Above here. And there's definitely a downside channel that I like down here. So we'll see which one confirms first. So that's kind of my view for tomorrow's session. Crazy day. I mean, crazy day a lot of big moves, right? A lot of big moves. Ironically my days started really bad. Like really, really bad. I keep on forgetting to stop trading Netflix prior to 10 o'clock. And the reason I say that, Netflix in the last two months or so has been trading really, really wide and really, really thin. And I shorted it yesterday. I had a really good short on this thing yesterday. Off the five day break. And I shorted it twice today. Once I got spread out, man. They spread my ass out. It was painful to watch. So I shorted I shorted the initial move, right? I shorted the initial move and it went down like a dollar in seconds. But it was so wide, didn't have a chance to breathe. And then what happens when a stock is so wide, okay? They just don't sit there and let you get out. They will spread you out. 50 cents at a time. Yada, yada, yada. The next thing I know, I just lost $3 in this thing like this. So I started the day, I started the day really crappy, right? I think that's the best way of saying it. The only good thing about starting the day off crappy, you really have the whole day. Now I had two choices. Trade emotionally. Try to trade everything inside or wait for my setups. The novice trader, the inexperienced trader is always going to put themselves in a position they're trying to come back emotionally. I look at it as a value tier system one by one by one. Again, one day at a time, one trade at a time. And what really saved me today was there was super value, right? Ridiculous value all across the board and yes, it did take me three or four trades to get it back. But boy, oh boy, when everything started snapping, things had really, really aggressive channels and this day turned out to be a pretty aggressive day. So let's talk about this, right? First and foremost, congratulations to all you guys who caught on the video. Not in the video shop overnight. That's 766 confirmation channel yesterday. Stock gapped up today. I said, hey, look, you know, this thing has a shot over 800 very, very aggressively. So congratulations to all you guys who had that overnight. But this was basically the trade that kind of started off my comeback. Boeing, you know, we talked about this for the last couple of days, the 140 the 140 to 150 the 145 call buyers all came in all came in the previous couple of days. So we knew there was money on the table and we just wanted to see it confirmed this morning. I think it was RBC that Boeing today with $164 price target and we knew how important this 137 area was 137 was the high from two days ago. It got rejected twice pre-market at 137 as well. Like I said, including must reclaim and build and Boeing does what Boeing does, right? Boeing does what Boeing does. So here was the 137 this whole area here was 137 including the 137 high and Boeing just absolutely exploded just just absolutely exploded and this is kind of started back my kind of road to recovery and again it's so easy to shut down when you especially when you get clipped very very hard in the morning a lot of new traders take it very very personally. For me, look it doesn't make a difference if it comes on my first trade of the day the second trade of the day my ninth trade of the day or my 19th trade of the week. A trade is a trade is a trade things are going to happen you're going to run into a bust-off and I caught a very very aggressive bust-off today on Netflix but again let's start off let's start off with Boeing huge move 37 that first candle went all the way to 42 and a half went as high as 44 just an absolute explosion on Boeing. NOW I still like this still almost $400 call buyers are coming in this whole week maybe maybe wakes up tomorrow shop $7.95 needs to build so again I'm trying to get it back one by one by one so I bought shop I bought it on the opening range at $7.99 and I only took about four or five points out of it wasn't wasn't a big trade but here at this point I'm just trying to you know chip away chip away chip away and shop was good I mean shop was really really good so here was shop right here here was the whole channel right here here was the $7.95 excuse me excuse me right here here was the $7.95 and it went the first move went to $805 perfectly and then you know went a little higher but again I'm just trying to chip away no home runs just trying to get on base trying to manufacture back and again that was the most important part and again this is one of those scenarios that again this is when I started getting the clues that stocks might be getting tired off the high so here was ZM 176 75 177 needs to build and again this is where the stock really should have exploded and it really didn't so 176 75 177 only went up a buck okay only went up a buck and reversed really really hard and that's when I started looking at Amazon that's when I started looking at Facebook that's when I started noticing Apple as well and again you know those that's the kind of trend that's going into tomorrow might be spilling over from war and this is where Tesla really gone crazy so I put in a pivot here on Tesla 827 to the upside 803 to the downside guess what they both confirmed right and this is what really saved my day as well 803 downside and again we were noticing Tesla just wasn't rallying for the last two three days just putting in lower highs and you know here was you know here was the daily chart I kept on and again this is the most important part folks I keep on talking about that five day that five day the shortest term sentiment so you can see here 803 was the low here it took out 803 I said it was going to get down to 796 on that first move and the reason why if you look at if you look at support I don't know if it comes off on camera but this faded line here you see this faded line here this faded line here is 796 that's the low so my lowest cover was that 497 tick open I was very very happy about it very very happy about it confirmed that 803 went down to 796 so then I said you know we're going to wait patiently wait for that 796 confirmation because if it happens I said hey there's a shot this damn thing could go all the way down to 787 but that's the whole point okay we didn't anticipate the move after it traded into the next support okay we waited okay that's the whole point we're not trying to forecast what happens next we're letting the market and we started watching Tesla got stronger and stronger and stronger and there was an area here if you go on my Twitter account right if you go on my Twitter account my regular one on the Twitter account I said this at this point of at this point of the day I go I'm just really really tired but if you look I go look for all you guys who are trading right for all you guys are trading keep an eye on I said keep an eye on Tesla if it starts building right if it starts building above 814 it could really get going if you go through my account again I can't find so much crap here yeah so here's here's here it is right here so I put this on the feed I go look I go I'm not in the trade I'm just too tired I'm already done for the day but I go look this is a big area here 814 if the bulls want to stretch it really needs to it really needs to reclaim there I go a weekly buyer just came in a weekly buyer just came in on the 820s keep an eye on that level and Tesla absolutely explodes okay absolutely explodes let me show you guys let me show you guys where that 814 level was right so here was the 814 level it was right here hold on let me show you the 814 level you see this supply zone right here 813 31 was the highest area in the supply and got rejected so 814 I said this thing is going to go to 821 get rejected but if it gets above 821 there's a shot against the 826 826 is obviously the previous day is high and then there's a shot it goes into the 830s and Tesla just absolutely exploded matter of fact we saw buyers coming in buyers coming in for the June 1000 calls over and over and over again so really big moves there really really big moves there then I caught Roku 114 downside that's been a big number there it's probably a scalp like 50 cents or so but again it is what it is again I was just trying to get back into it one by one by one and then the most amazing part is the stock that murdered me in the morning right murdered me in the morning I took it as a second entry and I don't want to say I murdered it back but at least I did something that a damn thing so Netflix caught me the first time around and I caught it the second right I caught it the second from here all the way down here so I wound up losing that first trade about $2.65 $2.70 and I wound up getting back about a dollar 8 of it so it worked out well but again it was just one of those days man it's like if I wasn't overly aggressive on a stock that I know has big white spreads it would have been really really crazy you know really really good day but again no complaints the most important thing and you know all of us were going through this in the webinar the most important thing was it was under control right it was under control was early part of the day there was no emotional revenge trading it was value after value after value and thank god right thank god there's a little stock called the best stock ever who definitely saved the day for me so guys tomorrow's Friday again it's been a tremendous aggressive channel on Fridays you know maybe we could have another one tomorrow so I am a little cell bias I want to wait for confirmation on everything but again there it we are setting up for a pretty good aggressive channel potential tomorrow guys have a great night everybody stay blessed and I'll see you all tomorrow congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading you're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire want daily trade ideas directly from Dan straight off his personal watch list unlock our free ps60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session click the link in the description to get started today