 And I wanted so much to do a good job that I pulled up my iron for the first time in about 25 years, and I actually ironed today. So this is a big deal for me. I spent 12 years in Catholic school and watched my mother iron my kilt every day, so I swore never to iron. Okay, so I am here to set some context for what you're going to be seeing for the rest of the day. And what I'm going to be showing you is some pretty simple and straightforward statistics, but they're quite powerful, and it's pretty important information. You know, it's sort of the first step when you're trying to fix a problem is to describe the problem and understand where you're at. So when we started on this project, we wanted to understand what college going rates were like in Michigan. And when we first started looking at this question, the main data that the policy community was using in this particular diagnosis was census. So the U.S. Census, every 10 years, gives information on who goes to college by state, and that's the main information we were working with. That's every 10 years, right? So that's not exactly good information if you want to be doing minute by minute or year by year steering of policy. CPS, current population surveys and other resource, but if you wanted to know which high schools are sending kids to college, how does that vary by say income? How does that vary by race? How does it vary by special ed status? You weren't going to find that in the census. You can't find that information in the census. So one of the first things we did was to take the K-12 data set, the MSDS as it's now called. So we matched that on to data from the National Student Clearinghouse, which is a nationwide data set that the colleges contribute their data to that you can then match on and then see where people have gone on to college. So we now have information for every high school, for every student in the state about where they've gone to college and how many semesters they spent there, which lets us report back to you folks. And the governor's posted this on his website. What share of kids coming out of your high schools go to college? How does that vary by subgroup? And we can generate reports for that matter about which schools they're going to. So we've got a lot more information now than we used to and what I'm going to give you here today is a glimpse of that. So what I'm going to show you is information about the progress through the education pipeline of Michigan students. So if you want to follow along in your reports, this is the one that's titled the Michigan Context, High School Attainment and College Enrollment Across the States. Alright, so what we're going to be looking at right now is getting a sense of what happens with Michigan's high school students. If you look at entering classes of freshmen and see how many of them move on to graduation, to college, that's what we're going to be looking at and how this varies by subgroup. There are many subgroups that we could cut this by. We focused on two just to keep the brief short. We're focusing on a cut by income as proxied by reduced lunch status and by race and ethnicity. And then interestingly we're going to be able to look at how these levels as well as the differences across groups vary across Michigan's districts and schools. So the data, right? It's going to be made up of the MSDS, which is the enrollment data that you guys generate and send up to the state. It's information on high school graduation. It's the National Student Clearinghouse data matched on. And anyone who's worked with data knows that administrative data in particular, it comes in dirty as we call it. So a lot of time is spent cleaning the data to make the various data sets compatible and that's what that table over there was doing. The young people who stay up all night and it's been a lot of work and we really appreciate it. So our sample here is going to be people who were first time freshmen, first time high school freshmen between the academic year 0405 to 0708. And here's a picture. So what is this picture? One is we're starting with 100% of the sample, right? 100% of students are high school freshmen in our sample. They start out in ninth grade. And then as we move along this pipeline, what we're seeing is what share of them persists to each of these educational milestones. So what we see here is that, for example, if you look at 12th grade, 80% of Michigan's freshmen make it to 12th grade. And then the next line, the next dot there is the share of them that graduate within four years. That's what we're calling on time enrollment. And that is 70% of people who start out as freshmen in the state. If we added to that the five year graduation rate, how many of them go on and graduate in five years, that goes up to 74%. It's not in the picture there, but that is the statistic. And then the final dot there is the share of high school freshmen that end up enrolling in college within a year of when their expected on time enrollment would have been. So it's five years basically after freshman year, right? And that is 46%. So 46% of Michigan's high school freshmen end up in college within a year of their expected high school graduation. You usually hear about higher college going rates than that because people are usually talking about with a denominator being high school graduates. So if you take that 46 and divide it by the 70, 70% actually graduate from high school, you get that 65% of our high school graduates are going on to college. So we've got a pretty, and that's around the national mean. So our high school graduates are getting through. But one thing I draw from this picture is that the college entry decision is not the only critical one in Michigan. Actually making it through high school is a challenge for many kids. If we could somehow magically manage to get all of our freshmen to graduate on time with the same level of preparation as the ones who currently graduate, we'd be bumping up our college entry rate from 46% to 65%. So there's two parts of the story. College is attending any institution of post-secondary education. This is from the National Student Clearinghouse data. The coverage rate is quite high in these data. So it's not just publics in Michigan, it includes nationwide all of the institutions. If there are other points of clarification, please jump in. Good question. All right. So next I am looking at how these numbers that I just showed you differ if you look separately by children who were ever eligible for a free and reduced price meal while they were in high school or never. So this is a rough proxy for poverty status as you all know. And about half of the population is in each of these groups. So half of Michigan's high school students at some point during high school are eligible for a reduced price meal. Half never are. And as you probably might have guessed, the half that were never eligible have higher rates of progression through high school and onto college. The share of the middle, the high income kids who graduate high school on time is 85% while for the others the low income kids it's 59%. Okay, so a fairly substantial gap right there at high school graduation. And then if you go on to college, the rate is 61% of high school freshmen who are from an upper income. And this is upper half, you know, the income distribution. 61% are going versus 31% of the low income kids. So a 30 percentage point gap. Yes ma'am. I'm the graduation grade. Yep. Any differentiation or does it include students who finished with a personal curriculum or were completionist compared to who they were? If they get a GED, we don't necessarily have it. Is that the sort of thing that you're... So they're not in there either. They're not in as a... What we've got here is a classic high school graduation. Because we're thinking of going on to the college margin, right? So those numbers were removed from the... Yeah. Yeah. Does that reflect personal curriculum at all? If they would show up as having a degree according to CEPI, then they're in there. So some students may have a personal... Yeah. Yeah. One thing we see here in the income gap in educational attainment is that part of it is driven by this quite large gap in their high school graduation rate. Right? So that's a fairly big gap right there. But even among those who graduate, the share of the higher income kids that go on to college is 72%. And here I'm dividing... That number's not on there, right? I'm taking the college and dividing it by the high school graduates. It's 72% for the upper income kids versus 55% for the lower income kids. So it looks like we've actually got a substantial gap. Even among those who graduate out of the high schools. This is the same graph, but now we're doing it by race ethnicity. And the two largest groups in Michigan, of course, are basically just white non-Hispanics and black non-Hispanics. So just for ease of analysis, we have grouped into two groups here, white and other, black and Hispanic. And that's because they tended to track each other. These subgroups within these categories tracked each other quite closely. And it just made it more difficult to look at it, but it would look pretty much the same. Okay? The gap here is actually not as large as the income gap. And this is something that's being found nationwide right now. That actually the income gaps in educational outcomes are larger now than the racial gaps. And that's a flip over the past 20 or 30 years. It's a big shift in the educational landscape. So what we see here are, again, differences, especially in the high school graduation rate. 76% versus 53%. And in the share ending up in college at some point, 50% versus 32%. The condition if you focus just on the high school graduates, the race gap isn't that large actually. So it's if you focus just on those who make it out of high school. It's 66% of the white other group are making it onto college and 60% of black Hispanics are making it onto college. So, you know, this gives us some interesting diagnostic information, right? So for different groups, we have different choke points in the pipeline that you might think of that you can use to think about where you should be putting your policy emphasis. All right. So questions there? All right. So now I'm going to move on to, and you're all going to squint at this maybe to find yourself. Now what I showed you before was all students and high schools and districts in the state. And now what we've done is we've limited the picture here to districts that have at least two high schools. Okay. And what we have here, the districts represented here represent 85% of students in the state because it's the largest districts, right? So this is 85% of the students in the state. The dark circles are the district's average on time high school graduation rate. And the lighter diamonds there are within those districts. What are their high schools rates? So what we can see, and it's sorted by the high school graduation rate. So the slope of that dark set of lines is the variation in the high school graduation rate across Michigan's districts. And it varies from 50% up to 90%. And interestingly, even within the districts, we've got quite a bit of variation. So the spread across each of those circles and the little dots is how much variation you've got across the high schools within a given district. And that was surprisingly large to us, the variation that you would see in these districts. This shows the income gap that we discussed before. And what we have now are the dark circles are the kids who were never eligible for the reduced price lunch. The lighter circles are those who ever were. The size of the circles indicates how many there are. Okay. So the bigger ones indicate the bigger districts and the bigger populations. And, you know, this previous picture you might have looked at this and said, well, it's just because some of these districts are poor and others are not. That's why we're seeing this enormous variation say in the high school graduation rate. The ones on the left are the poorest schools and the ones on districts and the ones on the right are the richest districts. So what we've done here is break it out by income. So let's look within the districts. Let's look at the low income kids and let's look at the upper income kids and see what's going on. And what we see here is that there's significant variation across the state in the income gap. So in some districts, there's a very small gap between the poorer kids and the other kids, just a few percentage points. And in others, it's nearing 40 percent. Okay. So digging into that and trying to understand what are the schools that have these small, very small gaps, these very small differences, what are they doing? Can we see if they're engaging in some practices that could be helpfully exported to other places? So digging into this gap and trying to understand what it's about is something that we're going to be focusing on going forward. What you do see here is that in some, even in the upper to middle income kids, we've got quite a bit of variation in the high school graduation rate. We've got a low of 60 percent and a high of 90 percent for the non-poor kids. That's a big difference, 30 percentage point spread in the high school graduation rate. And then for the lower income kids, again a pretty big spread ranging from 40 to 50 percent at the bottom up to 70 percent at the top. Okay. So big differences in the success that districts are having in taking low income kids and moving them along to high school graduation. And that bears further, I mean this is suggestive essentially. We got to dig into this and see what's going on and see if we've got some good practices we can work on. All right. This now is the college enrollment margin. Now we just have, I'm focusing just on people who've graduated high school. Okay. So we've taken out the kids who dropped out of high school and we're only looking at those who graduate. So we're looking at how well do Michigan's districts do in taking their graduates and moving them on into college. Okay. And enormous variation here. All right. So from 50 percent up to 90 percent in the enrollment rate of Michigan's high school graduates. Again to try to get into how much of this is due to differences in the composition of these districts. Some of them are poor, some of them are rich for example. We broke it out again by income. And here again we see quite a bit of differences across the state. So the lighter diamonds are now the poorer kids and the dark circles are the not poor kids. And we see some districts with 50 percent of the non-poor kids going on to college some near 100 percent. And again the differences though between those so focus on the difference between the circles and the diamonds. The big ones are where you've got a district where it's got big differences in the share of its poor versus non-poor kids. They're in the same district, they're under the same curriculum yet very different outcomes. Where they're quite close together is what I find particularly interesting. Those are places that are managing to get their high school students into college. So this particular set of decisions might be reflective of differences in counseling. You've got people who are graduating high school to what degree are they going out of college. How much do they know about the college choice? How much do they know about financial aid? Do they have difficulty filling out the FAFSA? Do they need more coaching and assistance in getting into college? The places where you see a small gap here answer no that's probably not what we need. Where we see a big gap that might suggest that the lower income kids actually do need some help with coaching. What we want to do going forward is dig into this more. So just as I broke this out by income I could break it out by performance on say the MME. And that would tell you okay let's look at how much Michigan's high schools vary in their success in taking kids who test proficient on the MME and getting them into college. Is it interesting that Kalamazoo is relatively on the left end of the Kalamazoo promising here but everybody goes to college in Kalamazoo and you never see that? No you don't. And part of that is I don't want to start a fight here between districts. Is that Kalamazoo over there? No. So that's my last slide so go ahead. Correct. So is this based upon? The statistics that I've been showing you are mostly pre-MME, pre-MMC. So the idea here is to show you the baseline. So the next presentation is going to show you what we estimate to be the impact of the MMC on these outcomes. But what we're showing right here is here we are at baseline. Okay so we've got you can think of this as though it's up to graduating classes of 11, 12. These are not old data. Okay so the first people exposed to the MMC as you said were graduating 11, 12. And this is right before that. It is now. Yeah. So previously Kalamazoo Community College was not in the NSC data which was making the attendance rate in the Kalamazoo district look quite low. But they have joined. Yeah. You're on a point on that. How well is it covered for community colleges in Michigan? Excellent. Yeah so the NSC covers publics particularly good. It's got a 92, 95% coverage rate. Where it's weakest is the proprietary school, the for-profit schools. So if you're thinking of what share these kids are going to degree granting schools as opposed to say the technical institutes that give certificates, the coverage rate is extremely high. Okay. All right. We're wide open. Microphone. Okay. If you can hear the, okay. We've got one right here. You're getting a mic. I've got a mic here too, Sue. Okay. Why don't you go ahead and start while he gets set up? Uh-huh. I just have a question of clarification. This is data from the 2004, 2005, right? Academic year? Nope. It's so here. And then I'm in terms of the. High school in 0405 to 0708, but we've got data through 2012. Okay. So the graduation information is from. Goes up to 2012. 2012. Yeah. Okay. For following students over time, what proportion of the ninth graders that you started with, do you lose track of because of moving out of state or that sort of thing? And do you think these attrition rates in the sample are correlated with things that we should know about? So one thing that we do differently here from what CEPI does. So CEPI, in line with national reporting standards for high school graduation rates, removes from the denominator folks who are listed as moving out of state or going into a private school. We don't do that because in particular we want to, when we're doing the MMC analysis, look at whether the MMC affected the likelihood that somebody went to a private school, for example. Okay. Now, in terms of when somebody disappears from the state, we don't catch their high school graduation. We would, however, catch their college enrollment because the NSC is a nationwide data set. Right. So in these pictures here, for example, we're limiting it to the graduates. So these are the people who showed up in the CEPI data as graduating and we're looking at their college enrollment and it's going to be national college enrollment. When we're looking at high school graduation, if somebody graduated in Ohio, we do not know that. I'm Julie Western and I'm from Croswell, Lexington. My question is, you said these are the bigger high schools or they have two high schools in each district. Do you have data on schools with one high school and if so, can we get that data somehow? Well, these pictures include all of the high schools. So these here, these pictures that look at the progression, everyone's in there. When we wanted to sort of show the variation by district, we couldn't fit them all in. But we have the data school by school and district by district. And in fact, it's available on the governor's website. The governor has a portal where he's got the high school and district graduation and college enrollment statistics. Glenn Nelson, a member of the school board in Ann Arbor. Part of what we're interested is, of course, how are Michigan students doing relative to students elsewhere? Not just whether they're graduating, but there are all these various national and international scores. Do you have any comments on that dimension of the baseline since my impression is we're going to move in the, looking at the MME to whether or not achievement has changed? So this brief didn't address the test scores. In terms of comparability, we can compare these statistics on graduation and college going to the nation. The ACT is embedded within the MME, of course. And with that, then we can compare performance on the ACT with a nationwide standard, which is a very useful characteristic of the MME. And that is among the things we'll be doing going forward here. Hi, I'm Naomi Norman. I work in Washington on Livingston County. And I've worked with the National Student Clearinghouse data set pretty extensively with our two counties. And one of the patterns that I've seen, and I'm curious if you have also seen it statewide, is that a lot of our students who are in the free and reduced lunch category actually show up two years post-high school in our National Student Clearinghouse data. So we really see them showing up not right away, even up to like 11% more showing up when I look at it that way. So these statistics here are based on, if you graduated in four years, did you show up in college a year later? So for the low-income students, they tend to graduate from high school later. They take five years. They take six years. We're going to hear this story as we're talking about the MMC. And then they might work for a year before they go on to college. It is known in the higher ed research community that graduating on time and enrolling immediately tends to be a predictor of success in college. So this is useful information. The gap I would predict would get a bit smaller potentially on the enrollment margin. As these cohorts, these young people turn into less young people, we will be able to look at them, how many years they spend in school, right? Whether they get a degree. So the NSC has started doing a pretty good job of gathering degree information and tracking this forward. It's not just the college entry margin we care about, but actually how many semesters they complete. We're going to be going forward starting with the year 2010. We'll be able to supplement the NSC with the star data, which is data from Michigan's public institutions, transcript data, the public colleges, and we'll be able to look at not only time spent in school, which is all NSC essentially gives you. You don't get semesters earned. The star data is going to let us look at what's earned. How do different high schools do in sending kids on to college and making sure they don't have to do developmental ed? The media education, right? So we'll be able to do that kind of analysis going forward but thanks to the contribution of Michigan's public institutions to the CEPI data set. Is there a way as related to economic development in Michigan? NSC has terrific coverage. The number of variables that you've got in there is very thin. The National Student Clearance House used to be called the National Student Loan Clearing House. Where it emerged from was actually that the loan industry wants to know when you leave college because that's when you start paying your loan. So what do you know? They created a big data set that the college has contributed to that says whether somebody's enrolled in college. But that's all they cared about essentially was whether the kids were enrolled in college. They started to add more information, but you don't have information about intentions. If they graduate, you know what their major was. They don't graduate, you don't know, so it's fairly limited. With the information we're getting from Michigan's public institutions, we will have that information. So for the quite high proportion of college students who go to public institutions, we'll be able to say something about that. But for those who go to the privates or go out of state, we won't be able to. But I think that's pretty good. I mean, 80% of college students go to publics, right? So we can say something about quite a bit of our college students going forward. Got one? Sue, my name is Chris Baldwin. I'm with the Michigan Community College Association. So I have a couple of questions related to the enrolling in college. Can you speak to just sort of percentages in terms of those numbers, those that were enrolled in Michigan versus elsewhere? And as a follow-up, within Michigan, can you speak to the students that were in two-year versus four-year institutions? One can speak. I don't have it memorized. But it kind of tracks the nationwide statistics on this. So 80% nationwide of college students are going to public institutions. And that's sort of what we see here as well. Relatively small share of Michigan's high school graduates go out of state, in part mostly because we have such excellent institutions of higher education here. I'm from Massachusetts originally, and there are a lot of kids go out of state. Many of them come to Michigan, in fact. But Michigan is less likely to send kids out of state. Hello. I'm Kathy Johnson from Kalamazoo Valley Community College. Related to the data, is there anything being studied in baseline or going forward to track by the different subgroups? How many of the graduates are actually college-ready? So meaning based on the high school data? Yes. So you have some definite, yes, there is. So that's something very useful about the ACT data, for example. So the ACT has a definition of college readiness. So we have done some calculations, and we'll be doing in future briefs showing what share of Michigan students meet that standard of preparation based on the ACT's definition. And we can make up our own definitions as well. And then we can look at outcomes in terms of what share are going on through mediation, for example. And I think the high schools will be very interested in this information so they can know what's happening to their kids once they leave their schools. Kelly Goodman from Data-Driven Detroit, nonprofit. I'm curious on figures four through seven. If you used district-level graduation data from CEPI, or if you aggregated building-level data to recreate the district information. Everything that you see here is based on student-level data. So big data sets, right? So this is 700,000 students that you're seeing from these, and we take those individuals and we aggregate them up based on the high school that they entered is how we present these data. So there is churning, people move around, but we're defining it based on the high school that they entered. All right. I will close with that. I am available for questions and chatting throughout the day. So please come and harass me, and I will try my best to answer your question now or answer it later. So the Emser website is on here, listed on here. Contact information for all of us is at the website. We want to hear from you.