 This is a do or die battle for the BJP in Uttar Pradesh and here are the top five reasons why it has to has to win the state Reason number one Uttar Pradesh is the largest state in India in terms of the number of Lok Sabha seeds It has 80 or about 15% of all Lok Sabha seeds and last time in 2019 There was a very formidable alliance against the BJP and yet it managed to win most of the seeds It along with a smaller party managed to get almost 80% of the seats in the state But if the Samajwadi party led alliance in Uttar Pradesh manages to take Uttar Pradesh in 2022 Or in alliance with smaller parties manages to form a government there that number that 62 seats that the BJP got in 2019 could go down to half And that will be a significant loss in terms of the number of seats that the BJP requires to win 2024 again But remember that in the past we've seen that in 2018 the BJP lost many states. It lost Karnataka It lost Madhya Pradesh Rajasthan Chhattisgarh and in 2019 it came back PM Modi was able to sweep these states completely and Many analysts have said that there is a disjunction Voters vote for a state government, but they might vote for someone else when it comes to the Center and that we can see again. So maybe even if the BJP loses UP in 2022 it might still sweep UP in 2024 But remember that state elections do one thing They determine to a large extent how many people will go from that state to the Rajasthava Right, and if the BJP loses in UP, then it'll affect its Rajasabhan numbers and once again That it's ability to pass bills almost unilaterally without any debate without discussion will be affected So that's the first thing that it weakens the center It makes it difficult for the BJP to win 2024 and even if it manages to win in the center becomes weaker That is the number one reason why the BJP must win UP. All right Number two is that Uttar Pradesh is a sort of lab for Modi nomads for PM Modi's political economy And what is that? That is essentially a combination of two things One is the politics of polarization and the second is giving freebies to the poorest of the poor And more often than not the poorest tend to be people from the most backward castes Adivasis and the non-dominant Dalits None of who have found decent representation in the two big parties of Uttar Pradesh Whether it's Samajwadi Party or Bahujan Samajpati And they have gravitated towards the BJP which has managed to find certain local cast alliances And also ensure that the poorest get a lot of handouts and freebies And these freebies are very different from giving jobs Uttar Pradesh's record with jobs is very poor Right? If you look at the data put out by CMI Jobs have actually dropped between the period September, December 2016 Which is before the Yogi government came to power And the latest data that we have which is September to December 2021 The number of employed people has actually dropped in UP Yet it is very possible that poor people have been given a lot of money to direct benefit transfers In fact the Yogi government has repeatedly boasted that it has set a record in DBT Never before has so much happened It has given direct money to parents to teach their children It has given money for building homes And it has been the fastest in passing on the money to farmers under PM Kisan scheme So this particular system, this formula which is on the one hand communal polarization Through which a certain segment of the majority votes comes together and stays And the consolidation of that majority vote through giving freebies to the poor No jobs with freebies and remember one thing When someone gets a job what happens? They don't actually think that the government gave them a job Even if it's a government job they think that I was good I went and took a competitive exam and I got that job They often don't blame the government also if they lose the job They tend to but they don't really directly blame the government for it They think that they weren't good enough or they blame their bosses Especially if they're in the private sector However, and you've seen those photographs of how things being given to the poor Actually have pictures of the Prime Minister and the Chief Minister being put right on those packets The point is that then at that time the beneficiaries think that the government is directly giving me Not just the government, the two people who run this government Whether it is Prime Minister Modi at the center or Yogi Adityanath at the state level They have directly made me a beneficiary of the scheme They deserve my vote So the recall value of these kind of schemes is much higher when a person goes to vote than getting them a job So the question is can the BJP continue to win through this particular formula of polarization and freebies? If it fails there's a significant lesson in this for the central BJP For PM Modi because this is the formula that has been used across India to get votes If it fails in UP then it is possibly something that the BJP leadership will have to rethink as a strategy going into 2024 Now number three Number three is that Uttar Pradesh is in some ways dominant when we talk about the Hindi belt or the Hindi speaking belt And this has most of the seats It has the majority of seats when it comes to Lok Sabha Large part of India's population of course resides here Uttar Pradesh actually leads in terms of setting the tone and discourse of public discourse Yes there are the Noida channels who create and set the public discourse But local newspapers the Hindi language newspapers which come out of Uttar Pradesh have a major role And they kind of influence what is the tone for newspapers Which are sometimes additions of these Uttar Pradesh papers in Madhya Pradesh in Rajasthan And in that entire neighboring region If the BJP loses Uttar Pradesh what happens? Some other government comes to power And governments have a great ability to actually tighten the screws on media companies and make them fall in line So an opposition government in UP will have a significant impact on media discourse in the Hindi belt And to a certain extent they can actually influence it also with the numerous front page ads That state governments have started putting out You know how print media is under terrible stress when it comes to revenues And they are heavily dependent on these front page ads which come at a premium So when state governments give those ads There is a tendency for editorial line to actually move in that direction And this would have a significant impact when it comes to the Hindi speaking and Hindi belt Number 4 and this is connected in a way Every state actually has a significant ability to give contracts to big corporates Especially in terms of infrastructure, power, tourism, roads They can give contracts to corporates and in this way they can actually open the door to corporate If an opposition party begins to rule Uttar Pradesh and has the ability to give contracts to big corporates Then there is a chance that they can actually influence those corporates in two ways One is corporate controlled media, controlled advertising And they also fund political parties which is an essential part Requirement for winning elections and that would strengthen the opposition going into 2024 And number 5, number 5 has to do with this relationship between the centre and state Today some of the big states are actually ruled by non-NDA parties Whether it is Maharashtra, you take Tamil Nadu, you take West Bengal Now the point is that if a state like Uttar Pradesh also goes to the opposition Then this can become a big alliance of opposition states Which actually stall any policy or law that the Modi government wants to push Which requires cooperation from states They can cause problems in the GST council And that would be a problem for the centre because the Modi government has a centralising vision It is in lot of ways against federalism And when large states come together, they can put a lot of pressure on the centre and weaken it And this is another reason why the BJP has to win Uttar Pradesh So these are the top 5 reasons why the BJP has to win Uttar Pradesh Not only because of Uttar Pradesh but because without Uttar Pradesh The centre will find it difficult to be stable and strong and dominating That's the show today, keep watching NewsClick Do subscribe to us, like this video and do share it as well