 I am very pleased to introduce tonight's keynote speaker. Dr. Charles S. Colgan is a professor of public policy and management in the Edmund S. Muskie School of Public Service at the University of Southern Maine and chair of the Masters in Community Planning and Development Program. He's also associate director of the USM Center for Business and Economic Research and a senior fellow at the Center for the Blue Economy in Monterey, California. He served as chair of the State of Maine Consensus Economic Forecasting Commission from 1992 through 2010. Prior to coming to USM, he served in the Maine State Planning Office under three governors. I'm sure they could use you today. He received a BA from Colby College and his PhD in economic history from the University of Maine. Charlie is always a big draw. And when we were, as a board, trying to come up with an idea as to who might be a good keynote speaker for us, Charlie came right up to the top of the list, especially given the fact that we are community financial literacy and the economic environment is very important to us. It just was a natural. He was very gracious to accept our invitation. In fact, I know tonight, I think he's driving to Bar Harbor for a presentation tomorrow. So despite his very busy schedule, he's agreed to speak to us tonight. So please join me in welcoming Dr. Colgan to our celebration. Thank you. It's really great to be here to learn about all of the wonderful things that CFL is doing. I continue to be mystified why you want an economist. Particularly one whose boat is named Dismal Scientist. What I thought I would talk about is some recent analysis that we've been doing on Maine's population to amplify on the points that Claude was making about the role of immigrants in the economy, which is, in Maine, it's changing. We haven't quite gotten out of the position of being the whitest state in the nation, but things are actually changing fairly rapidly. And it's important to understand that those changes are not only the result of the particular times that we're in, but also they are, in fact, extremely important to the long-term future of the state. And then I thought I would just talk a little bit at the end about the place of the economy today, where I think the economy is going and how that will impact CFL's programs over the next couple of years. Last year, with a number of my students, we put out a report, which is available on our website and available in a hard copy to anyone who wants one, to look at the population of Maine. And one of the things we found is the really rapid increase in the diversity of Maine's population. We've gone from 1.6% non-white in 1990 to nearly 5% in 2010. By now in 2013, the numbers, when the numbers come in for 2013 will probably be at 5%. If you look at ethnicity, the breakdown of that 5% is interesting in that we often point to the black community, the Asian community, the Native American community. What's interesting is the largest group in the non-white population in Maine is two or more races. It's a very eclectic, diverse mix of people. And I'm going to talk a little bit about the foreign born as a portion of the Maine economy. Now, another thing that we think about when we think about the increasing diversity of Maine is we tend to think about it here in Portland. We tend to think about it here in Lewiston. But in fact, every county in Maine, including Washington County and Arista County, which lost population, gained in non-white population. All of Maine is becoming more ethically diverse. For sure, the numbers down in Washington County are still relatively small. The concentration is here in Cumberland County and in Androskog and County. But the picture of Maine as being primarily diverse in its urban areas is, I think, inaccurate. Not only in terms of ethnicity, but in terms of the census characterization, we look at kind of three different groups. One is by ethnicity. One is by Hispanic, which is not an ethnic category. It's a linguistic category. And then the final is the nativity or where were you born. Like the non-white population, the Hispanic population has grown in every county with Cumberland and York County as the leaders. I think most people in Maine do not understand that the diversifying population in Maine is not simply a story about Maine, about urban Maine or about Portland and the major cities. It is a story about the whole state. And I think one of the implications of that for CFL is there's a lot of room to go in terms of people to serve. If we look at the non-US-born population, the largest group of non-native manors comes from Europe, though most of those came a long time ago. The second largest from Asia. The third largest and the fourth largest of their bout tied are from Africa and the Americas. Now, this excludes, in doing this graphic, I excluded Canada, about 28% of non-native manors are Canadians. It's by far the largest single country contributing non-native populations to Maine. Not surprising, Maine is the only state in the country that borders only one other state and Canada. So and Canada comprises more of our borders than does New Hampshire. So it's not too surprising that we get a lot of Canadians and of course up in areas like the St. John Valley in Orista County, the mix between the Maine US population and the New Brunswick Canadian population is so complex as to be almost meaningless. What's interesting here is how much of the population in Maine has come up from the, with now over a quarter, almost equal to the Canadians, between the Latin America, the rest of the Americas, and Africa, even though Asia and Europe still dominate. One of the things we looked at was the people who moved to Maine. Now, most of the people who moved to Maine from 2005 to 2010 came to Maine from somewhere else. But I'm going to show you in a minute the non-native population, whether they be Native Americans or, let me rephrase that, whether they have been born in America or elsewhere. One of the things that's been happening is that the population has been younger than Maine. They tend to be younger between 18 and 44 years old. And over half of the immigrants to Maine have come with a college or a professional degree. Now, this is actually, as I'll show you in a minute, this is actually not just the US population coming to Maine. A large portion of this is the foreign-born population as well. These are the top countries in terms of bringing people to Maine. Canada, as I said, is 12,051. The United Kingdom is the second largest. But most of the people who came from the United Kingdom came before 2000. China, Germany, Vietnam, Philippines, India, Korea. Those are the countries that make up the bulk of the Asian population coming into Maine, then Mexico, Cambodia, Russia, Sudan, Ireland, Poland, and Kenya. It's a very global picture. It is not at all the picture of just Europeans or Canadians coming here. They make up the majority of people. But there are, I think, on the census list, there are about 85 countries that have supplied new manors in the 2010 census. The people who've been here the longest, who came before 1980 or between before 2000, tend to be the Europeans and the other group. The African immigrants are not yet broken out in this census data, which is a little surprising. But I think it's because of the sample size that we're using. The most recent immigrants have tended to come from Latin America, Asia, and, of course, Africa. So if you look at this native, at this foreign-born population, almost all of the recent immigrants have come from the parts of the world, other than North America and Europe. And that is really the major source of the diversifying population. What's also interesting, Claude moved from one category in this to the other, the difference between the citizen and non-citizen. About 60% of those who came from Europe are naturalized citizens. But about 40% of those people who came from Europe are still not naturalized citizens. Same is true in Asia. Latin America has the biggest differential. But even in the other category, only a little over half are naturalized citizens. So there's a substantial portion of this foreign-born population in round numbers somewhere around 20 to 25,000 that have not yet become citizens. And again, this represents a group that is almost certainly likely to be among the people whom CSL could serve. The foreign-born population is slightly different than the US population. It tends to be slightly more female, particularly for the US citizens. And it's a little more in terms of non-US citizens. The foreign-born population is much more likely to be married, whether citizen or non-citizen. It is more likely to be a household without a vehicle, about 10.8% for foreign-born non-US citizens versus 6.7% for natives. And interestingly, the natives without vehicles, those tend to be younger households. Younger households are much less likely to have cars today than in earlier years when getting your first car was the thing. Today, younger people, they can take it or leave it. Obviously, one of the biggest issues for the foreign-born, particularly for the non-citizens, is they live in linguistically isolated households. And that means that they speak a language other than English at home. And the people who do have English proficiency have limited English proficiency. So this is actually one of the pretty critical definitions. Notice that there's still, even among the native people, there is still a small portion who are linguistically isolated. These tend to be people up in French-speaking parts of the state. Now I mentioned education. The foreign-born population, interestingly enough, is very bipolar in its education. It is more likely to have a bachelor's degree or a graduate degree than a native born a minor, but is less likely to have a high school degree. And this is because they have usually finished their secondary schooling abroad. But they are much less likely to have a high school degree only. And they are more likely to have less than a high school be less than a high school graduate. So on the one hand, they're more likely to have less education. On the other hand, some of them, as a large part of the population, have more education. I think that this is a result of a number of factors, one of which is the growth in the health care field, which has brought in a lot of people from outside of Maine and has been, I think, very much responsible for the diversification of Maine's workforce over the last several years. And the health care, this suggests to me that the health care industry is one of the areas where CFL needs to think about perhaps offering some of its services. Now, this bipolar educational relationship also shows up in the income distribution. Non-native born manors are more likely to be wealthier and poorer than the average manor. They're more likely to be wealthier because they come in with higher degrees of education. But that portion of that comes in without education makes a substantial portion of the foreign population more likely to be poorer. So again, it's a bipolar distribution, both wealthier and more educated for some and poorer and less educated for others. And this diversity in the non-native for the foreign born population, again, points to the fact that there are a lot of different stories among the people who are coming to Maine. Poverty is much more likely to be the foreign born population, particularly the non-US citizen, is substantially, almost twice as likely to be below the poverty level than the native born population. So this is the picture at the low end of the income distribution and shows how far we really do have to go in terms of integrating the non-native population into the workforce and into the income stream, hopefully, in doing so, acquiring the requisite financial skills a long way. I said that one of the things that characterizes Maine is that this is not simply an urban story. It's not simply a Portland story. If you look at the distribution of the foreign born population, yes, about 6.7% of Maine's foreign born population is in the principal city within the metro areas. That's Bangor, Lewiston, Portland. Most of the population, 3.6% is in metropolitan areas. But a substantial portion of the foreign born population is not in the principal city. It's in the suburbs. Substantial proportion is in the smaller urban areas, the Stanford, Augusta's, Waterville's, Rockland's. And a substantial portion of those are out in the suburbs of those smaller cities. Only 2.6% are out in the true rural areas outside all of the urban areas. But still, that's a substantial number of people. Now, here is one of the key factors about Maine's newest citizens. Is their age distribution. They are overwhelmingly grouped in the 25 to 44-year-old age group, particularly the non-native, non-US citizen. Relatively few under five. But they really are that. This is where the concentration is, is in the 25 to 44-year-old age group. And the reason this is so important is because this is exactly the age group that Maine has the biggest hole in its demographics. Over the last 20 years, the population in Maine, 25 to 44-year-old, has declined by 20%. It's down 20% since what it was in 1990. And what growth there has been in it has almost all come from the non-native population. In a world in which this is the 65 and older group is the red line. The blue line represents the younger working age of 20 to 34. You can see here, this is a forecast that I do several years ago. You can see that in this forecast in seven years, the number of people over 65 will substantially begin to substantially exceed the number of people 20 to 34. This is the demographic hole into which the Maine economy is falling. And there's very little we can do about it, except get in more people. And it is the fact that the immigrant population is concentrated in this younger working age group that makes them so critical and so important for the future of the Maine economy because that is exactly the portion of Maine's demographic and demography and workforce that isn't there. This is the rate of change in those age groups you can see from 2010 out to the mid-2020s. The number of people in the 20 to 34 age group will decline every year, even while the number of people rate at 65 and older will increase every year. And this is the gap that the immigrants are filling. Why is this important? The blue line represents a decline in migration of 50%. This is jobs out 50 years. Don't believe this. This is not a really forecast out 50 years. But this is what happens when you don't get people in. If migration is merely half the level of what it has been, the number of jobs in Maine declines by over 10,000 relative to what it would be otherwise. If it declines by 90%, we lose almost 20,000 jobs relative to what we could have over this period of time. And every year, the gap between what we could have and what we do have in jobs increases. That's why the demography matters because it hugely matters in terms of our ability to create jobs. We're not gonna be creating them with natural population increase. All of the population increase, we're gonna go into, of Maine's 16 counties, 14 are now in natural population decrease, means deaths exceed births. Only Cumberland and York County have births exceeding deaths. And that will only last for another five to 10 years. If we look at the number of migrants that are needed, you can see here what the computer model I use says we need for people moving in here, economic migrants are people who come here to take jobs. That's what we need to fill the gap. The retired people, we're gonna get a lot of retired people but they aren't going to work there, retired. The big growth in percent terms will be in international migrants. So it is not, this is not a temporary issue of the current world situation, the current conflicts in Africa or Asia or Latin America. This is a need that we have to be sustained well into the future.