 Hello and welcome to the Monday market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday the 3rd of September 2018 and the time has just gone 11.15 BST. European active markets are actually fairly quiet today, actually fairly mixed today. Even though there's a lot going on in the news, it's probably because the United States and the Canadian market will be out of commission today due to both countries celebrating Liberty. In relation to what's going on, it's similar issues that have been persistent for the last couple of weeks, except where things have taken a bit of a turn. The trading relationship between the US and China has taken a bit of a negative turn. What we've also seen as well is the trading relationship between Donald Trump and the EU has also taken a bit of a negative turn as well. It would see that Mr. Trump isn't going to be a forthcoming as he once was to both nations and he sort of has the attitude of do business on my terms or don't do business at all. That's playing it to fears. Obviously, there's also talk of President Trump is going to announce another round of tariffs on Chinese imports and this would potentially be innovation of $200 billion. We're talking about major amounts of money here. That's also hanging over the markets. Overnight, we had the Kaishin survey of Chinese manufacturing, which came in at most expected and actually fell to a 14-month low. Even though the figures were disappointing and highlighted a very slowing of the growth rate of Chinese manufacturing, we actually see a slight move higher in the price of high-grade copper, platinum, and palladium, which has actually managed to boost mining stocks such as Rio Tinto, BHG Billiton, and the likes. These obviously are very sizable components. We've also seen higher oil prices on the back of declining Iranian output in the events of the sanctions that the United States have lined up for the country. It's also seeing a push higher in oil prices here in London. Turning our attention now to the week ahead. The week ahead can be actually found on our website. If you're going to see CMCMarkets.com, under News and Analysis, you will find the week ahead. Selecting ahead to tomorrow, we have an interest rate decision from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the RBA are widely anticipated to keep interest rates on hold at 1.5%. The trend economy is very linked in with the Chinese economy and as you've seen, the Chinese economy is cooling and also in the middle of a trade spat with the US. We're seeing evidence that the Chinese economy is cooling. Should that continue to be the case, we could see further cooling of also the Australian economy. For the time being, we're expecting no rate changes from the RBA. It's also more pointing out, some Australian cities have a major housing bubble, notably Melbourne and Sydney. Any kind of signs of a rate hike from the RBA could actually put that into the big matters worse in relation to the housing bubble in several Australian cities. On Tuesday, we have first-half figures from WPP tomorrow. As of today, the new CEO of WPP has been announced. Tomorrow, we will expect the full-year figures from the advertising company. On Wednesday, we have full-year figures from Bar Developments, the British Home Builder. Bar Developments issued a very up-statement in July. They expect profits to rise on the Europe, but they also cautioned about the same all issues. They couldn't give the housing market skills shortages and also increased material and labour costs. On Wednesday, we have the Service PMR reports from China, many Eurozone countries, and the UK. On Thursday, we have the Bank of Canada made a decision. The Bank of Canada is tipped to hold rates at 1.5%, and on Friday, we have US non-farm payrolls. It's widely seen as the most important figure of the months to keep an eye out for that. In relation to what to expect, respecting the unemployment rate to remain at 3.9%, the estimated estimate for the August report is the increase of 187,000 jobs. Back-to-repairs with the 157,000 jobs that were created in July, bearing in mind we could see revision to that figure. While I'll keep an eye out on, rather, is the average earnings figures. Average earnings are tipped to increase by 2.8% year-on-year basis, and that would be an improvement on the 2.7%. Taking a look now at a number of the major markets, turning off the FTSE 100. So the FTSE 100 has been a bit range bound for the last number of months, but the last few weeks seem to have taken a taper off to the downside. The FTSE has been largely, Capricy could really get beyond 7,800, and we're now actually trading there, thereabouts, in around the moving average, in around 7,500. So this red line here, on Friday, the last day of August, the market actually managed to fall to a multimodal low, so that's a negative indicator in itself, but we actually have managed to pull back some of the ground. And if you look at the markets in early July, we did see a higher high beam reaching then a lower low, a lower high, and a lower low. So this could be in the beginning of a slight move to the downside for the FTSE 100. If you continue to kind of creep lower on the FTSE 100, keep an eye on this area here, 7,422, and if you go beyond that, we could really head back down towards 7,400. Moving to the upside in relation to the FTSE 100, an area that you really need to be taken out is this yellow line here. Well, they almost converge on each other. The yellow line is the one-day moving average, and the blue line is the 50 moving average. And not all of us have bought metrics, both have acted as kind of support and resistance in recent weeks and months, and if they've acted as support and resistance in recent weeks and months, it makes it all the more likely they will do so again in the future. And those two prices come into play in around the same area at 7,615. And a move beyond that could then potentially bring 7,700 to play. And if you go north of that, we could be heading up towards 7,800. Keep an eye on the FTSE 100. The German market continues to be in fairly weak shape. The DAX in the last few sessions has been driving lower. Notice how we are actually more far closer. If you compare the DAX to, say, the S&P 500 and the NASDAQ, which are not too far away from all-time highs, the DAX is nowhere near that. Even the FTSE is in better shape than the DAX. And if you look at the DAX in recent weeks, it's been under the turning moving average for several weeks now. And even in the last few sessions, it's actually managed to get a push lower yet again. Possibly likely to be driven by the fact that there's certainly in relation to the US and EU trade relationship. And obviously, keep in mind German car manufacturers are kind of very much in the fiery line, far out of Donald Trump's concern. So while that uncertainty persists, it's likely that we could see a private remain of the DAX. So take a look at the price action of the DAX. Like I said, the last few sessions, it's been pushing lower again. If you didn't get to drive on lower, we could be like heading back down towards $12,250. If you go south of that, we could be like heading back down towards this area here at $12,423. And notice that actually a decent support in the past. So therefore, a break below would actually be quite significant and could pave the way for further losses. Any moves to the upside in the DAX, we really need to be taken out, say $12,600. This level here, take out these highs here and then go north to say $12,600 before we can actually become more kind of confident in an upward move. And if you go beyond that, then keep an eye out for the charity moving average at $12,687. And then if you go beyond that, just then be looking up towards the high in July of $12,887. I mentioned the U.S. markets a moment ago. I'll take a look now at the Dow Jones. So the Dow Jones only last week had a multi-month high. It's still not as strong as the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq. But still, it's certainly better than the likes of the DAX and the FTSE. So last week, the Dow Jones started to play catch up with the S&P 500 and actually managed to hit a multi-month high. The market has cooled a little bit, but ultimately, we're in a solid upward trend. If you continue to push on higher from here, we could be looking at heading up towards this level here in around the $26,300 region. If we go beyond that, then be looking up towards $26,700. Moves to the downside, my prices forward in around $26,000 or perhaps in around $25,820. And then even if you do have a size to pull back, it might be found at $25,500. This year, we're here to see a fair bit of consolidation in the past, so therefore, I see the act as consolidation again in the future once again. Taking a look now at the S&P 500. So the S&P 500, like I said, hit a racked up threshold top last week, which really tells you everything you need to know about the sentiment. Mark's been in a classic upward trend for seven months now, so the next effort to keep an eye off for beyond this will be, you can say, what we say, $2,920, big kind of psychological numbers because they're currently trading at around $2,910. Any moves to the downside may find some support from around the $2,900 mark or perhaps even low as soon as $2,891. Or maybe even a pullback to the recent highs we created at $2,877. Taking a look now at the gold market. So the wider picture for gold is that it's been in a tower trend since April. The US dollar has been pushing higher, which has an in-brush relationship with the gold market. Crammed it, we did see a fairly decent bounce back in the price of gold, but we had seen it actually kind of creeping lower once again. And also the gold market fair enough managed to kind of break north of the psychology board and $1,200 mark, but still it has been kind of pushing lower in recent sessions. Once again, we're falling into the old trend of lower lows and lower highs. This here on the marketing indicator, the marketing Instagram, is the measure, is the positive momentum. And notice how the rate of positive momentum is actually declining. So as the market is creeping lower, that's being confirmed by the decline in positive momentum. So we could see that the price of gold drift lower. And if you manage to see the price of gold drift lower and fall in with this wider downward trend, you could be looking heading back down towards 1185, 1193, this area here. And if you go south of that, you could be looking back down towards 1175. And then below that again, you could be looking at the recent low of 1160. Any moves at the upside in gold could run into resistance at the fifth of the moving average, this blue line here, which comes to play at 1221. And notice how the fifth of the moving average acts as both support and resistance a number of months back. So it's likely that it could be doing so again in the future. Take a look now at the oil market. It's doing quite well. As I said, there's already signs of production from Iran as it declined in advance of the US imposed sanctions. So the market here, as in pushing higher, we're not too far away from the, essentially after multi-month, not too far away from multi-month highs, but we're not too far away from multi-year highs. So as you can see here, the price of the oil market, the Brent, has been pushing higher. If you continue to drive on here from here, the next year to keep an eye out for what we've just noticed with this at $80 a barrel, it's a big psychological number. And if you go beyond that, we'll be looking towards the 2018 high of 80s by 89. And if you go beyond the 80s by 89, we'll be looking at creating new multi-year highs. Notice the downside of Brent. They find some support from this yellow line here. They fit the 100-day moving average, which comes into play at 75, it's about 35. Or indeed this blue line here, which is the 50-day moving average at 74, it's about 64. But nonetheless, Brent, the oil market has been in a fairly decent shape in the last few weeks. So it's good likely that we could see this upward trend continue. Taking a look at now WTI. So WTI, not as strong as the Brent oil market, but basically for the last couple of weeks, has been pushing higher. We managed to actually move back above the 50-day moving average, and we're still actually holding above that level. So while we remain north of that 50-day moving average at 69, spot 94, it's likely that the outlook is going to remain positive for Brent crude oil. If we continue to push on higher from here, obviously the next 30-day keep on IF4 will be the high from mid-July at 71, spot 69. And if we go beyond that, we'll be looking at heading up towards 72, spot 79. And then beyond that, back up towards the 75 dollars of a barrel mark. Moving to the downside, could find some support from the 100-day moving average, which comes to play at 69, spot 06. And then even further moving to the downside, we could see support coming to play in around the 67, spot 50 area. Notice how we didn't see a bit of consolidation in that price area in recent weeks. Turn your attention now to a couple of currency pairs. So the euro-dollar still remains in its wider downward trend. The downward trend that's been in play since April. But notice how the market has actually managed this trend line here, which goes from the high in June and connecting the highs of July and also of June and July in here. If you draw this trend line down here, notice how the market actually has to break above it. It's actually not deep back below once again. And as the price is creeping lower, we're back below that trend line. If you take a look at the market histogram, we can see the policy momentum is in decline. So as the market is creeping lower, we see a decline in the policy momentum, so that that's confirming because of the downward move that we're seeing. If you could take a look at the drift lower from here, support might come into play in around the 115, spot 10 area. It was a very important level only a few months ago. So it's likely that price could be important yet again. And if you go south of one spot 1510, you could be like heading back down to the recent low of just north of one spot 13. Move to the upside on the Euro versus US dollar. The area that really needs to take out is the late June high or the mid-June high rather of one spot 1851. Move to the upside on that could then actually potentially pave the way for up towards 119, 120 even tested. Pound dollar is the last one we're not looking at. Pound dollar has also been in a downward trend. I've already saw the downward trend since April. We've had a decent enough recovery in terms of a bounce back. Some of the, well, now as you know, one's optimistic comments from Michelle Varney, it doesn't seem so optimistic anymore in relation to the potential training relationship between the UK and the European Union post Brexit. That's still obviously on the agenda and it's hanging over the British pound. Now, so when the market did manage to valley and a fairly decent pullback, it could actually get beyond the fifth of the moving average, this blue line here, which comes into play at one spot 3028. And while we remain below that metric, it's likely that the outlook for the pound is going to remain negative. The last few sessions have been negative for the pound dollar. We've seen a decline in positive momentum. So that actually confirms the downward move that we're seeing. So if we could drift lower, we could be looking any back down towards the recent low of one spot 2661. And if you go below that, you could be looking any back down towards one spot 2590 for the pound dollar. We really would need to be taking out this fifth of the moving average before we actually look to actually any kind of optimistic about the near-term outlook for the pound versus the US dollar. And even if you do move beyond that, the next area to keep on that for would be the one of the moving average at one spot 3272. It's an area of actually a fairly decent consolidation for the pound versus the US dollar. So keep on that on the future. Just before we go, if you have any comments, positive or negative about this video or any of the videos that we produce here at CMC Markets, feel free to leave a review on Google Reviews. Well, that's all for me this week. Thank you very much.