 forward and we'll get going. So before we start, as always, I'm going to take a minute to review the risk disclaimer. As you know, trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk and you can lose more capital than you have on deposit. And more importantly, with respect to today, any of the views expressed by me today are solely mine and they are not indicative of views held or expressed by Tickman. Okay, so before we get going, just a brief introduction for those who are here for the first time with respect to who I am. My name is Patrick Munley. I've been involved in the financial markets for 15 years now. I wasn't always involved in financial markets. After I graduated, I joined a consulting firm in London. I eventually left that firm and did a startup with a couple of colleagues there. And over a four to five-year period experience and pretty rapid growth and I cashed in my stake in the business and decided to explore my passion for markets. And so late 2004 or 2005, set up my first online trading account, had some chips to play with and time on my hands. So I started day trading the E-mini S&P. The market was trending north and a nice experience like many do. Some beginner's luck and started to make some solid and then quite significant gains. And you can understand why I haven't been doing it all my life. That beginner's luck, as is often the case, ran out and over a very short period of time, I gave back all the gains and then took a personal six-figure hit on my capital and then had a moment of clarity and decided to step back and really assess whether or not I could realistically make a sustainable income from the markets. And so using some of my prior skills in executive search, I hunted down a mentor and worked with this guy for 18 months to two years, not just upping my technical game but more importantly my mental game. It was a period during which I became far more self-aware and understood the holistic nature of trading. And so developed a business plan, a trading plan, extensively back-tested and forward-tested that plan. And then I came back to the markets with my cash in 2008. Obviously a very tricky year, it was a tricky start. But because of the amount of back-testing I've done and the forward-testing, I had absolute conviction in my trade plan. I knew that if I just kept taking the trades, managing my risk, then over an extended series of outcomes that my edge would demonstrate itself and it did. And so since 2008 on an annual basis I've been consistently profitable. But that doesn't mean to say that I don't go through periods of drawdown. On the screen you can see my trading results since 2013. The reason it's from 2013 is that from the period from 2008 to 2013 I'd had some really good years. And so friends and family started seeing what I was doing and they wanted to get a piece of the action. And as such I set up a managed account service in January 2013 and the results are for that managed account service that you can currently see on the screen. So again, I go through periods of drawdown and this is just something I totally accept. I'm not emotionally invested in the outcome of individual trades or even a string of trades where my concern is or my focus is over the next 100 trades because I know that if I plan my trade plan with excellence then the market will eventually come back to me. There's no single approach that will be successful in all market conditions. And I completely accept that and I'm focused on my process, not the outcomes because I know if I keep hitting the trades as per the plan then the outcomes will take care of themselves. The most important figure for me really in terms of this data is down here in terms of an average winning month at 7.96% an average losing month at 2.32%. You can extrapolate out there that on average I'm making two to three times what I lose. So it's really about keeping the risk tight and letting that when you catch these winning moves and runs in the market is letting them run and making those X multiples of gains. So that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Alongside my trading and account management service I have a couple of other projects. Obviously I'm a market expert in residence at Tick Mill. I provide a daily market outlook giving my take on the market and the technical setups. And then I also provide a trade of the day which gives additional opportunities and we've increased that now with something called a Tick Mill chart hit where I do a short video each morning outlining a setup that I'm watching for the day ahead. And then my final passion project really is FX Career Swap. It's a firm that I joined over a year ago now with the idea of supporting and developing retail trading talent through a process of education and development using some bespoke education and teaching a bunch of the strategies that I've used over these past 12 years to be consistently profitable. And then we underpin all of that with a funded account. So once you've completed the process you can then use the funded account to ultimately grow a business. And you know we call it FX Career Swap. It's not FX Lottery Ticket. This isn't something that's going to happen over the next three, six, nine months, 12 months even. You know it's a process where you build your business and you know I consistently said you need to be thinking in terms of years not in terms of months for doing that. But the opportunity is there to grow a significant business through our program. We offer a two-week trial for anyone who's interested. I'll put a link in the chat at the end for you to take a look at that. So that basically covers me. Now let's jump into where we're up to with respect to the markets. So I've covered this last week. I just want to revisit it again. This is the seasonal trends for markets as for the 20-year averages. And we note or I highlighted last week that August has historically been a tricky month for risk assets. You can see that most of the equity markets tend to struggle during August and this correlates to risk FX with the New Zealand dollar and the Australian dollar obviously having fairly weak months. The Japanese yen having a stronger month obviously being a safe haven asset. So I'm cognizant as we're into August now looking at the potential for opportunities to see weakness in risk assets. And obviously I'm not trading these seasonal patterns as a standalone approach. What I'm looking at is using them as an additional confirmation as and when I get signals in these pairs. So that's the seasonal pattern that I keep a track of. First chart I want to show you today. These are some charts that City Quantum FX have put out. This is gold. Obviously gold is catching all the headlines at the moment and it's been on the tear. These guys think that there's a target up here at 2,393 actually, which is the trend line going back from the 1980s. It would be a third touch and for those who I work with, they're aware that I've had a lot of attention to these third touch trend lines. They tend to be respected and so obviously the current move is parabolic really at this stage. But certainly want to watch when we get up into this 2,393 area as to see if that third touch trend line will be respected. Another caveat at the moment with gold is that it's currently trading 24% above its 200 day moving average. The last time it's squeezed this much was in 2011 in this period here and obviously we saw a significant pullback. I'm not saying that that's necessarily what we're going to see now, but certainly in and around current levels. I'll cover the gold chart when we move into the actual charts. I've been looking at 21 46 as an interim upside objective that whereby we could see a pullback and I'll cover that in more detail in a little while when we open the gold chart. One other sentiment or flow piece of information to consider is that the gold ETFs has seen its second biggest inflow on record. So this means retail money is flooding into gold at the moment and historically when we see these big inflows, that tends to be a period where the market will correct. Next chart here is dollar index. Again, looking at some symmetry patterns in terms of in terms of the dollar index chart for those who follow me or on my trading team, I know that I'm bearish the dollar, but I see the potential at the moment at least for a corrective play before looking at the next leg of downside. But if we look at these prior price patterns here, the city have highlighted that double top. We could get a target move now down to 82, 98 or 83 in gold if we replicate this prior price pattern and the setup is pretty similar at the moment with the close below the 55 month MA, breaking the rising trend line and heading down for new lows. So I remain bearish the dollar, but in the interim I see the potential for at least a correction before we get this next major leg of downside. And then that obviously feeds into the euro. For those who've been following my chart of the day, etc., I'm looking for the euro to correct from current, excuse me, sorry about that. I'm looking for the euro to correct from current prices similar to what city are looking at here. I've got a similar pattern. We'll talk about that in a minute when I open the charts. The other one pair here is the dollar yen. Again, I've been flagging that. I'm looking for an entry into the dollar yen on the long side now as we're testing this key 104.50 area. It's been pretty pivotal over the years. And the last bit of flow, a couple of bits of flow data here. This is from credit agricoles research team. The euro here as per their positioning data is reaching extremes in terms of overvalue. So that stretch in terms of positioning and sentiments should see at least a corrected pullback in terms of a reversion to the mean type trade. And finally from JP Morgan here, they note that net USD positioning is at two standard deviations away from the mean. And so when they back test that, looking at forward USD performance, similar starting points USD has a tendency to move higher. So this would support that idea of a corrective phase. And you can see they quote the last times when this occurred and then the returns over the following one month. I'd be looking at the one month here in terms of what I see the potential for the correction obviously. So I'm looking for a correction in the dollar index in August. But then certainly again, I'll be looking as we head into September, October, and the elections, which I've talked about extensively. I see the potential for another significant leg down in the dollar and leg higher, obviously in the euro. So that's just some of the off the chart work that I pay attention to. And let's move on to the charts now. And this is the dollar index. This is the broad dollar index versus the six majors. So what I'm looking at here, I talked about last week, we've got this test of the trend line. If I just changed this chart. So last week I talked about the test of the trend line, we've got that big key reversal pattern. And I actually, I went long here and I had a couple of, couple of trades move into risk free. Then I went back in and I got, I got a couple of dings on that. But I'm certainly looking at this level, paying attention to this trend line. If we get a key reversal today, if we take out yesterday's highs on a closing basis, get up somewhere near that weekly pivot, then I'll once again jump in on the long side here in the dollar. I see the potential certainly for what I referred to as a symmetry swing. So looking at this leg here, being replicated from here. So that will put us up into the monthly pivot there at 9450. I don't expect it to be a straight line type move, but certainly we could grind up into there from current levels. And then and see where that takes us potentially into the end of August. And then I'll be looking for reversal patterns. We could extend obviously the 161 extension. So if we, if we get some traction here, we don't find sellers at this area, then I'd be looking up into here as the next area of interest in terms of shorting opportunities, what these two support areas to potentially act as resistance now. So these are the two key levels. If we can get a key reversal here in the dollar index heading into obviously we've got payrolls coming up tomorrow. And again, statistically, Friday and Mondays tend to be the optimum time to look for these meaningful lows or highs in terms of, in terms of opportunities. So see if we can get this closed tonight. Need to see a close above 9325. And that would, that would get me in on the long side in terms of the dollar. Initially looking at 9455. If nobody's home there, then I see us testing that 9580. Let's flip these charts back. Let's go to the equal weights of dollar index. So this is the Dow Jones dollar index, which is equally wasted against the Euro, the yen sterling in the Aussie. Aussie obviously isn't in the, in the broader dollar index wasn't included at that time. And, and we can see the same idea is, is at play here. Haven't quite tested down into, well, we're holding the median point of the channel here. So this would be an ideal area. If we can get a bullish reversal again, back through that one 2038 weekly pivot would be ideal. And then we'd have a potential double bottom scenario here, setting up initially the move for the monthly pivot 12114. And then that sending trend line resistance. And also look again, if we bring in the symmetry swing as a guide where we might run into trouble. So the symmetry swing at this stage would, would put us back into the descending trend line here. And then we'd see if sellers are interested at this area. Again, looking for bearish reversal patterns where I'd set short positions. Again, if nobody's home here and we don't get a signal, then, you know, we can certainly see this move up into this 1648 area versus this price room. So let's take a look at the euro. So the euros at the top of this channel, obviously similar, similar price structure to the dollar index as it, as it, it's the biggest component constituent of the dollar index. So for me today, what I've been looking for now is we need to get a close back through this 118 area to do something on the, on the short side. This, this is the near term volumized average price. And for me to get in on these daily positions, I need a close that breaches that, that fee WAP. And then what I've been looking for is obviously symmetry swings again are my first course of call in terms of target areas. So it's a bit of a stand into the 11650 area, but the monthly pivot just below the central tendency of the volatility bands coming in there as well. So something in around this 116 will be of interest. But once again, if, you know, if this, if the move gathers a bit of momentum and we, and we don't find buyers in this area, then the next area of interest is going to be a deeper pullback. So we bring this versus this leg here. And then that puts us back into these prior highs at 115, which will be what I consider really to be a gift of an opportunity. So if we get down back into this area looking for bullish reversal patterns here, set long positions, and then the initial objective there versus again using the symmetry structure would be that we get a move from there from that 115 that would put us up into 120. Again, ideally if we're going to see this depth of corrective move, we want to see this coming in and around the end of the month here. And then we see some reversal as we head into September when we get the liquidity back into the market. So watching for the close day, if I'm going to close below, below this MIWAP at 118, then I'd be looking once again on the short side of the dollar, initially targeting 116, nobody home. And then I'm looking at 115 before again, looking to reverse that position and do something on the long side. One trade I've got running at the moment is the Euro CAD. We tested up into a double top here. We have divergence and got a signal candle and it's dragging its heels at the moment. But as long as these candles stay red versus you can see here that although using normal charting, normal candles, this candle close green versus the MIWAP, it's red. So for me in terms of my strategy, this the trade stays on. I'm trailing the stock a little bit now, but ultimately I'm looking for a move back down into initially these prior highs, 155.30. And if we can extend then I'd be looking at volatility support down to 154. So that's the Euro CAD that I've got on at the moment. Let's take a look at sterling. So sterling is back up into this major trend line resistance. Again, watching this one here, if we get say a reversal, take out the MIWAP, 130.88 and ideally for it to be a key reversal, we need to take out yesterday's range. So you look at close below 130.50. Then once again, there's an opportunity there for sterling to experience a bit of weakness as we head into the back end of August before setting up for the next run higher. So that's another one that's on my radar. So the Aussie had a signal with the divergence here on the daily timeframe as always, sending trend line, descending, negative divergence, got the signal and got one position that went to risk free. And then I went back in and I got taken out for a 30 pit loss on a re-entry. But I'm still watching this because again, if we think in terms of process over outcome, so I'm not thinking you know, the short term strings of losing trades mean nothing to me. What I'm interested in is when I get a setup, do I take the trade? And if it meets my criteria, I take the trade. And so what I'm watching for now today is if we get a close back below the VWAP, then I'll go back in here. Obviously we're trading counter trends. So this is the month, this green line here, the thick one is the monthly VWAP. So the best trades are obviously where you're trading with the trend. The only time I'll trade counter trend is if I get a signal that is accompanied by divergence. So it's important again, this is the key to having a trading plan and back testing it and forward testing it, that it gives you the conviction to keep taking the trade. So whilst I've got divergence on the momentum study, I can continue to look at counter trend trades as long as they meet the my core swing strategies setup. And for me, that means we need to get a close now back below the VWAP. We've got the weekly pivot there, 7150, the close back through there. And I think we can get down into the 69 area in terms of the Aussie. What else am I looking at? Aussie Kiwi is looking interesting here. We've got a potential triple top developing. We've got the RSI stochastic overblown and potentially going to roll over here. So what I've been looking for again with this Aussie Kiwi, we can see the last time we've got this tweezers atop here. So I want to see a bearish close below 10790. There's an opportunity then to do something on the short side, certainly looking at the monthly pivot 10710 and get through there. Then I'm looking down into range support at 10585. Range support comes in with the volatility, the VWAP bands here. So again, it's counter trend, but we've got divergence on the, you can see we're making lower highs here in terms of momentum study. And we're at this triple top. So you can see we're struggling to get a close above this 10828. So again, if we can get a bearish tweezers top pattern here, then I see the potential to replicate this last leg of decline over here. So back into range support. Again, because of these summer months, I'm not anticipating big moves, but certainly if we can define ranges, then what we tend to see during the summer period is that we dig those ranges in terms of support and resistance. So that's what I'm watching in the Aussie Kiwi. I'm also still watching the Kiwi. So I'm looking for the Kiwi now to test this 6755. So this is the big, the beginning of the year or the end of last year high. And so what I'd ideally like to see now with Kiwi, and this would support the idea of the Aussie Kiwi trade working in the near term, is a move up into here like so. Let's see if we can get this. So we'll have this trend line here. So you can see we're carving out a potential wedge pattern here. So I'm looking for one last move up into these highs. And again, then what I'm looking for, because again, it is a counter trend trade. And the only justification for me to look at the counter trend trade is that we have negative divergence. So if we can get up into this area, keep this momentum slowly diverged, then I'll be looking at bearish reversal patterns 6745. And initial target back down into the monthly pivot. And then down to this 65 area would be the objective. Let's just see what we get from a symmetry swing. So yeah, the symmetry swing support would be back down 6555. And if we take that one out, then we've got this next biggest one here. So that puts us into that 65. So that's what I'm looking at with Kiwi. Ideally, we get this pop higher. The Aussie Kiwi sells off as we just talked about. And then when we get into this area, we get bearish reversal patterns, short positions looking at this 65 area. And so the Kiwi then brings us into the S&P and a similar type of pattern here. I'm looking for the S&Ps to retest this 3400 area. We've got a bunch of confidence there, 3402. Once we get up there, I'm looking for some profit taking. And we can see clearly, we've got some divergence here in terms of momentum. And so looking, ideally, the Kiwi trade will coincide with these S&Ps getting back up into this 3400 level, and then we get a pullback. Again, all I'm doing initially when I'm thinking about the target looking at symmetry swing. So even that would put us back into that 3100 area in terms of the S&Ps. NASDAQ, similar type of story here. Looking for, you can see clearly the momentum divergence. You get a pop up into the top side of this channel and a pullback there. And I think that we should see this idea then maybe of the risk rally running into a little bit of consolidation or correction ahead of September, October. Last but not least, gold. So like I say, gold's on tear. If we go to the weekly chart, that's probably easier. No, monthly chart. So I'm looking at a target here initially. So if we can get up into this 2146, which is the 1.272 extension of this last swing, we can get up there, then I've been looking at various reversal patterns as profit taken kicks in. And we've got all this stretch data, the sentiment stuff that I talked about at the beginning of this session. And what I'd look for there would be a pullback into retest the 1920 support. And from there, then you could be looking to get in on the long side. And we know that we've got that trend line coming in towards 2400. We've got the 161 extension of this leg here, also 2445. So that would be the pattern I'd be looking for in terms of gold, the stallout at 2146, pullback to the 1920, look for long positions there on the retest of the prior hyzer support. And then you've got a great target up towards this 2400 for the next leg higher in gold. So those are the charts that I'm watching guys as the opportunities, the trades I'm looking at and how I'm looking to to play the market over the coming, coming days. Are there any questions? You can type them into the chat box if you want to raise your hand like an unmute your microphone and you can have the joy of speaking to me live. Or you can just type in the chat box into the chart, you're interested in that I haven't covered. Feel free. Very basic question. How do you go out using the fib extensions as confidence? So with the fib extensions, you're just looking at the prior swing. So once we've taken out this high here, so basically once we're through the 78.6 percent of the tradesmen, you have a high probability that we're going to see the 127 extension. And so what I'm always watching for is when we get those breakouts for that 127 extension to basically set up either the potential for a reversal or at least for a correction back into those prior highs to complete them, what you can clearly see would be a five-way structure here. Let me just draw that in for you. So if we look at this as one, two, then all the way up here is potentially our three, and this is our four, and then we get our five. Does that make sense, Charlie? Mesa. Hi, Mesa. Hi, Patrick. How are you? Very good, D. How are you doing? I'm good. Thank you, Patrick. Just got a question about earlier. You've mentioned that it's better to use dailies for countertrend trades. Should I avoid the countertrend trades on our intraday completely? When we're in these heavily trending environments, let me go to one. So the Euro, for example, is a good example at the moment. So I mean, we're at this trending line. We can see by the tails here, there is supply in the market, or at least there's some profit taking. What you're doing in terms of the countertrend opportunity here is if we think about the central tendency of the volatility bands, which is a 20-period look back, so that's giving you an idea of the weekly VWAP, which is bullish, the monthly VWAP is bullish. So before really looking at the intraday charts, you want to see a daily confirmation, because the intraday chart, the setup that may look great on the hourly, the high probability scenario is the trend is going to continue until we see an exhaustion on the daily timeframe. That's what's going to attract the attention. Again, if you think about the idea that we're trying to ride the coattails of much bigger players in the market, it's unlikely that they're on the five-minute chart looking for a reversal, or even the hourly chart. These guys are paying attention to daily, weekly, and monthly charts. So it's once you get that daily reversal, that then, on the subsequent day, like I did on Monday in the trading, in the team chat, then you can look at using the intraday charts. But again, then what you want to be really specific about the area is, I mean, if we remove the drawings, and I'll show it goes to the hourly. So I mean, what I was looking at on Monday, obviously, we're using this as an impulsive decline. So initially, the area of interest is going to be the ABCD. So when we got up into this area, we've got that bearish reversal. There was no follow-through, so there's no trades. And then the next stop is the 161 extension, which now coincides with the double top. But if you look at the, if you look at the hourly structure now, you can see that what we've done at this point is simply hit symmetry swing support. We look at this leg here, and we overlay it versus the move off the top here. We've held it to the tick. So this is why I was saying in the chat earlier that we need to see 1830 go. Otherwise, we're setting up for a blow off here in terms of this pattern. Now, we're not getting meaningfully higher here. And once we get up into this area, we could get the, you know, then we could see a big reversal or a daily reversal because we've completed then a sequence. Does that make sense? Yeah, it does. So when trading the intraday, it's better off to go with trend continuation, correct? Yeah, look here, for example, as, you know, if you, once we've got the double VWAPs here, so we've got the daily and the hourly VWAP bullish, we know the monthly VWAP is bullish. So the path of lease resistance is higher. But the set up versus the dollar, if we think about the dollar index and we think about those major trend lines, it's, there is certainly you can use a reduced risk size to test the market, see if you can improve the risk reward of then getting into what could be a bigger move. But at the moment, you know, until we break this at 1830, then the euro, it still has, you know, potentially another height to make here, probably up to 1940. Okay. But earlier in the week, you've mentioned there's going to be some additional content about continuation trade. I've missed some webinars, was that done or is that going to be done in the future? It's going to be, it's going to be next, towards the back end of next week when we come to that. Okay, sure thing. Thank you, Patrick, that's all for me. Thanks, Messe. Samuel, when are you confident that the shift from bullish to bearish momentum has occurred for a possible short? So, Samuel, for me, what I'm always doing is I use these, these volume weighted average price as my, as my key indicator. And so, what we've got with, with, with the euro specifically at the moment, obviously, I use springers here. So we've got this channel. So we can see we've held that, we've had three touches there, we've held it. So if we project that versus this high, this gives us channel, projected channel resistance. What we've also got is symmetry swing, sorry, equality swing. So you can see we've come up into this area. So this, this becomes what I would say like an area of interest for me or potential action area. So when we got this reversal here, through the five period VWAP, knowing that we're up at the extremes, we didn't quite have divergence of search, but we know we're at extremes in terms of the momentum studies here. And once we get this candle, this is worth, you know, for my, you know, in terms of my risk capital, then this qualifies as an opportunity. And we did get some follow through, but then we quickly went back up, but now we're testing a potential double top here. So this is why again, if we get a close today back through 118, for my risk capital, it's worth taking a, taking an opportunity countertrend on the short side, understanding it's countertrend, and you can adjust your position size to, to, to account for that. But then what you're doing is you're looking at a position that will then give you an opportunity to join the major trends. And so like I say, the way I look at the, the areas of interest or potential action areas are using these prior swings. So like I said, if we take out the 116, then the next area of interest for me is going to be the quality move versus that structure there, we should have us back at these prior highs 115. Does that make sense, Samuel? Good stuff. Are there any other questions? If you want to take advantage of the free trial, if it's careerswap.com, I'll just put that in the chat. You can, you can find access to the two week free trial for that. And that pretty much concludes today's session, guys. If there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here. I hope it was useful and I hope you can, can join me second time next week. Thanks very much.