 Okay, very good morning to you. It's Tuesday 28th of April. Hope you're doing well First thing I just want to mention is obviously we've got the latest FMC meeting happening tomorrow night Wednesday And we're going to be covering that live via an exclusive kind of webinar using zoom video technology So on the link to this video, I'm going to put a registration link Feel free to join us. Absolutely. We're going to cover that. It's going to be me Will peers Sam. Everyone's going to be on board We're going to talk a little bit as well as the title would suggest not only about covering the latest Fed announcement But also a little bit about trading psychology So I'll share the link with everyone everyone is welcome to join but obviously anyone new to amplify I think this would be a really good session to hear from all the members of the team And also to see us cover a news driven event and being a kind of macro Fundamental firm in terms of what's core to our trading strategies. It'll probably be a good Session for you to see how we go about things. So yeah, I'll drop the link in the video So, please do register and join us tomorrow night if you are free But moving on, let's have a look at markets and let's have a look what's going on and generally a high close on Wall Street last night The S&P Dow finishing up approximately 1.5% and as that a little bit lower, but still positive territory Most of that coming, you know from a top level on the underpinned by sentiment improving a little bit about Economies talking about the easing of their lockdown measures across the globe in various different areas So equities generally a little bit were a little bit more buoyant T-notes down and you can see this morning a little bit of follow-through equities generally holding on to that move The DAX you can see in the center left here just forming a nice little base with some of the recent price action You can see from those highs that we were printing in yesterday morning This high initially when Europe came in just ahead of cash opening the futures market And then again when the US came in before that eventual break So really nice technical level of of interest there for support now in the DAX having played out quite nicely in yesterday's futures market With that then T-notes pretty much flat But as I said holding on to losses that were seen yesterday and gold continues to unwind some of its kind of premium If you like on the flight to quality status just as risk sentiment or appetite just picks up $1,700 the next kind of level beyond that of then the s2 Which is where we've seen a bit of a bounce already this morning in the future so trading at 1710 currency markets not too much going on I did hear the squawk talking about citing Barclays for Month-end flow something to just be mindful of as we go into obviously the end of April going into Friday being the first of May They've been talking about the potential for some downs moderate downside in the dollars We go into that month then so nothing to apply immediately right now But if that is going to be the case you might well see a little bit of downward pressure Over the next kind of 48 hours or so so worth bearing that in mind with the major pairs You're a dollar just forming a bit of a nice base around the the load that was seen yesterday Just after Europe exited the market had a bit of retest of that late Asia Pacific session around that 10828 mark Oil prices probably a bit of a standout I'm going to talk about that a little bit more but obviously a bit of an unwinding of those June futures contract from the US oil fund yesterday and We provided a nice kind of setup here that previous low we had on the 23rd and the overnight session We broke below that yesterday afternoon Obviously came back up to that level similar price point albeit a little bit choppy around the 6 p.m. Mark And then we've kind of come all the way back down under pressure a little bit exacerbated by the overnight conditions Of course in the Asia Pacific session managing to break that yesterday afternoon low That just saw us tumble from around $12 all the way down to sub 11 for a moment And that's kind of where we trade at the moment bang on 11 bucks down close to $2 for the session Let's just run through some of the headlines then and the calendar of what we've got on the agenda a quick update on COVID-19 This is going to focus on the UK I know a lot of the followers of this channel are based in the UK So you know as much as I can talk about markets I think it's worthwhile just for our own personal sake to know where we're at at the moment and obviously Boris Johnson returning to work After his his period with dealing with the virus himself over recent weeks UK There were 360 hospital deaths from the disease yesterday, and that was the lowest daily number since the 28th of March While the seven-day average is showing a gradual decline in mortality Johnson said that lifting The curbs too early would risk a second spike in the infections The chief medical officer Chris witty warned the coming months of fraught with uncertainty So definitely a bit of a different tone from the lights of Boris witty probably slightly more consistent in that sense But I'm trying to give the general public the overall reality check that I think is probably Necessary in order for them to manage what's like to be a very gradual Return to normality over extended period of time Which he did say that they're definitely not consistently past a peak Across the whole country The government is due to review restrictions at the end of the week There's been quite a few reports like the Times talking about that jobs is going to give more details Later on this week's assigned to be looking out for a sonac the the Chancellor of course He announced a program of government-backed micro loans for the UK smallest businesses talking about a very fast-track turn around for applications Of I think it was up to 50,000 pounds sterling But again the idea being to support those that really Backstop a lot of the the country's employment levels being the smaller firms So that's kind of where we're at with that at the moment with that in mind. I did actually tweet I think you probably saw it again my my handles there if you if you did want to follow my ramblings on Twitter But yesterday the telegraph were putting out what their kind of criteria for lockdown ending measures And this was their kind of five-point plan Protecting the NHS consistent declining death rates low infection rates across the board testing and PPE issues under control and Prevention of a second peak so the point I was making yesterday is that do you find it quite? Hard for them to be too aggressive with the winding down of lockdown given the fact that I would say on most of those five points They're currently not quite there yet So this is the kind of benchmark or guess reference point that you'd be looking at to ascertain Where are we? Where are we at this point in time and how close are we to that point? But again Johnson's like to give an update Given the pressure he's under from not just the public but also business communities in order to get the economy reopened Elsewhere oil prices as I just said to you WTI in terms of the June futures contract getting hammered yesterday again Obviously not quite as violent as what we saw last week But you know we are we have gone from where we were at the beginning of real reopening electronic trade Sunday night From around plus 16 dollars to trading now sub 11 So what exactly has been going on? Well the US oil fund United States oil fund the USO otherwise as it's known Unexpectedly began selling its holdings of the most active Contract that being now the de facto kind of front month June futures The ETF now has changed its investment policy five times in the last two weeks And that's incredible in terms of them trying to Mitigate this this kind of run if you like on those near-term contracts and looking to spread their average duration out now going out for I think it's up until the next 12 months or so An interesting point that I read in the Bloomberg article to be aware of and obviously everyone's been quite Sensitive to the situation about coming up to maximum capacity Of cushing and again, there's another tweet I did yesterday probably graphically can can help explain that And this is where we were at as of April 17th So obviously, you know things have got even more tight on Capacity since that point, but you can see here This is from the EIA weekly commercial crude oil inventories at cushing in Oklahoma And the working storage capacity is around 76 million So this is that green line and you can see here how rapidly Storage capacity has been diminishing That meaning that within three to four weeks we'd probably hit that green line Hence the reason why people have been panicking in the last week or so on this point though South Korea, which is the fourth biggest commercial storage capacity in Asia Was said to have run out of onshore space run by two big operators Elsewhere Singapore's coastline has become even more congested with oil laden tankers So again, they're just literally just sitting there at the moment and which obviously comes at quite a cost In order to avoid the US hub of cushing becoming more than 90% full in June may in June essentially That's oil so could we see more downside in the June contract I'd say Likely probably to be the case Again, if the USO are now exited all those positions It's unlikely that anyone any other type of investor particularly a speculator Which predominantly backstops a lot of these futures contracts It's going to be one of the core in this big negative Route and prices that we had before very tricky to try and get out of those positions So that might mean that there's just a real lack of buyers and and that might force the price back down and obviously When that does happen it can happen very quickly if it is quite illiquid in that front-month contract Elsewhere next story of note Federal Reserve last night came out with some more news So if you thought they'd taken every step possible while they've just gone another step further They've expanded the scope and duration as you can see here from the headlines of the municipal liquidity facility a $500 billion emergency lending program for state and local governments is what this is So a couple of details here. They lowered the population thresholds under which Counties and cities would be eligible to sell short-term debt to the facility a new term sheet for the program also adds a So-called fallen angel provision Something you might have seen a video on our channel from my colleague Eddie talking about and it's basically allowing some issuers whose credit ratings were downgraded after April 8th to qualify provided they had been rated investment grade by agencies as of that date So making these exceptional rules in order for it to be more accommodating To to help then on a more kind of county and city based level Earnings-wise it's been quite a lot actually To look out for today HSBC has already come out. I haven't heard of any pre-market calls as yet Head of the cash open. I mean, I'm filming this shortly after 7 a.m. London time HSBC expected credit losses swelled to 3 billion in Q1 almost double estimates The bank said that 2020 credit losses could swell to 7 to 11 billion US dollars a just a pre-tax profit missed consensus estimate But like other banks it has kind of made made hay with the kind of turbulent nature of markets Particularly through that period of the back end of Q1 in March They saw a 25% gain revenue in its global markets unit the banks medium-term financial targets They're going to be assessed During the year their dividend will be reviewed at or ahead Of their year-end results of 2020 is what they're saying at the moment The bank pushing ahead as or pushing back sorry with its restructuring program to deal with the virus at the moment Other banking names that have been out this morning UBS They reported lower credit losses in their peers including credit Suisse But sees major income streams being hurt by the impact of of COVID-19 and then one other European name Headline I saw this morning on Reuters Germany has agreed to help the airline Lufthansa With a rescue package worth 9 billion euros and they're called up about 2% last time that I saw Head of the market open terms of corporate earnings For today, this is just looking at the most anticipated earning releases in the US pre-market Gonna focus on the pre-market because people like alphabet for example, which are Due to come out after market. I'll be talking about those more later on today But for the pre-market names, those are a bit small to see but I did tweet this graphic out if you need it In a bit more detail, but essentially a few names that I am particularly Interested to see how the results come out as 3m Caterpillar visor now. These are the kind of the larger market cap names Pre-market. They are the 9th 14th and 29th biggest companies listed in the Dow Jones industrial average They account for approximately 8.6% of the entire Dow index reporting ahead of the opening bell So definitely worth keeping on the Dow futures Head of the the formal kind of US open Few things then as I was talking about this of some of the the kind of junior traders yesterday Caterpillar is quite an interesting one for a macro based kind of trader or analyst Caterpillar can be quite telling in terms of its Rolling machine orders. We tend to see them broken down into certain geographic areas like North South Americas the Asia Pacific region Europe and so on and that gives us a really nice Insight as to generally them being one of the largest industrial stocks to give an insight how to the pandemic is hitting the sector You know the heavy machinery maker Expected to post a 42% drop in first quarter profit and 18% decline in their revenues And they are very kind of telling I guess in terms of their performance in terms of the state of play Economically acting as that kind of bellwether Measurement for for general sentiment at that that point in time that outlook as well will be of particular interest You know, this is some of the key differences, I guess so, you know, we are not trading single stocks, but Does that mean that I ignore Single company news absolutely not I guess the the basic lesson here is about defining then who has large index market weightings If there's a cumulative larger proportion as there is today with roughly 9% or so now reporting That's obviously going to be potentially meaningful for the futures market, you know And then you have certain companies that can act as bellwethers as I said like Caterpillar Tomorrow you get Boeing pre-market now now Boeing obviously particularly large as a company quite highly ranked in the down in terms of Where it sits in the order in the hierarchy And particularly because you know a company like Boeing not only does it have, you know, circa hundred and fifty thousand staff worldwide But they also work with around 17,000 suppliers who are linked to the company and dependent on how a Boeing is doing is a little bit of an indicator Then to the potential ramifications for the employment sector from a macro point of view For the US economy. So, you know, these are the ways and means in which a macro kind of trader would look at this type of information As well as going through the kind of line by line financial statement. It's more about, you know, that kind of Implications for the general economic read across from the numbers We're seeing and also for any potential index moving point of view, which they've generally got to be a larger market cap or Kind of dominant within a fairly small sector As we're going to see I think AMD is another name that's coming out as well this week All right, so Yeah, here's the full kind of list of timings the first bigger companies start kicking off at around 1125 a.m. London time. You got PepsiCo Caterpillar 3m. You've also got big farm stocks So Pfizer Merck pre-market UPS as well all ahead of the opening bell then aftermarket probably the main ones you're looking out for alphabet Starbucks Mondays and then actually AMD is reporting aftermarket today. In fact, but again, I'll go after over the aftermarket ones a bit later From a calendar point of view. What have we got? Not really a great deal here certainly nothing of stature coming out of the UK and Europe today Then going into the US afternoon. No major Really major 130's You've got the advanced goods trade balance number and then you've got the US consumer confidence number 3 p.m. And then a weekly oil inventories from the API coming later on in the evening So that's pretty much it I'm just gonna quickly go back to this screen again I'll drop the link on the video. We're gonna be doing that broadcast live from 6 30 p.m. London time to give us a half an hour running to explain how we're gonna tackle that release and then we'll cover it live We're gonna do a bit of a session with Will as well on trading psychology So absolutely feel free to register and join us. I look forward to talking to you then But otherwise have a good day ahead any questions on on what I've covered Just feel free to leave a comment on the video. I'm happy to help. All right guys. Have a good day