 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We are at pretty critical junctures right now for both the NBA and the NHL in the NBA We've got scoring binges with guys going for 60 70 seeming like every single night in the NHL It's the final night before the all-star break as well So who better to break down thoughts on both of those sports than Tom Vecchio We're gonna talk to Tom about NBA for tonight to talk about that weird scoring output We've seen recently and break down his hair bets across the NHL for tonight as well This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a Fandall research joined here as mentioned by Tom Vecchio Check him out on Twitter at Tom underscore Vecchio Well, you of course a writer for us here at Fandall research the host of the Daily ISO as well in prime time Tom Tom happy Wednesday to you. How you doing today? I'm doing good. Yeah, really interesting time All-star break for the NHL trade deadline all-star break for the NBA coming up We're seeing a lot of unique and milestone games from some players But I do think there is something actionable out of that Oh a little tease from Tom about so we'll be discussing later on We're gonna dig into Tom and see what that theory may be about why scoring is up there We'll break down thoughts on the NHL slate for tonight as well to get you ready for your Wednesday night But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast had John Rothstein on yesterday Breaking down his thoughts on the college basketball landscape who he thinks is the number one team It is not the current favorite of Fandall sportsbook to win the national title got some Conference thoughts as well out of John find that in the covering the spread podcast feed on Fandall's YouTube page and over on Fandall TV plus as well along with my thoughts on Super Bowl 58 Talked about a money line there and a total that I like for chiefs and versus 49ers Happy Super Bowl to all who celebrate from Fandall America's number one sportsbook If you're like me Super Bowl Sunday is all about scoring the best scene on the couch grabbing your favorite football snacks and placing some bets Fandall has so many ways for you to end the season with a W or two or three Not only can you bet on who will win Super Bowl 58, but Fandall also has bets for which players will score a touchdown How many points will be scored and so much more new customers join today? You'll get $200 and bonus bets if your first bet of $5 or more wins Make every moment more a fandall and official sports betting partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and President select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC $10 first deposit required bonus issued as non withdrawal bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot Fandall comm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler over the fandall comm slash Rg in Colorado Iowa Michigan New Jersey, Ohio Pennsylvania Illinois Kentucky, Tennessee Virginia and Vermont call 1 800 next step or text next set to 5 3 3 4 2 in Arizona 1 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1 809 with it in Indiana 1 800 5 2 2 4700 visit ks gambling health comm in Kansas 1 877 770 stop in Louisiana visit md gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler net in West, Virginia 1 800 5 2 2 4700 in Wyoming Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you into 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 supporting Massachusetts or call 1 877 hoping y or text open y in New York Let's begin things by Tom by talking about those wild games We have seen here recently across the NBA Devin Booker is an action for tonight So very relevant for one of the national TV games huge single game outputs in the NBA from individuals Is there some sort of trend that's actionable for betting here or is it just variants? We've seen all these guys group them together and it happened to be in a one-week span Well the variants that it all happened within a few days of each other is just it is what it is however When we actually like dig into it. I do think we can find some trends that all these players are Similar so the players would be you know in bead going for 70 plus luka going for 70 plus Booker going for 40 50 60 and Crohn thing towns going for 60 plus So the first three players, you know Booker luka and bead all of them are in the top six of the league when it comes to total field goal attempts per game No, I should say, you know an average per game All these players also shooting the ball very effectively 48 percent for luka 53 for a four and bead and 50 percent for Booker So they're high volume shooters and they're also very effective They also take plenty of free throws especially like something like in bead now We could dig into each player and say You know go to like every detailed usage rate per 36 minutes Which we don't have to do but like the point is they're all very high volume shooters and they're also very effective at So if we're looking at players to like reach for the ceiling like what do they realistically need to do they need to be the primary shot taker on their team and When we try and equate that to like how do we make this actionable the example tonight is Obviously, as you said Devin Booker in action and one of these prime-time games his points props at 30 and a half minus 113 So it's where it should be, you know, that's where and I'm not saying this is one of my bets for tonight I'm just using right example So when we're looking at him, okay He's going off these 40 50 point scoring So we've been doing his whole career dating back to 2017 when we went for 70 points against Boston and You know, you look for 35 plus points on his alt market and it's at plus 190 now and 40 plus points that plus 500 so these are obviously huge outcomes, but This is within his like range of outcomes like if you look at a bell curve of his point production per night Like obviously these are on the higher end, but it's not like they're they are outliers. They are viable outcomes so like the example or the Kind of a comparison I would use is like a wide receiver in the NFL if his yardage total is at 78 79 80 Realistically that means he's like one or two and probably number one on the team when it comes to target He probably has a high air yard share high a doll like all these things So if you woke up one morning and saw him go for 100 plus yards, you're not surprised at all eight catches hundred yards You look okay, that's his normal thing So if we use the underlying metrics of players that are high usage high volume shooters good effective, you know efficiency from the field that Indicates us to a spot of saying they should be taking these shots. They can reach for 40 now I will add the caveat you can't have Just being super effective Like some players like Nick Claxton on on the Nets or Jared Allen who I've spoken about before in the Cavaliers They're their centers So they're shooting the ball like 60 plus percent from the field But they're only taking 11 field ball attempts again 10 field ball attempts So it's not just one or the other it has to be high usage high volume and effective overall so you're looking for the combination of both and looking into all markets and Taking advantage of volatility in the positive sense. I know the word volatility as a negative connotation But for betting it's good if you can look into all markets and try to find some value there now Booker as you alluded to Currently five to one to go for 40 plus. He has done that five times is here out of I think 38 games It's a it's a 13% clip implied odds there are 16% the Nets, you know Still pretty good defense, right? Okay, yeah, you've been a bit up and down as flee. Yeah, so like you have to take these things in consideration, but 16% is not that far off of 13% So you think it's a good environment if you think that he'll be for whatever reason inclined to shoot a bit more and be more effective It makes sense why you at least give consideration to all markets, even though that is a very high number, right? and You know part of that You know part of the problem is in like some of these Outcomes especially for something like in beat hood. I've talked about before where His points prop is gonna be like 36 37 and a half and some of these games like when they play Washington Or they play Detroit or Charlotte because they're in the east at the play max amount of times Like there are times and beat only gets to 34 points And he just doesn't play in the fourth quarter because they're like 20, right? So While he's in a super soft matchup He just doesn't have to be out there for 38 or 40 minutes, right? So taking the overall game into account is also vital along with their underlying metrics of efficiency and usage and whatnot Right. So thinking about do they have the building blocks for a bonanza? Yes, basically asking yourself Do they have those building blocks? If so, look at all markets. Obviously ask yourself. Is this good value? If not pass on it's okay But if it is good value there is a path to that it sounds like we've seen a lot of that here recently across the NBA Yes, let's dig in now and talk about that Suns and Nets games That is a national TV game for tonight Suns and Nets on ABC followed by Bucks and trailblazers blazers over on ESPN What are you seeing for these games as far as value for tonight at Fandall Sports Booktown? That would be going to Booker's teammate Kevin Durant making his return to Brooklyn And this is for the team I am buying into the narrative over 25 and a half points For Durant obviously there are some you know alternative pointals you can take but I like the 25 and a half point His shot volume is super strong. He's not in the top 10 league But he's you know in that top portion His shot volume actually has been a little bit lower in some of these recent games because Booker has been so good And so, you know, I'm trying to play a little bit of a narrative But it does make sense that you know as a Nets fan. I can tell you that them being like 5 and 15 over their last 20 games absolutely horrible whatever it is So they're struggling this game has a close three point spread It's a 231 over under a 233 over under for this game 233 three point spread. So we have these kind of core elements for a game environment Durant taking 12 field go temps or 15 field with temps is below his 19 average So just because Booker's had some hot games yet Durant took a back seat for a few games Not a big deal So I'm going to play into the narrative a little bit But it really does make sense with his overall shot volume his overall usage and the matchup I do think the Nets are struggling on defense. So we need over 25 and a half points for Durant So this is a situation where we haven't seen the Suns with all three of their big three healthy the entire year It's been more than a month or about a month now that we've had all three with Beale being healthy as well Does that play into it at all too or have we seen enough of a sample here where you're not worried about the fact they have three Legitimately very good mouse feeding this offense where you can still feel good about Durant Putting out the volume you need. Yeah, it's it's It's like sometimes one player just has the hot hand and that's been Booker So they can also get there of 20 plus points on the nightly basis who goes for 35 is obviously just You know pick your poison. Yeah, which player does it? But you know, I'm playing into the narrative along with I think Durant's shot volume has just been far too low Okay, so him Getting back to his positive regression to his average per game isn't a surprise even if this wasn't a revenge spot So you look to chill out basically. Well, yeah, I mean they could both go for 30. Sure. Sure. Very very true Okay, so Tom is on Kevin Durant in the revenge game over 25 and a points minus 113 f and dual sports because mentioned the other Games that in national tv is the Bucks and the Blazers that game on espn Late tip 10 10 p.m eastern for this one Bucks 10 and a half point favorites Doc rivers in town. We talked a bit about the implications of that last week here on the show Pretty decent spread in this game. What are you seeing for this one, Tom? Uh, another revenge spot for Damian Lillard Against his former team, but this one I think makes even even more sense where I spoke about dock rivers last week Like it's time to trust their veterans No more messing around with the rotation Coming off a loss in Denver And Lillard over three and a half made threes at plus 136. I think this number Is awesome a player that looked back at his game block and he takes nine 10 11 three point attempts on a nightly basis It's a massive spread in this. What would you say it was 12 points 10 and a half? Yeah 10 and a half Why because portland is terrible Right, they don't play good defense So seeing portland allow a lot of threes is kind of the calling card this year for anyone going against them or washington or Detroit all these terrible defenses So Lillard yeah his shot volume and three-point efficiency has been lower or I should say his efficiency has been lower He's still taking nine 10 threes per game Combined that with the fact that I said it's just time for the box to buckle down and trust your key players Which is a 10 scoompo and then Lillard in that order you throw in middle 10 you throw in brooklobe as and then you go from there so Lillard taking 10 threes doesn't shock anyone Getting it at plus money when we know that they should be tightening their rotation in a super soft match up against portland One of the worst teams in the league All of this lines up But I also think it goes back to the volatility discussion we had before Volatility is your friend in the right situations and three point shots are volatile three point made attempts are are volatile But you're getting plus 138 for him to get three and a half or get more than three and a half So in that sense you're benefiting from the volatility because you're getting more upside should it happen to be right So I think that makes a lot of sense Lillard is a very good shooter who has not been You know lighting it up recently from from deep But like there is regression there because we know long term Dude can shoot revenge game does not hurt either So I think it's another spot where different market, but you're still benefiting from the positive sides of volatility here Right. I I considered his pure a bet which I think is at 35 and a half 36 Because just saying okay. This is a player that again when he shoots for Uh, you know when he shoots and he gets hot Is a player that can hit 30 plus real points alone, right? But just based on the overall game environment This is a game where he may not need to have or he could just hit the four threes and have You know 20 some odd points and they kind of take care of business Yeah, so there are some permutations of how you approach this But again going with the upside of that volatility Lillard with over three and a half is the way to go the pra bet Tom alluded to 37 and a half right now for Lillard over is minus 102 for him in that revenge game for tonight Okay, let's take a look at the rest of the NBA slay any other bets stand out to use being good values at fandall sports book Tom Yeah, I was going to be on the magic and that number was four and a half but it moved to five So I want to actually go to a player prop instead if that you can get four and a half or four Yeah, whatever it may happen I would certainly be on with the magic I spoke about the magic a couple weeks ago They're this team that's great against the spread markets haven't caught up to them Etc etc. It's gonna be paula ben caro for the magic over 36 and a half pr a minus 115 awesome match up against san antonio san antonio top 10 league and offensive pace Uh magic playing up in pace paula ben caro leads at the magic with 30.5 offensive usage rate. He is Approaching superstar level As I've said, I think that he's ready to take the next step not this year fully But it's going to be next year when he takes that next step He's going to be averaging a double double on a nightly basis High volume shooter easy matchup pace up spot And again, I'm buying into the magic this season as being a very strong team And if they're going to be covering the spread, it's going to be paula ben caro one and then probably franz vagran Frans vagran number two as the reason as why they're coming away with the win And the market is buying the magic as you mentioned going from four and a half to five Ben caro is now minus 120 to go over 36 and a half pr a The implied odds there 54.5 versus a minus 115 53.5 So that's a tick up a percentage up a percentage point How high would you be willing to go with this number minus 125 the back out zone? If it goes up to 37 and a half are you out then what are you feeling as far as potential movement on this one? Not 37 and a half. Okay, but minus 125 is fine. Okay, so keeping on the month. Yeah, it's thin Okay, so keeping on the boncaro pr a number right now over 36 and a half is minus 120 But tom likes that in addition to daniel lillard over three and a half made threes at plus 138 And paolo bonk and kd over 25 and a half points, which is minus 113 Let's talk about the nhl tonight tom and this is the final game Final slate for them before the all-star break and When it comes to the nba, I give very nervous about betting things when it great for the all-star break So we can't see guys Get some additional rest Is that a concern in the nhl or is it pretty much all systems go on that side? For the most part it's pretty standard The only times players don't see normal minutes is in a blowout in either direction Where you know like a top top line center and and wingers they say they see 21 22 ishman's game 20 somewhere around there in a blowout in either direction if their team's up 5 to 1 in the third You know those numbers sometimes you see them at like 17 minutes because they rolled the third and the fourth line more So it's super situational I will say between last night's games both underdogs coming away with wins for you know, seattle was minus 250 last night and they got shut out and lost We're seeing some lack of energy games okay, so the teams are Still operating normally. It's just like it seems like almost early season games We're just like they're kind of just going through the motions. So that's the one caveat. I would I would know Okay So be a bit more wary when it comes to that and I think the energy thing might be reflected in the uh the totals for tonight because Three games in the slate two of them have totals of five and a half heavily juiced towards the over So you know keep that in mind as well But let's start things off here by talking kings versus predators Pretty even match up here money line for the kings minus 115 Predators minus 104 this game is on t and t tonight. It bets you like in that one specifically tom Only one and that's going to be with philliforsberg for the predators Over three and a half shots minus 130 and five plus shots at plus 172 The kings our team I spoke about earlier in the season and I said that they are a stanley cup contender And I said that they were doing everything right super deep down the middle At the center position, which is very important in the playoffs. They play great defense They play great goaltending and over the past month Literally everything has flipped to the other side where they look terrible So they are they cannot wait for the all-star break because things cannot be going worse for them I like forsberg because a this is a clear bounce back spot for the predators against a team that is Absolutely struggling right now forsberg is tied for sixth in the league the most shots on goal He's averaging 3.9 per game So yeah, there's a little bit juice on his normal over three and a half But when we look back at his game log and we're seeing nine five six five five five shots on goal The five plus at plus 172 when we're seeing it five or six times in the last ten games Now going up against the struggling team Really does make sense. I will also say his goal odds are a plus 140 If I remember correctly, he only has one goal over his last five games And he's shooting at this immense high volume at the top six in the league So 140 is accurate if you can get it at 150. That's a buy-in spot. It's just too low right now Okay, now I want to ask you about your process here when it comes to laddering shot props because I think about this in the same way I think about like Money lines for underdogs in the NFL. I if I show value on both I will bet both I take my typical bet size and I allocate typically about 70 to the spread 30 to the money line to give myself more upside How do you do that when it comes to obviously it changes based on the market and stuff like that But what percentage of your typical bet size are you putting towards the traditional market versus the all market to get that upside? It depends on matchup, but You know like tonight, for example with fordsburg, I wouldn't mind like personally I wouldn't mind putting on like two units on over three and a half Just because I feel very strongly about that five plus six plus as you ladder it up The five plus is probably just going to be like a half unit play for me Okay, where I like I love the odds on an a plus 172 I love his probability to actually hit it which is averaging 3.9 per game Especially it was a recent stretch now going up against a very struggling team in the kings Five plus is well within his range of outcomes when you see when you see you get them up up to nine That's obviously insane and we're not going to be banking on that on a nightly basis so I would go Heavy on the three and a half two units and then Five plus is probably half you know play for me tonight Okay, perfect So majority of it goes on the traditional market But then a little bit more upside just in case fordsburg does have one of those Nine shot nights so five plus shots for fordsburg plus 172 And then the over three and a half is minus 130 right now at vandal sportsbook two other games across the nhl for tonight Where are you seeing value there tom? Unfortunately, that's what the sharks and the docks two of the worst teams in the league The sharks are the actual worst team in the league They happen to be on the second night of a back-to-back by no means Do I think the docks are a good team? They are better than the sharks, but they're by no means a good team Sharks are dead last in the league this season for the most shot attempts allowed for 60 minutes in five and five situations The sharks also had to travel So the docks have been sitting at home There's no reason they should be a losing this game But i'm not willing to bet on them because they're not a good team So I would just simply go to troy terry for a shot prop over two and a half minus 132 He leads the team In shots over the last 10 games. He is he's a very good goal scorer He's having a very clear down year in terms of shot variance and shot percentage Very slow starts the season for him He's been picking the goals up as of late goals are highly variable They're also a terrible team. So they're actually getting consistent shots or consistent Scoring chances, I should say is is not something I'm willing to bank on but the shots are for troy terry So over two and a half very simple minus 132. There's a little bit of juice there. I would not ladder this player That there's a completely different You know way to go about it, but minus 132. I think is fine juice against the worst team in the league Okay, that is for troy terry and the sharks versus docks match up over two and a half shots Minus 132 at vandal sportsbook. That's in addition to the fill of fordsburg over three and a half shots minus 130 And fordsburg to get five plus shots, which is plus 172 That is tom vecchio check him out on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one find him over on the daily iso Today not the next couple of days because tom is on vacation tom enjoy the time off and we'll talk to you once again next week Thanks for having me see then All righty find tom on twitter at tom underscore vecchio one I am on twitter at jim sonnis you can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and find fan dual research on twitter At fan dual research tomorrow. We're talking e pl with austin cast and i'll be talking Nascar with the bushlight clash out of the la coliseum. We'll talk to all of you that This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network