 Well, it's a pleasure being with you all here today and thank you for coming out at 10 in the morning I can't believe it. There's music this evening. So we disambiguated and they put me at 10 in the morning, but that's good Let me just start by saying jumping in and saying I'm I usually talk about Syria But enough of Syria. We're gonna do great power rivalry in the Middle East This is what everybody is talking about certainly in the CIA and everything else Recruiter for the Defense Intelligence Agency an old student of mine came to University of Oklahoma He said tell all your students not to say Middle East say great power rivalry So I'm glad to say to announce to you that I am on the cutting edge Now here just last week Bill Burns the head of the CIA Gave a talk about great power rivalry in the Middle East and he said it is a world in which the US is no longer the only big kid on the geopolitical block The weight of the hedging middle is growing and that's what I'm going to talk to you about today is the hedging Middle and in particular Saudi Arabia and the UAE which are the two big Economic powers in the Middle East and traditional allies of the United States and how they have begun to move towards China And out of the US's orbit These countries he said see little benefit and lots of risk in monogamous geopolitical relationships and His use of the word monogamous was well chosen because there are few Saudi Commentators who've used this sort of tongue-in-cheek about the polygamist relationship that Saudi Arabia is now searching for Although they love the United States They're looking for other partners as well and they say this a little bit to mock America I guess because we're constantly criticizing them for polygamy. So it but he used that word I think very specifically because it's been used quite a bit in the newspapers Now, let's be just give you a big picture of a relative Decline for the United States the United States is still the biggest economy in the world It's by far the biggest military as we know, but relative decline Meaning that we're not in decline But the rest of the world is growing so rapidly that in relationship to the rest of the world We are in decline and we look at this, you know, you can see that 1960 The US had 40% of global GDP Phenomenon is 50% after World War two because of course Europe and everybody else was on their knees and that has gone down You know fortunately, it's only 24% which is still pretty damn good But as you can see the rest of the world is screaming up and China is growing Tremendously and we're going to get into that Here is another graph to help you visualize this change in relative power. The United States is by far still the biggest economy in total output in both trade Manufacturers and services services are very important because that's what China doesn't have so much We have banking we have entertainment if you think of all the movies and everything you we have we have tons of services that the rest of the world doesn't provide where we dominate but in terms of Manufacturing and so forth China is going to be is screened ahead. You can see with it manufacturing China two trillion dollars or 20% of world industrial output The United States is only 18% the next Japan 10% Germany 700 billion which is like 7% and it goes down from there pretty rapidly but in terms of You can see where and I'm going to Saudi Arabia is here and UAE and Qatar are right here So that's our Middle East and Israel of course is big as well That's the Middle East region That we're talking about which is not a giant share of world power But they're middling powers that will that have been very closely aligned with the United States and dominated by US trade until recently here is if We take the same stuff, but we put it in Purchasing power parody what they call is it an exchange rate if you use an exchange rate between a dollar and foreign currencies Based on what you could buy the same basket of goods then China comes up much more strongly because the Chinese currency is Weak compared to the dollar they've kept it low, but it can buy a lot in China So that's another measure and here you see China moving ahead and both the EU and the United States coming down and The Middle East region is pretty It's not doing well. The Middle East by and large Saudi Arabia and the Gulf are doing very well They're growing at breakneck pace, but kind of like Iraq Syria Iran So forth have not been doing well and and that's what brings their numbers down So we're just going to talk about These two countries here is a picture of NBC and MBS Muhammad bin Zayed is The leader of the United Arab Emirates. He's older. He's been on the pot longer and And here's a Saudi Crown Prince and B.S. Muhammad bin Salman His father is still the king, but he's very aged and infirm So it's really since 2017 it's been MBS who came to the pot about at the age of 30 is now 37 he as a dominant power very full of himself in many ways according to America and But the Saudi youth and Saudis love him. He's changed Saudi dramatically From concentrating the Wahhabi religion and he got rid of he's given women the right to drive and the right to work and Have their own passports and so forth Movie theaters have been opened. He's really opened up Saudi society and he looks to and yes Really The UAE has been doing When our and I just spent a week in the UAE over spring break in March and I went to talk to an Israeli It was an organization run by an Israeli Russian, but it was to Russian businessmen. There were about a hundred Very wealthy Russian businessmen who were moving their families and their businesses to the United Arab Emirates the United Arab Emirates is the number one destination for new businesses and for World, it's the easiest world trade you can get a golden visa for ten years You don't pay taxes there are Minimal taxes for businesses to move to UAE and it's been growing at you know seven percent a year It just everywhere. We look their cranes All the schools are most of schools are in English. So even UAE kids Speak in English. We talked to a few Dignitaries there who were there to speak the Russians and they said my kids now speak English at home With friends and so forth half in English half in Arabic He said it's very disconcerting to have your kids lose their culture but if we want to be competitive, this is what we have to do and When aren't I went out with a Syrian friend who's runs a business a building business building supply business We started a restaurant and the kids in front of the restaurant playing on the beach were Different from different Nationalities and they were all speaking together in English. It was really something. It was really extraordinary We asked our Syrian friend who this building supply where he gets his stuff from he said a hundred percent from China everything nothing from the United States so That's a little anecdotal beginning to this Let's look first at the UAE because It is set the model for the region Muhammad bin Zayed Rejected Biden's invitation to come to Washington earlier this year When Biden was in Saudi Arabia, he made an announcement He didn't want Mvz to get hurt feelings and he said please come to Washington Mvz has not gone to Washington has not responded to his thing. He's been upset with the United States and Has been moving his relations or expanding relations with both Russia and China in a sense to try to To try to reassure his country Because he feels the United States has not stood up for the UAE Both against Iran and against scuds that came from Yemen But were where Iran was behind them that were launched both in 2019 and just 2022 into the UAE because the UAE had joined with Saudi Arabia in attacking the Houthis in Yemen and so Yemen tried to hit back and punish them by sending these missiles that had gotten from Iran into both countries and And the UAE looked to the United States to do something about it and the US didn't do anything about it First under Trump, but then under Biden and so that upset them tremendously But the Emirati peak with Washington began under Obama earlier once President Obama Came up with his nuclear deal with Iran in 2015 16 It was done behind the backs of both Saudi Arabia and And The UAE and they felt that Obama was really abandoning them and was saying, you know You're gonna have to work this out yourselves, and we're not gonna choose between the two of you We're gonna keep a balance of power, and we don't want to have to go to war Against Iran that was the pressing issue for the United States. We don't have to bomb Iran's nuclear facilities Because those are the guarantees we've given to Israel we've promised Israel that if Iran gets close to developing a bomb we will bomb we will stop them from doing it and Obama thought We got to stop them from doing this and then we have to make a deal because otherwise we'll be on the hook for doing military action and He didn't like Iraq or Afghanistan was trying to get us out of these places. Last thing you want to do is get us further into the Middle East so that's the background for Obama's doing this deal with Iran and Both, Saudi Arabia and the Emirates felt very badly about this Obama also called the Emirati's free riders on America's Defense dollar Then he became a drone attacks Under Trump and Biden and which the America did very little technology restrictions are another Problem for the UAE The United States has a treaty or has an agreement with Israel for a qualitative military edge that No combination of Arab countries should be able to Attack Israel that Israel should be able to defeat any number of Arab nations and that means not selling Arab nations fancy equipment that he has given to Israel and That of course upsets them And they are as it drives them towards China and Russia to get missile technology and so forth President Trump Under the Abraham Accords Which he negotiated and the UAE was the first in spirit of the Abraham Accords UAE signed up for the Abraham Accords under Trump because it wanted F-35s those are fancy jets that are you know that radar escaping and so forth and Normally we said no but Trump said yes if you sign peace with Israel and he worked it out with Israel when Biden came along and with Congressional pressure they stopped the sale and Of these arms and so which has caused it hasn't caused the UAE to turn away from Israel Israel UAE is working with Israel There were tons of Israeli businessmen who would already move their businesses to the UAE when I was there And I talked to a bunch of Israeli Russians who were saying that they're also bringing Israelis because it's Good tax shelter. You can trade with everybody. You don't have the Israeli imprint which which Stumbles trades as part of the Middle East and so Israelis are moving also and the UAE is continuing that relationship Although it got upset with the United States for not carrying through with this arms deal So the UAE is turned to French fighters UAE fighters that is looking at it hasn't it's bought some but it's really It's looking for this next tier of technology because it wants to be at the top And that for that it's turned towards China And they're they're worried about their economic growth So let's look at a few numbers for the UAE The UAE is the Arab world's number two largest economy It's growing at 7.6 percent this year and has been growing at break-up pace for a number of years It will double the size of its economy by 2031 now It's only a nation of 10 million people and 8 million of those people are Foreign nationals who work there Indians and oh from all over the world Young enterprising people are moving to the UAE in droves as we said we went out to dinner with our Syrian friend during the Syrian Civil War every really Well-educated Syrian tried to get to the UAE To start a business to be a doctor to whatever the same thing happened in Iraq once America invaded and their country fell apart All the upper middle class tries to get to the Gulf and the UAE has been very accommodating So they've got tons of Palestinians. They tons of Iranians 10% of their businessmen are Iranians who left after the Iranian Revolution Have gone to UAE. So the UAE has really been able to cannibalize all of The upper middle class in the Middle East particularly to the countries where America has laid waste to the economists So it's been a very profitable, but it means you have people who are angry at America in the country as well The UAE is China's second largest Economic partner in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia bilateral trade between the US and the UAE 23 billion roughly China's 75 billion So it's three times larger It's projected to hit 200 billion by 2030. There have been tons of trade missions back and forth and they're trying to Anyway, 6,000 Chinese businesses operate in the UAE and many of them have their headquarters in UAE for the Middle East because it's such a It's such a good place to do business so you can see 20 years ago the United States trade dominated the UAE and Saudi Arabia today, it's China trade and That of course it sets a foundation. We don't even have to believe in Marx to realize that the economy is what drives things Okay, this is a bit overcrowded here high technology for the UAE if we just go and look at a few things The UAE Began to the China began to build a port In the UAE and a military Military base in the UAE America got furious made them stop it about two years ago But just this year they discovered that the base is once again active and China is building things And Despite Emirati assurances to the contrary the US detected renew activity in building of People's Liberation Army Logistic site on this base there seem to be moving ahead The Emirates rejected US and treaties To close China's telecoms giant Huawei This has been the major struggle with a lot of Eric countries is they want to go Huawei It's much cheaper to get their 5G the trouble is America sees it really is a stalking horse for Chinese intelligence and military power because it allows America believes that it allows China to listen in on all these conversations and also to spy on American bases So with increased activity with China Space exploration which both the UAE and Saudi are getting in with with China to send up rockets and satellite systems for the UAE There's a lot of sharing of intelligence with China so America which has been working closely with both these countries as a center for their defensive agreements in the Middle East are getting tons of intelligence from America and We believe they're just you know They're sharing with China either intentionally or unintentionally because China is beginning to develop all this communications network in both kingdoms Growing partnership between intelligence agencies is a serious challenge to the US China and the UAE agreed to cooperate on a rover for lunar South Pole exploration so both countries Saudi Arabia and UAE are very interested in space exploration and rocketry and missiles and China offers them that technology the United States has refused to give them any of that technology So they're going elsewhere because they can Why wouldn't they? so that's America's gonna have a hard time dealing with them during the Cold War if you think of Nasser others we could smush them If they wandered away and tried to become non-aligned people like Tito and Cuba and Egypt We could really come down on like a ton of bricks today It's not clear that we can do that because they really have alternatives and our military power We can't just overthrow countries We could overthrow the Iranian regime in 1953, which we did for three million dollars It was the great triumph of the CIA Today we've been trying to overthrow the Iranian regime for decades. We've spent trill you know millions of dollars on this Convincing other countries not to trade with them to follow our sanctions all this sort of thing has cost us a lot of money And we can't do it. We haven't been successful. So it just shows you the relative power of those two periods Not only that but the UAE has been busting sanctions on Russia You know they're letting all these people in I mentioned to a friend who works in a national security council Just a few weeks ago. I went down and talked to the head of the Middle East guy and gulf person and He said when I told him what I've been to the UAE and talk to us. Oh, you're helping bus sanctions You know, that's what does on their mind is the way that the UAE has been has been cooperating For example, the value of electronic parts shipped from the UAE to Russia increased by a factor of seven fold from 2021 to 2022 so once sanctions were placed on Russia they began getting all their chips through the UAE and A load of Iranian drones was shipped to the UAE and then Tranship to Russia. So UAE has been helping Russia in all kinds of ways fight this war because it sees it as this is an opportunity this is business and Okay, let me switch and touch on Saudi Arabia for a few minutes before we close here President Trump doubled down on the relationship The traditional good relationship with Saudi Arabia as we know his son-in-law Spearheaded this effort and it was a very simple exchange To get Abraham accords going if Israel would help if if Saudi Arabia would help Israel With its Palestinian problem the United States Would Trump would stop the Iran deal nuclear deal, which he called the worst deal ever and he did He also moved the embassy to Jerusalem. He Recognized the Golan Heights were Israeli and so forth and this and the Saudis said nothing they helped Smooth over this recognition of what had really become de facto reality in the Middle East and the Saudis went along with it because they thought America was going to come down on Iran hard and squeeze them and break them And that was a basis of this plan and much of the Gulf Leadership of the Gulf country believes that Palestinians are never going to get a state This is a finished problem sort of like the Mexican-American war where you finally have to say You know, Texas and New Mexico are never going to go back and let's get over it and that was the basis for this Then came up cake Iran struck Saudi's biggest refinery oil refinery 50% roughly 50% of its oil refinery was stopped for about a week because it's missiles and Hit this big refinery Saudi Arabia immediately looked to President Trump To do something about it President Trump threw up his hand and said we'll sell you more Patriot missiles and other things that didn't work to stop these but we can help you build up your technology So you can and said he was furious They wanted America to strike Iran and to send a message that we're defending United Saudi Arabia They're a key partner and and we didn't do it Then in the presidential race President Biden Took on Saudi Arabia because he saw it as the baby of Trump So in order to try to run against Trump. He immediately called MBS a pariah said he would treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah now we have to remember this is just after the killing of The Saudi journalist who was also American citizen Khashoggi and So America had turned in the Democratic Party had really turned against Saudi Arabia So he played to his base. He said we're going to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah And I won't sell them any more arms. Etc. Etc. We're going to stop the Yemeni War Which America had supported Saudi Arabia in the UAE and that and of course as soon as he became president He had to reverse course on that and go back for the famous visit and the fist Pump with with MBS because Saudi Arabia is important We can't turn our backs on Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia is the key engine To OPEC it exports more oil than any other country it exports It produces the same amount of oil as Saudi Arabia as Russia America has surpassed it. Saudi Arabia is about 10 million barrels a day. The United States is 12 million barrels a day, but Because it's a small country in terms of population it exports 7 million barrels of oil a day and that means it can flood the market or restrict it and it's the head of OPEC and a US relationship with Saudi Arabia has been built on being able to influence Saudi production and Saudi has usually changed its production levels According to the wishes of the United States president. It's not always there's always a negotiation But the basic change has been security for Saudi Arabia and you give us You know cheapish oil and we'll work out our relationship with you on supply of oil and presidents generally ask for more production of oil before elections Brings down the price of oil Brings down inflation everything runs smoothly and the Saudis do this For the beauty of America. I think I think I had arms and the other other goodies in exchange for that Biden Asked Saudi Arabia to do just that Just before mid-term elections remember inflation was at 10% and the Republicans were beating up on a Biden So he said look it help us bring down inflation bring down oil prices before the elections That'll help me and we'll help you The Saudi said no We're not going to do it. They rate in fact they reduced because they were worried that China Economy was slowing the world economy is slowing there were that prices would fall and Saudi Arabia Digested the opposite of what America wanted and of course it's working closely with Russia Russia is now at you know, they call it OPEC plus Russia is a part of OPEC and Negotiates with Russia to keep supply and prices at it at a good what they consider to be the optimal Price America can't do that Even though we're the biggest supplier Because we don't have a state controlled oil system because we have a capitalist system. It's always boom and bust All of those wells in Texas in Oklahoma the government can't control how much they're taking out of the ground So they take out of the ground expand expand expand until the price collapses And then everybody goes bankrupt and they get thrown out of their jobs in Oklahoma and Texas And they have to wait a decade for it to come back and then they get back in but they cannot Manage it because it's a free market system. The rest of the world doesn't have a free market system and they can manage it All right, I get a little off track here But so Saudi Arabia and American relations went from bad to worse Over this period and they're pretty bad now, but Saudi Arabia has choices. It feels like it has choices and This led to China coming up with a deal between Iran and Saudi Arabia Saudi Arabia Understanding that America was not going to bomb Iran and that sanctions weren't working Began to look Began to try to balance to hedge against a possible Iranian War or Iranian further attacks at uptake or if Israel were to bomb Iran Iran has promised that it would attack Saudi Arabia first because that's the weak link Saudi Arabia can't really defend itself so well and To drive up oil prices. So it's an effort to scare America Into not allowing Israel to bomb Iran's nuclear plants because Iran is that we are going to close the straits of Hormuz and we will disrupt oil exports through the Persian Gulf and That will drive price of oil through the roof 200 300 percent and it will crash the American economy and so we'll screw you if you screw us That's the basic idea, but Saudi Arabia is at this is the vulnerable partner here So Saudi Arabia doesn't want that to happen So it needs to make peace with Iran because America isn't going to bomb Iran and Defend it So China swept in and China has very close relations with Iran has been the major power that has been Until recently as it has gone along with American sanctions on Iran But in the last year and two it's begun to take more Iran and help Iran get it out if you remember a Few years ago the number two of Huawei The daughter of the CEO of Huawei who is the chief financial officer was arrested in Canada America asked her to be arrested and delivered to the United States. Why because she was breaking sanctions on Iran She had helped develop shell companies for Huawei and was building out Iran's 5g network And America said you couldn't do that China said yes, we can because you're you cannot tell us who to sanction So Trump asked for her to be arrested when she was transiting Canada on a flight and Canada did it because they're nice to America and then China immediately arrested two or three major Chinese Canadian businessmen in China and held them hostage said you you if you don't let go of this CFO we won't let go of you and shot finally Canada let him go, but that's a kind of That's a kind of arm twisting that America's done for the sanctions on Iran And they weren't working, you know, China began to push back and China then began to take oil Say screw you. We're gonna take oil from Iran. So that's been So China had good offices with Iran and good offices with Saudi Arabia And it wanted peace between these two sides because it wants to trade And so it negotiated a peace agreement Between Iran and Saudi Arabia that was announced just you know Earlier this year and it flummoxed Washington the whole world began to go. Oh wow China has arrived as a peacemaker in the Middle East and Many Arabs were saying well America's a war maker in the Middle East But China's the peacemaker and it was a bad look for the United States US immediately said no, we're very happy with this piece We were the ones who really started it with negotiations in Iraq and blah blah blah But of course having China swoop in and get the get the big photo op was not a was not a good thing It's important to mention in the middle for MBS Vision 2030 his new plan for Building Saudi Arabia in his future is key to how he thinks about all this and why he is moving towards China and Russia and Leaving this monogamous relationship the United States and that's because He's worried that Saudi Arabia is just tied to petrochemicals that once they run out Saudi Arabia left back in the desert. So he's trying to change Saudi's economy to be a modern economy diversified from oil and gas In order to do that. He needs trade and he's really copying MBS Mbz except excuse me in UAE. He wants that kind of dynamic International economy with tourism so he's open Saudi up to tourism. He's said that the Saudi Airlines It's going to be as big as the Emirati Airlines And we're going to be the real entrepreneur and tourist hub of this entire region He is told Chinese businesses and other foreign businesses that are Centered in the UAE that if they want to trade with Saudi Arabia, they're gonna have to move their offices to Saudi Arabia so He's taking on and this has increased tensions With Mbz with the Emirates, but he's looking to that same model instead of the Wahhabi model of Conservative Islam He's really broken away from that and said that's yesterday. We don't want to be that he stopped funding all these Saudi schools abroad that Did fire up terrorism? I mean it's good for the United States is good for the world that he's adopted this kind of vision of a future futuristic more equality between women and men Getting Saudi integrated into the world not being the sort of hermit kingdom and and allowing people to come in and out now of course It's meant centralizing power around himself and he's thrown many people into jail and shaking them down He's let people know he's become much more dictatorial and much more like other Middle Eastern autocracies if you will but He's extremely popular in Saudi Arabia and part of his popularity comes from the fact that he's sticking America in the eye every once in a while and and he's let Biden and others know that they can't dictate to the Saudi Arabia anymore Let's just look at popular polls there have been a number of popular of polls For opinions of Arab point of view and there was a series done in young Arabs under the age of 29 One repoll poll reported that 80% of young Arabs viewed China as an ally and the US ranked number seven Russia is regarded as a top off top ally by 70% of young people 50% of young Arabs regard the US as an enemy Rather than an ally according to a BBC poll of young people In another poll people in five different countries including the UAE Egypt and Jordan all very close allies the United States Express greater confidence in Russia than in the United States Many accused the US and the EU of a double standards they said They pointed to you know very proactive response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine Whereas they say when Israel has taken Jerusalem or the Golan Heights and Exeter taken much of the West Bank The United States does nothing so for its allies. It's willing to Close its eyes to the rule-based order of the world that it's constantly talking about but for its enemies. It doesn't and many Arabs Argued that the invasion of Ukraine is no worse than US invasion of Iraq Okay The US now I've painted this picture of US decline in the Middle East, but let's correct that a little bit The US remains the dominant military power in the Middle East and military supplier of choice There are 30 US bases in the narrow Middle East. This is not including Pakistan and so forth And about 30,000 troops in the Middle East today, which has been drawn down considerably there about four years ago There were 60,000 the US share of the regional arms market has increased from 47 percent in 2010-14 to 54 percent more recently the cost of Okay, and then you can contrast that with the the amount of money America has spent on military in the Middle East over the last 20 years since the war on terror the US has spent According to this Costs of war project by Brown University has spent eight trillion dollars in Afghanistan Iraq Syria other places and there have been 900,000 deaths now. That's not just deaths from shooting. That's deaths from collateral from The destruction of medical provisions lack of food They you know so when Iraq fell apart and was in the middle of civil war. This is the Actuarial tables of the population of Iraq and what it should have been and what it hasn't been so It's exaggerating America's Direct responsibility for all this but it's trying to get a beyond just who was shot And that of course has produced a great deal of resentment In the Middle East in a sense that it that's underlying those popular polls where people are blaming the United States China's military in the Middle East is really Not there. They have a base in Djibouti just at the Horn with you can see it. Yemen is just across the way. Here's Yemen Djibouti and this is the Russian base that they're building here That's one of eight Russian bases in the world as opposed to almost 700 American bases And here's the American base. There's a Japanese base and a French base right next to it But so they're both watching over this and China does it to police the pilots that are stopping It's trade that's going through the Red Sea and up into the Mediterranean But another thing that's worth Talking about is that Six Arab countries have become Dialogue partners and are trying to join the Shanghai cooperation organization. That is China's answer to NATO if you will it's about defensive cooperation in mostly in Central Asia, but also moving through Asia and Many Middle Eastern countries have signed up to join that Iran is signed up to join it. Russia is a member. So America sees this as a As this counterbalance And they're all joining they want to join China and get The high technology that they can get so let's turn to conclusions here US partners in the Middle East are no longer satisfied With Washington's attempts to create exclusive US-led blocks. They're seeking alternatives and to diversify their partners China is the dominant economic power in the Middle East today China's foreign policy tends to be friendlier to authoritarian regimes if you think of in the war against Ukraine Russia and Ukraine America has Acastas as democracies versus autocracies and has tried to line up the democracies of the world against the autocracies and For the Middle Eastern countries all of which are autocracies It's pretty easy to see which side you should be lined up on because maybe you'll be sanctioned next and The Biden threat to treat Saudi Arabia as a pariah Sent, you know a shiver of anxiety Through the Gulf thinking maybe we could be sanctioned. Maybe we could be on that bad side of the ledger So China doesn't ask questions in its diplomacy. It's like the United States used to be in the 1950s When Britain was the colonial power in the Middle East Britain was going Suez. It was trying to overturn the Iranian government It was it was playing the tough guy trying to keep its military bases and the United States Could just trade free trade. It didn't have a military presence in the Middle East and everybody loved the United States That was the age in which partly the age in which I grew up in the Middle East where my father opened the first U.S. Bank of Saudi Arabia in 1958 and And Jeddah and he never had a bad loan in his four years in Saudi Arabia because he It was the whole world like the United States because we were not a colonial power And in a way China is like that today and America has become more like Great Britain after World War two A risk a retreating power that's trying to hold on to its military position in the Middle East China's foreign policy tends to be friendlier. Yes US history of wars in the region has turned public opinion against the US US's lower profile the Middle East You can argue has been good good for diplomacy good for peacemaking The peace with Iran has come from the fact that America Has withdrawn a bit and said we're not going to go to war against Iran for you therefore Saudi Arabia has to find another way and that means a Painful dialogue for itself and to make compromises and as compromises have come with Now peace negotiations for Yemen are much closer than they've ever been because Iran and Saudi Arabia are sitting down together to talk about it Syria Has just been brought back into the Arab League much to America should win But led by Saudi Arabia and the UAE who say we're not going to win against Iran in Syria We can't fight that war Even though America would like us to continue fighting in Syria. We're not going to do that because we need economic growth and if Saudi Arabia is to reach its 2030 plan of Rapid economic growth. It can't have scuds coming in from Yemen. It can't have disruptions It needs tourism. It needs to be secure and safe place for businesses and That's a positive future and you can say that America's retreat from the Middle East is allowing some of this There can be less wars and more diplomacy and on that note I Will end talk so thank you very much All right, that was that was about 40 minutes. We've got about 15 minutes for some questions and so forth Human rights take the high most I think you're absolutely right multipolar system Means that you're constantly in competition and if America takes its human rights Agenda like it did Biden during the election cycle accusing Saudi Arabia of being a human rights offender for killing Khashoggi He couldn't make good on that. He needed that relationship much more and Saudi Arabia showed that it was willing to churn to China and so forth and especially after the invasion of Ukraine where we needed our allies to line up with us and to Not help Saudi and not help Russia escape from sanctions and oil and so forth. We couldn't We couldn't move ahead on those human rights Demands Yeah It is Like Yes, I think it is that's obviously a worry because There are a hundred ways to get Advanced technology now and Israel has you know Israel is a partner with America on all the missile systems and so forth so The Abraham Accords of course, it's very leaky, but Israel for a long time has been working with China on missile technology You know for the last 20 years America has been very worried about that and constantly reminding them not to do too much China was going to build the port of Haifa about four years ago had put in the winning bid and and Israel was had moved ahead to Allow China to build America said you can't do it because we've got a port. We've got military Place right next door Israel back down. So Israel has stayed away from Huawei Jordan also an American ally just chose the finish Finish Telephone company to help it build its system and was going to go why would America put pressure on so Those are negotiations that are constantly going on, but you're right Israel and the UAE and Saudi Arabia are beginning to work particularly UAE are being to work closely on that kind of technology particularly missile missile technology which and getting so You know that is a way that technology gets to but Turkey Turkey just signed a 50 billion dollar deal with Saudi Arabia For drones and other high technology Turkey is a big center of military Arms advanced arms industry. They're building their own jet fighter now They're trying to and so more and more companies who want to get onto that Gravy train and especially missile technology to put up their own satellite systems so that they can have an independent Intelligence that's not totally dependent on the United States And so they're reaching to all the countries that do that Yeah Yeah, huh sounds like an amazing Complex chess game with kings and queens and bitches and knights and poems and I wonder you know chess is accessible to artificial intelligence Computers have been designed that can basically win any chess game Do you think any of the major players have our working artificial intelligence models of all this and sort of Figuring out what might happen. What's the best move this next move? Absolutely, you know war games Washington is constantly asking all these the Middle Eastern experts to come and play these war games and You know, it's very hard to know what people are really going to do But when we play war games against Iran Iran wins They stop the oil and things go bad sideways very quickly and which is one of the things that convinced us to convinced Obama to try to do this Nuclear deal with Iran so Yes, all this intelligence is being used all the time. I don't know if it's really convincing America It's hard for America to give up this notion of being you know being this the supreme power and Every one of our presidents runs every four years Claiming America is the greatest country in the world And I'm going to keep it the greatest country and that's one of the number one things that every American wants to hear Unfortunately, I think that's that's driving us to bankruptcy Because we've already spent a hundred and twenty billion dollars on Ukraine. We're gonna spend a lot more than that so that That eight trillion we just spent on the war on terror It's not stopping and we're at thirty two trillion dollars worth of debt and we're adding, you know, almost a trillion a year now So it is and if we keep on fighting these wars It leads us into but Americans like it. I don't know why I I don't know if Americans like it I think that's one of the reasons that Trump was actually popular because he said these forever wars and he said Iraq is the is the Harvard of Jihadism and that George Bush did that he criticized his own party terribly and I think Americans like that But the foreign policy establishment has become quite divorced From the everyday American who wants to spend money on schools on roads and other things don't want to spend money But for some reason Washington likes to spend money abroad. Yeah Here and then That's No Well, but we do Well, the trouble is you're right in theory. We don't but we have a lot of losers like Iraq or Syria We didn't set out to make them losers but once we realized we couldn't Turn them into the pro-American democracies we wanted We we've left them Broken If we take Syria as an example Where the Iranians and Russians that's sort of a one in Syria our special envoy to Syria our last special envoy We don't have them right now to Syria said Ambassador James Jeffery said my job is to turn Syria into a quagmire for Russia And you're wrong Which means if we can't have it We're gonna have it broken because we're not gonna let them have it. They're not gonna win this war They're not gonna win the peace for example, and and I think America does that not a lot But America punishes its enemies and it's done it more recently Than in the past and I think up until fairly recently America was a Generous country that helped to Marshall plan help with point for money in the Middle East helped lots of developing countries but more recently there's been a lot more military action and and But it's bad. It's bad for democracy, you know sanctions on Iran have brought The average GDP in Iran have halved it in about 10 years That's can't be good for democracy it it's good for weakening Iran and Punishing it, but it's not good for democracy because you do one of the only things we know about democracy promotion is that a lot higher per capita GDP helps in sticking democracy I don't know that I I think I have I would say most of the time America does try to help people develop it, but not all the time UAE yes United Arab Emirates Problems with climate change and making war in other words making war and preparing for war and building the instruments of war is quite devastating to is using fossil fuels and is accelerating our crisis which we're feeling here in Vermont now and So Why is it that there isn't a connection made between Issues of climate change and preparing for war you know I Just quoted Burns head of CIA and his speech that he makes about this the last half it is about climate change and about the need for America to Reorient its priorities But I think it's very hard to do that. It's very hard to do that because Americans are stuck on being the leader and we're fearful that without America you know a friend of mine and when I talked about what I was going to talk about said but You don't really want You know what what's a world going to be like? When America is not the leader and that anxiety of losing control Over international events is is a powerful anxiety I think because it there is a worry that a world where China and Russia are Balances the United States is going to be a more dangerous world. There's a world that we don't like and It keeps you know that does keep us from focusing on their priorities, which is no doubt about it Interpreted in talking about climate change as being a major factor in the amount of fossil fuel 22 gallons per minute That are as true in our in our skies by these planes in Burlington airport is really Should it is really important and is a negative factor to us coming up to speed with the goals of Well, you know that brings up the whole question of sort of corruption of the political process and the amount of The industrial military complex and if you look at the top think tanks, you know, I say it's just a study done recently over 50% of the funding for most of these think tanks comes from big arms companies and Which is perhaps one of the reasons why the foreign policy? Community is a little bit divorced from what the average American is worried about and keeps us, you know Engaged so many bases around You know, I don't know the answer to your question, but it's clear that United States isn't even though we can recognize The danger global warming we aren't putting the priorities and we aren't spending the money on it that we should be we're spending it in places like the military which is Which is big and you know, I was just looking at numbers for Oklahoma the other day of Oklahoma for every dollar of Oklahoma gives to Washington for the federal government it gets two dollars and One of those of course social security is atop and so forth But number three our veteran benefits That are gobbling up that our tax dollars Because there are so many veterans who've retired in Oklahoma. It's a cheap state and it gives a lot of military people Has a lot of bases and and that's a number three Consumer those tax dollars is just veteran affairs and health for veterans all the benefits that veterans get so It does consume the money In very odd ways when you put it that way Yes, I think also it's a it's a priority issue specifically with the military they Prioritize winning whatever that means about everything else It's like during World War two when they knew what was going on with the Holocaust They knew there were millions of Jews being killed, but they said don't bother us with that. We got to win Right well winning winning is important for everybody. We have a winning culture Yes, one more question Well, you know India has been coming up in the United States Blinken who just went To Saudi Arabia and so forth. He tried to present what he calls you to something too. It's it's United States and the United Arab Emirates It's you to I to and Israel and India and so he was Promoting and claiming that India in a sense could could Be with the United States and compete with China in the Middle East That Israel and India and the United States with the UAE could be this sort of virtuous competitors to the China effort to so The United States is selling India big today. The question is Is India really going to line up with the United States? And that there's a lot of debate over whether India is the kind of Democratic partner that America really is looking for whether they can Do what China has done You know, I went on just an anecdote on that I went to a trip to China not too long ago And I was doing the Great Wall thing and then the little micro bus with this Indian fellow a pilot Sitting next to me. And so I asked him. How do you you know? What do you make of China and its development compared to India? And he said we need a dictator We need a dictator like China what China has been able to do in his last decades We can't even build a road around our city. We can't do this. We can't because everybody's yelling at each other and it were to Democracy is not working is what he was saying and and so he was admiring this dictatorship now, I don't know I don't want to sit here and have my ending words be Incomium for dictatorship, but obviously India has a lot of a lot of difficulties in It's coming up strong But whether it can do what China is doing is another question and there are a lot of countries that are trying to compete with it but America is looking to India for that counterbalance to China and In his defensive agreements economic agreements and so forth. So India will clearly be a very major player in the future How it stacks up against China's too early to say thank you all for coming