 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. I hope everybody is having a wonderful start to their weekend. Hopefully everybody had a solid week of trading and hopefully everybody's just living their best life. Again, at the end of the day, that's the most important thing. Again, if you are brand new to the channel, only thing we ask, if you are getting value, continue to get value, and you are tuning in, please like, subscribe, share, all the good stuff that helps us grow and kind of spread the word for unbiased technical analysis. So that's it. Let's talk about the markets and let's talk about it. We had this really phenomenal run in the markets from January the 6th. There wasn't anything special about January the 6th. There wasn't anything more special than January the 5th to January the 4th. But at January 6th, we basically, as the market itself, just got toned up. Just got really toned up and sellers just got tired. That's it. The same thing that happened in 2008, going into 2009, actually, sorry, 2009, that was a generational bottom. I remember me talking to my buddies during that time and I used to say, well, why is this market ever going to stop going down? Just like that, it stopped going down. The market never needs to give you a reason why sellers get tired. Eventually, all news, no matter how bad or how indifferent the news is, eventually traders, investors, and everybody else in between, they get tired and they become toned up. That's exactly what happened and we started an incredible, incredible 6, 6 and a half week run. It was absolutely phenomenal. At one point, NASDAQ was up 17%, taking down, making back 17% of what it lost out of the 33% what it lost in 2022. A lot of people, a lot of traders, a lot of investors, they did a couple of things. Only they did three things. They either participate in the rally or the other two parties, basically, were sitting there and saying, well, how could the market go up and keep shorting, shorting, shorting until they finally got really wrecked six and a half weeks later. The argument was, well, how can the market go up? It doesn't make sense. Look what's happened with inflation. Look what's happened with the economy. It doesn't make sense. My argument was, the market never needs to make sense. It doesn't have to make sense. There's many times that Wall Street and Main Street just separate. They separate sometimes for six months to eight months to over a year. Again, this is why the market, there was a generational bottom in 2009, just started rallying while we were still in the first inning of recovery. Recovery from the economic meltdown that we had from 2007. It's one of those scenarios that nothing needs to make sense. Just concentrate on the price action. But the argument was on the way up was, well, Dan, well, not just Dan, well, bulls, right? Look at the data. Look at inflation. It's obviously not tamed. We're obviously going to be longer than this is possible. It doesn't make a difference what the Fed shares are saying. All 3,000 of the Fed governors are talking about, well, this is for the long run. How could the economy support what the stock market is doing for six and a half weeks? Well, nobody cared, right? Nobody cared until we got tired, right? In the same way, the sellers got tired in January the 6th. You could tell the buyers got tired somewhere around February the 8th and all day they tried to recover last week. You could tell they put in a lower high from the previous week and ultimately lost the five and a 10 day moving average. And again, if you've been watching this video for a long, long time, you know what happens when there's an inverted hammer, right? When there's an inverted hammer, usually you're going to follow, you know, some days maybe some days will turn into weeks, but short term selling and you could see it, you know, it happened right here just going back to, you know, going back to, you know, October. Here's a short term inverted hammer that was selling for about a week. Then there was another inverted hammer right here. There's more selling. So you kind of get the picture, right? You get an inverted hammer. So you got to sell it. So we got the selling and the difference between the selling that was going on in spurts during the really aggressive six week uptrend, the market finally got tired. The buyers got tired as well. And all the, you know, all the news that they were negating, all the data, the economic readings and the 3000 speeches that we hear from the Fed, Fed people daily, while the bulls couldn't, you know, couldn't keep up, you know, couldn't keep up and it just wasn't enough bids to facilitate the news. And ultimately, like I said, buyers got tired. And we, you know, we're in the middle of a pretty good, you know, pretty good decline here. Again, if you look at the overall uptrend, if you watched, you know, Wednesday's video, like I said, you know, we're just trying to get our data day after day after day to trade for the next day. But, you know, we talked about every single level. It's all started, it all started from the 297, right? From the 297 level on the NASDAQ that was really a big, big move down. And since we took down this 297 level, I think it was on Tuesday's video, Tuesday's video going into Wednesday, we talked about this 297 level, ever since we took down the 297 level, the queues have dialed down $7. That's a pretty big move. And again, which really shows you how important it is to really appreciate and understand and embrace technical analysis. Even if you're a fundamental trader or a fundamental investor, if you don't understand how important these crucial levels are, that you're going to be, you're going to have a really, really tough time trying to figure out the license plate of the truck that just ran you over. So it's very, very important to understand levels. And we'll get to key levels going back for this week. But you had notable clues as well. Not only that the bulls get tired this week, right? They started brushing off kind of good news, right? So NVIDIA had, you know, you can make a case. It's not really a testimony to NVIDIA's earnings, but everybody saw NVIDIA. They came out with earnings. You know, they'd be by eight cents. They used a lot of AI language, which is sexy talk right now. And the stock went up, you know, 35 points of the day. And usually when a leader, you know, when a leader like NVIDIA comes out with earnings, and again, usually would have a massive, massive follow through on the NASDAQ the next day. And when we gapped up, everybody's saying, well, just like Netflix, quote unquote, saved the market, you know, when the start of the earnings season, well, NVIDIA saved the market again. The only difference is the market didn't get saved. And after gapping up 200 points, 150, 200 points on the NASDAQ, the NASDAQ went red, right? NASDAQ went red again and Friday came around. You had more data that came out. The PCE reading came out. The data came in hot and blah, blah, blah, blah, blah. And then we went down again. And if you look at the numbers towards the end of the week, you know, pretty, pretty aggressive numbers. You got the S&P actually did the best out of all of them. We'll get the S&P of kind of a little bit of forecast going into this week. The S&P was down 2.7%. That was the best performing index out of all of them. You had the Dow was down 3% and the NASDAQ tech heavy index that, again, could have, you know, could have really had a really big rally on the video's earnings. They did not and they fell 3.3%. So the question going into this week is, well, number one, where are we technically? We're going to answer that in a second. And how long, you know, how long can we expect to be in this little downward cycle? Again, that is to be determined. We don't know if I knew that for a fact, I'd be a holy genius, which I'm not of a holy idiot, which is a fact, the king of the idiots undisputed. It will never, nobody will ever take my title. But the point is, you know, the point is, like I say in every single video, that's the greatest thing about all these little swiggly lines that a new trader say, well, Dan, I can be able to these swiggly lines. That's the point. You don't know, right? Not big, not because it's out of ignorance or anything else. But again, not a lot of people really believe that all these little unnecessary lines are very necessary. I happen to believe. And my experience of close to 24 years is really shown as to why all these lines are important to understand where all the grenades are placed so you don't step along. And that's kind of a conversation for a separate time. But let's talk about it, right? Let's talk about kind of where we are. We already know what happened. We already know the history of what happened so far as in 2023. Now our job is to figure out what happens next. Let's start off with the Nasdaq, okay? The overall, the overall view on the Nasdaq is still very, very positive. Again, you just all go from bull market to bear market just like that. We reclaim this 278 on the QQQs all the way back to January the 11th. And the longer we stay above this light blue line, right? Everybody see it? This light blue line, right? That's the 50 day moving average. So as of right now, as long as we stay above 285 on the QQs everything is okay. Doesn't mean we can't get there, right? But it means it's okay. The problem is, and this is where we start paying attention and if you've been a really consistent viewer of this channel for many years you know what happens. You know the formulas. As soon as we get below the 50 day moving average you can rip out your buy button. Sure, you're going to have to have, you're going to have days that markets in a rally very aggressively but the overall trend eight out of 10 days are always going to be down. That's kind of, we've been proven by data in 2022. So, and you can see here once we lost the 50 day moving average we just saw it selling a little across the board we got above the 50 day moving average solid buying. So as long as we stay above 285 on the QQs we're going to be all right. This whole trend will be intact. This whole active sequence, whatever you want to call it will be valid. But the question is can the bulls do that, right? Or is this one of those scenarios that, you know what, reality is finally caught up to the stock market, right? Where reality was completely being negated. Well now maybe this is time. Maybe this is all the inflation readings and economic readings and all the Fed warnings and all the recession talk and all that stuff that we've been negating and saying, no, no, no, no, no, it's not for me. It's not for me here. No evil. See no evil now. Maybe it's here, right? And we have to be adults about it. And this is why we always talk about trade both sides of the market. Don't fall over one stock. When don't fall over one side, be open, right? Be open to both sides of the market and trade the trend, not your opinion. So here's where things get a little bit more sticky for the bulls, right? Everybody see this whole bottom range here? Okay. The January 30th low is 289, 89, right? Everybody see that? It's called 290. I don't want to split hairs for 10 cents. You see what Friday's low is, right? 290, right? So you got 290 low of the bottom of the channel here, 290 low of the bottom of the channel here, right? That is our, that is our line in the sand, right? For that, right? The big line in the sand will be the 50 day. So 290 folks, and this is not a conversation piece. It's not a starting point for a discussion. If we start losing 290, just the same way we lost 297, well again, if you believe the whole PS60 theory, and a lot of you guys religiously do, right? We believe in the theory that stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand. So the way, the same way the Qs lost 297 traded out the 290, now if we start losing 290, right? This is whole range that started all the way back to January 30th, then we're gonna go all the way back here to the 50 day moving average, which is 285, right? And this is where, you know, when you test the 50 day moving average, I'll give you an example right now in a second on the spies, you could test it once, maybe succeed, if you test it twice and it goes, maybe you're looking for a hairier situation in the future, so 290 guys, that's the magic number. 290, write this down, write this down, tattoo it on your forehead, whatever you gotta do, just remember that number, because if you are long and you carry inventory and we close below 290, we have at least five coins down to the 50 day, and if we lose the 50 day, there's a whole can of worms that's going to open up. So that kind of leads us to the spies, right? We talked about the spies on Wednesday's video into, well, Wednesday's video, it was the whole video on Thursday, and we talked about how the spies tested and held the 50 day moving average twice. Everybody see that, right? That's the light blue line, it held the twice. And what happened on Friday, we finally lost at 296 level and went right back down again, that's the whole point of stocks trading from demand to demand, right? So it didn't stop randomly, it stopped right here. It stopped right on 150 day moving average. So if the longer we build below the 50 day moving average, and to the bull's credit, they did rally and closed right on it, which is basically giving you a 50-50 shot at the open on Monday. But if we start closing below this bottom channel here, we start closing below 293, folks. It's gonna go 293, it's not gonna seem that bad, but it's gonna go to 293, 290, and any close below 290, right? Look at the air pocket you have. So again, we're not trying to scare anybody, I'm not a bear, I'm not a bear, I'm not a bull, I'm an opportunist, I'm doing this for nearly a quarter of a century, next year is gonna be nearly a quarter of a century. It's a lot of freaking time, man, to do this shit. So I've seen a lot of this, right? Now, we've been talking about this day-to-day in real time, it's not, it's not Monday morning, quarterback, well, the market, well, you should've been doing it. No, that's what we do. That's the whole point of dissecting data every single day and being prepared, because if those levels get taken down, you have to be prepared. If you're a day trader, you have to be prepared to the downside. If you're an investor, start taking some proportion, like we were talking about in 2022, start hedging your book, but if not, your IRA, or whatever your traditional equities account, it's gonna start bleeding. But so you definitely have to be prepared, be one step ahead of it, in case these things happen. So major numbers going into the spies for the week is this 293, a 393 level. If it loses this 393 level, it's gonna go down to 390, it loses 390 bombs away. For the cues, let's just start talking about this 290 level, write that down, 290, that's the line in the Senate, 290 falls, I think we get a test of the 50-day moving average. Everything else really doesn't concern me. They'll all get pulled. The Russell is gonna mirror everything else. Once speculation comes out of the overall market, it's gonna start speculating, money's gonna come out of smaller names as well. So it's not really a big surprise, is Bitcoin and Ethereum not really my cup of tea, but are they gonna get affected if everything starts getting pulled? Yeah, that's the whole point. If you look at 2022, there was a bloodbath in cryptos and Bitcoin and so forth and so on, because there is no disconnection between crypto and the stock market. People thought it was, right, but it's 2022 really showed you that it didn't. When the market went down, the equities market went down, so went down crypto as well and many of these things didn't recover. So the market is going to be correlated with all asset class versus risk. The bulls, they desperately, desperately need to get back above that 290 level in the next couple of days, because if they don't, that 290 level will be in play. And the same thing for the spies, if they can't start reclaiming back the 400, then this 390, this 393 and 390 will be in its future. So going into Monday's session, I mean, look, I have majority of my setups at the downside. I mean, let's just be honest, we're at the bottom of the range. How can you turn around and go, oh, I like this one for a bounce? Well, if you like this one for a bounce and you don't love this one for a bounce, you go into the trade half-ass, right? And then again, risk reward is everything and the risk reward is different things to different people. But the point is when you're trading, you want to have a clear path to the channel and hopefully not something that you're taking your shot with a small risk. If you're taking a small risk, that means you have a small reward because you're unsure of the play. You never want to do anything half-ass. You're either pregnant or you're not pregnant. So if you have a level or murky level that the market needs to work through, it's better to either stay on the sideline or become a cash flow trader for that interval and kind of take shots and take unnecessary losses when there's a 50-50 shot. And that's exactly where we open up on Monday right on the 50-day moving average on the SPY. So let me give you guys some names that I am watching for Monday. Look, if the market does rally, the only stock that really interests me is NVIDIA, right? If you look at NVIDIA, again at the 60-minute channel and you can see here, a massive, massive move up on earnings. Obviously, it was up 33 points on earnings. It was only up down three in change on Friday. If this thing starts getting above this little channel here, I think on the video wakes up, look, if the market's gonna rally, don't you want to be in the strong stock? You don't need a million strong stocks. You just need one that just had really, really good earnings. If the market continues to go lower, I mean, look at a stock like NOW, right? Software name, again, it's approaching, it held its 50-day moving average on Friday. If this thing starts losing the 50-day moving average, look what happens, right? So it's gonna get hit. All you have to do is look at Google, right? You see this light blue line? Google lost a 50-day moving average. Look what happened. You have four days straight selling. So look at NOW, right? This is how important this light blue line is. If NOW closes below this 50-day moving average, yeah, you have 15 points down. That looks really, really good as well. Slower player, right? Slower player for all you guys who like slower stocks, lift the blue up on earnings. And just keep an eye on this bottom channel here. If this thing starts taking its earnings low, you'll have two, three, maybe four, five days of just fades, right? That's usually what happens when you take down the earnings low, the stock will just start to fade. And let me give you guys one more. Let me give you guys one more. Look at Meta, right? Look at Meta, you know, look at Meta. It held the 20-day supply, right? It held the 20-day rise, excuse me, held the 20-day rise in support. If it starts losing their rise in support, man, this thing has a lot of room as well. So that's it, guys. The most important thing is be prepared for both sides. Be conscious to where the markets are. Technical levels are there to save you. They're not there to trick you. They're not there to harm you. The market is not trying to trick you, okay? It's giving you raw data. And whether you're a trader for 15 minutes, 15 months, or 15 years, we're all getting the same data in front of you. It's your job to identify it and understand and embrace it. If you run away from technical analysis, I promise you you'll be a victim of it. Guys, God bless, stay healthy, stay happy. And with God's help, I will see you all on Monday. Take care.