 Welcome to Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 11th of May with me, Patrick Munley. In the US, similar to other nations, much of the focus over the coming week will be upon efforts to track how consumer and business behaviour is responding to reopening plans. This will take the form of far less conventional high-frequency statistics on traffic and payment readings, plus standard notes and media reports. Appearance by Fed Chair Powell will be closely watched on Wednesday, as will a pair of key macroeconomic reports that are the stand out for the week ahead. The main release will be Friday's retail sales and Tuesday's CPI reading. Gas prices were down by about 17% month over month and 33% year over year in April and should weigh on both reports. CPI should reflect not only the 3.2% weight upon gasoline but also brought a weakness in pricing power to take overall inflation down to an estimated 0.4% year over year with core CPI ex food and energy slipping to 1.7% year over year. The dollar index traded higher from the lows that we saw at the symmetry swing support at the 9875 area. We traded higher for most of the week last week as we anticipated. However, we did see a key reversal on Thursday and we got some follow through selling on Friday. Versus Friday's highs, certainly now bears can look to retarget these 9850 on route to this 98 area. If we fail to find support at the 98, then we can look for continuation to the downside to test 9750. Only a close back through Friday's highs would delay these downside targets opening a retest of the descending trend line resistance at the 140 to 166 area. Gold continues to trade in a narrowing range here with a symmetric triangle. The focus really versus Thursday's low is for a breach to the topside to target the 1765 long awaited equality objective. Only a breach really of the 1669 area would delay this upside objective and suggest a deeper correction back down towards the 1630 level first. In Europe, lockdown measures are expected to be eased further this week while restrictions will start to be lowered in France over the coming week as well. For instance, small shops are likely to open. From a data perspective, Germany will release Q1 GDP on Friday, which market watches think will share a quarter-on-quarter fall of about 1.8% with a consensus of 2% across those surveyed. Less than the aggregate Eurozone figure of minus 3.8%. Eurozone March industrial production will release Wednesday, probably slumping by about 10.5% on the month, judging by the French and German numbers, and with an estimate of a particularly severe contraction in Italian industrial output, which will be released on Monday. Technical perspective, Eurodollar, similar to gold trading in a triangle pattern here. We've made a third test of the ascending trendline support. Buyers did step in. We saw a week close on Friday, but whilst we hold Friday's lows, there is now the potential for a grind higher to re-test ascending trendline resistance currently cited at 109.70. If we get through here, then we look for the quality objective at 110.50 as the next upside objective. Do note though that if we fail to hold this ascending trendline support at the 107.70 area, then I'll be looking for a quick re-test of year-state lows at 106.30, and likely then we will be looking at the downside target of 103, which is the quality objective versus this structure here. Looking for a hold of Friday's lows to be the key development for the week to focus on the upside objectives. In the UK, the Office for National Statistics will release official Q1 GDP on Wednesday, which is expected to show a quarter-on-quarter contraction of 3.2%, with the introduction of lockdown resulting in a severe drop in March activity. The breakdown of the March data by sector will be an interesting reading, although with the caveat that there will have been issues in collating the data and they should therefore be treated with more care than usual. That said, we can see 15% declines in industrial and construction output and an 8% fall in services output. More time here, unofficial data includes the British Retail Consortium, April Retail Sales data on Wednesday, and Rick's House Price Survey on Thursday. From a technical perspective, Pound tested down to its ascending trendline resistance. We've got a breach, an intraday breach, but we managed to close back above it and we saw some follow-through on Friday. Closing above the near-term volume weighted average price on Friday suggests that if we can see follow-through buying into the early part of the week that we can see momentum build to the upside, look for a retest of 125.50 on route to the 127.70 objective. Again, however, note, if we do take out Friday's lows and get a close below this ascending trendline support, then I'll be looking for a move back down to 120 before we try and set another base there. In Japan this week, pretty scant in terms of tier one data, all we get really is Japanese March current count balance spiked above 3.16 trillion yen, but in last month's reading markets are expecting that spiking march to be partially unwound. From a technical perspective, the dolly yen is attempting to put in the base here, certainly versus last week's lows at 106. We could see some back-and-filling here and the symmetry swing resistance is cited at 108.30. However, whilst this 108.30 contains any upside attempt this week, then ultimately we still look for the test of the equality objective at 104.80. Finally, in Australia, it's likely that the gig is up for Australia's job market. They're relatively resilient over Q1. Consensus thinks that the country has probably lost about half a million jobs last month, and this will be confirmed with the job status on Wednesday, but the reading will add to a wave of awful job reports that have been sweeping the world most recently. We've seen US and Canada. From a technical perspective, the Australian dollar put in a key reversal on Thursday, and we did see some follow-through to the upside on Friday. Whilst we hold the 64.50 of support, I'm looking for a test of the equality objective at 66.60, and we've also got 78.6% retracement of the crisis decline at the 67 level, like I've said before. Once we get up into this area, with the momentum divergence that's developing, I'll certainly be looking for key reversal patterns here to do something on the short side in the Australian dollar. That concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing 11th May.