 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We have got a UFC pay-per-view match coming up this weekend headline by Sean O'Malley Taking on Marlon Chito Vera and who better to break down that card that Austin Swain We're gonna have Austin on today giving us thoughts on that headline matchup giving us thoughts on top money lines in this Slade props. He's targeting a fan dual sportsbook and much more This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and fan dual research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for a fan dual research Joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain find him on Twitter at a swing three check out his work at Fandal research and also on the heat check where he's gonna give a UFC breakdown both of a betting and DFS Perspective later on today Austin. It is a pleasure to have you on the show. How you doing? I am doing amazing because usually when you and I are talking that means they're pretty big fights go On and just kind of the way UFC is changing their business model UFC 299 and then UFC 300 a big milestone next month These cards are absolutely loaded to the gales with fights that could arguably be made events of the apex cards the littler ones So I mean this this is an absurd fight card. I can't wait to dive in and break you down with you Now I know you're watching like the smaller cards But do you do anything like fun or special for like the bigger cards? Is there like a go-to snack you make for those? You know, how do you live it up in the Swain household for a pay-per-view? Yeah, you're gonna you're gonna make me shed a tear here because what with a old pay-per-view process is early on when I was dating I figured out that my girlfriend who I've been with for four and a half years now Her dad is a huge UFC fan. We just happened to so have that in common, right? I'd always said over there They would go all out with the Domino's deal 699 if you love Domino's they would grab, you know pizzas Anything that you possibly name of mix of salad whatever it was in there. That was the staple now They have since moved eight hours away So we we don't get to reconnect on as many pay-per-views, but occasional still bust out the Domino's just Emily and I live in here But in in general, I like to watch the fights by myself and if I can on silent avoid the commentary It's just like an odd way that I like to process UFC fights no matter how big the card is So that's my own neurotic shortcomings that are causing that I respect that I've been there, too I am embarrassed about the way I behave sometimes a watching sports. So it's more so about that I can be on good behavior for the Super Bowl because you know, it's like, okay Prepare myself like chill out dude like just chill out for a second But like for for other stuff I get it for sure. So Understandable, I like Look at my heart rate during like Daytona races and like it's higher than Denny Hamlin's during the race So I fully understand know where you're coming from And I hope that you would get get some Domino's even just for yourself or even Emily this weekend to celebrate Which should be a pretty fun card. We're gonna break down that card Get Austin thoughts on O'Malley versus Vera and the rest of the card here in just one second But first I mentioned that Austin has a podcast the heat check over on the Fandall research podcast feed There's actually a free play for DFS going on on that podcast week If you want to link to the free play you got to listen to Austin over on that show there To incentivize you to check out a revamp podcast Austin's been doing this way since January We're doing both betting and DFS in the exact same show and the reception has been great So go check out Austin's show this week search for Fandall research podcast wherever you get your podcast Listen to the UFC show later on today and get the link to the free play there So check out Austin's show to get some entered for that free play And I get yourself hopefully some cash for your Fandall DFS account as well This podcast is covering the spread you can find us right here on the Fandall Fandall podcast network search for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcast If you like what you hear leave us a five star rating on Apple podcast or Spotify Broke down EPL Matt week 28 with Austin cast yesterday I also talked NASCAR and Phoenix both that show posted on the covering the spread podcast Along with Fandall YouTube page and Fandall TV plus get buckets for their first bet on Fandall America's number one sportsbook Because right now new customers get one hundred fifty dollars in bonus bets with any winning five dollar bet That's a hundred fifty bucks if your bet wins bet on all your favorite NBA players and teams with quick bets live Same-game parlades exclusive props and more just visit the Fandall app and shoot your shot Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NBA Must be 21 plus in president select states first online real money wager only $10 first deposit acquired Bonus issued is not with trouble bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat See terms at sportsbook dot fandall dot com Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler. What was a fandall dot com slash RNG in Colorado, Iowa, Michigan, New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee, Virginia and Vermont call 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 to an Arizona 188-789-7777 What was the CCP PG dot org slash chat in Connecticut 1-800 9 with an Indiana 1-800 522 4700 visit KS gambling health dot com in Kansas 1-877-770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon Maryland 1-800 gambler dot net in West Virginia 1-800 522 4700 in Wyoming hope this year was a gambling helpline MA org or call 103 to 750 50 For 24 7 support in Massachusetts or call 1-877 open Y or text open Y in New York Now awesome, we're gonna dig into this this card here in just one second Let's start things off here by talking about things on a broader perspective because recently NFL we can sometimes see Inefficient lines during the playoffs high-profile events because it's a lot more casual money in the market What you'd see for a typical card? So I want to ask you what your experience has been When you're trying to find a value from a betting perspective for pay-per-view events relative to what it is for a typical Saturday card Yeah, I mean, I think I echo your sentiment about the NFL with what I see with UFC pay-per-views Where lines tend to move more throughout the week than they do with the apex cards They typically move in what you'd consider to be the public direction and part of that is the fighters that UFC Exclusively leaves for these cards guys like Sean O'Malley who we'll talk about today Ian Gary Israel out of Sonya You know, I've said for years if you want to value bet UFC a lot of times those guys don't end up making your betting card because they just You know, they get steamed up. They look like Superman in some cases. They are undefeated and I get it It's not always the wrong move to bet again or the right move to bet against them, right? Um, but at the same time, you know, that's the bed behavior going to expect That's what we're going to get from public betters casual betters as you said You know, the biggest thing for me on pay-per-views though Why I love them and why my track record I think is a little bit better than the apex ones Is because I get experienced fires, which means I get data and that's something that I really love I got the model 11 of the 14 fights this week. Just last week at the apex that split was three of 12 So I get a lot more data I get a lot more practicality to apply some of the things that I've learned some of the Ratios that I've discovered from from doing this with Vandal for a few years And it to me it gives me an advantage And it only helps that sometimes you do see some of that inflation go the other way But that's much more so how it impacts me specifically So sometimes when we feel more confident about bets, we can sometimes have different allocations towards those bets Do you find yourself having more action on these cards? I know that's kind of like a two-headed thing because it could be like, okay I'm watching more so I want as an entertainment factor to have a bit more out there But do you feel yourself kind of having a different bet allocation when it comes to pay per views as a result of what you just discussed? I think so. I think my betting volume is slightly higher. Like I'm remembering back last month. I think Um, I was about three or four units higher than I would be at a typical apex card Just there typically are more fights on these cards as well So I'm trying to balance that volume with with how much I spring into really it's about my personal confidence in fights I think actually my largest betting volume card this year was at the apex It's just I had specific fights that I felt strongly about You know from this one. I'd say my confidence is pretty average There are a few couple spots you'll dig into that I like But there are also some spots where I kind of have ended up throwing up my hands up And we'll discuss all of those and later on the heat check when I'm going through the entire dfs pool Where you do kind of have to make a stand in daily fantasy, but some of these I'm not super confident in Others though, I'm excited to discuss with you. Well, luckily the main event is one where we know what to expect We know these guys very well. So let's talk about that one. It is Sean O'Malley taking on Cheeto Vera and there's been some movement towards Vera recently because O'Malley was minus 280 last night He is now minus 265. So What's your top-down view of this fight and any value for you at fandwall for this one? Yeah, um, first of all, this is a rematch of a fight that took place in 2020 It was actually an Austin's fight of the night that night that ended up disappointing a bit Sean O'Malley got hurt his leg buckled under him early in the first round and Cheeto Vera ended up getting a tk o victory due to the injury leading to ground to pound So that's how he's getting this shot now that Sean O'Malley is a champion And when I look at how my model forecast Sean O'Malley, you and I were sitting here on this show Against algemene sterling and I said Sean O'Malley's a plus 220 underdog My model's favoring him that is so far off the market. Here's why I think that is and why I'm not really trusting that read I should have he knocked out algemene sterling early in the second round looked in control of the striking and scoring exchanges there Um, and Sean O'Malley's 29 like all the enigmatic personality stuff aside This guy has become an incredibly well-rounded mixed martial arts guy working with my favorite gym at MMA lab I am glad my model looks favorably upon him and it doesn't necessarily even think He's a bad value to win this fight just as a straight pick 60.2 of the time I've got O'Malley winning this fight now That would lead to betting value on cheeto vera because the implied odds not quite lining up with this Minus 265 prop, but I do have a spot where I am higher than the market. It is Sean O'Malley by knockout I've got it 41.1 percent This guy has a massive knockdown rate 1.05 percent and the biggest thing about cheeto vera here He's durable. He's never been knocked out at the UFC level But what I tend to look at is striking defense metrics to see okay A guy has not been wobbled or hurt yet, but is he defending punches appropriately vera at 51 percent That's not very high. So I'm a little concerned for him against a power puncher a sniper like O'Malley Um, I really show value on that I believe the implied odds around 41 gym or somewhere around like plus 140 I want to say in that vicinity something around there plus I I I didn't have the math in front of me, but um, I'm much higher than plus 250 Which is the market you're getting here I think you get a little bit of a skill because vera has never suffered that outcome in UFC But O'Malley is different He's got hands and he's much larger than the last time these guys fought and he was 25 years old and much skinnier So, um, I really like Sean O'Malley by knockout. I like this fight to not go the distance I've got that 65.0 of the time And this fight actually is favored to go the distance slightly. That's following that bantamweight historical trends I do understand that but these guys are finishers. We saw their first fight end in like four minutes and that pace was pretty frantic Um, that I was watching closely in my fight of the night So I really love a a kind of a violence bet does not go the distance and O'Malley's power could be the big difference So right now the odds of O'Malley winning by knockout or tk or plus 250 as you alluded to at fangirl sports book implied odds There are 29% you said you've got closer to 40% So good amount of value there going back to the will the fight go the distance market right now? Yes is minus 118 And no is minus 106 if you're picking between those two bets the O'Malley by knockout or Will the fight go to go the distance with no being minus 106 Preference for you between those two Absolutely I'm going fight not goes the distance because I'm also showing value on cheeto vera inside the distance because of the Win equity discrepancy and the biggest thing you got to remember about O'Malley He's never been five rounds and that three to five round difference in UFC Can be absolutely pivotal when this fight is simply a binary Yes or no goes the distance question If O'Malley doesn't have the cardio and conditioning to go into that fourth fifth round vera ends up surprising from behind I feel much stronger about this fight not going the distance with all the ambiguity there That I do specifically with O'Malley by knockout, but um, I I really like both bets Obviously, I tend to wager smaller amounts on longer shots like plus 250 wagers to win one unit. Yeah Um, I I feel better about the fight to go the distance not going the distance minus 106 If if I had a guess is why the market looks this way It's because of vera's recent decision trends against guys who are not nearly as powerful as Sean O'Malley Okay, so Austin is in on O'Malley versus vera to not go the distance minus 106 and checking out Sean O'Malley By knockout or tko plus 250 at fan dual sportsbook, but as you mentioned, Austin, it's a loaded card It's not just this this uh matchup that we have here a lot of other fun fights here Let's talk about some money lines first. Where else have seen values for as money lines go on this slate Sure. Yeah, and I'm going to talk about a guy that weirdly enough We don't get together and do this every week, but we've talked about him now four times peo'd or yawn I've even talked all you how to say his name right because it's a little different than it looks Said peter I love him here at minus 124 even though my model is not quite there And in when I think conceptually about the value in this fight peo'd or yawn his last three fights Loses a split decision to Sean O'Malley most said he probably deserved loses split decision to algema and sterling Most probably said he deserved and then in his last fight he takes on marabh devolishvili And I I was pretty high on him in that fight What I watched was something that defied what I believed was possible before marabh devolishvili Doubled the takedown attempt record in this division Attempted 49 of them peo'd or yawn never had an opportunity to mount any offense to win this fight. That's 49. Correct Did I hear that right? Yeah, usually guys get tired after about 20 and marabh devolishvili is the energizer bunny It's why I think a lot of people think he'll be the champion in this division by the end of the year I still think peo'd or yawn is a really really great fighter in his prime at 31 He does everything well on paper and he's taking on song yadong here 26 year old From china trains out with team alpha male We just saw him in a main event about I want to say a couple months ago against krisco tiara as further down the rankings He lost the distance striking differential there now Here's a master of sport in boxing and peo'd or yawn excellent 53 striking accuracy Excellent 59 striking defense The biggest thing that bailed yadong out in those fights Previously was his ability to get to his wrestling Well, yawn has an 85 percent takedown defense with the biggest sample. I've ever studied thanks to marabh So, um, I love peo'd or yawn to win this fight. My model has him at minus 115 As far as implied odds But I would be comfortable taking this up to minus 135 myself I did bedded at minus 115 earlier this week and this is a number I will say in some of the close fights in this one I love fandal but maybe shop around because they are they are all over the place across a lot of books I don't know what the reason for that is you might be able to find a better number somewhere Because this fight is just all over the board depending on where you set up shop But I do like peo'd or yawn to win And I think this fight should be way different than apicum It's just recent results where my model is even giving a lot of knockout equity to yadong peo'd or yawn never wobbled Elite striking defense. He's in his office there in the boxing environment This is going to be austin's fire the night and I do like yawn to pervert Emerge kind of in a decision-oriented outcome here Why do you think there is such a discrepancy across books in the way the money line for this fight sets up? Um, you know, I just kind of from studying some specific money splits I think there there are certain customers There are certain books that have been willing to take on more action on this fight as the week has progressed Fandal has kind of followed this action toward yawn when I actually pulled this line on sunday Yawn was minus 146. So it's kind of moved against me It actually hit apicum on tuesday and now yawn is back to minus 124 There's another fight on the prelims gilton. I made a curtain blades It's changed favorites about three or four times on fandal throughout the week So, um, I don't particularly know why these particular fights are moving this way Usually I kind of see fights moving with either against the public or with particular data Both yawn and yadong are pretty accomplished guys But I don't really understand the yadong angle here too much and it makes me wonder am I stepping in it? But um, this line movement has been fascinating and I don't really understand Some of the movement behind it Okay, so as always shop around just kind of good betting principles there Yawn minus 124 right now fandal sportsbook in austin is on board with that one any other money lines you like on this card Um, so we'll move over to the prelims here. This is actually a fight that was scheduled for october There was a fight day illness That took it away, but i'm glad to have it back here in miami yawn cutae lava taken on felipe linds I think it's like the fifth fight up on the card here cutae lava coming back at minus 134 here To me i'm getting a discount because of cuta lava's own tendency to make mistakes in dangerous matchups He's been finished in five of his last eight fights, which you're saying. Oh my god I don't really want to lay minus 134 with that guy But 38 year old felipe linds is a pretty benign matchup all things considered just a 0.57 percent knockdown rate He's only got one at light heavyweight and it was against the guy who was 40 years old So cutae lava's durability. I think will be of be of service here linds has also never attempted a ufc submission Cutae lava has been submitted five times with ufc So the lack of danger here could allow cutae lava's athleticism and more importantly according to my model his activity to win out here Um cutae lava attempts near with 12 significant strikes per minute 4.75 takedowns per 15 with 58 accuracy and Anecdotally is a fight fan when i've watched felipe linds in this light heavyweight tenure He's an improved shape from his time in heavyweight and that's that's worth commending That's an adjustment that I wanted to adjust But then I look at how he's fought he's kind of been pushing against the cage Not very efficient with his own takedowns 35 percent The thing is cutae lava will have the athleticism advantages here that I believe takes that sort of element Away, um, this fight actually under one and a half rounds is significantly favored here So they're expecting sort of a violent outcome on fandall. Um, I'm a little different than that I've got a decision a slight favorite just because these guys no submission danger on the record whatsoever Knockdown rates not as high as you'd think so I actually think this fight will go a little bit longer to me though That does favor cutae lava given his tendency to make mistakes I've got him at minus 150 with a 60 point two percent implied chance to win So I think you're getting good value on this line Yeah, cutae lava is moneyline right now minus 134 if you want to bet that over one and a half rounds That is a plus 112 right now at fandall sportsbook as well So that's a probably could consider for this card any other props stand out to you when you look at the current markets of fandall sportsbook Yeah, so we'll uh, we'll go back up under the main card and look at another guy that you and I have talked about before Gilbert durrino burns. He's taking on jack de la matelina kind of a Title eliminated between guys on the fringe of the top five here at welterweight jack de la matelina undefeated He's looked awesome with ufc thus far. I'm a little surprised this line is steamed so much toward him He's minus 125 on sunday minus 170 here I'm actually looking at the total in this fight of will it go the distance Yes, it's plus 150 and I just don't really understand that perspective when not only you'll get the recent results Um burns but also jack de la matelina burns has gone the distance in four of his last five fights Jack de la matelina has gone the distance in his last two theoretically moving up in competition here So it's harder to finish guys harder to get those explosive moments And when I look at these ingredients just like I look at a cutae laba and lens It's not like they've been unlucky to go the distance. Gilbert burns just 0.5 attempts submission attempts for 15 minutes I think of him as a good submission guy. He hasn't really shown that on paper like that willingness and aggressiveness The one concern here for me would be jack de la matelina's power It is pretty substantial 1.24 percent knockdown rate But finna was got that as the most likely outcome of this fight jack de la matelina by knockout I saw it last at plus 160 Other than that, I don't really see any sort of path to a finish and I trust burns veteran savviness I trust he's modest or ability to this point. He's only been knocked out once and that was by kamaro usman So I love this fight to go the distance My model actually prefers gilbert burns by decision to what matelina's numbers coming back at because it's a little higher than I've got jdm at minus 145 here. So I'm just going to play the fight to go the distance and I My brain thinks jack de la matelina wins it. My model thinks gilbert burns might but I think I'll just cut the middle of the road and take this fight to go off 15 It'll also allow you to just kind of enjoy the match as opposed to rooting for how it ends rooting for the match to Continue gets austin more time watching that match too. So it's a benefit there as well So austin is taking burns versus de la matelina to go the distance that is plus 150 at fan dual sports book Any other props stand out to you across saturday austin? Yeah, I I couldn't not talk about this fight before you and I went through the uh on the prelims So this is another type of fight where I said this would absolutely be like a co-mean event type of fight At the apex, uh, me howl looks she chuck taken on michelle perrera. So I'm setting myself up to fail With the first names being nearly identical here Um, but the thing that I can't ignore in this fight Uh, not only does my brain match my model here when I look at the difference between perrera and olex shea chuck entering this matchup It is phenomenal matchmaking perrera used to fight at welterweight 170 pounds most of his ufc career was there then he took his middle weight Debut in his last fight got a 66 second knockout. That was an impressive result It also came against a significantly below average striker by just about any metric So now he faces olex shea chuck a guy who's more had more grappling issues Just a 48 tape down defense That goes away against perrera's historical tendencies here and the thing to keep in mind about olex shea chuck He had a four and four ufc record at light heavyweight So these guys were successful ufc fighters 35 pounds apart in weight class Olex shea chuck is the significantly bigger guy and the thing that I look toward with him Significantly more power 1.72 knockdown rate That is encroaching that elite rate that you saw with francis and ghanu in his time with ufc davis infigurato in lower weight classes He's got massive power. So I love him by knockout here at plus 260 And it's something that you don't see very often the underdog on the money line here has the most likely individual method of victory That's in line with my model. So I feel great about it. I've got olex shea chuck at plus 195 34.0 And it's coming back at plus 260. So I think a lot of people will look at that outcome say Boy, I don't know if I want to spend shuts a short number on a money line underdog But I think it's because it's such a specific wind path for him and his hammers for polish hands here I love olex shea chuck in this spot. I uh, I did bet the money line because I hadn't had access to props I got that at plus 135. But if you haven't bet this fight yet I would just take the knockout because I don't really think olex shea chuck has much decision equity If the longer it's going the more success perer probably has had with his wrestling He is the larger guy, which could lead to fatigue. I would take the knockout prop here Um in an outcome that I feel extremely strongly about Olex shea chuck on the money line a plus 126 right now fandals sports book But to win by knockout plus 260 I do you find that that dynamic interesting though where you're talking about a fighter is not positioned well to win If it comes to a decision So I think that that dynamic is it's super interesting when you're trying to bet these props Yeah, I really think the reason for that is because of the ambiguity around perera here at middle weight because He had an outcome that was so it was actually favored for him to win by first round knockout in his last fight That's how likely it was going to be. We didn't get the sample of what we wanted to see it Like perera has not been knocked out. I think that's part of the reason why this line is inefficient He has a pretty good striking defense on paper 58 But he's entering a whole new world where you have to remember in ufc wake classes These two wake classes he's changing between are 15 pounds apart The fighters within them on fight night are about 30 to 40 pounds apart when they add back in water Do the weight cutting procedures that is a huge size difference and perera I he I like him in general, but the the power is definitely concerning for me for him in this matchup for me Okay, so looks shea chucked by knockout plus 260 fandals sports book that is where austin is going for that one That's all we got here for it today on this preview of usc 299 But as mentioned make sure to check out austin's heat check preview to get some some more thoughts on the betting angles for this event But also some dfs thoughts and a reminder the url for That ufc dfs free play will be in That show so check out austin's show put that Towards the top of the show if you want to get entered in the free play Over at fandal research check that out search for fandal research podcast and check out the heat check with austin Later on today austin a pleasure to have you on as always enjoy the card enjoy the dominoes I hope and we'll talk to you again soon That sounds good. Jim. I'll see you soon, buddy Alrighty find austin on twitter at a swing 3 i am on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis and check out fandal research on twitter at fandal research next week A lot of college basketball coming up on the show dr. Ed fang is with us on monday nfl free agency is next week too So gonna be a blast have a fantastic weekend. We'll talk to all of you then This has been covering the spread right here on the fan duel podcast network