 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Week 14 is a massive one in the AFC East for the NFL because not only do we have Jets versus Bills We've got two of us Herbert on Sunday night football. We've got Patriots on Monday We'll be talking about that game over on Monday But a big week there trying to decide how that divisional shake out how the FC wildcard Situational shake out we're gonna break down the key games for this week by talking to Ryan Williams getting his read on These games and getting you set for week number 14 This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sonos. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as mentioned by Ryan Williams Checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W. Ryan. We're on to week number 14 the wildcard picture The playoff picture is shaping up. How you doing today? I'm doing good, man It's it's good to be good to be back here with you Yeah, it's getting interesting man. I mean we had some some heartbreaker games there Towards the end. We got teams who are fighting for their playoff chances. We got injuries That are gonna be affecting some teams here in the long run So, you know, this is the time of year that we really get excited for because the window is closing rapidly Yeah, you know, it's week 14 when I am on Wednesday night pumping my fists because my waiver claim for Brock party was successful in a super flex dynasty league You know, that's that's the most week 14 thing that could possibly happen We'll talk about Brock Purdy against Tom Brady where Brock Purdy is a three and a half point of favor because why not? We'll talk about that game We'll talk about some other big ones and get Ryan's best bets for week number 14 But first a reminder to make sure you subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We already have our world cup quarterfinal preview posted talked to Dr. Ed Feng yesterday getting his read on Matchy likes or a bet he likes for the quarterfinals and more Talked about that with Ed also talked to that about his college football numbers in this year and how well they did because he had an awesome year So find that by searching for a covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And you can find that up on the Fandle YouTube page as well Player props show that JJ Zach recently opened it early this week. We'll have that this afternoon actually So we'll be talking about situations a target which one which player prompts JJ is pinpointing as most is not up yet But we'll talk about JJ to get where his situations He is targeting for this week again Fandle YouTube page and the cover in the spread podcast feed with only a handful of Monday night Football games remaining this season Fandle and visa are coming together to make sure the excitement surrounding Monday nights Is that an all-time hot? Introducing Monday night perfect picks presented by visa a free-to-play contest on Fandle That gives you a chance to win a share of $10,000 in cash prizes courtesy of visa. Here's how it works You'll be presented with 10 questions centered around on field action for Monday nights NFL games Fans who answer the most questions correctly will win their share of the $10,000 prize pool. It is that easy The contest is now live. So head to fandle.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks and make your picks before Monday night That's fandle.com slash free slash contest slash visa perfect picks No purchase necessary age and location restrictions apply The void were prohibited C full terms at fandle.com visa and its financial institutions have not sponsored or offered this promotion In any way, let's dig in now to week number 14 and Ryan I think a big thing for me this week before we talk about the individual games is there are a lot of heavy favorites You got the cowboys obviously the 16 and a half point favorites bills and cheese favorite by nine and a half We got big numbers out there and I don't tend to bet these personally because I want my process to be grounded and you know looking at you know How often teams cover big numbers and I don't have a lot of data on that yet because my model is only a couple years old so I get wary about these big lines because I don't have a lot of data to support whether or not a team will actually be able to Cover that But I want to talk to you if you're looking into let's say the cowboys the cheese this week What do you need to see Before you lay the points in a team that effectively needs kind of a blowout to cover the spread Yeah, well for the For the cowboys Texans game. I was curious to see if kyle allen was going to be back Because this man, I mean, you know, he did his thing in in washington for a little bit I guess to a certain extent But I mean it's just brutal to watch that offense right now They put they're putting back davis mills in I believe this is what I read and that that's what that's what you want to see I mean, you know, you're hoping he can get back that rapport with nico collins and in some of the other pieces They are hopefully damian pierce is able to get going a little bit And that's what kind of worries me about that line is that's probably set more to the kyle allen realm This team is the Texans that is they've only lost by a number this large One time this year. I believe that was to the raiders earlier on in the season when they started this however many game losing streak that they're on Um, so that that makes me a little bit weary and then with the chief side of things I'd be willing to take a number of them of this magnitude if they were at home, but you know, the vision will match up Um, it's on the road there in mile high things could just get weird Um, you know, it's a game where I like the under probably more than I like a chief spread by nine and a half close to 10 So, you know really at this time of the season I'm kind of just looking at those positions now, you know, uh, we got The the cowboys aren't home at least and I mean the thing about this houston team when it's davis mills or not Is that you know, they they can turn the ball over and so that we know that the that dallas is an opportunity opportunistic defense But that being said, you know, they could maybe trevon's taken a chance and then nico is able to get away from one You know, they were they were able to keep it kind of close in contention there Uh in the first half against cleveland and then things kind of got away from them on fluky stuff So but these numbers they just feel weird at this time of year where i'm just willing to maybe look at unders instead of the spreads And let that ride Yeah, I think a lot of me when i'm looking at these games depends on what a team does when they're ahead for a team like The bills specifically now this will not pertain to the jets game because I don't think that game will get out of hand but um The bills specifically they keep their foot on the gas they Are pushing for all four quarters. We've got a large sample on them doing this So they're one component of this with the cheese couple used to go against the rams. They um They kind of just like messed around I don't know they seemed like they were lolly gagging for a lot of that game. They didn't cover Uh, at least the opening number. Um, I think it got to around 15 or so Which is what that number one of being at but like That is interesting. So i'm not sure You know what out of you that one with the cowboys you mentioned like the chaos of their defense That's accurate and like that's part of why I would broadly be receptive to laying a big number with them Because I know that they can create chaos as we saw in that cold scheme They can generate scores of their defense if they decide to go run heavy late in the game They're run blocking kicks but so they could still run at the score despite being run heavy late So I think the cowboys I'd be receptive to it now I've not Bet this my numbers have uh my traditional model as a cowboy sir by 17.8 Huge number there and my newer model has them favored by 19 points So in general 16 and a half should be like enough, but like I said, I don't have a deep enough like Like back testing well to to test to test these big numbers Somebody uses a data point, you know to to strengthen my model to to try to find How she did this later on so I've not bet it but you know I think that probably the cowboys are the kind of team I'd be okay doing it because the chaos on defense Because they just are kick butt in the run game. I think that would be make that would make me more receptive to it Now I mentioned Ryan. I don't think the bills would be in coast mode this week Let's talk about that game. We got the jets at the bills 9 and a half point spread total is 43 and a half and the jets actually did win this first meeting They have since made a change of quarterback So 9 and a half kind of a big number what you're seeing in this game Yeah, I think that the bills are on a mission, right? They're seeing the the writing on the wall here of that they you know can still control their own destiny as it relates to to the afc standings and you know, this is a team where The public's going to be watching and seeing do the bills have what it takes to really be that super bowl favorite that They were at the beginning of the year nine and a half does feel like a big number. There's jets defense. I mean the secondary is incredible Garrett wilson has been playing otherworldly. Mike white is you know, the jet savior is that wilson's pretty much on his way out Um, but you know the bills are at home We are getting into december and I know the jets play on the east coast too But I just feel like there's time of year this when the bills buckle down They're getting healthier on defense. Definitely love to see that So it's just like they have the offensive firepower to put any team away Um, you know, maybe there's some maybe there's some emotions riding high from that loss earlier this year when they kind of Let one get away and they and we've seen that for them the past couple of years Of them letting one get away, but they're at home. The crowd's going to be rocking I'm willing to lay the nine and a half here with with buffalo It doesn't feel all all that great because you know, the jets can kind of stay in in game The way that they're coached and you know, shout out shout out to the coaching staff in the regime But just the way that buffalo Is geared up and you know, definitely the way that they showed that they could take it to a team in the division on Thursday night football last week on the road in new england I think they're just riding off of that and i'm willing to lay the nine and a half year Yeah, I did bet the jets plus nine and a half Um, I think that one thing that goes in your favor here is there is rain in the forecast on thursday And in the past that would have worried me with the bills because their ground game Was pretty bad. It's looked a lot better recently. They're going to a lot more heavy personnel James cooked looked really good in that game back on thursday night Now you get that kind of like mini buy to get a rookie ramped up a bit more I think that's encouraging for him So I think that the bills may be better able to handle the elements now than they would have been previously With james cook looking good With their personnel. I think they're finding a groove there as well. So I think that that could help them there um The reason I wanted to take in the jets is everything you mentioned the defense specifically My numbers my um, my new model has the jets first in the defense power rankings in the entire league The bills are very high still in defense But you take von miller out of the equation Not quite as high there. Like I said, they're getting healthier elsewhere beyond von miller. So that's definitely a good thing for them, but I just like the jets keep this thing close and I've talked about this tuesday But I did not bump up their offense for mike white being in there because it's mike white and I don't want to You know overreact to a two game sample one game Which he played pretty poorly against the vikings another game which he you know played a bear's I'm not going to poop on the bear's right a game Which he played basically the bear's second string defense because everyone is out Um, like that's that's tough to like make a bump up based on that So I do not have an adjustment in there for mike white It is a bump down for their rushing offense with no breeze hall so Even when I do all that stuff My baseline model has the bills by 7.37 My other model which likes the jets a bit more is actually closer to like five. I think that's a bit too short But uh with both numbers pointing the same way. I am taking the plus nine and a half Despite the fact it is It makes me kind of want to vomit betting on mike white for the third consecutive week, but like here we are Does does the does the juju run out at some point? Well ran out last week. So yeah, I think it already did just like how did I get here? How am I betting on like I didn't when I placed the the bear's bet It was still up in the air who would start but I honestly didn't care because I was like, you know You know, I didn't think the yields is going to play So like whatever I'll bet this and I want to be mike white last we got new full well It'd be mike white. I still bet it. Um, they almost won. They probably should have won, but they should have here we are Yep Oh, man, that's funny. Yeah. Oh well, we'll see how that goes. So what could go wrong betting mike white three consecutive games Let's move now out west and talk about tom brady versus brock perty. It's the bucks at the 49ers 49ers are three and a half point favorites here a total is 37 and a half and This is our first game scene brock perty as a starter. So I want to know for you How much does putting perty in there shift your view of the 49ers specifically against a pretty solid bucks defense Yeah, I mean This is just and I'll let you wax poetic jim because you do so well on it But this is just one of those lines that you just got it. They got to talk me into what's going on here You know and that you know, I think I ragged down vegas Maybe it was last week or a couple weeks ago and that that always will come back to hancha as a better So I apologize to the vegas powers that be but this is one that just it really You know, and I get for Tampa Bay struggles this year and just always having to find themselves in Situations where it's coming down to a last, you know It drive that brady needs to put something together in order to win them the game. This is on the road there But I I just feel like jimmy garoppolo being out, you know, during the game I felt like the team kind of rallied behind brock and gave him the the energy and juice that they needed and they were kind of Taking it to the dolphins pretty handedly there I'm from a defense side of things But you know, this this bucks v if they can get it together with the guys who are out there Catch this football. I mean julio seeing somewhat of a resurgence Brady seems to trust him a little bit godwind, you know, we'll see if evans can finally get going here I know how this team looks on paper, but I do feel like at some point You know, this is a team that I'm not willing to trust with jimmy g When they're favored by heavier than three because they they find ways to they find ways to blow it You know more often than not under the shanahan regime and now we got a tom brady team You know this bucks defense like you're talking about like they do exactly what you would want against a 49ers offense They're great against the run and they're going to force you to pass to weapons that you know are not Fully healthy debo. I don't think is still fully healthy And they got this guy and brock purdy who might have his hands full And if that we do get some Opportunistic opportunities for the defense as we're talking about here This could be a long day for for the 49ers just to get something going Which is why i'm willing to take the three and a half because especially in these closer games I feel like this number for for brady here at you know getting three and a half points. Why not? I think that i'm on the same side as you for this one because it like i'm not a big jimmy g guy I hate Like I like numbers I hate that the numbers people people who I respect a lot tend to like like jimmy geolux I'm like you're kind of like let's pedal it back a bit like If you watch this happen, you kind of know that he can combust in in certain situations with that said He is a very efficient quarterback and that's undisputable and it almost seems like disrespectful to garoppolo that this line is three and a half because like It's it seems like we're discounting what he does to make this and again I'm not a huge jimmy g guy, but like he does a lot to maximize a talent in this offense He doesn't like raise the talent this offense, but he allows it to live up to its ceiling So my numbers have the 49ers by 2.4 and then by 1.7 depending on the model So both these show value in the box I was hoping it might get to four It did feel like a blip a very quick second on tuesday I believe very quick where it flashed a four put them back to three and a half If we got to a push on four i'd be it, but It's minus 118 on the plus three and a half Which means it's more likely to get to three than it is to back to four That to me says I missed the boat by not getting that four when it was posted very briefly So i'm probably gonna stay away and i'm okay with that honestly like I think that the bucks are undervalued here But there's no tristan werff so it's no tristan werffs against a very good defensive line The nickbosa did miss practice wednesday So i'm on the same side as you where I think the bucks are undervalued here I think I didn't get in when I could have potentially to to bet them But I do think that this is Again almost disrespectful to garoppolo that we're viewing the 49ers At absolutely jim I I couldn't I couldn't agree more and the the public ironically is is feeling the way Against them. They're they're feeling the 49ers side. So I mean, yeah Maybe maybe there's something to it that we don't know that that the bugs are are dealing with behind there I mean, I will say this offensive line has got to figure out some stuff and get it together Because that that is really probably the the scary thing for taking the buck side Is this front seven is not going to play games with the 49ers? So uh smith and the rest of these guys on offensive line have got to make sure they're sure it up because If brady's hitting the ground, um, he you know, we might see another outburst on the sidelines for him for the second Week in a row. Yeah, the 49ers defense bunch of psychopaths like that's what they are. They're just they're nuts Okay, let's move on to the sunday night game. It's two of versus herbert I don't want to pitch it that way, but everyone else is so why not let's look into it See dolphins minus three and a half it was three it shifted to three and a half Total is 51 and a half the chargers. I don't need this game to stay in uh playoff contention in the asc Can they actually show some life here and do that against the dolphins or the dolphins keep on rolling? yeah, so This this is one to the miami's miami still on the west coast. Um, you know for the second straight week The offense is kind of Petered out a little bit. I mean to you know to a came back down to earth and against a strong 49ers defense now, you know the chargers what they really do well is stop the pass They have trouble stopping the run and we know miami We thought that they were going to be a more run heavy team to start this year with mc daniel and all the things Coming in with this regime, but they love to pass and so this is one where you know I love the over of 51 and a half because points are going to need to be had in this game I feel like for miami to win and anytime miami, you know anytime the team that the chargers are playing against Can take a lead. We know what the chargers do and that's absolutely abandoned the run And they're just running short passes and trying to get their weapons to the ball I think mike williams is is geared back to come Play in this game. We love that keenon ellen's been healthy. He's been a huge huge help to this offense Josh palmer has been Magnificent and eklers should be able to get going here too. The chargers getting three and a half at home It's just one i'm gonna take every time. I talk about this with herbert all the time If he you know needed to be three or whatever and it's the last minute field goal for the dolphins so be it But herbert is always just finding a way to stay in these games and especially knowing that they need to win I mean staley is going to be going for it pretty much on every four I don't know if the chargers punt in this game if it really comes down to it because I might not need to buy It might not get to four down. Right might not even get to four down So love that. I mean, there is some opportunity there. I think even on the money line at plus 150 That i'm interested in but when we're looking at public money jim and and talking about it from that standpoint I mean people love the dolphin 68 of the bets coming in on the dolphins minus three 57 Money, um, and I'll just you know, I'll just let that be what it is and fade the public on this one Yeah, I think that this is one of those spots where I I created the sentiment You were saying where you almost prefer the chargers as underdogs and it's it's because They can't play their their stupid stupid stupid offense where it's like these little bunny targets like I I wish they were like just tell jill and barney that it's fourth and 12 every play just tell him like Hey, it's fourth and 12. Hey, I pretty sure we just got the ball. No, joe. Sorry. It's fourth and 12 Let's hurry. We're also down 15 Like I want them to be in that kind of scramble mode because they can play well in that scenario Which means if they fall behind they can claw the way back in the mike williams thing is important too Because my numbers have the dolphins by 4.5 in this game But that is assuming mike williams out but he did practice on wednesday They haven't had a lot of overlap between mike williams and keenan allen this year If keenan allen gets ruled in like if he is taken off the injured report by sunday Then I wouldn't be shocked if I'm not going to show value in the chargers side But I will no longer show value on the dolphins I know that so even though my numbers show value in the doll the in the dolphins right now I'm not betting that because I do agree anecdotally where I want the chargers in scramble mode I'm assuming I think there's a chance keenan or mike williams gets ruled in and when that happens that'll shift things the other direction so I think that I just want to see the chargers in scramble mode That's like my like my christmas wish is seeing them in scramble at all times Let's get them an offense that allows them to do that not just in the fourth quarter not just on fourth and 12 I I desperately want that for sure, but I think it'll be a fun game either way. I think that uh It should be good one Hopefully turn arms as they able to play for the dolphins too We'll see how that transpires the week goes along though. What are the bets you see in across week 14 ryan? all right, so let's look at these other bets so This is detroit minnesota game jim We knew I talk about detroit every week if This is going for me. I am I am going to take the over in this game at 52 and a half And just from the sole reason of what the numbers are showing us For the detroit lions all season playing at home. I mean these games have been absolutely bananas So I expect a ton of points to be scored in bunches here I mean dalvin cook, you know on the one side he should be able to get going We got justin jefferson. We got almanra same brown. We got james and williams potentially don't miss dj. Charke man Don't disrespect my guy dj. Charke. Yes Mr. 90 dj. Charke and damian vanity last week. It was only 52. I did exaggerate Fair enough fair enough, but yeah, he paid off for you. Um No, this one is a tough one for me on the line because the they're getting the lions are just so Steamed up by the public and where the bets are coming in and it's two and a half And and the vikings have been the most luckiest team in All of the nfl I mean the games that they are winning like even the juts game last week like they really should have lost that game They had the lead and then yeah, we're trying to give them every chance to come back into that game Plus two and a half here. It's a divisional game where things could happen So i'm just hoping that those weird things happen and lead to point scored I'm going to take the 52 and a half there Would not shock me though if the vikings are able to upset the public By getting two and a half points there. What they're plus 120 on the money line not that great The other game that i'm looking at there is cincinati at home against cleveland cincinati is six and a half point favorites Plus 100 on the fan duel sportsbook for that money. I do like that. This is a revenge game narrative I mean the skevin's the fanski and the cleveland browns have really like been able to I don't know what it is when they play the bingles, but they play up and that that october 31st game What has to be a sour taste in the bingles mouth, especially the way that they hit their stride Right now in the season coming off a big win against the chiefs Like this team is going to be rockin ready to roll full throttle the cleveland You know cleveland's got to show me something even with the new quarterback that they Here it took them three non-offensive scores to be able to put away houston. That's right three non-offensive scores to be able to put away the one in ten houston taxons So, you know that even with the six and a half close to seven points spread Like i'm just willing to take cincinati at face value there Not too much else that i'm that i'm seeing from the side I will say the other game that i probably will have a little bit of interest in is the jackson bill in tennessee game uh jackson bill getting three points there, you know, why not? You know, definitely talk about variable and them being at home But like again defensive wise the one thing that the jackson bill jaguars can do or do well is stopping the run So if we're able to contain darik henry, I know treylon berks is on is on the injury report I'm not sure what his status is but this offense really petered out against the eagles When he left the game last week, so if he's unable to go I just don't have faith in this offense enough to be able to put a team away now again on the other side We need to see trevor lorenz's status as well too. I know he left that game You might know more about his status and what that's looking like But if lorenz is playing that i'm willing to get this three and a half number and maybe it shifts If we do get him officially rolled in so that's why I might take a chance early on jackson bill right now I've got the jack's money line. So I uh, I panicked a bit when they said he's missing practice wednesday, and I was like, uh, oh I think I made a mistake and I talked Tuesday about how like I wanted to bet the over on the total If it got down below 42 and a half it is now 41 and a half uh with the over of minus 105 I have not taken that yet because of lorenz if lorenz gets ruled in I will take that so We're on the same side there like you mentioned The jags can stop the run The titans defense. I think is a bit overrated personally. I don't know Especially against the past so I agree Jags are the way to be here if we get confirmation lorenz will go if he practices in a limited fashion thursday, I'd fire We saw some movement back towards the jags overnight and then went back It was 172 then 166 then 168 now. So it's been holding pretty steady, but I think the over is in play here and I do like the jags. So Once again, we are back on the trevor lorenz train. Luckily it was not there last week So that was good, but we'll see if we can uh, but on the fighting jags once again this week That is ryan williams want to thank you once again ryan for swinging by For today back with us on monday to talk about cardinals versus patriots, but until then have a fantastic weekend We'll talk to you again on monday. Yes. It's week 14 guys. So make sure you're taking advantage Get these bets in we only got a couple weeks left until the best time of the year post season football But jim, it's always have i'm always happy to be back here with you brother. So we'll see you next time I'm looking forward to it. Check out ryan on twitter at ryan Alexander underscore w I'm on twitter at jim sonnis make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread to get these podcasts As they go live as i mentioned jay jzak arison coming up later on today to talk about some player prop situations He is targeting for this week that'll be up on the fandall youtube page and the covering the spread podcast v But we'll talk to you all soon. Good luck in week 14 This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network