 Hey everyone, this is Mike Kramer of Mock Capital checking in today is Monday November 20th, and it's around six o'clock New York time. So tomorrow we'll be getting a slew of economic data Which includes the FOMC minutes at 2 o'clock, and this is unusual We don't normally get them on a Tuesday afternoon. Normally we would get them on a Wednesday But given that this week we also have the Thanksgiving Day holiday markets will be closed on Thursday and a half day on Friday I guess the Fed thought it was best to put them out on Wednesday We'll also be getting things like initial jobless claims a day early as well Those will be coming on Wednesday morning. So when we think about what the Fed minutes are likely to say It's probably not going to be much that we haven't heard at least from Jay Powell over the last couple of weeks I would think that he'll continue to the minutes will continue to reflect the Fed That's carefully watching the long end of the curve carefully watching financial conditions Also, obviously open-minded to the idea that the economy may be slowing at the balance of risks are coming back into alignment And then probably also a message again that centers around this need to keep rates higher for longer which sufficiently restricted policy needed for some time and I think as long as that message is pretty much on par I don't know that we're going to get much of a change in rates We've seen the two-year yield now starting to really trend lower That's the one thing that is noticeable You can clearly see that the two-year has been trending lower on the RSI and really until the two-year falls below 483 that seems like the floor and it certainly with the upside to around 5 to 505 again This just seems like the range at this point until we get something to move Below 483. I think we have to figure that we're just going to continue to stay around this 490 to 495 region And we'll look at the 10-year again, not much has really changed there We have dip below the 450 region and what's more important is that a couple of times now This is acted as resistance and so we're going to want to watch this We can currently see that momentum has shifted lower and our next big level of support probably come somewhere Around the 435 region with 450 still acting as our resistance level when we swing over to the dollar We can see again that the euro has strengthened pretty materially against the dollar We're still in this overbought position right now Which suggests we're probably still in an area where we could see the euro pause for a day or two Certainly when we look at the euro from a standpoint of where it is right now We can certainly see that this is an area that could act as Resistance around this 109 and a half region with the next level up not to around one at 110 90 or so What's also important to realize right now is That the euro obviously had a very big decline and right now it appears we're just in a retracement phase with just Just about a sixty one point eight percent retracement off the low. So this at this point looks like a pretty typical Decline and rally back for the euro it doesn't seem to be anything out of ordinary and again If we were to see the euro pause this seems like the area to do that Obviously if you get minutes or that come out of the Fed that are more hawkish than expected or reflect something that hasn't already been said There's obviously the risk that the euro fails up at this region and starts to move back down towards this 10850 area when we swing over to the pound. It's very much a similar look for it with the pound Again kind of getting up near this upper end of the Bollinger band suggesting we're in sort of a pause area Which has been the case now for a couple of days. There's also some strong resistance here around this 125 area Also, we can look at the pound and see that we're right above the thirty eight point two percent retracement area So again, this is an area where we're looking for resistance to continue to hold You can see the RSI is clearly pointing higher momentum is higher But I think we're probably still in a phase where we're gonna get some more consolidation here Before maybe there's a chance that we get another move up towards 12630 likewise the downside risks right now or to around 12370 or so we'll look at the US dollar versus the Japanese yen You can see that this is certainly starting to show some signs of weakening Expectations are starting to build that perhaps the BOJ is gonna start to do something We can clearly see that momentum has rolled over right now and while it's not oversold at this point It is touching the lower Bollinger band than it is right now hitting up against Support around 14810. We really need to see the yen break this 14810 area That would result in a move down to around 14630 Likewise upside is probably limited right now to around 151 and a quarter at least based on where rates are I think it's pretty hard for the yen to move above these previous highs When we take a look at the Nasdaq we can see that clearly the Nasdaq has seen momentum shift higher with the RSI Pushing above 70 so it's reversed this trend of lower highs in the Nasdaq So far although if we look really closely you can see the high here was 76.25 The high here was 78.6. The high thus far is 72.1 so one could argue that the Nasdaq even though it made a new high today It has not made a higher high and that could be something to worth be worth noting that perhaps if we see this Nasdaq Put in a high here. It could suggest that perhaps there's a bigger turn coming, but right now We're at resistance at 16,000 you can see that the Bollinger band We can actually move up to around 16 to and this resistance level goes back now to This period in time here in January of 22 and then you have to go back all the way to January 4th of 22 to find the next level of Resistance at 16,500 or so. So this is a pretty big level here for the Nasdaq It really had a very strong move off of this low We can see if we go back we can see there was this big trend line here another trend line here We basically gapped right over this trend line and we were able to power up to a new high here Versus July so this has been a really impressive rally, but we've seen these types of moves before with You know a rally that we saw that was similar if we go back to this You know August rally, but really the rally this reminds me to the most is this rally in March where we had just successive days of Green bars up with just one or two red bars in between and then this rally in here back in October of 21 had a very big rally So this happened to mark the top of the market this happened to mark a turning point in March again of 22 So again, this is you know, I think this market is still very very slippery And when you see markets when you see big moves like this I think you have to be a little careful still and and have a little bit of caution Because markets like these are very unstable and we've seen in the past that big moves up like this on unstable ground driven by mostly Gamma positioning can be very unstable When we look at the Dow, it also has had a very big move higher again This looks familiar to the type of move we had back in July when we were up something like 13 or 14 days in a row This one we're certainly not up in a row that many days But you can see not many very not many red bars here. You can also see the RSI touching up a bunch above 70 You can see there's still a little bit more room here. Maybe thirty five thousand five hundred and fifty to get to the upside Also, we can see that there's this big trend line here Now it'll be interesting to see if the Dow gets back to and touches this trend line up here at thirty five thousand seven hundred Certainly, this would be a key level of resistance at thirty five thousand six hundred because that would take us back to levels that again Would go back to February at twenty two. So this is an important area for the Dow To see if we can really clear this obviously lots of gaps to fill to the lower lower side of this thing And again, we've seen big moves like these before Back here. We saw it in October in March of twenty three. We had a big drawdown We saw it again here in July with a big drawdown So again big move up don't always necessarily mean that you just continue to power higher very similar sort of thing happened actually in October of twenty two and Again, we'll just have to keep an eye on it and right now your next level of resistance doesn't come to around You know, like we talked about this the upper under the Bollinger band around this thirty five thousand five hundred region and Outside of that. That's all we have. I hope you have a great Rest of your week if I don't talk to you till next bye