 We have got storylines galore tonight in MLB DFS because we have Walker Bula facing them That's trying to make Steve Coe and tweet once again We have got Chris sale making his second start off the Angel is Robbie Ray facing a pretty good Tigers team in Some really solid offenses in good spots for tonight. So our job is to prioritize Prioritize prioritize dissect the news dissect the data and decide Which of these expensive options? We want to use for tonight because it's tough man trying to decide where we want to go for MLB DFS for tonight But despite the difficulty of that task We'll try to do that right here to get you said for a Friday night sleigh Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire dot com My name is Jim Sonis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire dot com here to break down third or Fridays 14 game main slate with lock set for 705 for tonight now Quick disclaimer. I'm recording this on Thursday night. Usually it's on Friday morning. I'm doing Thursday night So if anything changes overnight my apologies to all of you Tom Vecchio Well the Q&A today at 4 p.m. So hit him up with any questions You may have if things change something like that if there is some bad weather because I can't look at that right now As of the night before so tune into Tom 4 p.m. Eastern YouTube, Twitch Facebook and Twitter Tom We'll also have the solo shot and the Q&A on Monday of next week I am heading to the WFBC the World Fantasy Baseball Championship in Denver this weekend So if you're there come by say hi, I'll be emceeing on Saturday I'll be at the Rockies Diamondbacks game tonight and also at the fan dual fan fest on Sunday that is in Power Field in Denver. So if you were in the Denver area want to Go to a free Sports betting fan fest with some fun festivities. I'll be doing a panel talking week one and a felon talking more stuff there We're gonna have I think there's a chain smokers content or our Concert why not I've got DFS in the mind So if you're in the Denver area get a rocky stick at night Swing by on Sunday as well and come say hi was love to chat with anyone Who listens resents the show whatever it may be more than happy to discuss that with you But again disclaimer. I'm recording this early. It is Thursday nights if anything changes I apologize, but check in with Tom 4 p.m. Today to get his updated thoughts also a lot of stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed despite the fact that I'm In the air potentially right now either way we have an ask our podcast. It'll be on YouTube at 10 30 It's already on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed right now You can find that by searching for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed also the USC podcast via Austin swim Coming up should be posted listening a Friday morning. That should be up as by now as well Find that there search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed listen to Austin listen to our nascar podcast as well And then hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Hey soccer fans this season Fan dueling captain Morgan are teaming up to give you a one-of-a-kind soccer contest introducing captain Morgan's soccer pick Um a weekly fantasy contest that is entirely free to play the contest is simple All you do is make quick predictions for Saturday games this soccer season You will earn points for each correct pick and compete for a chance to win up to $3,000 in prizes every single week head over to fan duel and enter the captain Morgan's soccer pick of today must be 21 plus to participate for more details as a fandal.com or download the fandal fantasy app Eligibility restrictions apply and don't forget to make your game day more delicious and sub in the captain Pitching preview for this Friday main slate Walker Mueller is the highest salary picture on fandal checking in at eleven thousand six hundred dollars We have Chris sail at ten seven Robbie Ray is ten five Lucas G. Lino comes in at $9,800 Blake Snell is nine thousand We have Max Freed Lance McCullors Sonny Gray James Caprell Ian you say kukuchi and Alex What is the other is eight thousand dollars or higher? Now looking at the slate for today and looking at the stack specifically There are a lot of really good teams that I want to stack and that's fun because I feel more confident stacking good teams than bad ones the issue is that When you're stacking a good team's a good team you got to pay the piper And if I want to pay the piper it makes it tougher to Spend up a pitch or two So Bueller at eleven six if I could have no strings attached I would take you are there for sure, but it's a repeat match. It just fits the Mets last week really high salary I think I'm kind of okay taking the discount here and being high on both sail and Robbie Ray And I think it's night where salary does matter a lot and I like all three pretty equally So give me those two first Ray is likely the easier sell between the two So let's start there. He says the Tigers and it is a tough matchup They're a very good team against lefties, but it's also also a high strikeout matchup They have a 25% strikeout rate versus lefties that is tied for the highest mark on the slate And we know Ray can take advantage of a high strikeout rate The velocity in this forcing basketball has been down a bit over his past 11 starts But it hasn't mattered the strikeout rate for Robbie Ray in that time is still 28 percent He has a 2.2 80 array now the array is good Despite some tough matchups in there He faced Boston three times and a four start stretch another really good team against lefties He let up four runs in one of those starts, but allowed just one Combine run in the other two games. He said double-digit strikeouts twice in this 11 start sample I think that he has that same ceiling once again tonight. Now Ray could get rock He still lets apart contact the red the Tigers are very good So there are downsides, but I am fine Focusing on upside in a 14 game slate if you want to take down a tournament on a 14 game slate You need a lot of points. We can't focus on floor which focus on ceiling Robbie Ray has that ceiling So to me Robbie Ray is a fine selection number one I will say that all three of Ray sail and Bueller and the same tier for me But I'm comfortable if I had to rank them putting Robbie Ray number one Sales probably a tougher sell for most of you because it is just his second game off Tommy John surgery He went just five innings in his first star and we don't know how much length he has in his tank But he looked so good. I am willing to roll the dice here exclusively in tournaments on Chris sale Let's start with the length discussion on sale think that is the first thing we should talk about He went 89 pitches in his first hour back That's after he went 89 in his final rehab started triple a and reportedly based on some beat reporters for that team His pitch limit there was 90 So if his pitch limit was 90 in his final rehab start, why did he go 89 in his debut? I think it may have been situational because you go back to that game He fits the fifth inning there in the next half ending the Red Sox scored like 97 runs They were at 14 to 2 the next time sale would have been out in the mound So why would you put your picture coming off Tommy John back out there 89 pitches if you have 14 to 2? He might have been done anyway But I don't think there's some sort of hard cap here where he was definitely done right when he got to 90 I think there's at least the potential for him to go deeper in games and Man, did he look good? He didn't throw a slider as much which you know makes sense coming off Tommy John Which could be an issue long-term at some point for sale But despite the lower slider usage he still had an 18 percent swing and strike rate it came against the Orioles They are a better team versus lefties and righties There's not a great team, but they're also not the worst and they're a better team against lefties in the Rangers who is What sale will phase tonight? They have a 76 WRC plus versus lefties. They have a 123 iso They don't draw that many walks So I think the walk thing is actually key because we're not going to see sale messing around He's probably not going to be there on a lot of balls. That could mean that the pitch count matters have been last I'm not sure if he'll duplicate what he did against the Orioles. That's tough He could flop and it's a definite risk here, but again, it's a risk I am good with in this situation. So I will rank sale number second Bueller third But again, they're all in the same tier So if you like Walker Bueller most don't want to deal with raise bad bad at ball data Don't want to deal with sales potential pitch pitch counting concerns. I will not push back I think they're in the same tier. I just really like the savings we get from those two So to me, it's ray one sale to Bueller three in that top tier But all three really really fun for tonight as far as the value play goes I like both max read and Lance McCullors I'm gonna give the edge to McCullors, but if you love freed I can see why based on what he's been doing recently I get it McCullors is at home against the Mariners and it's not the world's best matchup, but similar to ray, it's a high strikeout matchup They're actually the team tied with the Tigers for the highest strikeout rate on the slate That comes with a 92 WRC plus so below average worse than the Tigers and McCullors gets plenty of strikeouts himself He's going back to using a slider heavily over his past 10 starts in that time McCullors has a 29 percent strikeout rate and he has good bad at ball data too He's allowed a 34 hard hit rates with a 29 percent fly ball rate There are no length concerns with McCullors unlike with Chris sale because he has gone 180 or more pitches in three of his past four starts Dusty Baker don't care and I love it. He's not broken yet. So that's promising for sure The one issue is that McCullors needs all those pitches I'm talking about sale, you know the low strikeout rate with the rangers may not matter his pitch count He may be super efficient I don't expect efficiency from McCullors because Despite the fact that he has that length. He's still walking too many guys So even with the high pitch count, he's still gone six innings in just half of those 10 starts He did get to seven twice But efficiency not the forte from the colors I do still like him a lot. He faced Seattle in Seattle back on july 27th He had eight strikeouts and six innings there and if you get that for 8,500 dollars I'll take it for sure So even with the good studs with the three studs we talked about before I still think that McCullors is worthy of tournament exposure for tonight So I'll still get there for sure, but he is behind all three of ray sale and builer Uh, McCullors an option if I don't get to free that's okay, but I wouldn't mind getting there either So some really good options in the pitching in several tiers for tonight's slate As far as the stacking goes if you're a long time regular solo shot listener, you know I usually go three stacks. It is very tough to pick three. There are four I like for tonight. So I'm not gonna it's my friday got some extra time here talking to you on a thursday So why not let's go through all four stacks here And I think they are all good enough to justify breaking the rules that starts at course field We can't go a little more rapid fire here But uh, the first one is a course field where I'll be tonight looking forward to that The rocky is facing tyler gilbert who is coming off a new hitter. So It's a super impressive performance. You can never take that away. He's in the record books and Maybe a donkey move to stack against him But he's still a guy. I think we do want to stack against especially at course field in that no hitter Gilbert had just five strikeouts and nine innings He led up 10 hard hit balls. So an exit velocity of 95 plus miles per hour And those 10 hard hit balls were on 20 balls in place. So half of the balls in play were well struck They weren't on the ground either that might be One of the most improbable no hitters of all time not like Pregame expectation, but based on like the batter balls he led up You don't expect no hitter in that scenario and it's in line with his mind only data too because Gilbert down there had a 23 strikeout rate his fly ball rate was 39 percent. So If you extrapolate that to the majors you would expect pretty middling numbers in the big leagues The peripherals were on par with that in the no hitter. It's not the results So I think the Rockies make a lot of sense despite the fact they're facing a guy who did just throw a no hitter last week So I love the Rockies here Specifically the mid-range my goal and going through the facts we do identify Guys you can use with sale and ray in order to hopefully get to the studs on their teams and here It's the mid-range brendan rogers 3300 lias ds 31 connor joe still under sourded at 3600 dollars And if garret hamson starts you could stack Rogers ds joe and hamson and make that work pretty easily with sale or ray and even bueller too So I think the Rockies very good on a slate even when we want to pay up at pitcher I'm gonna put the Yankees second on this list They're all also facing a fresh face. Uh, just this one is not throwing a no hitter That guy is charlie barns and like gilbert's not a big strikeout guy in triple a he had a 20 percent strikeout right there It is 12 percent in his early big league action And if you're gonna have a 12 percent strikeout right, you gotta kill a lot of worms to cancel that out He had a 46 ground ball right in triple a which is fine, but not great It is 34 early on the majors It's led to a 4.91 er a for barns, but his expected er a baseball savante is 6.48 That could get into trouble pretty soon and it could very well be the Yankees tonight So they're number two for me behind the Rockies My hope here is that luke void is in the lineup once again He is 2900 dollars great piece to build around if you're trying to spend up a pitcher I'm not sure what his playing time distribution will be like now at anthony arizo back from the covet i l but I think he played well enough to Earn some time especially against the lefty So I love void if he plays gary sanchez 2500 dollars another guy who Could make the stack more affordable Hasn't been hitting the ball super well recently But still think that sanchez at 2500 dollars a guy you can turn to within this yankee stack Third group here is the blue jays they're facing tyler alexander another low strikeout guy 16 strike area for him across six strips through the rotation And the batting ball data without xander is actually even more concerning than it was with barns and gilbert He's letting up a 45 hard hit rates and a 49 fly ball rate Now he faces the blue jays. That's a lineup full of righties who can send lefties into the sun I might be making a mistake putting the blue jays third might be wise to put them higher So ask tom about this in the q&a show later on I might put the blue jays higher. We'll see you can tweet at me and ask But I might put the blue jays higher. They're not going to go lower. I guarantee you that they might go higher though I think I might be a little bit too low on them, but I do think that the blue jays great out really well And they're also part of the reason I wanted to get all four stacks in here because I'm going to talk about the blue jays for sure I really want to get to tail square her nandes at 3800 dollars tonight It is tough with sale and ray, but I can make it work. Thanks to lordace gary el rental gritchik They are $3,000 and $2,500 respectively Gritchik specifically is one of the best value plays on this slate So we're looking for guys we can turn to as one offs to make our stacks more affordable make our make it easier Of the pitchers I think gritchik is one of the best value plays in the slate at $2,500 Randall gritchik to me a core play for friday night the fourth stack here in the Situation i'm on talk about is the braves. They're facing keegan akin This game is involved the more which means the braves do gain a dh for today Akin got bounced from the rotation for a bit. He was in the rotation got bounced now. He's back Even when you include his numbers in the bullpen It's not a super pretty picture for akin over his past seven outings with more change ups His hard hit rate allowed is still 46 with a 42 fly ball rate His strikeout rate is 18 and now he's facing the braves and their wrc plus is just 100 so They're not that scary against lefty if you look at that number But if you go through the individual batters in their team Scary is the exact word i would use so they also get to add an extra dude here today due to the dh So i think they're great and i'm equally high on the braves as i am on the other three here So i would say that i feel good putting the blue jays and the yankees and the rockies above them But the braves Need to be in the stacking discussion, which is why i wanted to go with for today Hoping that the dh allows us to allow Guillermo heredia to hit because he has a 197 iso against lefties with good bad at ball data needs $2,300 There's not a lot of value on this team I will need heredia basically to make the rest of this work unless i'm going with the colors So i much prefer him over abraham amante. So hopefully we get heredia in there as a dh for today $2,300 Want to get there to make the rest of the stack more affordable So again the top four stacks rock star level stacks for today are the rockies Yankees blue jays and braves whatever already want to put them out. I don't care But i think those four deserve to be at the top of our list Let's move now to things to watch if you're looking for some more value one offs in the mold of randall gritch It guys you can turn to to make the rest of your ladder more affordable I would check out the angels facing sam henchis. He's a lefty doesn't get too many strikeouts So just an upton $2,600 Joe Adele's 25 had really good numbers in triple a before he got promoted Has not parlayed that into success in the big leagues yet, but you know, I'll take some swat some some shots there So gritchick upped in Adele all guys in the lower tier in the outfield who can Hopefully allow you more leverage in the other batters while spending up a pitcher I could also see the cardinals grading out pretty well facing mitch keller who is still struggling And that's a plus for the cardinals, but There's a lot ton of value on this team So it's hard to get to them while spending up a pitcher and they're not as good of an offense as the others like if they were If they had a 115 wrc plus versus righties I'd be more lenient to to spend up for them, but they don't have that So harder for me to splurge for them when I could splurge for the braves blue jays yankies rockies, etc Etc. So I like them, but I like them less so than the other ones and they are number five for tonight Finally, I'm not sure what to think of the Dodgers They're facing Carlos Carrasco at home and they just roughed him up last week And now they get to see him for a second consecutive start The peripherals for Carrasco are not nearly as bad as his results And all the Dodgers are super high sourced. So I'd like to get there. I want to get there I'd like to use them. I think they make a lot of sense tonight, but it's just tough here I think they're gonna be behind the others which will likely make me underweight on them relative to the field so Probably gonna be underweight in the Dodgers probably underweights on Some you know Bueller as well, which is always scary. So we'll see how things play out But I think as of right now, that's how I want to play things here Final segment for today the Dinger calls for tonight And I'm going to players from the same team because I really wanted the top guy But also really wanted the fun guy here So we're gonna go with Taylor scar Hernandez and Randall gritchick Taylor scar being the boring one Gritchick being the fun one down to $2,500 I love the bad at ball data Alexander's allowed in terms of trying to get home runs I love the power numbers from Taylor scar and gritchick. So to me, I think they are both standout options home run calls for today Taylor scar Hernandez and Randall gritchick Make sure you get your Dinger calls in later on during the 4 p.m. Stream with Tom Vecchio. Let him know who you think you will go deep as you tune in 4 p.m Eastern youtube twitch facebook and twitter go there Make sure you subscribe Tom will have you covered here on the solo shot on monday and the q&a on monday as well follow him on twitter at dfs underscore tom But also make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed for mlb ufc nascar pga and eventually mfl podcasts once again all in the same podcast feed Once again, if you're in Denver swing by the fan fest on sunday Say hi We can talk for a bit talk some betting talk some dfs So if you're in Denver Just google fan to a fan fest get some tickets super easy to get and check out all that should be a really fun time Looking forward to being out in colorado for my first time It might entire less if you're there swing by and introduce yourself If you have questions for me, I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you tonight We'll talk to you once again on tuesday for more mlb action This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network