 Welcome traders. Before we begin I'd just like to give you a bit of housekeeping here. If you can hear me, you can see a Tick-Mail welcome screen on your charts, you can type a Y in the chat box. Before we get going, if you have any questions, if you could keep those to the end, I'll open up a Q&A after I've completed the material I want to share with you today. So before we get into that discussion, first of all we want to adhere to the risk disclaimer, as we know trading any financial instrument carries an inherent risk and we can lose more capital than we have on deposit. Secondly, and most importantly, the views expressed by me here today are specifically mine and they are not indicative of Tick-Mail. So for those of you who are joining me for the first time this week, I'll just give you a quick background on where I'm coming from. After I graduated, I went to the world of consulting and after a couple of years learning the ropes, I left with a couple of colleagues and did a startup. I went through some pretty rapid growth over a four to five year period and I eventually cashed in my stake and decided to explore my passion for markets. This was in late 2004 or 2005, I had a bunch of time on my hands and some chips to play with. So I started to, I guess what you more accurately referred to as gamble meddling in the market, so to speak. But I caught some lucky early breaks, day trading, the S&P 500 and started to make some solid and then quite some significant gains. What that has is often the case, my beginner's luck was about to turn. The market started to correct, I didn't really understand the different market phases at that point and so I just started averaging down on positions. And as the market continued to move against me, I pretty rapidly gave back all my gains and then I actually took a six-figure hit on my personal capital. So it was at that point that I decided to really step back and assess whether or not it was possible to actually make a sustainable income from trading. So I said about looking for someone to model a mentor, so to speak, and through some networking that introduced a guy in the States. I worked with him over an 18 month to two year period, really not just up in my technical game, but more importantly my mental game. It was a period during which I became far more self-aware and really had to change my focus from being a goal-oriented individual in terms of my previous commercial experience to actually becoming a process-oriented individual with respect to trading, because it's in understanding that it's the process in trading that repetition, executing consistently against your trading plan that actually delivers the results. It doesn't matter what your goals are. The market doesn't care. It's about executing with excellence your trading plan. So after that period, I came back to the markets in 2008. I had an extensive trading plan back-tested, forward-tested, and like I say, it started trading my own capital again in 2008. Obviously not an ideal time to come back into the market, so as we were in the throes of the GFC. But I managed to trade my way through that year and come out with positive returns at the end of the year. And since 2008, on an annual basis, I've been consistently profitable. And that's really where my focus is. I'm not emotionally investing the outcome of an individual trade or even the next 10 trades, but my focus is the next 100 trades, because I know that if I adhere to my trading plan, that my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. The data you can see on the screen is from 2013. The reason why that is, is that over that five-year period between 2008 and 2013, friends and family saw what I was doing, and I wanted a piece of the action. So I set up a managed account service which has grown organically and now represents a multimillion dollar portfolio. The most important data here for me in terms of this performance data is down here in this corner. When I have an average winning month delivers 7.96%, whereas an average losing month just 2.4%. I extrapolate that out to see that essentially I'm making two to three times what I lose. And that's the most important metric to me because I know if I keep my focus on profitability as opposed to hit-rate or win-rate, which is really irrelevant, that's where I will continue to deliver the success that I've been fortunate enough to experience over the past 12 years. So for my trading, I also have a couple of other projects. As you might know, I'm a market expert in residence for Tick-Mail. I produce a daily market outlook and also a chart of the day or a trade of the day, etc. I'm monitoring in the markets. Another passion project for me is FX CareerSwap, an emerging trader development program really, which seeks to help traders combat some of the key hurdles to going from being a retail trader to being a successful professional trader. And we've developed a big community there of like-minded individuals who are all lined behind the goal of becoming professional traders. We have some bespoke education. I teach the strategies that I've used over the past 12 years to successfully navigate the markets. Once you've completed the program, we then provide you with a funded account which you can grow and grow a successful trading business from. So capitalisation is really what kills most retail traders. They tend to be under-capitalised and so they have to over-leverage and over-extend themselves. And they took a few hits before I know the accounts gone. So we actually are offering a free trial for that program, the TRIPRO program. You can check that out at FXcareerswap.com. Right, so that gives you a flavour of where I'm coming from. Let's move into the material I want to talk about today. First and foremost, as we're coming to the end of the month, we want to check in with what we can expect from a seasonal perspective in the markets. We go on the screen at the moment, a matrix of 20-year seasonality really for most of the major markets. And so July is coming to an end. We're heading into August now. What this matrix is telling us is that the Australian dollar can see some weakness in August. From a seasonal perspective, it's the second worst month of the year over a 20-year average for the Australian dollar. We also see the same for the British pound, Canadian dollar to a lesser degree, euro to a lesser degree, but still obviously a subpar underperforming. We see a strong month for the Japanese yen. So what sort of takeaway from that? Well, when Japanese yen tends to train well, we tend to be in a period of risk aversion. So if we follow that through, we can see that the Kiwi dollar has a pretty torrid time. So it's worst month of the year, August. And what we also see here is in terms of risk assets for the equity markets, it's actually the worst month of the year for those. And we see that the dollar index tends to fare pretty well. And so if we think about the risk metrics that we've seen in the markets, it's either risk on risk off. And if seasonality is going to have any play in what's coming in August, we can expect some risk off. Goldman Sachs have also highlighted this to their clients, showing that since 1985, obviously September, tend to be the worst performing months for the S&P 500. And it's a period during which ETFs, so exchange traded funds, equity mutual funds, etc., since 1996, 25% of outflows happen in all of this. So again, that's feeding into this idea from a seasonal perspective that market participants tend to stay away or reduce their exposure to equities. So in terms of risk profile, it's paired back during August. So that's something to have in your mind as we start heading into this period that we can see some volatility. And then this feeds into Euro. So as you know, for those who have seen or been following my work, I'm structurally bullish in Euro. But I think we're at a, we're reaching a phase at the moment where I think we can see a pullback and that's the trade will come back. So I'm not, I'm certainly not suggesting that we're done with the upside. I think we've got quite a way more to go. But in the near term, heading into August, if we're going to see some risk off here, then I think the Euro is going to have to give back some of its gains. Likewise, with the dollar, this is work from JP Morgan extrapolating through their fund flows, where they see a stretch in terms of positioning. So I did a similar note and you can see the way to last time we got into this area in 2017 we saw, you know, we saw significant decline. I don't think that's going to be the case this time because I think what we're seeing is a structural repositioning with major major capital flows, aligning behind this idea of the potential now with the debt mutualization. On the table at least for Europe, which is, which is historically has hindered the progress of Europe. We're starting to see big players pick up a bit of exposure now in terms of Europe and I think we've got, we've got further to go. But certainly at this point we look a bit stretched on the upside. So let's, let's see what this translates to in terms of, in terms of the chance of opportunities start with the dollar. This is the equal weighted dollar index. So, what we're looking at here is a dollar index, the Dow Jones dollar index, which is tracking the dollar versus four other major currencies on an equal weighted basis. So that's the Australian dollar, Japanese yen, sterling and the Euro. Okay, we obviously we've had a pretty much waterfall decline at the moment, but I'm looking for this equality objective so this swing here, this last leg down that we saw in terms of the dollar. I'm looking for it to be equal equal measure, a measured move into this one. 1986 area and then I'm looking for for a bounce as we head into August. So if we're going to see some risk a version of the markets we should theoretically see the dollar correct some of its recent losses. And I think what we'll be looking for is, it's August and September to be a period potentially consolidation. And as like I mentioned last week, as we head into October November, as the election in the US becomes front of mind for everyone, and we potentially see, in terms of some significant second waves in terms of COVID-19, whilst we're without a vaccine. I think there's opportunity for some interim dollar strength, but ultimately, I believe that we are heading lower in the dollar and meaningfully so so I'm looking for this equality move to stem the current decline. Again, for those who follow my daily daily outlook, Citibank, the quarantine there, in terms of month-end flows, see the potential for euro strength into month-end. So this would, even though we're trading slightly higher here today in terms of the dollar, this won't not through the volume wasted average price. So for me, this isn't actually, although this candle will be green on the normal chart. For me, the five period tick waiting in terms of upticks and downticks still suggest bearish possibilities. So I think we could into tomorrow month-ends see a test of this equality objective and then as we head into next week, maybe we get this pullback in the dollar. So I'm watching that. Let's look at the broader dollar index. Obviously, this dollar index is weighted more towards the euro. Again, what I'm looking at here is the equality objective. You can see we're trading just above it and just above this potential descending trend line support. So any move down into this 93 area tomorrow, 92, 50, 93, we're watching for bullish reversal patterns. We don't get tick data through on the DXY. So I can't overlay the volume waste average price. So obviously I'll key off the equal waste dollar index, but I've been looking for a test into this area and then to see as we head into Monday. So statistically, Friday and Monday are the pit of the highest statistical weightings for us to see interim or more meaningful market tops or bottoms. So looking, let's let's jump into the euro. I'm looking for a story here. I'm looking for the euro to test. It's a quality objective 1830. We've got a bunch of fib confluence up here. So the equality versus this swing here into the 1830. We've got the 261 extension of the last correction also coming in at 39. We've got 261 extension of the initial structure of the lows here coming in 1833. We've also got the projected trend line resistance using this trend line support overlaid here 1850. So again, similar to that dollar index, I'm looking for this, this, this test here to produce a immediate reaction. And I'll be looking for a red close in terms of your obviously we're seeing a bit of weakness here in the market at the moment. But for me in terms of setups, I'm looking for it to test this area before, before jumping in on on the short side. And again, my thesis here is, is not that we're going to crash or roll over, but that we correct during this period of potential volatility as we head into August. And certainly anything down into this 114 50 area would be would be very attractive in terms of lungs where I think you know we're heading through up to 120 and beyond really over the winter month as we head into the winter months and the election. So we'll see how we trade but in terms of setups anything in this 118 to 118 50 area with a bearish reversal pattern, I'd be a beginning on the short side, initially looking for 116. We probably retest then into that 118 area before getting that final stab lower, which I think will be the buying opportunity as we head into into the winter months. So dolly end. Dolly end is also about to test the pivotal area. We've got this big equality move. We've got some we've got an interim equality objective all lined up here at this one of four 27104 13. We've got 78.6% retracement of the March advance coming in one of 344 so the reversal patterns in this area, I think offer a great risk reward in terms of doing something on the long side this will coincide obviously with that dollar index, getting getting a bounce here. Initially, look for 106 price support probably going to be resistance on the first test. You know, we might have to retest this 104 area, but but ultimately what I've looked for then would be a more meaningful correction higher here in the, in the, in the. We see this trend here. So, again, we could be training back up into this 108 area. During during a period of risk aversion. The other dollar pair that I'm watching today specifically I shared this as a chart here. We've got this Canadian dollar testing the monthly S1 potential double bottom. We've got momentum divergence down here with our momentum studies and we're putting in a bullish outside reversal. So, if we close at or above current levels that's going to be a by signal from the VWAP indicator as well. And so for that then we were looking at targets obviously, and we use an equality objective. So looking at an equidistant swing here, we'll put us back into that 137 22. We have the the VWAP resistance bands coming around that area as well. So, I'm watching this one tonight and the clothes New York clothes and get the clothes, and I'll be looking at long positions in the Canadian dollar. It's checking with the Singapore dollar. It's not playing ball. I was tracking this one earlier it looked like it. It also is going to try and put in a bullish reversal but not so much now. Euro CAD. Moving into an interesting area as well. We have obviously with the US strength has been grinding higher but we're coming into some big confidence here we have the 161 extension of this swing here. And we have the 78.6% retracement of the last leg down. So I'm looking at 15790 to 15817. The reversal pattern is here. And I think we could correct lower in terms of the Euro cash. That's another one that's on my watch list. Similar Euro Kiwi traded this from the long side this week. And 205, 405 pips out of this. Now what I'm looking for is the test here you can see we've got this symmetry swing. Put us in at this 178 area. We've also got the 161 extension of this structure. So I've been looking for the Euro Kiwi to get a move something like this. And then I think we see a pullback. Certainly, initially what I've been targeting would be the symmetry swing here to take us back down into this 176 area. But potentially this could be the end of a correction here now, in terms of the Euro Kiwi and we could be trading back down into the 172 area. So again, tracking, watching for that red close in terms of the volume was average price to something on the wrong side sterling has been on a run here coming into some potential trend line resistance here a couple of trend lines really I'm watching watching this one currently that we're testing. But the monthly R2 when pretty overbought here now in terms of in terms of momentum studies and the cycle studies so we got to put bearish reversal pattern here. So sterling would be a short and if you remember the heat map from the start sterling tends to have a pretty rough month in August so I think we can be back down testing. It's 126 areas support before the next leg higher and sterling so watching how we trade certainly initially at this 130 30 area. If we get through here today on the close then we've got this bigger trend line. We're back in from highs, which would have us at 130 180. And again, it's certainly watching how we trade their bearish reversal patterns will be an opportunity to do something on the short side. So to two areas I'm watching there in sterling on on the watch list. And it's again sterling yet about to test major trend line here at the 137 20 area current trade once with 3696. We've got some some resistance there so we'll see this will coincide obviously with sterling major holding its resistance. Yeah and so watching 137 23 looking for bearish reversal pattern. I think that will put us back down then at least into this 134 50 would be the initial target on that. So sterling Swiss similar type of story really the alternative here obviously with sterling Swiss is it if we get a close through this trend line resistance, then there's an opportunity to actually trade it on the long side. But if we hold and roll over here, and I've been looking for a pullback but if we can get a close through here. So ideally what we'd like to see is a two day clothes as confirmation, then then we can see a breakout here in sterling Swiss and in terms of targets. We would have, we could easily be looking to move up into this 127 area currently trade 19 so again, not always necessarily looking for looking for reversals as such happy to play the breakout as well so I mean if we get that close to be nice and there'd be opportunities then on intraday charts to get in on the long side, better risk rewards, and then you've got a target up here 127. Now let's look at these Aussie and the Kiwi. So Aussie coming into its potential putting in a sending wedge pattern here. We've traded up tested that 72 objective and we could be getting a red close here so that would coincide obviously the loony and the Aussie are pretty correlated so we've got a couple of opportunities in terms of the policy effects developing here. Again, we've got nice momentum divergence was sitting at this. Sending wedge trend line resistance. So initially what we target is a move down into the 70 area. We can anticipate that we see some chopping around there but ultimately, I've been looking for a test into the bull support bands down to the 68 80 area initially. Just thinking about that seasonality as well as additional confirmation for any setups we get now heading into August in the Aussie come a long way in the Aussie and certainly if we see these equity markets take minimal wobble then the Aussie heavily correlated with those at the same time as we can anticipate we see a pullback in the Aussie Aussie. Similar story here. We have that double top last week that I talked about we haven't really seen the depth of pullback that we that we would anticipate because obviously the Aussie has remained elevated so the, you know, the, the major headline pair is going to be what drives the action so we'll wait to see if we can get that close red clothes tonight. There will be opportunities on the short side in the Aussie Aussie cat is also another one I'm watching got significant momentum divergence. Again, it's going to be driven by the Aussie. So we'll keep an eye on that tonight. Kiwi similar story here Kiwi. I was looking for the Kiwi to test this, this 67 20 67 50 area. Obviously we don't always get those but I'm looking for the Kiwi to to have a rougher time during August and certainly we should be back testing 65 area turn on supports would be the natural objective you can see the ball bands coming in just into that area so that would be the initial objective. If we start to, if we start to get a bit of traction on the downside, then what I look for is symmetry swing so this last corrective leg here the biggest one during this phase of price action. So if we can get that, that to develop, then we could, we could see a 64 20 test as we head into August. Again, that that those will potentially be giving us buying opportunities as certainly I still envisage that we test this 31st December high 2019 and so once we get into this area certainly be looking for bullish reversal patterns on the daily charts to step long positions and let's check in just finally here with the S&P and see where we are so the S&P ideally what I'd love to, what I'd love to see here will be a retest of these price cycle highs at this 133 94 we're holding projected channel here so if we can get a pop into tomorrow then that would, that would be a great setup then for us to potentially have a wobble heading into August and that would further support the idea that we see a roll over in the more risky aligned effects pairs. So watching for that 33 68 to 34 or two area bearish reversal patterns will be a selling opportunity to NASDAQ. We've got a lot of tech earnings out tonight, still holding the channel at the moment so again this NASDAQ what I anticipate is we get one more pop here. We've got a divergence galore in terms of the momentum studies and then I've been looking for for certainly a trainable pullback in terms of the NASDAQ. Last but not least let's check in with gold. Obviously it's been on been on the tear and what I want to actually show you the slides got here. This is an analog of gold versus the last time we saw major come to the easing 2010 to 2011 and you can see the similarities in terms of price action so I think there is further to going gold but I don't believe in chasing it at the current levels. I mean, James I'm using the daily time frame. I don't think we need to chase it at current levels. I think there's certainly a tradeable pullback, but again heading into back end of the year, then we can see some significant, another significant layer of higher potential in terms of goals so I'll be looking for a correction. The other thing to watch as well which is important is the monthly close because what we could be looking at is a very significant potential double top here if we fail to take out these prior highs it's 1910 on a closing basis. So this is a monthly chart obviously month and tomorrow so I've been checking in with these monthly charts over the weekend and seeing where where we are from the much higher time frame it's very useful to understand the bigger patterns in place so certainly if the gold falls back here and we get a close back below 1910, then we can see a more meaningful pullback, however, if we can close above here at current levels are higher next upside objective becomes 2146 on route to ultimately test 2445 would be the objective this next leg higher in terms of gold so again key to watch the monthly close tonight to get a sense the momentum in gold. Okay, those are the basically the charts that I'm watching at the moment guys. Like I say, looking for some some volatility to be heading to August. I can see some, some pairs that can mean reversal at all. But again, my, my, my overriding view is that the dollar has is on is in the early stages of a more protracted decline. So these pairs like your own sterling some of the risk riskier effects are in the nascent stages of what I think we're going to be structural moves higher is the is the key takeaway. Okay, are there, are there any questions anyone like you take a look at the chart looks at you can type the charts in the chat box or type your question in the chat box or I can unmute your mic and you can you can ask me a question live. Suisse and crew, okay. Okay, so I mean the Suisse and pulled back into and held this prior prior resistance now support. So I'd have, I'd be expecting higher. So if we take out this 11555, then it's, we, you know, we've got this cement. Sorry, this quality objective here, clone that, which would put us up into 161 extension of this swing here this structure, and then above there we've got the big equality objective at 99. Does that answer Charlie with the Suisse and so we I mean it's difficult you can't it's difficult to get bearish until we trade back down below these, these prior highs here. So they've held it putting an outside reversal yesterday so it looks pretty bullish and crude. This is kind of an olden cat and now as we wait to see, you know what's going to happen with these reopenings. Yeah, I mean, we certainly there is divergence but you know this is this month in terms of, you know, this is being fundamentally driven I mean we saw the wash out wash out some crude. And what I think you're seeing here is, is actually a lack of participation that participants are simply not engaged in the market so we're just grinding higher here. And you're going to find less that the momentum is going to have less of an impact when you don't have. I mean from what I understand at the moment open interest in terms of crude is a horrifically low levels. And all the guys that got hit on that, on that decline, you know, those are the major market participants and so without those, you just got a, you know, a market is going drifting, like, you know, grinding higher without much participation. So again, it's you to really benefit from a momentum divergence, you have to be trading highly liquid asset. If that makes sense. Arnold, I think I've answered that if, if you were just, if you're only just joined us I'm happy to get back over it but I think I answered that. This isn't spame what you mean by risk on risk off risk on risk off simply refers to the market, the market's perspective so when we're in a risk on mode. People want to allocate assets that are going to yield high returns so you're going to take your cash that you've got in your savings account and you're going to invest in stocks. You're going to invest in, in higher yielding assets than you, than you get from the bank just saving your cash. Whereas, when markets are in a risk off mode, then they, they're looking for low yielding safe haven assets so traditionally that's been the bond market. But with the Federal Reserve flooding the market with liquidity. You know you're almost paying them to hold your cash so you are in Europe. So that's what's causing a drive into things like the dollar into the Swiss franc into the Japanese yen, which are considered safe havens during a period of risk off. So that makes sense so in a more in a risk on environment money's going to go into the Australian dollar Kiwi dollar the euro sterling. So that's the, that's the dynamic. And for us. How much do you take into account current sentiment regarding direction moves between the dispute will confirm what you're seeing. So, thanks for the comment. So for me that the technicals drive drive everything. And, you know, I believe personally that everything that is known about a market is in its current price. And then there's a disagreement between buys and sellers in terms of future price. But what I use to, you know, I'm always, I'm tracking all this, you know, seasonalities flows, specifically in forex, you know the market in the stock market it's driven by analysis of earnings and balance sheets, etc. In the forex markets, it's driven by flows, big, big capital flows moving and shifting. And if you can get a handle on the footprints of that, like, you know, I share with the guys in my trading team every day, the UBS JP Morgan and trading desk comments because those trading desk see the greatest amount of interbank flow in the market. They have a great read on where the flow is going, and then they're identifying levels where they anticipate that they, you know, these major participants will look to engage the market. So, absolutely the technicals drive everything for me. And what I, what, you know, what I really keep abreast of is the market dynamics and what are the market narratives because those narratives aligned with fundamentals will will will either make the technical pattern play out or not play out. Does that make sense? Okay, any other questions? Okay, if there aren't any other questions, guys, I'm going to wrap this up here. I hope you hope you found that useful. And we'll reconvene in the first week of August and see if we get this anticipated volatility. Okay, thanks very much for your time.