 If Amazon gaps up tomorrow, that's not the value play, okay? I don't want to chase the performance for the last several days. Again, if they gap it down into support and it goes red to green ahead of Prime Day, right? Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys, good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader.com nightly update show. Happy Monday, everybody. Hope everybody is doing well. So let's talk about the market. So really extraordinary moves the last three, four days. Again, I think the key for the bulls and, you know, we've been talking about this pretty much constantly now for the last several weeks was the first order of business was to kind of get out of this range here. And that's what we did. We closed above the 280 level on the queues several days back and it was very, very bullish. And that really started kind of an avalanche of buying pressure. And we had this really big run, okay? Queues in the last four days, just to kind of put it into perspective, have gone from 274, that was the low of October the 6th to the high of 297 today, okay? That's 23 points on the QQQs. That's kind of a big deal. And there's something to be told that sometimes it's better to sell early, okay, or then to sell late. So in other words, sell when you want to, not when you have to. And unfortunately, when you get a scenario that too much too fast, even the most aggressive permeables turnaround say, well, wait a minute, things are getting a little bit out of control here in the last three, four days, you know, even the most Olympic thoroughbred type of runner, right? The world's greatest athletes, they get tired too. They need to refuel. And I think the biggest issue kind of going into tomorrow's session is finding that value of names that well, haven't broken out yet. And again, nobody's going to turn around and say, look, I'm expecting this market to go down 500 points tomorrow, this is the top of the market. But again, I think we have to kind of be aware that again, buying pressure eventually dies out. And even in the greatest markets in the world, stocks get tired. We cover this, we've been covering this kind of nausea for years. Stocks just don't go straight up. Indexes just don't go straight up. And obviously stocks don't go straight down as well. Eventually, there are some bumps in the road. And the way I look at what we've seen in the last three, four days, we had some significant catalysts led into event days from both Amazon, which is a monster, monster move. We went up, what, 300 points in the last several days. Apple, which I really, really loved, we talked about it briefly on the weekend update, broke out aggressively. Tomorrow is their iPhone event. Again, I think the retail trade was buy into the event. I think the bigger retail trade was, well, let's take Apple overnight while they're going to gap it up into the event. Maybe they will, right? Maybe they will, maybe they won't. But the moral of the story is the trade has already gone. And again, for Apple to go from, and you can, you can look at Apple's chart. And this is what we talked about. If you could see Apple is going from, you know, 115 to 125 and 24 hours, that's a big deal, right? That's, that's kind of a big move. You had your catalyst, you had your move, and now you have to see what happens next. And again, traditionally, what they do in a lot of these events, once the, you know, once the event is over, they kind of sell it off. Again, it is to be determined if that's going to happen. Okay, I think at some point, if they especially open Apple down tomorrow, obviously a red to green scenario will work. I mean, should work just because again, in anticipation of a new iPhone, of new iPhone features. So again, there's definitely a trade there, but chasing Apple tomorrow, if it gaps up into higher highs, I think it could be a mistake. Same thing with Amazon, for example. Again, Amazon had this really monster run. We've been talking about different levels here for like several, you know, several weeks now, and finally confirmed this whole channel here. And again, literally in three days, the stock has gone from 3190 all the way to 3,500. That's a lot, right? That's a lot. And again, we get it. Tomorrow is Amazon Prime Day. You know, they're going to do 10 billion dollars like in 30 seconds. We get all that, right? Nobody is disputing that Amazon is not a beast. Look, can I see the stock going to 3,600 tomorrow? Why not? We saw ridiculous amounts of call buyers coming in, right? For the last several hours, monster volume flow coming in on the 3,600 call. So again, it wouldn't shock me. But again, if Amazon gaps up tomorrow, that's not the value play, okay? I don't want to chase the performance for the last several days. Again, if they gap it down into support and it goes red to green ahead of Prime Day, right? Then yes, of course, you can make a case that you can definitely at least get a trade out of it to make it worth your while. But I think at this juncture, because the Qs did have such a big move in less than three days, you have to be very, very careful. So the names that had these monster, monster runs, those are not the names you want to concentrate on. Again, the worst thing you can do is chase performance that you missed two, three days ago. It's never going to end well. And if you notice today, there are a handful of names that started getting tired. Again, you can make the case while they're just resting to go higher tomorrow, or you can just make a case while the Nasdaq is up, the Qs are up 23 points in three days. They're just tired. They need a back test. And if you look at names like a square, for example, like a Roku, for example, again, Roku, a Netflix, for example, Netflix as well, you can really, really make that case beyond as well. So you can make that case. But, but again, remember, we are in a very, very aggressive market just because a stock is weak today doesn't mean it's going to be weak tomorrow. And any pullback that we do have potential pullback that if we do have one tomorrow, again, guys, just just keep in mind, there is no selling pressure. There is no fear. There actually is no catalyst to take the market down. So any move, right, that you're trying to get to the short side tomorrow, if if again, these are all ifs, these are all things we have on the table that we're aware that we're trying to be prepared. So we don't, you know, we don't get caught off guard. But if you are trying to get that quote unquote reversal, just ask the people who are trying to constantly short peloton because it's it can't go higher, even a name like JK solar, right, that they had this ridiculous run, for the exception of today, these are all massive green bar. So the idea that a stock in reverse and you're going to catch it the day of the reversal, it's great in theory. Okay, so the idea that the cues are going to reverse tomorrow, potentially reverse tomorrow and have a red session. It's a great theory, right? It's a great theory. And I'm trying to convince myself that that is at least on the table. But the reality is shorts get trapped all the time in these types of scenarios. And we have to go case by case. So the idea of buying Amazon tomorrow into strength. It's not on the table for me. Apple into strength. It's not on the table for me. Now again, if a name like Roku could wake up, right, after a couple of days of consolidation, you could see how tight the channel is, then at least we have something to talk about a name like DDOG at least, you know, rally yesterday, rested today, right? At least we have a point of reference that we can talk about even a name like NIO that had this really, really big run over the last several months is just consolidating. Again, is there at least a point of reference that at least if we get rejected off the consolidation, can at least we turn around and say, okay, at least we got that level, we understand why it got rejected. These are things I can live with if I'm going to take a trade and I'm going to lose money in. What I can't live with knowing that if I'm buying a stock or an index of three, four days in a row up 150 points and you lose money, well, that's your fault. Okay, that's just called FOMO overdrive. There is no value in the trade. You have all exposure, right? All exposure, not enough prosperity. And unfortunately, if you continue to do that over and over again, eventually you're going to run out of luck. So I think the most important part for the last three days that we've seen a big aggressive market rally, huge moves and some of the biggest names out there. We talked about the Amazons of the world, the Apple filing woke up, Microsoft we discussed, it woke up as well. But now I think again, just to be on the little bit more of the prude inside, again, I'm not talking about, I'm going to be sell bias tomorrow. I'm definitely buy bias until they give me a reason not to, but those names I kind of want to put aside. And I do want to watch names like a Tesla and someone will turn around and say, well, how can Tesla not be part of that group? Well, Tesla, right, you can see this whole channel here. Tesla got rejected where it's rejected right off the top of this channel off the highs of October 1st. So there still is in play if it confirms, right? If it confirms Netflix, again, despite this really, really massive move, at least if you get a back test into rising five days support, at least you could get a bounce play. But again, you have to validate, okay, in your mind, technically, where you're entering these trades right now, or else, again, you're going to have a problem. So if you look at the pivots today, in a weird way with the index is very, very strong, a lot of our value today, if you guys, you know, really break down the day, a lot of our value gapped way ahead of our numbers, right? There's a specific number I wanted on Apple, it gapped up what six above that number. Again, who's going to chase Apple up six, Microsoft gapped way above their numbers. So again, we weren't in a premium situation today, like we were on Friday, waiting for all these things to play out. But again, at the end of the day, whatever the market gives you, it's your responsibility to either play those cards, muck those cards. But again, the overall point is to stay in business. So let's talk about the day. And again, the names that didn't gap up didn't participate. So we were kind of really stuck a rock in a hard place. But again, the great part about trading is you don't need to trade because the markets open, you can legitimately sit there until these levels confirm. So if you look at DDOG, it never got to this level. Okay, I'm still watching it for tomorrow. But for today, again, you can't create a trade that's not there. Tesla 444 needs to build. Here was Tesla, right? So here was the Tesla daily chart. So it took out the 444, you see where it stops guys. And this is where I always talk about trading is not, it's not subjective technical analysis, pretty on point. If you notice here, the top of the channel here was 449. Today's high is roughly 449. You guessed it, it got rejected off the channel. And again, you could turn around and say, well, doesn't that mean Tesla's a short? Not in a bull market, it's not. Again, you want to give it every opportunity to succeed on the long side until they start macro levels down. So again, not a bad move on Tesla. Spotify never got to 256. Again, congratulations for all you guys who came along Amazon today, just an absolute monster move. And again, this was the prudent thing to do. Consider taking 90% of your position off just because again, it had such a big run. And it's much better to say that sell a day early than it is a day late. This sucker actually caught me for three points today. Snow upgraded, rejected at 250. So I get long stock. I didn't do any size on this thing. Nothing crazy. But the point is, it was so thin, it was like trading on air. So I think this was like my first and last time trading the snow. ZM, again, congratulations for all you guys who are still in ZM. Again, it's not making it easy. But again, trade as high as 506 today. Nice move there. BiGC, 101.75, 102 needs to build. Here was BiGC, right? Traded all the way up to almost 105. NKLA. I think this is the lowest close for NKLA, right? It pretty much closed at 24 bucks. I think this thing is maybe a day away. It didn't participate now for the last couple of days. It definitely didn't participate in the last couple of sessions of rallying. So that's a very big deal. So this one, I think goes lower. Etsy keeps on getting rejected at 150, needs to build. Not getting, not a huge move on Etsy. But again, when you're buying everything up really big levels, again, this is what's going to happen. Eventually, it's going to put a blow off top and come in. But here's the Etsy pivot. Here's the 150, right? 150. Trade it to like 151 and change. Not a big move, but again, it is what it is. Netflix, a nice move on Netflix. 546 needs to reclaim. Again, not the Netflix from two days ago, but Netflix. Here is the 546 build, right? Here is the 546 and a trader right to supply initially around the 550s area. So nice move on Netflix. Again, always say take on the way up. ZM, again, ZM had actually had a sneaky pivot. Any close over 500 bullish, which it didn't do, which is a little disappointing, but it is what it is. 498.55, 499 needs to build for a possible afternoon run. It actually did though. It actually did before the market reversed. So here is the pivot right here. This 498.50, 499, and it traded right to supply roughly around the 503 area. So nice little move there. But again, technically, well not technically, but macro wise is still in a good place. Again, nice pop there in the afternoon. So I think tomorrow definitely concentrate on the tighter names, either the names that rested today, or the names that are just coming out of the channel. Again, the last thing you want to do is find yourself in a position that your stock that already you missed a performance three, four days ago is putting in a blow off top and you're just trying to play catch-ups. So be very, very careful. So guys, have a great night everybody. Enjoy yourself, enjoy your evening. God's help. I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care.