 Welcome to today's live market analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. I'm just quitting before we get started here. If you can hear me and you can see the TickMeal welcome screen, could you type a Y in the chat box? Good stuff. Okay, let's get going. So before we jump into today's material, as always, we want to pay attention to the risk disclaimer, which firstly informs us that trading any financial instrument carries an inherent amount of risk and we can lose more capital than we necessarily have on deposit. And secondly and most importantly for today's discussion, the material and opinions expressed by me today are solely mine. They are not representative or indicative of those held by TickMeal UK Limited or TickMeal Europe Limited. Now that we've covered that off, before we get going with the charts and the analysis, a brief introduction to me. Like I say, my name is Patrick Munnally. After I graduated from King's College London, I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I ultimately left there with some colleagues and went on to successfully co-found and exit a consulting startup post-emerger in late 2004. I then moved on to explore my passion for markets. So with some capital to play with and some time on my hands, I started day trading the S&P 500. After some early beginners luck ran out, I experienced a significant six-figure financial hit. At this point, I decided to get serious about trading and sort out a mentor who demonstrated excellence in the field of trading. I worked with this mentor for 18 months to two years. It was a period during which I upped not just my technical game in terms of developing a trading strategy, researching it, developing extensively back-testing and forward-testing, all of which was underpinned by a rigorous risk management strategy. Most importantly, during this period of mentorship, though, I significantly developed my mental game. And probably most importantly there, I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal-orientated individual focusing on financial gains to being purely process-orientated. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process-orientated and have a professional trading mindset and you really understand and accept the true nature of trading, i.e. being a numbers game in which you are simply playing probabilities, you then lose the emotional investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even strings of trades. My focus is on the next 100 trades because I know if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi-strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. The results you can see on the screen are from 2013 when I started managing investor capital through a managed account service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing a multi-million dollar portfolio, which has grown organically from my capital, like I say, to managing investor capital. And on the screen at the moment, you can see the trading data here. And like I say, I'm looking at an extended series of outcomes. So I do experience losing months, losing trades, multiple losing months, but because I keep consistently executing my strategy, ultimately I come out on top. And the most important data for me here is really this data down here in the corner. So an average winning month for me is 7.85%. An average losing month is 2.35%. So if you extrapolate that out, you can gauge that on average I'm making two to three times what I lose. And as long as I keep those metrics in place, then I know that over the longer term horizon, I'll continue to be successful. Since 2010, I've also personally mentored over 100 private traders of all experienced labels from complete novices to former CME floor traders, developing the technical and mental skills to reap consistent returns from the markets. I've also consulted numerous brokers and trading education brands contributing written content webinars and live presentation content on a range of topics from market analysis to trading strategy development and execution. In addition to my fund management responsibilities. I'm also a resident market expert for Tick Mill providing daily market analysis and trade analysis. You can access that through the Tick Mill blog, or you can even sign up to receive notifications of the post and they can be sent to your inbox. The only other project and really a passion project for me is as the head of trading and trading education for a leading retail trading development firm, trading education firm called FX Career Swap. We offer development and funding to retail trading talents and FX Career Swap. We don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge. We also work extensively on mindset development and through our structured program that culminates through to managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. For those that are interested, I will post a link in the chat we actually have a 14 day free trial for those who are interested in learning more about that opportunity. Okay, so that gives you a flavor of who I am and where I'm coming from. Now let's jump into some of the off the charts stuff that I like to take a look at as we've just started new month we should check in with the seasonals. So on the screen at the moment, you can see seasonal patterns over the last 20 years for the major financial instruments that I track. I don't use this information really as necessary to engage or enter trades, but certainly I use it to help in terms of if I do get a signal from one of my strategies. If seasonal sync up, then I will a lot of times try and ride that trade to to increase returns. What we can get a sense of here, at least through the next couple of months is that there is a potential for the dollar to have a brief, what I think is going to be a brief, brief pause in its negative sentiment, and we can potentially see a correction, as identified here by these green squares, suggesting positive period for the dollar, you can see slightly weaker periods here for the euro, the Japanese yen, British pounds, not so much, Australia dollar a little bit stronger but really the idea for me at the moment or what I'm looking at is the potential for a near term and I say near term dollar correction and that potentially then will feed into a pullback in terms of some of these risk markets, specifically the S&P for those who weren't here last week, just briefly, this is a seasonal chart of the S&P 500, all election years down here since 1950 and up here since 1995, this is the current market, the 2020 market overlays, and you can see that from a seasonal perspective we often see a top in the S&P 500 in advance of the elections which are on November the 3rd, more often than not we see a low then occur, and so I'm watching at the moment some patterns that developing in the S&P will look at the actual chart in a minute, which suggests to me that we could be starting to see the initial phases of this pullback develop. Here we have a an interesting chart from Crescent Capital, they have just done an overlay here of financial conditions, so this means off Wall Street basically the actual main street what the financial conditions are for the average American versus where the S&P 500 is, and what we get a sense off here is that when financial conditions make meaningful lows highlighted by these yellow circles, we tend to see some type of near term correction in terms of the markets. Now sometimes this has been a significant correction, as in the dot com boom and bust and the GFC 2008-2009, and so it's interesting to note that we are seeing these financial conditions really suggest that we could see a potential pullback develop in terms of the the broader S&P 500 at the moment. I've highlighted last week the issues we've got with breadth in markets of breadth as referenced stocks that are advancing versus stocks that are declining versus the overall market. This is the NASDAQ, we rolled over significantly in breadth, the prior times when we've seen this we have actually seen the markets pullback and NASDAQ obviously has been on a tear, and so we want to watch as this breadth continues to decline the impact that could have in the near term on the markets. Finally here we have the S&P 500 versus the New York Stock Exchange advancing decline, and you can see we're getting some divergence up here as the S&P has made its most recent highs. One other chart that I just want to draw your attention to here is this is the aggregate net speculative positioning for the US dollar, and you can see here we're actually making significant lows at the moment in terms of the stretch. So this means that the market is heavily short the US dollar at the moment, and more often than not, when the boat gets loaded on one side, we tend to see a correction or a pullback at least. And so this brings me into the dollar view that I have at the moment where I see the potential, I'm not suggesting it's going to be anything particularly meaningful at this stage but certainly potential for a pullback. And what we're going to do this week as we, when we first jump into the charts now, is I'm going to run you through some cycle or fractal analysis. This isn't something we've done before in these sessions, but I think it will be useful for you guys in terms of broadening your scope of understanding of how markets potentially function. And here is the dollar index chart. And if we just scroll this out a bit and you'll see it more clearly. This is versus the decline we saw in 2017 over here. These boxes basically replicate similar phases of price action versus our current phase. Now what's important with this stuff is that, whilst the markets have a tendency to, or let's actually everyone probably knows the phrase history doesn't necessarily repeat but it certainly rhymes. And the reason for this is that the market is ultimately made up of human beings who have a tendency to act in a similar fashion given a similar set of circumstances. And so what we're looking at here on the left hand side is we saw the advance into the high in December 2016, the advance into the high here, March 20. And then we saw the initial move off the lows. Sorry, the initial move off the highs. And then we saw this corrective period. We saw a similar corrective period here in May of this year. We then broke down out of the corrective zone as we did here and then we pulled back to a test of resistance area. And then we saw a protracted move what we can refer to as the waterfall or impulse move. And then we would bring us back down into this low here. At the moment, we, we are correcting and this correction to my mind if we just blow this up a little bit, we get a sense of what's going on. So we're going to raise here now and see a correction before another low develops into into September. And this this low that I think will develop into September should broadly coincide with a potential top coming in with the 500, but we'll see this this low could represent this low. What you can get a sense of here is what the potential then is for a corrective move. And if it if we continue to track the 2017 market map. And like I say, we're not necessarily going to be tracking every level specifically. But what we're talking about is the fractal nature so the the overall price pattern the shape of the price, and how we can start to see how that could develop and where the opportunities will lie. So the distinct opportunity for me at this stage is going to be one looking for a tradeable low in the dollar. And I'm currently long the dollar in my accounts and I'll talk you through that when I look at specific setups in a minute. So what I'm looking for is this correction into certainly to get it back into that 94 or as high as 9550 here. And then what I see is the potential for the fight the ultimate waterfall move down, which will actually bring us back into that 8840 area. So this is this is just a form of market mapping which allows you to get a sense of the scope and scale for moves in the market. So that's the dollar index. So now if we think in terms of the euro and the euro is the biggest constituent of the broader dollar index. So that's why we want to see how the patterns overlap and how they track in terms of the euro. So you can see, made a low. We've got a move off the low that an overlapping move similar to the overlapping nature of the price action here. This is the accumulation phase they refer to it. And then we get this break higher consolidation just prior to the highs consolidation just prior to the highs. And then we get that impulse move higher, which we've seen. And now we're consolidating here. And I think, and again, once we start to look at the at the charts and the second the actual trading charts, and you'll see what I think the opportunity is but certainly if we go pull back into the 117 area, you can see then we would have the scope to make a move up into this 122 area before getting a pullback, which then I think will give the setup for the move up into this 125 127 area. And then I talked about previously on the weekly charts if you have if you weren't in prior sessions I suggest you go back over some of the previous weeks where I've looked at the weekly and the monthly charts. And, and you'll see, I can actually post the link here for you. I think there's a link there, which will allow you to access the recordings and you can, and you can get a sense of what I'm talking about with respect to the the weekly setups the symmetry swing moves actually for control in for you here. So we use the train base extension tool. So we have this point here, this point here, and from here. So we actually have the potential to expand higher here in an equality move up to the 128, but certainly would be looking for 126 45 as an ultimate objective for this cycle. Okay, is everyone follow along with respect to what I'm talking about here in terms of this, the fractal nature of the market is, is that making sense. Why in the chat box, if, if you're still with me, good stuff. Okay, so let's look now at some some of the actual cycles in some of the other pairs. So here's the sterling. And I've overlaid an earlier wave cam here. Again, I don't live and die by any way, but where I can see patterns that are obvious to me then I certainly will track those. I think we're in a stage now with the sterling where we could see a pullback here to test a third test. And these are ones that I certainly track this ascending trend line support so back down to this 129 71 30 area. And then complete an interim five wave cycle, which would set up then an equality objective from that 130 up as high as 141. And then so we got through to ourselves well, what could be the catalyst to drive that move well, we likely see a wobble in the heading into the end of September, where we've got the Brexit negotiations. Or as I through experience know with this, this type of stuff. What we tend to do is we tend to hear a lot of hard talk, just prior to the, the final deadline, which is September 30. And that hard talk, it tends to deliver a corrective move. And then what we tend to get is a last minute deal, which makes everyone look like they've got something they need it or they or they've, they've all they've all done a great job in terms of driving a deal. So if that's what's going to play out here, you can see, even if we think in terms of time that's going to this from a time horizon perspective, depending on how we trade here, this, this test could come in around the end of the month. And then we get that deal. And if we do get a deal that's received warmly by the markets then starting to take off, and we could see a big 10 figure move here. And what would that mean well to go back to the dollar dollar chart that we were just looking at. So we go inside with sterling, the correction sterling coming up to here, and then we get that waterfall move which would see sterling back up at that 141 level. So that makes sense. So we get sterling correcting as we get the correction in the dollar. We test the trend line support. If we, you know, if the buyers step in here we get a deal, then we can see a big move in sterling. And that would drive that the potential for that dollar decline that I've just talked about. So let's take a look at the Aussie. Aussies in a slightly different stage I think we're coming to the completion of its five wave here and I think we're going to see a bit of a pullback in terms of the Aussie, which again would broadly coincide with the pullback that I anticipate we'll see in terms of the dollar and risk sentiment in general. I could still see one more high here in terms of the Aussie to test the equality objective at the 7460 level, but we're seeing a bit of weakness at the moment. If we take out the trend line support, then I'd say all bets are off there and I think we probably going to look at a move back down to test support towards the 6768 area. So I'm just mapping a potential Elliot wave scenario here that fits pretty nicely if I should have marked that one up here. Let me do that now. So we've got an end. We've got the major cycle and then we've got this final final leg here we've got one, two, three, four, and then we'll have this. It's either going to be our fifth or if we do get this final move then we can see this is our fourth and this is our fifth and really the trend line will define that for us. But certainly then I think we're coming into a tradeable high in terms of the Aussie and a correction. So really want to focus on how we trade as we come in to test this trend line in the Aussie. I'm short the Aussie at the moment. And finally, the S&P here posted this today as the as the chart here. I think we've got a pullback developing here in the S&P. This is a big broadening top pattern potentially developing. We have obviously we've got the seasonal factors driving the potential for a pullback, and then we've made this test third test of this trend line. We couldn't close above it yesterday and today we're seeing some weakness creeping. Like I said, if we get a close below 3527, then I think we're heading in in pretty short order down to 3400. But I don't think that's the end of this cycle necessarily we could then see one more high playouts and possibly just take out the highs of this triangle 36 into that 36 area before then we see a more meaningful pullback. But certainly I see a tradeable pullback developing in the S&P 500 and really want to pay attention to to where we close today and do we close back below this trend line with a tweezer top. And certainly if we've got an outside reversal, then I'd be happily short the S&P initially to retest that 3400 area, which, you know, it doesn't look anything massive on the chart, but it's, it's 120 points in the S&P and depending on your trade size, that's a meaningful sum of money. So keep an eye on that level in the S&P today 3527 and the potential for a for a tweezer top to develop in the S&P. Okay, let's look now just some of the near term opportunities. Sorry, I should have mentioned at the start guys. And once I've gone through the charts or the charts I'm looking at anyway, I'll open it up for questions and if you have a chart you want me to take a look at you can just type into the chat or you can raise your hand and like unmute your mic and you can speak to me if you want. So dollar index, trying to put in a low here, a tradeable low. We had this sending trend line support here and we had this bullish positive divergence and we've got that pin bar and we're trying to make a move here. So let's say if we can get something going, then we could see 9460 or the descending trend line resistance area, or if we if thinking again in terms of the fractal, we might it might be that we, you know, we're having another low. So if we just go back to that terms the boxes, you know, it could be that, you know, we're going to make one final push here down into the into the 91 area. So that at the moment we can only trade what we can what we see on the charts. And so at the moment we've got triple divergence and we've seen some buying step in and some short covering. Let's see if we've got a trend line here now coming in. So we're just testing this trend line if we get through there, that could be interesting we certainly can see that move higher. So if we can't hear we roll over, then we get that move down into the 91 29 area that I've just referenced, and then we'll reassess the price actions from trade there. So what we're seeing is trade I've got on at the moment, posted this as a trade of the day similar pattern obviously to the dollar index. The Swiss franc is a component of the dollar index. Not seeing it not seeing as much as a push higher here at the moment the reason for that is it's being pressured by the fact that we're seeing euro Swiss weakness because of the euro weakness we're seeing, but technically the trade still stands as an outside reversal, we're looking at prior to prior days ranges bullish divergence psychic indicators just trying to tip bullish here, and we're battling at the moment with with this trend line, and looking to see really if we can get a close above there. And that's actually said that could set up a move then to test this 93 55 mostly 60 area prior breakdown point is what I'm looking at euro. So from from this pin bar reversal with the triple again triple divergence developed. And what I'm looking for here in the euro like I was just talking about in terms of the, the setup the fractal setup, we can get a test into this trend line here at the 1716. I certainly want to pay attention to how we trade here, because if we hold this area, and we get some bullish reversal patterns, then I see the, certainly see the scope for us to make that next leg higher. So before we see a more meaningful corrections so this is the type of pattern I've been talking about. Up into the trend line from there, and then we can see something, something more significant develop in terms of in terms of the euro dollar, again before that next significant make high leg higher. So if we're watching how we trade here. If we get into this area if we get a bullish reversal pattern, then certainly I'd consider reversing my current short position, and I'd be talking 122 as the next leg to the upside. Euro yen posted this one today as chart of the day, I was looking for the trend line to break it maybe we're not that's not going to happen now. We're going to wait for the candle closes price confirmation before getting in. But if we hold here, then we could be back up here like so. And what will we get well we'd have the third test of the ascending trend line could be an ending diagonal type pattern here. So we've got significant divergence down here in play, which is like, which is what we like to see so only move up into this 127 50 with various reversal patterns. Again, I think that will be a shorting opportunity, and we could have a nice pullback looking at these symmetric swing areas. So bring us back into these prior highs here at the 122 50 zone will be my my objective if if the pattern plays out. So this type of move. Sterling I'll see is another one that I've got on at the moment posted this charts in the chart here or trade the day, but I see the potential for an inverse head and shoulders here bags of divergence as we made that last low. What I'm looking for is just a corrected pattern simple ABCD or an ABC if you're into a wave. But again, I mean if you if you're not in this training you want to take a look at it this certainly opportunity to get rid of this. Certainly opportunity to to put a long position on through that 182 35 handle get a nice nice risk reward 181 49 10s of a stop and the target is up here it's 173 so if you if you're interested in that trade those are the type of premises I'd be looking at using the Aussie like I say short the Aussie at the moment. A little tweezer top up here at the top. Again we had triple divergence, we kind of just taken out the ending diagonal job oftentimes happens where they just run the stops and then reverse it. And you can see now. Certainly scope down to the 72 area where again, going back to that for going back to the cycle that I identified, you know, this could be where we we stall out for a final run at 75 before then making a more significant roll over but if the if these watching the S&P, if the S&P starts to make a move to the downside here or take the Aussie with it. And so, so I'm happy to hold short positions for now in the Aussie. Another one I'm looking at for this evening is the Kiwi, we got that third test of the ascending trend line resistance. We're getting potentially going to see a close here below the near term volume wise average price which is a signal for me and what have we got well triple divergence. We've got the RSI stochastic rolling over from extreme levels. So again, you know, looking here, you could be looking at 6710 as an entry depending upon where we close. We're looking down at 6550 in quite short order, you know, relatively tight stuff above the price cycle highs there. And last couple of it. Yeah, copper, and this could be driving these commodity trades at the moment we're seeing copper roll over a bit here. Again divergence, we're into into this sending trend line resistance. As you can see, we can have this type of ending diagonal pattern. Obviously pay attention to the 290 level if we see follow through below the weekly pivot here down to 290. That could be support and it'll be the fourth test and more often than not we get a fourth test of a trend line it will, it will erode it and it will break down. So I mean we could be again thinking in terms of opportunity, it could be that we're starting to see the potential for a more meaningful correction in copper here and if we see that in copper. Then we can think in terms of the other risk markets and what the potential can be in terms of corrective moves. So the S&P just holding at this tweezer top at the moment, not not seeing anything meaningful yet to get excited like I say certainly want to see a close below the VWAP 3534 and then I see the potential for a 34 test as the next logical on the downside but it's going to be all about where we close as always so pay attention to that. NASDAQ right up into the top of its range as well and we're starting to see the potential for pullback here and we're at extreme levels in terms of the psych indicator as well. So the again scope for a pullback here in terms of risk markets. Arnold Gold. Okay, let's just take a look at Gold. Yeah I mean Gold's in a complex but what appears to be a complex correction. I did mention this before. So whilst we hold this swing high here, whilst we hold 2013, I see 1804 as the confluent downside target. You can see 1804 to 1821. And we, you know, we could, it could be that we do this. You know that we that we retest that area. But where you get this sharp decline on the prior corrective move, it makes the likelihood of the next corrective move to be a bit more complex. So tougher to trade in general. If you can identify the key potential areas then there are opportunities but certainly versus this 2014 downside objective is 1821 to 1804. And then again from there, I mean, you know, Gold could once again be off to the races. So I'm not, I'm not saying that this is, this is the end of it for Gold but certainly we're in a what appears to be a complex correction at the moment that has very confident downside objectives that makes sense Arnold. Okay, so those are the charts and the trades that I'm in and how I'm looking at the markets at the moment that see the potential for a dollar correction. And if that's going to play out then, and I, again, you should see a pullback in some of these majors which are ultimately going to be what I think will be buying opportunities. And I, like I say, I see more dollar weakness ahead. Certainly if you think in terms of our, our fractal pattern and where the big opportunity is I think it's going to be the next. Once we get through this corrective period, the next leg down is going to be a meaningful, a meaningful one in terms of the dollar index to my mind. Does anyone have a chart they'd like me to take a look at that, that I haven't covered or any question about anything else I talked about today. So type in the chat box, raise your hand or type in the Q&A multiple options here. I'll just give you just give it 30 seconds if, if you don't have a question equally if you type an end in the chat box that's useful for me so that I know that everyone's understood what we've been talking about. I mean, like I just said, I'm long the dollar Swiss at the moment. So let's quickly go back to the chart. So that's the pattern I'm looking at. But trust me, if we close back below this 9080 level today, then I'll be cutting that because I think we probably have another leg lower to go here. So I'm going to just stretch on the upside. But if we get a close above the trend line, then I see the opportunity for a move higher. So that makes sense Cameron. So you really want to pay attention to this this trend line here and certainly a close back through the VWAP at 9070 would be, would be a real warning sign. Any other questions. Okay, if there aren't any other questions, we will wrap this one up here and we will reconvene same time next week. Okay, thanks very much for your time and I hope that was helpful.