 Hello, everyone. Welcome to Options with Doug, streaming live daily on Bookmap Discord and the Bookmap YouTube channel at 1.30 p.m. Eastern Time. Before I get started, I need to go through the Disclosures. General Disclosure. All Bookmap Limited materials, information, and presentations are for educational purposes only. Excuse me, it should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations. Risk Disclosure. Trading futures, equities, and options involve substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. And my apologies, everyone. My computer has been randomly restarting and it restarted about five minutes before my presentation. So about 125, my computer restarted. I had to load up everything again, lost data in Bookmap. Bookmap takes some time to load all the data and get everything set up. So again, my apologies. It's about 1.45 p.m. now, so I'll go to 2.45 p.m. All right, so here's my contact information. The best way to get in touch with me is through Discord. My name on Discord is Doug P. Also in Bookmap Discord, the options-doug-chat channel is a great place to post questions and content related to the topics of this channel that I'll go through in just a moment. And also I'm on X, formerly known as Twitter. My name there is at Doug Plus. The focus of my presentation today and the focus of the options-doug-chat channel is options, order flow, the impact of options markets on stocks and futures, and the influence of market maker hedging flow on price action. I have a two-step process for trading and the first is planning. And I use positional analysis. I look at how traders and market makers are positioned in the options market and how those positions change from day to day to develop a thesis regarding the expected trading range and volatility for the day, as well as the directional bias. And the second step in my process is execution. And I look at real-time order flow in Bookmap and real-time market maker hedging flow and spot gamma hero to confirm my thesis. And for setups, and when I talk about setups today, I will be talking about setups in an underlying asset. Those setups can be taken with futures, shares of stock, or options. So for example, the S&P 500, setups can be taken with ES futures, SPY shares, SPY options, SPX options, or even ES futures. Questions and comments are welcome. And I will be watching both the options-dug chat channel and Discord, as well as the chat and YouTube for your questions and comments. So please feel free to post, and I'll do my best to answer your questions. And again, thank you very much for your understanding for my technical problem today. So I'll go a full hour from 1.45 to 2.45 today. So thanks again, my apologies. All right, my agenda for today. First of all, I want to go over news items, economic data events for the week, for today and for the rest of the week. Then I'll go through my positional analysis. Then I'll review some setups from this morning. And then we'll take a look at the live market. And when I get to the live market, if anyone has any stocks they want me to take a look at, please let me know, and I'll be glad to do that. All right, let's get started. News items, GDP, I'm sorry, Durable Goods orders came out this morning. They were greater than expected, also greater than the previous report. So Durable Goods orders came out this morning better than expected. And then for the rest of the week, the GDP report comes out tomorrow at 8.30 a.m. eastern time. And then on Friday, the PCE data, economic data, PCE data, comes out at 8.30 a.m. eastern time. That is also the end of the quarter, end of the month, and the JPMorgan collar roll takes place. And right now the JPMorgan put strike is at 42.10, that's definitely in play. We'll take a look at that. And also consumer sentiment comes out on Friday at 10 a.m. All right, so that is the economic data for the week. Now let's get started with positional analysis. I'm going to start with ESB 500. So this is ES Futures in Bookmap. And before I take a closer look at this chart, I want to take a look at a larger time frame. So this is the SPX in Thinkorswim and a 30-day one-hour chart. And I have highlighted the August expiration and then the September monthly expiration, the September 15th expiration, call-dominated expiration, and the downtrend begin then and still continues. And that was a call-dominated expiration as those calls expired, the calls that were stabilizing and supporting the market expired, and now the market is moving lower, SPX moving lower, and the downtrend continues. All right, let me point out some levels on this chart. First of all, the dash purple lines are showing the lower and upper weekly expected move. And it looks like SPX is trading just above the lower weekly expected move. And that is a one-standard deviation move. So 68% of the time, the SPX should trade within that range for the week. Then the dash blue lines are showing the lower and upper daily expected move. And it looks like SPX is also trading right down to that lower daily expected move. Again, a one-standard deviation, 68% of the time, SPX should remain within that range. There are also some spot gamma levels on this chart. These are proprietary spot gamma levels, provided to spot gamma subscribers, and they are gamma-weighted open interest. And let me point out the key daily levels. First of all, here's the put wall at 4,200 today. So that level did move lower. It seemed to have stabilized at 4,300 for the last few days. So now that level has moved lower. That a spot gamma's put wall, the strike with the largest net, negative gamma, can be expected to act as support. So that is the potential floor. And that level did, again, move lower from yesterday. And that is bearish. Alright, the next level up is the absolute gamma strike at 4,300. That's the strike with the largest absolute, positive, and negative gamma. That level also moved lower from 4,400 yesterday. So that's also bearish. Then just above that is the volatility trigger at 4,360. That a spot gamma's proprietary gamma flip level. Below that level, market makers position on the gamma curve is negative. In a negative gamma environment, market makers have to trade with price to hedge their delta exposure. And that tends to enhance or increase volatility, leading to larger range trading days. And more trend days rather than range days. So SPX is trading well below its volatility trigger. And then finally, the call wall moved up to 4,600 from 4,500 yesterday. And that is well out of play. So not in range, not in play. Alright, so the potential floor at 4,200. Again, that level moved lower. And potential ceiling at 4,600 with the most gamma concentrated at the 4,300 level. Alright, so those are the levels, the range of levels for the S&P 500 SPX. Let's take a look at a shorter time frame. This is SPX for today in a one day, one minute chart. Here this combo L3 level is the only gamma level in play for today. And then it looks like SPX traded right down to the lower daily expected move, shown with the dashed blue line and found support there, at least temporarily. And notice this has been a very steady, orderly downtrend, just a grind lower today. After a gap up, then just a grind lower down to the lower daily expected move, just above the lower weekly expected move. Alright, let's take a look at, go back to book map. And before that, well let me focus on this chart and then I want to take a look at the spy chart. So there's some interesting information on the spy chart. So first of all, I have my cloud notes up here in this column and I'm showing spy level. So there's the spy 428 level that did act as resistance for the market opened and then, again before the market opened, that spy 428, that's a large gamma 2 level, acted as resistance. I'm also showing SPX levels on this chart. And there were a lot of support and resistance levels noted in spot gamma at AM Founders Note and I'm showing these levels on this chart. They were not in the not in the SPX charts that we just looked at. So here is the 4274 resistance level and then this 4265 support level and note this white line just above that is the spy 425 put wall that was supposed to act as resistance. That level did move lower from yesterday and that did not act as support and now it looks like so far the lowest level for SPX is the 4239 level. That was also noted as support and ES trading traded down below its lower daily expected move and now it looks like it's moving up. So I have spy levels on this chart, SPX levels, also the round number levels the zeros in the 50s for ES and note there is a difference in price between ES and SPX and today it's 39 points that's what I'm using. So ES minus SPX is 39 points. So for example this SPX 4250 level I'm showing that at ES 4289. Alright so SPX levels, spy levels 428 resistance and support yet to be determined today so far the 4239 level. Let's take a look at something else it's a little bit more clear on the spy chart the steady downtrend so I just have the round number levels on this chart. 428, price didn't quite make it up there just after 9am Eastern time move lower 427, pull back to 427 reverse lower pull back to 426 reverse lower pull back to 425 that's the put wall reverse lower so there have been just a steady downtrend I'll pull back to the round number levels price did not quite make make it back up to 425 slice right through 424 and also 423 let's go back to book map Alright so those are the levels in play for today primarily the spy round number levels acting as resistance support for the day yet to be determined I talked about shifts in levels for SPX put wall and absolute gamma strike shifted lower it's very bearish call wall shifted higher but not in play so that's I'm really not considering that and then for spy the put wall shifted lower that's bearish and also the volatility trigger shifted lower. Alright let's take a look at NASDAQ and this is NQ Futures in book map and I'm going to take a look at a QQQ chart first to isolate the QQQ levels in play for today so really only one gamma level here this L3 level and a combo L3 level that did act as resistance alright let's go take a look at NDX now we'll take a look at an NDX chart for completeness so NDX there's that combo level then there's this 14,500 level so two gamma levels in play for today combo level acted as resistance alright let's go to book map alright so another steady grind lower testing various levels point of control VWAP point of control is the purple line VWAP light blue line price just steadily trending lower making a series of lower highs and resistance at the 356 level QQQ356 and again support yet to be determined NQ trading looks like it traded down right to its lower daily expected move just above the lower weekly expected move also the 14,800 level that's NQ 14,800 level acting as resistance alright shifts and levels for the Nasdaq the NDX volatility trigger shifted slightly lower and for QQQ the volatility trigger shifted lower as well and also the absolute gamma strike from 360 to 350 alright so those levels in play for Nasdaq and ES bearish shifts lower and the S&P 500 as well as QQQ alright let's take a look at gamma notional now to see how market makers were positioned on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day so I'm looking at gamma notional for SPX spy and QQQ really don't pay much attention to NDX it's not significant compared to the others alright so this number these numbers are extremely negative SPX gamma notional listed market makers position on the gamma curve at the beginning of the day minus 1.459 billion for spy minus 2.90 billion and for QQQ minus 1.12 billion again extremely negative this is indicating that traders are long puts market makers are short puts and as price decreases implied volatility increases they have to sell futures and that works the other way around as price increases and implied volatility drops they can buy back short futures so let's take a look at the Vana model which illustrates this I'm going to start with SPX what this chart is showing is market makers delta notional on the vertical axis now that changes with changes in price shown on the horizontal axis there are two curves on this chart the light gray curve shows how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price only and then the purple curve adds implied volatility to the equation that's showing how market makers delta notional changes with changes in price and implied volatility and that change in delta with a change in implied volatility is the Vana effect and Vana is the second order of Greek let's see where SPX is trading right now so I have SPX right around 42, 46, 47 so that's right around here so what this chart is showing and by the way this chart is typical of an extremely negative gamma environment so the chart is showing if price increases and implied volatility drops market makers can buy back their short futures and that is a put Vana rally and I will be looking for that potentially on Friday a put Vana rally on the other hand if price decreases market makers delta notional will increase and they want to remain delta neutral always so they have to sell futures to hedge their delta exposure alright Derek glad you made it welcome I got a little bit of a late start today so I'm still going through my positional analysis alright let's take a look again this curve is very typical of an extremely negative gamma environment let's take a look at SPI SPI right now is trading right around 423 down below the put wall so that's right here similar to SPX if price continues to drop implied volatility increases market makers will need to sell futures on the other hand if price increases market makers can buy back short futures then finally let's take a look at QQQ trading right around 352 again on the very steep portion of the curve here negative gamma environment let's take a look at one other thing this is the SPX gamma model so when I talk about market makers position on the gamma curve this is what I'm talking about and what this chart is showing is a very sharp turn in the gamma model looks like the bottom there is about 4150 just below the put wall shown with the red line there what this is indicating is market makers at that point should be fully hedged so their contribution to any downtrend will be limited and will be fully hedged not necessarily having to trade to sell futures as price continues to drop so this is just a model but it's a good indication of a potential floor for the SPX so that's just something to keep in mind let's take a look at some charts now so my thesis for the day first of all based on the very negative gamma position looking for larger moves today wider training range, potential trend day and then my directional bias for the day was definitely bearish based on the shifts lower in the put walls for SPX and spy and also the shift lower absolute gamma strike for SPX and QQQ so bearish thesis for today let's take a look at some setups I'm going to start with the SMB500 this chart is showing the options trades so it's showing options trades and market maker hedging activity the chart is showing the white line for SPX that's SPX price the purple line is the hero signal for SPX real time options this is showing a combined signal for SPX, spy, XSP and ES futures so if you're trading any form of the SMB500 this is the signal that you want to take a look at so again this is showing price for SPX and options trades for a combined signal SPX, spy, XSP and ES futures let's zoom in on this chart this is the cash open at 9.30 am Eastern time and really after about 10.30 the hero signal has been trending down traders taking negative delta positions so net for the day that is negative delta let's see what traders are doing alright so the rising orange line and the positive notional value on the right side here does indicate that traders are buying calls today and that has been so that's actually right around 2 billion so they were more aggressively buying calls right at the open and then that activity has somewhat leveled off until it's finally sloping down so that call buying activity has slowly leveled off on the other hand they have been steadily buying puts all day so again they're buying calls that's shown by the the orange rising orange line and the positive notional value and they're also buying puts shown by the following blue line and the negative notional value there and put buyers are more aggressive than call buyers so net for the day the notional value for the hero signal is negative so net for the day traders are taking negative delta positions so that's the S&B 500 let's go take a look at book map let's go back to the S&B 500 alright so as a consequence of my restart right before my session I lost all MBO data so that is the stops in the icebergs all of that is not MBO data is not saved, book map does not save that data so when I had to restart book map all that data was gone so I don't have MBO data for the time before 1.30pm right around 1.30pm so that will limit my ability to interpret order flow in book map so we'll kind of play it like Bruce today he's the director of education at book map and he just focuses on primarily order flow, volume dots, liquidity order book so as I talked about before this has been a very steady down trend with just a series of pull backs primarily to the spy round number levels around there so we know that traders have been taking negative delta positions they've been buying puts all day so the idea was just to sell pull backs there's one there the VWAP point of control also round number levels VWAP that's shown by the blue line there and then now price is trading down below VWAP pull backs somewhat of a shift to bearish order flow you can see the shift the green dots on the moves up that's showing market buy minus sell orders then sell orders and then as price starts to move lower the aggressive sellers come in that's shown by the magenta volume dots so again steady grind lower clear pull back entries so that's the SB500 let's take a look at NASDAQ so again my MBO data started just after 1.30 pm eastern time and before that I do have cumulative volume delta so that has been dropping lower for NASDAQ for NASDAQ same thing pull backs aggressive sellers start to come in pull back to VWAP this time price didn't make it to VWAP aggressive buyers on the way up and the order flow shifts bearish order flow shifts bearish price moves lower again it looks like finding support at the lower daily expected move this appears to be a slightly higher low let's see what options traders are doing and slow to sorry I'll get to meta in a few minutes let me wrap up with the SB500 and NASDAQ here so what we can see with NASDAQ with the startup of the MBO data again this is some larger traders are coming in and buying with iceberg orders that's shown by the rising light blue line there so for example that's 345 contracts three different executions let's see what options traders are doing in NASDAQ alright so just like the SB500 this is a combined signal for NDX and QQQ significant contributions from QQQ but their NDX does have some contribution to this so we'll take a look at the total signal let's zoom in on this so the first thing I want to focus on was very clear let's zoom in very clear divergent short in the morning so what this is showing is traders were taking negative delta positions from the open and price moved up and right around 940 that was the short 945 so a divergent short in the morning let's go take a look at book map let's zoom in alright so here at 945 it looks like NQ reverses lower up to up to 14,800 you can just tell by the steep steepness of that move all the green dots and then price moves lower as traders were taking negative delta positions so traders taking negative delta positions there's a stop run up to 800 and then aggressive sellers start to come in move price lower and you can see cumulative volume delta there moving lower that's shown by the dark blue line so that was a very clear read divergent short set up right around 945 a.m. eastern time alright let's take a look at some stocks actually let's go back to hero and see what options traders are doing now in 10 they started taking positive delta positions and that really did not have much impact on the market they gave up about 1230 so initially from the open taking negative delta positions then right around 1010 to 1230 attempted to move the market higher gave up started taking negative delta positions again let's just slice and dice this so up until about 1230 they were buying calls just a steady rise and the orange line indicating they were buying calls and then that activity they took their foot off the ass stopped right around 1230 again and they've also been buying puts all day so by the falling blue line the negative notional value here and net for the day this is almost zero minus 7.7 million so put buyers just very slightly more aggressive than call buyers now it's the other way around 2 million so it's that really put buyers call buyers pretty much evenly matched today in NASDAQ look at the SB500 again so now it looks like options traders are starting to come in and buy the dip we'll take a closer look at that in a few minutes so let's take a look at some stocks the first one I want to take a look at is AMD so AMD let's separate it I'll put some calls some buying calls in AMD showing by the rising orange line up until about 1040, 1045 and they take the foot off the gas and price starts to drop lower again so traders for the day are buying calls they're also buying puts call buyers more aggressive and drove the price up up until about 1030 let's go take a look at book map so in AMD here's the move higher let's zoom in on this in the morning note the bullish order flow a lot of green volume dots here showing aggressive buyers this is also a buy sweep I thought I'd turn that off for most stocks so anyway traders buying calls options traders as well as aggressive buyers here in AMD in the morning shown by the rising cumulative volume delta and price continues to rise until call buyers take their foot off the gas let's go back to hero alright let's take a look at meta see what options traders are doing Slow Desiree has been talking about a presentation is that right that started today announcement presentation so we'll take a look at meta so yeah some kind of event notice 300 is the key gamma strike 29750 the hedge wall and it appears that the 300 level the key gamma strike did act as resistance so price pretty much flat right at 300 level until the event started so it appears that the event probably started right around 1pm eastern time Slow Desiree maybe you can confirm that notice the flow alert here this may be difficult to see this is something new it has been in beta and finally was released to spot gamma subscribers on Monday this is indicating unusual hero activity and it looks like that would have been a good notice entry point for short so let's see what traders are doing alright so up until about 1pm options traders not doing much then they started buying puts showing by the falling blue line selling calls let's go take a look at book map so it looks like if Slow Desiree says the event started about 1 hour ago so that would be at 130 so it looks like the move lower started a little bit before that again remember 300 is the key gamma strike and apparently traders did not like what they heard notice all of the aggressive sellers coming in after about 11.30 shown by the magenta volume dots and then price dropped sharply lower below the 2.99 level it makes a straight drop down to 2.90 so Slow Desiree I hope you got some of that again remember 300 key gamma strike did act as resistance options traders started taking negative delta positions primarily selling calls and aggressive sellers were in there from around 11.30 on shown by the magenta volume dots alright let's take a look now at Microsoft go to hero and see what options traders have been doing alright so it looks like for meta price is rising but options traders are not taking this opportunity to to buy the dip so it looks like aggressive buyers in meta alright let's take a look at Microsoft alright notice 310 is the put wall 310 the put wall let's zoom in so this morning hero set up a divergence short traders are taking negative delta positions from the open price moves up sets up this short right here and it took a while but down to not quite the 310 put wall so that was the target the 310 put wall for a short let's go take a look at book map so here's Microsoft let's zoom in on this actually so price did finally make it to the 310 put wall so here's the short set up short entry as traders were taking negative delta positions so any time so anywhere between 313.50 and 313 with a target of the 310 put wall notice the high liquidity at that levels that level the heat map is showing the history of the limit orders in the order book so those are limit buy orders and this high liquidity often acts as a magnet for price so some traders came in and were able to front run that liquidity so they get their buy orders in but then price finally made it down to that level and it took some aggressive sellers to get it down to that level and now buyers have stepped in after a couple of tests to the 310 level the next I want to take a look at is Tesla nice steady down trend in Tesla today let's check hero see what options traders were doing Tesla very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action in Tesla today so right now it looks like right around 130 traders started taking positive delta positions and Tesla may be attempting to move higher 245 is the hedge wall looks like that did act as resistance today and then the put wall down well down below at 230 potential target for a continued move lower let's take a look at book map very bearish water flow to start the day a lot of aggressive sellers as well as options traders aggressive sellers and options traders taking negative delta positions pull back entries down to the liquidity first at 240 then at 235 again that high liquidity for a higher price stock at the zeros and the fives tends to act as a magnet for price and again remember 245 is the hedge wall here alright so good short setups and Microsoft Tesla and Meta today and long setup in the morning in AMD based on call buyers alright let's take a look at the back to the S&P 500 so maybe finding support at that 4239 level again that level was noted as support in the AM founders note and some aggressive buyers definitely coming in let's check VIX and see what the VIX is doing alright so VIX is making a sharp drop lower looks like breaking that up trend let's take a look at hero and see what options traders are doing so we'll go back to the S&P 500 let's zoom in on this alright so nice divergence long here options traders start taking positive delta positions at that 4239 level and price responds higher so overall for the day there's been a very strong correlation between options trades hedging flow and price action let's go back to book map and definitely a lot of aggressive buyers coming in there are sellers magenta volume dots exhaustion and then aggressive buyers start to come in shown by the shift from pink volume dots magenta volume dots exhaustion at that level and then green volume dots buy minus sell moving price sharply higher and this was driven by partially driven by buy stop orders as well shown by the rising yellow line as well as the small green dots here let's take a look at nasdaq sharp move higher as well so that's over 100 points higher in nasdaq I don't know was there some news did you see any news alright so I talked about this before the iceberg orders large traders coming in with iceberg orders when I was talking about nasdaq the levels in play so there's that 345 contracts three executions also shown by the rising light blue line there and a move from in queue 500 now heading up towards 750 if it can get past the 355 and 14 577 level let's see what options traders are doing there's to be 500 traders taking positive delta positions really no tone shift for the nasdaq alright slow to sorry says maybe vix dropping government shutdown news the news says us senate majority leader the senate will vote to keep the government open alright thank you very much slow to sorry thanks for the update that could be it Caleb says short covering ran out of supply also meta news alright so let's go back to book map so we know that this is pretty typical any rally that by stop orders are going to fuel the move higher and those are not significant numbers also that activity has leveled off let's take a look at the sb 500 so aggressive buyers definitely definitely coming in a lot of green volume dots rising cumulative volume delta yellow lines showing by stop orders again that's very typical of any any move higher is by stock orders help to fuel the move higher let's just see so sb 500 made it back to the 426 level heading straight up maybe toward the 427 level if it can get past 426 and one thing to keep in mind here is larger traders are fading this move with iceberg orders they used to hide their size as shown by the falling light blue line that's pretty typical large traders fade moves so they'll fade a move higher by selling with iceberg orders or fade a move lower by buying with iceberg orders so that's 1300 contracts 5 executions 350 this number is is large but not really that significant for the sb 500 350 contracts but it looks like the volume dots are getting smaller well now more stop orders so traders had their stops placed just above the 426 level that's 840 contracts let's go back to hero and see what traders are doing so NASDAQ options traders are starting to fade the move now let's take a look at the sb 500 so in the sb 500 they continue to take positive delta positions so if that continues that should help to fuel the move higher alright so really starting around 140-145 they started buying calls and selling puts so I've shifted to a 30 minute rolling window period so I'm just looking at the last 30 minutes of data instead of the full day of data alright let's just change that back so we can see again traders are buying calls and selling puts starting around 145 and so far it looks like that activity is continuing higher and ES heading toward the spy 427 level alright my time is up I want to thank everyone for watching again thank you for your understanding my technical difficulties I have not been able to figure out this problem yet these random restarts hopefully I'll get it solved soon thank you for your understanding thank you for watching thank you for your questions and comments today remember GDP out tomorrow at 8.30 am eastern time and we'll talk about it tomorrow afternoon so thanks again thanks for watching thanks for your questions and comments and I will see you tomorrow bye