 Hey everyone, happy new year. I'm actually recording this on Thursday, December 31st. So 2020 is in the books. I know a lot of people are happy about that with everything that happened. Let's take a look at the markets real quick, just kind of a year in review to kind of take a look at what happened this year. Starting with the S&P 500, and I have my chart set to a year to date percentage chart. So we can see at one point down in mid-March, the S&P was down over 32% and we closed the day up 15.29%. So what a rebound. Who would have thunk it when the market was down here in March after everything that was going on with unemployment, skyrocketing and everything that was going on with the health of our country and the economy overall. So that's the S&P. If we look at the NASDAQ, even better, I mean the NASDAQ at one point was down almost 24% ended the year up 45%. If we take a look at the Dow, not as good. DIA was down as much as 37% and closed up almost 6% on the year. The Russell small cap closed up 18% after being down 42-ish percent. If you take a look at some of these others, I mean look at what happened with the VIX if I go to just a one-year daily chart, VIX hit a high of 85.47. That's just a crazy number in the VIX after that spike during the COVID scare. And it wasn't only stocks that were up. I mean, if you look at silver, silver, let me get back to year-to-date percentage, silver up 46% on the year. Gold, GLD up 23% on the year. If you look at Natty gas, Natty gas, energy got hit pretty hard, right? Natural gas down 44%. If you look at oil, USO, that's not a good example because USO has that drag to it, but energy was definitely a lager. If we look at XLE, which is the energy ETF, you can see it finished down 37% for the year. Some of the international indices did not fare quite as well. If we look at the emerging markets index, the EM still closed up 12%. The EFA, which is the developed markets index, closed up 4% on the year. If you look at some of these individual countries, like EWZ, which is Brazil, down 23% for the year. EWW, which is Mexico, down about 7% on the year. Financials stayed somewhat weak, down 5% on the year, although they did, like most things, had a pretty decent rebound from the lows. Financials were down almost 44% at one point. And check out retail. XRT is the retail ETF. At one point was down 42%, closed up 40% for the year. I mean, what an astronomical run retail has had. If you look at real estate, not so well, down 7% for the year. FXI, which is the Chinese large cap, pretty flat, up 3.5% on the year. XLK technology, pretty similar to the NASDAQ, up about 40%. Biotech exploded, up 48%. If we look at XLV, which is healthcare, up 11%. Utilities, who cares about utilities? XLP, consumer staples, up about 8%. Brokerage up, or down 11% on the year. SMH, semiconductors, exploded up 51% for the year. So just some crazy moves in the market. And so I think it just goes to show that staying mechanical with your positions and adjusting and using probabilities and not getting caught up in what you anticipate is going to potentially happen. It's always good to have an assumption, but still continuing to stay mechanical pays off well. So what a crazy year. I do look forward to 2021. I think it's gonna be our best year yet with some of the strategies that we've implemented with some of our weekly double calendars and iron ducks and vertigos and some of our different strategies in the way that we're managing our portfolio, using Delta and everything else that we do at navigation trading. I'm just, I'm super excited for 2021. I'm super excited for you all to be along on this ride with me. I love having you all in the community. I love getting your feedback. Hopefully, navigation trading has made you a better trader and I know that you all as a community have made me a better trader as well. So I wanna thank you for that. And with that, let's jump into the alerts. So obviously a short and weak, no trading on Friday, but let's jump into Monday's alerts, which Monday was, what was Monday? Monday was the 28th. So let's go to the 28th, jump into the alerts. First alert was SPY. We did an opening trade in vertigo. So we already had one on and we added another one. So let's take a look at SPY in our vertigo trade. So it's not too far off from where we put it on. Price has moved up. So it's almost out of that little valley already. We're up about 50, 60 bucks on the trade at this point. If this thing continues higher into next week, we should book a nice profit. Obviously if it does stay in this little valley, we will close this out the day before expiration or somewhere around there. If we set our price slices back to the break even to give you an idea, we've still got less than a 16% probability that price will stay in this valley and we should book a profit. So unless we have some kind of collapse in the back week of the implied volatility, we should be in pretty good shape with that one and we'll continue to look to add additional vertigos into the next coming weeks. Next trade, closing trade, iron condor. So we closed out our iron condor at SPY. We had been managing and adjusting this one for quite a while. We got to a point where over 50% of back's profit on this piece of the trade, we ended up just closing it. We took a loss on the trade overall after all adjustments. Implied volatility was just too low to continue to keep extenderation on that. If we look at where implied volatility is, I mean, we were talking, when we closed this out, implied volatility is at about 14 or 12-ish. It's popped up a little bit today but it just doesn't make sense to continue to sell premium in that environment, especially when there's other opportunities available and that's the biggest thing. We will still sell premium when implied volatility is low. Keep in mind, the IV percentile and IV rank, that's based on the last year. Well, we've had astronomical levels of implied volatility this year. So even an even implied volatility, IV percentile of 26 is still pretty decent. You're still getting some decent premium in those options but compared to the rest of the year, it's low, right? So, but compared to 2019, it's still pretty high. But at this point, we've got other opportunities, other better trade setups going on and so we didn't need to force anything by continuing to extend duration on this SPY iron condor. So we went ahead and just closed it out. So hopefully that makes sense. Next trade was BABA. So we did an opening trade in BABA and here's a prime example of a good opportunity that presented itself. BABA had a big spike in implied volatility. So we sold an iron condor. Let's take a look at BABA first at the chart. I mean, look at this. We had this drop when China came out and said they were going to investigate BABA for a potential monopoly. The stock dropped about 15% and has since rebounded and since then implied volatility has also contracted which is what we wanted when we put it on. Now we're not up much at this point. We've only had it on for a few days but price is still well-centered and with that high spike in implied volatility we were able to get our range much bigger than we would have just putting it on the day before. So that's what it's all about. Getting those, selling those options when the IV spikes and those premiums and those options become rich we're able to not only collect more credit on the trade for a higher max profit but we're also able to widen our range that price can move around in. And so that's exactly what we're doing here in BABA. Next trade, Baidu. So we had some action in a couple different Chinese stocks. Baidu was the other one. I remember Alibaba is kind of like the Amazon of China. Baidu is kind of like the Google of China. And so in this one we put on a bullish call diagonal and I put a little video here in the alert because we don't have an official class on diagonals. However, what I have done since then is I went into our directional strategies class and I created a new section in that course. So if you haven't watched it, you can go back to the directional strategies course in your membership and I put two different videos. One is a long call diagonal, which is what we did here. I call that a bullish, but same thing, a long call diagonal. And then there's also one called a long put diagonal. So those are two new sections in that directional strategies course. You can go in there and freshen up on diagonals. So what we did here in Baidu, let me first go to a chart and show you, I had a questions about how did I know that this move was gonna happen? How did I, it seems I put this on right before we had this explosion to the upside. Well, of course that's not the case. Nobody knows what's gonna happen in the future. What I was looking at is just this initial push up. They made the announcement that they were getting into the electric vehicle market, the stock skyrocketed and then it just started to consolidate. Well, a lot of times what you'll see happen is if when you get a big push up, especially on some news like that and then it starts to consolidate, a lot of times you'll see another push, another extension of that move and that's exactly what happened. And so I wanted to put on something bullish. Didn't really want to use a vertical because of the downside risk if this thing did come down. So we used a diagonal where we're gonna have very little risk if this thing does tank, but we have a very big profit potential if this thing went up, which is exactly what happened. And so if we take a look at our diagonal, we've still got one contract on. We started with two, I closed out one today just so we could book profits, but I'm gonna leave this other one on into next week or potentially even the next week depending on where price is. But you can see on this trade, with just one contract, we've got $151 in risk. So obviously we started with two, so that was $302 in risk, but you can see with $150 a risk and we're currently at 230. So we're up over about 150% return on capital on this. So not only is it just a risk of 151, but that's all the capital you have to put up for this trade as well. So what I like about these is, and I've been trading a lot of these and we'll start to do more here in the alerts portfolio, but this gives you the ability to just use a little amount of capital, take a little bit of risk for a really sizable potential upside. And as I put in the alert, we're looking for 100 to 200% return on this. Well, we booked half of it and booked about 150% return on that one. And we'll hold this one to see if we can squeeze out even more profit. So good trade, and we'll look to do more directional stuff like that. You know, and we can do them on the downside as well. So we can reverse this. And so we have very little risk if price continues higher, where we have a lot of potential on the downside. So we've got a couple of trades that we use for that. We use verticals, we've got the bunker trade, which is really designed for that black swan type event, that really, really big downside. But these diagonals can be used for just kind of the normal cyclicality of the market and catching just some of these smaller down moves in the market. So we'll be doing some of that as well. So look for that. And that's one of the reasons I added to that course. So you could get kind of the criteria that we look at for setting up these trades. While we're here on Baidu, we did add another iron condor. Did this out in with 50 days to expiration. So with implied volatility still continuing to stay high, we wanted to sell some premium. And so we did that because the price is hanging out right here. We just put this on today. So we've, you know, just with two contracts, we've got a max profit of $552 on this and we'll manage this just like we do our other iron condors. Now we did have another one on when price it made that initial spike up, we were looking for price to consolidate. I was hoping it would consolidate maybe a little bit longer. So we put it on an iron condor back here and when it exploded higher, it busted through our upside break even. And so when that happened, we closed out the put vertical side, booked max profit on that. Now we're still left with the losing side with the call vertical side. And we'll hold this, you know, for a couple another week or so, you know, there's a chance obviously that price could come back down into range. And if that's the case, then we'll book a profit on that piece as well. But we've got, we've still got that call vertical side on of our January iron condor. Let me get the alerts back up here. All right. So SPX did an opening trade in an iron duck. With this one, we actually had two others on at that point. Whoops. We had a one day and we had one with eight days on. And we added this one with 15. Now we're one with one day expired the next day. We booked beak profit on that one. So we were just left with our eight day and then the one that we just put on. So let's take a look at both of those. Well, I'll talk about this while we're clicked on it. So this is a weekly double calendar that we put on today. You can see we're at about 60 bucks since we put that on this morning. And then our two iron ducks are right here. So let me check those and uncheck those. So here's our iron duck that expires on one seven. You can see if price stays right here or moves further up into next week, we'll have a very little chance of getting back into the duck head area. So we'll go ahead and book that. In fact, let me just set the price slices so I can show you exactly what that is. If we move this right up to the edge of the beak, see right now we've got about a 16.5% chance that price could still come back. So we'll give that over the weekend, but if we come back and price is still right here or higher, there's no reason to hold that on. There's just very little chance it'll get back to our max profit. So we'll book that and book the beak profit of in this case, 150 bucks. And then our other iron duck that I just mentioned from the alert was this one. And you can see price is still right here. We just put this on yesterday. So it hasn't moved much. So we'll continue to manage this as we do. Back to the alerts. Baidu, that was the closing adjusting. That's where we closed out the put vertical side of that iron condor in Baidu I already showed you. We did have another SPY vertigo. Price did, so if we look at just kind of the valley, price did move outside of our valley, but just a little bit. So we ended up closing that out. Booked is like under $100. So pretty small profit, but close that out. I didn't want to see the volatility collapse on the last day and take away our profit. So we just booked a small profit on that one. SPX iron duck, this is that one that expired that I mentioned. So we booked a beak profit on that. Baidu, this is where we closed half of that long call diagonal I just mentioned. And then here's that new iron condor in Baidu that I just mentioned on the platform as well. So I'm sorry, I'm jumping around a little bit here. And then lastly, here's the SPX weekly double calendar that I already showed you. This one we started out with eight days in the front, 11 in the back week. And so hopefully that'll stay in range and we book a nice profit on that one next Friday. Next Thursday or Friday, we'll be taking that one off. So those are all the alerts. Let's take a look at some of the other positions starting with ES. So this is one of our short delta positions. It's a long put vertical. Price is at a range. We need price to move back into range. We need price to move down to get back into range on that. Natty gas had a couple of good moves for us this week. Price is right here. We're up about over $1,700 since we did our last adjustment on this. And so if we can get a little bit more upside, that will certainly benefit. Natty gas has been on a pretty wild ride. As you can see, I mean, this thing's just been up and down and up. And so hopefully if we can create a little more upside in price, that'll definitely benefit that trade. Bonds doing well for us as well. Now this is down to 22 days to expiration. So I was gonna close it out today, but I figured we'd give it over the weekend, get hopefully a little bit more theta. And if price makes even just a little move higher, it'll move us back to center in bonds. And we will go ahead and close this one out. We're currently up about $1,200 since our last adjustment. If we can get up to about another 2,000, we'll book a nice profit on this trade overall after all adjustments. Apple, we are using this for some of that short delta. This is a long put vertical. You can see prices at a range need some downside to get back in there. Mentioned Bob, I mentioned Baidu, DE, John Deere, kind of a similar trade we've got for short delta. And again, you know, verticals are, you know, they are what they are. They're good for directional trades into adding short delta in your portfolio like we're doing. And I also like the diagonals where you're gonna have a little bit less risk on the downside with more potential profit on the upside. So we'll be doing some of those as well in both long and short direction. Same with DIA, price is just inside the range here. So we got a lot of range to the downside for some benefit there. Same with IWM, just outside range, another short delta play. And by the way, speaking of short delta, we are, we're less than one to one on our short delta versus our theta ratio. Just to kind of review how we look at that, we Baidu ate all of our positions to SPY. And that way it helps, you know, take apples and oranges and pineapples and bananas and make them all apples to apples so we can tell what our overall directional bias is of our portfolio. And then we look at that as a ratio compared to the theta. You know, a lot of our positions are, you know, premium selling theta gathering positions, theta positive positions. And so we wanna, based on the positions we have on, we'd like to keep a ratio of having a little bit of short delta versus our, and we compare that to our theta. So in this case, we're a little less than one to one on our short delta versus our theta. So we do have a little bit of a short bias in our portfolio, but not much. If we look at chart of the S and P, you know, this thing is just been kind of grinding higher. I still expect to see some more upside in the future. And so we're not loading up on short delta at this point. I really have a little bit more of an upside bias. However, even in the case where I think the market's gonna go up, I still keep some short delta. I still keep that for that protection. So if this thing does tank, we're gonna benefit from that, but yet we can still profit if this thing continues to climb higher. And so that's where we're at with our short delta. SMH, we've got a short strangle here. You can see we're pretty well centered up about $306 since we rolled this last. SPX, I mentioned our Iron Ducks. SPY, I mentioned Tesla, we've got an Iron Duck. So you see prices hanging out up here. We still got a little bit of a chance that price could get back to our duck head. That looked a little bit narrow, but so prices right here, expiration is one nine. So we've still got about a little less than 20% chance of it getting back to max profit. Similar to SPX, if this thing continues much higher into next week, we'll probably just book it, close it out and book that beak profit of $120. And then lastly, XLK, we've got this another short delta position, the long put vertical. And a lot of these are in January, so we'll be potentially rolling or closing these out into next week. So that's the plan. Those are the alerts. That's the portfolio. I hope everybody has a great, fantastic new year. Stay safe. Look for 2021 to be our best trading year yet. Can't wait for it. I'm excited. I'll see you all in the community. If you have any questions, let us know.