 So this is the paper that I've been working on with colleagues at in the research and impact assessment division of EFAT so we are looking at migration, demography and agri-food systems and this is the result of a workshop from CJIR and the ambition is to produce a book that looks at the future of agri-food systems. So what can we expect? What are the emerging trends in agri-food systems and how do they interact with other emerging trends around the world? So it's a global perspective to this topic. So the context of this paper is that we are thinking of the rural transformation process being shaped by evolving and changing agri-food systems. So on the one hand we see that rural employment is still like agri-food systems still employ a large share of people in developing countries which is not just the employment and farming but also non-farm jobs related to agriculture production and this leads to an increasing connection between rural and urban areas and the rural and urban sectors of the agriculture industry and there's a lot of documentation for some success stories, especially in some Asian countries and for other countries where these trends are only now starting to emerge it is still to be seen whether they can document the same success in the transformation process or yeah, what will be these emerging trends. So we are trying to give some insights or suggestions of what could be the emerging trends and at the same time these transformations are happening in time where the demographic structure is also changing around the world. So the rural population is expected to still be growing in some regions of the world and especially for the African region there's the talk about the youth bulge which draws a lot of attention to it with the discussion of what is happening with all these young people especially in rural areas and we also now want to add the question of okay what is the role in this with rural to urban migration and also the migration of especially this age group of youth. So just to give you an insight and what do we mean by agri-food systems as we are here more the coming from the migration research area. So agri-food system is a yeah the economic system that includes farming food and fiber manufacturing and the trade of the goods produced in this process and they are embedded in a changing economic system, the globalization system, technological change, urbanization that leads to also dietary change. So the idea of a changing agri-food system is that yeah, the change of dietary demand leads to change in more processed food being demanded and especially by urban population and then if you think of a domestic market of agri-food production that means that now the farmers do not directly sell their raw produced food to the consumer but actually there are many more intermediaries that then not only trade the food but also process it further and creating value added which then of course also adds to the context of the globalizing world where we have the question of okay, do you rely on your domestically produced food and develop a manufacturing sector domestically or do you rely more on imported food and these kind of yeah all these factors play play into the changing agri-food systems and what is important to keep in mind is that in developing countries they provide around 80% of the jobs due to the majority of employment still being in the farming and non-farming sector and The other important aspect is that they are bringing the rural and urban sector closer and closer together And I will talk about this a little bit more in a second. So what we try to do in this chapter is to on the one hand outline Conceptually the interactions between demographic changes rural urban migration and agri-food systems and then we use population data to try to project emerging trends in rural urban migration and also in relation to Changing in the rural transformation process. We're also discussing a little bit the the role of climate change and all these changes and Identify research and data gaps for further research and investment needs and the focus of the paper lies in developing countries So we only look at developed data from developed countries to to have a kind of comparison Yeah for this so the outline of the presentation to follow is that we I present briefly what the conceptual framework underlying our analysis Then the data we use and the methodology to to create these rural urban migration projections and I show you some graphs of the resulting projections and Discuss briefly the role of climate change and conclude if time allows and so the conceptual framework we are in is that traditionally the idea of rural urban migration is very much focused around the dichotomy of rural and urban areas and having push factors in the rural areas and the pole factors in the urban areas that then with Additional like development of more models also included factors such as land constraints or insurance constraints and in the urban sectors the possibilities of earning higher wages To diversify your income sources and and so on so What we are seeing now as emerging trends is that this dichotomy is actually diffusing so We still have of course push factors in the rural areas that now which are more and more discussed also relate to unemployment especially of youth and natural disasters climate change affecting the agriculture production process and in the urban areas the as pole factors we also can identify more the the better infrastructure and connectivity improved information so mobile phone subscriptions up through the roof and Also in developing countries so the the cost of moving to the urban area and the information costs are much lower than they used to be so that migration to and from rural areas is actually becoming Easier one would one this would suggest Additionally, we have the emergence of Mid-sized cities, so it's not so when I see we have the emergence of mid-sized cities It's not to say that they didn't exist before this is also about the attention of researchers to this topic that now Recently we have seen there's more and more attention towards mid-sized cities and towns what role they play Compared to just thinking of a rule hinterland and a metropolitan city We actually have these these centers in between that are important in the especially in the agri-food value chain and This implies that these these previous rule urban dichotomy between Food production in the rural area and consumption in the urban area is also shifting Yeah, kind of radiating more and more together and the value chains move along along yeah, but connecting rural and urban areas much more and This also implies for rural migration that we think less About this one direction in movement, but acknowledge much more that there's more circular migration rule rule migration seasonal temporary migration happening between these areas so for Giving you some trends in rural population youth population and rural urban migration We use the population data from the United Nations and So on the one hand we have rural urban population by age for the past 2035 years and We have population projections for the total population, but also by for just the rural population we have projections of population by age group and We have data on the life expectancy which we use for some Adjustments and to account for different fertility stages that countries are in and We also have data on agriculture productivity that we've used to look a little bit of how how migration rule urban migration trends relate to rural transformation So the country group things I will show you the grass in Focused now on the regional country groupings we do the same thing also by income group, but I've no focus on the regions So we have eastern central Africa West and southern Africa northern Africa Middle East Central Asia Asia and the Pacific and the lack and the other Countries, I will not show you any results now But yeah, that we had some data for them as well So this is just to give you an idea of what are the population projections of the UN For for these different regions for rule area So in the rule the rule population is expected to continue to increase in the African regions and It appears to have reached a peak already in the Asia and Pacific and Latin American Caribbean regions So there it's expected to decline these countries these regions are more and more urbanized and In Mina and Central Asia it appears that it's still increasing but will Reach a peak around 2040 and then slowly also decline. So this is to keep in the back of your mind and The youth population similarly is expected to still yeah to grow in eastern southern Africa Western Central Africa but it is expected to reach a peak around 2020 in the Asian and Latin American regions and Whereas in Mina and Central Asia, it's also expected to increase and eventually to its end of the projection Possibly reaching a peak So there is definitely this well documented Expectation of having a larger and youth share in in the African regions So now we want to look at what do we think based on this data? What happens to rule urban migration rates and rule urban youth migration rights and this methodology is a server ratio survival racial method It is actually you can think of it as a kind of population accounting exercise Let's say so you you think of a closed country so you have total population you have the rural areas and you have the urban areas and You you have the total population data and projected up to 2050 And then you are thinking okay, you can you can compute how many people what is the rate at which people survive in In five year steps. So the population in 2005 minus the population in 2000 Relative to the population in the base year 2000 at which rate do people survive to the next five year period and then you say okay in the we know that Urban in urban areas people live longer and in rural areas the mortality rates are higher Therefore the survival rate in rural areas is expected to be lower so we use this Assumption to compute For rural areas starting with the rural population that we have observed in the data up to 2015 And we can then compute with this survival rate How many people we expect to live in rural areas and in 2020 and then compared to the projected rural population of the UN data and if this projected If the if the population the rural population that we observe and that that we Predict it with the survival rate are different than these people must have moved somewhere and based on our assumptions They must have moved to the urban area. So Of course, this is based on the strong assumptions that There's no international migration directly from rural areas So it is assuming people move from rural areas to urban areas and then they can move further to international destinations and this rate that we compute also Does not account or it's not able to differentiate between rural urban migration and urban reclassification So when a rural area is classified five years later as urban area because Population size in this area was growing. So the administrators decided this this should now be classified as urban So what the projections that we will show you you can on the one hand? You can see as rural urban migration rates As well as urbanization rates in these regions So if you believe our assumption you can say this is all migration rate if you're more skeptical Then you can think okay a lot of this will reflect that actually these areas these regions are urbanizing more and for youth migrants We do the same procedure only that we have to account for the difference In fertility transition stages because you saw that the youth population is expected to stay increased in some regions Whereas in other regions, it's expected to decline. So we adjust for that and in order to do the projections for this so the rule urban migration trends that we get from our analysis is that overall across the world and It is expected to decline and kind of be fairly stable around five percent rate whereas in the eastern southern African regions rural Urban migration is expected to increase in the western and central African region it is fairly stable and Whereas in the other regions, you can see the kind of decline and Flattening of the migration rate But what is important to to note here is that eastern and southern African regions Start at a very at a much lower migration rate So all these regions seem to somehow converge if we can say so at a migration rate of around five percent and If we look at this for the youth migration and we can see that Invest in central Africa where the overall migration rate was expected to stay fairly stable Youth migration rate is actually expected to increase and the same so for eastern southern Africa Whereas in the other regions it is again either declining or in the Asia and Pacific It is slightly increasing and then flattening. So we really see a specific trend for for the African regions so Then we now try to connect this to the change and in the agri-food system and they are one of the big challenges so far for us was that and We could not find a good indicator or like a lot of data to document in a global comparison a global picture What's going on? With these trends so we tried to first look at the evidence for changing agri-food systems in specific countries and There is some evidence that Proximity to cities is associated with higher agriculture production for from a study in Ethiopia and and there's another like a equilibrium model exercise looking at investments in rural areas compared to urban areas and how that affects the agriculture GDP growth and they found that for a country that is like for the country Uganda where Agri-processing sector is actually very large and the investment Or larger urbanization larger rural urban migration is related to faster agriculture GDP growth So there you see exactly these kind of predictions of rural transformation process in this study and then there's another and there's other strand of studies that looks at what can be expect what the employment potential of this agri-foods sector is to employ to employ a rule the rural population and It says that the farming share of employment is expected to decline and the agri-food system and Non-farming sector is rapidly growing and expected to continue to rapidly grow However, the actual share of employment of the sector is still very low So they predicted I think it was up to 2030 a share of twelve percent in the non-farming employment So it's still a relatively Small share even though it has a potential of being rapidly growing So it's kind of a there's a potential there, but it's not Not that large that it could Give the opportunities for for everyone as alternative to farming And then we looked at the rural transformation process. So we define Countries that had an average annual growth rate of agricultural productivity above the regional average for the period from 1990 to 2014 as fast rural transformers and in contrast those that were growing slower than the regional average they were slow transformers and based on this category We plot the migration rate the for for the period from 1985 to 2050 and we see a very clear pattern of kind of the rural transformation process seems to be Going hand-in-hand with increasing fast increasing rural urban migration rate Which is expected kind of happen for those countries that have been slowly transforming I quickly Skip this so climate change. We also reviewed as a short summary We reviewed the evidence that exists on impacts of climate change on migration But it is still very thin and not too clear. So one thing that we could that we did find is that and There is this there's some evidence that Increase in temperature would increase International as well as rural urban migration, especially when countries are highly agriculture dependent and we also reflected on the role of medium-sized cities that on the one hand are expected to be and more vulnerable to extreme events because they have Not as good as an infrastructure as as bigger cities But at the same time they offer the potential to reduce the vulnerability and to increase the Resilience for farmers by offering more opportunities. So we definitely say there is a big gap still for for more evidence to be produced and Maybe as one of the main messages so far is that we from the projections we want to definitely stress the point that rural migration is not a is not a phenomenon that is expected to disappear and we see some sort of pattern of convergence and It also seems to be a process accompanying the process of rural transformation and which is which has to be shaped by policymakers and We also emphasize the gap in research and evidence for seasonal migration and then of course we acknowledge our gap in the research of addressing the reclassification of rural to urban areas and Want to investigate more the impacts of climate change on youth migration. Thank you