 Okay, welcome to the session on economic outlook for Latin America. This will be a bilingual session. The panelists and myself will be speaking in whatever language we feel are comfortable in, so I will continue in English, but panelists will be replying either in English or Spanish. Historic is an overused word, especially by journalists, but truly this is a historic juncture for Latin America. The Chinese-driven commodity cycle was historically one of the largest ever, if not the largest, and that's drawn to a close. Interest rates globally are at historic lows. Trade is, patterns of trade or at least the rhetoric surrounding patterns of trade is changing. After at least a couple of decades going in the other direction, protectionism in Latin America is receding and possibly growing in the states and Europe. We've had a water anti-corruption drive in Brazil, which has spread around the rest of the country, and I'd argue that's a potentially historic change. And we also have some major elections in 2018 in Brazil, Mexico, hopefully in Venezuela, also in Colombia, and potentially even Raul Castro will step down. So all of these elections are important in their own right, and usually in runs-up to elections in Latin America, decisionally there's been an important economic effect. I've got a very distinguished panel here, and we're going to do a tour of the world and of the region and of several countries. And here on my right, Nicholas Jovnik, economy minister of Argentina, and formerly had a large role in the private sector. Guillermo Ortiz, former central bank governor of Mexico, former finance minister of Mexico, and currently chairman for BTG Pactual outside of Latin America, although it's a Brazilian bank, Guillermo is always going to offer to talk about Brazil, as we're missing economically half the continent on this panel. David Lipton, first managing director of the International Monetary Fund, and I think the first time a senior IMF official has been in Argentina since 2007. So welcome back and another sign of how Argentina has changed. Alicia Barsena, who is executive secretary of the Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean for 10 years, and Lucido de la Guardia, economy minister of Panama, finance minister of Panama with extensive experience in capital markets and finance and banking. So David, perhaps we could start with you, and just in a few short words, if that's possible, give your view of how you see Latin America in 2017, after a fairly miserable year last year, and how you see it fitting into the rest of the world. Well, it's a pleasure to be here. We see global growth momentum picking up, and it's not something that just started in the last month or two, but really for about six or seven months, industrial production has been picking up around the world very broadly. So we have been projecting higher growth this year than last, higher growth next year than this. The region, of course, had a very bad year in 2016, but it's pulling out of recession. And I think that this gives the region a chance to make important strides with the global economy more vibrant and with a turnaround in most countries in Latin America. There's its time, in essence, to try to make the most of an opportunity. Now, it's a situation in the world, but also for Latin America that's quite risky. We see upside and downside risks still. Obviously the uncertainties around the policies of the new U.S. administration remain very large uncertainties, very pertinent for this continent. Surely everyone in the continent will have to deal with whatever policy decisions are made in Washington. But I think in the face of that uncertainty, what's most important for Latin America is that it do all the things that countries do what they can domestically to get their economies moving and to strengthen growth over the long term. While there's short-run recovery, we see potential growth for the region really quite modest, maybe 2.5 to 2.7 percent or so. So countries improving their own investment environments, trying to find ways to boost potential growth, but also countries working together in essence to hedge against whatever might happen in the world economy to build greater links between countries, more intraragional trade. Our analysis shows that if the region has trade links that are more like those in other regions among emerging market countries, that there could be a substantial boost to growth. Okay, so we're really into the sort of hard-scrabble micro-structural reforms Alicia, I want to turn to you. The region sailed basically through the global financial crisis. It had some fiscal space, accelerated spending. That fiscal space is now constrained. So what can a government do in terms of pulling financial levers, be it monetary or fiscal, to propel growth? What ammunition is left? I will speak in Spanish, and I would like to say that first of all, I believe expectations for this year are much more positive than for last year. At least the region is going back to positive growth rates after two years worth of contraction. Our expectation is 1.3 percent, and I believe the region has faced cautiously what I believe is a very uncertain international context. So when you ask what can governments do, first of all, I believe they can make a good assessment of what's going on internationally to understand how things are going. And I would like to reflect on how the region stands facing this and certain international contexts. First of all, we have relatively curbed inflation in the region around 8.3 percent on average, of course, Mexico and Central America with much lower inflation levels than South America and, of course, excluding Venezuela from the average. A current account deficit that's also in curb of 2.2 percent on average, I would say, international reserves that have soared or gone up curiously and sovereign risk has improved as well, I believe, which opens up options for foreign funding, which has been one of the exits our region has found. Obviously, public spending has also increased and precisely what I think the region hasn't been able to underpin enough and needs to refocus on is investments. It's been 11 consecutive quarters of falling investments and perhaps it was investments that have hitched some of the economies in the region, such as in the case of Colombia. So structural gaps persist that are very complex and diverse and very difficult to put in the same basket. This region is difficult to analyze as a whole because we have different realities. Now, I think it's most important to note that today's uncertainty is especially in connection to trade. Actually, there is great uncertainty and some truths we know that TTP is not working, TTIP is not working either, that there will be a revision of free trade agreements coupled with the fact that trade was doing very badly already in our region in 2016 exports fell to minus 5% or by minus 5% and they completed a four-year term of consecutive contraction in 2015. They fell by 14% roughly. So speaking about intra-regional trade in our region, we haven't been able to leverage intra-regional trade. Notice that three or four years ago, intra-regional trade was around 19% whereas now it's 16%. We've fallen by three percentage points. Why? Mercosur, why? Central America because Chinese products got their minister. So that Central America integration, which was the most powerful one, the most significant one collapsed because China became a player. Now, the new approval of the TTP benefits Central America to a degree in a way because Vietnam was one of the economies that was going to compete strongly against some Central American economies. So to your questions, what can countries do now? I believe on the one hand assess their fiscal space. Carefully, I believe there is reduced fiscal space but I need to say something that's quite important. Namely, more than 14 countries in the region have undergone tax reforms. Mexico, Chile, so these tax reforms have been very important. I know the private sector doesn't like to hear about tax reforms or raising taxes but actually they have offset part or the in part the drop of non-tax revenue and that has been important for some countries. So this year we expect there will be a rebound in raw materials especially hydrocarbons and minerals and we expect better times ahead. But there's another interesting point. We need to have this higher tax burden be used appropriately and an interesting point the minister will be telling us about is tax evasion. We have assessed tax evasion in Latin America and got to the point where tax evasion now or in 2015 which is our last accurate measurement and in 2016 we confirmed the figure represents 6.7% of the GDP some $340 billion only worth of evasion of income tax and VAT in addition to illicit flows. The whitewashing of $110 billion in Argentina the regularization is very important and recovering 15% in terms of tax revenues I don't know the minister will tell us in your time but these are very specific measures to increase the tax space. So many times before and it would be ungenerous to say nothing has changed in Latin America but there's still a long way to go and this is a very familiar list of less tax evasion more structural reforms and more inter-regional trade and as a Brazilian trade minister was saying earlier exports from the region fell to the rest of the world but exports within the region fell almost three times as much and a lot of that which is to do with Brazil's recession one can only assume. Guillermo one has a sense of Latin America after two very difficult years sort of lying on the bed gets up in 2016 this year only to find oh my god now we've got more international uncertainty than we could ever imagine and that's particularly true in Mexico and I wondered if you could give us your view of how you see Mexico in particular and the uncertainty with the United States and perhaps your view about how you see Brazil going ahead for the next year. Following Alicia I will also speak in Spanish. As you well pointed out and I think the word that best describes the economic environment not only in the region but globally is uncertainty and in the particular case of Mexico we need to remember that it took one generation to Mexico to go from a closed economy to an open one one that is integrated in world trade vertically with North America in the industrial sector but also the evolution of the bilateral relations with the US have been very important for this generation in the past 25 years going from a confrontational relationship with the US where we were members of the non-aligned group we never broke ties with Cuba we always voted against the US in the UN the relationship has evolved to become a trusted business partner with the US so the shock to Mexico from the American election and all the rhetoric prior to the election during the campaign regarding Mexico was a traumatic event our friends to the North weren't as good friends as we were that's right you never expected an ally a partner to turn their back on you the way they did so why was Mexico such an easy target for Mr. Trump because the narrative in very general terms is that the US is declining as a result of globalization trade migration which has stolen jobs and increased insecurity so Mexico check check check in all these boxes so it figures so the election was highly disruptive for Mexico the exchange rate depreciated significantly markets reacted very negatively and all economists lowered their expectations of growth significantly so where are we standing today three months afterwards three months after the election I believe we are at a much better than a stance why because those in charge of the bilateral agenda on matters of trade and regarding security migration drug trafficking weapons which is a dimension that is equally important to trade in bilateral relations there are experienced people who know the country very well and apparently those preliminary rounds are being dealt with appropriately for instance NAFTA at the end of the day the revision of the free trade agreement for North America may end up being reasonable and even better than before we could go into the details but that's how it looks today and on the security front the US finds it extremely important to have Mexico's cooperation there's a long lasting relationship between intelligence services of the United States and Mexico so that's doing well because those in charge in Mexico are two generals who know the issue very well this is also translated into a behavior of the economy in the first quarter being much better than expected the economy grew by 3% in January the quarterly growth must stand more or less at that rate in annualized terms so looking ahead over the next few months unless there are twitters and the mood changes I don't know we will probably witness a much more normal relationship a restored relationship towards the end in the case of Mexico although there's always the uncertainty in Brazil I think something very significant is happening first of all Brazil is exiting the worst recession in its history and this year the Brazilian economy or I'm sorry last year fell 3.6% roughly and for this year the forecast is of 0.7% growth it's modest but the swing from minus 3.6 to 3 is huge in Sao Paulo a very wise comment last year when Dilma Rousseff was impeached he said well in terms of the economy the downside now is capped the question is how big is the upside and at the moment it's looking to be quite small it's not to say it's insignificant do you think President Temer will deliver Brazil in 2018 with a stabilized economy and some progress on the fiscal branch I believe there is a high probability of this happening the most important topic from the medium term is to ensure sustainability of public finance and I think Mr. Temer is surrounded with a good team has performed an important adjustment has put a cap on total spending in real terms and is now reforming social security indexing pension system and Mr. Temer can move politically to get the votes that's the most important thing and if he does this the other very important aspect is that inflation is dropping significantly this year Brazil will have lower inflation than Mexico which hadn't happened in I don't know how many years CC yes I can't remember when the last time that happened was but inflation in Brazil must be close to 4.5 or 4.7% and in Mexico it will be over 5% so this gives the central bank the possibility of bringing down interest rates which have a fiscal impact and have an important impact on economic activity because the monetary stimulus coming from reducing or lowering interest rates will make the economy recover a little in 2017 but the stimulus for 2018 will be very strong so I think Brazil chose modest growth this year but next year if things, if it does reasonably well might surprise us with a far higher growth Nicolas our host thank you thank you for organizing this very important event space to spend money to raise government debt and push it into the economy and indeed it's still running a budget deficit and inflation is coming down give us your sense of how you see the next year well Argentina Argentina inherited an economy with enormous problems a stagnant economy with many regulations many exchange rates, capital controls, prohibitions of all kinds a very high fiscal deficit isolation from the world, default we had no official statistics and in the midst of that desert in terms of good news or good policies we received one single advantage which is to have a relatively low public debt if we take the debt with the private sector we will see a lot of great international organizations so if you use your zoom to look at Argentina in 20 years time what the beginnings of President Macri's administration was like you'll be able to see those two things enormous macroeconomic problems, lousy policies even institutionally speaking and a single advantage within that context a government with a parliamentary minority very clear the government controls a very small part of Congress five governors out of 24, 90 congressmen or MPs of 270 something in Senate the minority is even greater and that generated the conditions to encourage a gradual consolidation, fiscal policy taking into account the fact that Argentina was about to go under, go through a very, very serious crisis similar to the one in Venezuela but a change in administration prevented this from happening the possibility of taking debts, parliamentary minorities and the fact that society did not go through a crisis led to a fiscal policy of gradual consolidation gradual but consolidation anyway we have a non-negotiable commitment to the reduction in fiscal deficit our goal is to take the deficit from 5.4 which is the level that we received it at to 2.2 by 2019 if the economy grows by 3% annually which we think will happen that's one of the reforms that we are implementing we will stabilize the GDP debt ratio it will be lower than the emerging markets and it has done because very few countries have done such a turnaround in such a short space there are two countries I can think of and one of them is my one England but it's a story of disaster averted and gradual change including gradual fiscal consolidation although gradual fiscal consolidation is a phrase I've heard many years before in Argentina one day we'll close the fiscal deficit I don't think that's quite so Argentina has followed some gradual policies the fiscal policy it has advanced very fast institutionally speaking and in monetary terms we have a central bank implementing inflation goals that are very strict we have lifted controls on capital the first week of this administration's term which shows the government's commitment to economic reforms so fiscal gradualism is not a slogan to procrastinate in fiscal terms it's an economic strategy and within the framework of that economic strategy I would say that we can look at what we did in 2016, 2016 was the first year since the year 2002 in which the primary spending did not grow in real terms we came from 12 years where the real primary spending grew 10 percentage points a year and the tax pressure went up one point of the GDP every year last year we brought it down one and a half points so we're not talking about things we're going to do tomorrow we're also talking about things we did yesterday and to supplement this I would like to say that there are two fundamental components in our fiscal program one a fiscal responsibility law we have signed an agreement with the provinces two weeks ago to freeze primary spending not only of the national administration but provincial administrations from now on and that is where the provinces will also come to an agreement so as not to create or establish higher tax rates or create new taxes and we will be sending to congress a bill on tax reform after the midterm elections we are already ahead of time with our project but since we have elections this year and feel this project this bill will be accompanied by the opposition in a normal year and not a political year we decided to shield it from the political noise and then submit it after the elections but that tax reform will allow us to fight inflation, evasion because we will eliminate exemptions increase the tax base it is very optimistic that the combination of austerity on the side of spending and a far better tax administration will allow us to comply with our fiscal objectives it is clear that this administration has made a firm commitment with its goals indeed now Panama you're in a unique strategic space in a way that you see lots of flows of commerce and I'm wondering from the Panamanian point of view because we're just sticking with the region here for the moment how you're seeing global trade through the Panama Canal because I know trade of course is a leading indicator for so much else and dry good shipping as well how you see, if you see any reflection of these uncertainties in global trade through global trade flows through Panama thank you John Paul first, I think first and foremost we had a year 2015 where world trade flows declined and however by the last quarter of 2016 and the first two months of 2017 we have seen a two digit increase in world trade flows through the logistics platform in Panama obviously the trade benefits from the expansion or extension but we have also seen important increases in the management of cargo in Panama's ports and transshipment as well as for the first time in four years positive numbers in free zones which is linked to a recovery in Latin America because most of its customers are in Latin America so within this context the indication is that world trade is recovering in line with the expectations of better world growth and this will be highly beneficial particularly for Canada we will have according to a clock 5.9% growth we are projecting 5.8% growth and a very low inflation rate the main risks for Panama and the region are due to the lack of certainty in the policies of the US government although I agree with Guillermo that the rhetoric compared to what is really happening we have seen far more reasonable steps taken though what we heard of during and before or during the campaign, the political campaign which is good for world trade there will be changes regarding taxes in the US as well as immigration and trade but I don't think they will be as drastic as thought of originally before President Trump's inauguration Alicia which is one sign of recession and also uncertainty and David the IMF used to be a frequent visitor in the region but has barely been around for 15 years there are some small programs in the Caribbean and elsewhere there was a time last year when at least in Washington Brazil Brazil might need an IMF program and I wondered what countries you see now as being most vulnerable we will help countries that have a problem and feel that they need help I think obviously the country that is in the most disastrous circumstance right now is Venezuela and I hope that they find a way to change their orientation and start thinking about how to bring their problems under control fund program or no fund program they have an important stabilization to bring about that would be the only pathway forward to bringing some relief to their people I think that different countries in the region have different challenges most countries have passed through the recession passed through a period as a result of weakening currency where they had to have quite restrictive monetary policies and so now there is a chance for those policies to either be on hold or possibly to ease but there are still fiscal adjustments across the continent that are important for some in response to terms of trade deteriorations likely to be permanent and so there is the need to adjust for that on a permanent basis others have different challenges I do want to say though follow up to your questioning of Nicholas about perhaps your skeptical question about Argentina I think Argentina this government confronted a very difficult situation has taken the right approach to deal with it and is off to a good start and headed in the right direction the country must bring inflation down to much lower levels if there is going to be investment and prosperity in the long term and at the same time it must in the fiscal area there is both the need to control the deficit but also the need to make with spending to GDP that has risen very substantially in the last decade there is the need also to make space in the fiscal area for the kinds of spending that will actually be needed to drive the economy in the future for infrastructure and other needed spending so it is a complex task and I think it would have been there are some countries destabilized countries where there is a very quick disinflation from very very high levels but I think Argentina is a case where a steady approach to dealing with the monetary situation and the fiscal situation to try to also ensure recovery is probably the right way forward I think that is a ringing endorsement one topic that has continued to come up here in the forum has been corruption has significant microeconomic effects it can stall investment we have seen that in Brazil we have certainly seen that in Venezuela we have seen that in Argentina in the past and the point was raised earlier a sense it was a question from a Mexican saying has this corruption purge in Latin America gone too far in the sense that it is disincentivizing investment there is just too much uncertainty externally and now there is too much uncertainty internally Guillermo or anyone in fact does anyone feel like saying please I would say that it has not gone too far any level of corruption affects investment and credibility in the country in the last few years Latin America gave a step backwards in Argentina's case it was very visible the levels of corruption during the previous administration were extremely high and that also led to not only to a worse situation a lower level of foreign investment but also led to a worse appropriation projects were implemented where it was easier to generate illegally obtained money and all our program of spending on roads on routes on highways generated very high spending and we have tended the roads in Argentina and since this there have been savings of between 30 and 40 percent which are used for more public works so the effects are multiple and it's clear that to fight against, to fight corruption leads to not only a better institutional environment or climate it also improves the spending on infrastructure because you can get lower price levels and with the same amount of funds you can do far more than what is happening here today I agree with Nicolas because corruption is clearly a tax paid by the poor but you have to be very careful in ensuring that when cleaning your house you are not knocking it down and on behalf of he whom you are doing justice you have to protect people President of Panama has been subpoenaed by the Supreme Court Correct and Odebrecht had huge projects in Panama Yes and in line with that President Barilla's administration has made the biggest effort since we are a democratic country at attack corruption however you have to be very careful so that those steps don't generate greater instability in the country so that they don't generate unemployment and low economic growth or even recession and this balance should be handled very carefully because if not it will lead to instability and all the progress achieved in the fight against corruption might lead to step backwards This often takes place in steps rather than gradual evolutionary change so sometimes it's difficult to control the process once it's unleashed Guillermo The question of corruption will be the defining subject in elections in Mexico next year this is that important and we have to go beyond corruption and the rule of law these things obviously go hand in hand There are three very important points and I want to go over them very quickly first at a micro level in Mexico there are good statistics and academic surveys etc on the institutional state or the institutional strength in each of the states there is a ranking in terms of legal corruption or judicial corruption permits of ease of doing business it's very clear the properly governed states where there is less corruption greater institutional strength receive more investment and grow more even in one same region obviously there are two Mexico's the north of Mexico integrated to world trade and the southern part which has suffered a relative backwardness as a consequence of an after but this is interesting because it's a micro experiment and I agree with the minister who says that issues should not come to the point of stagnation in the case of Brazil the most commented and most important case in the region regarding prosecution or prosecution of corruption which has had costs in terms of paralysis in some sectors and a lack of decision making in others in the long run or in the short run this will be the best thing that could have happened to Brazil because this will force an institutional change a really important change and this bitter stage they have gone through will provide great benefits so the question of the rule of law in Latin America is essential I think Chile is the country with the greatest institutional strengths and has had them for many years but because of the question of social media corruption is in Instagram on Facebook and is clearly visible but this is a really important change because before you could see acts of corruption or acts of corruption were overlooked but now they are more evident in Brazil in the constitution of 1988 they created a very important series of investments in the judiciary and the judiciary became well paid it was meritocratic and it became a prestigious place to work and now you are seeing the dividend of that so it is not just social media it has to come out in the case of Brazil it is absolutely true what I wanted to say was the most serious thing in corruption is impunity and I think that is what has made the region fragile and there has been corruption not only in the political elite but also in the private sector and there is where that mesh is where the society has lost its confidence this is very serious because today with great frustration especially among the middle classes who are opposed who have installed a feeling of mistrust and disappointment and I believe this can really be serious and another problem I would like to approach is inequality in Latin America we cannot leave this panel without saying that it is the most unequal region of the world with the privileges we live in a culture unless we break with that culture of privileges and install a culture of shared prosperity we will not be able to go ahead and I would also like to refer to something you mentioned and Guillermo dealt with on Trump and the US government I think we should analyze things very coldly because on the one hand we have rhetoric but on the other hand there are three realities that are very clear one reassuring that is the call to showing that the United States is trying to bring back companies that will generate incentives bringing down corporate taxes there will start up measures we don't know which ones exactly but there will be measures second I think the question of migration and we have the figures there are 30 million Latin Americans living outside of their country of origin of which 20 million are in the USA of those 20 million 11 million have no documents so we have to see or look at the situation very clearly and third in your country in Great Britain, in Europe in the USA there is economic nationalism which is the topic we have to approach with that view Trump's measure to devote 54 million dollars to the military budget is a sign that he wants to go back to that time where the military was a synonym or equivalent to advancement and if the truth can be told Apple and many technology advanced technology companies arose during the military industry I just want to mention these points because I think there is a lot of rhetoric but there are also elements we have to assess many of that but it has to be put into context Ricardo Hausmann made a very good point earlier today about how 14% or so of businesses started in the United States or 14% was by foreign entrepreneurs and it's a similar statistic around Europe whereas in Mexico it was 0.4% and in Colombia it was 0.04% and in Chile it was even just 1% so penetration of other cultures these countries are coming from different places now let's have some questions from the floor if anyone has some questions yes this gentleman first please say your name and where you're from Jack Campbell, Marcia McLean in companies Ortiz a question to Mr. Ortiz about Mexico if Trump were to eliminate NAFTA which I think will happen we've just heard Mr. Sim said it might be good for Mexico in the sense that now they will have to diversify their export markets my question is do you think such a change would happen over a 20 year period or a 2 or 3 year period and secondly if we stay with NAFTA will this change happen anyway it's a good question I think speaking about diversification is easy now when you have a country like Mexico exporting 80% of its manufactured products 80% go to the US diversifying manufactured goods exports in the context of integrated production chains is not so easy it takes time so indeed exports of manufactured goods from Mexico to the rest of the world have grown in the past 10 or 12 years at a higher grade than the US however the base is small so it will take quite some time for Mexico to diversify its exports of manufactured goods it's much easier in the case of farming exports and agricultural imports Mexico is actively negotiating with Brazil and Argentina to offer similar treatment on the agriculture sector specifically in corn, soybeans etc. to Brazilian and Argentine farmers in case things go wrong in NAFTA because Mexico is the number one customer of the US on these products, on these commodities 38% almost 40% of all corn exports from the US purchased by Mexico so there are levers there and the second part I think regardless of what happens it's in Mexico's interest to diversify its trade I think Canada and Mexico are the only countries because even in the EU trade is more scattered but in the case of Canada some 80% of all Canadian exports are to the US so this trade concentration doesn't happen elsewhere in the world I insist even within zones like the European Union behind good afternoon everyone I'm a global shaper from Tegucigalpa Honduras my name is Carlos Algado in the context of the fourth industrial revolution which boils down to more technology to improve the people's standard of living much investment is needed in education, technology food manufactured goods and the different industries in the economy and to this end much public spending and investment is needed on people sometimes in getting to the fiscal deficit reduction targets expenditure investment is sacrificed on these factors I just mentioned if you were students of economics what would be the most friendly recipes so that people are not overlooked while you obtain the growth you expect in these areas thank you no you see I do I understood it perfectly how to achieve how to make public expenditure be spent in important sectors for young people such as education and I would say the capability to leverage technology breakthroughs to absorb technological advancement I think it is possible we have made important commitments on the education side the problem is quality I think government spending will continue to be important there are many countries which have further tied their government spending to certain industries even by their constitution it's even a state jacket in some cases but I think it's important for government spending not only for us to consider what is important not only coming from taxes but also to pay attention to government spending at ECLAC we are conducting a very deep analysis of which lines in government spending should be protected or avoided to avoid setbacks downturns especially in terms of poverty secondary education which we believe is vital and in this kind of guidelines I think countries are using important efforts not to compromise these aspects but if the region wants to catch the fourth industrial revolution and ride it and really benefit from it you not only have to have the right growth friendly spending which is what you were talking about but you've got to create more generally an environment where you need to have a stable economy you need to deal with corruption you need to deal with a range of social issues to make sure that the population is not responsive to populists and is willing to as president Makhry said this morning willing to see a period of sustained a sustained a sustained approach to economic policy that will create the basis for the kind of technological change and adaptation that can really bring about growth just one thing we need the private sector to invest in research and development this region invests very little in technology innovation in the public sector unlike in Europe where investment in research and development comes mostly from the private sector there is an issue there Alicia which has been quite underestimated I think because much of the training and improved quality in labor especially in the manufacturing industry comes from this themselves that's true the auto industry is one case aerospace automobile technology or ICTs etc so even if public policies in some countries like Mexico for instance do not favor expressly this additional training and this technological deepening so to speak companies are doing it themselves and this is an interesting topic two more questions if there are any takers a young global leader women are such an important contributor to this economy thank you but yet we are hardly represented in this room is it all rhetoric about closing the gender gap what are you actually doing to change this and have women contribute more that might be a question not a parody panel but yeah no this gives me the opportunity to mention something that's fundamental for us in Argentina and has to do with gender issues in Argentina we think the main gap today to overcome poverty is the number of school hours we have the gap of the hours in private schools versus public schools public schools have half the time in the classroom than private schools as an administration it is our desire in as much as we can consolidate public finances and minister Bolridge in education is doing some testing in some provinces to raise the number of hours in the classrooms in the public schools the most important program that would have the highest impact in Argentina the most shocking and type poverty program that could be in Argentina because in addition to reducing lower quality labor force it would include women in the labor force because when children can only attend school for four hours a day the mothers from low income households can only share of women in the labor force currently so in our mid and long term policies we have that on our agendas and we believe it tackles two of the major issues in Argentina for the long term namely poverty and women participation in the labor force very important that's very important my boss is a woman Christine Lagarde she runs and she supported a lot of work at our institution first to study the importance of gender inclusion and then through our work with countries to bring it about our studies show that gender equality and gender inclusion would actually matter a lot for growth pretty much around the world pretty much everywhere and I think that's an amazing conclusion in many countries it's not necessarily the case in Latin America but in many countries the principle obstacles are legal so the first thing to do is to look at laws and other institutional practices that limit the inclusion of women when we've done work in countries around the world there are some where educational opportunity and health is important there are others where labor force participation requires kinds of social programs to create child care and other institutions that will allow women to have the ability to have a family and also be in the workforce it's a subject that I think is going to gain in importance and in attention and that should happen because it has a huge potential Alicia, last word it is an economic issue not a social one because gender priority in the labor force in the labor market is essential women currently make 30% less than men in equivalent jobs despite the fact that they're better educated than men in part it is because of the care economy that is to find mechanisms to help women into the labor market but once they do enter they need to enter in equitable conditions and secondly we conducted a study if women today had the same jobs as men the same and were paid at the same rate poverty would go down from 1 to 10 percentage points in the region 1 point in Argentina and 10% in Bolivia we conducted this study and saw that women's income in the households might be essential for the economies I think the overall view is uncertainty, nothing new there Latin America is in quite a good space a lot of governments are doing the right things and ironically we came back to legal questions not only just corruption but also in terms of gender equality and regulations for education so thank you very much everybody