 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Baseball is officially back and so is Rob of Friedman pitching ninja joining us once again for today We're gonna pick his brain about what he learned at the all-star break We're talking about pitching matchups for today talks and strikeout props and get you ready to begin your second half on a high note This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire.com My name is Jim Sonis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire joined here as mentioned by Rob Friedman check him out on Twitter at pitching ninja find His work on peacock nlb.com Fox and of course here at Fandall sportsbook as well Rob Welcome back from the all-star break. How you doing? I'm doing great tired, but ready to go Yeah, you're out in Seattle hanging out with Ben Verlander try not to die You know, it seemed like it was quite an adventure But what was the highlight for you of the all-star game in Seattle? What was the highlight not dying? I think that was good like we had a bed and Ben We was about the home run derby and I lost because I'm not a home run guy Like I hope no one hits home runs. Yeah, and yeah, he technically had to throw me over the So I had Peter Lonzo winning it and I feel like you too. I feel like work Yeah, I feel like Peter Lonzo might be like a closet pitching ninja fan Based on the way things went there So maybe you need to recruit Peter Lonzo to get like some mop up duties You can get some gifts out there at Peter Lonzo because I think he might be on your side actually Well, I mean he definitely got painted to death. Yeah, that I think you're staying away from his nitro zone Good plan like if you're a pitcher. I get it. Yep. Yeah, I mean It looked like it was a lot of fun out there in Seattle It looked like you were talking to a lot of different pitchers You've got a full podcast up over on your YouTube page talking about different pitch grips any insights you gleaned from talking to you guys Up there just because like I feel like for you, especially Being on the ground and talking to people has to be so valuable. Oh, it's it's fantastic I mean the things that jumped out at me are a lot of pitchers really want to understand why their pitches move The way they do and they they know a ton about it You kind of expect that in in reality, but I think a lot of people assume that pitchers Oh, they're just you know, they they throw the ball and we all look at the stats No, they look at the stats, too And they're looking at video and movement numbers and stuff to make sure their pitchers are moving, right? So the knowledge of pitchers is huge and then Josiah Gray like pitch picks up a pitch grip every other day I think like I think he throws as many as you Darvish now So I expect big things out of him I love the energy that he brings and the desire to keep learning like that dude Will leave no stones on turn to make his game better I know it's cool to see him get to pitch to you know kind of a reward for it seems like Constantly tinkering again, you know, you don't want to overtinker but like he is tinkering He's trying to learn even though he's super young still it seems like he is on the right path He's got some stuff too. So it seems like when you combine Intelligence curiosity with some stuff. I feel like long term. It's it's pretty okay to be high on him going forward Oh totally. He's one of those guys that will not let himself fail So that's what I like is he holds himself to a high standard wants to keep learning And if things aren't working for him, he's going to figure out a new way to make himself better Like he just added a sweeper apparently that I don't know if I've ever called it one But he picked it up in the last month. All right. Well, there you go I'll have to look forward to that when digging into his next start Uh, that would be a lot of fun that pitching staff kind of has some fun dudes in his equally So, um, it definitely gonna be fun to watch them going forward talk some strikeout props and talk about potential strikeout leaders for tonight Across major league baseball in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We were here every weekday talking mlb nascar pga Whatever it may be on the covering the spread podcast vd if you like what you hear We must say five star rating on apple podcast or spotify Also, check us out in video form on the fandal youtube page and over on fan dual tv plus Let's dig in now to friday night rob and of course, we do have uh, you darvish out there for today to kick things off He Will be the second pitcher to throw a pitch in the second half of the mlb season when you look at the pitchers on tonight Slate rob who stands out to you in terms of strikeout props for tonight So I was looking at alcantara versus kramer in the uh, the orioles marlins game And you know kramer coming off a big effort against the yankees I kind of like his where his confidence is and I think sandi's turned it around a little bit You know the only bump has been the braves and that's a bump for everybody like He only giving up only giving up four runs against the braves. It's like a shutout basically, so I give a buy on that What to you Did you see in alcantara's recent outings that led you to believe that he's turned a corner because I've been searching all year trying to find Okay, this is it. This is it. No, this is this is it and it's like it's a tough match up here, too But the strikeout number is low. It's four and a half for alcantara minus 134 on the own Over almost identical for kramer four and a half minus 136 for him. What do you Made you think that alcantara had figured something out I've seen his change up return a little bit more to normal and that's where I thought he was struggling so uh to me seen as Again a couple of good games his stuff is there like it's not like a velo drop or anything like that I wouldn't have any doubt that with that change up now being more dialed in That he's going to be able to put it together today. Now, of course saying that It won't happen, but my logic is there. I feel it right right and it's based on what you see And I think that's always gonna be valuable, too So alcantara four and a half is minus 134. I love dean kramer personally. I think that he's super fun it's a low strikeout team in the marlins, but um kramer It seems like he's unlocked something like the past two or so months And it's a large sample now of him pitching really well 25 strikeout rate his past 11 starts What puts you on kramer as well here? It was exactly that like I mean he's slowly Or or I guess under the radar picked up a good stretch of k's and I kind of like him for five today Like I think I think both of those guys that seems like a pretty good pick to me That should be a fun game to watch. Uh, so liking alcantara over four and a half minus 134 dean kramer Over four and a half at minus 136 in that marlins versus orials game Which other props you looking at for tonight rob? I would I mean I think tyler glass now might strike out 400 today So, uh, you know, he's been he's been really nasty Yeah, and I could see him having a fairly sizeable game today You know against the royals that seems like a good match Glass now strikeout prop is seven and a half right now minus 140 on the over looking at my numbers So I have strikeout projections rob that I run myself based on pitch counts and stuff like that I have glass now projected for 8.7, which sounds low probably based on an entire glass now But that's like a 90th percentile number because it's hard to get high strikeout projections high and still above this number two Of seven and a half with minus 140 on the over because It's Tyler freaking glass now Um pitch count has been good enough. I would say uh better than I thought it'd be to when he's not cramping Um, and he's facing a team that will strike out for sure Not the best plate discipline out of uh, can city so I get why you're you're high on glass now here. It kind of seems like assuming the weather is okay it's kind of a Unfortunately pun intended your perfect storm for glass now to rack up some strikeouts tonight. Yeah. Yeah, I told that's exactly what I'm seeing I mean, he's he's a basically an unstoppable force and the and the royals are a very movable object, so I think he'll do okay I firmly agree. I hope that we get some good weather in that game because glass now is a delight to watch always seems like He's just kind of himself again, which is uh reassuring given a situation So we are on a glass now over seven and a half minus 140 and then kramer over four and a half minus 136 Alcantra for four and a half minus 134 in that same game Now we're not going to get the To lead the night in strikeouts prop up yet because there are a couple teams that have not announced starters He had the jays not officially not their starter the a's. I don't think have either So there are a couple teams that have left some things open So we're not going to get that market up yet But once that market does come out rob Where are you going to turn first? Which guys are you looking to to potentially lead a Friday night and strikeouts over at fandom? Well, I mean, I want to see glass now's number Yeah, because he's got to be the favorite like that matchup is kind of sick for him Yeah And I think like erot could be a dark horse against the mariners like, you know They're known to strike out just a little bit and uh, and he actually wanted to have seven and four last time Didn't pitch all that great as far as you know given up runs But his stuff is there and it's sneaky good and he could get a bunch and he might be You know, I don't know what the odds are going to be if he's got a good number. I would look at that so I uh Have the tigers money line today in part because of edward roderiguez looking at that first star back off the il Velocity was good. It was actually better than it was before he got hurt He was willing to use his Cutter and his slider. So that to me that to me I always care about because I want to know they have confidence in in their health And off speed pitches being willing to use them to me is always a key indicator Right, which is always something he is good at but like I know it's the a's too But like seeing him do that to me allow me to overlook the results in that game and focus on the seven strikeouts The fact that he pitched well, so I agree with you. I think we should be on roderiguez for tonight Because I don't think that can that that start was as bad as the results would say I could not agree with you more. That was exactly my logic looking at that and against a team that has some k there And he's slight, you know kind of under the radar been picking up strikeouts this year So that is somebody, you know, I think he's back healthy I didn't see anything that's going to hold him back and it wouldn't surprise me like if you get a good enough number Yeah, he's a six and a half for the strikeout props specifically. Uh plus one 14 on the over that to me says he'll probably be 12 14 to one, I would say uh to lead tonight And I think that could be intriguing probably longer honestly given glass now is there and glass now sucks up a lot of the The win equity in that market, but I think roderiguez very interesting And hopefully he can do so getting a win not drew it against louise castillo because that's not fun But like the tigers think are very interesting and potentially undervalued at plus one 66 Okay, so check out tyler glass now see if you can maybe get a discount there based on Weather based on glass now, you know having the crances last time out anything like that or Rodriguez potentially a dark horse against the mariners for tonight We're all I'm glad we're on the same page with it. We're all Rodriguez and the the tigers one for tonight I think that's that that makes you feel better about it I always feel better when we're on the same page because a lot of times I'm sitting there talking with you And I'm like, oh, I didn't think about that pick like that was actually pretty good You you know you pull something out and I'm like, dude, you're the man See for me It's more like I'm very nervous recommending the tigers to beat the mariners plus one 66 and you say roderiguez and I'm like Cool, I'm in we're good to go sign me up My mental like burden is a lot less. So it's a win-win as always awesome Well, that is rob freedman makes you check him out on twitter at pitching ninja find his work on peacock nlb.com Fox and of course here at fandom as well rob It is great to have you back on the show and joy the first night post all-star break. We'll talk to you once again next week I'm gonna be busy. Yes. Yeah Alrighty again, uh, check out all of rob's great work Hoping for a lot of edward roderiguez strike out gifts for tonight and hopefully a tigers win as well We'll talk about why I'm on the tigers here as we go through some money lines In just one second But first take your first swing at betting and I'll be on fandal and get 10 times their first bet amount in bonus Betts up to 200 dollars. That's right. Just bet 20 bucks. You'll land 200 dollars in bonus bets win or lose That's 200 you can spend on betting everything from strikeout props via rob freeman talking about overunders Who you think will hit first home run on an app that is safe secure and super easy to use plus when you win You can get paid instantly. There's no better place to bet on mlb than fandal america's number one sports book So sign up today to get 200 dollars in bonus bets fandal official partner a major league baseball Must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money wager only $10 deposit required bonus issued is non-littrable bonus bets that expire 14 days after receipt restrictions apply and see terms at sportsbook dot fandal dot com fandal is offering online sports waging in kansas under an agreement with kansas star casino llc gambling problem Call 1 800 gambler or visit fandal dot com slash rg in colorado iowa michigan new jersey ohio pennsylvania illinois tennessee in virginia Call 1 800 next step or tax next step to five three three four two in arizona 1 888 789 777 7 or visit ccpg dot or access chat in connecticut 1 809 with it in indiana 1 805 224 700 or visit ks gambling health dot com in kansas 1 877 770 stop in louisiana visit md gambling health at organ maryland visit 1 800 gambler dot net in west virginia or call 105 224 700 in wyoming hope is here Visit gambling helpline ma.org or call you 103 to 750 50 for 24 7 support in massachusetts And call 1 877 open wire text open y in new york Let's begin now to the money line forth now Let's begin things off with the tigers talking about that when we were just discussing with rob We were talking about at water road regas before and as mentioned with rob He got bounced around a lot in that first start off the eye out But again the underlying numbers good just three hard hit balls and 11 balls in play Still got seven strikeouts So to me when i look at that when i look at his velocity look at his pitch mix it says to me he was good but got unlucky and I feel like to me that gives me faith in putting Confidence in what he did before his injury if we look at a larger sample in rodriguez 34 hard hit rate across eight starts fewer sinkers and a 29 strikeout rate He's facing louis castillo. We love louis castillo here on this podcast But he has had some issues with hard contact at times So i'm expecting a pretty low scoring type game and that does favor the team with a 38 Percent implied odd to win. That's the tigers plus 166. I've got them around 40 percent So to me tigers are good value to win for tonight Plus 166 being their uh money line right now over at fandall sportsbook The other two money lines i like have actually moved a bit since i was looking at them this morning So We do want to dig in and identify whether There is still value there as always so you can chop around potentially still get a discount elsewhere The first one is the balkamal orials. They are currently minus 130 They were minus 118 earlier on today the implied odds of minus 130 are 56.5 percent and the implied odds of 180 or 118 or 54.1 percent so about two Percentage points of movement. I have the or is around 60 to win So there is still value there, but I would note once again Make sure you shop around try to identify if any books are lagging behind when it comes to This market's even get the orials at a better number I think there's value of minus 130, but shop around and see what you can get my model typically Likes the marlin. So I was a bit surprised to see It showed value in the orials here, but it comes down to what we discussed with rob where Dean kramer has been really really good recently It's a 10 start sample from me on kramer since he started throwing more cutters in that time He has a 3.75 a skill interactive era With really impressive plate discipline numbers now I do get a bit worried hearing that rob has seen some life out of sandy alcantra's change up because that change Up has been it was kind of a key pitch for him when he had his breakout was getting that change up because he previously had a lot of issues with lefties and nullified that and If he can get back to being sandy alcantra minus 130 will look pretty rough here. So I would say it's not as Intriguing as it was before because there's less value now since it has moved and I've talked to rob and that does matter for me So a bit wary about minus 130. I do still like it. My model does still show value So I would take the orals of minus 130, but I would at least get some caution Uh, and let you know that this that the numbers move. There's not as much value anymore and A person whose opinion I respect says alcantra may Potentially be trending back up But I like the orals primarily because of kramer their offense and disliking the marlin's offense The second one actually has moved in our favor, uh, which means it's moved against me, which is never a fun feeling But that's the chicago cubs money line the chicago cubs out to plus 110 right now at vandal sports But they were plus 102 earlier on and then they moved to even money But apparently someone came in and uh bet on the red sox because this one is moved back towards boston. So So That means it could move again So what I would do is open up your vandal sports book app while you're listening Check where the money line is to the cubs if it's still a 110 in an hour or so I'm recording this at uh 10 19 a.m. Eastern if it's still around 110 or so around 11 Then I'd be okay diving in otherwise If it's still lengthening I'd hold off, you know, you want to find that inflection point You want to identify the point where you can get the best number So if it's still around 110 in an hour or so, I'd be okay diving in but just check on this market to see Whether or not now is the right time and I get why there's money coming in a boss Because brian bay is starting for the red sox and he's very very fond and I do like him broadly But I think that the money line here Yeah, is underselling how well kyla hendrix has pitched since returning now This depends on which metric you look at because skill interactive era is not into hendrix It's underwhelming at 4.85 since he returned but to me the weakness of skill interactive era is identifying or quantifying pitchers who are really good at Suppressing hard contact and that's what hendrix does in his time this year. He has a 32 hard hit rate allowed and That's why his expected era is down at 3.81 when you've got a guy who is an outlier With his bad at ball data either in the good sense of the bad sense I put more faith in expected era than skill interactive era. They're about neutral. I don't care I'll go skill interactive era because I trust the mechanics of that one and the sustainability that one more but in these situations I skew towards expected era and Hendrix expected era is 3.81. It's just pretty good. I think that contact suppression is a skill Also, there is some weather in Chicago for today So maybe there could be a weather delay if that does happen though The cubs bullpen pretty solid. No huge concerns there. They've got a better skill interactive era And they're active roster in the bullpen than the red socks do so Not saying they'd have an edge, but it wouldn't be an active negative if that were to happen So my pot my model as the cubs win odds 54.6 percent the implied odds at plus 110 Much lower than that as it has moved again against us. So Plus 110 the implied odds there 47.6 percent So, you know again when you open your app check out this number See if it's moved if it's lengthened more I'd hold off try to see if you can get a better number later on Keep tabs on that market throughout the day But if you open your app and see if it's still plus 110 or for shortened to plus 105 or something like that Then I'd be okay diving into the cubs. I took this. I think at even money yesterday, so it moved against me, but I'd be okay that even if it were to get to even money once again for the cubs So three money lines for today the Orioles at minus 130 the cubs at plus 110 and the tigers at plus 166 That's all we got here for today Here on covering the spread want to give a big thank you once again to to rob freeman check about on twitter at pitching ninja Find his work at peacock nlb.com fox and here on covering the spread each friday as well If you got any questions for me, I'm on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast Do not forget to subscribe on the covering the spread podcast feed or on the fan dual youtube page or check us out Over on fan dual tv plus. Hope you all have a fantastic weekend Good luck to you with your bets across nlb for tonight and this weekend. We'll talk to you once again on monday This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network