 Great. Welcome to Digital Asset News. Take a top story in crypto, right now a bite-sized piece. So today, just the thumbnail and title suggest. Grayscale Report comes out and says we have 250 days of the bear market. It sounds good and hopefully it's true, but we shall see. So we'll take a look at exactly what's going on in the report. And then we'll go over that and then we'll talk about some other pieces of good news that I'm feeling a little bit bullish on. One of those is Jim McCaleb has run out of selling XRP and the inflation rate is actually going down. And then also, as we talk about this good news, I have to also give you the flip side. And we'll talk about some bad news, which again relates to three arrows capital, as two more companies have come out and said, yes, we gave a massive loan that's uncollateralized and will probably go under. And then lastly, we'll take a look at a nice little story about how sometimes you just got to gamble. And this will not be gambling or financial advice, just good things to know. And we'll go over all those things in a short amount of time. So let's just jump into it. So the first thing I want to talk about is, actually, before we get in the market, how adoption actually takes a little bit of time. And I have to tell you, everybody tells me in the comments, Rob, you don't get it. We're super late. We're in the third or fourth or fifth inning of this nine inning baseball game called crypto and digital assets. And you just don't understand how far along we are. We are not far in any stretch of the imagination. We're far because we see it because we're in this bubble. And this bubble is the people that you talk to online. Go outside of this bubble and talk to your friends and family, the ones that you don't bombard them with information. And to say, Hey, did you hear about how Bitcoin or the price of Ethereum is doing? First, I might ask you what the heck is Ethereum? They might know Bitcoin, but outside of that, they really don't have any idea. And that's really what it is. The one they can tell you probably is that, yeah, I heard crypto is a scam and it's really going down. That's really how far we are. And to drive this point home, there was this piece that I had shared on Twitter. And it was a study in 2018, I admit, a little bit older, but it's interesting to note just how far we haven't come just in payments. And this was, this was a CNBC report and it talked about the share of US consumers. I can't, this is just the United States, Kingsley, where you're at of what people are actually using as far as a payment method in 2018. Now, this was retroactively, they had actually asked these people later on and people said, this is what I used. And they named them all off. And the first one was a credit card. Look at the second one, it's cash. And we all talk, some people say cash is king, I personally cash is still king, seriously, because I can do a lot of things with it. And guess what? Very hard to track. So just putting that out there. 79% versus 80%. Bank and debit cards, 59%. Just 60%. And do you know that debit cards were created in the late 60s? It got traction in the 70s and really started to really take shape in the 80s. That took a long time for a very simple thing. Then of course, we have checks and people like, who the heck uses checks? People use checks all the time. I still use checks. When I want to pay a contractor or pay somebody outside that's a little bit larger amount, I'm using checks. And then some people and you'll see these guys, they'll go to the bank and they'll pay with checks, PayPal, Apple Pay, Venmo and so on and so forth. So one thing to note here is that you see how PayPal is only a 44%. That's been around for quite a bit of time. But look at Apple Pay. Even though they are a massive trillion dollar company, they have global reach just because they're great with phones and computers. And that industry doesn't mean they're going to take out over the payment sector, even though everybody has an Apple phone. I've had an Apple phone for seven years or so. I've never used Apple Pay. That's just how it is. So if you think that we're a little bit we're in the late innings, we are not. And to drive this point home, I think that's not so long ago, even there was an interview. And it was with Bill Gates and David Letterman. This was back in 1995. And I want you to listen to this quickly if I can find it. I'll play it later. But it was all about it was Bill Gates. He's talking to David Letterman. And he's talking to him and saying, this is what the what the new future is. And they're like, no, this is never going to be and they got laughed at essentially. So if we think that we're in the later stages, we are not, unfortunately. So that's what we have. So just remember that going forward, because I know like when we take a look at today, the market itself, it looks great. And some of you might be thinking, this is it. This is when the, you know, when the rocket ship takes off, actually, I haven't refresh this 1.06 trillion bitcoins up to 22,000 refresh, see where we're at. Yeah, same thing, pretty much. So bitcoins at 4.6, almost 22k, Ethereum, massive run up over seven days, 25% plus. And of course, that is because of the news about the merger potentially happening. Hopefully it does. And take a little bit of a pump. Cardano's up almost 8%. 23% for polygon, essentially, after that big news with Disney. And there's another, actually tomorrow. No, in two days, they're going to announce another big announcement from polygon, take whatever else it is. So these are the things that are going on. These are good. So in green days, what do we always say? Well, we just take a look at the rules. First of all, anything that you invest into, just assume it's all gone. Don't invest more than you can afford to lose. Treat everything like a scam until proven otherwise, you need to verify don't trust. Don't leave anything on exchanges. Don't use leverage. And of course, take profits along the way. These are just my rules. You can use them any way, shape, perform that you see fit. But on days like today, if you're up a little bit, hey, nobody, everyone broke taking profits. And then to take a look at, are we actually correlated? Yeah, a little bit. Actually, we're doing a lot better than traditional markets. Looks like S&B 500 start off as a rocket. And then of course, it's just up a little bit. NASDAQ. Oh, no, forget that. NASDAQ even took a little bit of tumble. Started off strong and then I think there's some earnings reports coming out. And they're coming out today. And that's what's happening. So as you see this go down, well, potentially expect that to go down. Can I say that for 100% insurance? No, I cannot. So that's what's going on in the market itself. Let's take a look at this 250-day report. So this was a, it gives me a little bit of hope. And as you can tell on this show, I haven't been too bullish lately, because certain macro events and because I'm a big believer in the four-year cycles, I think we've got a long road ahead of us. But this kind of puts things in perspective. And I'll tell you that this one makes a lot of sense to me. And don't say that this is the gospel because, I mean, everything, everything works until it doesn't. Here's what we got. Crypto winner is 250 days left. The market cycle repeats as grayscale. Grayscale investments, latest insight report, which I will, I link in the description. You can find that there and read the whole thing. Pins of the start of the current bear market as of June 2022. That's when they say the current bear market was. And it could last another 250 days if the previous market cycles are repeat themselves. Bitcoin market cycles convention last for four years or approximately almost 1300 days. The firm defies a cycle when the realized price of Bitcoin moves below the current market price. That's what they determine as the bear market. So take a look at this. First of all, this all comes down to this, what I believe in to be true. And it's held up pretty accurately actually so far. You know, in 2012, we had a halving, all-time high dip reset. Same thing happened in 2016, all-time high in 2017, dip and a reset. Then of course, here we are again, 2020, 2021. We had that all-time high halving happened in 2020. And of course, I was wrong. I thought that these, this flow would have continued into 2022. Elongated cycles didn't prove to be true. And we dropped down. Now we're at 20, almost 22,000. And we're going to see some lot, lot more problems. And then I think the same thing is going to happen again in 2024 and 2025. So those are the four-year cycles. Here's the actual report. And it says this, they give a specific date. As of June 13, the realized price of Bitcoin crossed below the market price, signaling that we may officially have entered a bear market. And that can actually be taken, look at as this. And nothing's going right today. Don't worry, I didn't give anybody my password. Everybody calm down. That is my email. But I think we all know my email because it's in the description. So this is the thing I'm always talking about. Taking a look at on-chain analysis. But there's this one right here, the market value to realize value ratio. Anything above 2.3.7 is considered pretty much a blow-off top. And that's like a big sell indicator. And anything below 1.0 usually indicates somewhere around a bottom. If we blow this up, let's see if I can do it over here. Hey, look at that. That date, June 13th. So in black is the price of Bitcoin. And you can see that it was screaming at us when Bitcoin went above 57,000, 56,000. And anywhere you sold around here would have been pretty good. All you had to do was just pay attention. And I didn't sell as much as I was supposed to. It's true. And I got greedy trying to learn my lessons. But as you go over here, and things are just in these normal ranges, market value versus realize value. But once it hit down to around June, we see here. And this, of course, is at CryptoQuant. You can find the link in the description. It goes down here. And as it crossed over to the 13th of June, that's when they consider it a bear market. Again, and that's what over at CryptoQuant, the same thing, they say this is a good time to potentially buy. Is that investment advice? No. But it's just what I'm doing. And I've been dollar cost averaging down here. Enough. I've held some things back because I think we're going to go a little bit worse. And I'm going to explain to you why I could have been wrong. But down here, you have to ask yourself, is this the bottom? I don't know. And nobody knows. But the question you have to ask yourself, is this worth when things are cheap? Or is Bitcoin expensive? I think that's the bigger question to ask yourself. So that takes care of look at that. Going back to the article. Realized price is some of the assets. This gives a measure of how positions are profitable, if at all. And of course, right now, we've got a lot of people who are out of profit, meaning that it's probably into that bear or pretty good buy territory. Grayscale highlights in the report 2012-2015 market cycle with events like the fall of Silk Road, infamous Mt. Gox debacle, which some people will say that there is a payout coming, which we covered this, and I think it was five or six days ago, where yes, the lawyers in Japan, they said, yes, we're going to give out some type of monetary compensation. And it did state specifically in the report, you can either ask for dollars, Bitcoin or Bitcoin cash equivalents. So we'll see if that actually goes through because I've been hearing this story forever. 2016 and 2019 were remembered for the boom and initial and ICOs. I think we all remember that. And the 2020 market cycle will be remembered as a story of leverage. I think we can all appreciate that, especially with some stories we're about to get to in a little bit going forward. So that is what is going on. And I think it's a pretty good thing to look at. Go, wow, it puts things in perspective, only 250 days for this bear market. Does that mean that we start to go bullish and everything goes up and parabolic? No, it's not what it means. It means what it really comes down to is this. We're going to start to look at, I'll just take it like this. We've already gone down. Hopefully, we can get a little bit more sideways come down here. I think that in 250 days, that's roughly eight and a half months. Now you're going to be into 2023 because right now it's July 2023. Around right here is when we might start to see a little bit of an increase. But I still think for 250 days, you've got a lot of time for things to be boring as hell and to do this. That's what I'm going to do. I can't tell you what to do, but that's what I did last time. It's kind of funny. This is the exact same thing I did in 2017 when everything was super low. I just was buying all along these boring channels when everybody left and the fear and great index was super high, and the market cap was extremely low. Now it's just the same thing repeating again, again, and again. Those are the good parts. Also, one thing I'm actually a little bit bullish on, which is, I know, I said bullish word, which is odd for me because I've been so negative so long. This part, true inflation. I put a lot of stock into that. I had the CEO on, Stefan, we talked about how they get these data points, 30 different data points, streaming in real time, using a chain link oracle to pull in outside realized data. And they're saying, look, we knew that inflation was super high, even though the government was pretty much lying to us or they were ignoring facts. We knew this, but we can see that things are sort of level off. And again, there's a link in the description for this website and it links to the interview I had with Stefan. It was great. And he said, you know, it looks like it's pretty much flattening out. We'll see if it decreases, and I'll be damned if it didn't do that. So now we're going, maybe all that Fed stuff, CPI numbers come out super high, but those are retroactively, retroactive numbers, maybe now the numbers that are coming out are looking out pretty good. And maybe what the Fed is doing is actually working. The big question will be what will happen on July 26 and 27. So these are the things that had me looking pretty bullish, which is weird for me to say that word. But here we are. Also, Jim McKaleb finally sold the last of his XRP today. So if you don't know Jim McKaleb, he was one of the original founders of Ripple. He was also the one that was responsible for Mount Cox and selling that. That's a whole other story. But yeah, Jed here, he just sold the last of his XRP, which has been he's been dumping on the XRP community. And I got to tell you something. Jed's a pretty good investor. And did he wait for XRP to go all the way to whatever people thought it was? No. And he just said, look, I don't know where it's going to go, but I'm going to dump it on everybody. And you guys are going to buy it. And that's just how it is. Unfortunately, it worked out pretty well for him. So I know that people talk about that stupid phrase called diamond hands. I think it's dumb. I'm sorry. I just I just do I think that if you want to hold all the way up and all the way down, you can do that. I just won't do that. It just doesn't make any sense to me. Correct me. Sound off in the comment section. Tell me what a moron I am, but I just don't see it. And I got to tell you, Jed, Jed, Jed, Jed, did it pretty, I mean, he kind of dumped on everybody and everybody's bought it. So my question was, how much did he make over all this time? It's been years. And this was from Leonidus, that's made that Jim McKayla made $3.09 billion and 708 Bitcoin from the sale of his positions. Most of the sales, 80% or 2.56 came after the SEC filed its case against Ripple. Let me read that again. 80% or 2.5 billion came after the SEC filed his case against Ripple. And of course, you're saying, well, well, of course, Rob, of course, you can do that because he had so many different XRP tokens. Yeah, sure did. And played it off, unfortunately, perfectly. This is from Leonidus. Premiers says the same exact thing. So I'm not here to celebrate Jed McKayla. I think it was a jerk move to dump on anybody. But you got to call a spade a spade. It was a great investment for him, which he got paid a bunch of XRP and dumped on everybody. Everybody bought it up. And now he will rise from the sunset. So now if you're an XRP holder, I am one of you. I sold a bunch of XRP for wash trading reasons, which you can do legally because we are not a security yet. And it bought a bunch of it back. So now we don't have to worry about Jed dumping on us all the time. Good for him. Anyhow, those are the reasons why I am bullish. Now let's talk about the bad stuff. So I can't just leave you with a bunch of hope and you walk out of here scot-free. That doesn't work like that. This is what's up. So 3AC, 3AO's capital strikes again. Crypto lending Genesis lent 2.36 billion to 3AO's capital and they're probably going to lose it all. So here's what's happening. Genesis lent 2.36 billion to 3AO's capital. It's loaned to 3AC, had a margin requirement of over 80%. And it sold collateral when 3AC failed to maintain that later seeking repayment of the outside debt through arbitration. When I first heard this, I'm like, well, good for them. They had them collateralize the loan. No, they didn't. Check this out. Documents obtained by the block highlight the 2.36 billion outside loan owed by Genesis, owed to Genesis by 3AC. They also showed the debt is under collateralized. It's amazing to me why people like us have to collateralize like crazy, 2X, 3X or 4X. But for 3AC and a bunch of degenerates, which, let's be fair, maybe they knew, maybe they didn't know, it doesn't matter to me, but they didn't have them collateralized whatsoever. Here's the money. Hopefully you pay it back. See you later. It's half a billion dollars or two billion dollars. Good plan. So spokesman for DCG told the block both the DCG and Genesis balance sheet remain strong. I can't even say it with a straight face. A spokesman for DCG told the block both the DCG and Genesis balance sheets remain strong. With no remaining exposure to 3RO's capital, Genesis continues to be well capitalized and its operations are business as usual. Tell me what you think about that in the comments. That would be interesting. Genesis claimed that 3AC had breached two lending agreements that were joined, signed in January 2019 and January 2020. So you had to remember this, that 3AC back in the day was the darling. They were the geniuses. They were the ones that people looked to and said, we want to give that to you. Little did they know that they were putting a bunch of their money into Anker, Luna and USD, which totally collapsed. And here we are. So if you thought this was just like a very small amount of time, it's been happening for years and just now takes the unraveling. Genesis CEO Michael Moro said in a series of tweets on July 6, the company's loans at 3AC had weighted margin, average margin requirement over 80%, which 3AC had been unable to meet, prompting Genesis to sell its collateral, but it wasn't that much. Digital currency groups assumed certain Genesis liabilities to ensure it has the capital to operate and scale its business going forwards. It is now digital currency group, not Genesis, that has exposed potential losses linked to 3AC's borrowings. It looks like digital currency group was taking the heat for Genesis and they're like, okay, we'll recover all these damages. I hope so. Documents obtained by the block refer to a demand from Genesis, that $1.1 billion in outstanding unsecured borrowings be placed in escrow for the link to the arbitration process. 3AC was some $462 million short of its collateral requirements. That's just the collateral as of June 15th. Backing Genesis loans were three blocks of shares in the grayscale Bitcoin trust. Let me say this one more time so it's gonna make sense. Backing Genesis's loans were three blocks of shares in the grayscale Bitcoin trust, totaling $17,443,641 of the grayscale Bitcoin trust, which was a nice report we just took a look at right over here, grayscale. It is interesting to note before I move on that you were getting a massive discount for that because grayscale was really pushing that Bitcoin ETF and I was rooting for them. I didn't think they had a snowball chance in hell of actually getting it, but I was rooting for them. I really was, but I've been here since 2017 and I've heard that same song advance forever and I was like, it's not gonna happen. But if it would have happened, that's the thing. If it would have happened, then they would have had a good amount of collateral. I think there would have been a lot of happier people and of course a lot more happier investors. That's for darn sure. That's why grayscale right now is filing a lawsuit against the SEC and they're saying, look, if you can approve a futures ETF and a shorts ETF, which is all correlated to the price of spot Bitcoin, why can't you approve the spot Bitcoin ETF? Now the legal team has already come out and said, this is going to take years to fight and I hope they win. But it is a shame that this couldn't have happened. So another company could have actually stayed afloat. And of course also they have a bunch of shares in the grayscale Ethereum trust, Avalanche blockchain and near protocols in Amtoga. That's interesting. So that's one of two. Here's the second one that just came across the desk. Investors lost over a hundred million after Invictus Capital moved funds into UST Celsius against their wishes, which if you don't want to Invictus, they pretty much shut down and said in 12 May. Don't worry about it. We're not going to accept anything more, but everything is good on 23 May until further notice. Well, that's not true. This is a very long article. I'm just going to skip it for most of it. I link this in the description so you can read the whole thing. But Invictus Capital, hopefully you're not a part of that, a crypto investment firm based in South Africa, moved crypto from funds designated for investments with no anticipated down risk into Terra and held the tokens through the UST DPEG event, citing pretty amazing interest as justification for holding through the crash. So they held it all right there, but then this is, it's a good article, but I've been on time. This last thing, just so you know, of the 135 million managed by Invictus, approximately 80 million was invested in either Terra or Celsius. So good luck with that. So those are the bad news, and that's the thing that gives me pause. So we talked about time frames for 50 days. I do believe in the four year cycles. I still see how, yes, I can understand that another eight and a half months, but for me, it's all just 2017 over again, 2018 over again, just dollar cost average and go from there. And of course, we took a look at Trueflation. Flation is going down. I like that. Took a look at how Jim McKaleb has run out of XRP. I like that. And there's just some positive things going on. And of course, the market response. Does that mean that we're going to go straight up? No. And there is one thing that I will add on this that still gives me concern. And that is that the Fed, the meeting is July 26 and 27th, that is next week. And if they come out and they raise it a full point, I think the market will respond. And we'll see if it's, if our market remains resilient, just like when the CPI numbers came out, CPI numbers came out on the 13th, went down from 20,000, 19,000, bounce right back up to 20,200, something like that. That's resiliency. It sounds good. If it does come out and the Fed says 75 points, everything drops and stays drops. I got concerns, but if they come out and they drop at 75 points or a full basis point and they bounces right back up or doesn't want to move at all. Those are great signs. So I'm just sitting here waiting. I can't tell you what to do. Just telling you what I'm doing. Right now, I'm just value cost averaging. I already bought yesterday a little bit of Bitcoin, a couple of vaults, which I will remain nameless because I don't want to hear it in the comments section. But, you know, a lot of smarter people than me have called for bottoms at 14k and 10k and 3k. And some people say it's going to 50k or 30k or 32k. I'm not smart enough to know that. So I just value cost averaging go from there. I think in 3, 5, and 10 years, which I will still be here, maybe not doing videos every day, but I'll still be here for sure. I think it's the right way for me to go. Anyhow, let me just think about that in the comments section. And then to finish up, a couple of good stories. Sometimes you got to gamble. And I thought it was just, it's just interesting. This is from Simon Yu, which we call the Simon indicator. And he says, major respect to at Ulin poker, always been things when looking grim. So check this out. This was a story about at Ulin poker chat. I don't know who that is. This is from Kobe, who is, I've listened to this guy before. He's a pretty funny guy, but like a Bitcoin OG or something. He states, at Ulin poker chat, he lost the majority of his net worth more than a million dollars in the Luna ecosystem. And then he won $10 million yesterday in the World Series of Poker for a 10K entry fee. But even more interesting is that he only entered the 10K because he lost so much money, couldn't play high stakes anymore. So he went from having nothing to something by pretty much gambling. I'm not telling you to gamble. I'm just telling you that's what it is. And then actually, let me go back real quick. This reminds me of a story of, and some of you will know this one, Fred Smith, his company FedEx. I don't know if you know about that, wherever you're from in the U.S. It was going under. He took his last $5,000, went to Vegas, went to Vegas and played Blackjack and won like 30, some thousand dollars was able to keep his company in business. And of course, FedEx becomes a multi-billion-dollar business today. So I'm just saying that these things that we talk about, sometimes you just got to put it out there. And I'm not telling you to do that. I'm just telling you that in this market, crypto and digital assets, it's a lot of gambling. Let's just be honest. We're very early, like we talked about before. So just don't invest more than you can afford to lose and just know that really it is gambling. There is one little comment I'd like to make mention of. I like this guy. Crypto Chi says, and this is, of course, I said sometimes gambling pays off, obviously an investment vice. And then Crypto Chi, of course, reminds me, and sometimes it doesn't. And you go to jail for shilling Celsius for over two years. Why? How dare you? Well, actually, he's right. I did talk about Celsius and Voyager for quite a long time. However, there's a link in the description. I talked about my timeline. And June 9th, 10th, 11th, those consensus, people said, so this looks like it's going down. I did a video in the morning on June 12th, said, hey, something going on, don't know what it is, but I'm taking all my money off Celsius. And kind of alluded to the fact that you should too. And of course, nine hours later, withdrawal was shut down. Voyager been talking about that forever. Like that company, like that company really wanted them to succeed. June 22nd came out, they were uncollateralized over half a billion dollars of 3AC. I said, that's not right. Taking all my money out. I don't really like what's going on there. And you should too. And that's around the time. Actually, June 14th, 15th, we started to talk more about the rules, taking everything out of exchanges. So look, those stories that we talked about before, I knew as much as you knew. And then when I figured it out, I put it out there. And that's all I can really tell you. So what I'm trying to get at is that there's a lot of things going on to try to keep up the data as much as possible and try to just play the long game. So that's it for today. So look, that's all we have for this one. If you have liked this video, thumbs up, subscribe all the stuff we do every day, all fun times. And we'll go from there. Now, if you want to stick around, I'm going to do the Q&A and I'll answer all of your burning questions to the best of my abilities. And we will go from there. Oh, and lastly, forgot to tell you, meet up in El Paso. That'll be this Wednesday, thinking like four or five o'clock. And I'll tell you the details. So today's Monday. So in two days of year in El Paso coming through, come by and say hi. Now I'll give you all the details later on.