 Let's get over to our man Mr. Tim Ord as we do each and every Thursday at 20 past the hour. You can reach Tim every trading day at www.ord-oracle.com and as you come over to our website at TFNN folks, you're going to see right on the front page under featured content, our man Mr. Tim Ord. You get that great looking guy right there and you have the S&P 500 June 8th. That's going to be next Thursday. We have Gold June 15th. Tim is going to be doing two workshops for us. Bottom line is that he's going to be going through the different indicators that he uses in order to trade this market each and every day. The first workshop folks, bottom line next week, it's $295. All you can go to both of them for $495. You can take your pick. So go over to our website at TFNN, real easy, just sign up right there and you are off to the races. Tim Ord, what's going on? Great. You're talking about that picture. The picture is probably 25 years old. I love that picture. I know. Exactly like that. That's a beautiful thing, man. Yeah, beautiful thing. So we'll keep it. But yeah, I think you have some charts. Yeah. Anyhow, I just wanted to show where we are on the S&Ps and we'll start with chart one. I can go back a lot more in time, but the whole thing kind of remains the same. So I went back several years and the first chart, is that the McCall and Oslata? Yeah, McCall and Oslata, which is the top window and shows past the bottom in 19, anyhow, in a nutshell, the whole thing is panicked again and there's different indicators you can use to find where panic is. And you really want to basically be along when everybody is heading to the exit door. You want to be the guy on the other side going in. Right. So you've got a lot of different indicators kind of get you pretty close to that level to find out where, you know, the opportune time to really go into the entrance, I guess. So there's a pretty good indicator for that. It's not perfect, but it's pretty good. But when you get up, I'm sorry, that's all right. So we're looking at that chart, right? Did you say that the panic came at the beginning of March? Is that what we're talking here? For which bottom? Well, that's what I'm trying to figure out. That's what I'm asking, right? Was it at the bottom of the consolidation that we just broke out of, or was it at the bottom of March? Or was it at the bottom? I know what you're saying. Actually, we'll lead right up to a look. Go back to that bottom in 2019. Okay. And my point is, well, McCall and Oskler was below minus 300, now it's kind of like a climax. Then you need a rally to show a sign of strength, just like we said last time. You've got to have a selling climax, and right after it, you've got to have a sign of strength. A sign of strength, as far as McCall and Oskler, this is NYC McCall and Oskler. That's go from minus 300 to plus 300, usually within 30 days. Okay. And that's what happened in 2019, and again, that happened in March of 2020. I get it. The COVID crash, I guess you might say. Then what we had here in the current time frame, we had a McCall and Oskler hit below, actually hit minus 420 in October of last year, then went to a sign of strength above plus 300. And again, it went back, it looks like about March or April, probably March of this year, hit below 300 again, and early April, it went back above 300. My point of this, we had two buying and selling climaxes in that buying process, in the current buying process, which basically started last October. Yes. So that's pretty rare, you can go back far as you want, you really, I can't remember finding two, but this time we got two selling climaxes, two buying climaxes. So this market's pretty persistent. You know, I tried to go down again, went to a selling climax, so we got two, to me, this has more power, it's kind of hard to understand. No, no, no, hey, this is awesome, this is what we're going to go through, because it's so cool here, folks, watch this, I'm going to put this, that's why I was asking Tim this question. Because when you put this up, that's how much fear there actually was only on the March pullback, which only got to 3808. So that's pretty cool in the context of what you're talking about, Tim. You see what I mean? It's like, okay, you think that when you're talking about panic, that would have to go a lot lower than that, but the fact of the matter is there was panic in the marketplace, and we didn't get out that much, but of course, what matters is that how fast people are selling, correct? Right, there you go, you're exactly right, so we didn't even reach down to the October lows, we went down for eyeballing, here it looks like a couple, three weeks, the old panic exploded to the downside. That's so cool, man. The market is what I'm saying is, this implies this market really resilient. Right. And so it's got some power to it, you know, it's, you know, previous times when you got down, just one time, selling climax to a buying, selling climax to a buying climax, you know, that was the bottom, you went straight up. Right, and here we got two, so I'm thinking, you know, this market has more power to it. There's another thing, too, everybody's talking about the market is whatever, you know, basically the market doesn't really, the market, the more money you put into the economy, which is what the current president is kind of doing, a lot of that money is going to fly its way into the market. Yes. As long as that money supply is expanding or accelerating, you're not going to have a bear market. When they start taking money out of the economy is when the market really starts to peek out and go down. So as long as money supply is kind of expanding here, no matter how bad the news is about the economy, there's too much money in the economy, I think, for the market to go down. Right, even though what is happening is that there is money coming out, but there's more money going in, too. I'm with you. I get it. I get it. Trust me, I know. So I'm saying that's how bear markets are going to go. So our next president, it was Biden again when the market may continue, what the next president could be. We don't know, but if they restrict the money supply, I think that'll be the time you start getting a pullback. And the indicators will show it, too. Right. So betting out, this looks really good. In my opinion, the market tries to go down. It can't reach its panties. And the smart money comes in and rebies it. So the smart money bought over the last approximately six months or so. They bought twice. Yes. And so the public, in my opinion, is kind of out of the market. They're afraid of it. And the smart money is buying it. Yes. Now listen, this is kind of intriguing, Tim, in the context of what happened yesterday, right? So yesterday, I'm in the weeds here on this, but the bottom line is that all the indices, like they went down and the volume exploded. Yeah. So it's like, how do you look at that? Well, actually, you've got to watch. They're really going to take out. It didn't quite meet the standards. But every time you get a 30% increase, say the market's going along at 100 million shares a day, approximately, 80 to 110 or something, and all of a sudden, the market explodes and has 130 million shares. That doesn't matter. It's up or down. But the volume expands like 30% or more compared to the days around it. A lot of times, that's an exhaustion move, whether it's up or down. The market will at least stop because all that energy is wasted. You have a 30% increase in jumping energy. That's going to stop the market. And that's what happened yesterday. It didn't really expand 30%. No, it was just in the close. I know. 30% from the previous day. Stay right there, Tim. We're coming right back. Stay right there, folks. Come right back. Welcome back, folks, to Dow. Dow Industrial is right now at 183 Nasdaq's up 171. SAP's are up 39. We're talking about, man, Mr. Tim Moore. And Tim's going to be doing a workshop for us, folks. Next Thursday, 4 to 6 o'clock, you can sign up for that right on the front page of TFN. You're going to see it right under featured content. OK, Tim, so do you want me to go to the next shot now? Yeah, this is kind of a, we keep talking about panning. There's a lot of different types. Go to chart number two. OK. And I just want to show there is a VIX, the VIX is the volatility index, and there's a VVIX, which is the VIX of the VIX. Yes. And you can actually substitute the VVIX for the VIX. But anyhow, it seems to work for whatever reason, the VVIX seems to work better to find short-term lows. OK. And anyhow, when the VIX goes up, that's kind of like everybody's on the put side. That's how the VIX is kind of an option-related indicator. And puts are, when the acceleration and put value, that means people are paying up for puts, and it means that they're scared of the market. Actually, I don't want to get a bunch of details into it, but a VIX is a good fear indicator. Right. Because that way, and the VIX and VVIX is also as good as the VIX. Yes. What I got here, the second window down from the top is the VVIX. And the bottom, OK, the second window up from the bottom is the rate of change, the two-period rate of change of the VIX or of the VVIX. Right. So it measures the acceleration of the VIX. Yes. So the faster the VIX goes up, that means there's panic in the market. Yes. That's what VIX does. So it's another form of panic. It's kind of like the trend. Well, it's not even like the trend, but it's another fear indicator. It's another panic indicator. Right. So anyhow, so what I did on this, I combined the acceleration of the VVIX and compared that to the 10-day trend, which is when anything above 1.2 on the 10-day trend is showing panic. Yes. So anyhow, I went back over the last, I don't know, it looks like about a year here. And also, the top window is the RSI for the VIX. This is kind of another acceleration thing for the VIX. Yeah. So what you're trying to do is measure how fast the VIX goes up. And the faster the VIX goes up is a higher degree of fear. Nice. So it's another panic indicator. And when you look at this chart, folks, OK, that what Tim has when it says ROC, that's rate of change. That's what he's saying. This is pretty cool, Tim. Yeah, I got it. OK, cool. Yep. Yeah. And so the RSI, so anyhow, so I just went back and took the two-period rate of change of the VIX and compared that to the 10-day trend, just get more confirmation of a bottom. Because when you're stepping in front of a car at midnight, you know, you want to have some assurance that you're not going to get run over by the market. That's right. So you try to find good indicators that tell you where that car is going to stop before you get run over. Yes. And so that's what these charts are designed to do. But anyhow, if you look back in June of last year, you got the bottom window is the 10-day trend. And it's way above, it looks like, about high, around 1.4 or 5. Yeah. And the rate of change of the VIX was at extreme level. I can see that. 25. And the top windows RSI for the VIX didn't quite get to where you needed to go. But it did help you pick out the bottoms. So that's what these two indicators kind of do. You want to see fear in the trend. And you want to see the VIX rising rapidly. And so that's how you picked that shaded blue areas is where those VIX came in at. So that's how you get kind of confidence that up here, kind of a short-term trader, you don't do some moving averages away behind the time frame. You're picking where all the pain is happening at when you step in. Right. If we were watching television at that point, everyone would be saying, oh, we're going to hell in a handbag, right? That's what normally happens. Right, exactly what you want to hear. Right. Hell in a handbasket. You go look at your indicators and see where they are. And make sure they're in that hell in a handbasket. They are. You step in. Right. So that's the reason why my seminars or webinars are all going to be kind of panic. There's a lot of type of different panic indicators that you use, the VVIX, the trend, the tech. And getting to understand these folks is so cool. Because when you combine them, I can tell you that, as I told you last week, the first workshop that Tim did for us, and I'm going back to 1994, 1994, that is, folks. Wow. You're getting pretty old, Tom. Hey, man, I start counting backwards at 60, Tim. Right now, I'm only 52. All right. There you go. I wish. Anyway, this is cool. That was 94. It was 94. Way back then, huh? Isn't that crazy? I know. God, that's 30 years ago. It is. It is. Almost 30. Crazy, man. That was fun time. That was. Actually, the first time I met you, I remember you picked me up at the airport. Yeah. And you had a Mercedes, which I thought was pretty cool. And you had a t-shirt on that had a graphic of a suit. Or maybe it was a tuxedo or something. Did I? It's been a wearing a sports jacket. And you had a t-shirt that had a suit on it. Oh, my gosh. I thought that was pretty cool. Unreal. Yeah. That is so funny, man. Totally. Yeah. This is so cool. So you want to go to the next shot? Yeah, we can go to the next chart. OK, oh, this is the Bollinger band one. This is a good one, man, too. We've always been, you've always been dealing with this. Do you remember when I, you know, I used to have the Bollinger on a lot. You know, when the market was running. Because I remember he was always talking about the aspect of, you know, and you can see it kind of in this shot, like at the beginning, when the market loves to run up Bollinger bands. And I remember asking him, Tim, saying, well, like, how long can this go? He says, well, man, he says, I've seen them climb on these bars and just keep going. And that's exactly what Yahoo did until it blew up. I mean, that's the question I remember asking him. But this, of course, was in the 90s before the whole market blew up. You know what I mean? Yeah. He's still out there. I mean, I gave up years ago. I gave a, I remember it was, I forgot his first Bob Bollinger, Bob. John Bollinger. John Bollinger, you're right. John Bollinger, it was Tom McCallan. Yeah. I don't know, but a few other guys, about 10 of us, we gave a, so I got to meet all those guys. It was in Las Vegas, I forget. Oh, fine. It was back in the 90s. Yeah. And everybody was kind of new to that, not new, but. McCallan-Oscar had been around for years because the dad kind of was really into it. And Tom was getting into it. But you know, besides the point, let's get back to this indicator here. This is a kind of, I think I showed this last week, if not the week before, but this is charts updated to current timeframe. And this is a weekly chart. And there's, all right, do you want me to come back? No, yeah, yeah, you stay right there, stay right there. This is Tim Ord, Tom O'Brien folks. Check out the front page of TFNN next Thursday, folks. It's going to be an amazing workshop, two hours. You're going to have an hour and a half of getting to understand what Tim is speaking about on these, and then you get a half hour of flat out. You're going to be talking back and forth, because that's what you need, folks, to really get these understood. Stay right there, Tim and I come right back. Welcome back, folks, to a doubt. Now it's up 116, now it's up 135. S&Ps are up 30. We're talking about, man, it's the Tim Ord. And right now we, the chart we have up, and we are going over is the Bollinger Band Pinch. There we go, Tim. All right, the bottom, this is the weekly SPX, right? Yes. Okay, the bottom window is the five week average of the SPX to VIX ratio. Okay. And we showed, I think they showed this a couple of weeks ago. Can't remember, I think, but it's kind of a repeat. I just wanted to show where we are and what's happening. Nice, yeah. When the weekly SPX makes higher highs and the five week average of the SPX VIX ratio makes lower highs, you're heading into a top. How cool is that? As far as you want with this. But the VIX is saying, the VIX is starting to go up as the SPs goes up. So when you both are going up, so what happens, the mark's going up and the VIX is going up showing that fear is starting to enter into the market. Yes. Now folks, yeah, that right there is worth the dollars for the workshop. Cause listen to what Tim's saying. That is so cool, Tim, it's amazing. Okay, I got it. Yeah. Yeah, so I think I wake up in the middle of the night thinking of these stupid things. And I go back and try to create charts to prove that point or disprove it. Yes. And I came up to have a couple of years ago and I went back and tested it. Didn't really work that well on a daily but it seemed to work really well on a weekly. Okay. But anyhow, it did work back at the, well actually the, yeah, the March of 2000 decline, which nobody, that was the COVID decline. Right. So nobody really, I was back there and I really didn't see a top-fitting consequence cause I didn't have this handicap at the time. But that picked out the COVID decline. Yeah. Cause if you can see there, the SPs were making higher highs. That ratio was going right down. And it picked another top in the, you know, the January of 2022. You know, you made a divergence there. So it's pretty cool because now you have the, you had indicators for the lows, you had indicators for the highs. And now talk to me about this Bowlinger being pinched above it. All right. But you're talking about the Bowlinger band pinch on the weekly SPX, right? Yes. Yes. Right. So we're starting to pinch together. Okay. So even though that, if you look how narrow the market's been over the last month, you know, month and a half, whatever, are actually since beginning April. So about two months. And the pinch is starting to really come together. So we're probably going to see acceleration. The pinch doesn't tell you what direction it's going to be. You just tell you the acceleration of low ball utility. You're going to head to high ball utility. Okay, cool. And so if you look down at the five week SPX fixed ratio, Yes. The S&P has been moving sideways basically since January of this year. Right. It just hadn't gone anywhere. It was February. That's how you look at it. Hadn't really gone anywhere. It went down, came back and kind of just hugging other January eyes right now. But the SPX fixed ratio is making higher highs. Right. So that's bullish. That's bullish. No, I get it. Yeah, for sure. You're going to break up, not down. Right. No, I'm with you. Because if it's the other way around, if the SPX was going sideways and the SPX fixed ratio is making lower highs and mean down. Yes. This is the opposite. So we're going sideways going up. So at some point, probably, I don't exactly what day or anything, you know, could be June, July. But we're probably going to see some sort of a decent surge. You know, whatever news is going to be, don't know yet. Right. There's a surge coming. And then if we go to the next shot, which is the daily percent index and the bullish percent index and all the gold miners. Okay. All right. We'll do that real quick. The whole point of this thing is that we still get four minutes, Tim. We get still four and a half minutes, so. We got four. Okay. Yeah. We got four. When you have the bullish percent index of the gold miners index, what it does is a major percent of stocks that are point and figure bicycles in the gold miners index. Oh, the point and figure. That's right, man. Okay. Cool. Okay. Yeah. It measures all the point and figure bicycles. So, you know, the top window there is a bullish percent index for the gold miners index. Every time it got to 95%, another 95% of the stocks in the gold miners index were on point and figure bicycles. Every time that happened at 95% or higher, the market was at the top. Yeah. Every time the market was down below 8% or less, in other words, only 8% of the stocks in the gold miners index were on bicycles and virtually nothing was on a bicycle. Only 8% of the stocks were at the bottom. And so when everybody gets really bullish, anyhow, right now, we did have that bullish percent index got down to 5% here back in late 2022, probably November or December. Okay. And that was bullish. And so that pretty much matched where the bottom was in the GDX here, that blue line going down. Right. So, that's my point. It picked out all the major bottoms, all set for one back in 2018. I had a red line there that was failed. And it's all the other ones were at the bottom. And folks, this is what's so cool about this. If you've never done point and figure, I used to have Tom Dorsey all the time and he was like the big point and figure guy. It's a lagging indicator that up or down. So it's so cool what Tim is doing here is that he's using that point and figure and you're getting the extreme. So it's pretty wild because when you look at it, yeah, you got a 95 on that scale. When they'd be saying, oh, bye, bye, bye. When in fact, oh, that's the sell, sell, sell and just the opposite, which is so cool. Okay, yeah. Right? Yeah, I know. Yeah, he's gonna do one of the opposite. Everybody else is doing it. No, for sure. No, no, I get it, man. Point and figure has always been good folks, okay? But it lags in a big way. So what Tim has with this ratio is huge because of the fact. I mean, I know point and figure pretty well. So when I had Dorsey on, I think he had, he had his own program, Dorsey had his own program. Okay, so let's go to the last one. All right, the last, let's see. I get the monthly GDX and the bowling jibans together. All right, here's a, so we got a bicycle on that because everybody dumped all their gold stocks back in, say, November of last year. And this is the cumulative advanced decline on the monthly, cumulative advanced decline percent for GDX on the monthly time frames. And it's a great obstacle later to keep in bull and bear markets. So it doesn't get very many signals. The signals it does get is pretty, that's pretty awesome. But the bottom window is the up-down volume advanced climbing indicators. And it goes back as far as I could go back. But what it did is pretty much match what happened in the 2016 lows. It got down there in 2019. And again here, we're just airing it again. It did cross back up above the mid-bowl and span, which is what my bicycle was created, but it turned back down again. But it's pretty much matching the lows. So I'm thinking we're pretty extreme to the downside here. Okay. And so the up-down volume did give a bicycle but turned back down. But it's gone sideways since mid last year. It really had made any lower lows. It just moved sideways. And it's pretty much matching the lows 2016 and 2019. The next chart above it is a, anyhow, it's actually above the mid-bowl and derban which is on a bi-signal. So and the bowling derbans are starting to squeeze. Nice. Well, listen Tim, this is a pleasure. As always, absolutely fabulous. And of course we look forward to the workshop next week. Thank you. Stay right there folks. We'll come right back.