 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network The matchups are now set for both the NBA and the Stanley Cup Finals as game one approaches for both those series We're gonna break down both of them Let you know where to find value in the series prices and get ready for game one in the NBA Between the heat and the nuggets by talking to Tom of Vecchio breaking down his thoughts on both these series and his favorite Bets right now over at Fandall sportsbook. This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire comm My name is Jim Sadas. I'm a senior writer and analyst for number fire Joined here as mentioned by Tom of Vecchio You can check about on Twitter at DFS underscore Tom and find all of his work over at number fire comm and Tom The series have been set and it is going to be a glorious couple weeks here. How you doing today? I'm doing great. Thanks for having me Yeah, this is this is it the seasons are coming to a close I would say we have two really good matchups and you know despite what people may say in terms of underdogs making it You know to eight seats in both sports. This is awesome both these teams deserve to be here I am very excited for these matchups to start. Yeah, I don't think you can look at the path The heat went through and say they don't deserve to be here eight seed or not. I don't care what their seed was Taking out the one seed taking out the Celtics That path was legitimate and they're fun to watch I know that like they're not like the biggest names But like they're enjoyable and that's kind of all I care about is like I don't care You know like I don't know enough about like NBA legacy to know like care about Celtics Lakers stuff like that I just like watching fun teams and I feel like both the heat in the Nuggets are very different reasons do check that box Yeah, I Enjoy seeing different types of teams win and you know a lot of people talk about the Nuggets Where they're like a no frills team They just kind of get the job done and there's like no hype or there's no drama around them But they're awesome and you're to be for multiple years of building to get here It's it's gonna be an awesome series and you look at just does some stupid stuff in a fun way like I mean like I mean that in a complimentary fashion like he does some stupid stuff So like it's fun no matter like what the route is to it So I'm excited for both these series. We're gonna get Tom's read on the series prices As I said, we'll talk about game one two as well between the heat and the Nuggets to get Tom's read on that to get you ready Which should be a fun week for both the NBA and NHL the first day reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast we had Brandy Goodula on yesterday breaking down the Memorial tournament firm a PGA perspective the time stamp for that is in the episode description Over on number fire So check out that and see jump ahead to the PGA discussion if you want to get some bets in for Before the first tea times coming up for tomorrow tomorrow have some NFL thoughts here talking about the way schedules break down We'll talk some NASCAR and talk some F1 all in the same place as well So make sure subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts make a fast break to fandal during the NBA playoffs Because right now new customers get a no-sweat first bed up to $1,000 That's $1,000 back in bonus bets if your first bet doesn't win There is no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Fandal official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states first online real money Wager only $10 deposit required refund issued is non withdrawal bonus bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply at seafold terms at fandal.com sportsbook Fandals offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 533-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-777-7 or visit ccpg.org says chat in Indiana 1-800 9 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-800 522 4700 or in Kansas KS gambling help calm Louisiana's 1-877 770 stop in Massachusetts gambling helpline MA org or call 800 327 5050 for 24 7 support in Maryland MD gambling help that org in West Virginia in New York 1-877 78 hope and why or text open why and in West Virginia go to 1-800 gambler net Let's start things off here by talking about the NBA side of things Tom talking about the heat in the nuggets and We'll talk about the markets in a second But I just want to get your overall read on this matchup How do these two teams match up for you when you look at them as they face each other This is always an interesting question and I'm not sure there are many teams or players that match up well against Yolk itch, but what we do know is that Eric Spolstra for the heat Great coach all-time coach go in the hall of fame all these sorts of things. He's great at making adjustments He's a great. He's great at trying to neutralize what the opposing team does best and you know part of this and What I may believe might happen will lead me to one of the props We're gonna talk about a little in a few minutes And ultimately that comes down to look what happens if the heat try and fully sell out and Take Yolk itch out of the game as much as possible now We absolutely it's a little bit of green assaults because Yolk itch is still gonna have an impact But like what if they go all out to stop Yolk itch? What does that series look like? What do the nuggets on offense look like and where does that present value? So I think we're gonna see a very like Direct and concerted effort from the heat to try and eliminate Yolk itch Especially with him passing the ball and I think that should try and limit some of their offense of opportunities overall for the nuggets And that leads me to a prop which again, we'll get to yes Let's actually take a look at the markets here because right now the heat are plus 330 To win this series over at Fandall sportsbook and the heat have been underdogs this entire time So see them at plus 340 now. That's not a huge shock But tell them they keep on upending expectations and you mentioned Eric's bolster as a coach He kind of deserves the benefit of the doubt here I think in a lot of ways you can have some faith in rational coaching which is not always the case in any sports So when you look at the series price, do you think it's appropriate or are we under selling the heat once again? I think it's pretty appropriate. You know if it got lower and I do have interest in it as I said last week I have the heated 18 to 1 I've interested in this price if it got lower than 300 I probably wouldn't go near but I think it's at a pretty solid spot right now And I know what everyone's gonna say. Oh the heat, you know by every metric imaginable regular stats advanced stats They were worse than the Celtics and the Celtics should have won that well. Yeah, that's probably true But the heat are doing it in a small sample size And that's and the point that I'm making is that it may not be sustainable for 82 games But it is sustainable for 10 or 15 games, which they're clearly showing So I think this price is great and I have a ton of interest in that I have a ton of interest in the heat at plus 9 for game one I have a ton of interest in the heat as long as they're gonna be you know 67 8 point underdogs in every single game. Is it sustainable for 82 games? Probably not is this is sustainable for 10 or 15 20 games. Yes, and it clearly is So when you're talking about plus 340, let's assume pretend you don't have a 10 to 1 in your pocket for the heat Would you add plus 340 if you were in that situation? Yeah, okay, I mean I am I'm full on the heat. Okay. I'm on the heat I'll be on the heat basically on every game as long as it's not just like plus two Right and it is plus nine in game one. We'll get to that here in a second you mentioned that you were analysis of Hoping that the heat tried to negate yokich plays into a prop you like for this series So looking at the props think you do in general a very good job of dissecting the optimal market for buying into certain teams When you take that assumption applied to the market where are you seeing value right now? That assumption as I said, I think that leads me directly to Jamal Murray MVP prop at 12 to 1 okay, because the first off the the prices for these the MVP odds are dramatic and And and and yokich rightfully deserves a ton of credit for everything that he's doing You know averaging a triple double all these sorts of things, but that price compared to the others is it jumps off the page And I know it's not in a good way So again if we're going under at least this is just my personal assumption like what happens if the heat sell out and try And eliminate yokich as much as possible Where does the nuggets offense go from there? And this is also again It's somewhat on the assumption that you do think the nuggets will win Right you do think that they are the better team so Although I have the heat to win I do Understand that the nuggets are in an awesome team and if that leads me to saying okay Yes, the nuggets can win this series, but the heat are still going to do a very good job That leads me to Jamal Murray at 12 to 1 Which again the odds imply that it's yokich as this elite option and then it's kind of just all these role players on the floor with him That's not really the case Jamal Murray is awesome So if I like the the nuggets to win I think this is somewhat of a hedge off of the bet that I have at what I'm going to say here is awesome value Murray can go up there and drop 30 points every game And do you think that the heat have the the bodies to Negate yokich or is it mostly just just faith in Eric's polstra that that makes you think there's a path to Murray being like the guy for this series It's a bit of both bam out of bio is a good defensive center He's always up at the top of the market when it comes to defensive player of the year But yokich is better on offense and better at what he does then at a bio is on defense and not bio is a very good defender I also think in just an overall scheme if bam out of bio is him getting in foul trouble Just because again, they're trying to sell out to guard yokich This is gonna have me very interested game by game and bam out of bio Unders points under rebound just because he may not be on the court a lot They're gonna have to rotate in zealot and rotate in Kevin love So it's just it's gonna be an overall mindset of saying if I believe the heat are gonna do this How can I extrapolate that to all of these props throughout the entirety of the series? Again, it's Murray MVP Unders on bam on a bio Okay, so we're liking Jamal Murray MVP at 12 to 1 now other I think noteworthy MVP market is Jimmy Butler at plus 430 because the heat to win the series are plus 340 What are the odds Tom that they win this series Jimmy Butler is not the finals MVP? Well, I was gonna bring that up But I just curious do we always can we always find those differentials of saying like, you know If you got my homes at you know four to one to win the MVP and the should have been Isaiah Pacheco You know and the chiefs were what were they minus one ten or minus 120. It's like well if the chiefs win You know, we're getting my homes is probably gonna win MVP So why not just bet on MVP or whatever? So I think that this is exactly along the same lines where if you like the heat to win You might as well just bet Jimmy at for was it four and a half to one or or plus four four thirty Yeah, plus 430 because that's better than the plus 330 or plus 340 price. So just go with Jimmy I'm I'm totally on board with if X happens. How does that get accomplished? Well, it's probably because Jimmy's doing a lot Right. So Yoke it just minus 340 in the MVP market butler is plus 430 Murray 12 to 1 and The heavy heavy enthusiasm around Yoke it is what leads to Tom potentially seeing value there in both Butler plus 430 But Murray primarily is the big one at 12 to 1 Let's shift our focus now and talk specifically about game 1 out in Denver But the nuggets as 9 point favorites total in this game is 2 19 and a half and Tom When you look at game you said you have interest in the heat plus 9 is that the primary read for you on game 1 anything else They're not you here Yeah, definitely be taking the heat at plus 9. I Ultimately, I expect either game 1 or game 2 we're gonna see a lot of scoring I think we're gonna have a little bit of an outburst just because the energy the excitement Whatever might be we're gonna have a bit of an outburst in game 1 and then that's the time that I'm just gonna Lean on unders for the rest of the series. I think the market will overreact You know, we have seen the heat shoot well from three We have seen the nugget shoot well from three, you know to this point the playoff So maybe they stay hot a little bit and then we will see adjustments as the series goes on so if we see like a 220 212 fine excuse me 120 1 12 final in the first game or second game That's the point that I want to start shifting to a lot of unders because I think that's just a natural thing Given the coaches that we have so I do like the heat in game one and again I'll be taking them at at six plus basically every single game as long as they're there So we look at the props here. You mentioned the adabio unders under the assumption that maybe you know He's just going hard against yokich and stuff like that that could restrict things What do you use the optimal market for taking unders there for adabio? Are you just kind of looking at PRA bets to kind of encompass everything? What do you think it's the best route for an adabio under it would be PRA or points Unders on rebounds are obviously a little bit fluky because he could be out there You know just grabbing rebounds in terms of the I think the points is a little bit safer because they may not make him the focal point of the offense Right because wherever they might be doing In turn, you know getting the ball to kill Martin who's been good I was like Jimmy's getting plenty of looks done the Robinson coming off the bench Wherever might be points is probably my least favorite or points and probably my favorite to go And it's not what they're gonna be doing. PRA is definitely on the table as well. If I had to choose one I know probably just come down to points. Yeah points is under 16 and a half is minus 120 to PRA is a 28 and a half right now For adabio so shop around there Maybe you can apply the Jamal Murray assumption to game one as well If you think that Spolster comes into the great game plan for game one and things like that Any final thoughts for you on this series Tom before we head over to the enemy at the NHL Yeah, I do like Michael Porter, Jr. Over 15 and a half points for this game one He's been shooting the ball well from three, you know throughout the playoffs. It's right at 40% Which is certainly high, but that's where his season average was that's basically where his career average was so he's not Overperforming underperforming in any way. This is a prop that again I would look to take early in the series because as it shifts and we see you know more and more defensive changes That's where we start to lean on unders but he's shooting the ball 8 9 10 3 is a game and even if he's inefficient in some capacity 3 of 10 from the field, which is obviously below his average He's still gonna be able to get to a spot where he should be at be at this mark And this also kind of goes under that assumption of I'm expecting higher scoring in game one or game two So I want to kind of take props that reflect that and then shift to unders as we move on Okay So Tom is on the heat plus nine potentially heat to win the series looking at Jamal Murray and VP 12 to 1 Jimmy buckets and VP at plus 430 as well and then checking out some props there with some bam out of bio unders But Michael Porter Jr. All over 15 and a half points minus 1 22 right now over at Fandall sports book Let's shift focus now and talk about the NHL the Stanley Cup finals are set here between the Vegas Golden Knights and the Florida Panthers There has been some interest in the Panthers because the Golden Knights were minus 140 yesterday They are now minus 135 to win the Stanley Cup. So Tom looking in the series prizes first Anything you like for the Knights and the Panthers. What's your overall read on this series? well, right from the jump the lines are too efficient at this point to have interest in either team and Ultimately, I think it's gonna be a bit of a coin flip especially how we see both of these teams playing So because I've no interest in this side That leads me to probably total games of what we're gonna be seeing and it's you know six games I think is has been my sweet spot for a while where I don't care who wins. It's six games It's not like we're gonna see a team sweep, you know, plus 198. I think is a good spot for total games You know, it's what we should be expecting in the Stanley Cup four games is not not enough five games Not enough. We rarely see Stanley Cup finals going seven games and then we can get it there So it's under total games about halfway down. Yeah, so I like it a plus one idea. I don't think it should be too much longer I think it has the best probability of hitting based on where we see some of these odds lying. I Don't have a particular take on who's gonna be winning and I think this kind of falls in line with I'm expecting good series I don't care about the outcome. I'm shooting for a decent amount of plus money here Yeah, it's plus five for 580 for a sweep. So that's good. That's encouraging You know, we don't want that we don't want to deprive ourselves of hockey too quickly here plus 198 for six games plus 194 47 games. So We're not buying into any of the series prices. That's kind of the one read on The the series props but any other like angles you're going into with this series Tom any particular players you think could be in a good position any It's specific assumptions you like going into the series. What are you looking at here for these two teams? So if you two sections above is series total goals, yeah, which is at 33 and a half So that's you know, assuming a five and a half total for every game And if this goes in line with how many games I expect the series to go I think we can kind of use these markets together to You know kind of extrapolate, okay If it's gonna be go if you think it's gonna be going seven games, you should be taking the over I think this is a clear under if we get that five and a half line at exactly six games Now, of course if it if some team sweeps or goes on in five games We're gonna be sitting pretty because we're gonna be in a pretty good spot Based on how both goalies are playing right now specifically Bob Rofsky for the Panthers He's performing at a level. We've basically never seen and you know digging into some of his advanced stats We're looking at goal save above expected on this, you know, 12 15 game stretch wherever it is throughout the playoffs He's performing at a level, you know, we've literally never seen from goalies looking back 10 plus years Since we've had this goal save above expected data through any point of any goal regular season or playoffs He's performing at such a high level and Aiden Hill on the other side for Vegas Just given the way that they play defense which I talked about time and time again They do such a good job at insulating him and protecting him because the system that they use with Bruce Cass They had coach for Vegas is just so strong top-to-bottom that he's always going to be in a good spot to succeed We saw it in game six against Dallas. They had a shutouts in a Series-clenching game when Dallas needed to sell out for every goal every shot and they couldn't even score a goal So because we have these two goalies and really strong systems overall I love the under and it's gonna be under in every single game And it's gonna be under in total goals in the series and it's gonna be six games because I think all this lines up The total goals market as you mentioned 33 and a half minus 110 is the under on that one And I think the reason that that is a fun way to go Tom is that there are multiple paths because you mentioned It could be a sweep. We don't know if it's a sweep You're probably hitting the under here because 33 and a half goals in four games is tough to get to you have multiple paths even if the Sweep is not the most likely scenario plus 580 is still, you know, 13 or set percent of or so implied all a little bit higher I'm trying to map them the fly which is not my my strength But like it's a decent chance which gives you one path there or it could be just, you know, Bob Rosski He's playing out his mind the Vegas defense keeps doing what they've been doing I like that there are multiple paths there now The total for game one is five and a half minus 104 on the under and it sounds like based on what you're saying That's you as a pretty strong bet as well. Absolutely and again, the this is We saw it in the I would say specifically in the Keynes Panthers series where the and the quote that Paul Maurice the head coach for the Panthers used at his introductory press conference last year when he was hired was last year the Panthers won the president's trophy They were literally one of the best offenses in the league and they got kind of bodied by the lightning in the playoffs last year And what he said in his press conference was I don't want to put mud tires on a Ferrari referring to their offense He said they have to learn how to drive in the rain. That was a quote that he used he says like they're an awesome offense We can't hinder that but we just have to play a little bit different when it comes to the playoffs being able to adjust to different outcomes and different elements and that's what they're doing where instead of just being this all-out offense they're being an offense that is Very like very calculated and they're taking the right risks and instead of just selling out for winning games seven to five They're trying to win games three to one or two to one So I love the under and that really reflects everything with way Bob Ross. He's playing the way Aiden Hill is playing I'll sign me up every day Mud tires on a Ferrari. That's what he says like you don't want to they have such an Last year their offense was unbelievable and they added Matthew Goodchuck and he's saying you don't want to Like you can't force Patrick Mahomes to run the ball 40 times Yeah, right you have to let him shine But you also have to let him shine when it's appropriate taking the deep shots when it's necessary and when the circumstances allow it And that's what the Panthers learned how to do this year. They learned how to fight for Better goals instead of every goal, right? And that's you know keeping with the Ferrari thing and talking formula one That's why Max first up and ran away with the Formula one title last year Is he found out when to push what not to he had a fast enough car where he could do that? But like, you know, that's the skill learning how to do that learning how to Do at the right pace not always be a hundred percent It's it's definitely a skill. Okay, so looking at some low-scoring series here for Knights and Panthers any final Final thoughts for you on this Stanley Cup finals top one player prop for leading goal scorer throughout the series and I think this is interesting because You know Theoretically it is Independent of the outcome of the series There is some correlation say if this player scoring a lot that team should be winning games Therefore that could indicate you of which way you you know, you would lean in the series but Jonathan Marsha show at seven and a half to one is Really really interesting. He has nine goals, which is the second most on Vegas Throughout 17 games William Carlson has ten goals Leading Vegas Matthew good Chuck also has nine goals for the Panthers and his odds are Order his odds there So that that also again that differential I think it's pretty massive when they have the exact same amount of goals Throughout the playoffs So I like taking that little bit of a longer shot of a player who plays on the top six who plays on the first Power play who is a primary shooter now? This is somewhat again contradictory to me saying I don't have a specific take this would again lead me to Vegas slightly If I'm expecting Marsha show to be a high score But we need a Vegas slightly is also not at the markets because the markets have Vegas at minus 135 So it's not like you're taking a stand there You're just saying the markets are efficient and theoretically Marsha show could lead the series, but the Panthers still win sure exactly So I kind of like this just to have a player prop rooting interest throughout the entirety of the series Okay, so March or so is 750 to lead the series in goal scoring over at Fandall sportsbook But Tom it's gonna be a fun ride across both this NBA and the Stanley Cup finals. Thank you for joining me once again I appreciate it have some fun I'm sure we'll check back in with you next week talk more about The series as they continue but until then has some fun watching these appreciate your insights as always and good luck with your bets They're game one on Thursday. Thanks for having me. Alrighty check out Tom on Twitter at DFS underscored Tom check out his work over at number fire I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis J. I am SNNES want to thank you all for tuning in for today back again tomorrow talking to NFL schedule analysis and Also talking to NASCAR and F1 for this weekend. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual pod cast network