 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180.com and welcome to this week's supply and demand forex and gold fundamental and technical Analysis if you're new a very very warm welcome to you and if you're returning an equally warm welcome to you And please don't forget to like subscribe and share With your fellow trading colleagues This video and all my other videos on my YouTube page Support the channel by liking and subscribing It's a free way to support the channel and really gets the quality content to the top of the YouTube lists and recommendations so Again, just a quick one about trading 180 in our process is really where applying fundamental analysis to establish Directional bias and then apply technical analysis strategies are supplying the mass strategies to time the market time trade entries, I guess and risk management and establish profit targets So we're using the best really of both worlds to make the best trading decisions. So starting off with the guess the calendar and the week ahead ahead on trading economics and I guess there's the little snapshot here, but I'll get into some of the the paragraphs down below in the week ahead talks about stocks and Also speeches from the Fed officials US consumer sentiment UK UK's Mars GDP That's going to be important Data and Eurozone industrial production will be closely watched finally it will be a busy week which with in China with inflation figures and trade data taking central stage so getting a bit more into The details so in the US CPU our report is expected to show an annual inflation Rate eased to 8.1 from 41 year high of 8.5 So the Federal Reserve are really Hoping that that is the case if inflation can ease off a little bit obviously and Yeah, because it gives really the economy time to grow right as well the Fed actually don't want to high crates but and an increased borrowing and lending costs So they're really hoping that The the dollar has increased or appreciated in value to the point where it starts to bring inflation down and hopefully it's not just a pullback in it rather the beginning of a new trend to the downside in March while the core rate is seen falling to six from six point five Still the inflation is not expected to fall to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon and will remain above the Fed's 2% target, you know, we talk about this inflation target not just the Fed. It's general generally, you know, most Western central banks that have a 2% inflation target for for a long time as supply disruptions persist and energy prices remain Elevated investors will also keep a close eye on the batch of speeches from Fed officials So that obviously lets the market know what the Fed is thinking about monetary policy Then there's other releases producer prices trade price indexes preliminary readings And someone is so for let me see and there's nothing really elsewhere in America. No, not that one. And then the UK Will be publishing preliminary Estimates of first quarter GDP and it's gonna again actually be important because as we'll discuss a bit further The the the Bank of England are in a bit of a Most central banks are but the Bank of England more so talking about stagflation and being hit One of the hardest hit in terms of economic growth. So it kind of puts them in a really difficult situation because typically central banks shouldn't be hiking rates as as GDP is slowing down, right? And that's what's known as stagflation Anyway, so that's going to be very interesting to see what the effects of you know, the Ukraine war as well as Inflation is going to have and cost of living crisis is going to have on the economy and business investment data alongside foreign trade balance industrial production and construction output for March so the British economy likely grew 1% in the first quarter easing from a 1.3% expansion at the end of last year due to the decline in household income. So we're potentially seeing a bit of a a Although they use the word grew a bit of a decline and and an easing in the in the the growth numbers and it says elsewhere in Europe factory activity in euro in the euro area probably declined in March When most of the impact of the Ukraine war started to be reflected also German investor Morale is seen falling for the third consecutive month Germany being Europe's powerhouse So Germany have definitely watched when it comes to a lot their economic data remaining lowest level since March 2020 and other key data include their ZDW economic resentment Germany final inflation figures France in Italy and so on and so forth so Yeah, things to really kind of think about When it comes to fundamentals and I'll get into guess my biases now when we start talking about the technicals and going forward and starting off on the dollar index dollar index We start off on and I tend to Keep the analysis on Generally every week but this week I will take it off start it again and just you know drawing some fresh demand zones or supply zones So demand is demand here and in fact we draw it down here And I think from from a dollar index perspective and the dollar index is just a measure of dollars jumped against major currencies If we zoom out then if you are buying the dollar on any of the other dollar crosses Just realize that you are you know buying that expensive areas Ultimately, you really want to wait for pullbacks as confluence, right? You don't necessarily have to but it's you know waiting for demand zones on the dollar index as confluence It's always nice to have right and it gives you a Nice perspective as to whether the dollar is actually expensive against various other currencies or if you know You want to be buying a bargains, which is ultimately what you wanted to be doing, right? So looking at some of the fundamental analysis and the Fed officials defend policies say forward guidance is working so You know walla and bullets a Fed guidance has had Substantial impact and barking declines to take 75 basis point hike off the table. So again to get inflation down central banks have to hike interest rates and so There was talk about the Fed basically being behind the curve and it should have hiked sooner to keep inflation down Inflation wouldn't be where it is. Oh Wait So With that, you know, there's a bit of pushback on that on that argument So two of the Federal Reserve's most hawkish policymakers defended the central bank on Friday against charges They had fallen well behind the curve in fighting inflation and so Fed governor Christopher Waller and St. Louis Fed Bank president James Bullard argued that critics don't Take enough account of the tightening of financial conditions that the Fed Engineered even before it began raising rates in March So the fact that they're still talking about rate hikes for now and they're on that hiking cycle Which can you know last for a while and when I say a while, you know Could be could start to last maybe a year or two, right? Just to get inflation back down to a two percent target You know that the point in this article was really to understand what they're thinking and what they're looking to do with monetary policy So they're looking to again Still to continue to hike rates this year So the Fed goes marching markets see the Fed quickening rate increases this year, right? So with that being said for me, you know, the Fed or pretty much ahead of most central banks So any pullbacks for me are buying opportunities into, you know, certain zones buying at highs is not something that I You know like to do or will do anyway because you're buying expensive areas Even if prices go higher, that's fine, right? And then I'll just wait for a pullback But the point is is that my bias is to still buy the the dollar on the you know, dollar yen dollar Swiss for example And look for demand zones and those currencies some pullbacks decent pullbacks from those currencies and talking about those currencies getting into the dollar yen Again looking at the technicals just looking at daily We've got that area there as a decent area to look for any kind of long trades also have Demand zone right here as well. Does that hidden demand? No, not yet So any pullbacks I think is into that into that 128 127 area is probably gonna be decent for a potential buy And even better still would be the 122121 area don't know whether it's gonna get down there anytime soon It could the yen on the other hand are you know looking at this This exchange rate has been a bit problematic they don't really need the the end to Decreasing value so So they are looking to potentially intervene or already intervening at the 130 in between, you know Reports from bank analysis that have said that even 135 could be potentially the the ceiling So you could actually see prices pulled back and still move up to the upside when it comes to the dollar yen But either way still gonna be a buyer of the dollar for now Because the Bank of Japan are again just behind the curve and actually quite dovish as well when it comes to Their monetary policy Moving and again if you would do want to be a seller. Let's look at the cells There is lower highs lower lows being made here So there is a supply zone there not necessarily the strongest supply in the world And again for me if you are getting short here You would have to really understand why that the yen is a bargain against the dollar Which is gonna be very hard to justify for me fundamentally So part of these resistance is to the upside again not financial advice just telling you what my bias is Dollar Swiss again same thing as the dollar yen. We've made higher highs here And Again just looking for some pullback since it's been a very you know strong Trending again, it's not hard to tell and hard to see why when you consider both central bank monetary policies So any pullbacks into a zone Especially the lower end of the demand zone is gonna be definitely buying opportunities For me anyway, and let's see what happens you know in these zones and Yeah, I think the Swiss Frank again probably better than the than the yen in terms of the way their central bank is in Their monetary policy and even you know their economy, but But the dollar still you know the best out of the two if you're looking at any kind of short trades There is we are Pretty much a decent high. I'm looking at an area Supply quite a wide area of supply to be fair, but You've caught that area. So we've come into the zone, but again for me Just because prices, you know dropped from here back in March 2020, which was which would have been the Corona virus to start of the coronavirus or you know the peak of that Who you know who's to say that prices are gonna drop, you know here the same reason, right? It's not the same, you know, we're not in the same Economic environment so prices can you know go straight through that supply zone If they want to obviously there's probably looking at potential profit-taking Because prices have literally been on a you know, couple a hundred pit tear a few hundred pips Maybe we'll say maybe but looking at from the low to the highest probably about nearly 800. I would say Yeah, 700 pips To the upside of really any any any pullback. So there is I guess Potential pullback coming in if it comes in that's gonna be the first area to look for potential long trades Dollar CAD dollar CAD is again a very interesting one Typically not a trade idea that I would look towards taking fundamentally, but in the group we've discussed Various reasons as to why I want to be actually short on this currency pair I'm not gonna go into the potential set up Or the setup that we're looking at because it's beyond the scope of of this video, but Ultimately pretty looking for some short trades in and around this 130 zone Just above that there is a supply zone just there as well So the 130s are is really the area to look for for me We're looking for any kind of a short trades If you do want to be a buyer of the US dollar at this point in time There is demand zone in and around that area And when you get wide demand zones by the way, you can just break them down into Different areas of support and resistance. So just finding out where they'll support my distance I'll within that wide zone. I do think in fact that That lower zone here is gonna be quite nice for a potential buy technically Because if you go down into a maybe something like a one-hour time frame chart You can see where within that demand zone prices touched several times, right? You've got a level there and if prices do come down, I do think in fact that's Actually, I would say it's decent. It's not the most decent Area to get into but if we're supporting resistance trade over you think that You know that the more times a level is touched the stronger it becomes I don't believe that so I believe it It's the weaker it becomes You know then that's basically the area to look for any kind of long trades In fact, I'm more interested in the zone just below that area, which is gonna be here This is where I'm probably more interested in Just that zone below there So, yeah, there's a bit of an area there that I'm interested in so that 127 round number is what I would be looking for To get long If I was looking to get long that is but I'm looking actually at short trades So let's see what happens on that dollar CAD moving back to the daily And then New Zealand dollar US dollar The commodity currencies generally typically don't do well in the risk-off environment, which we are in at the moment And then the the dollar does acts as safe havens so again in a straight fight the yen Sorry, the sorry, New Zealand dollar. I said the end should want to strengthen sorry, the New Zealand dollars who want to weaken against the US dollar to US dollar is Consider the safe haven currency as well. And again, we do have a bit of a demand zone here from June 2020 But again for me, it's purely just a technical Stop hunt there would have been a lot of traders looking at getting long there now They've been stop hunted but for me not really a pair that I'm looking to get involved in technically This is a a supply zone as well I think the dollar is still a buy And even the New Zealand dollar is a buy for me, but just not against the the US dollar So if you are looking at the divergence of risk sentiment Then I would say probably the top end of this zone this supply zone 6550s would be a decent area to look for any kind of short trades as well as you've got some confluence Horizontal confluence within that area as well. So that's that'd be quite nice as Like I said, there's some confluence within that area Pound dollar pound dollar still looking to short this but prices just won't come back If it does come back to this area though, I think I will be looking at potential shorts again, just depending on the setup of my technical setup But if prices do pull back, you know a couple of hundred pips to do out the one to six area I think that's going to be very nice for a potential short the pound and going into some fundamental analysis on the pound UK assets suffer after Bank of England's gloomy prognosis on recession So the pound slides to lower since June 2020 on growth outlook and the footsie looks like Haven Looks like Haven is domestic focus stocks struggle And struggling UK assets looked set for more pain after the Bank of England Warned a recession in the most downbeat outlook of any major central bank So I've been saying this for probably about a month or so that you know, I switched my bias somewhere around You know, maybe mid mid-March end of March talking about potential stagflation And pound stagflation and I was saying in a straight fight that you know I think that the dollar was the one to buy anyway and you know proven to be You know on on the money But it's now just looking at how to get involved in this trade technically So for me, it's pullbacks, especially to that one to six area. I think is nice If not, I do think this 130 is going to be very very very nice for a potential short You know the pound the lagging behind although their central bank is hiking rates That is coming off Will may come to an end and have to come to an end simply because of the the economy, right? You don't want to hurt the economy more by hiking rates And hiking borrowing costs. So for me bias is to the short side Euro dollar so Euro dollar This week a lot of traders got caught going potentially long during the week on That Euro dollar I personally again I'm still short on that Euro dollar But I really want a better pullback into that zone into the 108 before looking at getting short At the moment is there really a reason to potentially buy I'm gonna ignore every any demand zones past, you know two years But for me, it's really looking for pullbacks before getting short still the Euro could have a reason to Start to increase in value slightly and the ECB holdsman suggests two to three rate hikes this year and rate hikes typically have the effect of Appreciating a currency so the hawks are out in force European central bank could raise rates Two to three times in a small in small increments this year to tackle inflation according to governing council member Robert Holtzman and So talk taking at least two or three steps would be appropriate Holtzman said in an interview with Salzburg Correct and I think I say pronounce it newspaper the The moves can be 25 basis points each but raising rates above zero next year would be a strong signal to the public Even if it would be a fair part of the way to go before achieving rates that are neutral for the economy so there's some governing council members the hawk is hawks and the doves in it looks like it's more Looks like there are more on the hawk side as far as there's more The governing council members that are hawk is then then dovish so going back to You know the buying of the euro we could see that happened, but also as well on top of that The the markets the FX markets Potentially seeing parity come into play as well You know the Russia Ukraine tensions are not great for the economy And if data comes out as being poor or getting worse for the euro as much as the central bank want to high crates You know whether they can or is going to be another problem because they're trying to stop the decline I guess in the euro and parity would be somewhere around here So there's actually still enough and maybe 500 pips potentially of downside to go especially against the dollar the dollar being you know the stronger matter to and And so yeah There's there's that you know risk headwind so Again all eyes on the economic data really when it comes to the euro any pullbacks for me are shorting opportunities unless the euro either You know has really positive data really outstanding positive data And also as well whether the Russia Ukraine conflict comes to an end and that there definitely be a sentiment driver Looking towards the euro dollar. Sorry at the Aussie dollar Australia dollar US dollar again not really a pair that I'm interested in but like the New Zealand dollar US dollar pair the US dollar should strengthen over the The commodity currency is a safe haven play you do actually have demand here as well There's a demand zone there from a supply zone perspective Most clear evidence of evidence of supply is going to be that zone there I hesitate to draw a supply right here because It's not really how I Draw supply though You could make an argument for it But I'll keep it there matter of fact But if I am if I was looking to take any trades here It would have to be within that wide area of supply It would have to be with some confluence which is going to be that level of resistance So any pullbacks to this zone here Will be the first area and then the second area would be really up top there You can probably see that that area has also been traded as support and resistance Right within that zone Yes, your resistance resistance areas there support there So decent those are the two areas if I was looking to get short But um, yeah, I think that's pretty much it But the again, I think the poverty resistance at the moment is probably to the dollar Downside US dollar downside, but I do think if you know China start to grow again I think this is gonna be a very good Australian dollar is a buy Against other currencies just not against for me the the US dollar Ozzy yen Ozzy yen Last week we did come down to this demand zone Prices did break slightly through but it created a new demand zone here so I'm gonna basically draw that from there and And That so any pullbacks It's probably to be making high highs high lows I think any pullbacks into this just this the bottom end of that Demand zone is definitely gonna be an area to look for any kind of long trades If you're looking to buy Australian dollar, which I am more biased towards buying the Australian dollar than selling the Australian dollar against the Against the yen and I think that's gonna be the first area to look for Sell trades if you're looking at Shorting the Australian dollar against the Japanese yen At some point. So yeah, we've got definitely a bit of an auction being established potentially with between that 95 or 96 round number to the 90 And a half area. So let's see what happens there and finally gold gold Coming down to this demand zone Reacting from that Gold for me is still a buy Do like gold is a buy still and Yeah, just to kind of back that up. There was a video and Barrick CEO says gold closer to two thousand by the year and there are obviously reasons for that high inflation lots of you know risk of uncertainty and So gold closer to two thousand. So you could see, you know, some outside potential Around here is where two thousand is so this is a decent buy for gold If things start to get worse for you know, the economy's locked down, etc Then gold as a safe haven play is gonna be very nice. I think but gold was pretty much due a bit of a pullback anyways But yeah, I think gold is a buy if you are looking to sell gold in short gold Then there are areas right here Supply Supply and then that area Just draw that from here to here Actually, in fact, you can draw it all the way up to be fair, but I'll just draw it from there to there Those are the three areas that you really want to look for to short gold in the in the short term So then just go down into either a lower time frame could be a two hour the one hour and Look for any kind of short trades if you're looking at, you know shorting gold any long trades probably somewhere around that one The 1860 1850 areas, I think that's gonna be quite nice 1854. It's gonna be nice for a potential buy Anyways, that's it for this week and hope you enjoyed it Hope you have a great trading week and guys take care until the next video