 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Morning Markets Pickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good morning, everybody. Happy Friday. Thanks for tuning in. We've got about 24 minutes to go until the opening bell. You wake up, you open your eyes on Friday morning. You smell the coffee in the air and you say, man, we've got another banking crisis potentially. Not exactly the crisis, but you wake up, man, Deutsche Bank, down double digits and what's going on, folks, the cost of ensuring their debt, it's going up. That would mean the probability that that debt goes BK has increased overnight. It doesn't stop, man, when you talk about, and it shouldn't be surprising, folks, okay? That's a chart of Deutsche Bank. You were just trading at $10 and changed two days ago. You got down to 850. That's a 20% hit from where we were on Wednesday. You're talking about a 10% hit potentially from where we were just yesterday. Many others trading lower as well. You even jump over to UBS. For instance, that was down. You're going to open down another 60 cents. 60 cents, folks, is 3% plus percent for UBS. You jump around, we'll start it off with the headline. Deutsche Bank shares plunge in renewed bout of stress. The way Wall Street Journal has it, their title, they just jumped the headline there, but same deal. Deutsche Bank, as it should be, revives jitters is the way they put it, and this is the way CNBC puts it, the cost of ensuring against its default goes up. As simple as that, man, the cost of ensuring against the default of Deutsche Bank, Germans lender, yeah, it puts it lightly, right? To put it lightly to say the least. So that's what we're dealing with this morning. Let's jump around to our banks as we kick things off. They're all related, folks. JP Morgan trades from 127 to 124. We were just trading at 131 as of Wednesday, okay? Any time you're getting this much volatility in both directions in the market, my perception is that the market really has no idea what's going on, and that's why you get so much volatility. That's why we've been getting so much volatility for the last year or two, because it's been anybody's guess where we're going to be three or six months from where we are. Normally, it's a lot easier in a model-out analysis when you're talking about growth, growth rates, expectation, et cetera, not the case, when there's just so much volatility about where we go. The last Fed meeting that we just had this week, right? Very, very volatile in terms of the variance of what people expected. Some people were talking about a cut. Some people were talking about a pause. Consensus was a 25 basis point hike, and there were still people out there saying 50 basis points, which was where they were two weeks ago. God knows where we're going to be in six weeks, man, right? You just saw how things can change in two weeks. We haven't even gotten to notes and bonds, man, let alone the dollar yields. Absolutely remarkable. We jump over to Bitcoin, $28,150 right now. You jump to crude, backing off from the highs yesterday, $7167. We're trading at $6825. We jump over to the gold contract, above $2,000 again. Gold pushing the highs yesterday, $2,003. We jump over to notes and bonds, and yeah, I've been doing the Wednesday to Friday comparison. How about the 10-year? Just charged up over three full points, folks. Three full points from where we were on Wednesday with yields dropping, a flight to safety. Yeah. Pay attention to what's going on, man, and I know you are, but boy, you talk about a move. Man, Bud Rolfs, okay, these channels, folks, check out the channel the 10-year's in. You break out of that channel at the beginning of the year. You come back. You test that channel line and come boom. We break out of there. When you put it on a daily, yeah, we got under that channel line, so not an exact science, but boy, when you broke out of there, I remember that day, March 9th, you talk about a decisive break followed by March 10th, followed by March 13th, right? Followed by March 15th. They just keep going, man, every single day. We just traded from March 2nd, folks, 1, 10, 12, and what did we get up to? 1, 17, 01, almost seven full points, and you're really talking about a period of about two weeks, so things are changing right now. We'll see where we go, man, it's going to be so interesting when we get some of the data points of inflation because what happens if we get data like we got for January, right, or even February? What happens if the numbers keep pushing? What happens if the banking crisis doesn't put a squash on the inflation? Nobody knows what's going to happen, okay? But you better believe that there is a distinct probability that this banking crisis, while harsh on the financial sector, well, it's going to tighten up things in terms of credit, right? It's going to tighten up capital requirements. My dad was talking to me last weekend saying they already had instances where people were going to the bank to get money. One example he gave, and I'm just ballparking numbers in my memory. They might not be exact, but somebody was going to go to the bank. They were able to get a $950,000 loan. Well, guess what? Bank called them. They said things have changed. We can now provide you $850,000 because we need a little bit better capital requirements for the loans that we're pushing out to give ourselves more of a cushion if things get a little dicey. That's going to matter in the economy. But what happened to the whole deal about services sector, right? All of that stuff, I mean, real estate was already under pressure with yields where they are. So you talk about loans, taking loans out where they are. We've actually seen a dip in mortgage rates. So this is actually going to help that market, right? This is actually going to help real estate prices to some degree because interest rates have come down. What happens if all of this doesn't squash the services sector, which is where inflation has been raging? What does the Fed do then? They hike, folks. They hike. And we're talking about a Fed that two years out isn't quite sure where they're going to be, let alone how high they're going to have to be. So you wake up on Friday morning, the S&P is well off the lows. I say well off, not really, right? You're 15 points off the lows, but that was quite a trade lower from about 4 a.m. until where we were at about 6 a.m. With a quick drop off, you're right back to the lows of yesterday in this market. And boy, you want to talk about a pop yesterday, right? I've been saying it on the show, folks. I sent it out to my subscribers. My perception, OK, but there are 6 1 8s everywhere in this market, man. I sent a note out to subscribers yesterday and saying, and it doesn't always happen, folks. You can be magnificently wrong occasionally, OK? But man, these Fibonacci numbers doesn't mean they're right, but at least you can have a trading plan. You set up a risk reward, and the moves we're getting, if you keep your stops in place to some degree, you're getting 80 point to 90 point to 100 point moves, folks. You could trade it both ways. Yesterday in the open, you traded up 50 points before you traded down 100 points almost, 80 points, whatever it is, right? But what I was talking about early in the day, even when the market was above 4,000 somewhere in here, you're sitting at the 3 a.2, say, I could see it going up to the 6 1 8, maybe the 4,032 area. And folks, the way we're moving right now, it's not an exact science, all right? Just even yesterday, right? You got below that level, but you have to realize, right? It gets down to the lows of yesterday. Doesn't mean we're not gonna stay there. But yeah, in the short term, you might get a pop there. Well, what'd we do? We traded dramatically low it from 39.70 ish was the low that we got on Wednesday. You spike below that to a low yesterday afternoon of about 39.48. You rise up to a price point of 39.94 by 4.30. And it didn't take long, man. In the three o'clock timeframe, you got a pop from 39.50 to 39.93. That was 43 points to the upside. These are 15-minute bars. And just like that, 15 minutes later, you were gone. It was back down there. Yeah, so what do you do? You trade from 40.40 down to a low of 39.50. So 90 points down, 40 points up, 40 points down, 50 points up almost, and 60 points down. Those types of moves normally folks would correlate to a VIX even above 24, okay? Even above 24, yeah. It's gonna be a wild day in the markets, I imagine. We got another banking crisis going on, man. We got banks trading lower in dramatic fashion. You got Deutsche Bank trading down double digits. We got a lot to talk about folks, 15 minutes until the opening bell of the VIX trading at 24.08, S&P's off by 25. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. 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TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We're getting the S&P off 29 points right now. We're getting the VIX trading at 24.07. We jumped around to what else we had going on. Gotta check out Charles Schwab, man. Boy, you talk about it, right? So, now, for disclosure, folks, Schwab hosts TD Ameritrade, which owns Thinkorswim, and TD Ameritrade Thinkorswim sponsors. But be careful with Schwab out here, man. Let's check it out this morning because they're saying they're fine but everybody's saying they're fine. One of the things, and that's nice to see, I guess, down only 30 cents, right? Compared to what else is going on there, just basically trading low with the banks. But this one's from the journal last night, I believe. Yeah, last night I was reading this. It was probably lower, yeah, this is probably where it was at the lows. Now, this is what they're saying, okay? There would be a sufficient amount of liquidity right there to cover if 100% of our bank's deposits ran off without having to sell a single security. That is Walt Bettinger, that's Schwab's co-chairman and CEO. Instead, okay, the company could engage in a number of strategies to plug any funding shortfall. Well, there'll be a funding shortfall right away, okay? Including collecting interest paid on bonds it owns, borrowing from the Federal Home Loan Bank, which is something many banks are doing. That's one of the things put in place right now to prevent the contagion and issuing CDs. Now, they're saying all this, man. They talk about the available shares for short in here, but this is the one I wanted to get to, okay? This is the unrealized bond losses for banks as a share of tangible common equity. So what this means is, and let's go back because they have the numbers up here, I believe, or maybe they're below the chart. Basically, Schwab has so many losses on their balance sheet that the equity that they have is dwarfed by the losses. So in theory, they're actually in solvent, okay? Same exact thing that Silicon Valley Bank was facing, right? That that was what some of what the short traders were putting out prior to the revelation of what happened. I'm trying to find the number, come on. I'll find it after the break if we had to. Here we go, here's the numbers. Okay, in Schwab's case, the firm had, I'm gonna blow this up to make the text even a little bit bigger here for everybody, okay? So you can follow along. In Schwab's case, the firm had more than $11 billion in unrealized losses on its whole to maturity bond portfolio at the end of last year, exceeding the tangible common equity of just over six billion. So they have equity of six billion. They have unrealized losses of 11 billion that they don't have to mark to market because they're gonna hold them to maturity, okay? Most of those holdings were government-backed mortgage bonds, which are generally considered safe. The company also owns treasuries, asset-backed securities, corporate debt, and certificates of deposit according to their regulatory filings. Now, very simple that you have $11 billion in losses. You have $6 billion in equity. You don't have to realize those losses though, so they don't show up in the balance sheet in order to balance assets and liabilities. So what that does is that gives you unrealized bond losses that are about 190% of your common equity, okay? To put into context some of the other banks, truest US Bank Corp, Bank of America that's got a boatload, okay? But guess what? Their common equity is gonna be higher. Bank of America gets stress tested. I don't imagine they're allowing those stress tested banks to get above 100% because they're in lies. They actually got no money if you had to do it on that day. Now, they talk about the CEOs in there buying shares himself, bending your 50,000 shares last week. They talk a lot in this article, but that's something you wanna keep on your radar, folks. So I just wanted to point it out because any time any of these banks bend, in theory, you face a run on that bank. They got losses that dwarf their common equity and it's just not a greater value. It's almost double in terms of common equity of $6 billion, excuse me, and losses of about 11. Now they talk about a couple of things here. In terms of Schwab had 366 billion in deposits at the end of last year, that's down 17%. So they're facing deposit woes, but what they also talk about in here is that most of Schwab's deposits are gathered by its brokerage arm where the firm sweeps investors' cash into its banking unit. Schwab has to put that deposit money somewhere and its lending arm is relatively small. The firm puts more than 80% of its deposits to work by investing in various liquid debt securities, which is probably what we're talking about. But Schwab occupies an unusual corner of Wall Street, long known primarily as a low-cost broker to individual investors. The company has expanded its services by adding millions of clients. At the end of last year, it's the 10th largest bank in the US. Think we're learning a lot here, folks, in terms of the 10th largest bank in the US technically has more debt and losses on their balance sheet that are unrealized than they have in common equity. Where were the people that have the fundamental understanding of this stuff, right? And we all got an education and that's why experience is so important. Folks, you're seeing it play out, right? Is there anything like the last four years we've seen in this market in terms of going through COVID? We've all got a lesson in inflation, interest rates, yields, risk, stocks going much further than you ever imagined they could have happened. Black swan events, multiple black swan events, you could argue as we're in another banking crisis that came out of the blue. But you got some of the biggest banks in the country with more unrealized losses on their balance sheet than they have common equity. Man, that would have been an easy one to get all over the press. I'm not sure you would have got the publicity saying the banking sector is in crisis, but you would have gotten some play after the fact and it all hindsight's 20-20, right? This one's an easy one, but it's still playing out. So when you see stuff like that, they're not the only one and they are a much different case versus Silicon Valley Bank because Silicon Valley Bank had people with $500 million on there, right? Parking everything like Roku. I bring them up all the time, man. But what the heck was Roku doing? Parking $500 million with a bank that had more unrealized losses on their balance sheet than they had common equity. So take it for what it's worth, we go from there. Let's jump around to some of the banks as we progress. JP Morgan down about a buck. Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks. Apple shares this morning, pretty calm. Down about 50 pennies, 158.49. We jump over to Tesla. Not exactly a fang stock, but nonetheless Tesla shares. What's that? Down about a buck 50 to 190.54. Microsoft trained a little bit lower. We get the Nasdaq 100 off about 54 points right now. What else? We jump over to Google shares. Down a bit, we jump over to Metta. Now this is its own case, man, because of everything going on with TikTok. Yeah, and don't chase, folks. You're seeing a lot of stocks that are accelerating and man, it's tempting to chase, right? Snapchat goes from 10.60 to 11.40. And I'm in this. I'm just preaching what I feel, right? It's very tempting to chase. We've got a couple of quick reminders. In this market, you don't have to chase. We're getting moves in both directions. Don't be afraid to take in profits because you're gonna be able to get back in again, no matter what side you're on, okay? I mean, just take, for example, the ES, okay? Quite the runoff on Wednesday. You could have sold here because you gotta move to about 100 points in the S&P, right? If you didn't sell there, you probably got another chance to go short. I'm giving you the short side because that's where I am right now. In this market, it's where I'm more comfortable. And I think the moves you're getting, at least right now, man, with so much volatility, you gotta keep your stops in place because even if you're bearish, right? You're getting moves from 3070 to 4040. You're getting 70-point counter-trend bounces in the span of 48 hours. Did you catch that, folks? That's almost a 2% pop that is counter-trend within the span of a day or two. Yeah, so you don't wanna take those 70 points if you don't have to, okay? If you have multiple positions on or where it is. But guess what? If you didn't sell, you could have gotten in here. If you didn't sell here, you could have gotten out at the end of yesterday when you got back down to that level. Completely reasonable, you could face a pop. If you didn't do that, what did you do? You got back up to almost 4,000. We're 3940 this morning and we get an opening bell in three minutes. So keep your stops in place, man, because you can take some losses, but the runs that are happening in this market, we're gonna talk about a little bit more when we get back, folks. We got a lot to talk about. Opening bell, coming up, stay tuned. Building wealth trading in the stock market seems impossible to most people. They think it's too volatile and risky. Most people aren't going to take the time to educate themselves on how to do it right, but you're not most people, are you? At TFNN, you'll get the guidance you need to refine your strategies and techniques to invest like a pro, because you'll be a pro. All TFNN subscriptions, books, software, and courses are available at tfnn.com. And I'm even going to tell you how to get them for less. Use TFNN's Tiger Dollars and you'll get up to a 20% bonus on your purchase. And once you apply them to your account, Tiger Dollars are automatically used for all future or recurring charges. 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TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 a.m. to 4.00 p.m. Eastern for free. Each host is an experienced trader and gives their take on the market while taking calls and questions live from around the world. From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN. Educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We'll get to that article in a moment, but we kick things off with the S&P, not that bad considering where we were overnight, right? You check out the S&P right now. We're down 15 points, 39.62. We're gonna see if the market can save itself a bit right now. We were up to almost 4,000 overnight, but what's been the trend, man? The trend has been higher prices sell off. Higher prices sell off. Higher prices sell off. We're gonna get higher prices in a sell off, man. Who's going into Friday? You want action on Friday when we got potential banking crisis going on yet again? Who knows? Maybe we do have a banking crisis going on and we get a bailout. Maybe we're all watching Sunday night for what's going on for Deutsche Bank. Exaggerating a bit, but you gotta keep in mind. And that's not what I'm anticipating right now, okay? And let's jump over to Deutsche Bank as I say that. Yeah, they're saving themselves a bit. They're down 6% right now, okay? People are protecting themselves, man. They should be buying insurance. No matter what, you should be buying insurance in this market because things are developing so quickly. If you are uncomfortable losing everything, like some of those credit swiss holders did, then buy some insurance, man. Maybe you overpay a bit. But the risks might be a little bit greater than you even realize. I mean, one of the things that I try and look at folks when I'm trading is that you gotta realize you don't know everything, okay? You gotta realize it. You gotta realize there's people in this business that are gonna know more than you. I mean, if you're not a Fortune 500 bank CEO right now, right? If you're not in the Treasury, they have access to data and they have access to people that understand things that are the CEOs of some of those banks. Just some of that stuff, right? To a certain degree, and then it goes even further down the line from there. Well, what I understand is, I don't understand things completely, but what I do understand is that last week, you had the Swiss government coming in and backstopping credit swiss to the tune of $50 billion backstop on Thursday. And meanwhile, they knew it was over and all they were doing was buying themselves three days to make sure that they could facilitate either a merger, a purchase, whatever it is. They got it done over the weekend as we know now. But boy, keep it in mind, because you're not hearing everything all the time, right? They knew it. They already knew the credit Swiss was done Thursday. Out of business, couldn't continue as a bank. The outflows were too much. The writing was on the wall. They came out and told us, don't worry, they're fine. We're gonna give them $50 billion. So always remember that right now as everything's going on in this market, folks. Inflation has not gone away. Period. There is nothing about inflation that has changed since Chairman Powell made his remarks, what? 15, 16 days ago. 17 days ago, Tuesday, two weeks ago. Nothing's changed for inflation. Yes, this could put a hurting on inflation. I don't think this is gonna squash inflation, folks, okay? If you're watching the market, if you're highly in tune with everything that's going on, yes, this has an obvious impact, okay? But for the average American that has got a 7% raise in the same job over the last year, that has gotten a 14% raise, if they change jobs in the last year, okay? That doesn't exactly change the game overnight. And so to just imagine that this is somehow gonna squash inflation, I don't see that happening. So it doesn't mean the market's going to zero today, but boy, there is gonna be a lot of pressure on this market for the next year or two when you think about getting over inflation because we're gonna have some extreme volatility because nobody really knows what's gonna happen. And the job just got a lot more difficult for Chairman Powell. So with that in mind, we'll jump over. You got a battle, man. Who do we got here? We got two Chairman Powell's up here from Bloomberg, the headline, Voker slated inflation, Bernanke saved the banks can Powell do both? He's going against himself here, right? Because by trying to save inflation, he's putting a hurting on the banks and he's putting a hurting on the banks that have made massive errors in their own right. Think I saw something like Silicon Valley Bank was thinking rates may go up 75 basis points or something like that last year and they went up 4.75 basis points or something like that and they didn't model for what if they're wrong. Just staggering, staggering. And actually that was one of the coolest parts I think Chairman Powell and how he just slammed the management and how just horrible they were at Silicon Valley Bank. Where was everybody ahead of time though, right? Where was everybody ahead of time? You're telling me that he didn't know? They knew, now we're finding out they knew. So if it was so horrible and the bank was mismanaging things so horribly and they were 250 plus billion dollars and they were gonna be systematic, why wasn't Chairman Powell stress testing them? They could have, remember that exemption that good old Barney Frank? No, yeah, Barney Frank put into, where did I just go with that one? To scale back Dodd-Frank? Yeah, Barney Frank. For some reason I was thinking I was mispronouncing it. It accepted banks under 250 billion dollars but it still gave the Federal Reserve the ability to deem any bank systematic even under that threshold. So he came out with the super strong words in terms of what was management doing because that is the take folks. But what was the Fed doing, right? And so they always know more. They knew more going into this. That's what I'm trying to get to you, right? The Swiss banking system, they knew credit Swiss was about to collapse. Who knows what we know going into another weekend, man? Who knows, right? Deutsche Bank down 6% about the cost of ensuring their defaults going up. Pay attention to that, man, it's a big market. And yeah, people might be flocking to insurers, just protect themselves as they should as they should have prior to this. JP Morgan down 1.1%, gotta keep an eye on the banks, man. Bank of America off three quarters. First Republic. Yeah, who was putting money in First Republic, man? This thing is done, okay? Use your brain and imagine who is putting money in this bank right now, man. Let alone who is not taking money out of this bank. I think it's gotta go, somebody's gotta deal with it. And the stock continues to reflect that, man. You were at 20 bucks a few days ago on Tuesday. You were at $16 on Wednesday. You were at $14 on Thursday. You're at $12 today, and you're almost pushing the lows of Monday of 11.52 for First Republic. We jump over to PacWest. Oof, it's not stopping, man. Down 2.5% from $12 on Tuesday to 11.50 on Wednesday to 10.50 on Thursday to $9 today. Pay attention to these, man. Pay attention. See the other ones, eye on. Yeah, they catch a little bit of a lift. They're actually up by 1.2%. Pretty remarkable. All right, what else do we have pulled up here? Let's jump around to some of the articles. We gotta talk about a little bit of square. This one's gonna be interesting to see how it plays out. So Jack Dorsey's blocked vows to fight back after Hindenburg says it's short the stock. He lapses in the cash app compliance processes. Well, yeah, they call it inaccurate and misleading. Now Jack Dorsey himself just lost half a billion dollars. Don't worry, he's still worth four plus billion dollars. So he'll be just fine. But of course they're gonna come at it. It's gonna be quite a battle. And the problem here is that not that they're in trouble anyway, right? But the banking sector's in trouble right now anyway. So you don't wanna be in trouble within the banking sector that's in trouble. And yesterday you're at 74, you drop off to 56. You almost push those those today. You're up to almost 66 at one point, man. So be careful. Now you jump over to SoFi. This thing got quite a pop up to $6. And this is one of those instances about chasing folks, right? You go from 518, you're up to 555. The news comes out early Wednesday. They're guaranteeing with the option to guarantee something like $2 million at deposits in their FDIC insurance. And then you back off to 560. Don't chase, okay? There's gonna be opportunities in this market. You jump over to 570. There it is. So that might be a decent stock. It might be. Anything in the banking sector's potential right now when you think about it, okay? Anything, be careful in the banking sector. Don't chase, don't chase. There's no need to because the moves we're getting. And yeah, we'll talk a little bit of art, man, because it wasn't just talking about block. How about Coinbase? A double whammy, art down another percent today. Stay tuned folks, we'll be right back. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks, and commodities, subscribe to the opening call newsletter at tfnn.com. The opening call newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as The Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. 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Distributor, Four Side Fund Services, LLC. This program is brought to you by Vista Gold, traded on the NYSE American and TSX under the symbol VGZ. Welcome back folks. A little bit of a sell-off going on here. We're up to $39.65. Boom, you lose 20 points. We're basically chopping into the lows right now with the ES futures, S&P futures off 31 points right now, trading at $39.47. Yeah, it's been a little bit of a sell-off, man. NASDAQ 100 off about a hundred points. Check that out. We're actually below the lows that we're at this morning in the NASDAQ 100. Dow off $262. Right now you got the Russell off by $22. Bitcoin back under $28,000. Crew contract under $68.6792. Gold hanging above $2,000. Top $5 on the session of 2001. No 10 bonds right now. And let's see, where are we with yields right now? You are at 3.31%, 3.31, just like that on the 10 year. Remarkable, the move, just that quick. And we got the 30er up a full point and eight ticks. Okay, jumping back. So let's check out these stocks first before. We're gonna jump over to Ark for a second and it's like, man, how is she making all the money she's making just to be cherry picking stocks that are getting crushed? Ark off 1.7% today, 1.75. Now Coinbase trades from 85 to 60. What is that, 25 bucks? Jeez, what is going on? 25 divided by 85. You're talking about a 29.4% hit from the highs of Wednesday to the lows of Thursday. And we just talked about square as well. Now Coinbase I think is one of her largest square is in there. We're gonna find out in a moment when I go over there, but you're talking about square going from 76 to 56. So that's a 20 point hit. So square goes down 26%. Coinbase goes down 29%. I've been talking about, man, if you want action in the crypto market, okay, I just think there's better areas than Coinbase. And the returns have proved it in terms of where Bitcoin has been, where Bitcoin has been in the past versus where it is now correlated Coinbase, man, just be careful, this equity. To back this up, folks. Yeah, to put it lightly, nonetheless. Now let's jump over to ARK. ARK, number one holding Tesla. You got Zoom, Roku, Coinbase, square. It's the number four and number eight holding. And look it. So she's got over 5% of Coinbase and she's got over a full percentage of square. Square's a $40 billion company. So that position is what? 407 million, here's the market positions. And a coin is 488. The two of them combined for almost $900 million position. And she's getting clobbered left and right, man. And how does, anyway, it's be careful in this one, man. And you got Tesla at the top spot there, right? What happens if Tesla didn't have the rebound it had? Where would ARK be? Tesla negative 1.3% right now. What are some of the other stocks that she's got up there? Roku, Roku's an interesting one, man. In terms of advertising is gonna be a hit in a big, big factor going forward for the next couple of years as the economy potentially faces a slowdown, advertising one of the big areas that they could see some growth in when they eventually get things going and the economy potentially picks up. One of the things that is always out there is that you could see an acquisition for Roku. You jump over to the Analyze tab, Fundamentals, you take a look, $8.7 billion company. I mean, for context here folks, all Apple has to do is move 50 cents to compensate $8 billion. 16 billion shares outstanding today, they just lost $8 billion on the market cap since the open. So some of these equities, you know, you're seeing Apple, they're gonna be spending a billion dollars a year on movies just to go into the cinemas, right? Talked about that yesterday. So there is the possibility Roku eventually would be a company that some of these go after. Netflix was talked about going after them. Originally, when they were in a big problem, you jump over to Netflix shares this morning, you're up by 1.5%, right? Check it out. Let's put Netflix back on a daily. Quite a couple of nice pops there for Netflix. We see how Disney's doing. Disney down 1.6%, so that's an individual story over there for Netflix. We jumped to Water Brothers Discovery off about 3.6%. Paramount, some of the streamers off 3.1%. Jump over to Zoom shares off 1.2% right now. What are some of the other Cathie Woodholds? And let's check them out. How much money can she lose in one day? Exact Sciences, XS. What's Doc's been doing all right this year, right? Jumps from 50 to 64 and hangs kind of right at that 65 price point. Teladoc, ooh, this thing's gotten hammered, man. Yeah. The future in medicine is telehealth, but I'm not sure Teladoc's gonna be the one to bring it to us, man. This thing, it's raised down to $28 almost a year ago, and we've just been chopping around those levels, kind of making new lows, right? 21 bucks at the beginning of the year. You make it up to 34, you give it all back, just like that. In this market, what's going on? It's giving it all back, 39, 39, challenging the lows of the pre-market in this market, man. Woof, it's gonna be an interesting Friday, folks. We're 17 minutes and 35 seconds into the trading day, and what did you do? You just traded down 25 points, and you are literally within a point of the lows right now. You jump over to the Dollar Index. Dollar Index up to 103.18 right now, showing up a bit. You check out the Dollar Index, and the daily catches a bit from about the 102 price point, and let's see how notes and bonds are trading right now. Yeah, pretty much where we were. You're up about 24 ticks right now, with the 10-year yield at about 3.31%. And boy, if you trade lower, all right, let's try and pick some levels here. I mean, 3,900, that's the next spot, man. You were down there overnight when you're talking about March 20th, my birthday. Nice round number, 3,900, why not? You touched that point in a couple occasions. You did it on March 20th, you did it on March 16th. Let's see how A to B, C to D moves are moving here. I mean, we're getting 100-point moves almost, folks. That's like the range in this market. And yeah, that brings you down to 3,900, there you go. So you trade from 40.73 down to 39.70, we'll call it. You trade from 40.40, you got down 90 points on that one. 39.48, almost, right, 90 points. So you go 100 points, you go 90 points, you reach a high overnight of 39.98, you do 90 to 100 points, you're approaching 3,900, right where we were to kick off the read. I mean, come on, sometimes it's too easy, right where we were to kick off the week, man, right? Yeah, and folks, never regret taking a profit. All right, you're gonna get moves in this market, man. Make sure you take some profits because as I just said, right, look at if you were short this market, the moves that you've gotten in the other direction, even though we just traded from 4,073, we are down about 150 points, we're breaking through the lows right now, that's just from Wednesday. We are down 150 points, but within that, we had one move that was, what is that low? 39.66, 40, 30, 76 points to the upside on one occasion, and then you gotta move 50 points up on the other occasion. So you gotta got 70 points up, 50 points up, and you still ended down almost 150 points, just staggering moves, man. Let's see how the VIX is trading on this because really the VIX should be above where it is, I believe. And if you're not familiar with it, I just wanted to make sure I was pulling it up. The rule of 16 on the VIX, okay? The rule of 16 on the VIX is that if the VIX is at 16, that means that the SPX is estimated to see average daily moves of up or down 1% one out of three times. Let me get this right, yes, yes. That's exactly right, okay. And look at it, look at what I did, look at it. You gotta love TD Ameritrade folks, I know I'm biased, but I pull them off, okay? And the top two links in there, first one's Charles Schwab, I'm not sure that one's actually wording it correctly, the second one from TD Ameritrade, we're gonna talk about the rule of 16 with the VIX when we come back folks, stay tuned. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours. And now they are expanding their reach with the Tiger's Den, available to all tigers and tigers for just $1 for the year. There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders. In the Tiger's Den, you can look over the shoulders of Tom O'Brien and the other TFNN hosts while they analyze charts during their live Tiger TV programs and join an interactive trading community with hundreds of members exchanging ideas, interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day, even at night and on the weekends. The Tiger's Den at Discord is accessible on mobile or tablets as well. So it's always at your reach. To sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders, just visit the front page of TFNN.com. You might think that if you want to be successful at trading in the stock market, you're going to need a crystal ball. After all, it's impossible to predict the future, right? Like any endeavor in life, before you decide it's impossible, get some advice from the experts. You might find that it's not so impossible after all. For daily market overviews that give you direction on the key indices, selective stocks and commodities, subscribe to the Opening Call Newsletter at TFNN.com. The Opening Call Newsletter is written by Basil Chapman, creator of the trading methodology known as the Chapman Wave. The Chapman Wave up-down sequence gives you an edge in identifying price turns, finding the peaks and valleys in stock prices. Get the Opening Call Newsletter by Basil Chapman in your inbox every day. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. TFNN.com, educating investors. Everything in the universe is governed by the Fibonacci sequence. This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market. To stay on top of stock patterns you can take advantage of, sign up for the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter at TFNN.com. When you subscribe, you'll get a weekly report from Veteran Day Trader Larry Pezzavento on stocks you need to pay attention to, and you can trust Larry's analysis. After all, he's got 45 years' experience as a day trader. Larry will also provide daily charts, videos, and data on the key markets that he's tracking. Expect notifications from Larry on market movement you need to act on at any time. First-time subscribers also get a 30-day money-back guarantee. If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up. Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24-7 newsletter today. TFNN.com, educating investors. This segment is brought to you by Think or Swim. For more information, just click the Think or Swim banner on the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We jump back to the chart. We got the S&P. It's a little bit of a bounce off that $39.40 price point. We're up to $39.54. And yeah, what my dad was saying to me in the tiger stand too that I didn't even talk about is that she's just doubling down, man, at least on the two of these where she bought, now these are trades, okay? I was showing you before her holdings and this is just in the ARC Innovation ETF that gets the most public press ARKK. These are the actual trades and you can see that yesterday she sold some Tesla, sold some EXAS and she was buying Square and Coinbase. 275,000 shares of Square, 230,000 of Coinbase, throwing some Teladoc in there, 150,000 of those. I mean, I guess if you just dollar cost average down to zero, you can't lose money when it pops to 10 cents, but boy, it's quite a scenario. And who knows what's happening with Square, okay? Who knows in terms of if you think you know more than that, then more credit to you. Why didn't you have the position ahead of time? Because it's gonna be a battle, I'm sure. Hindenburg's out there, whatever it is, but yeah, you better believe that there's some volatility, man, you jump over to Square off 2.8% right now, you jump over to Coinbase, off another 1.1% right now, you jump over to ARK off about 3.25% right now. And the rule of 16, so the rule of 16 is basically if the VIX is trading at 16, then one third of the time, the market expects the S&P to trade up or down by more than 1%, okay? When the VIX is at 32, it's 2%. Now with it sitting at about 24, that means that the market is saying that the S&P should move 1.5% every one out of three days. Folks, it's moving a lot more than 1.5% and it's moving that frequency a lot more than one out of three days right now. So stay nimble, stay quick. I appreciate it, folks, and stay tuned. We're gonna have a replay. Steve Rhodes is gonna have his program right now because I believe Basil's out, but yeah, we got some live programming folks coming up after that, stay tuned. We got the S&Ps down by 18 right now. Stay tuned, folks. I'll be right back for the 10 o'clock update.