 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Feng What is going on everybody welcome on into covering the spread that's right here on the fan duel podcast network and number fire Com as we're getting you said for the NFL draft from a betting perspective with Danny Kelly of the ringer My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always by Ed Feng of the powering calm Ed. It is draft season. I am psyched for that. How are you doing today? I'm doing great. I got out of jail this morning. It's been a kind of a hectic Got out of jail. This is this I feel like we should be talking to HR for this and not me So I two weeks ago we talked about kind of my COVID story went to Sloan came back Was sick and tested negative for for the coronavirus But then everyone I was in Boston everyone that I was with in Boston started testing positive And so, you know, it was you know, we talked about this two weeks ago Like I really didn't know what was in my body just given that, you know My test was negative and everyone else I was with tested positive. Yeah, so fast forward to last week You know, my wife is kind of sick and so she ended up testing positive So the probability that I managed to catch a common cold in Boston Whereas everyone else I've been around the you know during a two-week period Had a coronavirus thoughts of that seemed pretty small But when she ended up, you know testing positive last week So, you know, when you are when you have it, you know, you're good to kind of go back to work like Seven days after you start showing symptoms and then three days after your last symptom So, you know, she went back to work this past Monday. She's a doctor and you know, they obviously need her But and if I you know, I I most likely had it and had I had it I would have been able to be free to do whatever I want, you know But the rule is, you know, if you didn't have it and that's what the state of Michigan considers me as they They say I don't have it because my test was negative You need to be in your home for two weeks after your spouse first showed symptoms so that was The end of two weeks was this morning So that's the sense in which I got into jail. I've been, you know, basically since her test came positive We've been in and around our house. We've been in our house and it's kind of nice to get out It was a beautiful morning, took the boys out. So how is everyone feeling? Oh, yeah, sorry, I should preface everything. Yeah, family's fine We're all I mean, I haven't had an issue for like over two weeks now, right? Like sure, you know, like There was one pretty bad day the week I got back from Boston. Yeah, and ever since then I've pretty much been fine So Am I always doing fine? She's back at work. Has had a pretty good week and my boys are fine as well So it's all kind of crazy This thing is very very contagious. Yeah, I I definitely have firsthand experience with that. So be safe Just assume that everyone that you are near has it and keep yourself. Have it Yeah, what what's that? I always assume that you have it too. So you're not giving it to people You don't want to give it to anyone Which is, you know, while we're keeping our social distance. Yeah Yeah, you know, that's crazy. Well, I'm glad to hear that like your family is okay because like yeah, that's I mean I know that like The odds of like death are low for like anyone in like our age groups But like it still sucks to like be sick And so it's good to hear that like you're feeling well. Yeah, no no everyone's feeling well And it was actually interesting my wife when she got she's like, all right She had you know, she had gotten back she had gotten past the sick part. Yeah, you know, you develop a immunity after you've had it So She was happy that you know, our family's been exposed to it. We're all fine We have immunity to it now and that's gonna be an asset moving forward. So how did you like? Like you couldn't leave the house at all for the two week period at all Oh We didn't leave our property. We did we did like you can go to our backyard, but we I didn't leave my property for Seven days. So did you have like like groceries delivered? Like I'm like cuz like why I have not I we've been social distancing now for 20 days or whatever it is and like I have not left for hardly anything but like I am very low on my oatmeal and I'm gonna need to buy more oatmeal at some point I'd rather not go to the grocery store, but like not having that flexibility to go to the grocery store I feel like would be a pretty Significant mental like weight. Yes No, it's definitely tough The fortunate thing is I have a lot of good friends around here And so there was no shortage of people who offered to go buy stuff. Yeah for the family I picked my friend who is as anal about food as I am Good job Getting exactly what I wanted so we could so we could get through this little period And then in terms of just kind of like the house arrest, you know, like I Made up games like taking my laundry one piece at a time to the basement What they're trying to keep the body active. So yeah, it's been a crazy week, man. It was nice to get out this morning I'm not yeah, I'm not gonna lie about that. Well, I'm glad everyone is feeling well because like that's you know That's the number one concern Glad that that's out of the way and now hey, you can move about freely once again. That's Otherwise we're sheltering home, right exactly and like I'm not going anywhere I don't I didn't go anywhere that often to begin with like it's not a major deviation for me anyway, but Glad to hear that you have that additional like freedom to like go for a run or whatever because Right, that's tough, but I'm glad that everything worked out. Okay, or at least as okay as I could have for sure It yeah, it's it's been relatively good. So but it's been tough, too. Well, that is wild We're gonna talk about the NFL draft here in just a bit feels a bit trivial to talk NFL draft going all the stuff that's that's going down, but hey, it's a distraction. So, you know, yeah, I'm excited to talk NFL draft Man, it's fun. Absolutely. We're gonna have Danny Kelly on you can follow Danny on Twitter at Danny be Kelly He is a staff writer for the ringer We are discussing his NFL draft guide and some prop bets that he likes for this month's draft over at Fandals sportsbook and a lot of good stuff there with Danny He also has a full draft guide over at the ringer. It has a mock draft. It has Danny's big board It has team needs from Robert Mays So you can kind of see What needs teams may be addressing if you're like you can bet on who the Jets will take first or the Jets take first Etc and you can use those tools to help you bet and are you a big draft guy? Yeah, I mean I and I enjoy the NFL draft a lot. I think it's a very interesting I do I have done some predictions in the past based on wisdom of crowds essentially like accumulating mock drafts And in covering the future. I'll talk about a resource for for you guys to get that information as well Okay, perfect. I like the draft has been like it's always been one of my favorite days the entire I remember waking up the morning that Reggie Bush got drafted and I was like nervous because the Jets had kind of like a high-end pick and I was I was I was a Very dumb child. So I was like, oh my gosh. I want the Jets a trade-off game Reggie Bush It's like I played with Reggie Bush on the NCAA football video game all the time. It was you and Matt Liner Like the rest in peace to the NCAA video game, but like I so desperately wanted the trade-off that I was like nervous when I woke up So it's nice to like write about the draft from a betting perspective now because it's something I've been following for forever at this point So, yeah, I'm gonna talk to Danny Yeah, for sure. I'm definitely excited about talking to Danny But just remember Jim we probably all thought like that back then right? You know, it's the you know, don't put yourself down over Man, I had a lot now trying to take say Kwame Barkley with the number two pick Right, we'll have a different discussion Very different discussion. Yeah, thankfully. I've learned I had a lot of bad takes like I the other guy I was mad the Jets missed out on was Tava on Austin So we're learning as we go along here and evolving our thought process a couple other podcasts We've had recently here with the void in sports We talked with John Sheeran a fan dual sportsbook last week to cover the basics of betting on horse racing Fandal racing is a thing. I actually they had a free-to-play daily fantasy horse racing thing on Fandal today Which I did I have not looked to see if it went. Well, I have no idea if it went Well, it could have been terrible. I played daily fantasy for the challenge last night So, you know check out what John Sheeran said about horse racing and also Kevin Cole pro football focus on To outline the betting implications of NFL free agency two weeks ago as well to get those podcasts Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcasts So you get these right as they are posted especially in the time where things are a bit more Spratic I guess given that there is no sports going on So make sure you are subscribed to get these podcasts right as they are posted And if you like what you hear, please leave us a rating interview as well because those do help us out a ton Today's podcast is brought to you by Fandal racing speak of the devil Fandal is doing its part to continue to bring sports fans Excitement by offering uses the chance to bet on horse racing Use your existing Fandal DFS login credentials to gain access to tutorials to learn more about the sport Including understanding how the odds work the various types of bets you can make and most importantly how to win those bets Watch all the races live across over 300 tracks when things are operating normally And fill the void left in your sports fandom today for more details isn't racing dot fandal.com or download the fandal app today eligibility restrictions apply Let's bring on Danny Kelly now to break down the NFL draft once again Danny is on Twitter at Danny be Kelly and check out his draft guide over at the ringer Let's talk some NFL draft and pick Danny's brain to see where he thinks various players are going Covering the present Let's bring Danny Kelly into covering the spread to talk a little bit about the NFL draft Danny. Thank you first of all I know this is kind of a crazy time a year for you even outside of COVID-19. So how you doing today? I'm doing pretty well doing pretty well I'm just you know trying to make the most of the situation and stay busy and all that and so far Staying very very busy, you know, I went up to the draft. So I can imagine you did this last year, too You know, you did the the ringer draft guide. I feel like this year is probably extra complicated given everything that's going on What's it been like for you? You know trying to do, you know, this is like tax season I guess my best analogy for you like what's been like having your tax season and when everything is kind of jumbled up like this Oh man, it's well first of all, I kind of play catch up because I typically start sort of scouting and getting really into the draft like November You know because I'm covering the NFL too during the regular season. So just kind of playing catch up I thought I had a pretty good handle on it going into the senior bowl going in the combine But you know the last couple weeks have been a challenge just you know with staying home and and all the COVID related things it's just kind of slowed everything down for me, but Feeling good. I'm really really excited about the draft guide You know, it's about to go up to 85 players next week And so and we'll have about to a hundred players by the time the draft rolls around. So I'm feeling good about it. A lot of really really exciting fun players in this class. I cannot wait for the draft I think it's just gonna be it's it's hard to figure out whether I want the draft to happen or not because it's obviously like a very strange time and It almost feels inappropriate that it's happening or it does feel inappropriate that it's happening But the same time it's kind of a good Distraction for people that are you know, obviously going through a lot of stress right now. So maybe it maybe it is a good thing I don't know. I kind of land right in the middle there. I mean, I don't feel like it's a good thing I mean, they're not they're not actually gonna have like a real draft, right? Like they're gonna do Oh, and yeah, it's gonna be all over. I mean as far as I know It's like all video conference type stuff and work the phones and all that kind of thing A lot of people actually let teams don't even go to the draft to be honest I think a lot of teams, you know, stay at their headquarters and do everything from there I think it'll be a little different because you have to maintain social distancing still and everything but I'm sure that there is the technology to kind of get it all done. So it's gonna be a new challenge for teams And that could kind of maybe change things a little bit Yeah It's gonna be really interesting to see how things play out because obviously like there are a lot of things that like We don't talk about a lot, you know broadly about the draft, but things are changing because of COVID-19 There are gonna be fewer pro days and that impacts a lot of guys with injury concerns guys who maybe maybe didn't work out Due to resting in some instances from the combine So that changes a lot of things obviously Teagan's got his pro day in but is that going to increase the volatility and trying to predict the draft knowing that teams have less data to work with and you Maybe have like fewer people who are in the know just because there's there's a lot stuff going around Does that change stuff for you trying to predict the draft too? I think it does maybe not so much in the first like 10 or 15 picks or so You know those seem to be like, you know, the blue chip guys are more or less locked in You know just to kind of pens who which team takes them But when you start getting into the second half of the first round and into the second and third rounds I think then it it makes a ton of volatility because You know, you've got guys like for instance, Brian Edwards who didn't he didn't play the senior boy He was unable to work out at the combine You know, he suffered a broken foot I believe and so like a lot of things hinged a lot of his draft stock I think was a little bit contingent on him testing and showing to teams that he was fast enough things like that And now he could drop into potentially the fourth or fifth round Which I think is is going to be a steal for some team that grabbed grabbed in that late but that's just one example of a lot of players who like you said kind of had to skip the The pre-draft stuff the combine and we're hoping and banking on having a pro day to sort of you know Boost their stock going into the draft. So I think it hurts those players a little bit more than normal Just just based on like you said that teams just don't have much info Yeah, absolutely. So Danny really excited to ask you about some quarterbacks We have all just said that Joe borrows going number one, which seems like a lock But a lot of interesting things behind them your mock draft has dolphins taking Justin Herbert And then with to a take a little slipping down to the charges at the next pick Is that is that how you see things playing out or could there could there be trades or what's what's your take on the quarterback situation? I think so right now my that that that mock draft doesn't necessarily reflect what I think is gonna happen now I think my biggest And just full disclosure like I don't do trades on my mock draft So I kind of did it this way because I think that the chargers are gonna trade up to get to a so I think the dolphins will probably if that happens I think the dolphins end up with Herbert and the chargers end up with to us. So that was kind of how I did that I don't necessarily think to is gonna go and fall behind Herbert necessarily though I think it is in the realm of possibility But I think right now kind of if I had to make a bet about it I think either the chargers or the dolphins are gonna trade up to that number three spot with the lions and Take to a and I think that's kind of to me And I was looking at some of the odds and everything for the first three picks. I just think it's gonna be Borough young to like and that's the favorite right now. And I just feel like anything else is just like wildly Far less likely I guess you see the chargers being the team that will make that move to go up to number three I think that's kind of the right now the winds are sort of saying that though There's whispers of that There's a lot of rumors that they really really like to a lot and I heard down Jeremiah talking about this the other day Maybe a couple weeks ago how the dolphins don't necessarily have a huge huge Tilt our favorite in terms of Herbert or two I think maybe they're they'd be happy to get either of those guys And so maybe they're less likely to give up massive massive, you know, Jeff capital Even in a even a two or three spot move up. You're gonna have to give up probably a first-round pick. So Yeah, I just don't know if they're you know necessarily willing to take that risk with with to his injury history And obviously we heard yesterday. He came out and said he could play today, which is kind of insane to think about I mean, it's it's we live people were thinking he might have like a Like a red shirt season this whole year. And so maybe you know, and of course we can't confirm we can't confirm anything but Yeah, so I think That's just kind of why I'm leaning right now But I think the dolphins of the Chargers are the heavy heavy favorites to land to a and I'm leaning the Chargers on this one Hey, Dana, I wanted to also ask you one of two would never hurt his hip. Yeah, that changed things right now That's so hard. That's really really hard to to kind of guess I get think because I remember talking to My editor Ben Glickman who is a huge huge to a guy like halfway through the season before he got before to a got hurt And we were debating the burrow to a thing and I was just like I I was on the to a side I was like, I think two is the best quarterback in this draft. Yeah, and then he got hurt but also burrow finished off the season on an absolute tear and He'd I mean he didn't I wouldn't say he changed my mind But I think that was enough for me to be like, okay, he's the guy like I think he's the best quarterback in this class He has the highest ceiling he the things he did in clutch time Some of the throws he made his athletic ability just kind of the whole package, but especially to me like that You know, it's always stupid to compare someone to Tom Brady But like almost like that Tom Brady's like personality where it was just ice in his veins Yeah, that to me was probably the most impressive thing and I too has that too But I mean just what what burrow did in the second half of season and down the stretch and the playoffs and all that I was just like, okay. Yeah, he cemented it. He cemented it for me But I think it's a very close. I think two is a very close number two And I wouldn't be surprising if all of them are very good pros Yeah, the fun thing for me about burrow is that 33% of his games were against teams in the top seven in defensive SP Plus, which is just like it's nuts. He tore up He tore up like really good defensive in in like the highest fresher situations imaginable in a college football environment Excuse me, so he was just yeah, that was highly impressive to me So let's talk about the other quarterbacks in this class beyond Herbert tongue of I loa and burrow you got Jordan love who is Predictably polarizing he is like this year's like Daniel Jones or Josh Allen where you're kind of in or you're out His draft prop right now at Vandalsports book is 17 and a half with minus 112 on the over in the under Based on what you've been seeing with love and what you've heard about him Do you think that he goes Within the first 17 picks or is he dropping outside of that in the back half of the first round? This is a this is a very very tough one my like my gut Says he's a top. He's gonna be a top 10 pick like just based on the way that the NFL works Just the way that historically teams have been so so aggressive and going to get their guy I did not think Josh Allen and Daniel Jones were gonna be top 10 picks it's just the way the NFL operates and I will say the one thing that makes me a little bit hesitant to say that because normally I think in a normal season I'd be very very like oh, he's a top 10 pick for sure someone's gonna trade up but this year with the sort of glut of Available quarterbacks on the free agent market like James Winston's still out there You know like Cam Newton's still out there Maybe that has enough of an impact where teams are like, okay, we don't absolutely have to go up and get a guy But I still you know and I think Jordan love like Very very intriguing skill set very very high high upside But you know, he seems to me more like a late first round type player But I thought that about Dan Jones, too. So I don't even know I'm if I make it that bad I'm going I'm going the I guess what would be the over whatever it is. Yeah. Yeah Well, I think he'll go in the top 10. So whatever. Yeah. Yes. That's the over. Okay, okay So we're going that way Jordan love. What about you as like an evaluator you said late first Is that yeah situation where like if you were an NFL team? You'd be looking to trade back into the latter half of the first round to get that fifth year option Is that the the area you see Jordan love? Yeah, I think so. I mean, you know, I think again Like I said, he's got really high upside but at the same time, you know, you look at his decision-making You look at to me He had a little bit of inconsistency and his accuracy downfield his decision-making was pretty questionable and so On one hand, you know, like I can see like how teams could fall in love with the skill set And I think it is a factor that he was playing You know where he had to he felt that he needed to elevate the guys around him It you know, he's not very much talent around me. So he felt like he had to play a little bit of hero ball I think there's definitely that aspect of it But to me I still wouldn't necessarily feel comfortable taking him in the top 10 if I was a GM just because Just because of all those question marks and I think there's just so much variable Like you there's a lot of variability with any quarterback and there's a lot of risk with any quarterback But I'm not sure I'd be able to be comfortable with that or not Awesome. So Danny the next quarterback being considered as Jalen Hertz He's got a lot of buzz lately. His prop is at 69 and a half. It seems like he's having a late surge I've been particularly interested in Hertz because it looked like Lincoln Riley went away from his during abilities late in the year He had a lot more quarterback runs that he was calling when the competition got tough in the big 12 We'd love to know your take on Jalen Hertz. I like Hertz a lot actually I think I Think like you said, there's certainly question marks about his ability to throw He was a little bit too reticent to leave the pocket at the face of pressure that you know that kind of thing but I do think that He showed enough improvement in accuracy and all that all the important like metrics in terms of passing this last year that Teams will be very very intrigued by that improvement think that he can continue to improve because and I actually compare him to Dak Prescott in a way because if you look at it like some of the scouting reports for Prescott coming out of college It was very very similar to what Hertz is. It's kind of like crumbles under pressure Hit and miss accuracy tries to you know escape pressure too early is he a pocket passer all those things like you It's like you're reading a Jalen Hertz scouting report. So You know, obviously that came in and he continued to improve in his accuracy and and that's sort of I think what teams are going to be betting on I do think he's got a pretty good shot of being like like what we're talking about with Jordan Love the team's gonna trade back up into the first round and take him It seems like he's getting that buzz and and not that Daniel Jeremiah's Jeremiah's the end-all be-all in terms of the buzz, but he just put him in his top 50 and I think that is Sort of signifying, you know the direction. This is going I would definitely hammer Him being higher picked in 69 I I don't know I just think like someone's gonna take a chance on him and if it's either in the late first or somewhere in the second round That's not a reach at all for me So I think he's gonna go higher than that and that number was at 75 So it's been coming down already, but it sounds like could come down even more I think that your discussion about that at the back end of the first round is interesting because right now If you look at Vandalsports book the total on the quarterbacks in the first round is four and a half It's plus 330 on the over. That's pretty good juice and it's not just Jalen Hertz You were talking about this today on the ring around FL show how like Hertz could be there Maybe Jacob Eason is a guy people trade up in the back half of the first round to get Yeah Is there a big enough chance that one of these guys sneaks into the back end of the first round where you would be Only to bet the over at four and a half. I think I would you know It's it's a good enough. He says it's good enough payout or whatever to take that choice because I think Like he sends a great example like someone is gonna fall in love with his arm talent and even though he struggles You know it with decision-making face of pressure all that thing like he's got like a Stafford arm Like it's it's legitimately impressive and so If you if you find a team that can think they can turn him into like sort of in the role that I like I imagine him in like a tannin Hill role where he's doing a lot of play action and stuff like that Someone I think could fall in love with that for sure So it would not surprise me if if it if they did hit the over like he's just because like Hertz love burrow Eason sorry Herbert I mean, there's just like it's just gonna be I think there there's gonna be a run on quarterbacks and and You just never can really guess but I would not be surprised at all if that was the if that was the case Excellent, so let's go over the receiver position Jerry Judy at minus 125 is the favorite to be the first wide receiver off the board But a lot of other good prospects and CD lamb and and Henry rugs. Yeah, would you ride Judy here? Or do you like a little bit of long shots with lamb or rugs? I think I would go with lamb I mean, I do think that Judy has a solid solid chance to be like when you know the first receiver But I don't know like there's I think there's certainly teams that have lamb rated higher. I have lamb rated slightly higher and I Just think if they're very different stylistically like lamb is sort of an outside guy They go up and get it guy really really strong after catch Judy is more of a technician as a route runner He's very explosive in the short area and all that and he's primarily played in the slot last season So maybe that hasn't maybe that's a factor enough for some team to be like, okay we would rather go get to Andre Hopkins then You know like a whatever you want to compare Judy to I guess a lot of people have different comps to him But yeah, I just I think there's a good enough chance I would take us I would take a swing on lamb, honestly and the rugs one is is pretty interesting as well because someone like it's like the eastern thing someone's gonna fall in love with his speed man and It wouldn't be a shock to me at all if someone took rugs first just because they think he can change the dynamic of their offense so much Yeah, he's really fun. Just cuz like he's basically He kind of looks like say Quan Barkley after the catch, which is like disgusting to think about Yeah, just and like you ran a four or five oh at the combine and people like talk that up as like a negative But it's like I wouldn't like yeah, if I had made like a betting line on CD land It would have been higher than four point five. Oh, yeah, I'm like four five five or something So I think that helps him quite a bit. I think I plus one fifty five. He's he's pretty interesting, too I think I'm down about one as well. Let's talk about the running backs here. DeAndre Swift is a favorite He's minus 175 to be the first running back taking taken Jonathan Taylor a Twitter favorite He's plus one fifty five JK Dobbins eight to one who stands out to you most among that group Taylor for sure. I just think It is it's actually pretty fascinating to me that switch is still the favorite with the odds To be the first one taking because it feels like the fantasy community. Yeah by far favors Taylor just based on his analytics his size things like that but I Would say I would probably hammer Taylor just because he's a foundation type back and I think For a team that wants to invest this heavy of a draft or this this high of a draft pick on a running back They're probably gonna want a guy like Taylor who is more of a foundation back than I think Swift is I think Swift is You know, he's never had Like a bell cow type workload in college I think he's got like only like a few games where he's had more than 20 carries So I don't know if a team is willing to sink a first-round pick into that. It'll be interesting I think it's gonna be one of the more interesting storylines to follow to me Because I think, you know, both Taylor and Swift are very very talented, but I would I would put my money on Taylor I think Dobbins probably not a not a great great bet honestly You know, obviously good odds, but I think he's probably more of like a late second-rounder to be honest So I would I would probably put my money on Taylor in this situation Just because I think his skill set is the type of thing that teams will sink a high pick into Yeah, I mean, I personally love Jonathan Taylor as well Like I think he's got quicker feet than say one more way and I think he actually might be faster I know he's got like some track credentials. Yeah, I think it's really gross. Yeah There's yeah, there's I think there's only like a few runners that are his size that have gotten under 4-4 in the last like decade It's he's truly a very special athlete And so I think someone's gonna definitely kind of look at that and think that he can be a difference maker enough to Be worth that high of a pick. Yeah, I know absolutely and it to me It kind of boggles the mind that take one Barkley was kind of drilled in as the second pick Maybe that was just because the Giants had that pick Whereas I actually really like Taylor Moore having seen a lot of his games and you know He's not anywhere near that cat. Yeah, here's that's why someone which is probably fine because he's running back, but Talent-wise, you know, I think it's all there I don't yeah, cuz someone asked me that recently like why is Taylor not a top 10 like a Consensus top 10 pick and I'm like my first instinct was like oh teams have learned From their mistakes, but I'm actually not sure that's the case You know, I mean, I think they certainly we saw with what happened with like Melvin Gordon and we didn't get a huge contract like you wanted and Todd Gurley got released like all these bad second contracts for running backs Or maybe the NFL is starting to finally realize but again the Cowboys just got done giving one to Ezekiel Elliott So I don't you know, I don't know. It's just team to team. So Who knows but that's just kind of I Get I guess I can't answer that. I don't know why he's not like a consider a top 10 pick because they are similar type That type prospects. I guess maybe the lack of pass-catching maybe holding him back a little bit Yeah, that didn't come in until he was a junior and that seemed like it was a forced thing But like when they did throw it to him, he was really good. So I guess like I wouldn't view that as being like a negative for him maybe just a Organizational misfire by Wisconsin initially, right, right, right. Yeah, any other props that seem advantageous for you Danny as things stand right now over at Fandall Sportsbook So I was this this is an interesting when I was looking at the Jets first pick Yeah prop and I noticed that Tristan Worf's was 700 or plus seven or seven to one I think there's a solid chance that he could be their pick So I think that's pretty same with Beckton actually he's the same odds I don't know why you wouldn't bet one of those just on the off chance They fall in love with one of those guys both guys could potentially play left tackle Beckton was a left tackle throughout his career So, you know, obviously they did sign George Phant And so maybe that's enough for them to not take one I still think they need to take it pain you to say that as a Seahawks fan George Phant may answer their left tackle issues. Yeah, I mean back in I can't even remember 2017 or something we were pretty excited about him being the left tackle and then he tore his ACL in the preseason And then he was basically just like a sixth the lineman slash big tight end for them for the last couple seasons And so right I'm guessing they don't see him as the answer. Although he did get a pretty big contract But maybe that's just maybe that's just a hedge for yeah, and he has like a one-year-out, too So I think that that you know that makes sense, too And the thing with the worst is that Joe Douglas coming from Philadelphia and last year They took Andre Dillard traded up for Andre Dillard in the first round Andre Dillard was like this once you adjust your weight this combine freak who was the biggest freak at the combine this year It was Tristan Worf. So I think if he were to be available I feel like he would be kind of a no-brainer and I think for seven to one. I I'm on board with that for sure Yeah, that one stood out to me. I think a lot of people obviously think they're gonna take a receiver, but I Mean it what what impacts Sam Darnold more Do you think like having a top tier receiver or having time to throw? I don't know it'll be interesting to see what they decide, but I would probably lean OT Yeah, I mean I would too especially with like with Sam Darnold's James Winston like tendencies I would try to lower the number of times he's put in weird situations And the best way to do that is by giving you a better offensive line There's way too much James and Sam Darnold so I would want to just minimize the James that can come out Give him a little line. That's an amazing point actually. I love that. So now I minimize the James at all times Yes, exactly Well, that is Danny Kelly of the ringer. Make sure you check out his NFL draft guide to search for the ringer NFL draft guide and check out It's got a mock draft. It has Danny's big board. It's got team needs from Robert Mace as well Check all that out at the ringer. Danny really appreciate the time for today Stay safe and stay healthy and we'll talk to you again soon. Enjoy your draft prop. All right. Thanks guys. Appreciate it Thank you Covering the future One final big thank you to Danny Kelly for swinging by make sure you give him a follow on Twitter at Danny be Kelly and anything that I love about about about Danny's draft guide is that he has like Comps for each player, but like usually it's just like the player But like he has like interesting ways to phrase it like Jordan loves comp is a Yolo Marcus Mariota and like I think that these are all these are really fun But it was fun to kind of dig through that and see what his thoughts were on Every player that we'll be going here at the top of the draft Yeah, absolutely and the right right ups are you know pretty in-depth it means clearly washed the tape and Yeah, it's just a good really good way of getting caught up like the ringer Draft guide is it's pretty good because you can kind of interact with it on many different levels Well beyond just having a mock draft you can look at you know the scouting reports and and that's where it's super interesting yeah, and we were talking a little bit about Tua and Like I wish we could do a whole podcast on Tua cuz like yeah like Joe Burrow has fun stats We can state but like Tua has some too and like I could spend a whole podcast talking about those two guys Exclusively. Yeah, absolutely. I mean the thing I've loved to ever since he came in in the second half of that that national Championship, I mean he definitely played like a freshman in that half of football But you could see the accuracy obviously on the last touchdown that won the game for them over Georgia And he's just you know, he's just come he has played like he's very accurate He reads defenses really well, and those are really the first two things that I think you would want to look at in an NFL quarterback And you know would your bro? It's just it's just he was awesome last year. No one is debating that But it's just really a small sample size, right? Yeah, and and that's always until he is a consistently good pro There's those gonna kind of be that that knock on him Another you know interesting thing. I was looking at Danny's draft guy You know he's got Jeffrey Okuda as the number four pick the cornerback out of Ohio State And he's got a really interesting story too because he didn't start two years ago. He obviously had a great season this year Has the physical traits to you know be a shut-down cornerback But you know they pretty much had the same dudes in this playing cornerback at Ohio State This year and the past year Kendall Sheffield did end up leaving Ohio State after the 2018 season Was a was a late draft pick in and ended up playing a lot of snaps with the with the Falcons this year But Okuda wasn't actually the starter In 2018 so I find that interesting as well just because we know from what PFF has done that You know covered grades tend to be pretty random from year to year so You know was there some randomness that helped You know Okuda is great and what we're watching and could that potentially slip? I don't know but another thing I found really interesting In some of Danny's work. Yeah for sure and it's good to keep that context in mind always with the draft I want to quiz you quick just because we're talking to you If you had to guess what to a tongue of I loa's adjusted yards per attempt was on third and six or longer this year now That's a that's a down where the defense knows a pass is coming It's probably to more more interceptions more inaccurate throws The average a YA for like a first-round pick is probably run like 8.7 or so if you had to guess to us AYA on third and six or longer this year. Where would you put it? I mean are we taking out sacks? Yes, I'm gonna take out sacks because a NY 8 accounts for sacks AYA does not account for sacks But to add the second lowest sack rate among all quarterbacks or among the top-end quarterbacks here Jake Fromm is actually number one despite being a pretty bad athlete. I don't know. I presume it's good I presume it's over 10. It is a little bit over 10. It is 17.8 17.8 adjusts yards per attempt. It was 15 point. I think eight for his entire career So even when they knew the passes coming tool was slinging it and slinging it well So I really want to be healthy because like He's so fun. That's that's all I ask for is a healthy tour Let's move now to covering in the future and Ed you're gonna talk about the NFL draft I actually am too and talk about some resources we can use when trying to bet the NFL draft What did you find when you were trying to find some stuff around that? Yeah, so so I talked a little bit about wisdom of crowds It's actually one of the predictors that I use for many aspects of the work. I do So the idea is Basically the idea for the draft is you want to combine a bunch of mock drafts, right? So one mock draft isn't gonna be perfect But when you combine 60 or even more of them together, you get a pretty good estimate for You know who is gonna go where and it's the same idea with the pre-season and college football polls, right? None of those single ballots are perfect, but when you combine 60 of them together You get a very strong predictor for bowl performance really The idea is that you know, these sports riders get together and they can assess team strength Really well for the preseason AP pole. So for the NFL draft, it's it's not much different I've done some work on it in the past. I found it to be a pretty strong predictor Ben Benjamin Robinson has kind of taken over a lot of that work So you can find his work at grinding the mox comm And he's got a whole bunch of resources. He's been collecting like hundreds of NFL mock drafts and using those to predict where Various players are gonna go, you know, and it all makes kind of some common sense with Joe Brogan first and Chase Young second and all that Definitely resources that I would use for example, I went and looked at Players from certain teams and compared them to the markets and they were all pretty consistent Conferences as well. So I wasn't able to find any value when I was looking But that doesn't mean that you shouldn't use it as a resource to potentially find value with with some of the bets Again, it's all about this wisdom of the crowds in which one particular mock draft Isn't gonna be perfect But when you combine enough of them together, you can get a pretty powerful predictor for what is gonna happen on April 20 20 whatever the first round is I think so And it's also important to kind of project like, you know, obviously mock drafts that are coming in later Are gonna do a little bit better with more information coming in as well So keep that in mind as well when you look at it, but It can be a great resource. I know in past year is Arif Hassan of the athletic has done a consensus big board Which is kind of the same thing except it's not mox It's like big boards, which is straight-up rankings as opposed to Where they'll go in the draft and I'd also recommend that because it can Kind of help illustrate where the mox may potentially be a little bit wrong So I don't know if he's doing it this year. I haven't seen it yet But Arif Hassan believe it's Arif Hassan NFL on Twitter has done that as well So lots of good resources out there to check out if you're looking for Consent, you know wisdom of the crowds like Ed was saying now for mine I have been digging into research around offensive line because I've had this data on my computer about offensive linemen at the at the combine and Adjusting for weights and trying to figure out what it means and finally I have something I can use it for which is it Delights me I can bet on the draft using all this data So I looked at data at combines from 2010 on separating players out between tackles and interior offensive linemen And linemen can be Mackay Bekton. He was like 364 or something like that They can be guys who are closer to 300 so it's important to adjust all workouts for weight And once you have the weight adjusted numbers I compare them to see where players were drafted each year and there actually was a decently strong relationship between some metrics and Where players got drafted if we look at tackles specifically the weight adjust to work out with the closest correlation to draft position Was actually the 40-yard dash which may be surprising But that was the at least from a draft stock perspective the shuttle was second best followed by the three cone That means we can at least to an extent use these numbers when betting on where various tackles may go in the draft Which is interesting because this year We had two like historic performances in the 40-yard dash for tackles Those are from Tristan Werff's and Mackay Bekton and Werff's had the fifth best weight adjusted 40 among tackles at the combine since 2010 the only guys ahead of him are Basically three of them are all pros Terran Armstead Bruce Campbell didn't really work out Lane Johnson and Trent Williams Two of those guys went within the top four picks Lane Johnson Trent Williams both the fourth overall pick Werff's could be that this year Bekton was the eighth best weight adjusted 40-yard dash time But Werff's also had really good numbers in the three cone in the shuttle while Bekton did not compete in those Workouts so based on combine numbers I think we should be pretty high on where Tristan Werff's and where he'll go in the draft If you look at Fandall sportsbook He is currently the favorite to be the first lineman off the board at Fandall sportsbook He's plus 125 Bekton is plus 190 Jettrick Wills is plus 290 and this number has moved I think Werff's is okay at plus 125 But he was actually plus 160 a couple weeks ago when I wrote about this for number fire So would have preferred him there and I think that where they're at right now Jettrick Wills is actually pretty interesting at plus 290 But from a Werff's perspective my favorite market is Werff's draft position under eight and a half It's minus 152 which is implied probability of sixty point three percent and I can be pretty okay with that Yeah, we have both the Giants and the Cardinals picking within the first eight picks to hit the under here And they're in the market for a tackle If the chargers of the Dolphins were to decide to pass up on a quarterback They would also be in the discussion, but that seems less likely So I'm gonna focus on just the Giants and the Cardinals But there are also a couple of teams, you know with the Jets and the Browns Specifically that could look to leapfrog the Cardinals in order to draft the tackle of their preference So I think there are at least two Tackle needy teams and the top eight picks and there could potentially be a third If either the Browns or the Jets were to move up to let's say seven with Carolina trading down Given that they have a very analytics friendly from an office now would not be shocked if they were to move down It potentially allow the Browns or the Jets to get a tackle at seven So we could have as many as three tackle needy teams under eight and a half here So I like worse minus eight and a half minus one fifth or under eight and a half minus one fifty two But broadly I think that his workout metrics say we should be into him from a betting perspective Tristan Werff's an Iowa guy. It's kind of fun to look at all these Big Ten players and see where they're gonna go And the Big Ten dudes like for whatever reason they've had like these like insane Combine numbers like you're all like the the Penn State guys that one year I think it was the Barkley year who were just like putting down like these disgusting numbers like across the board Yeah, yeah for sure something similar lineman. Yeah, like and Mike is sick you the tight end also have like Historic numbers. So you're right. I'm excited. I like having a use for this offensive line Did it because I've had it on my computer for a couple years now. I'm like, hey, I actually have a reason to use it It's great. Yeah Over at grinding the mocks. He does have Tristan Werff's at at seventh. So, okay, there we go Be consistent with your under eight and a half. So Always good to put two different things together and they agree. I will happily take that Absolutely. All right quarantine corner for this weekend. Oh, what is the thing house been doing while essentially under house arrest for the past couple of weeks? Well, I've been reading a lot, but I actually wanted to talk about some of my favorite comedy specials Okay, because you can get these all on Netflix. I love comedy specials That is probably the majority of what I watch on Netflix. So let's just get right into it, man. Ricky Gervais humanity is just Drop dead hilarious. He's amazing And then also Neil Brennan he is famous because he co-wrote Chappelle show with Dave Chappelle back then Before that obviously went defunct. He's got a special called three mikes where he has three different mikes. So one is straight up stand-up Another one is one liners and the third one is quote-unquote serious stuff and It is not just hilarious I mean, it's just the stand-up comedy is awesome and he's actually got a great bit about football and football players in it But some of the serious stuff like not exactly what you expect in a comedy special will just blow your mind So Neil Brennan three mikes is awesome as well And then the best comedy special that I've ever seen is Dave Chappelle equanimity. He's he had a number of Netflix specials coming out You know when he was kind of coming back into the comedy world equanimity is the best You'll know it because kind of the punchline is and then I kicked her in between the legs Except he didn't say between the legs So he uses that punchline throughout the whole thing and the reason I love that one so much is because he just He's so brilliant and in the ways he like brings race into his comedy and just makes Pretty profound statements about race relations in this country while making you die laughing right as well So equanimity by Dave Chappelle and then I mean I gotta just because I don't only love male comics as well Talk about Ali Wong. She is so Funny and not just because she makes fun of cheap Chinese people, which I would know a little bit something about But baby cobra is awesome. She's done two specials Both when she's about seven months pregnant And they are both definitely worth checking out gave baby cobra is the first one and I think that one is slightly better but she is amazing and Yeah, also, she's got a movie called always be my baby. Yes. Oh, yeah, there you go I watched that like the week it came out Because we had watched the standard specials too. And so like when we knew that she had a movie coming out We watched it right away. It was awesome. I think okay. This is my I don't know if it's a hot take my semi-hot take is that she's Almost better as an actress than she is a stand-up and I really like her stand-up So like that's a pretty major compliment, but like I like her a lot in both I think she might have something else in the works She was in a couple episodes of big mouth if you've heard of that, but like She's really good in both. So I would also back up Ali Wong too. Yeah. No for sure. I mean, I think she's a good actress I think the writing and always be my baby. It's like some of the best writing I've seen in a comedy movie like maybe ever Keanu Reeves like Yeah, Mio is one of the like top five like the scene at dinner is like one of the top five like Scenes I've seen in a movie in a while Well, and then when he and then when they go back later and he actually watches them. Yeah And then writes a song about it. Anyways, we're giving away that spoilers man. Yeah. Oh, yeah, right. You're right You're right. Um Ali Wong is awesome. Highly endorse that one. I have watched most of John Mulaney's Stand-up specials more than one time He's good too, and he's also in big mouth if you are aware of that But I like John Mulaney a lot Michael Che had one from SNL. It's pretty good I like that one. I just like Michael Che like on SNL lots of watching him do a full Santa special is pretty enjoyable We saw Eliza Schlesinger at one of the casinos in upstate New York over the fall That was really good and that special is now on Netflix. You can watch that one That's their most recent one, but she has like five I think at this point and she has a new sketch show that came out this week And then one we watched the first weekend of social distancing was Taylor Tomlinson and she's like yeah Couple years younger than my fiance and I but like we're still close enough to that range We can like understand a lot of what she's saying So a lot of really good stand-up stuff out on Netflix But I actually have not seen the first two you talked about Neil Brennan and Ricky Gervais I might need to check those out too. Yeah, for sure. I mean Ricky Gervais That's the only one of his that's on Netflix. I believe okay, and then Neil Brennan Yeah, definitely Okay, no brands Neil Brennan is just I mean he's so good If you need another laugh if like you were into like Chappelle show and all that stuff check out his toasted Dave Chappelle for the Mark Twain award. Oh My god, it's so good. I yeah, it's just just church on YouTube Okay, if you if you like, you know if Chappelle show and any of that stuff like rings a bell with you Yeah, check out his tribute Today if we're talking Netflix, I should probably watch you if you watch this Tiger King thing That's been that everyone seems to be talking about. Yeah, I pulled I pulled up the preview Last night to see if it was something I could watch with my kids. I haven't seen any of them yet I would not watch it with your kids Like there aren't a lot of like I guess there are bad words, but like It's just more bad behavior. I guess that I wouldn't necessarily want cuz like People like online debate various things about this thing and like they're like, oh this person's the worst like no They're actually all the worst like they're all hideous human beings as long as you accept that it's enjoyable But if like I think the comp I would make is if you did not like breaking bad I think one of the biggest turnoffs of breaking bad was that there was no one you could root for in that show And I think that's a very fair criticism of it You're not gonna like Tiger King because like everyone is just terrible like they're all hideous human beings So it depends on what you're looking for I guess is the way that I'd phrase that Yeah, for sure. I mean, I'm definitely interested in checking it out amongst other things that I'm trying to do so So from my quarantine corner, I'm actually gonna stick with the same thing but my fiancee and I are huge fans of Extremely trashy reality TV like bottom of the barrel type stuff Our favorite one is called are you the one which is it's not trash. It's it's wonderful It's like if the bachelor were multiplied by 20 because it's You're trying to find the perfect match For 10 or 11 different people. So it's it's basically the the bachelor times 20, which is great but they've got one on Netflix now called love is blind and Yes, it's pretty interesting. Have you watched that? I Know but my wife has I was no actually I did. Well, I yeah, I've watched a little bit with her one time Yeah, it's like really like a premise. Yeah, so basically the way it works is they put a bunch of men and women in this Compound and they are allowed to talk to each other behind walls so they can't see each other they can only talk and They said they were talking for like eight hours one day to like these like basically like you speed date for an hour and talk people over the course of various days at the end you have to propose and It made me like so weirded out to be like You're proposing after eight days, and it's like it like was a weird weird concept from that perspective But like if you are like me someone who enjoys trashy reality TV where a lot of dumb stuff happens It fills that void is the way that I'd phrase it. So it's pretty interesting. I don't know how much have you seen of it? Well, I don't know I was I kind of like picked up on the premise and I was like this is like inhumane right kind of like cool and you unusual punishment in some ways of like Kind of pushing people into relationships, so I told my wife I was like look she she also likes bottom of the barrel Oh, yeah TV and I was like I've watched a lot of Kardashians with you, honey I'm I'm going to I'm gonna I'm gonna play the card not watch this with you I think that you need to ask her if she's watched already the one and if she has not Get her into that they have not been renewed. I don't think yeah, are you the one okay? If she hasn't gotten into it, I'd recommend it There are I think eight seasons of content to catch up on like we tried to catch up on love islands But like they're almost too many episodes like they have like 33 episodes per season and they're all good But it's so hard to get through all them so I would check with your wife See if she's watched already the one and she has not I would Nudge that up. Maybe we'll get fantasy around you know these Shows once they come back and stuff too because there's fantasy. I'm top chef Yeah, there's a lot of stuff you can do fantasy survivor. I've not watched survivor in probably 20 years But hey, you know right enjoy. Hey, it's a weird. We need stuff to bet on exactly Yeah, I was watching Jonathan Bale's do push-ups before we jump on this fall Did you did you bet? Did you get in on the action? No, I did not get in on the action I still think I would take he's he's more than halfway done with yeah number more than half his time left But still it's gonna hurt. I worked with Bale's like he was like kind of my boss when I did stuff for Roto Academy Rest in Peace and I know how like Motivated he is as an individual and I feel like even if he could not physically do the push-ups He would still do them. So I did not get on the action either Just because like by the time I saw it the juice on yes, you would make it was like minus 125 because like it had gotten bet Pretty hard. I I didn't want to go in at that point, but he's a yeah, he is a deranged individual I mean that in a very positive sense So hey if you're bored check out their periscope No, Bale's is awesome, man I mean a lot of the the fantasy Books that he's written are definitely worth checking out and then a lot of the things on his site are really awesome as well I remember kind of getting engaged with some of just looking at his bookshelf and yeah He's written a big article by 40 things. He's learned as an entrepreneur Definitely some great stuff over there. Yeah, absolutely, and I will not be following suit where there will be no push-ups out of me Any time soon that is all that we have for today here. Oh good. What you got? Oh, I just love the theater other right? Oh, yeah, they pick this time to do it They're making a huge thing about it, you know with twitch and like it's actually pretty interesting You know like I watched a little bit. It makes me think whether I want to have like You know some running challenge at the Michigan track just yeah, there'll be no one there There'll be no one there. You're free to go out now. So hey, you're good. I'm free to go exercise I would not even be breaking the shelter in place exactly Yeah, and I think the biggest surprise of that the Bales push-up challenge is that Adam Levitan is there and he is Like he has a solo podcast and he talks often about how big of a germaphobe he is So him leaving the apartment or house in a pandemic that shows you how big this is so High stakes for the Jonathan Bales push-up challenge. That is all that we have for today big final Thank you once again to Danny Kelly checking out on Twitter at Danny B Kelly and check out the ringer NFL draft guide as well Make sure you check out all the covering the spreads we've done here recently by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your Podcast and where people find you on Twitter and your work as well. Yeah, I'm at the power rank Check out myself at the power rank calm and then also the football analytics show. I went to not football for those last episode I had cliff sergeant on he runs YouTube channel called better than food where he helps you find great books And that's something that we could probably use right now with the with the lack of sports So it was fun talking to him I asked him in particular like What kind of books would you recommend for people who like football and data and he did a really good job with with a lot of Things and and put even more books on my list So football analytics show check out my recent show with cliff sergeant. All right an expanded quarantine corner over at the Football analytics show. Yeah, I'm at Jim Sonnis J. I. M. S. A. N. N. E. S. You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast We had a league of legends daily fantasy podcast this week. I thankfully did not give any analysis I was just there to play point guard But I was physically there Brandon Godula and Tom Vecchio know what they're talking about So insights for this weekend slate on Friday Saturday and Sunday All included there to search for the number fired daily fantasy podcast feed to get that big. Thank you to Calvin Theobald our video Producer he's been busier than ever for weirdly with without any sports going on everyone's going to Cal to get requested So Cal, thank you for taking time to help us out here today As always and thank you to everyone for tuning in this episode of covering the spread stay safe Stay healthy. We'll talk to you again soon. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network