 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The Power Trading Hour with your host, David White. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now, David White and welcome all to another excellent edition of the Power Trading Hour as we get started in the day. Let me get some stuff moved around here. What do we have? Well, is that right? Just wanted to make sure. Down 91 on the S&P cash on our way, I suspect to the low 4100s as we've talked about for the last 10 days or so. You can give me a call at 877-927-6648, but pretty much what happens in every market and that is a lot of people make a lot of money. They are unsure when the market fundamentals or fundamentals actually change in the way the market does, especially technical traders tend to come and go and they most of them haven't been through a real bear market. We've got one now, but you know what? I've watched trading rooms since 2000. I get wiped out two or three times. It is generally the ability not to change your opinion of the market. It looks like most of the people in the tiger's den are doing fairly well and managing, but generally the unwashed masses that think that they're smart. There's the old saying that everybody's a genius on the way up. Not so much on the way down. They tend to give away a lot of money. I remember there were a bunch of people in the first big gold run that gave away almost everything they made in six years on the pullback. As James Grant said once, it's important to buy gold, but it's more important to sell it. If you're a trader and you're thinking about something less than 20 years, don't conflate investing with trading. Eventually, you'll be right probably, but you're buying stuff to sell it. You're selling stuff if you're going short to buy it back at a lower price. Don't confuse a date with a wedding. I think it's probably the best way to say, but irrevolably, is that an even order? You're going to have markets in which people don't believe a market can come back. Now, a year ago or two years ago, when the wheels fell off the wagon, everybody was kind of in shock. Of course, the market repaired itself with huge amounts, fire hose, 747 and about a fleet of helicopters dumping cash everywhere. Now we're on the opposite side of that. Most people that have spent probably since 2010 watching the Fed go out. When I was a Boy Scout, they called it scout juice. They would throw lighter fluid on the fire to get it started. They've been, every time it looked like the fire was going to go out because the wood was a little wet, they were back with the lighter fluid. Boy can still smell that stuff in my nose, and I haven't even seen it in probably 20 years. Everybody uses those little chimney fires, fire starters now, so your burger doesn't smell like gasoline. I'll think about it in a minute. Never undermeshed the Fed. We use gasoline. Amazing quick response. So they're more than willing to let the markets burn here. They gave you a whole lot of warning, and now we've got the reality of a market, and people kind of still fighting it. I did have kind of some words of a market this morning. I didn't put it exactly in there the way I wanted, but let me pull up the newsletter because I'll go back and look and see exactly how I put it. Okay, get back here, okay. Vic's put call didn't signal any huge put buying yesterday. People didn't get all short. I'm suspecting that what we're going to see is a lot of people getting short right at the lows because you know what? The people throw in the towel and go short almost always when the markets at least short term bottoming. Now I use my sector oscillators. Those are various three different oscillators, and they're really just the three by threes and nine day moving averages and stuff like that over a period of time. But generally, when those first hit the lows, you've got about three or four or five days when you've got to wash out before you find some kind of low. I was also looking at things like the AmEx trend, and when we found lows before, it's either been something past four and of course something below 0.25. It was a 0.88 yesterday, which made me think along with the put call ratio that there wasn't any kind of low in yet. Generally, you're going to see at highs, very tough to find or much tougher. I'm going to say at least four times tougher to find a high than it is a low. In a low, everybody does pretty much not everybody. I would say 80% of the people do the wrong thing at the wrong time, and those signals are pretty bright and brilliant. We have not seen the people throwing the baby out with bathwater quite yet. My first level for a check and I said it earlier, I think around lunch, and that is my model shows about an 85% chance that we test 41.10 in the S&P cash. That's up for a week ago at about 70%. Still much better than a flip of a coin. You don't get that. 85, very, very high, and that's a combination of all the stuff I look at. I've got kind of a model. Is it always perfect? No. But is it pretty good? Damn straight it is. 877-927-6648. Burgers tastes like gasoline. Ozark Liar Fluid. Maybe that was it. Can't do it. Ozark Liar Fluid. I've gone to kind of the George Foreman grill if I'm not cooking on propane these days. That's why I probably haven't tasted it in 20 years, but I can still that smell. That gasoline smell. It smells like burgers. Anyway, a little nod to the apocalypse now. Anyway, a lot of stuff we're looking at. I had it in the newsletter this morning as always. Volume was higher. It's the first time it really kind of ticked out of it. We had a little over 13 billion shares compared to 12 billion. It wasn't a huge signal, but at the same time, we didn't see anything as we approached these lows, where the volume is decreasing. Below 18 billion shares, you could find a low. I think you're looking at 410 on the spies and hopefully 100 on the class of 2018. We shall return like MacArthur to the Philippines. Are you grinding in the market, but seeing little to no return? Or are you a successful trader simply looking to make your job a little easier? Learn to take the path of least resistance with David White's powerful trading newsletter. David White is an accomplished trader whose deep understanding of technology and the markets allows him to consistently find and share winning trades. Support and resistance define the ranges in which stocks trade. By understanding these trading ranges, David White is able to find a path of least resistance. 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From the moment the market opens until the closing bell sounds, Tiger TV has eight different shows with expert hosts to help you make the right moves with your money. Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Someone's going deep here talking about the white gas, coal, and stove. Remember that stuff? Now of course everything's electric, but that's it. Tesla getting ugly. It was ugly before, but we'll look at that today too. It's just at the very end of the downside, which we're probably getting fairly close when we see the big stocks like this start to fall. But I want to see some real demoralization as Jesse Livermore said. Probably time to cover. There's probably a huge amount of money to be made when we do find a low. Generally the lows that set up the way that we've got these things with huge down days have probably an update on like a Friday where everybody's short. Everybody's finally dumped in. You get about the first hour or two on a Friday. Now maybe it's a week from Friday, but you're going to have a rip into the close. That's just amazing. A rip your face off rally and it can give it all up the next Monday, but to have calls on a day like that. And again, you're not going to have any premium, whatever premium you had in the morning, it'll be gone if you even down a dime by the time you get to the close. But a lot of times you'll have, I'm going to say 100, 150 point rip. I don't know when that's going to be, but it will be when we have the lows in. And I'll probably all be in a day and give half of it back the day after. But if we're lucky enough to have it on a Friday, I'll be able to pick up some calls. And man, you already know which number I'm looking at, which is that 41 low 4100s and 410 on the spy. Yes. Everybody knows it smells like victory or teen spirit or a dead foot. You never know. 877-927-6648. I got a question about trading the displaced three period moving average. You're showing examples of selling the second breach failed recovery and a close below the moving average from uptrend. You also have the same for downtrends by the second Pearson failed recovery. I do. I just don't have anything I can look up now. The reason that I like the ones at the highs is that it's so hard to catch a high. And that's one of the few patterns that actually is great. As I said, generally, it's three or four times easier to buy a low. But that one of the patterns at the highs, almost always, you can pick one of 10 things that'll show you a low is in. There aren't many things out there that'll show you a high is in. But generally, the things I look for on a low a lot more than double repo patterns for lows is that massive amount of short selling. Generally, like I said, people will all dive in on the hand grenade just when the time is right for it to go higher. They can't. It's almost like an obsession that I've seen over the years and everybody that's got my newsletter or listened to the show for a long time knows when I'm on the hunt. When the game is afoot, if you were talking about Mr. Sherlock Holmes, and that is when everybody decides to go from one side of the boat to the other, it's generally time. Let's sit. What was I'm trying to remember who it was. Oh, Mark Twain. When everybody tends to have the same idea, it's time to pause and reflect. I kind of look at that and say, yeah, when everybody decides that it's all time to go short. Generally, that's when you get the rip your face off rally 877-927-6648 is the number to call. But yes, I have bought three gaps to the downside, but generally want to be in a bull market. If you've had a bunch of double repo patterns that worked at the top, the chances of them working right after that, probably not as good. But I do like to see off the bottom that consolidation sideways a close above the three by three, another close below it, and then by the next move back above it. So there is that kind of pattern. So it does work. But again, like I said, generally after you come down, the chances of going up in a V bottom as hard as the volume spin are pretty low. You want to see very light volume back into the low. Maybe we get that in the next couple of days, but generally it does not happen. So there you go, Zach. Thanks for the email. Yeah, I've got that. I just don't play it. Do you think we bounce at the end of the day with Microsoft and Google delivering good earnings after the close? No, I do not. I think if we're going to bounce it's after hours. Could we? Yes, but I'm not a big fan out here of saying that that's it. I saw what already I saw this morning, which is the VIX put call ratio didn't signal any huge put buying. A medium term low is still probably not in. Most of the sector oscillators suggested a low is not in until next week, and that is iffy. Volume increase suggesting yesterday's low gets retested quickly this morning, and all the all clear will not occur until we test the 41 10 on the S and P cash. That's from my newsletter this morning. I have one thing that was interesting and I haven't acted on it, but if we find some kind of test here in the next day, it is one of the ones I am looking at in a very depressed part of the market, where people are despondent as far as I can tell, and that makes me want to that's one of the few things that one wants me makes me want to buy is when everybody is very sour. As they say, sell on the trumpets, buy on the cannons, old French thing. You showed an example. Okay, we saw that in your opinion. What's the best way to trade options around Max Payne and weekly operation expiration? Weekly expiration. And again, I do what most people think is Max Payne. It is not if you see me ever show it. There's a lot of dog legs or hockey sticks in the distribution. And that's what I look at. A great deal more than the X marks the spot because that doesn't tend to work as well as a lot of people think it does. They haven't looked a little farther into the data, but when I get into that. But weekly operation, maybe on stocks like Apple and Microsoft, I'm a little bit better on, but a lot of times there just aren't enough options to give you a good signal on the weeklies. That's not always, but generally, if you look at the other ones, BBQ. Let's take a look at that. What is BBQ? I just can't think of it at the moment. Is that actually anything? BBQ holdings. Okay. Entry below 14. We had a 50% retracement. You're back up. Got a bearish engulfing today. In a bear market, I want a low, which would be $12 in this case of March 11th low before I did anything. Again, stocks with 40,000 shares. You might as well, as far as I'm concerned, you might as well be throwing dice, flipping quarter. I don't think you can reach for what I do isn't a lot of correlation in stock. We'll be back in a minute. The gold market has taken off topside in a large way. If you want to take advantage of this sector now is the time to subscribe to my Gold Report. The Gold Report is a comprehensive look at the metal sector as well as the markets that move gold, which is the currency and bond markets. New subscribers get a 30-day money back guarantee, so you have nothing to lose. Every Monday morning, I publish the Gold Report with coverage of gold, silver, bonds, the XAU, HUI, GDX, as well as more than 30 different mining equities. To see for yourself the types of profitable trades that are recommended within the Gold Report, sign up now by visiting TFNN.com. Don't miss out on the next great gold trade. Sign up today. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. 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The art of timing the trade charts allows you to scan thousands of stocks for Fibonacci formation setups, including guardleys, ABCs, butterflies, and much more. The art of timing the trade charts is designed to help you when scouring the markets for stocks just beginning to form the trading patterns that many investors spend days, weeks, or even months searching to find. And right now, we're offering licenses available at only $79 a month. We are so confident that you're going to love this new charting software that will even give you a 30-day unconditional money back guarantee. Don't miss out on this incredible new piece of software. Get your copy of the art of timing the trade charts today by visiting TFNN.com. Was there something above this? Okay, there it is. Yeah, I saw it. Now, I'm not familiar with it, but I'll take a look at it during the next breaks. Chartfest each weekend. Okay, I'll take a look at it. Anyway, question about the Yeti. You know, the Abominable Snowman. And what's the other one? The guy up in the northwest. What's the other one? You got the Yeti and the, I mean, you got the Abominable Snowman. And what is that? The other guy. Maybe somebody, Sasquatch. Those guys get most of the love. Yeti doesn't care, though. I'm playing words there. I just couldn't remember all the joke. Bigfoot. Okay. And Bigfoot. 877-927-6648. Anyway, Yeti. Not Yeti. Is this going to come out? And question was buying puts on it. You know, I would have said the close back below the high up here was August 6th with 1.8 million shares last year. You got into November 5th with 935,000 shares. So about half of it. That's what I like. Now, you close back below it and you're going to see the double repo pattern come up right here. And that's what I like to go after. Going back into this so you can look at it. This is October 14th of 2021. And you go up for 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17 days above it. You really never get very close to kicking it. You have the first failure, which starts on the 11th or no, the 10th of November. You go underneath it a few days. You go back above it. Then the next close below it. You generally get a little bit more volume. You didn't have much there. So I didn't pull the trigger. But you know, this starts the move generally into a massive failure mode in this. And we've talked about why I don't think or never thought this was a great investment long term. But you don't always catch these things. But I like the top formation in this. I don't see a whole lot out here that says you want to buy it. You want to see some kind of low come in, about 800,000 shares. The February 24th low was $54 at 1.7 million shares. Even yesterday, you had one and a half million shares. That didn't have big enough shrink out here for me to get involved and think there's anything to the upside. It's not enough. And it didn't break with more volume. So I'm not on the other side. Neither fish nor fowl on Yeti. I think there are much better shorts out there in the market. Okay. The only games we're getting is around our belts. Bada bing bada bomb. Okay. Yeah. Yeti is all a marketing company. Actually, kind of interesting on YouTube, there are a lot of guys making Yeti coolers out of regular coolers. They're just going and getting that expansive foam and drilling into the thing and filling up the coolers like Coleman, $30 Coleman coolers and $10 worth of expanding foam and getting four or five days of ice in the same thing. I just never thought that foam was that expensive and why Coleman and the rest of the companies just didn't think about putting it in there. Certainly, the fiberglass is more expensive than the molds that Yeti uses. But like I said, you can buy the same thing today with a member's mark on it from Sam's Club for half the price, and that's probably still rather expensive for what you get. They have done very good in marketing. Anyway, I don't see anything out here. It's neither fish nor fowl. You don't have a great sign of a low. You don't have a great sign of breaking the previous low with more volume. So neither fish nor fowl. I would go elsewhere. 877-927-6648. The phone lines are totally booked, but if you call now, I'm told by Larry Pezzavento, you might get in. Okay, let me go through a couple of these emails here and see if there's anything new that I haven't hit. Okay. Snap, crackle, and pop. Can anybody in the den or out there email me with the name of the fourth one from the Rice Krispies? Snap, crackle, and pop. Yet there was one. He was only around for a year. What is the fourth member? Where is a good sign on Snap? You're almost there. I love to see these stocks hit with double gaps right to the center of them. 26 bucks is exactly what you're looking for. You got 26 million shares to 32, 33 million shares right now. The energy was higher from the April 5th low down to the April 26th, which means that you may have some consolidation. And that may take a couple more days. But what you want is to hit 26 bucks, 26.50, something like that. You want all the volume to come out. You want something like a day with about 10 million shares and a close back above the three by three would be something that would be a clincher for a bounce. And that bounce could take you to 32, 33 bucks. So not a bad looking chart. I dislike all the energy though, off that high on April 5th down to this low. Again, I think we're going to find some kind of low. I think you're going to get a rip your face off rally. Maybe Friday, maybe a week from Friday, maybe two weeks from Friday. They'll set something up. Everybody, as soon as I see everybody getting short, I'll start talking about it. But I have you not set that scene yet. Until you have a lot of shorts, the risk reward is always significantly to the downside, because if everybody just walks away, there's nobody to buy. I love it when there are a lot of people short. Even if I'm wrong, I'm probably not going to lose that much money, because there's going to be somebody wanting to cover the short position. It may be early, but I'll be able to get out without losing a losing a eye. Oh, I have a call. I'm an announcing we have a call John in South Carolina. How you doing today? Good day. How are you? Appreciate you taking my call. I just have a quick option question. You might have covered this before or something, but when you're doing short term puts and calls for two or three days, do you generally buy at the money or do you get out of the money in good little ways? How do you determine that kind of placement? Well, answer that after the break. All right. Thank you. all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up and coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com. That's 727-329-8322. Call us today. The technology around us is changing every day. With so much happening, it can seem impossible to keep up with all the information. David White's investment newsletter, the technology insider, is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future. David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology. His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for valued tech stocks as well as entry prices, target prices, and stops to set for each trade. 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The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Distributor, foresight fund services, LLC. Don't forget you can listen to Tfnn live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. That's tfnn.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Still have on the line, Mark Pollard. Yes. Okay. So what do you, you're, there's two things. If you're talking two or three days, it depends on what you're talking about. Are you talking about two or three days before expiry, the monthly expiration, the Friday expiration, or just two or three days in general? Just two or three days in general. And do you generally, do you generally stay in the current month or you maybe go out a month? I mean, you know, if you're just playing here's two or three days, I guess the delta changes some, if you go out further, I guess. There's two ways that I look at it. Either I know that there's some kind of long term or I'm fairly short that there's a short term. When a long term, I'll probably buy something at the money. When I'm buying something, we'll say a couple of days before it expires. I almost always buy way, not way, but at least some out of the money puts and calls. So if it's a long term, it's generally, I know that it's probably going to move. I don't know quite when I don't have a real heads up for the work I do and options for my options charts. But, you know, the one thing is, you know, those are kind of like a general guide, which is a lot more like a, what is that? I'm trying to think. Do we have it here? Oh, that's it. Here. The code is more what you call guidelines, the natural rules. Yes, that's what I was looking for. More like a guideline than actual rules. My flight instructor, no, it wasn't. It was the FAA check right inspector who told me procedures will save your life until you figure out that you need to avoid them in some specific reason. All those rules are just there to keep you alive until you gain experience. And I kind of took that to heart a lot. So there's nothing that overrides better judgment in the way of rules, but rules keep you out of trouble. You've got to have special permission to avoid your own rules. Most people, you know, you need to have some kind of abiding belief, not just a kind of a, it's kind of like, what is it? Murder? You got to have, what, a, you know, if you just a reasonable doubt, right? Opposed to, opposed to somebody in a shoplifting, well, God looks shifty, we'll give them the, we'll give them the chair, right? So you've got, you've got to know a lot more about it. But again, what I'm looking for is some kind of significant move. Now, on a short term basis, I'm looking for massive shorting or zero shorting. I want everybody out of it at the top. And I want everybody on the opposite side. It's going lower at the bottom. And that's generally when I'll look for things like Friday expirations and stuff. If we're going into options expiration, I know that, you know, they'll probably hang us out to Wednesday, Thursday or Friday. So I don't like to get in those weeks. Your odds are pretty bad on Monday and Tuesday, maybe even into Wednesday, they get a little better on Thursday. And if you can wait till 11 o'clock on Friday, pretty good. I think in the den on Friday, I was doing some fast finger trading. And one of the dinners had a, what I thought was a very good risk reward. So I bought the calls and it went to exactly where I thought it was and sold it. And then of course, I don't know, when you, when you bought those calls, were they in the current month or? Yeah, they expired, they expired that day at four. Oh, that's cutting it pretty close, huh? Well, it is, but I would, I had a high probability that they were the spies were going to close. So I went ahead and took them. I think it was, I don't know, it's the three or four points. Is it a better delta than going to the next week or? No, it's the risk reward, you know, you 10 to one or something, right? You buy something for a quarter and sell it for two bucks. That's, that's, you know, but you have to have a fairly good abiding belief. I was watching the options all day long, right? Now, of course, it probably should have closed at that level, but with like five minutes to go, the Fed came in and threw an anvil to the market and knocked the spies down four points. Well, as soon as it hit my target, I was out. And some of the people were talking about, as I say often, sell when you can, not when you have to, right? They were doing the same thing and they gave it all up. Just don't get greedy on it on the very short term. Don't get greedy. Don't, don't be out there, but the whole thing is, and I bring this up from time to time. What is a good trader is a good trader that makes, let's say three or 5% on 10 trades in a row and then loses maybe 20% on one trade or 10% on one trade or a guy that loses nine times in a row, but then makes 2000% on his trade. Who's the better trader? Exactly. Right. So you can, if you can, the more you trade, the more little tiny losses you're going to take. I think, you know, is the way I see it. I like either, you know, options are going to expire in 24 hours or options that are going to expire in two weeks to a month. That's kind of what I'm either doing one or the other. My odds in the meantime are either I'm not short or long, long enough midterm and then the risk reward. So you make 100 or 150% when you ride or 200%. I need to make about 400 or 500% and then just be right about half the time. And that's kind of my model out there. Makes total sense. Yeah. And a lot of people, they think that they're the Miami Dolphins from 1973 where they're going to win 16 games in a row. It don't happen. It doesn't happen in options. You better have a strategy that sets you up for losing a great deal when you play with options. And of course, as I said, the best thing to do is be able to lose a little bit and maybe make a lot. Now it doesn't happen all the time, but when you see something very stretched on a Friday afternoon and you can get in and out fairly quickly, you know you're going to be in front of the screen and you have the ability not to get greedy. So when you can, so when you can, because that four o'clock time is coming. It's coming. It's coming to get you. I had the TQs all day yesterday and because we closed almost right at the high yesterday, I was going to close the mouth. I should probably go ahead and great. Whenever you have a little voice that, you know, you should probably go ahead and do it. You probably should do that. But because we closed almost at the highs, I didn't take the money and run. And so naturally, I gave some of it back this morning because we got them. But yeah. So that's kind of my thing. If you really want to understand what I do, the first thing I do is say, lead fooled by randomness. You haven't read that book. If you haven't read that book, you don't understand why Kathy Woods was destined to fail and why huge amounts of risk reward are necessary. We'll be back after this. I appreciate it. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. At TFNN, you'll get advice and guidance from the authority and technical market analysis. And it's not just dry tedious text either. TFNN airs live financial content streamed live on TFNN.com and TFNN's YouTube channel with Tiger TV, live every market day from 8.30 AM to 4 PM Eastern. 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I'm talking about one of the member of the FAB4 who bet his entire fortune on coming out with that Monty Python movie and ended up making, I think, five times his initial investment on it. Not Ringo, not Paul. What is it? George Harrison. Yeah, he financed the entire thing and made like four or five times the amount. And all the guys in the troupe ended up making, I think, like 10 or 15 million a piece back in the 80s. That was some real money. What was the name of which book? Somebody in the den asking a question. Oh, the Meaning of Life? No, no, no. This was a search for the Holy Grail. No, search for the Holy Grail. The first movie. Then they did the Life of Brian and then the Meaning of Life. But all great movies. I do digress into the clothes here. Tom O'Brien will be back shortly to take you into the clothes. We're kind of bouncing around here. 85% chance, not 100% chance. I'd never, there's no 100% chance I've ever found in the market. But a fairly good chance that we test a low 4100 or 410 on the spies here. We're so close. It's like a magnet kind of sucking us in. I don't know what's going to happen tonight. Maybe it takes another couple of days. Maybe we bounce. Maybe we don't. One of the things you want to look for tonight is General Motors. They're looking very forward to seeing what General Motors is talking about about getting chips to build their cars. That may be even bigger than Microsoft. So when you can, not when you have to. We'll see you here tomorrow on the same back channel, same back time.