 Good day fellow investors, welcome to the economic fundamental stock market news. I hope you're fine, the stock market is at all time highs, everything is booming, so I really hope you feel great. And we'll also discuss that a little bit towards the end of this news, how come that the stock market is so strong and for how long it will last. That's the most important thing, never fight the trend, especially when it's such a strong trend. Other news we'll start with discussing why Europe is weak, even if it doesn't seem so, how the US is strong, great GDP data, a bit about the blockchain craze and how to take advantage of it and then we'll conclude with the SAP 500 interesting parameters that show what's going on with general stocks. Let's immediately start with Europe. Retail sales growth is getting stronger and stronger in Europe, France, Germany, Netherlands, Spain, whatever is getting stronger, which is very good for the economy, for everything. Also economists expect stronger growth in much of Europe, Moody's real GDP forecasts are all positive, again very good points. But all of this strong economic growth is okay, then it's a little bit less okay when we know that all the monetary easing is what's pushing this growth. And then I would like again to touch on Ray Dalio and populism this time because whenever he does an interview he says that populism is his greatest concern. And we have seen what has happened in Spain, where Catalonia declared independence, now they're fighting over can they go independent, doesn't matter. What matters is that we had the Brexit a while ago, now we have Catalonia and we have all those issues, those populist separatist issues when everything is going well with the economy. Imagine what will happen with Europe, the European Union and all the countries in the European Union if there would be a recession. These separatist movements, populist movements come when everything is good, everything is growing. However, in a recession if the situation would be even worse and that's why I'm long term very very bearish on Europe and the Europe. The situation in Catalonia now Spain gets ready to take control after Catalonia declares independence. What's also very important here is that people focus on getting independent, looking after what's mine and they are not focusing on increasing productivity, increasing competitiveness, increasing their knowledge because Europe has to fight against Asia, against the US just to stay, not fight, let's say stay at the same level. However, if people focus on these things, independence and things like that, then this is the result. Spain has an unemployment rate of 16%, compare that to the US which is at 4% and you see the crazy difference, the situation is not good in Europe. You cannot have 16% unemployment rate. So really when the focus is on such stupid things and the focus is on such stupid things because money is free. In the European Union money is practically free. Negative interest rates for most countries, small interest rates on junk bonds, so money is free. It seems that people here have an imperialistic and title mindset that they have inherited in the past one million years when Europe was dominating the world, colonizing everything and so. I really should think that Europe should focus on productivity, knowledge, competitiveness, how to improve technology, development, growth instead of focusing on populism. We had the Brexit when most elderly people in the UK voted for the Brexit because they thought there would be more money for healthcare in the UK. If people would focus on developing healthcare in the UK, they would have much better healthcare system than thinking about getting some money from the European Union saved. So it's a very, very tricky situation. I don't like it as a person even if everything is going well but I just hope it doesn't break and it lasts for as long as I can buy a house in Switzerland or move to China or New Zealand. We'll see. Continuing with what's going on in Europe, the ECB is about to scale down its bond buying program but make it longer. So even Mario Draghi is afraid to push the brakes. The Germans want to push the brakes, Mario Draghi doesn't allow because he knows that if he pushes the brakes Italy, Spain and all those countries will be in trouble. If you look at the European High Yield Index, that's the junk bonds in Europe, the yield is 2.21%. Never in history there has been such a low yield and it's getting lower because the ECB is buying everything. There is so much money and everybody is just chasing any kind of yield. Look what happens in a crisis to 25, 26% in went in 2009. So these yields are really crazy. Junk bonds at 2% is something really crazy. Countries issue bonds, junk bonds at 2-3% for 10 years. That's impossible, not sustainable but this is the reason why Europe is doing good. I should start maybe a junk business and take a lot of loans, pay myself a nice salary and then when the recession comes who cares. So to conclude on Europe, the situation is good, take advantage on it. However, the ECB wants to keep the euro weaker for longer so that the European Union can compete against the world, against the US, against Asia. So it's a very, very engineered system where I think they're just pushing the can down the road. So be careful with that and please have short to medium term positions to take advantage of what's going on of the free money. Long term try to be short. Going to the US, extremely positive news, 3% growth despite the natural disasters that have hit the US which is very, very good. However, the growth comes mostly from consumer spending on goods, private inventories, consumer spending on services and only then from business investment. So consumers again are taking advantage of low interest rates. They are very positive as we have seen in the last news with the consumer index. So they're taking loans, getting more into debt. Okay, smart to take advantage. The economy is growing at a strong rate so it might even cover for the increase in debt. If you look at the key indicators from Credit Suisse, if there will be a recession in the US, we can see that they are all positive. So short, medium turn, we shouldn't fight the trend. The economy is growing. There is more business so everything should be fine as long as these indicators show it should be fine. Very, very interesting. Going on to blockchain, this is a chart of a stock that was called online PLC and then it became online PLC blockchain and bam, the stock price increased 400% in a matter of a day. So this reminds me when back in the 1990s a stock would add E as a prefix or COM as a suffix on its name, the stock would explode. So we are there now with the blockchain. What does this mean? Of course, it's crazy. Who cares? But how can we take advantage of it? The stock I recommended for this month Xinyuan has also a small blockchain business. If people maybe recognize it, maybe they'll start buying. I would love that. So I'm trying to expose myself to the trend but without risk. If Xinyuan changes its name to Xinyuan blockchain, I'll make a lot of money, even if it's crazy. So I'm not condemning it. I understand trends, irrational exuberance and I want to take advantage of it. If you have any idea how to take advantage of it in a smart way, not buying initial public coin offerings of something, please share it with us. And now let's see what's going on in the stock market which is getting stronger and stronger. This is the biggest sector weight in the SAP 500 index. It was financials in the 1990s, then the dotcom bubble tech, then again financials, then financials went into a crisis and now again, tech stocks are the leaders. I think as we are in a digital world it should be so and tech stocks will remain the leaders in this case if there aren't any huge disruptions. This is also very, very important. The passively managed funds continue to gain versus actively managed funds. And this is very important because it means that more and more money doesn't think. So it's mindless money which is excellent when the trend is positive like it is now. As I said, don't fight the trend. But all those mindless money if there is panic will rush to sell panically because it's money that doesn't think. So it's very, very important to know at what level we are. Further, in order to show you how that mindless money thinks, look at this. Fund assets tracking the SAP 500 are getting lower and lower in ETFs and passively managed mutual funds. And most of the money is going to large caps. So large cap stocks, large cap investments are the focus of most of the money. Again, so really following the trend, staying strong and this self-reinforces that trend that we see self-reinforcing itself with the SAP constantly hitting new highs. There is a lot of talk about repatriated cash tax benefits. And again, that would mostly focus on technology stocks which have the money to increase their earnings through buybacks if there is a tax holiday. This would only push technology stocks higher. A very nice chart here. Days, the index fell at least 2%. You can see that in the last year and something there hasn't been one day that the index fell 2%. There was a lot of days in 2008, 2009, a lot of days in 2012, but since then very, very few days. It's very, very interesting how complacent the market is. University of Michigan with all their service, they interview people and what's the percentage of Americans that are 100% convinced that the stock market will rise next year? And we are now at 15%, which is a very, very high number. And if you compare it to the past, when people are convinced that the stock market will rise, it's not such a good time to buy. When people are not convinced, where they have convinced the opposite, like in 2009, 2012, then it's excellent time to buy. Long-term perspective, it's difficult to be a contrarian. However, I think we really should be smart about what we are doing. Nevertheless, the trend is there, the trend is strong. And I'm also positioned short to medium turn. I want to take advantage of some things that are happening in the commodities environment, the inflation that's coming. And then I'll see what I'll do next. However, I think I can match the SAP 500 as I'm doing now in the last two years, which is okay. But I could have done better if I was smarter. Nevertheless, it's very, very interesting. Thank you for watching. I'm looking forward to your comments and I'll see you in the next video.