 The value going into Monday's session, no matter what happens, is definitely to the downside. Again, it's very, very tough to turn around and do both. Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of TheAx is at Trader.com. We can update, show hope everybody is doing well. For all of us who live in the Northeast, crazy couple of days. We had 60 degree weather yesterday. It was beautiful, right? I was literally in a t-shirt and sweatpants yesterday. Gorgeous weather. We wake up this morning, we got like two, three inches of snow. And as crazy as that sounds, it's actually tamed of what we saw in the stock market this week. And the last video I recorded was Wednesday. Thursday nights, I always take the night off just to kind of reset my brain for Friday. So there's never a video on Thursday, very rare unless I switch places, unless my kid has a game or something. But the last time we spoke about, we were entering the 200 day moving average the night before, okay? Which was very, very important, which was super bullish. And we had this CPI number coming out the next day. And one of the rarest things you can see or kind of come across is a major moving average being reclaimed twice, twice literally in two weeks. And the next day, the market loses that moving average, which was very, very odd. It's kind of like 60 degree weather in New Jersey and then snow the next day. But that's exactly what happened. And the craziest part of what we saw Wednesday into Thursday's action, we actually gave the bulls the benefit of the doubt. Matter of fact, if you watched the video on Wednesday, the title was, okay, bulls don't eff this up, right? Don't eff this up. You reclaimed the 200 day moving average again. And what happened was we gapped down on a, you know, it looked like on the surface a pretty bad CPI number. But to the bull's credit on Thursday, we started to rally. A lot of names went green on the day. On NVIDIA went green on a day. Tesla went green on a day. It was looking really, really good. And then slowly, but surely you started to hear and see geopolitical headlines, right? Russia, Ukraine. Russia, Ukraine. And slowly, but surely that 200 day moving average that we reclaimed for the second time since the Google's earnings, slowly, but surely went from technical analysis, good to technical analysis. Well, what the hell is going on now? And slowly, but surely we sold pretty aggressively into the close leading up to Friday session. And as overnight, we started hearing more murmurs. You starting to see more images on, from CNN and other news dissemination areas that slowly, but surely that Russia was positioning on the, you know, all these different areas whether it was on Crimea or Belarus or other parts of the Ukraine. And now you're talking about the invasion is real. So there was a lot of moving parts. And no matter what happens via technical analysis, the one thing that we can't control is headlines. And that's what took over really aggressively come Friday. But the most important part if you recall from Friday's session was the market was selling off way before the headlines started to get intensified. And the one thing that we did know going into this week was that number one, we were sitting on this whole channel here for the whole week above the 362 that the bulls reclaimed the 200 day moving average. But the flip side, we also knew about the 352 area that you've been watching this broadcast, especially in the first two, three days of the week. We know how important and they held that bottom channel was. So they broke and reclaimed the top. And then Friday with all these very aggressive headlines, they started going through the bottom channel here like a knife through butter. And it was very, very aggressive and there was no balance. And that was the most important part. Now going into the weekend, you could turn around strictly from the technical view and say, well, wait a minute, how can you possibly feel comfortable being long over this weekend, right? You have number one, a technical deficiency, breakdown of the recent range, which is obviously bearish. And now you have a big multiple, right? You have a big headline hanging over you over the weekend of what potentially could happen in imminent invasion. Now, again, over the weekend, we saw on Saturday night, apparently there was either a Zoom call, a telephone call with Biden and Putin, trying to throw in some diplomacy. Apparently there was some sort of discussion between Putin and the Premier of China. Hey, don't mess up our Olympics. If you could invade like a week after, a week and a half later, listen, we have to know who wins the downhill slalom. So don't mess around with our Olympics. So apparently they're like, all right, I'm good, I'm good. We'll wait, we'll wait. It's not imminent. So I don't know, is this political banter? Is this kind of like measuring their male parts? We don't know what's going on, but the point is right now it's Sunday morning, it's 9.20 in the morning. We really haven't had any fresh headlines. And based on what time you watched this video, we could be completely in a different area, six to 10 hours from now. So if you look at the core of where we are technically, again, we can't control anything that's not technical. We can't control headlines, like I said before, we can't control any outside factors. We could only control our research. That's the name of the game. And when you look at tonight's research, and if you've done your research ahead of the Super Bowl, you'll see there's a lot of really good downside channels, right? I mean, think about when you're breaking down a macro range that held for a week straight, and we finally closed below it. As you can imagine, you're gonna have a lot of weak-looking charts. You have Tesla that broke down, you know, broke a pretty big channel on Friday. You got Facebook looks like it wants to go back to its lows. You got PayPal, right? You got PayPal cracking this, you know, this recent little baby channel here. You got Google, we'll get to the pivots in a second. We got Google, literally. Thank God Google beat their earnings and had that 20 for one split. Where would the stock be at $400 a share? Hasn't had an uptick. It literally has not had an uptick, a meaningful uptick since its earnings. Amazon that had, you know, pretty good earnings and had that big rally, now lost its 10-day moving average. So it doesn't feel like, you know, that the big segue of reclaiming anything was real. And again, it's very easy to say that. 2020 is perfect vision, but when you look at how the stocks reacted prior to this news being disseminated and the flow became very, very aggressive, you have to kind of say, you know, it's very, very tough to turn around and have a lot of faith in the bull thesis, at least going into Monday's session. Now again, they could turn around at any point, remember this, you know, I'm recording this at 9.30 in the morning, at any point they could turn around over the weekend and say, ah, don't worry, the invasion won't be imminent. There'll be some diplomacy. We could gap up, you know, 300, 400 points on Monday. But the point is you can't anticipate that. You can't assume that. And you have to just use the research. You have to use raw data to kind of, you know, give yourself a really fighting chance of what happens next. Now, is it possible they do come out and say, hey, there is not going to be an imminent invasion? I don't use the word attack. Imminent invasion, absolutely, right? And the futures could gap up 200, 300 points. But at the same time, based on what we saw on Friday's session, they could sell off very, very quickly. So the value going into Monday's session, no matter what happens, is definitely to the downside. Again, it's very, very tough to turn around and be bullish. But you always have to, you know, keep in mind that, again, a headline-friendly environment doesn't exist. And unfortunately, anything could come out at any given point. Again, we don't know what these leaders are thinking. We don't know what the essence of anything that's going on, on the surface, is real or not. So we have to do the best of our ability to kind of trade against, excuse me, trade with the tide and not against it. And the week turned out to be a pretty solid Friday. You had some early pivots working to the upside. And then everything started breaking down. And the most important part of what I say, especially to newer traders, and I've always maintained this, you don't need to trade every single day. A lot of you guys have fully funded accounts, whatever the X amount of dollars in your account is. But unfortunately, a lot of you guys, and to no fault of your own, a lot of you guys are brand new to traders. You're young, you're just getting started in life. That's great, that's fine. That's absolutely normal. And you don't have the luxury of having an X amount of dollars in your account. So I always maintain the fact that you don't need to trade every single day. You're never gonna get that A plus setup on a daily basis that you could turn around and take advantage of. Breakouts and breakdowns don't happen on a daily basis, right? There's only one breakout and then everything else is continuation. There's only one breakdown and everything else is continuation. So if you're patient enough, and I think a lot of you guys have finally really figured that out. If you are patient enough and wait for those macro daily chart breakdowns, right? Those key levels that either stocks stop at the top of supply and needed like a week, we can have maybe two weeks to get through it to the upside. You know, like names, for example, like a NVIDIA when it broke out on Friday, right? Broke out of this big macro channel that was holding up for two weeks. A name like AMD did exactly the same thing, right? Had this big earnings move and finally broke out of this daily channel. But on the flip side, it works the opposite as well. Stocks that made recent lows on in the last few weeks, they tested those lows and when those lows started breaking down and confirming macro, those are the A plus trades, right? The Tesla pivot for $3, $4 in the middle of a channel, it's cool for cash flow. And again, if you have a big enough account, you could probably take advantage of that. But most traders need that measure potential move, that big potential trade that you could take two, three, four days to play out, but the measure potential is real and it's standing in front of you. And I think a lot of you guys have seen now for the last several days, if you are patient, right? And you really believe in the theory that, hey, I don't need to trade every single day, the market's open, but it's not gonna give me the value that I need according to my account size, according to my experience. Let me just wait, right? Because again, at the end of the day, your job in the first two, three years as a brand new trader, number one, try to accumulate as much funds as possible. But number two, you're trying to collect as much information, as much screen time as possible. So the physical aspect of actually hitting a mouse, right? Clicking a mouse is a day-to-day activity that you wanna do, but you don't need to do. You wanna do, but you don't have to do. And the further you get into this business and you finally see how much screen time there is involved to really getting feel comfortable in your own skin, you're going to wake up one day and say, you know what? I'm okay, I'll wait, right? I don't need to short this stock at this price. I'll wait for the big macro breakdown. And that was kind of the theme going into Friday's session. You had the negative headlines. You had the fear factor potentially of, I don't even wanna use the word war, but at least conflict, right? Again, nobody wants conflict. These are lives at stake, as much as you could be short of stock and the headlines are helping you subconsciously, unless you're a crazy evil human being. You're not wishing death on anybody, so your position could work out. You gotta be completely out of your mind. But the point is there is a two-sided market. People do trade both sides of the market. And the most important part is if you are, if you do believe in technical analysis and you believe that you can, you know, prosper on both sides of the market, and with this type of environment, especially with these negative headlines, it'll definitely make your trade and you're short very exaggerated on the way down. So going, you know, if you look at the technical view, you got the cues, first close below this 352 area, again, if you believe in measure potential, you know, 338, and again, who the hell knows, again, what's gonna happen in the next 10 hours? But, you know, 338 is the next measure potential on the downside. You know, if the market continues to sell, you got this lower Bollinger band going all the way down here. If you look at the semiconductors, for example, again, first close below this linear regression line, you have room all the way down to 253.70s. And the one thing that we've definitely figured out, which group, you know, it leads, the semiconductors lead on the way up, and the semiconductors lead on the way down. If you saw the selling, the aggressive selling in names on Friday, you know, like in AMD, and this is after it took out earnings highs, after NVIDIA, look at the move down on NVIDIA, after breaking above its February 2nd highs, you know, these are really exaggerated moves back to the downside. And one candle here engulfed one, two, three, four, five, six, seven, eight, nine days of buying. So pretty aggressive statement made by the bears. The SPY, again, the first close below this whole range here. But the spies confirm you have room all the way down to 429. So there's definitely a lot of value to the downside going into Monday's session. Depending where the futures are, I'd like to see how the opening ranges play out. But as we've seen, if you do your homework and you go through charts this week and there's a lot of charts that are potentially breaking down that you can take advantage of. So let's talk about the pivots from Friday. Very, very aggressive way to end the day, to end the week. DDOG was actually a pretty good spike at the open. 178 is a sneaky area. If it builds can spike. Again, the morning set up pretty well. You had some moves to the upside. You'll see in a second with DDOG and Square, but everything else, once the ranges started breaking down, it was pretty aggressive to the downside. So here are the pivots on Friday. DDOG 178 sneaky area if it builds can spike. Here's the 60 minute view. And I mean, when I mean sneaky area, it's on the 60 minute view. So here's the 178 area, right? Here, let me show you guys. This whole channel here. You see this top of the candle here? It was 177.50, 177.70. So once it took out this 178 sneaky pivot trader right into supply here of 181.5. Good job for all you guys. It took it and obviously everything got destroyed after. Tesla, okay? And this is where they got really, really good. Tesla 8.94 held twice. If it builds below can see 8.87. It was a typo, it was actually 8.80. We'll get to that in a second. The macro channel I'll put in later. It was actually 8.80. And doesn't matter, everything broke down. We'll get to that in a second. Google got destroyed 27.58 if it builds below can flush. Here was Google, right? Here was Google here got absolutely destroyed. So here was the 27. Here's the 27.57 was the previous channel's low. It took it out when all the way down to 26.68. But you got a hundred point move on Google. Huge move, guys. On Google, you had PayPal 118 held twice if it builds below can flush. Here was PayPal, right? Here was PayPal. Took out the 118, this whole channel. Close pretty much at the lows at 115. That got smacked up a lot. Verisign never confirmed. Square had a nice pop, got upgraded. I didn't take any square. I was kind of just waiting for the market to play out. Square had a nice pop at the open. They got upgraded. 113 needs to build. Here was Square. Look at the 60 minute view on Square, right? Here's a 60 minute view on Square. So this whole channel here was 11280s, right? See this whole supply? 11280s, it took out that 113 started building. Went almost to 119. Really, really big move on Square. And then here we go all the way to the downside. ISRG never obviously confirmed. Square take on the way up. DDOG 181 on deck. Square 117 on deck. There's some pretty big moves off these channels. So here's where it started, right? Here was definitely the trade of the day. I mean, just a phenomenal, phenomenal move. I mean, I love Tesla as much as I love a good bull market and trading in both ways. It doesn't make a difference. 880 is massive, huge support held twice. And I said this again, especially for the option trades, you don't need to rush into a position. When you have a macro setup, you have a lot of room down. In this case, you have room down to 825, 790. That's how much room you have. So you don't need to panic into this position. And Tesla took out the 880 and just got destroyed. I mean, just absolutely destroyed. Here was the 880, the bottom channel here that it held twice back on February the third and February the fourth. It went through it, never looked back when all the way down to 850. If this thing confirms on Monday, you have room to 820. That's the next arising support. And then 792, which is the January 28th low. So a phenomenal move, absolutely phenomenal move. Netflix, 393 daily support for builds below can flush. Here was Netflix, right? Here is Netflix, not a huge move. But again, the stock has already down so much. But so here is the whole 393 went down to like 787 bounced up a little bit. But you know, a nice little move there as well. And let's hear new lows. Yeah, I mean, Tesla was great take on the way down, PayPal getting hit. Yeah, I mean, beautiful moves. I mean, beautiful, beautiful moves. You know, we were prepared for them, that's the key. I think the key is in this type of environment, which is absolutely crazy. Again, it's very, very rare. It's very, very rare that you see back-to-back attempts at the 200 day moving average to get reclaimed and get stuffed. I think that's as obviously as rare as having 60 degree weather one day and waking up with a couple of inches of snow. So we're in a crazy market, right? And this is kind of what we talk about. Very aggressive bull market tendency spikes. But at the end of the day, the majority of price action, especially for the last month, month and a half has been below the 200 day moving average. And as much as you love, we love. I think all of us love a good spike and a good, very aggressive obsession as the old adage goes. It's staircase up and the elevator down. And obviously, headlines are going to make a very, very big dent in what's going on on the macro service. So guys have a wonderful, wonderful, safe and enjoyable Super Bowl. I have no dog in the fight. I love the underdog story. If you guys know, I'm a jet fan. Yeah, I'm the one. I'm a jet fan dying dead inside jet fans. So I'm rooting for the Bengals just because I know we're like a step away. Well, not really where they are. I'm rooting for the Bengals. I'm rooting for Joey, right? I'm rooting for Joey, right? The whole, the whole group, but Aaron Donald. He kind of deserves a ring, man. OBJ and all the rest of the guys. So it's going to be a good game. My heart says I like the Bengals. My heart, my head says I kind of like the Rams. I'm not a betting man anyway. I'm just going to enjoy the game, have some sushi, some Diet Coke, going crazy, let my hair down. Guys have a great game. Enjoy the game. Enjoy your life. Be happy, smile and God bless. I'll see you all in the field tomorrow.