 Yeah, welcome back to Think Check. Welcome back to America finding its way. I'm Jay Fiedel, and we have Tim Epicella, Stephanie Dalton, Winston Wells joining us today. Hi, guys. Good morning. We're going to talk about the new world order under Joe Biden and Anthony Blinken. This is very important because America is in a different position than it was before we entered the Trump administration, and may have been in a different position than we've been for a long time. So let me ask you, Tim, how have we been doing under Blinken and Biden? They've taken steps. They've put sanctions on Russia. They've taken steps with China. It's certainly different, more thoughtful than what was going on with Trump. But how have they been doing? Well, with all the competing, good morning, Jay, with all the competing priorities, it's got to be a challenge for President Biden and Anthony Blinken. I believe that they're doing quite well. I think job one is try to reestablish credibility that America can be trusted again with its allies. I mean, that's job one. But then you have these emerging crises of China and Taiwan issue, and then certainly with Vladimir Putin putting troops at the border along the Crimea. So it's chaos as usual. But I think the establishment of priorities and keeping a steady hand on foreign policy, they're doing quite well after only 106 odd days, quite well. And I think our allies are back again. They've said, OK, we believe that Joe Biden is a stable, steady hand, and foreign policy for the United States will be, as it was with the Obama administration, and even with the George Bush administration. It was a steady, predictable policy plan that could be trusted. And I think Joe Biden, 106 days, and Anthony Blinken have done a marvelous job in that. By the way, you, Stephanie, are you worried that our allies were damaged and our alliances were damaged in the course of the Trump administration to the point where people don't trust us so well going forward? I think a lot of countries wonder about a democracy. They wonder about our change of government. Are we going to have this kind of experience in 2024, for example, and have the whole thing upside down again? Does this affect our ability to maintain relations? Well, I think that's a big question for us all. And that is, and a good question, and one we need to pay attention to. But I think that with the team of Biden and Tony Blinken, they have such a long working relationship. And Biden is a known quantity from all of his incredible work over the years on the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and doing all the things that he did for Obama. So I mean, I think they're familiar. I mean, they know these people for the most part. And they understand their basic philosophies and where they're coming from and what the policy is that they're preferring and hoping to implement. So I think that it restores some confidence in America's policymaking capacity and also ability to follow through with that, even though we have such a slim margin that we have two people who know a lot about what they're doing and lots of experience and knowledge of our past couple of decades in foreign policy. So I'm feeling that it's about the best team we could have now trotting around the world after what we've been through. Now, so that'll restore, I think, the goodwill and maybe positive belief in our system. And hopefully the rest of the stuff that's going on now is just going to be noise that will turn down. What about you, Winston? I mean, we know that damage was done under the course of the Trump administration in so many ways we can identify what that was. But can it be repaired in 100 days? Can we sing right back like a yo-yo? Oh, yeah, no. But I think there's a collective global sigh of relief when Biden actually got into office on the 20th, certainly not the two weeks before that. The world order was certainly shaken. And if they don't, didn't take a look and say, wow, if this can happen there, we really need to pull back and look at this and how reliable this is, partner. I think fundamentally at the end of the day, of course, the United States is the indispensable nation and the partnership that's been built over all these years. But when you had these four years of someone saying, I don't think so. You might be on your own. It depends how I feel today or tomorrow or this morning or after I get my quarter pounder with cheese. And that damage, it's like if you have a great relationship with your spouse and then you suddenly just start fighting for some reason and then their damage is injured, it doesn't mean that you're 30 years of marriage or 200 years of marriage or up to 10 years of marriage or down the toilet. But it makes some question like what's next? And it'll take some time for that to repair. However, America is not just its president. America is an entire set of institutions and norms and values that were tested, certainly. But we had the rest of the world bolstering us and saying, you're violating your own norms. We don't like it. And you're making us wonder if we can trust you again. That might have been part of the calculus as to, I think, normal Americans wanting to reengage with the world and making sure that we are engaged with the world. And you look at the Japanese Prime Minister was the first visitor to come here of a foreign leader. Joe Biden's first call was to Canada. I think these were nations that every nation, every ally didn't know what was coming out of the administration these last four years. So now, just like us, they have predictability. They have sanity. They have stability. This administration has made all the right moves in rejoining the Paris Accord Treaty on climate change, the, you know, recommitting itself to NATO. Anthony Blinken going to the Ukraine telling China, watch it at Russia as well. So he is, you know, they've got a lot of damage. The State Department was completely hollowed out of so many senior executives. He has to rebuild that from an internal perspective. So it is no shortage of work that they have in front of them, but less like every other department, sector area of our government, you know, I think that he's got a good secretary of state, well-versed in foreign policy, great background, and long-time competent of Joe Biden. So I think he's pretty in touch with what he wants and what we need as a nation. You know, in order to do foreign policy, you have to have a certain amount of internal tensile strength, you know? You have to have a government that works. You have to have people that support your moves. And right now, you know, we have really repaired ourselves from the insurrection. We have a good part of the country doesn't support this president. I mean, Biden, our president. And, you know, furthermore, we have a Senate that's, you know, disaffected and divided. And if ultimately the president wants to get a treaty passed, you know, he's going to need, what is it, two thirds of the Senate? It's a real problem to conduct foreign policy without having the support of the people or worse, more importantly, the Congress. I mean, the whole Congress. Doesn't this stand in the way, Jim? Sure does. While you were asking this, where the warm-up for this question, I was thinking, you know, one of the goals for foreign policies is to communicate the values of the United States to all nations, to communicate that the United States is a strong democracy. And what a challenge that is now. I mean, after the January 6th insurrection, we either look like hypocrites or we look like all talking, your house is not in order, United States. And I can't blame our allies or the rest of the nations in the world going, what is going on in the United States? That's why I think it's even more critically important that we identify those responsible for the insurrection and prosecutions take place. It's not just a domestic issue, it's a foreign policy issue. And to convince the world that we are sincere and earnest in preservation of the democracy and we're willing to do something about it, not just have some lip service saying, oh, it was just an aberrant anomaly that all these people stormed the Capitol and tried to take it over to stop progress of what democracy is all about. No, the prosecutions must move forward and they must be enacted and they have to have complete follow through. And that includes Donald Trump. You know, Stephanie, you know, I often wonder whether people that live here in Hawaii or on the mainland care about, know about are informed in any way about foreign policy and whether they are isolationists. Trump was playing to a crowd that really were isolationists, being developed isolationist policies, didn't care. You know, America first and America only and we don't care what goes on elsewhere. And of course, Biden's changing that. But my concern is that do Americans care, really care? Forget about the government, the person in the street, do they care about foreign policy? Well, that brings up, that's a really good question. With all of the blood and treasure that we have left across the world over the last few decades, we are moving fast now coming out of Afghanistan. And that'll be the first time we haven't been spread out across the world in some combat situation. So you would think that America would be more aware of international issues and how it is we respond to them and what a difference they can make in everybody's life around the globe. But you're right that Trump has forced us back into being a nationalist in isolationists and thinking of us first. But I think that's such a good question, Jay. My goodness, I'm amazed because on the other hand too, I mean, Trump was looking to China and Korea and doing some work there of his type of work that he does. Whatever that may be. Maybe, but bringing up the awareness of these other players on the planet that we have to get along with. So I... Let me extend the question a little bit, Stephanie. You know, under Trump, thanks to Trump, we've had a really bad time. We and the world have had a really bad time with COVID. With people stayed inside. They stopped traveling. They stopped doing business internationally. They stopped handshaking, you know, both domestically and in foreign connections. So we paid less attention, whether we cared or not, we paid less attention to knitting up the relationships between us and our counterparts overseas in other countries. How has that affected this? Well, I think you're right that we are looking to our own issues and not being... Maybe people are questioning our response to India's situation and there was some controversy about, why are we sending them more masks and paraphernalia instead of sending them the vaccine? And then there were explanations for why that, it was a better choice to send them the pieces of things that they need to use and vaccines wouldn't solve their problem right away, but to solve the problem right away, they needed this other material. But not as much outpouring and sympathy, not as much responsiveness to what's going on in other places and how difficult it is for them. So I think, as you said, with Trump focusing on us in this America first notion, people are looking inward to their own self interests more. What is it that is gonna happen? Yeah, meanwhile, Winston, we saw that Russia took advantage of us under Trump. Have they stopped doing that? Has Joe Biden and Tony Blinken been able to get their attention? Are these sanctions sufficient? You know, it's a very difficult, if you saw 60 minutes where Tony Blinken appeared in what I thought was a brilliant interview on Sunday. It's a real problem to have a country like Russia, which on the one hand, you have to apply sanctions to stop them from doing things such as what they were doing under Trump or TRY. And on the other hand, you have to talk to them. You have to engage with them about nuclear proliferation and the like. This is very hard. And Tony Blinken made a great case for both sides of that. But can we get into a situation with the brilliance of Biden and Blinken where the Russians stop Vladimir Putin, stops doing these provocative and destructive things to us and his neighbors, and at the same time, enter into agreements for nuclear non-proliferation? I don't think it's either or, it's both then. I mean, that's the job of a diplomat, isn't it? And we've seen that the Biden administration is looking pretty hardly at these dictators and strong men that it cozied up to Donald Trump and his administration, and they're getting the cold shoulder. So these anti-democratic and authoritarian forces were emboldened over the last four years empowered by our example. And so we have that damage to reverse. But in the meantime, Russia is not, it is a great power. It's a world power. There's no doubt about it. But America, again, is the indispensable one. We have, I was looking online, Politico in 2015 said we had 800 military bases in 70 countries and territories abroad. Other countries have about 34 in basis combined. I don't know what's true. The nation says it's more, but suffice it to say, America's all over the world. And there's a reason for that. There's a reason why Europe is wealthy today, why Japan and Korea are wealthy today, Taiwan. These countries were helped and supported in their economic and political systems by America after the war. That is continuing to expand as much as we can. We really need to reinvest, like I mentioned a while ago, we need a Marshall Plan for Central and South America so that those economies don't need to be coming up to America and ameliorate that domestically. We need to do that in Africa. We need to do that everywhere that we can, but probably Biden's stepping back and realizing that there is somewhat of a bring the troops home, focus on America. He didn't talk anything about in his plan that he just released about aid for other countries in there. I didn't see one peep about that. So- It's really hard to do that when you're spending three, four trillion dollars or trying to, I mean, whether he gets to spend it or not is a question, but can you say five trillion or six trillion? A Marshall Plan would cost a lot of money in today's dollars, no? It costs, I mean, as a percentage of our GDP, it was a tiny bit of our GDP that allowed that to happen. But look at the fruit that it bear, all these years later. But I think, you know, Biden is, he's very, he's an astute politician and he, America's gonna keep being very engaged at the center of the world. He's getting us re-engaged where we belong and need to be. But beyond that, he's also sensing like Americans, they don't really wanna talk about it. They're sick of hearing about the wall, whatever it is. They don't really wanna hear about Russia and Ukraine anymore. They had enough of that. So he's got a balancing out- While Russia is supplying Europe with- We're still paying a price for Trump. Absolutely, and we will forever, but- So, you know, people are, people are, I'm gonna move around the table a little bit. Absolutely. People are, you know, very concerned about them, you know, whether the government can handle it. And when you think of China, Tim, you think of a government that, you know, that's, they're oppressive. They don't have the same values on human rights for sure. They're very interested in developing as a world power. They wanna eclipse the United States, very clear. And you know what? It's fairly likely they will, because they have a different form of government which enables them, it enables them. We are not able, we can't get Congress to do anything. But, and that's gonna pay a greater and greater price going forward. But we have a question along this very line from a viewer, and I wanna pose it to you. The question is, do you think we make a difference if we change from a two-party system in this country to make it easier for there to be, say, a libertarian or independent party also? I guess the question is, you know, about parties and Congress, but it's also a question about whether we need to reform our essential governmental system to be able to get things done. What do you think, Tim? Well, you know, it seems to me every time I vote either be it the primary elections or the general election, my ballot has Republican, Democrat, libertarian, Green Party, Communist Party, the party of what's happening now, you know, they're all on the ballot. So it's not a matter of allowing them to be a party, a contender for an election, they're already there. The question is, why are they not popular and they're not gaining any steam? Again, I think our democracy is a competition for ideas and policies for the betterment of the country and the betterment of the United States. And if your ideas and your policies aren't winning the day, then you'll remain on the ballot, but you won't get any votes and your candidates will go nowhere. Similar to the GOP right now happening is they're not competing for ideas. They're not competing for policies that advance the constituents of each person's district or in the States or as a country as a whole. So right now the only really competent competitor of ideas and policies is the Democrat Party and that's a shame. Joe Biden said, we need a healthy two-party system minimally and I couldn't agree with Joe Biden more. And I'd like to see the Liz Cheneys, although I don't agree with her policies, I don't agree with her philosophies on most things. I have to admire her that she's standing up for our democracy and she's calling out the very boorish bad behavior of Donald Trump in his attempt to turn our democracy into an autocracy. Well, what we've had is really terrible foreign policy over the past four years, if not longer actually. We have a public, it doesn't care too much about it. It's not promising. And we have the possibility that we can fall out of our leadership position in the world order. I myself, I believe that we have fallen out and we're in decline. Despite the heroic efforts of a few people like Biden and Lincoln. But I wanna ask you how this changes, but the sort of the landscape we've been talking about, Stephanie, how this changes if the Republicans win in 2022 or 2024, if they take the Congress, if they take the presidency in those two years, what kind of foreign policy are we gonna get that? Well, the emperor with no clothes will make that policy, but I think that Tim has brought up some really important points here and that I'm answering that question or hearing that question in terms of these two parties and the circumstances of them now, which are deplorable. And going back to the 2020 election, we had three viable parties. We had three sets of candidates. The fabulous two candidates, were they independent, libertarians or independents, those two governors, two Republican governors were running for president and vice-pres, and one had been a very successful governor of Massachusetts and the other had been successful governor for New Mexico. Both resolved tremendous issues challenging them and they left the states with a fiscal balance. They balanced their budgets. They were incredible candidates, but you brought the points up, Tim, about nobody pays any, they're not getting any push. Nobody's funding them and bringing them to the floor. Why are we stuck in this dichotomy? Well, you think it'd be the press? You think the press isn't giving them a fair shake? And for that matter, do you think the press is not giving us enough information about foreign policy issues? So as to let the public fail to understand. And the donors too. But the thing is that the president can do what he wants on foreign policy. That's another astounding feature of our government is that Trump came right out and went right into foreign policy, having never done a thing on that in his life. And all of a sudden he's able to go over in consort with these powerful people on the planet with us trying to figure things out together and with him not bringing much of the table at all. So you're bringing up some really important discrepancies. There's more to come on this. Let me go around the table one more time because we have to close in a few minutes. Winston drilling down just for a moment, there is a difference of course between policy with our two basic contenders, our two main contenders. And that of course would be Russia and China. Now you know that President Biden has put sanctions on Russia and he has entered into a new kind of relationship. Is that adequate or should we increase the sanctions? I know these are fine points of course and we have to take a nuanced approach with both those countries. But what would you recommend to him on Russia? Well, there's a new sheriff in town. There's no doubt about that. And he's just taking a hard look at this. I mean, these were the ones were behind I think the whole Ukraine thing. And they're amassing their troops now not pulling them back. They're gonna continue with their shenanigans as they will, but I think, yeah. Which one do you see as a greater threat to the United States? Russia or China? I think our internal process is the greater threat to the United States. And that's getting our own out together honestly. You heard it here on ThinkTek Hawaii. They're just hearing our, seeing our confusion internally. And these are both great countries, large countries with traditional spheres of influence and they're not going anywhere. We've all got to learn to get along and we can. It's about, you know, having us respecting ourselves and then respecting each other. But when you have a thug running a country, it's, you're not gonna get a lot of respect out of that. So you've got to contain him, you know. The problem, the problem, Tim, is that you've got to do it in such a way so that you're strong, but you don't get into a war. This is, as Winston was saying last time around, this is a very difficult way, a difficult problem to solve. Now, what about China? China is going to be stronger. It is stronger than we are. It's Navy is already bigger. They're taking all kinds of opportunities and advantages in the South China Sea and elsewhere, they're building the Belt Road Initiative across the world. I mean, this is pretty serious stuff and they are threatened. They have said they want to eclipse us. They are actually doing it. What should be our attitude about them in terms of foreign policy? Take one minute. Okay, very quickly. Remember, it's, you know, you have a toolbox. As a foreign policy, as a diplomat, you have a toolbox and that includes a whole host of things either on the diplomacy, you know, back and forth talking and you have trade sanctions, you have individual sanctions and that's what we're doing with Russia. We're sanctioning individuals of the Russia regime, if you will. You have also monetary structure that you can manipulate. You have economic aids that you can retract or add. You have collective security. You also have then, as a final choice, some kind of deterrence on a military basis. And right now with China, you're gonna have to use a whole toolbox of strategies and one is, I hate to say it, is you're gonna get the US fleet out there by Taiwan and form a border so that China doesn't think twice or three times about doing something in Taiwan. So you have to be on your guard and I think we are on our guard and but you have to, you can't just rely on what Donald Trump like to do, I think is the simplest, simple thing and that is disengage versus engage. Right, Stephanie, you know, Winston made an interesting point that, you know, in many ways, our domestic situation is more important and our domestic situation feeds into our reputation, our position in the world. What we do at home affects our influence elsewhere and the way people see us elsewhere. But what is more important to you these days? Is it our domestic issues or is it our foreign policy issues? Well, if I just wanna go for foreign policy because by working at that higher level, bringing up, you know, more global focus to bear on our problem solving and negotiating with others and learning from other countries about how to resolve some of these issues we're all dealing with. I'm sure, you know, there's nothing really unique about what America's going through. All these other people have gone through it 400 times. We're just tasting it, you know, heavily for the first. But I think that that would be important because we have an economy that's similar to China. I mean, China's catching up with us. So we've got two huge economies here that are competing with one another and Russia doesn't, they don't have it, okay? So they may be able to get their mayday parades out there with their big missiles, but they couldn't manufacture those things in the numbers that they would need to take on anybody. So we gotta make sure that these relationships keep us, you know, independent or on good stead with the other big economy. I think one thing is clear that America finding its way includes things other than looking at our shoelaces. It means that we have to raise our eyes, raise our horizons. We have to see our position in the world and that actually will affect everyone, including the problems overseas and the problems locally, I believe. Anyway, I wish there was more time, you guys. Thank you very much for joining us today. Tim Apachele, Stephanie Dalton, Winston Welsh. Aloha, see you next time, aloha. Aloha.