 Hello everybody from my site, good day, good morning and good afternoon. My name is Favien Burkhardt and I'll show you today an overview of the electricity and heat module. Let's go into the presentation, the outline. As I have pointed out, it's electricity and heat. We'll talk about the recent trends in electricity, followed by some key concepts in relation to electricity statistics. And of course, if there are any questions, we'll also have some time in the end for some questions. So let's start with some key electricity trends. Here in this graph, you can see the evolution of the world electricity production between 1974, when the eye was founded and now 2021. Over this period, the world electricity production increased year up and year, with the exception of 2009, following the onset of the economic crisis and 2020, lately, at the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic. Overall, this resulted in a more than fourfold increase in electricity production from roughly 6300 TWh in 74 to about more than 28000 TWh in 2021. To make it a bit more interactive, we also have a quiz for you, where you can go to Menti, I will quickly switch to Menti, where you can share your opinion about it. What is the main fuel used for electricity generation in the world in 2021? In order to answer that, please go to Menti.com and use the code as pointed out above 69927949. So the answers are either natural gas, oil, solar and wind, coal, hydro or biofuels. I can see the race here, not really a race, coal is clearly winning with about 20 votes. I can see some votes for natural gas and hydro, all important energy carriers. Okay, I can see that coal has now received about 21 answers, which is also correct. So coal is the main fuel used for electricity generation in the world in 2021. And now let's deep dive into it into the historical evolution. Over the period from 74 to 2021, the mix of fuels used to generate the electricity changed. For instance, if we look at the share of electricity production from oil, shaded in dark blue. Second from the bottom, you will see that oil has fallen from about 25% of production in 1974 to less than 3% in 2021. Similarly, the share of hydro has fallen from about 23% to 70% as many of the suitable large scale sites have already been damped. By contrast, the share of production from natural gas shaded in light blue has increased significantly, rising from about 12% to almost 24% of the generation. There's also been a noticeable increase in production from nuclear power, shaded in yellow. With a share rising from about 4% in 1974 to roughly 13% in 2010. However, each share has declined slightly in particular following the accident at the Fukushima nuclear plant in 2011. During this time, you will notice that coal still remains the main fuel used for power generation with a share changing little between 74 and 2021. One of the main reasons for coal enduring popularity is it's still cost advantage over other fuels, at least in part. However, on the emissions sites front, there is some good news. If you look at the share of electricity output from solar and wind, shaded in yellow and light green. Second from the top of the graph, you will see that although output from these renewable sources is still small, the share has been steadily increasing in recent years. And also production costs have fallen and countries have begun to adopt more environmentally friendly policies. To sum it up, compared to 1974, the electricity mix has a lower share of oil and hydro and a higher share of natural gas, nuclear, solar and wind. Now, let's have a closer look at this graph at the electricity generation of 2021. As mentioned, coal remains the dominant fuel, providing approximately 35% of the electricity generation. Followed by natural gas, which provides just under a quarter of the total output. Then in total, almost two thirds of all the electricity generation comes from combustible fuels, so coal, oil, gas, biofuels and waste. With the remaining one third produced by non-emitting sources such as nuclear, hydro, solar, wind, geothermal. As mentioned, the share of output from solar and wind is still relatively small and has been growing steadily over recent years. Let's look at the world electricity production by region. Here you can see a graph of electricity production for the OECD and non-OECD countries. As you can see, electricity production in the OECD countries for the OECD and non-OECD countries for the OECD countries for the OECD and non-OECD countries. This graph is only 59% compared with 28 in 1974. However, with all the non-OECD countries This graph is only 59% compared with 28 in 1974. However, with all the non-OECD countries This graph is only 59% compared with 28 in 1974. Now let's look at the electricity consumption by sector. Firstly, you will notice that consumption has increased fourfold between 1974 and 2021 growing from around 5000 terawatt hours to almost 23000 terawatt hours. If you remember a few slides back, we have seen that production has also increased fourfold so it makes sense that consumption would increase by a similar amount. However, the numbers are different. If you remember from the production graph, production in 2021 was about 27 terawatt hours while final consumption is only around 23000 terawatt hours. Well, how do we come up with these small deficits with the small gap transmission distribution losses, of course, and there's also energy industry on use. Looking at the consumption by sector globally, industry is the largest consuming sector. However, a share of consumption has declined over time as restructuring and the improvements in energy efficiency in particular in OECD countries has seen electricity demand in industry rise at a lower rate than in other sectors. However, this graph is for the world and as you will see on the next slide consumption patterns in OECD and non-OECD differ. So if we compare the sectoral consumption in the OECD on the left with non-OECD countries on the right, we can see that there are some differences. In the OECD, three sectors, the industry, the residential and commercial public service each consume roughly about a third, about 32 of the electricity demand. By contrast, in the non-OECD countries as a whole, industry represents almost half of total electricity demand. There are many reasons for these differences, the structure of the respective economies, income levels and so on and so forth. However, you have to say that you are ready to go. We are in the change of time. Similarly, we can apply a structure for heat. Also heat can be produced as primary and secondary energy also by capturing from lower temperatures such as heat pumps. So let's look at the producers. Electricity and heat producers can be divided into two very broad categories, main activity producers and auto producers. Main activity producers generate electricity and heat for third parties as their primary activity. The purpose of the facility is to generate electricity or heat. For instance, secondary activity in support of their primary activity. For instance, large chemical manufacturing facilities may have an on-site power plant to generate electricity and heat for use in the production process. Some of this electricity and heat may also produce chemicals and not to produce electricity. Therefore, we classify that. It is important to note that the distinction between the two producer types are not based on whether they are public or private companies, but on their primary activity. So main activity producers and auto producers can be public. Now, coming to the plant types, electricity and heat producers can be further distinguished by the type of plant that is operating. There are now three categories, electricity-only plants, which as name suggests only produce electricity. Heat-only plants, which again as the name suggests only produce heat. And then we have the combined heat and power plants, CHP plants, which generate both electricity and heat in a combined process. This may also be known as talk generation. Okay, and now we have understood these concepts. Let's look at the reporting conventions. For main activity producers, the reporting conventions are quite simple. All production of electricity and heat is reported. However, for auto producers, there are some specific conventions for heat. This is because auto producers are also industrial consumers that use fuel to power the processes. Okay, let's look into electricity. All electricity produced is reported in the electricity and heat questionnaire. However, only the amounts of heat sold are reported. Amounts of heat generated for own use on the site are not reported. Similarly, when reporting the associated fuel inputs to electricity and heat production, for heat-only, the amounts of fuel input associated with the heat sold are reported. In the new questionnaire, there's also a new section for the auto consumpteat. I'll not dive any deeper into that, but the auto consumpteat is the amount of unsold heat generated and consumed on site by auto producers who report sold heat. And for that, we have a new section for that. Let's look at another important concept talking about electricity, the distinction between cross and net production. Cross production refers to the total output of electricity or heat generated in a facility before any is used. However, not all of this is used for productive purposes beyond the power plant. Some of the electricity and heat generated is used on site at the power plant for lighting, heating and to support plant operations. This refers to its own use. The remainder that is left over after subtracting the own use is the net production. However, remember that for all producers production only refers to heat sold. Okay, let's then look to the next concept, the convention of reporting of own use data. If you recall, for auto producers, we only report the amount of heat sold, not total heat production. Therefore, we can report the total amount of heat used for own use, as this would not align with the reported production figures, so we need to make an assumption. For main activity producers and for all production of electricity, the situation is simple. Net production is equal to cross production, minus own use, as we have just described on the previous slide. However, for all production of heat, we assume that cross production is equal to net production, and there is no one use. This is because for all production of heat, it is difficult to distinguish between heat that is used for own use and the heat that is used actually to support the plant operations. So to recap, for heat produced by all producers, there are slightly different reporting conventions. We only report heat sold, and we assume that cross equals net. For main producers and for all energy production, there are no exceptions, just for heat from all producers. Now that we have covered the tricky part of the presentation, let's move on to electricity and heat supply and chain, and to some of the data that we collect in our questionnaires. In terms of supply, we collect fuel inputs, cross production, own use, net production, and in addition to that, we also collect data on electricity used for pumped storage, hydroelectric boilers, and also heat pumps. And finally, on the supply side, we also collect data on trade. So with this data, you have the supply side of the electricity balance. Now, in between supply and consumption, the electricity terminals are long-cabled or loss-secure. These data are also collected in a questionnaire, and finally, there are also end-users that we collect data on consumption across the various consuming sectors, industry, transport, residential. So in theory, the difference between supply and final consumption should be just losses, but in reality, there might also be some statistical differences. Finally, we also collect data and that should, well, refer to as peak load and capacity data, which can be useful for other analysts. In our last slide, we have seen that losses are the main differences between supply and consumption figures. So just to give you a bit more of a detail on the magnitude of losses that can be expected on why they occur. As electricity travels through the cables and transformers, energy is lost along the way. Much of this is in form of heat, as the electric current flowing through the cables raises its temperature. This energy is lost as it dissipates into the surroundings, reducing the amount of energy that reaches the final destination. In general, losses can be expected to be in a range of about 5-15%, and with losses on the lower end of a scale observed in more advanced, compact, well-maintained grids and higher losses observed in older and more disputed grids. Globally, transmission and distribution losses represent about 7% of the total cross-production and energy industry-owned users are further 9%. So in total, about 16% of the total cross-production, well, a very sizable amount, is lost or used outside of the final consuming sectors. Here on this slide, you can see the figures for 2021. As you can see, cross-production amounted to almost 28,000 terawatt hours, while final consumption to a bit more than 24,000 terawatt hours. Now let's look at the concept of generation efficiency. It is calculated as the total cross energy produced by a plant divided by the energy content of the fuel used to produce it. So energy out divided by energy in. According to the law of thermodynamics and dynamics, energy cannot be created or destroyed. Therefore, efficiency must be less than 100%. The expected efficiency will vary depending on the fuels and technology. For instance, combined cyclic-gas turbines would be expected to have a higher efficiency than some other coal power plants. Deficiency must be calculated using energy units and you must use the same units for the inputs and outputs. So looking at it here, we have 100 units as an input and we can see an output 20 units of electricity and 40 units of heat and there are 35 units of lost. So the efficiency is actually 20 plus 45 output divided by 100 input equals to 65%. Looking at the trade, unlike with other fuels, trade is a bit different. The electricity and heat reported on the basis of borders crossed and not a region and destination. So for example, if Portugal was to export electricity France to Spain, then as France and Portugal do not share a common border, they would not report trade with each other but with Spain. So Portugal would report exports to Spain, Spain would report imports from Portugal and exports to France and finally France would just report imports from Spain. So Portugal and France would not report trade with each other. This differs slightly to the conventions used for the other fuels. Finally, I want to talk to you about one more concept in electricity statistics that is the use that you should be aware of and that is the difference between energy and power. Simply put, power is the rate at which energy is used, so power is simply energy divided by time and power is measured in watts, energy is measured in joules, so one watt is equal to one joule per second. Well, obviously sometimes these numbers get quite confusing and after a while, so for convenience, we call, well, 3,000 joules a watt hour and this is the amount of energy that one watt of power would produce in one hour. This is an important distinction. What refers to power and what ours to energy? This concept is actually very useful if we are now diving into the next topic, which is capacities. Also, we have said that we have... If you can close in two minutes, then we pass to the Q&A, thanks. Let's cover the net maximum capacity in addition to production and consumption and trade data, the electricity questionnaires also captures data on power plant capacities and net maximum capacities. And the net maximum capacity is simply the maximum power output that a power plant can produce with all brands running at full power on 31st December of a reporting year. These are very useful data for analysts to have, however, they can also be useful for statisticians when checking data. As we can compare actual reported production values with the maximum potential of production values to check. Again, here should be less than 100%, except if there were plants closer near the end of the year, in which case the figures may be distorted. And there are different expected values depending on technology. For instance, nuclear power plants are expensive to build and therefore are to be run as much as possible, whereas intermittent technology solar PV is both weather and location dependent and will have a lower capacity factor. With this, I will close the presentation and we will take