 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Player props are slowly trickling in over at Fandall sportsbook Which means it is time to break down our favorite props across week number five with JJ Zachary So he is here to let you know where he has seen value for week number five over at Fandall This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sannis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by JJ Zachary's and check him out on Twitter at late round QB find his work at late round calm and the late round of fantasy Football podcast JJ. It is week number five. How you doing today? I am doing better than Broncos fans or Broncos betters Which means you're better than one half of this podcast I think you got a you got to take that mantle and cherish it because I I I lament every dollar I spent on that stupid team this year. Yeah. Yeah, they need to get that that red zone offense Being being like honestly might be the worst red zone off offense. I've ever seen in my life. It might be I think we were all KJ Hamler last night and Still today still today reveling in that so I feel pretty good about the way things are shaking up for this week We got the good vibes for you from the Cortland Sutton touchdown last week with any time touchdown there So it's not all bad on the Broncos. Yeah, at least you're profiting from that even if I'm not that's true That's true. Yeah, we'll break down Luckily a Broncos free weekend to slate it just a bit here to get you set for week number five But first a reminder that our other podcasts for this week already posted college football week six NFL week five betting preview Podcasts are up on the covering the spread podcast feed and on the Fandall YouTube page Go check those out there and make sure you are subscribed as well Twisted T and Fandall joined forces to bring you a one-of-a-kind contest series that gives you a chance to compete for your share of Thousands of dollars in psych credit introducing twisted T's college football picks a sports betting focused contest series That's entirely free to play the contest is simple Each college football game will be assigned money lines spread and total markets with assigned points each market All you have to do is make six selections based on those three markets and earn points for each correct selection You may that the end of the day your score ranks among the best in the contest You'll be eligible for your share of psych credit head to Fandall comm Slash twisted T picks and make your picks and reminder. Please drink responsibly Let's take into this week five slate and JJ I think one thing that stood out to me last week was that there were a number of running backs who Seemed to undergo at least to minor role changes whether it be, you know Just a slight tweak for a mile Sanders slight week for breeze Hall stuff like that letter for Nets Potentially getting a role decrease when you're trying to judge if those role changes are sticky. What do you value most? You're looking at Shares like to carry shares target shares coach speak What are you looking for that you care about most when judging how sticky that role is? Yeah, so look, I think a lot of people look at production as sort of like the end result for a lot of players Right like that's what we're betting on. That's what we're playing fantasy around is production But first and foremost a player needs to be on the field in order to see production, right? So there are two basic things that I'm looking at one is snap share to get a really really high level view And then you can break that down into things like third down usage Routes run, you know, basically how a team is deploying this running back Are they using him as just an early down back or are they using him as an every down back? And how do they use him, you know in that previous week things like rush share and target share? They're pretty good numbers to look at I tend to look at them and I cite them a lot But you want to make sure that these players are seeing work While also being on the field a lot, right? Right? The thing is though overall is that volume numbers are what mattered most, you know I think you could look at like Joe Mixon right now And sure Inefficiency might lead to some sort of like role change down the line Like if a player is really really bad over and over and over again Like Joe Mixon right now has a 2.7 yards per carry But what are the odds that Joe Mixon is not going to? You know be the lead back for Cincinnati moving forward given what's behind him There's nothing wrong with some odd JP right in Chris Evans. It's just that you know Joe Mixon is Joe Mixon We've seen him be a very good running back in the past and if you look at Joe Mixon's peripherals his snap share You know his routes running even this year, which is great to see he's seeing amazing usage overall It's just that his production isn't necessarily matching because of that inefficiency So you know the bottom line is you want guys to be on the football field first and foremost You want to look at snap share and if the snap share is going in the wrong direction, you know regardless of game script That's a good sign But then give give game give that some game script context and make sure that you know these these running backs Maybe you know last week for instance, we saw Travis ETN play more snaps than James Robinson But James Robinson is the early down back on that team Travis ETN the pass catcher the third down back and so if Jacksonville is trailing it makes sense that Travis ETN would be On the field a little bit more so definitely look at snap share Definitely look at routes run, but you have to give that stuff context for really every single player that you're analyzing And it's important to to carry that context with you as we go along So you're not looking for trends that aren't there Kind of keeping note of oh this guy's snap rate is on the rise You want to keep mind what led to that snap share each time so you're not overreacting to a trend that does not exist I think that's the thing I see a lot is people Conjuring trends when it could just be variants or could be related to something that happened during that game Yeah, another thing that was key last week was Detroit because they had so many guys out They had a modern or St. Brown DJ chart got ruled out basically everyone was gone DeAndre Swift a lot of concentrated usage result of that so How do you know how far to boost guys up when there are key pieces missing around them? Especially when it's like a cluster situation like Detroit Yeah, I mean I think that the number one thing to remember is that running backs are different than pass catchers So running backs are a coach's decision to put a running back on the field And there's usually only one of them on the field at once So what that means is that singular running back is gonna get a lot of the work Within that offense if he's on the field whereas a wide receiver or a tight end is earning their targets because they have to Get open in order to see that target. So with Detroit this past week, you know I would say that it's sort of like an educated guess like you're you're looking at You know how these pieces and what these wide receivers do within their particular offense It's like I'm in Ross named Brown's out. Okay. Who's gonna play the slot a little bit more or DJ sharks out Maybe that'll boost Josh Reynolds a little bit because he's gonna play in the perimeter And he'll be able to do some work there But you know, I think that you could even look back at Detroit last week and say, okay DJ Hawkinson, he's a good football player Which means that he can earn that target share with these other guys who are being sidelined, right? Like good football players can earn that target share when other guys are out It's it's more so the borderline guys who you can't just assume that they're gonna see a lot of work But you know with TJ Hawkinson last week No one expected the game that he had last week, of course You can't just project that but you can still be higher than the market on TJ Hawkinson When you look at the fact that these guys are sidelined, okay There's a chance for him to see a little bit higher of a target share and then on top of that Seattle entered the week with as one of the worst teams in Football against the tight end position to start the year. I mean even Kyle Pitts did well against Seattle gym Entering last week. So it's one of those situations with Hawkinson where you could foresee a better game happening You just can't necessarily foresee an outlier game happening I do think though that like that with past catchers in particular It's really really important to just understand their role a really good example that is in Tennessee right now Where train on Berks' sideline. He's got that turf toe that he's dealing with a lot of people might say Oh Kyle Phillips Kyle Phillips is next man up like he's gonna see a lot more work. Well, Kyle Phillips is a slot guy He's almost he's almost definitely just gonna play the slot Really the guy who gets boosted is Nick Westbrook a quinae because he's now gonna be the perimeter wide receiver and going to see a lot More snaps now that train on Berks is out So it's important to know sort of the roles that these guys are playing When these players are sidelined then it's also important to remember that Nick Westbrook a quinae is a backup You know borderline starter kind of wide receiver in the league We're not talking about an elite player stepping in when a When an elite player is out and he's paired with a very very good player like a T Higgins and Jamar Chase like pretend that Jamar Chase's sideline T Higgins has a chance to see an obscene target share in that case because he's very very good But you can't make those same assumptions when you're talking about a guy like Nick Westbrook a quinae So it's sort of just like putting these puzzle pieces together and understanding the roles of these different players And it is tough to judge talent and decide, you know Is this guy good enough to actually earn targets with less competition out there? That is a difficult thing for sure, but that is also a necessary component, you know Judging talent is still a piece in the process for sure one thing on this slate for week number five Is there a lot of big spreads bigger than we've seen throughout most of the year the bills of 14-point favorites We got Tampa Bay now a double digit favorite against the Falcons That can be a pretty big factor when you see big spreads like that Specifically with the underdog side of things does that put you on the team's passing game? Or do you worry that efficiency will be so bad thus leading to the big spread that the increased volume won't matter? Yeah, that's the thing. I mean it depends on the matchup But it really you know when the spread is let's say Large between two teams that have really good offenses and good quarterback play The team that's the underdog with a good with good quarterback play You can expect probably a decent boost in just overall your maybe not touchdowns per se But in just overall yardage past attempts all that kind of stuff The one thing that you noted it's very very important Remember that it takes a garbage performance to get into garbage time, right? So if things go the way that we think it'll go between Tampa Bay and Atlanta this week Let's say Tampa Bay is up 20 Entering the fourth quarter, you know, will Marcus Mariota see more past attempts in that game? Yeah, probably but is he gonna be very efficient on those passes probably not because his teams down 20 points entering the fourth Quarter usually when that's the case the quarterback had something to do with that So it really just depends on the matchup I lean more hit betting overs with You know decent enough quarterbacks like even you know You can even make the argument maybe for like a Derek Carr against Kansas City this week where they're decent enough underdogs But he's a decent enough quarterback with good weapons and all that whereas with Marcus Mariota Now Kyle pits is out this week And he's not really shown us that he is a stud quarterback or has has proven to us that he can sustain Great numbers through the air. So in those kinds of cases, I'm a little bit more hesitant It's also tough too for like a Drake London kind of guy where he is a long-term piece of the Falcons Do they want to risk him in a game where they're down 20 per your example? That's something that I worry about too is mailing it in not pushing things knowing they're out of reach That's the other concern that I have with games in situations like that So each week here on the show will go through situations You are taking a look at that may be ambiguous Maybe undergo some changes where you're trying to attack in terms of betting some props Which one stand out to you in that regard for this week? Yeah, I got three of them One of them is Damian Pierce Last week was the first week that we saw Pierce run more routes than Rex Burkhead this year Burkhead was by far You know the guy who was playing third downs and hurry up and in that pass-catching role But we saw Damian Pierce play that a little bit this past week And if that continues then all of a sudden you should feel a lot more confident in him with your props Just because you know when you're not game script dependent It's a lot easier to bet these guys as we've talked about before in the show So Damian Pierce is one the Eagles offense is one and I say that because they've only thrown four touchdowns this year But they have ten touchdowns on the ground So that's a pass-to-rush touchdown ratio of point four. So it's just passing touchdowns divided by rushing touchdowns Since 2011 the lowest pass-to-rush touchdown ratio has been point five nine in the NFL That's Buffalo. I think back in like 2016 with Rex Ryan So we should expect the Eagles to sort of regress a little bit see a little bit more passing Touchdowns versus rushing touchdowns that can definitely impact the way that you would bet those props and then the last one Josh Jacobs Man, I mean he went from the first two weeks of the season He had a sub 3% target share in that offense the last two weeks It's been 17% and you know, this isn't just like randomness. I mean, this is route participation going up 18% He's running a lot more routes in that offense. You know, I think this is just like a really good example You know of what we were talking about earlier where it's easy to look at his final stat line and say, yeah Josh Jacobs is producing a little bit better But it's more important to see whether or not that's sustainable or not and right now We don't know for sure if it's sustainable But what we do know is that he's trending in the right direction and this is not just some random variance That's affecting Josh Jacobs bottom line. He went from being an early down back in the last two weeks He's been a bell count. That's definitely something that's important. I think the important thing too. We're talking about context They could trail in this chiefs game But that Titans game week three where he had that first increase in his like snap rate and his his role That also was in a negative script They were trailing Tennessee pretty much that entire game trying to rally late and Jacobs was still getting a lot of snaps So I think that's pretty impactful. Also, you're talking about the 2016 bills. That was the Mike Gillisley year So why would you throw if you got Mike Gillisley as the most efficient running back on the planet? Why would you ever want to throw in that situation? Let's open up the board here JJ talk about some yardage props that you like for this week We're seeing value as of right now for week number five. Yeah, some weird ones this week First one is Nick Chubb. I like his over of seven and a half receiving yards over on Fandle He only has a six and a half percent target share on the year But the chargers are fifth and adjusted target share allowed so far this year to running backs Which means teams are thrown to their running backs at a much higher rate against LA than they are other teams Since week one Nick Chubb has run just one fewer route than Kareem Hunt has run and he's run only 12 fewer He ran 12 fewer rather in week one alone His third down rate over the last three weeks has gone up over five percentage points since we you know What we saw in week one this game's in Cleveland could be a little bit tighter You know, it's only a two point spread two and a half point spread right now You know, I think this line personally for Chubb instead of seven and a half should probably be closer to nine and a half Or ten especially because he's averaging a yards per reception rate this year over his career of eight So he could get this in one reception realistically, and that's the expectation if he catches one pass So I like Nick Chubb over seven and a half receiving yards. I'm gonna go to there's there's a bet for Alan Robinson Over on DK right now. I am of course going with the under for Alan. Okay, I was worried 39 and a half receiving yards. We always bet unders with Alan Robinson this season Realistically, I think a huge problem for Robinson. That's not getting enough love, you know Of course, he's not really playing like Alan Robinson, you know separation He's never been a huge separator, but it's definitely obvious right now that he's not separating in the same way But I think a big problem for him is the Rams offensive line You know, he is not the safety blanket for Matthew Stafford. That's been Cooper cup and Tyler Higby If you look at what Alan Robinson has done this year, he's had one good game this year. It's against Atlanta I say good. I mean it was like a you know 59 yard game or whatever in a touchdown Um, which is fine, but it was it was against Atlanta. They've had four games They played Buffalo, Arizona, Atlanta and San Francisco according to pro football reference San Francisco first in pressure rate Buffalo sixth in pressure rate Arizona 10th in pressure rate Where's Dallas? Atlanta 30th in pressure rate and guess what they get the Dallas Cowboys Best teams at getting to the quarterback So I just don't trust this Rams offensive line whatsoever To really, uh, you know be able to create plays down the field for Alan Robinson So i'm going under that 39 and a half yard mark and then the final one This is honestly sort of a similar to the nick chub one, uh, it's it's a j Dylan over 13 and a half receiving yards over on dk Again, it's very very similar to the chub bet Dylan has run just six fewer routes than erin jones over the the Packers past three games But jones right now has a line that's nine yards higher than air than a j Dylan's You know Dylan's hit this just in one game this year Which was weak one against minnesota when he had 46 yards receiving But the Packers are big favorites in this game Which I think favors a j Dylan to be on the field a little bit more as the 1b in that backfield And so if he's on the field more that means there's a chance that he could run more routes Even though they won't be dropping back to pass necessarily as much But look, I mean bottom line is a j Dylan has an 11 target share this season for the Packers That's not a bad target share at all for running back and in weeks one to four 86 running backs. This is this excludes the uh the awful thursday night game We just witnessed but from weeks one to four there have been 86 running backs to hit an 11 target share of those 86 67 we're able to hit the over with this bet So if a j Dylan maintains that target share this week, which I think is very possible Just because he could see the field a little bit more if this is a blowout Um, you know, if if that all goes to plan, uh, then all of a sudden, uh, you know a j Dylan could could get there I think you missed the biggest aspect though of a j Dylan in this game He played his high school at new london high school in connecticut and they're playing in london So it's like a homecoming narrative despite it not being actually in london So a j Dylan a lock to go over there the yardage prop at 13 and a half receiving yards right now What about touchdown props? What you see in four week number five there? Yeah, so I I'll start with the long shot that I have. Um, this isn't any time touchdown over on fandall Garrett wilson is currently plus 2 90 to score touchdown over on fandall He scored twice this year But last week was the first time that we saw him officially play ahead of quarry davis In the jet's offense, which is great to see he's third in the nfl right now in end zone targets per game He's top 10 in end zone target shares. So he's seeing looks, uh, you know at the goal or you know in the end zone I understand that that jo flacco was the quarterback for the majority of the season But um, you know when you when you combine those two facts, you know the fact that he's playing ahead of davis He was seeing these end zone looks You know, that's it's a it's a fairly good sign. I'm really just playing the odds here I mean plus 2 90 um are pretty good numbers for for for wilson To find the end zone just given how he's been utilized so far this year And then the other one, uh, is jacobi berset. I hate going overs so much But I like berset over one and a half passing touchdowns at plus 170 over on draft kings right now Um, again, this is mostly because of the juice. I think from a projection standpoint He's under the one and a half. Uh, but the browns are likely going to score more points Uh, the ground overall this season sure but so far to start the season They have four passing touchdowns and seven rushing touchdowns. So that pass to rush touchdown ratio Not very strong, uh, in favor of the pass that should regress favorably towards the pass Moving forward according to pff's expected touchdowns formula berset has four this year But he should have over six so there is some regression That's just kind of playing into what I just talked about with how the browns are scoring touchdowns The chargers are 20th and adjusted success rate allowed to quarterbacks this year Um, you know berset hasn't hit the over on this or sorry berset's only hit the over on this once this year But the chargers have actually allowed multiple touchdowns to every single quarterback They faced this season Derek Carr, Patrick Mahomes, Trevor Lawrence and even davis mills last week So, uh, I do think that this game is you know, somewhat attractive It's not like the worst game in the world. Um, and you know, if some of these touchdowns just Go a different way, uh, literally just one of them probably could because I think from a projection standpoint We're looking at a touchdown from jukobi berset. Then then you're gonna be in plus money here Yeah, going back to the wilson one. I actually like that game overall. You're talking about like in the chargers browns game I don't mind the jet's dolphins either it took a hit with with parry getting banged up Hopefully he's good to go on Sunday because I had the over in this game and I need him to play also the dolphins money line So Rest up buddy. Let's get back in there for sunday But I think that that game is actually kind of fun as well not just because the dolphin side but like The jets are kind of chaotic with zack wilson and chaos isn't always bad for an over and I think that wilson garret wilson could be a part of that too Yeah, there's definitely some weird Lines I found with any time touchdowns this week like another one that I almost mentioned I guess this is like a bonus, but it's not official Uh, you know, like cd lamb right now is plus 210 to score Um, and and realistically, you know, it's it's just weird because he's scored touchdowns on back to back games And so you would expect that number to be a little bit lower Especially when in previous weeks that number was lower and the rams have actually been pretty bad against wide receivers they've the highest uh Target share adjusted target share allowed to the position this year So like and I feel similar to garret wilson where you know, you would expect that number to just be a little bit lower Because of how he scored so and played so far this year But I do think that plus 290 is the right kind of juice for him there Yeah, so cd lamb another one to consider the official ones here for the show brissette over one and a half touchdowns plus 170 And garret wilson plus 290 for an anytime touchdown That is jj zacker recent check him out on twitter at late round qb and check out his work Over at late round dot com in the late round fantasy football podcast jj We appreciate you stopping by as always and we'll talk to you once again next week. Thanks jim Alrighty, thank you to jj and thank you to everyone for tuning in not just today But throughout this week. We appreciate all of you check out our week five betting preview and our college football week Six betting preview over on the covering the spread podcast feed. I am on twitter at jim sonnis You can also find the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast. Good luck to all of you in week five We'll talk to you once again on monday to talk about monday night football with ryan williams This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network