 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We don't have massive slates and either the NBA or the NHL for tonight But you combine them together you get one kind of decent slate So what that's we're gonna do here today is break down both the NBA and NHL having Austin Swamin to break down his thoughts on Player props traditional market bets and much more to get you ready across both sports for tonight This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm Joined here as mentioned by Austin Swain check him out on Twitter at a swing three you can find his work over at number fire Calm Austin happy Monday to you. How you doing today? I am doing great We got some coffee in on Monday morning, and I'm feeling good Yeah, I always feel bad because it is 7 30 your time when we're recording here It is 9 30 my time So I've been up for a while and you have to have to jump right out of bed at 7 30 to talk to us So let me extend my appreciation From the audience to you but also my congratulations on your fantasy sports red association award win last week for the best Football article people did not read it yet. What was that article on that you won the award for? So that particular article that I submitted I was Shocked and humbled by the way for it by the award by the great people at the fantasy sports writers association I actually wrote a Justin Jefferson last of fall potentially breaking the receiving yards record Obviously, he didn't end up doing that But just a general musing that I had right about Jefferson and the type of offense He had entering last season versus the new one that we saw him in obviously Plenty of balls for plenty of yards and several touchdowns in the fantasy landscape there So I think I was a little bit fortunate by the result but it was just kind of looking at their difference in projected pass rate and kind of just Evaluating what some of those milestones might mean in fantasy football. So I thought it was a cool little encompassing piece I was stunned as I said to end up winning the award given all the great work in the fantasy football community And yeah, all the great writers out there, but I appreciate you giving me those kinds words about that And it's been it's been a great week for sure kind of victimized by the luck The Vikings had because they've been in like a less important game Like if they didn't have to rest up for the playoffs, they might let them go for the record in the final week It didn't happen that way But you know in another another universe where the Vikings weren't 83 in one in one score games maybe would have gotten Justin Jefferson across that yardage or that yardage mark Well, congrats to you Austin pleasure to have you on here for today We'll get your thoughts on the NBA and NHL here in just one second Reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast big week ahead We have Brandon Gadoula back on the show tomorrow to talk about some golf We'll have Ed Feng back with us on Wednesday talking college basketball. It is also speed week We got formula one coming up from Bahrain. I'll be talking about that on Thursday We'll talk some NASCAR in Vegas with their trucks Xfinity and cup all there all that coming up this week on Covering the spread so make sure you're subscribed Wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Fandals America's number one sportsbook and the number one place to get your friends into the game That's why Fandals inviting or giving you and a friend the opportunity to earn $75 each all you need to do is invite your friends Using your exclusive referral link under the refer icon in the app as soon as your friend makes any bet of at least $10 on sportsbook you'll both get $50 in sportsbook bonus bets and as soon as they bet at least $10 on Fandals casino, you'll both get $25 in casino credit set over to you Fandals sportsbook and casino apps And invite your friends today and get your $75 in referral bonus must be 21 plus and present in Michigan, New Jersey Pennsylvania or West Virginia refer players must wager 10 plus dollars within 30 days Which are signing up limit five referrals during a 30-day period Sportsbook bonus bets and casino site credit are not with trouble and expire 14 days after a seat Restrictions apply see full terms at sportsbook.fandals.com gambling problem call 1802707117 for confidential help in Michigan 1800 gambler, New Jersey, Pennsylvania or visit 1800 gambler.net in West Virginia Let's start things off in the NBA here awesome We've got a couple of games post all-star break from both teams now and it is kind of an inflection point because teams Gearing up for the postseason. They've had time to rest up So when you're looking at the NBA at landscape the past couple of days, what's changed for you? Any surprises whether it be on the team level or player level thus far? So I don't think there's a larger story in basketball Maybe even sports right now than the new look Los Angeles Lakers. We have not seen Kevin Durant on the Suns yet Obviously, that's going to be a huge story with huge championship implications in the NBA The East clearly a three-team race and frankly yesterday's Lakers Mavericks game in the afternoon on Sunday Was the tiebreaker for who I was going to talk about here But the latest rallied from 27 points down They ended up coming from behind to beat Dallas and I think that's why Los Angeles is a little bit more of a serious contender because of their defense and when you look at this stretch Where they've had LeBron Anthony Davis and these all new pieces on the floor 104.2 defensive rating fourth best in the NBA plus 11.4 net rating also fourth best in the NBA And I think Russell Westbrook was a little maligned about you know being the problem with the Lakers really the problem Was how much they gave up to give him and how much they were paying him when you look at how now They've gotten some talent back in the stable. They got an elite shooter with Malik Beasley They got a one-to-five defender with Jared Vanderbilt and the Angelo Russell's even sprained his ankle And he's not even playing in the Lakers look like this So I think that's the biggest story in the league and the biggest trend that I'm following and watching is now the Lakers are coming from the 1213 seed whatever they are to potentially Working their way in through the play-in and then there is an earth shattering upset brewing here Whether it be the number two Grizzlies or the number one nuggets like this team with championship pedigree all of a sudden Has quality parts and pieces and that is something to me that could drastically change the title outlook in the NBA So what's their ceiling to you? Do you think they are like legit contenders because right now over at Fandle sportsbook their NBA finals odds 42 to 1? That could be ambitious. They're 42 to 1 for a reason, but what's their ceiling in your mind? So it you know I would it surprised me at all if LeBron Anthony Davis and these new pieces won the title No, because we've seen the championship pedigree less than three or four years ago Obviously the 42 to 1 odds I think are reflective of their path in that they would have to get through the play-in So that's one obstacle in order to get in the dance Then they'll have a tough matchup with either one or two seed as I project and then they'll have be at a home court Disadvantage moving forward if they somehow get through one of those tough teams So the hole might be too deep But to me the question is can the Lakers play spoiler can they knock some of these other teams out of the play-in? We talked last week about the Kings or potentially the Clippers in that it's kind of seven six seven eight range Or can they actually pull the grand upset of one of the two guys that have paced the Western Conference all year? So as a team, I don't know if the Lakers have Western Conference championship winning upside But they are a story that I'm watching as far as tracking some of the other contenders in that conference So the Lakers right now plus 146 to make the playoffs that counts after the play-in the play-in tournament Do you think that's a fair number is that one you're buying into based on their path there or is Even is that kind of your preferred market for betting and buying into this market or is a more single-gain stuff? You're looking into absolutely because I think plus 146 is more than a fair number because if you really break it down They say you're a full believer in the Warriors who are last year champions If you just give them a one of the other spots by de facto You're looking at the Lakers getting past the Utah Jazz the Oklahoma City Thunder The Portland Trailblazers in the Minnesota Timberwolves this new new look Lakers squad is Superior to them analytically and with the eye tests and all four of them So they do have ground to make up They would have to go through a one-game sample which is anybody's business You're gonna talk to Ed Fang on Wednesday about college basketball and one game samples in the tournament How wild that can be? But you I still think that is good value on the Lakers for a team that really by net rating One of the better teams in their conference since they got these new pieces and I'll keep watching to see how it unfolds That LeBron actually ended up spraining his ankle yesterday. So, you know, that's something to monitor Obviously his availability would would impact things that might be the reason by the way that number is so distanced Because we don't know about LeBron's ankle now moving forward after another Sprain, but I still feel very confident in this new look team and the pieces and I feel like they're much more So a contender than those other teams I mentioned in the play-in area Well, we'll connect LeBron with Patrick my home's his trainer to get that ankle cured up. Yes, right away Okay, let's talk about this four game slate in the NBA for tonight Austin Let's start things off with the more traditional market spreads money lines total stuff like that When you look at across these four games, where are you seeing value there at Vanduul Sportsbook? So the first thing that I saw that that provided immediate value was Pistons Hornets, which I'm sure is the marquee game everybody wanted to watch tonight But these two teams have played twice this year Detroit averaging 129 and a half points Charlotte averaging 123 points in their matchup And they are both I would say defensively challenged and the sample is fair there both games had the mellow ball did not have Kate Cunningham So it wasn't thrown off by injuries or anything like that Detroit has struggled on defense all year bottom three defensive rating for the whole season and eighth worst since January 1st And the thing about the Hornets that's kind of been surprising to me I I've been a seller of the Hornets for a while But they're actually mid-back in defensive rating or so since the beginning of the year the question is I mean, I mean the thing is that Charlotte plays so fast They are the top pace in the NBA by a mile since the calendar turned they play so fast So they are almost a shoe in for a 230 point total anytime we see them I Think that this total is being suppressed because these two teams met earlier this month They only scored 230 total points, but just 34.8 percent three-point shooting in that one for two of the worst three-point defenses in the league So I feel like the over is a good bet here despite the fact the Hornets missing PJ Washington I actually think he makes more of a difference for them on the defensive end versus the offensive end So I like the over in Hornets pistons tonight first and foremost. Yeah, that one's currently a 235 Over is minus 110 if Angela sportsbook spread is the Hornets minus six there 235 the number in that one anything else to see on the traditional market side Austin So I think the most intriguing game of these four is the the Celtics and nicks in New York And I actually like the Knicks plus two here and so does number fires model It actually thinks the Knicks are about 53 percent to win this game outright Even though the Celtics have the vaunted record They are one of the teams that are better than the Lakers in this recent stretch here because Boston has been one of the Title favorites all year But keep in mind no Jalen Brown here for the Celtics and it is a last game of a three-game trip for them The Knicks are playing unbelievable right now as I'm sure you've probably heard out there in those east coast markets Jim The Knicks are playing really well at the moment They are fourth in overall net rating This month, which is not too far behind Boston and I just wanted to give Julius Randall a shout We talked about Jalen Brunson on the show last week for most improved player award Averaging nearly 30 a game since the calendar turned Julius Randall's efficiency has been his problem the whole career right now. He is a 61.3 percent true shooting In February so like he's shooting and efficiency has been his bugaboo. He's been making a ton of shots So now the Knicks seem like an incredibly serious player out east in that weaker conference that they have Brunson They have Randall's Randall scoring at a high level I think with the healthier squad here at home getting points That's a spot that i'm looking to the Knicks tonight to prevail just as our model does believe it well So the spread is plus two. That's minus 110 at vandal sportsbook. The money line in the Knicks is plus 108 You mentioned that number of fire thinks the Knicks win this game 53. What about for you? Do you prefer to go with the spread plus two or the money line plus 108 implied odds? Plus 108 are 48 versus 52.4 percent at minus 110 preference for you between those two markets I I just I think I'll take the spread in this spot just because I we do get the key number of two When you look at as far as percentage or amount of value on both lines It's about the same because I mentioned it's about 53 percent for the Knicks to win versus 48 implied there About a 5 buffer on the spread as well I I think I'd rather take the spread just because you you do get that key number of two for for a late possession For a three free throw whatever it might be Um, there's really no difference in gap and value when you're looking at our stuff though Okay, so Knicks plus two is where Austin is going there the other one has mentioned before Pistons Hornets over 235. What about in the player prop perspective Austin? Anybody you're keying in on for tonight So I am going to turn to someone who uh, my buddy Tom Vecchio actually talked about on your show last week A lot different matchup. He was talking about joel mb against the memphis grizzlies I'm going to talk about joel mb against the miami heat. I love his under Points rebounds and assists. It's currently sitting at 47 and a half minus 113 on famous sportsbook Miami's arguably the toughest matchup in the league for a big Second fewest points allowed to centers fewest rebounds allowed Second fewest assists allowed to centers and we know bam out of bio is lurking there and joel did struggle with bam last year In the post season fewer than 20 points a game fewer than 10 boards a game Fewer than to assist a game and I know he was fighting injuries in that series So it's not apples to apples and regular season certainly doesn't have the same intensities But if you want an over on a points rebound assist combo bet you generally want some pace This is not that game. Philadelphia is 26th in overall pace. Miami's 28th in overall pace I think it beats been on a hot streak. That's why this number is so elevated. He's had memphis high pace houston poor defense Boston a little bit higher of a pace than this but we have him just projected for 43.3 points rebounds and assists at numbered fire Even I think that's a tad bit generous given the overall pace And the and the low total in this one Yeah, 47 and a half is a massive number on the dra for joel and beads So points rebounds plus assists for a bead 47 and a half awesome once the under At minus 113 on that one and I think the the thought process there Does make a lot of sense as far as taking the under on in bead. Okay Let's shift focus now and talk about the nhl nhl is a five game slate for tonight Once again awesome. Let's start things off with the more traditional markets looking at Money lines totals things like that. Where you seeing value on the nhl side of things for tonight So I have a couple of unders that I really like on this card The first one is again that probably the less marquee showdown I I don't know what it is about these bad games that attract me so much But detroit and the autos senators in Ottawa. I like the under six and a half here Was sitting at minus 112 at fando sports book When I last checked this total implies a bit of a shootout This is an above average total and I couldn't agree Disagree more here because these two teams have allowed the eighth and thirteenth fewest goal expected goals for 60 minutes Respectively since january 1st. So these are plus defenses when you look at the skaters and both projected starting goalies here Ville Huso and camp Talbot also top 40 and goals saved above expectation either of them are stellar But they're serviceable, you know, they they're not going to be a swiss cheese sitting in front of the crease letting Letting goals in left and right that otherwise aren't very quality attempts. They're they're passable So you look at number fires model It sees this game with less than seven goals 58.6 of the time the implied here about 52.7 percent So there is decent value on this game That is still at minus 112 on the under you mentioned six and a half under Minus 112 for the red wings and the senators right now at fando sports book You mentioned the other one is also a total. I believe what one was that one So i'm actually looking at the game of of the night and by the way the money line is trending here in a spot Where number fires model likes it as well The Bruins and Oilers under six and a half here was sitting minus 102 when I saw it on sports book But I imagine there'll be more money flowing in on this game to to move the line around The Bruins changing style to me is something that I've bet with success in recent days Boston is early in this year. They were a juggernaut complete defense top five offense They were looking excellent and now when you look in the stretch since the calendar turned Boston is scoring the eighth fewest goals in the NHL eight fewest expected goals I should say so they're not generating the same quality chances offensively and Edmonton might be the better team here Edmonton is a very scary team when you look at how they're performing analytically right now because they are allowing The second fewest expected goals for 60 minutes Scoring the fourth most expected goals for 60 minutes and I've heard goals are good and hockey So Edmonton doing very well here on both sides of the ice and you look at the goal tending in this game It's also excellent when you turn back to the under Linus Olmark probably going to win the vasinotrophy. He's second In goal saved above expectation this year and Stuart Skinner also top 15 in that mark So the under we have it about 56.5 to hit. It was sitting at minus 102. So around even money For the implied so we're showing value there. We're also showing on value on Edmonton's money line at plus 116 here likely for the same reasons that I talked about where Edmonton Their offense is performing a lot better than boston's recently there at home here equal rest for both teams So I our model slightly favors Edmonton and you can get them at plus 116 on famous workbook It sounds based on the way you were speaking though is if you prefer the under though, correct I just I was able to fully deep dive the under yesterday this line The money line actually moved in toward Edmonton spot where it was showing value was showing a smidge Yesterday yesterday evening But it is I it's kind of concerning to me that the line is moving toward boston because that's money moving that line And I'd want to see what's going on there So my official recommendation would be the under but I just thought I would mention if you're looking for Another better model does like the oilers money line too Yeah under six and a half minus one of six right now for the Bruins and the oilers the money line as mentioned for the Oilers is plus 116. So it could be a spot where you track This one as it goes along if it keeps on extending out Maybe you take Edmonton later on it's never fun to bet into a market that has moved the other way But sometimes it moves enough where that is a value as well as you alluded to now What do you think is the cause of the slipping for the Bruins because? Expected goals is something that's probably going to stabilize decently quickly Not the smallest sample anymore either. Do you think this is a rut? Do you think this is something else? What is your like read on why that's happening for them? So I I felt like brought boston was significantly over performing It can it can be just a it can be just like a a metric in a style So I expected goals are largely based on Corsi, which is the overall statistic of how many shot attempts are going on goal In which situations for the NHL Boston was significantly over performing early in the year So it's not surprising to me that they've hit a little bit of a rut a little bit of a dry spell Because they weren't going to score it a historic pace all season when you look at their overall season marks They're still like top eight in the league in the same category. That's the type of start They got off to really I think a lot of what it has to do with is some of the early high danger chances David post are not got he was flirting with a hat trick and multiple occasions to start the season And now boston's offense has just been very human been very normal and they're leaning into their strengths Which is their defense they've had In elite defense all year and if you have the guy that's in line to win the bezina You might slow down the pace a little bit Be more willing to play in your own end and be more accustomed to a style that'll work in the post season versus rushing forward and with multiple attackers Okay, so we are on the oilers Potentially the money line depending on where that goes, but specifically the under here six and a half at minus 106 Let's talk some player props now because we do have again five games in the NHL for tonight What do you see in the player prop side of things here? So I am incredibly underwhelming in this department compared to my buddy Tommy props who is a shot on goal Tommy props. Yeah, uh, but uh, you'll have to tell him I called him He'll appreciate that our friend are we LF steam gave him that nickname and coined it first. So I like it Okay, um, I'm going I'm going to go off the board with one of the games we haven't talked about yet I'm going to go cunuch stars and I'm looking at Joe Pavelski to score a goal in this game And I just look at a guy that's badly due for regression when it comes to shooting and obviously talented player He has 18 shots in February has not scored yet I think Dallas as a whole is due for a lot of regression offensively given that they're only scoring 2.38 goals per gate per 60 minutes 3.18 expected goals So they're supposed to be scoring more right now a lot more than they have They've been a little unlucky You could point to Pavelski for that given that he's had all of those shots and still hasn't found the back of the net this month I think the connexer an excellent candidate for that type of regression the implied total goal total sits here Around 4.35. This one's not supposed to be very competitive. That's kind of why we didn't talk about it um Collin delia the goaltender for the connex series actually the best they've had all season and he still sits at negative 2.55 Goals saved above expectations. So we've got holes in the in the crease and Pavelski do big time for regression Um, I think he's in line for one soon So i'm going to call my shot at plus 240 in this one Yeah, down to to the 235 so people are with you on this one. Awesome Sounds like uh, maybe not not the best number anymore But still uh, there's confidence in Joe Pavelski that is in the stars connex game Pavelski plus 235 as of right now To score a goal 235 is still okay. Do you correct? I assume? Yep. Okay, perfect Well, let's ride with Pavelski then and let's ride with austin swain across the nba and the nhl for tonight Austin I appreciate the time Good luck to you for tonight. I'm sure we'll talk to you again here very soon on covering the spread once again Sounds good. Jim. I'm looking forward to it. All right Make sure you check out awesome on twitter at a swain 3 you can find all of his writing work Over at number fire.com and on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed as well We'll talk to austin again a very near future to get his read on nba and nhl as well Before we close up for today that we got to go back to last week and talk about uh, the bets We talked about on the show here ray cap one down for pga Epl and nascar as well our guest on the pga side was ali mccann of fan dual tv You can find her on twitter at ali i mccann preview in the honda classic and ali had three top 20 bets that she liked Those three bets were robbie schelton at plus 260 denny mccarthy plus 160 johnny vegas plus 150 And both vegas and schelton one shot off. They both finished hide 4 21st in this one um We saw mccarthy miss the cut but uh schelton was plus 260 vegas plus 150 vegas shot a 64 on sunday And that was why he made that run He was in the wave that dealt with a lot of wind in the lake group on friday He missed the the wind on thursday too. So, you know, it goes both ways but If he just had a little bit better friday in that wind, maybe he would have had the top 20 but couldn't quite get there So close mrs. Frally on both schelton to vegas, but uh, definitely did least give it run and fun to track vegas on sunday As he was trying to run that one down our guest on the e pl side was austin cast find him on twitter at austin cast He had two bet city light one of those is man city He wanted to win uh with either the exact score three to three nil at plus 750 or two nil at plus 550 and man city Went nuts right away in this game. They're a three nil before halftime. They wound up winning four to one so just a little bit too uh too hot out the gate there for man city to win that one, uh, but You know the general sentiment of man city winning that game pretty comfortably was there unfortunately didn't get the bets Uh, but the the read on the overall game, correct Other one was for james madison of lester to be booked at four to one No cards overall for lester in this game. Uh, sound has missed. Uh, arsenal won that game one nil not quite as much of an offensive assault as projected there but uh four to one on that one couldn't quite get there either so Close on both those for austin, but not quite hitting for any of those But still austin a good follow on twitter again at austin cast find his epl work over at numberfire.com as well Happening him back on again friday talk more epl for this week Finally, I was talking some NASCAR last week in fontana. The outright was eric jones 28 to one I had toyota to win a two to one daniel swarez t10 at plus 270 and michael link dowell t10 at plus 650 The one that did hit here was swarez plus 270. I should have been more aggressive with him, honestly Because he had a really good car finished fourth and even that I think undersells him a bit because he had a Believe it was a pit road speeding penalty went to the back works his way back forward Uh, he wasn't as fast as cow bush wasn't as fast as teammate ross chastain, but he was really good So maybe should have been more aggressive with swarez. My model did show value in his outright market Luckily didn't bet that because that would have been a loss, but he was really good McDowell almost luck box his way into a top 10 He used some strategy to finish better than he should have his car was not fast But you know that's kind of how things can work at these spots as you can luck box your way into stuff If you're willing to be different and they were willing to be a friend just didn't quite hit there Toyota two to one probably the best shot was uh denny hamlin, but He I think realized he didn't know the best car So got a schedule strategy in the last run Didn't quite get there eric jones 28 to 1 didn't have the same speeds. I thought he would have Uh disappointing week there did work his way in the top 10 at one point, but uh, not super super fast there so this one's hit at 270 was nice, but um Kyle bush dominant for sure on the xfinity side We talked about the the uh, the collage cars I liked or showing value in austin dylan 17 to 1 daniel hamlin 28 and chandler smith at 75 to 1 And chandler smith gave it a run so did dylan to an extent He got some damage that kind of hurt his car quite a bit while not finishing seventh But chandler smith finished fourth So I had a top five bet on him and a group bet on him both those one of pitting the top five was plus 950 Which is good and kind of helped make up for a not super thrilling uh cup series race for me. So Chandler smith that paid off pretty well Was pretty happy about that and happy with why the model was into college I know that hemorrhage wasn't as fast, but smith being up there. I think is Predictable based on his talent I thought that he I think he's a pretty good race car driver with a decent enough team that underperformed relative to expectations last year But I think it's due for a bounce back this year And they'll have Kyle bush in their car at vegas this weekend So that's going to be a ride as well But uh the chandler smith top five bet did hit at 950 the group bet too But the outright here on the show 750 or 75 to 1 Did shorten to 50 to 1 so good closing line value there, but no win on that So we'll see a bounce back with las vegas this week But again as mentioned formula 1 in bot rain as well I'm going to talk about f1 and nascar on thursday's show if if fidel releases top 10 bets again on 3090s into last week I'll talk about t10 bets on the friday show as well so Potentially thursday and friday depending how things go down But we'll have some nascar and f1 coming up on thursday That's all that we have here for today on covering the spread tomorrow brandon gandula is back Talking about some pga walls talks and nba with brandon Get his read on both those to get you set for this week in the pga big Thank you once again to austin swain find him on twitter at a swain three find his work over at numberfire.com Congrats once again to austin on his award win this past week If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast I want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your nba and hl bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow talks and golf and some basketball This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network