 Hey everyone, this is Dan with another episode of my Moderna and BioNTech videos. Around the end of November, when the news broke out about the Omicron variant, the stock prices of Moderna and BioNTech shot up for a few days. Then it was reported that the symptoms of Omicron were not severe. Compared to the Delta variant, the stock prices then dropped. In the last 3-4 days, the prices are recovering again. Is it a good time to buy Moderna or BioNTech? What are the long-term prospects of these two companies? Let's look at the details. First of all, let's review the price forecast I mentioned in my last video, which was posted on November 26, 2021. At the time, I said Moderna would be at $370 a share and BioNTech at $400 a share by the end of February 2022. When I posted that video, Moderna was at $329, BioNTech at $348, as of market closing this past Friday and today's Sunday, Moderna closed at $294, and BioNTech closed at $287. The prices of both stocks have certainly dropped. And this is the look of the video that I posted on November 26. If you want details, you might want to look it up on my channel. Will I be posting new price targets in light of the price movement? I will talk about that in the next few minutes. Let's look at the volatility of Moderna and BioNTech. Certainly these two stocks have a lot of volatility. The candlestick chart here is Moderna, and the yellow line here is BioNTech, and the blue line here is QQQ, and SPY is a purple line. As you can see in the last 9 months, SPY and QQQ went up by about 20-22%, and BioNTech went up by a whopping 167%, certainly very impressive, and Moderna also went up by an impressive 105%. You can see how much volatility there is with Moderna and BioNTech. That's why if you invest in these two companies, you got to have the stomach for the right. To look at what's been driving these changes, which will enable us to understand how the prices might move for Moderna and BioNTech in the next few months. First of all, here, this big drop here at the end of September was mainly due to the announcement of the Merck COVID pill. And then the FDA approved the BioNTech vaccine for people ages 5 to 11. That's a small boost there because it was already widely anticipated, so it didn't really cause a big jump. And then the news about the Pfizer COVID pill came out, then it caused another big drop. And then after that, FDA okayed the Moderna booster shot for people age 18 and older. And that caused a small jumping stock price. And then after that, the news about the Omicron variant came out, and that caused a big jump. But then a few days later, it was reported that the symptoms of Omicron were not as severe as some of the other variants. And subsequent to that, the prices started to drop for both Moderna and BioNTech. Since then, we've been seeing a small recovery in the last four or five days. So where are these two stocks going to go in the near future? That's what we'll be talking about in the next few minutes. What do we know about the new variant, Omicron? First of all, it's highly transmittable. It is up to two to three times as likely to spread as a Delta variant. And it's got 50 mutations to it compared to the original strain of COVID-19 virus. And that's why a lot of scientists and doctors are worried that the Omicron variant might break through the vaccines we have available now. And indeed, there's been some evidence about vaccine breakthrough so far with regard to Omicron. We'll talk more about that. If there's a little bit of silver lining, Dr. Fauci said that the symptoms of Omicron are not nearly as severe as we thought it might be, which is nice, although it's a little bit too early to tell yet. In the UK in the meanwhile, the government is cautioning people about the potential peak in new hospitalization because of Omicron. Looks like so far the hospitalization rate has been rising in the UK. So definitely we're not out of danger yet. Pfizer announced that they will have the Omicron-based vaccine ready within 100 days. And they made the announcement at the beginning of December. So that will be probably approaching the end of February or beginning of March that the new Omicron-based vaccine could be ready for production, although it's going to be, of course, pending regulatory approval. Moderna is basically going at about the same pace. And that's why I believe the world would definitely still need both the Pfizer Bioantab vaccine as well as the Moderna vaccine as well as anything they might develop to counter any variants in the future. In the meanwhile, in Israel, it was found that the Pfizer booster shot has been able to boost significantly the immunity against the Omicron variant, whereas people receiving the two shots more than six months ago have already seen the immunity drop significantly, especially against the Omicron variant. And that's why the booster shot is quite necessary. Not just for Israel, but also for the rest of the world. From a business perspective, that's definitely great news for both Moderna and Bioantab. Moderna just announced that their booster shot is effective against the Omicron variant. When the booster shot was administered, the neutralizing antibody level against Omicron was found to be 37-fold compared to pre-boost levels. The company also said it would continue to develop an Omicron-specific booster. On December 17, CDC recommended the Moderna and Pfizer Bioantab vaccine over Johnson and Johnson's vaccine, mainly because of the potential danger of blood clotting related to the Johnson and Johnson vaccine. So that's been bad news for the Johnson and Johnson stock, and relatively good news for Moderna stock and Bioantab stock. In the meanwhile, Moderna has been involved in this dispute with the US government, particularly National Institute of Health, about who to name for some of their COVID-19 vaccine-related patents. At this point, Moderna is trying to pause the bill of dispute so that they can continue to maintain a productive working relationship with the US government. This is a summary table showing which vaccine has been approved for what age groups in the US or in Europe. The first two shots in the US have been approved for five years and older, EU five years and older, booster shot 18 and older, and EU 18 and older. So Moderna has been approved for the two shots for 18 and older in the US, 12 and older in the EU, and booster shot for 18 and older in the US and 18 and older for the EU. Johnson and Johnson, the approval is similar to Moderna vaccine for both USA and EU, although the booster shot for Johnson and Johnson has not been approved in the EU yet. AstraZeneca, the first two shots has been approved in the EU for 18 and older, but it has not been approved in the USA. And I have not heard anything about booster shot being approved in the US or EU yet for AstraZeneca. Overall, I would say that the Bioantab vaccine has an advantage over the other leading vaccines because the age coverage for Bioantab is wider because it goes all the way down to people who are five years and older. If you like what you've seen so far, I'd like to encourage you to click the like, subscribe and notification button that will enable you to receive notifications when I publish my next video. It will also encourage me to make more videos like this in the future. Thank you very much. Let's continue. We have a lot more to cover. As of November 19, the FDA approved the booster shots for Moderna and Bioantab for people who are 18 years of age and older, and also the US government approved the mixing and matching of vaccines. Because of this, a lot of people who previously received the Johnson and Johnson vaccine have been using Moderna and Bioantab as their booster shots, and that's been happening in the US as well as in Europe, which also gave similar approval for mixing and matching vaccines. Again, that's good business opportunities for both Moderna and Bioantab. We've been talking about the various COVID treatments, and some of them caused the prices of Moderna and Bioantab to drop in the last few weeks. This is a list of the COVID treatments approved by the leading nations. They are manufactured by large pharmaceutical companies such as Pfizer, Merck, Gilead, GlaxoSmithKline, Regeneron, and Eli Lilly. Their efficacies range from 30% to 90%, at least against the original variant. The prices per treatment range from $700 a treatment to more than $3,000 a treatment. The Merck treatment has been approved just in the UK, Gilead's treatment has been approved in the US, EU, and UK. The GlaxoSmithKline treatment has been approved in the US, EU, and UK, and Regeneron treatment has been approved in the US, EU, and UK. And Eli Lilly's treatment has been approved just in the US. I don't think these treatments will be in direct competition with the Moderna vaccine or the Bioantab vaccine because they will be used as a second line of defense against the virus. Recently, an article came out saying that the Regeneron treatment and the Eli Lilly treatment have limited effects against the Omicron variant. We don't know much yet about the effectiveness of the Merck, Gilead, or Glaxo treatment against the Omicron variant. We'll find out more about that, hopefully in the next few days. In the meanwhile, Moderna has experienced some headwind because of the supposedly increased risk of heart inflammation that a few countries have advised against to use the Moderna vaccine on male aged 30 or younger. These countries include Sweden, Denmark, Finland, Norway, France, and Germany. In the meanwhile, Moderna has defended its position rigorously and the chief medical officer said that they have data showing that the heart inflammation problem is not really that severe. It's only 13.3 cases out of 100,000 cases, which is indeed a very small ratio, although it's a little bit higher than the situation for Pfizer. In the meanwhile, they claim that Moderna is a lot more effective against the virus compared to the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine. What they're saying is that the disadvantages are very small compared to the advantages of the Moderna vaccine. Let's hope that Moderna will prevail, especially in those countries that are worried about the heart inflammation problems. If Moderna can overcome that negative publicity, the price will be a lot higher in the future. I'll be monitoring this very carefully. Let's look at the COVID cases in a few countries. First of all, in the US, we can see a resurgence of new COVID cases recently because of relaxation of the various restrictions in public places and also because of the homeocron variant. And then if you look at UK, which is somewhat representative of the rest of Europe, especially Western Europe, there's a quick surge in new COVID cases in the last few days. And that's very alarming. Israel, that's a good picture. They had these three peaks and then recently it's been under control. I'll talk a little bit more about what's happening in Israel that caused them to be so successful in pushing back the virus. And then in South Africa, where Omicron was discovered back in November, definitely there's a big jump in new COVID cases. If you look at the vaccination rate, the US 72.8% of the population have received the first shot, 61.4% fully vaccinated and 18.1% have received the booster shot and that's not a high percentage. Whereas UK, it's about the same for the first shot and fully vaccinated, but the booster shot percentage actually higher. And why did they have this big jump? I will talk about that in the next slide. Stay tuned. Israel, they have very high percentage of people receiving the booster shot already and that really helped. But also they have very strict procedures such as wearing masks and they enforce a vaccine passport and all these very stringent measures definitely helped them contain the virus. Whereas in South Africa, the vaccination rates are still low and the booster shot rate at this point is almost non-existent because they just recently started to administer the vaccines to their population. With regard to UK, why are there cases so high especially in the last few days? First of all, people in the UK reportedly are less likely to be wearing masks compared to some of the other countries and they have relaxed their restrictions sooner than the rest of the Western European countries and because they started administering the vaccines a little bit earlier than even the US and the rest of Europe, the effectiveness of the original vaccines had been fading after the first five to six months. At this point, they really need to be administering the booster shots a lot more people. Worldwide, we see this resurgence of new cases. We are at wave number four already and in the meanwhile, unfortunately, the death rate has been very high as well as of December 18. There have been 6,720 deaths worldwide and that's definitely too high. That means the world would need to have a lot more vaccines. Why do I think Moderna and BioNTech will continue to recover? I will not read every single bullet point. You can freeze frame to look at the details. I just highlighted two most important points. First of all, COVID treatments are not in direct competition with the vaccines. The treatments are second line of defense and besides they are expensive and people shouldn't risk getting sick just waiting for the treatment. It's much easier to get the vaccine and get the protection. The treatments are only the second line of defense. It took only about one and a half year for the Alpha strain to mutate to the Delta variant and I think it took only about six to eight months for the Delta variant to mutate into the very contagious Omicron variant. Fortunately the Omicron variant is not very severe, but how long would it take? Maybe another four to six months before a very contagious and very severe variant is evolved and in that situation the world would definitely need to have more and newer vaccines from both Moderna and BioNTech. This is unfortunate for the world but from a business perspective it's definitely going to be a boost for both Moderna and BioNTech and that's why I'm very bullish about the two companies. I really have mastered this mRNA technology which will be the key technology that will help this world against the COVID virus. Let's look at the valuation of the two companies. In my last video I did a calculation based on what the company predicted when they announced their third quarter earnings. Moderna predicted that the 2021 revenue would be $16.5 billion. For 2022 I expect the sales to increase because of the new variants and because of the booster shots. From these assumptions I predicted the company to be worth $253 a share in 2021 $392 a share for 2022 and $392 a share for 2023. At this point I am staying with my calculations. In other words I stand by my prediction of Moderna reaching $370 a share by the end of February 2022. With these numbers their sales volume would be just $1.5 billion doses. About six months ago Moderna management actually announced that they had a plan to be producing as many as $2-3 billion doses by 2022. So my estimate here is fairly conservative. As for BioNTech, again I am using the company's prediction for 2021 at $19.4 billion of revenues and then for their sales for 2022 I expect their volume to be just a little bit higher than the 2021 volume. With these assumptions I arrive at the price targets of $496 through $498 for 2021 to 2023. At this point I am standing by my prediction of $400 a share by the end of February 2022. Let's look at the professional analyst's opinions about Moderna. Here I am comparing the information from my last video which was published on November 26th to this video which is published on December 19th. And the price of Moderna dropped from $329 to $294 mainly because of the news related to the Merck and Pfizer COVID pills. My target remains at $370 to be achieved by the end of February 2022. Yahoo Business maintains its whole rating and keeps the same high target although the average target has been lowered a little bit from $304 to $301 and the low target of $86 remains the same. TipRanks.com maintains its whole rating, the high target stays the same, the average target goes up a little bit from $298 to $311 and the low target goes up from $86 to $135. CAM Money maintains its buy rating with the same high target, the median target went down a little bit from $325 to $311 and the low target remains in $86. Lewis Nabilier maintains his overall A rating which is a strong buy. For BioNTech, the price also went down from $348 to $287. My price target remains the same at $400 to be accomplished by the end of February 2022. Yahoo Business maintains its whole rating and the high target stays the same at $347, the average target went up a little bit from $313 to $315 and the low target went up just by a dollar from $178 to $179. TipRanks.com maintains its moderate buy rating, the high target goes from $450 to $400, average target drops a little bit from $307 to $298 and the low target remains at $180. CAM Money maintains its whole rating, the high target goes from $427 down to $399, the median target goes from $310 down a little bit to $292 and the low target remains at $174. Lewis Nabilier maintains his overall A rating which is a strong buy. Let's look at the charts. This is a daily chart from Moderna since the beginning of September. You can see that a triangular pattern is forming and typically with the triangular pattern when the price starts to approach the tip of the triangle it will break up or break down. At this point my prediction is that it will most likely break upwards because the world does need more Moderna vaccine as well as the BioNTech vaccine. If you look at ISI it was over so at this point and then sure enough right after that we see a rebound. For DMI it went bearish around the beginning of December, it's been bearish ever since although it's starting to turn bullish at this point. It's not entirely bullish yet whereas MACD just turned bullish as of last Friday. The resistance point will definitely be this blue dash line 50 days simple moving average which is about the same point with the middle of the bowling event 20 day moving average That's why 294 will be a very strong resistance point which is about where the market closes the last Friday. It's important that the price should break above this resistance point when the market opens on Monday. And then the next level of resistance point will be the 100 day moving average which coincides with the upper bowling event. And then of course the support point will be the 200 day moving average the red dash line at about 268 and the next level of support will be 234 the lower bowling event. The BioNTech chart is similar to Moderna's. We also see a triangular pattern although the price did break above the triangular pattern in the middle of November and then it went down after the news came out about Omicron not being too severe and then we see a recovery in the last four or five days. And because of the price recovery I bought more shares of BioNTech as of last Friday and I shared that information with my subscribers on Twitter. If you look at RSI we had an overboard situation here of course that's when the price reached an all-time high back in the beginning of August then it dropped quickly and then we had an oversold situation here and that's when the price started to recover a little bit. For DMI it's been bearish since the end of November and then at this point about couple days ago it was trying to cross over to the bullish side but then it went down again although if you look at MACD it turned bearish at the same time the end of November but now it's in the process of turning bullish and that's why I bought more shares. My strategy is that if the support line from the bottom of a triangle is going to hold the price will bounce up then I will be seeing good profit for my investment on Friday. However if it turns south that's when I'm going to sell the shares quickly and my losses will be quite minimal. That's one of the strategies I use when I do string trading. When I see a very clear support point I will buy shares expecting the support point hold. The next resistance point will be the middle of the Bologna ban which coincides with the 100 day simple moving average and they're at about 309 and then the next level resistance will of course be 364 the upper Bologna ban which is about the historical max year achieved on November 25th, 26th the short term max and then for support point the next level support will be this line which is a 50 day simple moving average at about 280 and then the next level support will be at the lower Bologna ban and 200 day simple moving average at 247. Let me recap my price predictions which are the same as my predictions back in November. I expect Moderna to reach $370 a share and BioNTech to reach $400 a share by the end of February 2022 so this past Friday Moderna closed at $294 and BioNTech closed at $287. What are my strategies? As usual I've been holding some Moderna and BioNTech shares for the long term I've been swing trading the rest of the shares I'm definitely very bullish on both companies. Recently I sold BioNTech shares on November 24th through November 29th and then again on December 8th and December 14th mostly at prices about $300 a share and meanwhile I bought BioNTech shares on December 6th and December 17th at about $285 a share so definitely I was able to sell high and buy low I've been very fortunate on those moves and I share these trades with my Twitter subscribers. In general I would sell when a price fails to get support from a support level or when it pulls back from a resistance level or whenever news develops and usually I will buy when a price bounces up from a support level like what happened on Friday and when it breaks above a resistance level or when positive news develops. I'll be mindful of the broad market and any news developments related to the company and I will update my subscribers by way of my Twitter messages. At this point I'd like to remind you to subscribe to my Twitter account which is DanMocketL in addition to subscribing to my YouTube channel. For example on Friday I tweeted my subscribers that I bought BioNTech shares and I shared this news development about CDC recommending Pfizer and BioNTech vaccine and Moderna vaccine over J&J shots for adults. If you like what you've seen so far I'd like to remind you again to click the like, subscribe and notification button. As usual I would very much appreciate your comments, questions and suggestions. I'd like to remind you that I'm not a financial advisor I share my stock trading strategies and analyses for entertainment and educational purposes only. If you want to buy or sell stocks you should make your own decisions and you should consult with your financial advisor before you do so. This wraps up my video for now. I will chat with you again in the next few days. In the meanwhile I'd like to wish you the very best of luck with your financial investments.