 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network Interesting night and majorly baseball or tonight I see just one money line showing value based on my numbers and that's a lot less than usual So we're gonna break down the money line and also talk about three strikeout props I like and a dinger prop actually did find one I like for today potentially a same game partly you can whip up together not typically my style But I think for tonight it actually does make a lot of sense So a very unique slate for me for baseball for tonight just following where the numbers are going Hopefully getting you some winning bets We're gonna dive on in and break down all that for today right now. Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonos. I am a senior writer and analyst for a number fire Here to give you a preview of Monday across majorly baseball breaking down a money line three strikeout props and a home run prop I like for today over at Fandall sportsbook Well, I've been to all that here in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the covering the spread podcast feed wherever you get your podcast coming up later On this week branding and doula is gonna preview the Charles Schwab challenge to talk some basketball with us. That's on Tuesday We've got an Indianapolis 500 preview coming up Thursday with Dr. Nick Giffen of the action network will talk about a coke It's a country with him as well. I'll talk some Monaco for formula one. It's a big week in racing Big weekend sports in general should be a fun We'll talk some basketball of course with a couple elimination games coming up later on this week So to get all these podcasts as they are posted make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your Podcasts anything like what you hear leave us a five star rating Apple podcast to a check us out over on the Fandall YouTube page the NBA playoffs are still shugging along and you can get in on the action right now from first tip with Fandall right now All customers get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right Just place a 3-plus leg same game parlay or same game parlay plus on any NBA playoff game You'll get bonus bet back if you don't win There's no better place to bet all the playoff action than America's number one sportsbook Fandall app and get a no sweat same game parlay every weekend of the NBA playoffs Fandall official sports betting partner of the NBA must be 21 plus and president select states Fandall is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC Bonus issued is knowledge robber bonus bets that expire seven days after receipt Restrictions applies to your terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fandall.com Rg and Massachusetts hope is here gambling helpline ma.org or call 800 3 2 7 50 50 for 24 7 support in New York 1 8 7 7 8 hoping wire text open Y in Arizona 1 800 next step or text next step to 5 3 3 4 2 in Connecticut 1 8 8 8 7 8 9 7 7 7 7 or visit cc pg.org says chat in Indiana 109 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1 800 5 2 2 4700 we're in Kansas KS gambling health calm Louisiana is 1 8 7 7 770 stop in Maryland empty gambling health org in West Virginia go to 1 800 gambler net Now as mentioned just one MLB money line I like for tonight despite there being a good number of games available for today And that one money line is one that I am a little bit uncertain on because frankly it involves projecting out a pitcher stretching out to be a Starter while he's been a reliever for this entire year that is on the angels and minus 108 against the Red Sox that starter We're talking about here for the angels Jaime Maria. He is moving rotation chase still set moving back into bullpen and Looking at Maria It is always tougher to be a starter than a reliever because you're forced to go deeper in games Which means your stuff is not going to be as good But looking at Maria in long relief this year. He has been really really good The velocity and sourcing fast balls up from what it was last year even when he was a reliever then to in that time He's held his opponents to a 24.2% hard hit rate So very good hard contact number his ERA is below 2 It's not going to stick there as the sample expands But that hard contact rate is impressive now again The stretching out thing is a big concern because we have not seen him go Super super long this year, but he has the times gone longer than 50 pitches his max this year is 58 And if we're thinking about Maria for tonight, he's probably gonna max out around 70 or so so if he does struggle transitioning from a reliever to a starter We might not see it tonight just because I pitch count is not going to be that much longer than what it's been So far this year So that's why I feel okay on the Angel side of things on the Red Sox side of things They're starting Tanner Hauke Hauke is due for some positive regression his ERA Does not represent how well he has pitched so far this year So I think that that the results the surface low numbers do undersell Tanner Hauke a bit here but Look at this matchup It's Maria in a situation where I have an okay amount of confidence for him in the short term to be Okay, as this like transitioning guy from the bullpen to the rotation. I think you can handle that So to me, I feel okay in this money line at minus one away I do show value there are the angels side of things good offense good enough offense at least Red Sox are good offense too, but with this game being in Anaheim I think the angels on the right side here So the angels money line minus one away the one money line I do feel okay about for today as mentioned at three strikeout props Let's start with one standalone strikeout prop that is in the Tigers versus Royals game I want to go towards Michael Lorenzen and Lorenzen his over four and a half strikeouts is plus 112 and I've got a projected for four point nine three strikeouts, which is right in that precipice where It kind of wants up as a coin flip if you look back at my projections guys in a similar range of Lorenzen in terms of the strikeout Projections they've gone over this number of 53 percent of time, which means that at plus 112 I do think there is value on the over here for Lorenzen He is a guy who has not been in the rotation this full year at some time where he was not in the rotation to begin the year And Lorenzen is now been fully stretched out going hundred plus pitches or 90 plus pitches for just four starts Despite having that small sample of him being stretched out He is actually gone over this number over four and a strikeout three separate tons now One of those was before he was stretched out and like you know That is you know a downside because it means not in the most representative sample But it also means he went over this number before he was fully stretched out Which I think it should be a good thing in terms of feeling solid about him here The Royals active roster has a 25 percent strikeout rate against righties this year and just a 6.3 percent walk rate And that combination means you can get strikeouts against them, but they're not patient Which means they're not gonna be wasting pitches trying to get those strikeouts I can allow you to go deeper in games and Lorenzen gets a lot of leash his pitch count has been like in the upper 90s reaches past four starts even in 101 of those and When you have and if an opposing team that allows you to be efficient, they will strike out they don't walk and You got a guy that goes deep in games getting the two five strikeouts is not that hard of a sell So again 4.93 projected strikeouts for Lorenzen here that is not technically over four and a half but You tend to see guys hit five strikeouts about half the time in that range and we're getting plus money over here at plus 112 so to me I think that makes a lot of sense So Michael Lorenzen over four and a strikeouts against the Royals a bet I'm willing to make for tonight The final three bets for tonight are all in the same game I'm gonna talk about the beach individually first because that's typically how I want to play things and then we'll talk about the Possibility of potentially pairing them together via a same game partly over a fangirl sports book Let's start things off here with a couple of Strikeout props though both unders on Kyle Muller and Louise Castillo Louise Castillo is under seven and a strikeouts is plus 110 That's a really big number and I get it because Castillo goes deep in games is a very good picture He is at home. He's facing the A's so I understand why this number is as high in it as it is But even when you account for those things account for the home The fact needs to home account for how deep he goes in games account for the A's. I Still have Castillo projected for a six point nine strikeouts tonight So even while I'm high on Castillo, this number is pretty message massive We've got eight starts on Castillo since he cut back on his sinker usage and in that time Castillo has it the over here in three out of eight games Which is not a bad number. I know it's you know, you need to be more than that to justify having plus money on the under but all Three of the times where he's hit the over come at home and that's in just five home starts So I don't think this number is outrageous to have him at seven and a half I think that's kind of like fangirl safeguarding itself and if they put it six and a half people are probably gonna take the over there pretty easily but There's always paths to unders when the number is this big you need eight strikeouts for Castillo to hit the over here You're saying he'll get there more than half the time. I think that is a good situation for us taking under here It's not fun to bet an under on a guy who is a Legitimately good pitcher in a very good matchup at home It will not be a fun sweat by any means if you got three strikeouts in the first and I could write this bet off Right away, I would not be shocked but I think Castillo under seven and a half plus one ten is the right side in that one Also as mentioned do you like Kyle Muller under for an a strikeouts? That's minus one sixteen right now at Fandall Sportsbook And I understand also why this number is high because it is a high strikeout matchup for Muller The Mariners strikeout a bunch against lefties But again my numbers know that even with my numbers accounting for the high strikeouts nature of the Mariners I still got Muller projected for three point four four strikeouts That is well below the five he would need to hit the over on this number across nine starts Muller's hit the over on this number just twice and In all the games where he went below it so a seven game sample going under he had three or fewer strikeouts in all those So he wasn't getting close to this number in all the unders He was getting five and six in the two games we did hit the over now We could see Muller spike in a high strikeout spot. That's always possible But I think this this number is kind of over accounting For the matchup and I'm okay with that. So to me Muller under for an a strikeouts Which is minus one sixteen. I think there's value that I wanted to take that personally So both unders in this game castio under seven half plus one ten Muller under four and a half minus one sixteen I think both those are good bets right now the home run prop I like in this game is on tail scar Hernandez and tail scar Hernandez is four to one facing off with Muller Muller does get ground balls and That could talk you out of this here, but let's a lot of hard contact and after Muller leaves tail scar Hernandez is facing the ace bullpen that typically is going to be a Recipe for some dingers. They've been better recently but still not a good bullpen by any means I also think that Hernandez is due for some positive aggression here He has a 340 X Woba so far this year according to baseball's event where it's actual over is 305 So about 35 points below his expected mark his barrel rate still 12.9% his ice so against lefty specifically this year 317 very small sample But last year with 363 it's been above 330 for I think like three consecutive years before this year. So He kills lefties. So when Muller is out there should do well gets the face Bullpen after that. I think there are a lot of factors allowing us to get to Hernandez at four to one to hit a dinger I don't typically like numbers that short on home run props But I think in this specific spot, it is okay and as mentioned all three of these bets are in the same game So typically my philosophy is I don't like doing the same game parlays because I need every leg to Show value individually and I would like there to be some correlation between those bets in order to pair them together Because I don't want to juice up a bet and have them working against each other now in theory the Muller under and the Castillo under kind of do work a bit against each other because You know if Castillo gets lead they could let me go deeper in the game stuff like that So they could work against each other, but the Hernandez home run prop does actually correlate well with the under on Muller So this actually is a situation where I'm okay if you want to Consider pairing them together So Hernandez's home run prop is four to one as mentioned the unders on the strikeout props of which you can put in here cast Muller under four and a half minus one sixteen Castillo under seven and a half plus one ten if you pair those three together the odds are plus sixteen sixty two so Between sixteen and seventeen to one It's there for a reason so as always if you decide to pair these together do so responsibly scale back your Bet size because the odds as hits are pretty low And like as someone who bets a lot of NASCAR I know that I don't really expect a sixteen to one bet to win on a given night the implied odds that are 5.7% So if we assume that Fandall is dead on with this they're telling you that the odds this bet hits are 5.7% so keep that number in mind if you decide to bet it saying there's a 95 almost percent chance this bet does not win But I think that they all have value individually I think that the Muller under and the Hernandez strikeout prop do play pretty well together So this actually does fit the criteria for me where I am okay Pairing those together and riding that way. It's not going to be something I do super often personally just because the way I like to play things But I think in this specific situation where I happen to find three bets in the same game that I like and they play Decently well together. I think it does make sense if you want to pair this together plus 1662 over at Fandall Sportsbook for that again Scale responsibly given that the odds that bet hit that bet hits are very low And you want to keep that in mind when allocating your bankroll? That's gonna wrap up the MOB discussion for today again angels money line minus 108 Lorenzen over 4 NAS strikeouts plus 112 Castillo under 7 s strikeouts Plus 110 I said Lorenzen over it is over 4 and a half plus 112 Castillo under 7 and a half plus 110 Muller under 4 NAS strikeouts minus 116 Hernandez to home run hit a homer 4 to 1 and again if you want to pair those together 1662 over at Fandall Sportsbook now before we wrap up for today We do got do got to go back through last week show and recap the bet recommendations here that we discussed and it all starts with The Preakness stakes Christina Blacker of Fandall TV came on to preview the preakness and you can find her on Twitter at Christina FDTV and Christina nailed it. She when we talked we were talking about the post draw and she mentioned that it was an okay draw for mage That was like fine She thought the big winner the big takeaway was a national treasure to be on the inside and that'd be good for them wearing blinders Get off to a good pace and potentially not get caught That's kind of how things played out to a tee so Christina got the good read there A national treasure got the win in the race by a nose Fantastic call by Christina. They were four to one when we talked National treasure was they did shorten on Saturday morning But hopefully got that we talked four to one the number on National treasure to win the preakness great call by Christina check her out on Twitter at Christina FDTV Fantastic thoughts as always from her and check out all of her work and her colleagues work over a Fandall TV as well We're brandy can do a lot to preview the PGA championship find Brandon on Twitter I could do a 13 and check out all of his golf work over at numberfire.com Brooks Kepka getting the win and Not on Brandon's card for this week, but Kepka Miss golfed really well did get a threat from Victor Hauvin there down the stretch on Sunday Which made things pretty interesting But Hauvin had one bad hole that kind of sealed things off for Kepka to win his fifth major at the age of I think 33 Which is pretty nuts the outright some brandy where as Andrew Schaafley 17 to 1 Patrick Cantley 20 to 1 calm or a cow at 34 to 1 pretty weird field with the way a lot of the High-end guys performed obviously Kepka won Rory is pretty good Sheffler was good, but a lot of guys like rom underperformed So bid on in that sense no rights there the top 10 that was Tony Fina plus 210 Fino did not make that and then the matchup that some JM minus 118 over Tiro Hatton in this the cut whereas hadn't finished 15 So couldn't get that one done there, but Brandon's given us a lot of winners throughout the year So looking to get back on track with that again tomorrow's talk about the Charles Schwab challenge Austin Cass was our guest on to preview match week 37 in the EPL You can check out Austin on Twitter at Austin Cass you can find his work over at numberfire as well We still have one left to go It's out of the ESAC to score today at minus 105, but on Saturday Austin had the Wolves over one-half goals of plus 164 They scored in the 34th minute So they had more than half the game to have the match to hit the over there But couldn't punch another one in so no hit on that one other one was brightened over two and a half Goals of minus 111 when we talk now Austin had said he wanted to see their line up before betting it But by then it had gotten out to minus 150 So it was minus 111 we talked minus 150 or so at close Either way it did hit they won three to one over Southampton So hopefully you bet it right away But if you did follow Austin's recommendation hold off to bet it You got it minus 150 there and you did get the win there So not the same payout, but I think Austin's thought process of they played a game Thursday Playing against Sunday might not play the regular guys. I respect that thought process. So I probably would have gone Austin's way personally so minus 150 but still a cash regardless on that one as for my stuff in The racing side of things the truck series on Saturday I Christopher Bell the win at six to one Ross Chastain top five at plus 225 and Stuart frees in top five at four to one Bell in a very good truck, but he got some damage He was trying to cut down and he hit his left front fender on a truck And he was Byron as he was trying to get down when had a bad pit stop late was not competitive after that So that one didn't work frees in and Chastain weren't quite there either So no dice in the truck series on that one in the all-star open race I said I had value and tie against to win at four to one and I didn't say to benefit I said I wanted to wait until the pit crew competition because I thought there was a shot That Gibbs might not qualify super well for the all-star open Instead his pick crew is the fastest of the entire field. They won $100,000 for it and give start of the pole So that was good for the if you had taken Ty Gibbs at four to one to win But he shortened to plus 210 after that and I couldn't show value there I'd gives a 27% I think to win the all-star open so I wound up not getting him because I Had to wait I want to wait for the end that inflection point where he would didn't have a lot of control on Friday night to see if he'd like them instead. He shortened a lot and he shortened too much So I couldn't get Ty gives my card So that was a bummer But then it was less of a bummer because Ty Gibbs actually finished second in the race He had the best car I think pretty clearly but he had gotten to Michael McDowell early in the race McDowell took on verge of that and Effectively just blocked Gibbs when Gibbs was trying to lap later on that allowed Josh Barry to get past him And Josh Barry went on to win the all-star open So it was a bummer to miss out on good CLV when I had the right read on Ty Gibbs But it would have been a losing bet. So no complaints. That's the other side of the thing we're talking about the Austin's bet where sometimes you wait for a reason and sometimes Waiting fights you and you miss out on a good bet or you get a good bet at a worse number but sometimes it actually does save you so You know, I still think Ty Gibbs is a good bet at 4-1 I don't think he's good that a plus 2-10 and I think that's kind of the way things play out So no bet recommendation in the all-star open and the all-star main event the two bet recommendations were Kyle Larson 7-1 and Ross Chastain a 14-1 I got a lucky win here that I probably did not deserve what happened was Larson and Chastain both had issues during their heat race and they qualified poorly So I think Larson was 16th and Chastain was 18th. So they started in the back. There was a caution about 17 laps in and teams had limited tires in this race and the track where there's a lot of tire fall off and Larson's team decided we think this race is gonna be they have a lot of green flag runs And if they if that happens our advantage is having fresh tires So Larson's team pitted a lot of other teams did not Because they wanted to keep a fresh set of tires in the pits The race went green pretty much the I think that was the only actual caution outside of the competition caution the entire race So Larson went from dead last because he was also speeding up here road to first in that opening stage And then ran wire-to-wire on the open after the competition caution as well So Larson Got very fortunate. I think his car was good. I'm not sure if it was good at like as good as it looked I think there were other cars that were better than him, but once he got track position. He was nuts. So Larson you could have gotten a 10 to 1 on Saturday, which is why I think this is a bad bet on my behalf at 7 to 1 But sometimes you get lucky and I'm not gonna complain about getting lucky because we've had plenty of unlucky things happen, too specifically Larson You know getting wrecked in the last well wrecking himself in the last lap We get with Denny Hamlin and then also and that the Dover race is Ross Chastain wrecking a lap car So I've had bad luck with Larson I'll take some good luck here and cash the 7 to 1 didn't deserve it, but I'll take it either way so not a bad week on the show with the Preakness and the Larson win, but We'll see what we can do for this week Hopefully starting things off on a high note with the MLB for tonight That is all that we have here for today on the show back once again tomorrow to talk to you Brandon Can do a little about the Charles Schwab challenge We'll talk some MBA with Brandon as well getting his thoughts on that to get that as it is posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast also check us out over on the fangirl YouTube page If you like what you hear give us a thumbs up on YouTube or give us a five star rating over an app of podcast If you've got any questions for me I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis JMS a NNES you can also follow the fendal podcast network at fendal podcast Want to thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB bets for tonight We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to talk more golf. This has been covering the spread right here on the fendal podcast network